10月28日，厦门国贸涨5.1%，截至发稿，报6.80元/股，成交2.87亿元，换手率2.01%，总市值145.36亿 元。 资料显示，厦门国贸集团股份有限公司位于福建省厦门市湖里区仙岳路4688号国贸中心，成立日期1996 年12月24日，上市日期1996年10月3日，公司主营业务涉及供应链管理、房地产经营、金融服务。主营 业务收入构成为：供应链管理业务99.63%，健康科技业务0.36%，其他板块业务0.02%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 交银中证红利低波动100指数A（020156）基金经理为蔡铮、邵文婷。 截至发稿，蔡铮累计任职时间12年309天，现任基金资产总规模114.04亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 170.54%， 任职期间最差基金回报-87.04%。 邵文婷累计任职时间4年183天，现任基金资产总规模126.23亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报48.45%， 任 职期间最差基金回报-28.73%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.96 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 20 million yuan, a significant decline of 93.9% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 5.5 percentage points to 10.7% in the first three quarters, impacting net profit growth [6]. - The company has a robust pipeline of projects, including Tianjian Tianjiao, Guangming, and Ruifu, which are expected to support future performance [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21.785 billion yuan, 22.002 billion yuan, and 22.662 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.37 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.44 yuan [5][7]. - The company’s net profit is projected to recover to 690 million yuan in 2025, 750 million yuan in 2026, and 820 million yuan in 2027, with a net profit margin gradually improving [5][7]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 76.5% in 2024 to 74.0% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively engaged in urban renewal projects, with a total of 31 billion yuan in sales in the first three quarters of 2025, although this represents a decline of 36.2% year-on-year [6]. - The company has successfully issued medium-term notes totaling 11.9 billion yuan in the third quarter, maintaining a smooth financing channel [6]. - The company is positioned as a resource integration platform for Shenzhen construction, with expectations for significant growth in the construction sector under the backdrop of the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [6].

人民财讯10月28日电，中国房地产业协会发布通知称，中国房地产业协会定于2025年11月14—15日在深 圳市举办"房地产转型发展法治论坛暨第七届房企法务年会"。会议同期将举办中国房地产业协会法律工 作委员会成立会。本次会议以"破局与重塑：法治护航房地产转型发展"为主题，深入探讨房地产法律领 域的前沿动态、交流企业风险防控与纠纷解决案例，助力行业健康可持续发展。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for stock index futures is oscillating upward, for stock index options is oscillating, and for treasury bond futures is oscillating upward [9][10][11]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is generally optimistic. Stock index futures are boosted by optimistic risk preferences, stock index options show a positive sentiment, and treasury bond futures are expected to see the central bank restart treasury bond trading [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Optimistic risk preferences boost the market. The base spreads, inter - period spreads, and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed. The rise is driven by positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and overseas technology mapping. The configuration suggests using dividends + IM long positions. The outlook is oscillating upward [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The option market sentiment is optimistic. The trading volume of each option variety has exceeded 10 billion, and the sentiment index has strengthened. Trading should follow the market, and the strategy shifts from selling options to buying options. Suggestions include setting up bull spread combinations or hedging equity positions. The outlook is oscillating [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank will restart treasury bond trading. The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed up. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased, and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is beneficial to the bond market in the short term. The fourth - quarter mid - to - late bullish trend may start, and the bond market is expected to oscillate upward. Operational suggestions include trend strategies, hedging strategies, basis strategies, and curve strategies [10][12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On October 27, 2025, China's September industrial enterprise profit rate for large - scale industries reached 21.6% year - on - year (single - month), and the eurozone's September seasonally - adjusted money supply M3 annual rate was 2.8%. On October 29, the US will release the September seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index monthly rate, and on October 30, the US will announce the October federal funds rate target upper limit. On October 31, Japan will release the September unemployment rate, China will release the October official manufacturing PMI, and the eurozone will release the October harmonized CPI annual rate (un - seasonally adjusted preliminary value) [13]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Regulatory Policy**: The CSRC issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - Sized Investors in the Capital Market", introducing 23 practical measures [14]. - **Sino - US Trade**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, emphasizing the importance of Sino - US relations [14]. - **Northbound Funds**: The CSRC issued the "Work Plan for Optimizing the Qualified Overseas Investor System", aiming to enhance the attractiveness of the system to overseas long - term funds [15]. - **AI**: Qualcomm launched AI chips to compete with NVIDIA in the data center market, with AI200 and AI250 expected to be commercially available in 2026 and 2027 respectively [15]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: No specific data content is provided in the report [16]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: No specific data content is provided in the report [20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: No specific data content is provided in the report [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries [1][11][21]. Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4]. - Apparent steel consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [1][6]. - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [1]. Chemical and Textile Industries - The soda ash operating rate remained stable at 84.9%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11][12]. - PTA operating rate increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14]. - The operating rate for polyester filament remained stable at 91%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [11]. Construction Industry - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with the nationwide grinding operating rate increasing by 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4% [21][22]. - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [21][24]. - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased, up 1.2% week-on-week [21]. Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass production remained stable week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [31]. - Asphalt operating rate increased by 1.5% week-on-week [31]. Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a daily average transaction area down 5.7% week-on-week [40]. - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with rail freight volume up 1.8 percentage points to 1.5% [44][49]. - Passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59]. Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week [74]. - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.4% week-on-week [82][83].

Core Insights - Hainan's GDP for the first three quarters of the year reached 568.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [1] - The primary industry contributed 23.4% to economic growth, with an increase of 5% year-on-year, while the secondary and tertiary industries contributed 13.7% and 62.9% respectively [1] - Industrial production in Hainan showed robust growth, with an industrial added value of 66.52 billion yuan, growing by 10%, surpassing the national average by 3.9% [2] Economic Performance - The overall economic operation in Hainan is stable, with a month-on-month recovery trend observed, peaking in September [1] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors achieved an added value of 122.51 billion yuan, growing by 5.3%, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the national average [1] Sector Contributions - The financial sector's added value reached 39.90 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, slightly above the national average [2] - The real estate sector, along with resident services and education, showed growth rates of 4.1%, 11.4%, and 5.4% respectively, all exceeding the overall GDP growth rate [2] Consumer Trends - Social retail sales in Hainan increased by 8.6% year-on-year, driving the wholesale and retail sector's added value up by 7.4% [2] - The transportation, warehousing, and postal sectors also saw a growth of 9%, outperforming the national average by 3.2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall trading activity in the market has continued to decline, with certain sectors maintaining high trading heat, while the investment sentiment shows signs of fluctuation due to net selling from northbound capital [1][10]. Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inverted" interest rates between China and the US has narrowed. The nominal and real interest rates of 10-year US Treasury bonds have remained unchanged or decreased, with inflation expectations rising. Offshore dollar liquidity has loosened, and the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and relatively loose, with the yield curve spread (10Y-1Y) narrowing [2]. Trading Heat, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading heat has declined, with the volatility of major indices also decreasing. Sectors such as real estate, textile and apparel, construction, electricity and public utilities, banking, and coal have trading heat above the 80th percentile, while the volatility of communication and electronics is also above the 80th historical percentile [3]. Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity include electronics, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, communications, and machinery, while sectors like consumer services, light industry, chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals have seen a month-on-month increase in research heat [4]. Analyst Forecasts - Profit forecasts for the years 2025 and 2026 for the entire A-share market have been raised. Specifically, profit forecasts for sectors such as finance, non-ferrous metals, machinery, coal, and electric power have been increased. Index-wise, profit forecasts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and ChiNext have been raised, while the CSI 500 has seen mixed adjustments. In terms of investment style, profit forecasts for large-cap, mid-cap growth, and value stocks have been increased, while small-cap growth stocks have been downgraded [5]. Northbound Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with a net selling trend overall. The trading pattern has shifted between "net buying - net selling - net buying." In terms of the top 10 active stocks, the buying and selling ratio in sectors like communications, non-ferrous metals, and banking has increased, while it has decreased in automotive, non-bank financials, and electronics. Northbound capital has mainly net bought in sectors like pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals, while net selling occurred in electronics, communications, and food and beverage sectors [6]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has slightly rebounded, with a net purchase of 27 billion yuan last week. The main net purchases were in sectors like electronics, communications, and non-bank financials, while net selling occurred in automotive, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors. The financing buy-in ratio has notably increased in communications, home appliances, and non-bank financials [7]. Dragon and Tiger List Trading - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list has continued to decline, although the total trading amount on this list as a percentage of total A-share trading has increased. Sectors such as coal, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals have a relatively high and rising proportion of trading on the Dragon and Tiger list [8]. Active Equity Fund Positioning - The active equity funds have seen a decrease in positions, with net inflows into sectors like communications, electronics, and computers, while reducing positions in home appliances, banking, and food and beverage sectors. The correlation between active equity funds and large/mid-cap growth and small-cap value has increased. New equity fund establishment has seen a rebound in scale, with active and passive fund sizes decreasing and increasing respectively. ETFs have experienced net redemptions, primarily in personal ETFs [9][10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of living in deflationary regions while investing in inflationary assets, highlighting the potential benefits of such a strategy [1][2][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - Inflation benefits asset prices, leading to capital gains, while deflation can lower living costs [1]. - The article contrasts the experiences of individuals in high inflation countries versus those in deflationary environments, emphasizing the advantages of the latter for investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 2: Case Studies - Switzerland and Japan are cited as examples where residents benefit from living in deflationary environments while investing in inflationary assets [5][7][8]. - Swiss residents have historically invested in USD assets or emerging market funds, capitalizing on the appreciation of the Swiss franc [7]. - Japanese high-net-worth individuals have shifted their wealth to overseas investments post-bubble, favoring US bonds and stocks [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Successful investment strategies require cross-border asset allocation, stable living costs, and detachment from local inflation [6][11]. - The article outlines seven categories of inflationary assets, including precious metals, commodities, high pricing power stocks, emerging market equities, inflation-linked bonds, rental real estate, and policy-driven assets like technology stocks in China [12][19][21]. Group 4: Inflation as an Investment Principle - Inflation is presented as a fundamental principle that underpins investment returns, with historical perspectives from notable investors like Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett emphasizing its significance [22].

Market Overview - On October 27, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.19%, the STAR 50 gained 1.5%, the CSI 1000 was up by 1.03%, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.98%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.05% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on October 27 were telecommunications (+3.22%), electronics (+2.96%), comprehensive (+2.68%), non-ferrous metals (+2.39%), and steel (+1.92%). The worst-performing sectors were media (-0.95%), food and beverage (-0.2%), and real estate (-0.11%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on October 27 was 23,566 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.873 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The report focuses on the real estate sector, emphasizing a preference for "light" and "good" investments [5] - The market view indicates that developer valuations may fluctuate due to policy impacts [5] - There is a shift in recommendation for 2026, moving away from developers to favor management and property operation businesses [5] - The driving factors include ongoing pressure on the real estate industry's fundamentals, with companies having low debt and strong cash flow presenting a higher safety margin [5] - The report suggests a divergence from the market's focus on residential development, advocating for investment opportunities in sub-sectors of real estate [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, marking a new 10-year high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.51% to 13489.40, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.98% to 3234.45 [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (up 3.22%), Electronics (up 2.96%), and Non-ferrous Metals (up 2.39%) [2] - Conversely, sectors such as Media (-0.95%), Food and Beverage (-0.20%), and Real Estate (-0.11%) lagged behind [2] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The market showed a strong upward trend with a total trading volume of 2.34 trillion, an increase of 365.9 billion from the previous trading day [5] - The market sentiment is stabilizing, with active funds' reduction nearing its end, indicating a gradual recovery in investor confidence [5] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that despite potential supply and demand pressures in the spring of next year, the resonance between economic and market bottoms will strengthen, potentially driving a new market rally [5] - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), Non-ferrous Metals, and New Energy [5] Upcoming Events - The 2025 Financial Street Forum will take place from October 27 to 30 in Beijing, focusing on global financial development under the themes of innovation, transformation, and reshaping [4]