Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamentals remained weak, with supply at a high level and demand recovering slowly. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated, with fundamentals under pressure. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand. An approach of shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points is recommended [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore supply. The demand is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - to - long - term, a shorting - on - rallies strategy is suggested, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to see an increase in supply and potential inventory accumulation. The medium - term price is expected to reach the cash cost of 2,700 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is supported in the short - term but may face pressure in Q3, with the price expected to range around 20,000 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Catalog Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.13%. The futures import loss decreased by 5.75%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% [1]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP and external - purchased raw materials for producing electrowon nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. - **New Energy Materials Price**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.36%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed various changes [1]. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62%, and imports increased by 8.18%. Inventories in various regions decreased to different extents [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The spot prices of 304/2B stainless steel remained stable, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 11.54% [4]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%, and the price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36%, imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85% [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased [6]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. In April, imports increased by 56.33% and exports increased by 233.72% [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 0.11%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 20.74% [8]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased by 1.10% [8]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed significant changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% [8]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%, and the premium decreased [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased [10]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%, and in April, imports increased by 2.40% and exports increased by 75.76% [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%, and the premium decreased. The prices of alumina in different regions decreased slightly [13]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [13]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% [13]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap spread increased by 1.08% [14]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%, and in April, imports decreased by 19.06% [14].

【重要资讯】 t.）定观：美国梦说院版共和党税协法案计划将债务上限提高至6万亿美元，将原本在众议院版本申设定于2020年到期的三项企业税收减复永久化，但未就"州知地方税扣除"（SMLT） 达成最终协议。美国后肖费瑞通胀5PI 年卒为2.4%低于预期但高于前值，特朗普政府关税政策仍示引动消费试通胀反弹，使美联储9/12月降息预期敬率升高 0617: 国内铜冶炼厂6月检修产能或环减, 国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少+E4:K28F28E4:K29E4:K30E4:K32E4:K30E4:K29E4:K30 | | 变量名称 | 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-13 | 2025-06-06 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78550 | 78010 | 78930 | 540. 00 | 3 | | | 成交量(手) | 76515 | 98873 | 128281 | -22, 358. 00 | Vin | | | 持仓量(手) | 192243 | 193847 | 204 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Nickel - The nickel market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The short - term fundamentals lack drivers, and the mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The supply is high, the demand is slowly recovering, and the social inventory is still high [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. The supply is sufficient, the demand is affected by policies, and the inventory is at a high level [6]. Tin - The tin price is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the long term due to the slow supply recovery and weak demand expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [7]. Zinc - In the long term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock if the mine supply growth is lower than expected and the downstream consumption is better than expected. Otherwise, the price may decline [10]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price is supported by the low inventory and low warehouse receipts, with the upper limit around 20,500 yuan/ton. In Q3, the price may face pressure, with the support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.64% to 120,725 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 0.71% to 121,775 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 0.31% to - 192 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,750 yuan/ton and 12,900 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 58,900 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 265,300 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.85% to - 82.5 dollars/ton [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.08% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 528 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.48% to 20,630 yuan/ton, and the alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi decreased [13]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.39% to 78,645 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 912 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and the import volume increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% to 25,676 tons [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and the import volume increased by 10.26% to 14.21 million tons [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate production in May decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and the demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The 4 - month tin ore import increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and the SMM refined tin production in May decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.59% to 7,107 tons [7]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in May decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and the import volume increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 4.41% to 7.81 million tons [10]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina production in May increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.98% to 45.80 million tons [13]. - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in May increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 19.06% to 25.00 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.76% to 81.28 million tons [14]. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: The macro environment is stable, the spot market sentiment is low, and the cost support is slightly weakened. The downstream demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market trading is light, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply is high, and the demand is slowly recovering [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is volatile, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is affected by policies [6]. - **Tin**: The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply recovery is slow, and the demand expectation is weak [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply - side mine is loose, and the demand - side is gradually weakening. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [10]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is supported by the low inventory, but the demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The alumina supply is gradually increasing [13]. - **Copper**: The macro environment is weak, and the "strong reality" of the fundamentals restricts the decline. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14].

1. Tin Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Supply - side recovery is slow, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand outlook, it is advisable to focus on the supply - side recovery rhythm and adopt a short - selling strategy based on inventory and import data inflection points [1]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.11% to 265,600 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium dropped 13.64% to 950 yuan/ton. LME 0 - 3 premium fell 9.85% to - 82.50 dollars/ton [1]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: Import loss increased by 11.20% to - 10,937.43 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped 880.00% to - 390 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: April tin ore imports increased 18.48% to 9,861 tons. SMM refined tin production in May decreased 2.37% to 14,840 tons [1]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory decreased 3.59% to 7,107 tons, and social inventory increased 1.00% to 8,945 tons [1]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, the balance may be in surplus due to increased processing output and some lithium spodumene lithium extraction increments. The upstream has not seen substantial large - scale production cuts, and the futures price is expected to run weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 60,650 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) rose 461.54% to 730 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and demand increased 4.81% to 93,938 tons. Total inventory increased 1.49% to 97,637 tons [2]. 3. Nickel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the short term, the fundamentals change little and lack driving forces. The disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract referring to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped 0.33% to 121,500 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium rose 3.09% to 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Electrowinning Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP producing electrowon nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton [4]. - **New Energy Material Price**: Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,815 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 remained at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.39% to 25,616 tons [4]. 4. Stainless Steel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The disk returns to the fundamental trading logic. In the short term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped 0.39% to 12,750 yuan/ton, and the basis spread decreased 3.90% to 370 yuan/ton [7]. - **Raw Material Price**: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped 0.59% to 934 yuan/nickel point [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to - 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 2.04% to 53.08 million tons [7]. 5. Zinc Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side easing cycle. If the growth rate of TC exceeds expectations, it indicates smooth transmission to the refined zinc end. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped 0.31% to 22,240 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 240 yuan/ton [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: Import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 8.33 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped to 195 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: May refined zinc production decreased 1.08% to 54.94 million tons. Galvanizing开工率 increased to 60.06% [10]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 2.77% to 7.71 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.78% to 13.1 million tons [10]. 6. Aluminum Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: For alumina, the short - term futures price has limited downward adjustment space, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are supported, but there is pressure in Q3, with the lowest support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.39% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the premium was - 210 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: May alumina production increased 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [13]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 8.73% to 46.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.67% to 35.3 million tons [13]. 7. Copper Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the context of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices will fluctuate in the short - term. The "rush - to - export" demand overdrafts subsequent demand, and there is uncertainty in US copper import tariff policies. The main contract refers to the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped 0.15% to 78,955 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 35 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 rose to 340 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: May electrolytic copper production increased 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports in April decreased 19.06% to 25.00 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased 2.69% to 14.48 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.08% to 10.19 million tons [14].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月16日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265600 | 265300 | 300 | 0.11% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 950 | 1100 | -150 | -13.64% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 266100 | 265800 | 300 | 0.11% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -82.50 | -75.10 | -7.40 | -9.85% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 那值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口密亏 | -10937.43 | -9835.62 | -1101.81 | -11.20% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.09 | 8. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector showed a pattern of rising and then falling due to the decline in risk appetite. The copper market is affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, raw material supply, and demand. The zinc market is expected to be weak in the short - term with a supply increase in June. The nickel and stainless - steel market is in a weak and volatile state, influenced by geopolitical risks, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics [1][93][209] - For copper, due to the complex macro - environment and changes in the supply - demand relationship in the industrial chain, the copper price has a risk of falling from high levels. For zinc, considering the supply recovery in June and the weakening demand, the zinc price is expected to decline, and short - selling is recommended. For nickel and stainless - steel, affected by geopolitical risks and policy changes, the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [9][93][209] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and the prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. It also provides their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiations had a general market response. The domestic social financing and credit data improved slightly in May, but the demand - side expectations need to be further improved. The US inflation continued to decline, but the expectation of interest - rate cuts did not rise significantly [9] - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore decreased slightly, and the copper ore supply remained tight. The domestic copper ore port inventory increased. The production plan of Kamoa - Kakula Copper Mine was reduced due to the flooding incident [9] - **Smelting End**: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore remained around 2950 yuan/ton, while those using long - term contracts turned from near - break - even to a profit of 40 yuan/ton. The domestic copper production in May increased and is expected to remain high in June [9] - **Demand End**: With the arrival of the off - season in May and the high copper price, the domestic copper product operating rate declined slightly [9] - **Inventory**: The domestic copper social inventory decreased slightly, the US copper inventory increased, and the LME copper inventory decreased. The global visible copper inventory decreased slightly [9] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The copper price is expected to be weak and volatile. The macro - market sentiment is complex, and the industrial support is weakening, so there is a risk of the copper price falling from high levels [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level volatility for single - side trading and positive spread arbitrage for Shanghai copper. Attention should be paid to the US tariff policy, copper inventory, and the mid - year negotiation of copper ore processing fees [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: The Middle - East conflict escalated, and the US inflation data cooled down, increasing the expectation of two interest - rate cuts by the Fed this year [93] - **Raw Material End**: The domestic processing fee remained unchanged, and the import processing fee increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory decreased, but the raw material supply is expected to be stable and abundant in the future [93] - **Smelting End**: Some previously shut - down smelters in Henan resumed production last week, and more are expected to resume in June. The production is expected to increase by more than 20,000 tons in June but may decline in July due to some planned shutdowns. The inflow of imported goods has an impact on the spot premium [93] - **Demand End**: The off - season and high - temperature weather in the South have suppressed terminal demand. The export demand is uncertain due to tariff disturbances [93] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased again. As of June 12, it was 7.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from last Thursday. The inventory turning point may become clear in mid - to late June [93] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to decline, and short - selling is recommended [93] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - selling for single - side trading and waiting for opportunities for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to macro - risks and the uncertainty of smelter shutdowns [93] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: The Israel - Iran conflict intensified, increasing market risk aversion. The US announced tariffs on steel - made household appliances, which may affect the terminal demand for nickel and stainless steel. The domestic social financing growth in May was stable, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [209] - **Raw Material End**: The Philippines removed the ban on nickel ore exports, which weakened the market sentiment in the short - term. The Indonesian nickel ore premium remained stable, but the demand for nickel ore procurement may weaken due to the increase in the average inventory of pyrometallurgical smelters. The domestic port inventory decreased slightly due to the impact of rainfall in the Philippines [209] - **Smelting End**: The production of pure nickel decreased slightly in May. The price of nickel iron decreased, and the supply pressure remained. The MHP coefficient was stable, but some nickel sulfate enterprises still have the expectation of production cuts. In the long - term, the new production capacity of primary nickel in Indonesia is expected to continue to be released [209] - **Demand End**: The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, with weak spot transactions. The production of some steel mills is expected to decrease slightly in June. The new - energy vehicle production and sales remained high, but the raw material inventory of precursors has accumulated [209] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory was 197,500 tons (- 1.3%), and the SHFE nickel inventory was 25,600 tons (+ 0.3%) [209] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. In the long - term, there is still pressure of oversupply for primary nickel. Attention should be paid to the cost range of electrowinning nickel and resource - country policies [209] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term short - selling for single - side trading and waiting for opportunities for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to nickel - related policies in resource - rich countries and global macro - disturbances [209]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of overseas copper are strong, but there are uncertainties in the macro - environment, and copper prices will continue to fluctuate. The strength analysis is neutral, with a price range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The copper spot is tight, and low domestic and falling LME inventories support near - term prices. However, macro - disturbances such as US tariff policies and the Middle - East situation affect investor sentiment, leading to low volatility in copper prices in four markets. [6] - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are decreasing, but the spot premium is narrowing. In June, the off - season characteristics are apparent in consumption, with reduced grid orders and weak consumption in industries like real estate, infrastructure, home decoration, and home appliances. However, lower prices prompt downstream and end - users to buy on dips, reducing inventories. On the supply side, copper concentrate supply is tight, spot processing fees are weakening, and secondary copper supply is short, increasing the probability of smelter production cuts or shutdowns. [6] - In terms of trading strategies, due to the lack of logical resonance between the macro and micro levels, prices are expected to remain volatile. With low domestic and overseas inventories, there is upward potential when copper prices are low. For spread trading, it is recommended to hold long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets and maintain term - spread long positions in Shanghai copper futures [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: Copper price volatility in four markets remains weak, with COMEX copper price volatility around 17% and LME copper price volatility around 7% [12]. - Term Spread: The B - structure of Shanghai copper term spreads is narrowing, with the spread between Shanghai copper contracts 06 - 07 rising from 80 yuan/ton on June 6th to 340 yuan/ton on June 13th. The LME copper spot premium is expanding, with the LME 0 - 3 spread increasing from a premium of 69.84 US dollars/ton to 73.41 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper is narrowing [16]. - Position: Shanghai copper and COMEX copper positions are decreasing, with Shanghai copper positions reducing by 17,600 lots to 551,900 lots. LME copper and international copper positions are increasing [17]. - Funds and Industry Positions: The net long positions of non - commercial traders in CFTC copper are increasing, rising from 24,094 lots on June 3rd to 26,351 lots on June 10th [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium is narrowing, dropping from a premium of 75 yuan/ton on June 6th to 35 yuan/ton on June 13th. The Yangshan Port copper premium is weakening, and the Southeast Asian premium is falling [28]. - Inventory: Global total copper inventories are falling, from 508,300 tons on June 5th to 491,300 tons on June 12th. Domestic social inventories are decreasing, and bonded - area inventories are rising. COMEX inventories are increasing, and LME copper inventories are falling [34]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper contract 07 is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and the LME copper position - to - inventory ratio is rising rapidly, indicating tight overseas spot supplies [35]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Supply is increasing, with China's copper concentrate imports in April 2025 reaching 2.9244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.16% and a year - on - year increase of 24.55%. Port inventories are rising, but processing fees are weakening, with the spot TC at - 44.75 US dollars/ton on June 13th [38]. - Secondary Copper: Imports are decreasing year - on - year, and domestic production is also significantly down year - on - year. The premium between refined and secondary copper is narrowing, and import profitability is expanding [41][46]. - Blister Copper: Imports are increasing, and processing fees are at a low level. In April, imports were 74,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In May, processing fees were at a historically low level [50]. - Refined Copper: Production is increasing more than expected, with May's output at 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. Imports are decreasing, and with the narrowing of import losses and previous export profitability, domestic supplies may be shipped overseas [55]. 3.3 Demand End - Operating Rate: In May, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and that of copper plates and foils was at a neutral level. The operating rate of wire and cable slightly rebounded in the week of June 12th [58]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees are falling. Processing fees for copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils are also weakening [63]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level compared to the same period in history, while that of copper tubes was at a low level [64]. - Finished - Product Inventory: Copper rod finished - product inventories are rising, and wire and cable finished - product inventories are increasing. In May, copper rod finished - product inventories were at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube finished - product inventories were at a relatively low level [67]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Domestic copper consumption is performing well. From January to May, cumulative actual consumption was 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and apparent consumption was 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Grid investment, home appliances, and new - energy enterprises are important drivers of copper consumption, with grid investment growing rapidly [72]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In April, domestic air - conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.91%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.251 million units, a year - on - year increase of 43.79% [74].

「2025.06.13」 沪铜市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 淡季影响供需回落，沪铜或将有所承压 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡回落，周线涨跌幅为-1.17%，振幅2.12%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价78010元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国5月PPI同比增长2.6%，符合预期，前值增长2.4%。美国5月核心PPI同比增长3%，低于预期值 3.1%，前值为3.1%。数据显示，美国5月生产者价格涨幅保持温和，因商品和服务成本升幅有限。国内方面，商务部在谈 到中美经贸关系时表示，中方反对单边加征关税措施的立场是一贯的，敦促美方恪守世贸组织规则，与中方按照相互尊重、 和平共处、合作共赢的原则，共同推动中美经贸关系稳定、可持续发展。基本面上，铜精矿TC费用略有好转，但仍处低位 区间，国内港口库存快速回落，铜矿供给趋紧。供给方面，由于原料供给较为紧张，部分冶炼厂或有减产迹象，精铜供应 亦将有所收敛。需求方面，受淡季 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro atmosphere has warmed up, driving up the prices of most non - ferrous metals. The copper price is expected to maintain a strong trend, with attention on the pressure at the 80,000 yuan mark. The aluminum price is expected to continue to stabilize and recover, and the monthly positive spread can be considered. The nickel price may run weakly [5][6][7] Group 3: Summary of Industry Dynamics Copper - Freeport - McMoRan Inc. believes that the copper tariffs threatened by former US President Trump may backfire and lead to a decline in copper demand. China's Sinomine Resource Group has suspended copper smelting operations at its Tsumeb plant in Namibia due to a shortage of copper concentrates caused by the rapid expansion of global smelting capacity [9] Aluminum - In May 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production index increased steadily, while the alumina production index decreased slightly. On June 10, the cast aluminum alloy futures were listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In 2024, China's recycled copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc production reached 19.15 million tons, accounting for 24% of the production of ten non - ferrous metals, with recycled aluminum production exceeding 10 million tons and a carbon emission reduction contribution rate of over 85% [10] Nickel - On June 11, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract, with different prices for various types of nickel [11] Group 4: Summary of Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts of copper basis, monthly spread, domestic visible inventory, overseas exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15] Aluminum - The report includes charts of aluminum basis, domestic social inventory, overseas exchange inventory, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27] Nickel - The report presents charts of nickel basis, monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for each metal, it provides a mid - to long - term outlook, including "oscillation", "oscillation - weakening", etc., which can be roughly understood as a short - to medium - term investment view. For example, copper, aluminum, lead, stainless steel, and tin are expected to oscillate; zinc and nickel are expected to oscillate weakly; and the outlook for alumina and aluminum alloy is more specific with trading strategies [5][8][12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The colored metals market is influenced by a combination of a weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand, leading to continued oscillation. In the short - to medium - term, focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in the demand outlook for base metals, and it is advisable to look for opportunities to short on rallies for some metals with oversupply or expected oversupply [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Current Situation**: The US May labor market data was better than expected, with non - farm payrolls increasing by 139,000. Global copper mining giant Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. In May, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 1.26 million tons month - on - month and 12.86% year - on - year. As of June 9, copper inventory in mainstream regions in China rose to 149,500 tons. The US increased the tariff on imported steel and aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50% [5]. - **Main Logic**: The US manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, and overseas economies are at risk of further weakening. On the supply side, copper concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, and raw material supply is still tight. Some smelters at home and abroad have announced maintenance and production cuts. On the demand side, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, downstream restocking willingness has weakened, and domestic social inventories have started to rise, limiting the upward space for copper prices [5]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventories are at a low level, supporting the bottom of copper prices. It is expected that copper will show high - level oscillation in the short term [5]. 3.2 Alumina - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina dropped by 15 yuan to 3,280 yuan, and the national weighted index dropped by 41.4 yuan to 3,260.8 yuan. An electrolytic aluminum plant in the northwest region tendered to purchase 10,000 tons of alumina, and a plant in Guangxi purchased 2,000 tons. Indonesia's Bintan Alumina Company's Phase III project entered the trial production stage, and a mining license in Guinea was revoked [5]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore. With the repair of previous spot - futures profits, an increase in operating capacity and an inventory inflection point are expected. Long - term news is frequent, but the impact is expected to be limited if not fermented on the basis of red mud. The market has relatively fully priced in the news of the revoked mining license in Guinea and is becoming desensitized to it [5][6]. - **Outlook**: The logic of near - month production resumption is more certain than that of far - month ore supply. Given the current back structure, consider rolling into 7 - 9/7 - 1 reverse spreads. Aggressive investors can short contract 07 on rallies [6]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the average price of SMM Shanghai aluminum ingot spot was 20,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As of June 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 477,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 129,500 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons. Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Sichuan are resuming production [7]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's increase in steel and aluminum tariffs has intensified global trade tensions. On the supply side, the spot price of upstream alumina has declined, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has remained high. Overseas, the import of electrolytic aluminum into China is at a loss, and the supply growth space is limited. On the demand side, downstream demand has strengthened. In the long - term, domestic supply pressure is limited, and demand is expected to be cautiously optimistic, with the aluminum market in a tight - balance state [8]. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand has slightly increased, and it is expected that inventories will decline in the future. It is recommended to go long on dips, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged at 19,400 yuan/ton. The SMM AOO average price was 20,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO was - 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [8]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, the pressure of the automotive off - season is high, ADC12 is weak, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory is low with firm prices. ADC12 - AOO may still weaken. In the long - term, the demand for ADC12 is expected to seasonally recover in the third quarter, and there is an expectation of an increase in ADC12 and ADC12 - AOO [9][11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 oscillates weakly. In the long term, ADC12 and ADC12 - AOO are expected to rise [11]. 3.5 Zinc - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 295 yuan/ton, and that of Guangdong 0 zinc was 285 yuan/ton. As of June 10, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from last Thursday. Kipushi Mine is expected to produce 50,000 - 70,000 tons of zinc concentrate [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is volatile, and macro - uncertainty remains. On the supply side, the short - term supply of zinc ore has become looser, domestic zinc ore processing fees have increased, and smelters have started to make profits and increase production willingness. On the demand side, domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and terminal new orders are limited. In the long - term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is small, and supply will remain in oversupply [12]. - **Outlook**: After annual maintenance, zinc ingot production has increased again, downstream demand has gradually weakened, and inventories have accumulated. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and continue to decline in the long term [12]. 3.6 Lead - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, and the difference between primary and recycled lead was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 16,625 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets decreased by 500 tons to 53,400 tons, and the latest Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons to 42,198 tons [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount was stable, and the difference between primary and recycled lead increased slightly. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries was stable, the lead price rose, the loss of recycled lead smelting narrowed, and some enterprises reduced production due to environmental inspections. On the demand side, affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the operating rate of lead - acid battery manufacturers decreased last week, but the operating rate was higher than the same period in previous years due to the "trade - in" activities in the automotive and electric bicycle markets [13]. - **Outlook**: After the Geneva negotiations, Sino - US tariffs have decreased significantly. In terms of supply and demand, the demand off - season has arrived, and battery dealers' finished product inventories are high, but the electric bicycle market's "trade - in" activities may keep the battery factory operating rate better than in previous years. The supply of lead ingots may remain stable this week. The price of waste batteries is likely to rise, and the cost of recycled lead provides high - level support. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [14][15]. 3.7 Nickel - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the LME nickel inventory was 198,126 tons, a decrease of 966 tons from the previous trading day, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,041 tons, a decrease of 151 tons. Indonesia and France agreed to strengthen cooperation in key minerals, and BHP renewed an exploration agreement in Norway. Indonesia plans to reduce fuel imports from Singapore and has proposed a strategy to stabilize mineral and coal prices. The production of hydroxide precipitates in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park has declined [15][16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are showing marginal weakness. The ore end is relatively strong, but the rainy season may restrict raw materials. The production of intermediate products has recovered, the price of nickel salts has slightly declined, the profit of salt factories has slightly improved, and the production of nickel sulfate from nickel beans is still at a loss. The supply of electrolytic nickel is in serious excess, and inventories have accumulated significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The US reciprocal tariffs have led to a systematic price decline. In the long term, short on rallies. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [18]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Current Situation**: The latest stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 120,039 tons, a decrease of 1,624 tons from the previous trading day. On June 10, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 to the stainless steel main contract was 540 yuan/ton. In May, the national nickel pig iron production increased, and it is expected to decrease in June. The production of high - carbon ferrochrome increased in May. The national stainless steel production decreased slightly in May [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has declined slightly, and the price of ferrochrome has weakened marginally. The 300 - series stainless steel is still in an inverted situation, putting pressure on steel mills. In May, stainless steel production decreased slightly, and it is expected to further decrease in June. Demand is gradually moving out of the peak season, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. The social inventory has decreased, and the warehouse receipt reduction is significant, alleviating the structural oversupply pressure [22]. - **Outlook**: The cost side still supports steel prices, but the market's acceptance of prices is limited. Demand moving out of the peak season also puts pressure on steel prices. Future focus should be on inventory changes and cost - side changes. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.9 Tin - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2,415 tons, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 38 tons to 6,866 tons. The Shanghai tin open interest increased by 107 lots to 50,717 lots. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot was 264,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The previous sharp decline in tin prices may be due to short - sellers entering the market in advance under long - term pessimistic expectations, and the rumor of Wa State's resumption of production was just a trigger. In the short term, after the over - decline and the news of a slow resumption of production, the price rebounded. With Wa State's tin production not yet resumed, the domestic ore supply is tight, and the supply - demand fundamentals of tin are resilient. However, the easing of supply - side disturbances and the less - optimistic long - term demand outlook limit the upward elasticity of tin prices [23]. - **Outlook**: News from Wa State has increased tin price volatility. The tight ore supply provides support for tin prices. Whether the tight ore supply can further accelerate the transmission to the ingot end will determine the height of tin prices in June. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [23].