Core Viewpoint - The domestic palm oil futures market is experiencing a mixed performance with prices showing a slight upward trend, influenced by various factors including production changes and weather conditions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, the main contract for palm oil futures opened at 8420.00 yuan/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a peak of 8540.00 yuan and a low of 8406.00 yuan, resulting in an increase of approximately 1.81% [1] - The overall market for palm oil is characterized by strong performance despite mixed market conditions, with the futures prices showing a trend of oscillation upwards [1] Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Zhengxin Futures noted an increase in Malaysia's palm oil production month-on-month, with improvements in fresh fruit bunch yield and oil extraction rates; however, the spot transaction volume was zero, leading to price fluctuations [1] - Ningzheng Futures indicated that the onset of the rainy season in Malaysia suggests an upcoming reduction in production, with a significant decrease in palm oil output expected compared to the first 20 days of the month, alongside flooding in Indonesia that may support future prices [1] - Everbright Futures reported a seasonal increase in Malaysian palm oil production coupled with a decrease in exports, resulting in significant inventory pressure; Indonesian palm oil spot prices have fallen while Malaysian prices have risen, contributing to a generally oscillating market [1]

美国农业部（USDA）将在周五晚上21:30发布截至10月16日当周出口销售报告。据外媒调查的预期值， 预计美国2025/26市场年度大豆出口净销售为60-200万吨。 瑞达期货（002961）研报：美国大豆出口检验量为79.90万吨，较去年同期的211.98万吨显著下降，本年 度累计出口检验量同比减少44.5%，整体出口进度明显偏慢。目前市场关注焦点在于中国能否实现年底 前采购1200万吨美豆的庞大目标，但从现有条件看，面临多重阻力。中国国内大豆港口库存及油厂库存 均处于高位，压榨利润不佳，且美豆在价格上相较于巴西大豆缺乏竞争力，使其采购吸引力下降。此 外，南美生产形势总体稳定，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆播种进度为24.6%，虽较一周前提升，但仍落后于 去年同期11%。综合来看，豆二总体走势偏震荡。 11月26日，进口大豆升贴水报价：墨西哥湾(12月船期)235美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相比下调3美分/ 蒲式耳；美国西岸(12月船期)220美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相比上调1美分/蒲式耳；巴西港口(12月船 期)220美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相比持平。 11月27日，国内期市主力合约大面积飘红。其中，豆 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内现货需求疲软，饲料企业多以刚需补货为主，对远期供应缺口的预期存疑。同时，国 内豆粕库存处于相对高位，供应宽松压制近月合约表现。然而，成本端为市场提供底部支撑，市场关 注美国政府释放的出口乐观预期，市场聚焦年底前中国能否大规模采购美豆。此外，南美大豆的丰产 预期也限制了美豆价格的上涨空间。盘面来看，随着资金移仓换月转向远月 2605，豆粕期价波动重 心有所下移，3000 元/吨关口仍是短期多空争夺的重要分水岭，短期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 ...

2025 年 11 月 27 日 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 豆油：区间震荡为主，豆棕维持做扩 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,440 | 0.96% | 8,416 | -0.28% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,150 | 0.07% | 8,150 | 0.00% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,819 | 0.01% | 9,716 | -1.05% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,022 | 0.80% | 4,044 | 0.50% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.05 | 0.79% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 504,182 | -93309 | 382,297 | -21,353 | | | 豆油 ...

天气方面，最新预报显示，巴西北部地区降雨充足，阿根廷和巴西南部28日、29日可能出现阵雨或雷 暴。阿根廷过去六周一直处于潮湿状态，但每周也只有一次降雨机会，这有利于表层土壤坚实，为春季 播种做好准备。加上目前没有出现极端高温的迹象，这使得市场相信南美洲作物产量前景依然乐观。 市场分析认为，近期农产品期价的上涨是基于技术性买盘和季节性上升趋势的驱动。基本面上的供应宽 松压力依然存在。机构报告数据显示，巴西大豆有望创下历史新高。除非南美洲出现不利天气，否则芝 加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品价格上涨势头将较为疲软。 消息面上，俄罗斯私人咨询公司IKAR预测，由于冬小麦播种天气有利，2026年俄罗斯小麦产量将在 8600万至9100万吨之间。今年俄罗斯小麦总产量预计为8850万吨。如果俄罗斯小麦产量再次超过8500万 吨，其将能够出口4400万至4700万吨小麦。与此同时，欧盟冬小麦生长也开局良好，全球小麦供应压力 预计将持续至2026年。 新华财经纽约11月26日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价26日全线上涨。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.45美元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is generally strong, with prices fluctuating. The domestic soybean meal shows a rising trend, while rapeseed meal continues to rebound. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly expands, and the monthly spreads of both contracts decline [3]. - The current international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The US market is relatively strong due to increased exports, but the Brazilian new - crop soybean may face price pressure in the medium term [4]. - The domestic spot market is in a state of loose supply - demand. The oil mill's开机率 increases, the market supply is sufficient, and the inventory remains high. The market demand is increasing, but there is still a potential shortage in the long - term supply [5]. - The impact of macro factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [6]. - In the short term, the US soybean futures may fluctuate at a high level. The South American market has price support, and the international soybean market supply - demand is relatively stable. The domestic soybean meal may face price pressure in the medium - long term, and the rapeseed meal supply may still face pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Basis**: For soybean meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 3015, 2826, and 2938 respectively, with price increases of 2, 6, and 7. The spot basis in various regions shows a downward trend. For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 2439, 2387, and 2451 respectively, with price increases of 8, 2, and 1. The spot basis in some regions also decreases [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread is 189 (down 4 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 112 (down 1), and the 91 - spread is - 77 (up 5). For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread is 52 (up 6), the 59 - spread is - 64 (up 1), and the 91 - spread is 12 (down 7) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 576 (down from yesterday), and the 09 - spread is 487 (up from yesterday). The spot difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 468 (down 13), between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 370 (down 20), and between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 718 (down 3) [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **International Market**: The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, but the upside is limited. South American supply - side influence increases. Brazil's new - crop sowing progresses fast, with a generally positive supply outlook. Argentina's old - crop soybean has increased processing and exports [4]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 21, the actual soybean processing volume of oil mills is 2.3344 million tons, the开机率 is 64.22%, the soybean inventory is 7.1499 million tons (down 4.38% from last week, up 39.91% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory is 1.1515 million tons (up 15.97% from last week, up 49.47% year - on - year). The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure persists [5]. 3.3 Macro Factors - The US government ends the shutdown, and Sino - US negotiations release positive signals, which boost the US soybean futures. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China improves the export prospects. However, the impact of macro factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean futures may fluctuate at a high level without significant improvement in exports. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the price. The international soybean market supply - demand is relatively stable, and price changes are expected to be limited. The domestic soybean meal market has supply - side pressure, and the rapeseed meal supply may face challenges [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: Place a small number of long positions [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8]. 3.6 Soybean Processing Profits - The processing profits of Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For example, the February shipment has a spot processing profit of 52.57 and a change of - 2.52 compared to yesterday [9].

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 8126 | 192 | 2.36% | 44,059 | 43.13% | 19,822 | 2.30% | | PK510 | | 8278 | 72 | 0.87% | 229 | 308.93% | 686 | 7.69% | | PK601 | | 8186 | 250 | 3.05% | 220,896 | 123.58% | 128,388 | 19.62% | | 现货与基差 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - For corn, the US corn harvest is nearly complete, leading to high short - term supply pressure. Global and US soybean supply - demand is relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices. In China, Northeast growers are reluctant to sell, and transportation issues support the bottom price. Consumption increases due to better processing profits and higher operating rates, and the purchase price is strong. In North China and Huanghuai, the new - grain quality varies, and the market is less active. Corn futures prices are generally strong, but chasing up is not recommended [2]. - For corn starch, with the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate rises, increasing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is good, and the inventory has decreased. Starch futures have risen with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2235 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2551 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The number of long positions in the top 20 futures for corn decreased by 6445 hands, while that for corn starch increased by 4310 hands [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 438.25 cents/bushel, up 1 cent. The total position of CBOT corn is 1596361 contracts, up 46302 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn decreased by 11046 contracts to - 92353 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2316.27 yuan/ton, up 7.05 yuan; the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 39 yuan, up 35 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is 81.27 yuan, up 14.05 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn output in the US is 427.11 million tons, up 1.85 million tons; in Brazil, it is 131 million tons, unchanged. The predicted annual corn output in China is 295 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 62.8 million tons, down 23.8 million tons; in northern ports, it is 134 million tons, up 10 million tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 106.9 million tons, down 4 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is 12.78 yuan/ton, down 2.02 yuan; in Hebei, it is 107 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin, it is 37 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.06%, up 0.34%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.48%, up 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 10.82%, up 1.23% [2]. Industry News - As of November 23, the US corn harvest progress in 18 states (accounting for 94% of the national corn - sown area) is 96%. As of November 22, the first - season corn planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 59.3% complete [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term upside and downside of Zhengzhou cotton prices are limited, and a sideways trading pattern is expected. In the long - term, cotton prices are optimistic after the seasonal pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] - The short - term fundamental drivers of Zhengzhou sugar prices are still downward, but the decline space is limited, with a possibility of a weak rebound. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend next year may not be optimistic [5] - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to trade in a low - level sideways range [8] Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,645 yuan/ton yesterday, up 60 yuan/ton (+0.44%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,599 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton. As of November 23, the national cotton picking progress in the US was 79%, 4 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The November USDA report was bearish for the market. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, driving the Zhengzhou cotton futures price to rebound. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, the expected yield in Xinjiang has risen again, the downstream peak season is not obvious, and the demand support is insufficient. But the spinning profit has improved, and the finished product inventory pressure is okay, so the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. Consider a sideways trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton in the short - term. In the long - term, be optimistic about cotton prices after the seasonal pressure and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5387 yuan/ton yesterday, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of November 23, 2025/26, 154 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 34 more than the same period last season, with 15.177 million tons of sugarcane crushed and 1.1592 million tons of sugar produced, with an average sugar yield of 7.64% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's supply remained strong in the second half of October, strengthening the oversupply expectation. Indian sugar mills have started crushing, and the sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 2025/26 season. The long - term oversupply pattern restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices, but the short - term decline space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar: The recently announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and Guangxi sugar mills are starting to crush, so the short - term supply pressure is high, driving the Zhengzhou sugar price to a new low [4] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills have the intention to support prices at the beginning of the season. The short - term decline space is limited, with a possibility of a weak rebound. The long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and new lows may appear [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5212 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5465 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Some pulp prices in the imported wood pulp spot market showed a weakening trend [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply pattern remained loose. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was emerging. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing pulp prices. Although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, the paper mill operating rate declined, and the downstream paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to trade in a low - level sideways range [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic supply of bean meal is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals. Although the oil mill operating rate has increased, inventory consumption is slow, and the price is affected by the decline in CBOT soybean prices but supported by high import costs. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] - For corn, new grain is concentrated on the market, showing a slightly loose supply. However, farmers have a strong mentality of holding back sales, leading to strong port and production area prices. Attention should be paid to farmers' grain - selling and traders' shipping [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3013 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. - Spot: Tianjin's bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jiangsu's was 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased by 2 compared to the previous day [1] - Market information: Brazil exported 336.6 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 24 million tons, a 79% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 81% of the expected area. As of November 20, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 79.9 million tons [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is loose, with slow inventory consumption. The decline in CBOT soybean prices drives the domestic bean meal price down, but high import costs provide support [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2242 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.99%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.83%) - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased compared to the previous day [4] - Market information: Brazil exported 393.9 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 28.1 million tons, a 13% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of November 20, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region was 93%. As of November 20, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 163.2 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to strong prices. The supply in North China is tight due to previous disasters. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises start to increase inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]