Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate; Dalian soybeans are expected to move sideways [1] - The soybean market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report on January 12 and capital flows from the annual adjustment of commodity indices [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices** - DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4276 yuan/ton during the day session, up 17 yuan (+0.40%), and 4280 yuan/ton at night, up 16 yuan (+0.38%) [1] - DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2776 yuan/ton during the day session, up 30 yuan (+1.09%), and 2789 yuan/ton at night, up 26 yuan (+0.94%) [1] - CBOT soybeans 03 closed at 1056.5 cents/bushel, down 5.75 cents (-0.54%) [1] - CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 299.1 dollars/short - ton, down 0.6 dollars (-0.20%) [1] - **Spot Prices** - In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal was M2605 + 340/+350/+360/+370 yuan/ton, up 15 - 40 yuan from the previous day, ranging from 3065 - 3160 yuan/ton [1] - In East China, different enterprises had different spot price quotes relative to futures contracts, with prices showing various adjustments [1] - In South China, the spot price of soybean meal was also quoted relative to futures contracts, with some prices remaining flat or having small increases [1] - **Industrial Data** - The trading volume of soybean meal was 32.55 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 29.3 million tons two days ago [1] - The inventory of soybean meal was 105.05 million tons per week, compared with 110.22 million tons the previous week [1] Macro and Industry News - On January 6, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, falling from the one - week high in the morning session, mainly due to long - position profit - taking [3] - China increased its purchase of US soybeans. Private exporters reported selling 33.6 million tons of soybeans to China in the 2025/26 fiscal year, and COFCO bought about 60 million tons of US soybeans this week [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面驱动不强，关注宏观情绪影响 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：维持强势20260107 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：远月情绪转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：仍存累库行为 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：基本面驱动不强，关注宏观情绪影响 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 0.14% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.47% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Meal Daily Report" dated January 6, 2026, with the theme "Supply Pressure Improves, Futures Prices Rebound Slightly" [1] Group 2: Researcher Information - The researcher is Chen Jiezheng, with futures practice certificate number F3045719 and investment consulting certificate number Z0015458. Contact email: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, contract 01 closed at 3150 with a gain of 31; contract 05 closed at 2776 with a gain of 22; contract 09 closed at 2871 with a gain of 16. Spot basis in Tianjin dropped 10 to 340, in Dongguan remained at 330, in Zhangjiagang dropped 10 to 300, and in Rizhao dropped 10 to 310 [3] - For rapeseed meal, contract 01 closed at 2637 with a gain of 24; contract 05 closed at 2390 with a gain of 29; contract 09 closed at 2437 with a gain of 30. Spot basis in Nantong dropped 9 to 110, in Guangdong dropped 9 to 160, and in Guangxi dropped 9 to 150 [3] Monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 - spread was 374 (up 9), the 59 - spread was - 95 (up 6), and the 91 - spread was - 279 (down 15). For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread was 247 (down 5), the 59 - spread was - 47 (down 1), and the 91 - spread was - 200 (up 6) [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread was 513 (up from 506), the soybean - rapeseed 09 spread was 434 (down from 448), and the oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.584 (down from 2.590) [3] Spot Spreads - The soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 576 (down 8), the rapeseed meal - sunflower meal spread was 280 (down 20), and the soybean meal - sunflower meal spread was 836 (down 18) [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean futures market showed an overall upward trend after a significant decline. The domestic soybean meal futures also rose, supported by cost and supply uncertainties. Rapeseed meal rose due to macro - factors. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread trended up, with rapeseed meal demand support limited and more influenced by soybean meal prices. Soybean meal monthly spreads were strong, and rapeseed meal monthly spreads rose slightly [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean market remains in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with downward price pressure. South American supply factors have increased. Brazil's new - crop planting progress has accelerated but is still below the historical average. Most institutions expect a bumper harvest in Brazil, with expected export growth subject to actual yield. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing are good, but future crushing may be limited. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, with increased crushing and exports, though export growth may be limited [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is in a loose supply - demand situation, with high oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing提货量. As of January 2, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7533 million tons, the operating rate was 48.23%, soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons (up 8.53% from last week and 19.48% year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons (up 0.22% from last week and 71.18% year - on - year). Rapeseed meal demand has weakened, with oil mill operations mostly halted, low rapeseed supply, and high granular rapeseed meal inventory. As of January 2, coastal rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory were both 0 tons [5] Group 6: Logic Analysis - The US soybean market showed a slight rebound after full reflection of downward pressure. With limited demand support, if supply remains high, pressure will persist. Brazil's short - term weather is favorable, and if it continues, the pressure of a bumper harvest may increase. The international soybean market remains relatively loose, and prices are expected to be under pressure. South American quotes are firm, and domestic soybean meal supply may decrease, with some support for spot prices. In the medium - to - long - term, price pressure remains. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and its downward space is limited due to the improvement of soybean meal spot prices. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. Soybean meal monthly spreads may decline, and rapeseed meal monthly spreads will fluctuate slightly [6] Group 7: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, it is recommended to make small - scale long positions. For arbitrage, it is recommended to bet on the narrowing of the MRM spread. For options, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle strategy [7] Group 8: Soybean Crushing Profit - The report provides the soybean crushing profit data from Brazil for different shipping months from February to August 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in crushing profit compared to the previous day [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Report's Core View - The soybean market shows a game pattern of "bullish in producing areas and weak in selling areas", with policy support highlighting. The peanut market has a generally loose supply, but the actual trading activity is average due to the psychological reluctance of farmers and traders to sell [1][2][3] Market Analysis Soybean - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4,243.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 97, up 38 or 32.14% from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang varied from 2.12 to 2.33 yuan/jin [1] - **Market Situation**: The soybean futures main contract rose and then fell. The prices in southern selling areas were stable. The price transmission was blocked due to the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream enterprises, resulting in light trading. The policy support was significant, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed [1][2] Peanut - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7,938.00 yuan/ton, down 54.00 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The average peanut spot price was 8,036.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan/ton or 0.11% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 938.00, up 54.00 or - 5.44% month - on - month. The prices of different peanut varieties in various regions were stable [3] - **Market Situation**: The peanut futures main contract weakened. The overall peanut supply was loose, but the actual trading activity was average due to the reluctance of farmers and traders to sell. The downstream food enterprises mainly had rigid demand, and the demand from oil mills decreased [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-06 国内供应充足，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2754元/吨，较前日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.18%；菜粕2605合约2361元/吨，较前 日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.17%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3090元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+336， 较前日变动-15；江苏地区豆粕现货3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+296，较前日变动-15；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M05+316，较前日变动-5。福建地区菜粕现货价格2580 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+219，较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯，外媒1月3日消息：布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，截至12月30日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆播种完 成82%，高于一周前的75.5%。1月2日，美国农业部发布的月度油籽压榨报告显示，美国2025年11月大豆压榨量为 662万短吨（2.21亿蒲式耳）。2025年10月为709万短吨（2.36亿蒲式耳），2024年11月为630万短吨（2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to Bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The downstream spindle capacity expansion has increased domestic cotton consumption. With high production and consumption expected in the new year and low cotton imports, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there may be a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. Considering the possible significant decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year, the medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be bullish. However, short - term price increases driven by funds may lead to high - level corrections [2]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar market is facing downward pressure. Although the current valuation is low, the worst period of domestic pressure has not yet arrived, and there may be another bottom - seeking. However, the overall decline is expected to be limited, and the short - to - medium - term sugar price is expected to bottom out in a volatile manner [5]. - Pulp: Overseas supply disruptions continue, and the US dollar quotes are rising. With the pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment expected, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly bullish, but the upward space depends on the actual improvement of demand and the digestion of port inventory [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,655 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+0.48%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,442 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 787; the national average price was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 960. - Market Information: As of December 18, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed and exported 1.488 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 56.03% of the expected annual export volume, and had shipped 640,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 43.01%. The CCI in India had cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, with 39% from Telangana. Converted to lint, it was about 998,000 tons [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's December adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data was small. In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory increased slightly. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, and the inventory pressure increased significantly. With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere on the market, the short - term supply pressure was high, and global textile consumption was weak. The signing progress of US cotton exports was slow, and the ICE US cotton was expected to be under pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, US cotton was in a low - valuation range, with limited downward space but unclear upward drivers [1]. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly. As the sales progress of new cotton accelerated, the hedging resistance on the futures market decreased. On the demand side, with the approaching of the two festivals, yarn mills and traders stocked up actively, but downstream orders declined, finished product sales slowed down, and inventory in the industrial chain, especially in the grey fabric segment, increased significantly, showing a marginal weakening trend [1]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5257 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 73; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 - 57. - Market Information: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 504, 12 more than the same period last year. As of mid - December 2025, Uttar Pradesh had produced 3.586 million tons of sugar, an increase of 306,000 tons from the same period last year. Maharashtra had 197 sugar mills in operation, with a sugar production of 4.861 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 62%. Karnataka's sugar production had also increased by about 12% compared with the same period last year [3]. Market Analysis - Raw Sugar: In the 25/26 season, global sugar production was abundant, and the global sugar market was in a definite surplus. In the short term, due to the accelerated harvest in Brazil, limited exports from India, and the just - started harvest in Thailand, the downward space of raw sugar was limited, but the surplus pattern restricted its rebound momentum, and there was no sign of a trend reversal in the short - to - medium - term. In the long - term, there were uncertainties in weather and the sugar - making ratio next year. Some institutions predicted a decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area was expected to shrink, so the long - term sugar price should not be overly pessimistic [4]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: Domestic sugar production was expected to increase for the third consecutive year. Currently, sugar mills in Guangxi had gradually started production, and the supply showed a seasonal increase. On the import side, the profit of out - of - quota imports from Brazil remained high, and imports increased in the second half of the year, increasing the supply pressure. However, the control policy on syrup had become stricter this year, and the import volume of syrup and premixed powder was expected to further decrease next year [5]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5530 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 60. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5175 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 355. - Market Information: The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with individual prices fluctuating. The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted slightly downward in a narrow range. Traders in the imported softwood pulp spot market were willing to sell but were reluctant to sell at low prices due to profit considerations, so most prices remained stable, with only individual grades in the Shandong market adjusting by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In the imported hardwood pulp spot market, traders were actively raising prices due to rising arrival costs and tight available supplies, with high - end prices in the Guangdong market rising by 50 yuan/ton. The imported unbleached pulp market was trading smoothly, with prices remaining stable. The price of imported chemimechanical pulp increased in some areas with slightly tight supplies, with prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong rising by 50 yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: There had been continuous news of overseas pulp mills shutting down for maintenance. Domtar permanently closed its Crofton paper mill in British Columbia, Canada, with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp. Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill with a 650,000 - ton softwood pulp capacity temporarily shut down on December 15 and was expected to gradually resume production on January 7 next year. In addition, its subsidiary Finnforest was preparing for a major production cut at the Joutseno pulp mill in 2026 [7]. - Demand: In November, the wood pulp inventory at European ports continued to decline, and demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand was always insufficient, and downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with low procurement willingness, resulting in high port inventory. However, port inventory had been declining in recent weeks, and the continuous expansion of downstream paper production capacity next year would create marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials, which might support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [7].

2026 年 1 月 6 日 豆粕：外围市场普涨，连粕或跟随反弹 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4243 | +10（+0.24%） 4264 | | +5（+0.12%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2754 | -5（-0.18%） 2763 | | +17（+0.62%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1062.25 | +16.25（+1.55%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 299.7 | n a +3.8（+1.28%） | | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 较昨-20至+5； 3060～3120， M2605+350/+380； | 较昨+10； 1月M2605+350/+380， 2-3月 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 06 日星期二 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约跌幅0.18%，收于221 | | | | | 9元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2156元/吨，较前一日涨4元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2257元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日跌4元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格稳中偏弱。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2260-2275元/吨，较前一日跌10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2400元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日持平。 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2740 - 2800. The market is influenced by the interaction of U.S. soybean trends and demand improvement, with news being mixed and short - term oscillation likely [9]. - The soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4200 - 4300. The market is affected by the execution of the China - U.S. trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, with the price supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 2. Recent News - The preliminary China - U.S. tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and U.S. soybean weather are still uncertain. The U.S. market is oscillating above the thousand - point mark [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal rebounded from a low level in December, supporting price expectations [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas, and the impact of the preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement have kept soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of U.S. and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3050, with a basis of 296, indicating a premium over futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 117.02 million tons, a 0.22% increase from last week and a 71.18% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4220, with a basis of - 23, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 710.25 million tons, an 8.53% increase from last week and a 19.48% increase from the same period last year [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume generally increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed in [11]. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Conditions - **Price and Transaction**: The price of soybean meal futures rose and then fell, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a high premium. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17][19][24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed over time, with the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2 showing different trends [21]. - **Supply - Side Conditions**: The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans decreased from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remained high [26][49]. - **Demand - Side Conditions**: The procurement of domestic downstream enterprises rebounded from a low level, and the提货 volume remained at a relatively high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the stocking demand had a good outlook [28][53]. - **International Market**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina in different years were provided, as well as the monthly supply - demand reports of the USDA in the past six months [35][40][45]. - **Livestock Market**: The pig inventory showed an upward trend, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57][59].

Report Information - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **External Market**: During the holiday, the US soybean futures contracts first declined and then stabilized but remained weak overall, with the main contract approaching 1050 cents. The rebound at the end of December was due to the price reaching an important support level and the year - end inventory of US soybeans decreasing year - on - year. Also, the recent export sales of US soybeans were good, with frequent large - order transactions and continuous purchases from China. However, the biggest pressure on the external market came from the approaching South American harvest. Brazilian soybeans entered a critical growth stage, with sufficient rainfall in the main producing areas, and some institutions have raised the production forecast to over 180 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate of 175 million tons and last year's 171.5 million tons. The external market tested the support level of 1050 cents again [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Soybean meal rebounded before the holiday due to rumors of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns. However, the high inventory was difficult to consume, and these positive factors were short - term. The overall bull market in commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, boosted bullish sentiment. But once the market returned to fundamentals, soybean meal might have a catch - up decline, especially the 05 contract, which was mainly priced by Brazilian soybean costs and was unlikely to have a continuous rebound [6]. Operation Suggestions - Short - term, it is recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the support level of the external market [6]. 2. Industry News - **Brazil**: According to Emater, as Rio Grande do Sul entered the final sowing stage, the nutritional growth of the 2025/26 soybean crop in the state was "satisfactory to very good". Emater maintained the average yield forecast at 3180 kg per hectare, a significant increase from the previous season's 2009 kg per hectare affected by drought. If the weather remained favorable, the state's soybean production could reach 21.44 million tons, a 57.14% increase from the previous year. As of last Thursday, 92% of the expected 6.74 million - hectare planting area had been sown, and 98% of the sown crops were in the germination/nutritional growth stage [7]. - **Argentina**: As of December 23, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 77%, up from 65% last week but lower than 88% in the same period last year [9]. 3. Data Overview - Data sources for various figures (including soybean meal factory price, basis of 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate) are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][16]