棕榈油：产地供需两旺，低多为主 豆油：利多交易充分，高位或有回调 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,294 | 涨跌幅 -1.38% | （夜盘） 收盘价 9,386 | 涨跌幅 0.99% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,540 | -0.61% | 8,512 | -0.33% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,852 | -2.16% | 9,767 | -0.86% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,405 | -0.68% | 4,407 | 0.09% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 52.11 | -2.49% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 212,511 | -171541 | 188,258 | -38,522 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 109,913 | -73,760 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on August 14, with soybean futures declining by 1.27% to 1031.00 cents per bushel, while corn futures increased by 0.31% to 398.50 cents per bushel, and wheat futures fell by 0.64% to 504.00 cents per bushel [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures experienced a significant drop of 1.27% [1] - Corn futures showed a slight increase of 0.31% [1] - Wheat futures declined by 0.64% [1]

| | | | V V V SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月14日 | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★★☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★★☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约价格冲高快速回落,市场消化了菜籽反倾销初裁政策之后，菜系产品价格快速回落,也带动 了豆一价格的回落。国产大豆本周五继续竞价拍卖4.4万吨,短期拍卖数量较多,对国产大豆价格带来拖累。美 ...

| Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月14日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，棉花现货主流销售基差暂稳，现货成交一般。纯棉纱本周交投好转，价格稳中略偏强。截至7月底，商业库 在为218.98万吨，环比减少64万吨，同比减少58.8万吨。其中新疆疆内棉花库存为119.83万吨，环比减少52.74万吨，同比减少 35.65万吨，国内7月份库存消化尚可，预计8月份消化环比好转。宏观上市场对于 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - International: The USDA's August supply and demand report lowered the expected yield and ending stocks of US soybeans, causing the CBOT soybean price to reach a one - month high. Malaysia's decision to raise the September palm oil tariff may suppress exports, leading to a high - level correction in Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestic: The inventory of soybean oil continues to rise. Increased exports and the continuation of Sino - US trade risk premiums support the soybean oil price, but short - term profit - taking by bulls puts pressure on the price. The palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly follows the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory remained stable last week but the downward trend persists. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed will significantly restrict imports, resulting in a tight medium - to - long - term supply. With the cooling of market sentiment, the rapeseed oil futures price has basically filled the previous gap [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro and Industry News - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, a 2% upward revision from the previous forecast, with an estimated range of 49.4 - 51 million tons [2]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 are estimated to be 8.8 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 8.15 million tons [2]. - Malaysia has set the export tax for September crude palm oil at 10%, up from 9% in August, with the tax rising by 17.7% from $81.8/ton in August to $96.3/ton [2]. - India's oil imports in July decreased by 10.5% month - on - month, while its vegetable oil imports increased by 2% [2]. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the report Views and Strategies - International: The CBOT soybean price reached a one - month high due to the USDA's report, and the potential suppression of Malaysian palm oil exports by the tariff increase led to a high - level correction in its futures [5]. - Domestic: Different trends are shown for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in terms of inventory, supply - demand, and price movements [6]

Group 1: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The raw sugar price declined slightly due to strong production signs. It's difficult for the raw sugar price to break below the previous low in the short - term, but a bearish view is maintained considering the increasing production pattern. Zheng sugar rebounded due to the strengthening of the commodity market, but the increase in imports and weak terminal demand are expected to keep it bearish after the rebound [2][3] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of "Sugar 2601" was 5657 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; "Sugar 2509" was 5722 yuan/ton, up 0.28%; ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.83 cents/pound, down 0.71%. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar was - 65 yuan/ton, up 33.67%. The position of the main contract increased by 1.22%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [2] - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5970 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The Nanning basis decreased by 2.36%, while the Kunming basis increased by 22.02%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4476 yuan/ton, up 1.24%; (out - quota) was 5686 yuan/ton, up 1.28% [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 (unit not specified), up 12.03% year - on - year. The cumulative sales volume was 811.38 (unit not specified), up 23.07%. The cumulative production in Guangxi was 646.50 (unit not specified), up 4.59%. The monthly sales volume in Guangxi decreased by 3.26%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.59%, up 9.70%; in Guangxi, it was 71.85%, up 8.11%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 9.56%, and in Guangxi, it decreased by 12.23%. The sugar import volume increased by 160%. ISMA predicted that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 34.9 million tons, up 18% year - on - year [2] Group 2: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The corn futures rebounded due to the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and the bullish USDA August report. However, the supply will gradually ease due to continuous import corn auctions and the upcoming new grain harvest in some areas. The market sentiment is weak, and the spot price is stable but weak with a slowing decline. In the short - term, the upward movement of the futures is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long - term [4] Summary by Directory - **Corn Futures**: The price of "Corn 2509" at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2279 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The basis decreased by 47.50%. The 9 - 1 spread was 75 yuan/ton, up 11.94%. The profit of north - south trade decreased by 26.32%. The arrival of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 25.81%. The trading volume decreased by 1.92%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.87% [4] - **Corn Starch**: The price of "Corn Starch 2509" was 2651 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The basis decreased by 9.23%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 21.69%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 10.75%. The position decreased by 4.69%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4] Group 3: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The domestic cotton price may trade in a range in the short - term. The downstream has short - term rigid demand support, but the market lacks confidence in the future improvement, and the cotton price is under pressure [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of "Cotton 2505" was 14090 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; "Cotton 2509" was 13830 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. ICE US cotton主力 was 67.70 cents/pound, down 1.08%. The 5 - 9 spread was 260 yuan/ton, up 48.57%. The position of the main contract increased by 10.41%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.00%, and the effective forecast decreased by 0.35% [7] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15057 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15188 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13697 yuan/ton, up 2.20% [7] - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.8%, the import volume decreased by 25%, the bonded area inventory decreased by 8%, the textile industry's inventory year - on - year decreased by 57.9%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 2.4%, the grey fabric inventory days decreased by 3.0%, the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit increased by 1.8%, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textiles increased by 4.1%, and the year - on - year of the same month decreased by 52.5% [7] Group 4: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory is continuously rising, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, suppressing the spot price. The anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and the USDA report affected the market. The domestic rapeseed meal supply is tightening, and the support from US soybeans is strengthening. It is recommended to hold the previous 01 long positions [9] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 3090 yuan/ton, up 5.10%. The price of M2601 was 3163 yuan/ton, up 2.33%. The basis of M2601 was - 73, up 51.66%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 17.7% [9] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 2660 yuan/ton, up 3.83%. The price of RM2601 was 2688 yuan/ton, up 4.92%. The basis of RM2601 was - 28. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract of "Bean 1" was 4107 yuan/ton, up 1.81%. The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3700 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The price of the main contract of "Bean 2" was 3829 yuan/ton, up 2.00% [9] Group 5: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of live pigs stabilized, and the downstream procurement was smooth. However, the farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices supported the price. The supply and demand are both weak. The group farms' slaughter is expected to continue to recover in August, and the future price is not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, with strong support at the bottom, but the impact of hedging funds needs attention [11] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract increased by 31.30%. The price of "Pig 2511" was 14045 yuan/ton, down 1.30%; "Pig 2601" was 14295 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The 11 - 1 spread decreased by 28.21%. The position of the main contract increased by 8.78% [11] - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 13900 yuan/ton, up 50; in Shandong was 13800 yuan/ton, up 200; in Sichuan was 13500 yuan/ton, up 50; in Liaoning was 13350 yuan/ton, up 50; in Guangdong was 13860 yuan/ton, up 100; in Hunan was 13800 yuan/ton, up 50; in Hebei was 13800 yuan/ton, up 50 [11] - **Industry Indicators**: The daily sample slaughter volume increased by 0.50%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.25%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.70%, the weekly sow price increased by 0.03%, and the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.14% [11] Group 6: Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise and may approach 4500 ringgit and even break through to 4580 - 4600 ringgit. The domestic palm oil futures may also follow suit and may冲击 10000 yuan. Soybean oil: The US Department of Agriculture's report increased the supply data of soybean oil in 2025/26. Although the ending inventory increased, the decrease in US soybean production and ending inventory boosted the short - term rise of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil. The domestic spot price rose with the market, and the basis quotation fluctuated slightly [15] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8840 yuan/ton, up 1.96%. The price of Y2601 was 8592 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. The basis increased by 36.26% [15] - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9380 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The price of P2601 was 9424 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The basis increased by 56.86% [15] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10260 yuan/ton, up 5.12%. The price of OI601 was 10069 yuan/ton, up 2.72%. The basis increased by 554.76% [15] Group 7: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price has reached a phased low, and the downstream may increase procurement, which will support the price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - storage eggs may suppress the price increase. The egg futures are expected to remain bearish, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [17][18] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3277 yuan/500KG, down 1.03%; the 10 contract was 3185 yuan/500KG, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 19.19%, and the 9 - 10 spread decreased by 19.30% [17] - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged at 3.85 yuan/feather, the price of culled chickens was 5.67 yuan/jin, down 3.57%, the egg - feed ratio was 2.45, down 7.20%, and the breeding profit was - 21.44 yuan/feather, down 111.23% [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal market, although the new - season US soybeans are expected to be in good harvest, the lack of substantial progress in Sino - US policies and the rising Brazilian premium have supported the soybean meal price. In the short term, the fundamentals will not change significantly, and policies and Brazilian premium will be important price - influencing factors [3] - For the corn market, the low remaining grain in the domestic market provides some support, but the weak market sentiment and low demand mean there is a lack of upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn yield [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3163 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton (+2.33%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+2.64%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2980 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2690 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2279 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.84%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2651 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.3 US Department of Agriculture's August Supply - Demand Report - Soybeans: The estimated harvest area for the 2025/26 US soybeans was 80.104 million acres, lower than the market expectation. The yield per acre was 53.6 bushels, higher than expected. The production was 4.292 billion bushels, slightly lower than expected, and the ending stocks were 290 million bushels, a three - year low [2] - Corn: The estimated sown area for the 2025/26 US corn was 97.3 million acres, the harvested area was 88.7 million acres, the yield per acre was 188.8 bushels, the production was 16.742 billion bushels, the export volume was 2.875 billion bushels, and the ending stocks were 2.117 billion bushels, all higher than the July estimates [4] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal Market - The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with a high - level growth situation in five years. The weather is favorable, and the expectation of a good harvest is strong. However, the lack of progress in Sino - US policies has caused market concerns. Domestically, although the soybean supply is sufficient and the soybean meal inventory is rising, the rising Brazilian premium and lack of policy progress have supported the price [3] 3.2.2 Corn Market - Domestically, the low remaining grain provides some support, but the weak market sentiment and low demand mean there is a lack of upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn yield [5] 3.3 Strategy - For the soybean meal market, the strategy is neutral [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The August USDA supply - demand report unexpectedly lowered the new - season US soybean planting area, which is bullish. The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on 8400, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade relationship is the focus. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. The price is expected to rise, with support at 9500 - 9510 and pressure at 10450 - 10490 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, which is bullish. Hold long positions, with support at 8800 - 8828 and pressure at 9900 - 9910 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No.2**: The August USDA report is bullish. Due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal and consider long positions in the 09 contract of bean No.2 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The uncertainty of Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. Adopt a low - buying strategy, with support at 2617 - 2621 and pressure at 2960 - 2963 [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The USDA report is bearish for the external market. In the domestic market, although there are signs of tightening imports, the fundamental pressure remains. Suggest reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts [6]. - **Bean No.1**: The USDA report is bullish, but the new domestic soybeans are gradually coming to the market. Consider exiting short positions in the main contract and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. - **Peanuts**: The inventory is low, but the new - season planting area increases. The price is under pressure in the long - term, but the 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term [8]. - **Hogs**: The feed price rebounds, and the de - capacity expectation is strengthened. Hold long positions in the 11 - contract [9]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is at a low level, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. Be cautious about short - selling, and radical investors can consider buying the 10 - contract [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No.1 11 - contract may fluctuate, consider light - short positions; Bean No.2 09 - contract may be bullish, consider light - long positions; Peanut 10 - contract may rebound, consider light - long short - term positions [12]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions; Rapeseed oil 09 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Palm 09 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions [12]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 01 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Rapeseed meal 09 - contract may rise, buy at low positions [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts; Corn starch 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hog 11 - contract may rebound, hold long positions; Egg 10 - contract may find the bottom, wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, consider positive spread operations; for hogs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, consider positive spread operations at low positions [13][14]. - **Inter - variety**: For 09 soybean oil - palm oil, adopt a bearish operation; for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, adopt a bullish operation; for 09 soybean oil - meal ratio, consider long positions [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and开机率 of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory,开机率, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Hogs**: It provides the daily and weekly data of hog prices, piglet prices, pork wholesale prices, pig - grain ratio, etc. [21][25]. - **Eggs**: It provides the daily and weekly data of egg prices, culled chicken prices, production rate, inventory, etc. [22][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - **Livestock Farming End (Hogs, Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of hog and egg futures contracts, spot prices, piglet prices, chicken prices, etc. [27][35] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes the production, inventory, export, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][53] - **Feed End**: It includes the inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseeds, and soybean meal [56][69] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility and trading volume data of options related to various varieties [74][75] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [77][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Bullish Oscillation | | Protein Meal | Oscillation | | Corn and Starch | Bearish Oscillation | | Hogs | Oscillation | | Natural Rubber and 20 - rubber | Oscillation | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillation | | Cotton | Bullish Oscillation | | Sugar | Oscillation | | Pulp | Oscillation | | Logs | Bearish Oscillation | [7][8][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple favorable factors drive the oils and fats market to run strongly. Protein meal is affected by emotions and supply pressure. Corn shows signs of restocking downstream. Hog futures are expected to correct. Rubber experiences a pull - back after a rise. Synthetic rubber has limited variables. Pulp is considered bullish in the short - term. Cotton prices are boosted by a reduction in US cotton production. Sugar prices rebound due to supply expectation adjustments. Logs are affected by new warehouse receipt pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: USDA's August report unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, increased the yield per acre by 1.1 bushels to 53.6 bushels, and cut the expected yield by 1.16 million tons to 116.82 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons [1][7]. - **Logic**: Multiple factors contributed to the rise of domestic oils. From a macro perspective, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the US - China tariff policy is extended. From an industrial perspective, the reduction in US soybean area and production, lower - than - expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia, and anti - dumping rulings on Canadian rapeseed are positive. However, US soybean growth is good, and palm oil is in the production season [2][7]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is likely to continue to run strongly in the near future [3][7]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 13, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also increased [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is tightening. Domestically, there is short - term inventory pressure, but long - term demand is expected to increase. The anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is positive for the far - month [8]. - **Outlook**: The market pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weakness and far - term strength will continue. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low prices [8]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: The prices of corn in Jinzhou Port and the domestic average showed small changes. The closing price of the main contract increased [10]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable to weak, with supply inventory being digested and demand being weak. There are signs of restocking in South China ports. New - season corn production is normal [10]. - **Outlook**: There is uncertainty in the short - term due to old - crop de - stocking, and there is a downward drive after new - crop listing [10]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 13, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased slightly, and the futures price decreased [11]. - **Logic**: After the end of the symposium, the market hype subsided. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume increases. In the medium - term, the supply will increase. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog futures market fluctuates greatly. The spot and near - term have high - weight inventory pressure, while the far - term has a bullish expectation. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Cambodia's latex exports decreased in the first 7 months of 2025 [14]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices adjusted after a rise. It is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid [14]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed increases [16]. - **Logic**: The BR futures followed natural rubber to adjust. It is affected by natural rubber sentiment and raw material cost support. The supply of butadiene is tight, and downstream demand is good [16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the futures may run strongly in an oscillatory manner [16]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the number of registered warehouse receipts and the closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA report cut US cotton production, tightening global supply. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. The suspension of tariffs boosts market confidence [17]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly before new - flower listing [17]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts increased [18]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short - term, supply pressure increases seasonally, but the rebound of the external market supports the domestic market [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices have a downward drive; in the short - term, they are expected to run in the range of 5600 - 5900 [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong increased [18]. - **Logic**: The pulp fundamentals are weak, with high supply and weak demand overseas. However, the price is at a low level, and the negative factors have been fully priced in [18]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [18]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price weakened due to new warehouse receipt pressure. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. There is a marginal improvement in fundamentals [20]. - **Outlook**: The log futures are expected to run in the range of 800 - 850 [20].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed higher, reaching a one - and - a - half - month high, and the upward trend is expected to drive the DCE soybean meal to follow a relatively strong oscillation. The DCE soybean is expected to have a corrective oscillation [1][3]. - The significant reduction in the USDA's soybean production forecast due to a large cut in planting area is the main reason for the increase in soybean prices [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 4107 yuan/ton during the day session, up 74 yuan (+1.83%), and 4080 yuan/ton at night, down 7 yuan (-0.17%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3163 yuan/ton during the day session, up 89 yuan (+2.90%), and 3166 yuan/ton at night, up 21 yuan (+0.67%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1042 cents/bushel, up 9.75 cents (+0.94%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 297.2 dollars/short ton, up 5.4 dollars (+1.85%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal (43%) price is 3080 - 3110 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China, it is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton; in South China, it is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 7.46 million tons per day, and the inventory was 96.09 million tons per week [1]. Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher for the third consecutive day, reaching a one - and - a - half - month high. The USDA significantly reduced the soybean production forecast due to a 2.5 million - acre cut in planting area, which was far lower than market expectations [3]. - Analysts expect the net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons for the week ending August 7 to be 200,000 - 700,000 tons and 400,000 - 900,000 tons respectively [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean is 0 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the day session on the reporting day) [3].