1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is in a situation of both supply and demand booming, with short - term oscillations showing a strong tendency. The core contradiction lies in the sentiment and the expected changes in fundamentals. Before the large - scale factory's actual resumption of production, the market is expected to be strong with oscillations, and it is advisable to participate by taking long positions on dips. After the actual resumption of production, short - term operations can be considered based on valuation [4]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon fundamentals are bearish, but the consensus of non - selling below cost provides strong support for the futures price. The downward decline of polysilicon futures is limited, and there will be continuous positive news disturbances. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the price range referring to (48000, 55000) [52]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Weekly Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 51,400 tons, a 0.39% increase; the weekly output of polysilicon was 29,200 tons, a 2.85% increase; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a 1 - percentage - point increase, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.9%, remaining flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a 1.50% increase. The number of open furnaces increased by 10. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% decrease. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon in August will increase to 385,000 tons, and the production will be about 370,000 tons, with inventory reduction in August [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The production of silicone and polysilicon has increased significantly recently, leading to a significant increase in the demand for industrial silicon. The cost of industrial silicon has increased due to the rise in the price of Ningxia refined coal and thermal coal. The core contradiction in the current industrial silicon market lies in the sentiment and the expected changes in fundamentals [4]. - **Strategies**: Before the large - scale factory's confirmed resumption of production, take long positions on dips. For options, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, look for opportunities to conduct reverse arbitrage on the 11th and 12th contracts [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot prices of industrial silicon showed mixed trends, with prices in Yunnan generally decreasing by 50 - 150 yuan/ton and prices in other industrial areas slightly increasing [8]. - **Downstream Demand**: The output of DMC and polysilicon increased slightly, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly. The short - term operating rate of silicone is gradually increasing, and the output of polysilicon is also slightly increasing [11][14]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: This week, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a 1.50% increase. The number of open furnaces increased by 10. If the large - scale factory in Xinjiang increases the number of open furnaces as expected at the end of the month, the production of industrial silicon in September will increase to 380,000 - 390,000 tons [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, while the factory inventory increased slightly. The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% decrease [21]. - **Related Product Prices**: The spot prices of industrial silicon showed mixed trends, and the price of silicon powder weakened. The prices of DMC and its terminal products also weakened [29][33]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of Ningxia refined coal increased slightly [45]. Polysilicon Weekly Report Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: In August, polysilicon enterprises plan to increase production significantly, with an expected output of 125,000 tons. The silicon wafer production schedule in August is basically the same as that in July, resulting in an oversupply of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. The factory inventory of polysilicon is 267,000 tons, and it is expected to continue the inventory - building trend in August [52]. - **Price Analysis**: The spot price of polysilicon has upward pressure in the short term, but it is difficult to decline significantly before the consensus of non - selling below cost is broken. The downward decline of polysilicon futures is limited, and there will be continuous positive news disturbances. The short - term price range is expected to be (48000, 55000) [52]. - **Strategies**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with the price range referring to (48000, 55000). For arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts, with the target range referring to (- 1500, - 1000) [53]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Price**: This week, the spot quotes of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable. The transaction prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased slightly [69]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries showed mixed trends, and the prices of components showed both increases and decreases. The prices of some silicon wafers remained stable, while some decreased slightly. The battery prices showed a downward trend in some cases but may increase in the future. The component prices in distributed projects increased slightly in some cases, while those in centralized projects decreased slightly [73][74]. - **Component Fundamentals**: Overseas demand has decreased, and domestic component demand is weak in the short term. The domestic component inventory is 34.5GW, showing a slight increase. The production schedule of component enterprises has increased slightly to about 45GW [82]. - **Battery Fundamentals**: The overseas demand for small - sized batteries has improved, but manufacturers are cautious about production scheduling. The expected production schedule of photovoltaic batteries in August is about 50GW [88]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamentals**: The operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises has changed little, and the weekly output has increased to 12.01GW. The silicon wafer inventory remains stable at around 20GW, and the expected output in August is 52GW, basically the same as that in July [92]. - **Polysilicon Fundamentals**: The weekly output of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased to 267,800 tons. It is expected that the output in August will increase to 125,000 - 130,000 tons, and may further increase to 135,000 - 140,000 tons in September [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon showed a strong and volatile trend, mainly due to the strong price - holding atmosphere in each link of the photovoltaic industry chain. The polysilicon market had a lot of "rumors", but market transactions were relatively limited, and the anti - involution sentiment continued to ferment. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile and strong operation in the short term [2][3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 8/15 Price | 8/8 Price | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8805.00 | 8710.00 | 95.00 | 1.09% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - passing 553 spot | 9400.00 | 9250.00 | 150.00 | 1.62% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - passing 553 spot | 9200.00 | 9100.00 | 100.00 | 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9750.00 | 9700.00 | 50.00 | 0.52% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 9600.00 | 9500.00 | 100.00 | 1.05% | Yuan/ton | | Silicone DMC spot | 11400.00 | 12150.00 | - 750.00 | - 6.17% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 46.00 | 44.00 | 2.00 | 4.55% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 54.5 | 54.7 | - 0.2 | - 0.37% | 10,000 tons | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply side**: The operating rate in Xinjiang rose to 57%, and the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increased month - on - month, showing a marginally loose supply situation. As of August 14, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas remained at 280, and the overall open - furnace rate slightly rose to 35.2% [6][7][8]. - **Demand side**: Polysilicon enterprises had a strong price - holding atmosphere, but transactions were limited near the end of the signing period. The inventory in the silicon wafer market decreased significantly, and most integrated enterprises tended to reduce production. Photovoltaic cell manufacturers mainly executed existing orders, and there might be resistance to the increase in domestic export orders. The component end showed a weak and volatile trend, and terminal demand was poor [2][6][8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise to 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The automotive and photovoltaic industries held symposiums against disorderly competition. In 2024, the production capacity of Chinese chip manufacturers increased by 15%. In 2025, domestic wafer foundries will be the main force in the increase of mature - process production capacity, but price trends will be suppressed. Some enterprises are exploring ways to break through the low - level competition dilemma, such as Ruixin Micro focusing on basic capabilities and high - end markets [11]. - In the second half of 2025, the DDR4 market was in short supply, and prices rose strongly. The tight supply and demand in the DDR market also pushed up the contract price of Mobile DRAM. The third - quarter increase in LPDDR4X was the largest in a single quarter in the past decade. The demand for semiconductor hardware was growing steadily, and the storage sector was expected to continue to rise in the third and fourth quarters [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including those related to industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production in major production areas, and prices of various products such as organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and industrial silicon [15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Under the fundamental logic, it fluctuates in a narrow range, and the long - term logic is under pressure. However, there are frequent events in Indonesia, so be vigilant against the risk of news - driven stimulation [4]. - Stainless steel: The pressure at the real - end still needs to be continuously alleviated, and the steel price fluctuates [5]. - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories [34]. - Polysilicon: There will be more event disturbances next week. The main idea is to go long on dips [35]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply is weak while demand is strong, and the price is strengthening [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The marginal operation of the fundamentals is relatively stable. The global refined nickel's visible inventory shows a gentle increase, dragging down the upper limit of nickel prices. The long - term low - cost supply increment may change the cost curve pattern. In the short - term and the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation may be at the window boundary of the ferronickel conversion path. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, slightly boosting the upper limit of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The overall decline of the ore price is relatively mild, and the support has weakened slightly, but it is still difficult for the price to fall sharply. The hype of nickel ore contradictions may decrease, limiting the elasticity of nickel prices [4]. - **Market News Impact**: Indonesia may crack down on illegal mining, change the RKAB approval cycle, and re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula. These events increase the risk of short - selling at low levels and add uncertainty to the nickel price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,963 tons to 41,286 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons [6][7]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The pressure at the real - end still needs to be continuously alleviated. The long - side logic focuses on the decline of inventory at a high level, the reduction of factory inventory pressure in July, and the potential reduction in supply due to policy tightening. The short - side logic comes from the actual supply - demand situation, where the alleviation of pressure needs to be continuous, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Social inventory has declined slightly for five consecutive weeks, and the factory inventory pressure in July has decreased. The stainless steel production in August is 3.25 million tons, with a marginal increase. The production in Indonesia in August is 420,000 tons [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated this week, and the spot price increased. The futures price first rose, then fell, and then rose again, influenced by other varieties and macro - sentiment. The spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia increased [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. Factories in the southwest and northwest regions had some resumptions, but the rhythm was slow. On the demand side, the short - term demand of downstream industries increased marginally, with the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supporting consumption [31][32]. - **Market Outlook**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large - scale resumption, the futures price may follow the coking coal futures, but the long - term fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high levels and take profits at low levels [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated widely this week, showing a relatively strong trend overall. The spot market had some transactions, but the price did not show obvious improvement [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production remained at a high level, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand from the silicon wafer side improved, and the production in August increased slightly compared with July [32][33]. - **Market Outlook**: There will be more event disturbances next week. The main idea is to go long on dips. The spot market's signing is approaching the end, and the terminal demand may decrease in September. It is recommended to take profit on the PS2511 - PS2512 inter - period positive spread and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price increased significantly, and the spot price also rose. The SMM basis and the spread between contracts changed accordingly [54]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, production in Jiangxi and Qinghai was affected, and there were concerns about future production. On the demand side, the downstream production demand in August improved significantly. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the number of futures warrants increased [55]. - **Market Outlook**: Due to supply disturbances, the lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month. If the downstream demand in September strengthens, the price will continue to be strong. The futures main contract price is expected to range from 85,000 to 95,000 yuan/ton [56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [6] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries are weak, but the market is driven by events. The short - term investment strategies for industrial silicon and polysilicon are recommended, while the long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 95 yuan/ton to 8805 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1950 yuan/ton to 52740 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 200 yuan/ton to 47400 yuan/ton [10][11] 3.2 Fundamentals Are Weak, but the Market Is Driven by Events 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. New furnaces were opened in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Gansu, and Ningxia. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.11 million tons. Xinjiang's large factories have further复产 plans. Considering the remaining time of the wet season, the later - stage increase in southern production is limited. Downstream maintains rigid demand procurement. In July, the industrial silicon balance sheet showed a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons. In August, the supply side is expected to have a marginal increase of about 40,000 tons, but due to the large - scale复产 of polysilicon, industrial silicon may still de - stock [12] 3.2.2 Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon fluctuated downward. The production load of monomer factories remained stable. Hesheng's Sichuan plant plans to resume production. The overall enterprise operating rate was 77.7%, the weekly output was 51,400 tons, a 0.39% increase, and the inventory was 48,500 tons, a 2.97% increase. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and the price is expected to be weak [12][13] 3.2.3 Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly. Spot trading changed little. The factory inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 242,000 tons. Although the price limit has been implemented, production cuts have not started. The output in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 tons. Terminal demand is weak, but the futures market is more affected by policies and news [13] 3.2.4 Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers was stable overall, with some models slightly decreasing. The inventory increased by 0.69GW to 19.80GW. The production schedule in August is 53GW. Terminal demand is weak, but silicon wafer manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. In the short term, the price may fluctuate and may decline later [14] 3.2.5 Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells was stable. The inventory increased by 1.12GW to 4.98GW. The production schedule in August is about 58GW. The price increase of battery cells was not smoothly transmitted to the component link. With the possible extension of the component export tax - refund cancellation policy, the price of battery cells is expected to decline [15] 3.2.6 Components - This week, the price of components fluctuated. The price of centralized projects showed signs of loosening, and the distributed spot price was temporarily stalemate. The production schedule is 45GW. Overseas demand decreased due to the possible policy extension. Domestic centralized power stations are still waiting and watching. The market logic may put pressure on component prices, and policy support is needed [16] 3.3 Investment Recommendations 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - Based on the reality of Xinjiang's large factories'复产 falling short of expectations and the large - scale increase in polysilicon production, the fundamentals of industrial silicon have improved and are in a de - stocking state. However, considering the future复产 of large factories and polysilicon production cuts, the fundamentals are not optimistic. In the short term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, with the risk being the large factories'复产 [3][17] 3.3.2 Polysilicon - The fundamentals are bearish for the market. Middle - section deliverable enterprises are actively hedging, and more warehouse receipts will be registered. The market has strong speculative properties and is supported at 49,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price may range from 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, and in the long term, it is expected to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of bullish on pullbacks is recommended, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity at about - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3.4 Hot News - The US launched anti - dumping and counter - vailing investigations on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The ITC will make an initial ruling on industrial damage by September 2, 2025. If it rules in favor, the US Department of Commerce will continue the investigation and make initial rulings on counter - vailing and anti - dumping by October 13, 2025, and December 26, 2025, respectively [19] - Xingfa's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia was highly recognized by a joint observation group. The project is a strategic project in Inner Mongolia, and after completion, it will be the first industrial silicon production base in Wuhai to achieve ultra - low emissions of electric furnace flue gas [20] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Core View - Supply side: Rainfall in the producing areas may affect the release of new rubber, and the raw material procurement price is strong. Future focus is on the raw material situation during the peak production period. Demand side: Current channel trading is average, some agents replenish goods as needed and mainly control inventory. Terminal demand has no obvious improvement, and channels are cautious about restocking. Market sentiment has cooled recently. If the raw material volume increases smoothly during the peak production period, consider short - selling at high prices [2]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14,800 yuan/ton. The basis of whole milk switched to the 2509 contract increased by 165 yuan/ton to - 832 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 16.50%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37% [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 1000 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.99%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.33%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1065 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.47% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, a 44.23% increase; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a 12.03% decrease; India's production was 62,400 tons, a 30.82% increase; China's production was 103,200 tons, a 6.8 - ton increase. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 percentage points to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a 0.74% increase; tire export volume was 60.31 million pieces, a 2.44% decrease; natural rubber import volume was 463,400 tons, a 2.21% increase [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 8,614 tons to 631,770 tons, a decline of 1.35%; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,519 tons to 42,235 tons, a growth of 6.34% [2]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Core View - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the main contract has rebounded. Although the market is not optimistic about the capacity clearance and self - discipline of industrial silicon, in the context of the anti - involution policy, the overall operating price center of commodities has moved up, and industrial silicon is no exception. The cost of raw materials such as coal may increase, which will push up the cost of industrial silicon and raise the future price center. In August, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market both increase, and it is expected to reach a tight balance. The main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips. The inventory has increased, but the warehouse receipts are still decreasing. The main contract has shifted to SI2511, and the position of the 09 contract has decreased to about 50,000 lots. Technically, the hourly line has weakened, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis of the Main Contract**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 725 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.38%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,750 yuan/ton; the basis (based on SI4210) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton, a decline of 21.43% [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 900.00%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton, a growth of 85.71% [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, a 3.23% increase; Xinjiang's production was 150,300 tons, a 15.21% decrease; Yunnan's production was 41,200 tons, a 153.86% increase; Sichuan's production was 48,500 tons, a 31.05% increase. The national operating rate was 52.61%, a 2.47% increase; Xinjiang's operating rate was 52.59%, an 18.21% decrease; Yunnan's operating rate was 32.89%, a 133.76% increase; Sichuan's operating rate was 36.96%, a 56.81% increase. Organic silicon DMC production was 199,800 tons, a 4.54% decrease; polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, a 5.10% increase; recycled aluminum alloy production was 625,000 tons, a 1.63% increase; industrial silicon export volume was 68,300 tons, a 22.77% increase [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 tons to 11,700 tons, a growth of 0.09%; Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 tons to 3,140 tons, a growth of 2.61%; Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 tons to 2,260 tons, a decline of 0.88%. Social inventory decreased by 0.20 tons to 54,500 tons, a decline of 0.37%; warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged at 25,350 tons; non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.20 tons to 29,150 tons, a decline of 0.67% [4]. Group 3: Polysilicon Core View - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is larger, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. Due to the previous sharp price increase above the full - cost level, it is expected that the number of warehouse receipts will further increase. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, polysilicon prices are expected to rise again. Otherwise, it may fluctuate and decline under the pressure of inventory and warehouse receipt increase. Currently, there are news of production restrictions, and future attention should be paid to the enterprise's operating conditions and production changes. The main price fluctuation range may be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. After the price returns to the lower edge of the cost range, consider buying on dips. When the price is high, consider buying put options to short. The position of the 09 contract has decreased to about 18,000 lots, and investors are advised to pay attention to position control and risk management in advance [5]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material (average price) increased by 860 yuan/ton to - 3,430 yuan/ton, a growth of 20.05%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210mm) decreased by 0.01 yuan/piece to 1.54 yuan/piece, a decline of 0.65% [5]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 860 yuan/ton to 50,430 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.68%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 975 yuan/ton to - 740 yuan/ton, a decline of 414.89% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 tons to 29,300 tons; silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 GW to 12.1 GW. Monthly polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, a 5.10% increase; polysilicon import volume was 80 tons, a 16.90% decrease; polysilicon export volume was 210 tons, a 66.17% increase; polysilicon net export volume was 130 tons, a 323.61% increase. Silicon wafer production was 52.75 GW, a 10.35% decrease; silicon wafer import volume was 70 tons, a 15.29% decrease; silicon wafer export volume was 550 tons, a 12.97% decrease; silicon wafer net export volume was 480 tons, a 12.59% decrease; silicon wafer demand was 58.54 GW, a 0.21% increase [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 tons to 24,200 tons, a growth of 3.86%; silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 GW to 19.8 GW, a growth of 3.61%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 330 to 5,480 [5]. Group 4: Logs Core View - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side currently remains strong at the level of 64,000 cubic meters. The inventory has significantly decreased due to fewer unloading ports and strong shipment volume. From the perspective of shipments from New Zealand, it is expected that the overall shipments in August will be the same as in July. Currently, short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term demand improvement needs to be verified. This week, the futures market was weakened by new warehouse receipts. Technically, the market is in a downward correction trend. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/cubic meter. At low prices, there may be long - position buyers. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market stabilizes [6]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Log 2509 decreased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to 809.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.43%; the price of Log 2511 decreased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to 828.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.66%; the price of Log 2601 decreased by 7.5 yuan/cubic meter to 838.0 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.89%. The spread between 9 - 11 increased by 2.0 yuan/cubic meter to - 18.5 yuan/cubic meter; the spread between 9 - 1 increased by 4.0 yuan/cubic meter to - 28.5 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the 09 contract increased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 59.5 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 11 contract increased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 78.0 yuan/cubic meter; the basis of the 01 contract increased by 7.5 yuan/cubic meter to - 88.0 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter; the price of 3.9A medium radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 750 yuan/cubic meter; the price of 3.9A large radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 860 yuan/cubic meter [6]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.01 to 7.173, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 1.00 yuan/cubic meter to 817.60 yuan/cubic meter [6]. - **Monthly Data**: The port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 27,000 cubic meters to 1.733 million cubic meters, a decline of 1.51%. The number of departing ships decreased by 6 to 47, a decline of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory and Demand**: As of August 8, the national coniferous log inventory was 3.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters, a decline of 2.84%. The average daily shipment volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous period [6]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Core View - **Soda Ash**: Recent information from Qinghai has affected the market sentiment, but it has no impact on the supply in Qinghai for now. The weekly production has significantly rebounded, and the inventory has returned to the accumulation stage, with obvious overall over - supply in the fundamentals. Recently, the spot sales have weakened. In the medium term, after the photovoltaic installation rush in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity has slowed down, the float glass production capacity has remained flat, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, with a further cold - repair expectation. Therefore, there is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. In August, which is the traditional summer maintenance season for the soda ash industry, track the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants. The previous market increase was due to news, and consider short - selling at high prices [7]. - **Glass**: The market has been weak recently, and the negative feedback in the market continues. After the previous sharp price increase, the inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - stream traders and futures - cash traders, and the futures - cash inventory in Shahe has reached a new high. In the future, there may be a rush to sell during the shipment process. In Hubei, the inventory has also shifted, and the middle - stream faces shipment pressure, which will squeeze the manufacturers' shipments. Therefore, it is difficult to further increase the overall spot price. Fundamentally, the deep - processing orders are weak, the operating rate of low - emissivity glass is continuously low, and there is certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long run, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear the excess capacity to solve the dilemma. In August, track the implementation of local policies and the restocking performance of downstream enterprises near the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Currently, the market sentiment has declined, and short positions can be held, while being vigilant about the market fluctuations caused by macro - factors [7]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of glass in North China remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton; the price of glass in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,220 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.81%. The price of Glass 2505 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,316 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.61%; the price of Glass 2509 decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,053 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%. The 05 basis decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 166 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.06% [7]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of soda ash in North China remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan/ton; the price of soda ash in East China decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,250 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.85%. The price of Soda Ash 2505 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 1,452 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.04%; the price of Soda Ash 2509 increased by 18 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.25%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 102 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.24% [7]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash increased by 2.24 percentage

Group 1: Report Overall Information - The report is the Black Building Materials Daily on August 15, 2025, covering various black building materials such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1] Group 2: Steel Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 109,055 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2382 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.636544 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 16,049 lots [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3432 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 78,386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.291831 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 62,005 lots [2] Spot Market - The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products showed a weak and volatile trend. This week, the export volume declined slightly, and the overall export remained weak [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for rebar decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate increased. For hot - rolled coils, demand rebounded significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise marginally, steel mills' profit levels are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's ability to absorb is obviously insufficient [3] - With the Politburo meeting concluded and the "anti - involution" sentiment gradually cooling down, market sentiment has become more rational, and the futures price trend has started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Market - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 775.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.52% (-20.00), and the position changed by - 462 lots to 452,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 907,500 lots [5] Spot Market - The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 771 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.12 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. On the shipment side, shipments from Australia continued to decline month - on - month due to mine maintenance, shipments from Brazil increased month - on - month, and shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly month - on - month [6] - In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron output according to Steel Union data was 2.4066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the utilization rate of the production capacity of previously restarted blast furnaces [6] - In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased significantly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken this week, and the decline in rebar consumption data was obvious [6] - From a fundamental perspective, the current supply side is in the traditional shipment off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has started to decline after raw material prices reached a relatively high level. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in pig iron may be limited [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6050 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) continued to weaken, closing down 0.86% at 5744 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 156 yuan/ton [8] Market Analysis - From a daily - line perspective, the futures price of manganese silicon is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate at the right time [9] - For ferrosilicon, the futures price is also above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. Similar to manganese silicon, investment positions are advised to wait and see, and hedging positions can participate as appropriate [9] - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1, the "anti - involution" trading has affected the market. As the sentiment of Supply - side 2.0 cools down, the market is squeezing out the over - valued part, driving prices down. Currently, sentiment still has a significant impact on the futures price [10] - In the short - term, it is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, and it is better to wait and see. However, hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10] - Fundamentally, the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed due to "anti - involution." For ferrosilicon, there has been no obvious change, and it is expected that in the future, there will be a marginal weakening of demand for manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector [11] Group 5: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Yesterday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,051 lots to 535,123 lots [13] - In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 525 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 275 yuan/ton [13] - The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not fundamentally changed. In August, the operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to increase, and downstream demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur [14] Polysilicon - Yesterday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 50,430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.68% (-860). The weighted contract position changed by - 4414 lots to 310,109 lots [15] - In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 44.5 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was - 3430 yuan/ton [15] - In July, "anti - involution" and the expectation of a polysilicon industry capacity integration plan drove prices up rapidly. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and downstream silicon wafer production has increased to some extent, but silicon materials are likely to accumulate inventory. The price of downstream distributed components has increased and then回调, and whether the price increase chain in the industry can be smoothly transmitted to the end - user remains to be seen [16] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday, the spot price in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price in Central China was 1120 yuan, also unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million weight boxes (+2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [18] - After the Politburo meeting, market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices回调 significantly. Currently, the market sentiment has basically been digested. Glass production continues to increase, inventory pressure has increased, and downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly [18] - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro sentiment. If there are substantial policies in the real - estate sector, futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is needed for significant price increases [18] Soda Ash - The spot price was 1280 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons (0.94%) from Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1338 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1100 tons [19] - The downstream float glass operating rate increased slightly, and the photovoltaic glass operating rate decreased and then stabilized. Downstream buyers are waiting and seeing, and procurement enthusiasm has slowed down. Soda ash production facilities are operating stably, and inventory pressure has increased, but heavy - soda ash inventory has decreased slightly [19] - In the short term, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, supply - side and market sentiment will have a greater impact on prices, and the price center is expected to gradually rise, but the room for price increases will be limited due to the slow improvement of downstream demand [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards short - term bearish sentiment but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and macro - economic data. Different metals show different price trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped below 79,000 yuan. Copper prices may adjust to 78,500 yuan under the resistance above. The spot copper price was 79,435 yuan, with the premium in Guangdong expanding to 60 yuan and in Shanghai to 210 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 125,600 tons. High - position short positions are recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined, and the spot in East China turned to a premium of 10 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory slightly increased by 0.1 million tons, while aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen above 50,000 tons. There is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures market [2] Zinc - The fundamentals of supply increase and demand weakness establish the logic of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and long positions are being reduced. The term structure of Shanghai zinc is flattening, which helps to make hidden inventory visible. SMM zinc social inventory has continued to rise to 129,200 tons. LME zinc inventory is as low as 78,500 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is 42.1%. The fundamentals are stronger overseas than in China, and it is difficult to open the import window. The import concentrate TC has room for further rebound. As the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the downward adjustment space of zinc is limited. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Smelter maintenance and restart coexist, demand is insufficient, and short positions are increasing. As delivery approaches, the spot - futures spread is narrowing. Refined - scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and downstream buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has improved, with a preference for primary lead. There is limited downward space for Shanghai lead under cost support. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, focusing on the implementation of regular smelter maintenance in late August [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and market trading is active. As the "anti - involution" theme in the domestic market comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals more quickly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened recently. Ferronickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 million tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. It is recommended to actively enter short positions as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [6] Tin - The intraday decline of Shanghai tin has widened to below 268,000 yuan. It is recommended that downstream and mid - stream enterprises choose low - price points for pricing. The spot tin price has been reduced by 700 yuan to 269,500 yuan. Short - term long positions can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuates, and market trading is active. There is no clear trading theme in the market, and there are significant long - position profit - taking orders. The issue of September delivery limits the upside space. The spot price is 81,000 yuan. Downstream inquiries are active, and spot market transactions have improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. There is an obvious transfer of cargo rights, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as prices decline. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly $1,000 [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has reduced positions and closed at 8,675 yuan/ton. It is difficult to achieve capacity self - discipline and clearance, and market sentiment is mainly affected by the linkage of "anti - involution" varieties. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remains stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. Against the background of increased production by large enterprises in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, the inventory in delivery warehouses has increased significantly, and there is still hedging pressure in the high - price range of the futures market. SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Supported by photovoltaic policy expectations, there is strong support below the futures market. It will mainly fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has closed down above 50,000 yuan/ton. The recent correction is partly due to the sentiment transmission from the coking coal variety. On the spot side, according to SMM, the expected output of polysilicon in August will increase to over 130,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons), the increase in downstream silicon wafer production schedules is limited, and high inventory suppresses the upward elasticity of the spot price. The price of N - type re - feeding material remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. Although the sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties has been under pressure for adjustment recently, the probability of the implementation of capacity management in key industries is relatively high. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, with strong support below. It is recommended to lightly build long positions near 50,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, with both supply and demand increasing and a slight reduction in inventory. However, there is significant over - capacity and high inventory pressure. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. For polysilicon, short - term downstream product prices are under pressure, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure. The short - term market may maintain wide fluctuations, but it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2511 opened at 8800 yuan/ton and closed at 8600 yuan/ton, a change of - 305 yuan/ton (- 3.43%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 284,500 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,701 lots, a change of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable [1]. - In August, the number of open furnaces increased in both the southwest and northwest regions. The consumption side saw a significant increase in polysilicon production, while silicone, aluminum alloy, and exports were relatively stable. There was an overall slight reduction in inventory, but the total inventory in the industry was still high, about 940,000 tons, equivalent to about 3 months of consumption [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures declined, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.11% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 132,463 lots, and the trading volume was 395,645 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, while the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers also increased [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, the polysilicon market is under pressure, and the market may maintain wide fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading. In the long term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low levels. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][8].