Group 1 - The national production materials market price increased by 0.1% from December 22 to 28 compared to the previous week [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices saw a slight rebound, with copper and aluminum rising by 3.1% and 0.8% respectively, while zinc remained stable [1] - Rubber prices continued to rise, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [1] Group 2 - Fertilizer prices experienced a slight increase, with urea and compound fertilizer rising by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Steel prices showed minor fluctuations, with high-speed wire and rebar priced at 3558 yuan and 3361 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, while ordinary medium plates and hot-rolled strips decreased by 0.2% [1] - Coal prices predominantly decreased, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 777 yuan and 1052 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, while smokeless lump coal increased by 0.1% [1] Group 3 - Basic chemical raw material prices saw a slight decline, with polypropylene, methanol, soda ash, and sulfuric acid decreasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline dropping by 1.6%, 1.3%, and 1.3% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a decline of 0.52% on December 31, with Kexin New Source leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84, up 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.02, down 0.58% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The rubber sector's individual stock performance showed varied results, with Kexin New Source closing at 56.22, down 3.62%, and a total trading volume of 11.20 million shares, amounting to 636 million yuan [2]. - Other notable stocks included KQ Co., which rose by 1.51% to 14.09, and Tian Tie Technology, which increased by 1.16% to 6.13 [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 148 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 186 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow data indicated that major stocks like Lian Technology had a net inflow of 14.06 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced outflows from retail and speculative investors [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 12,000 in the short - term [7] - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level, with the price center slightly rising. The market transactions are concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Terminal purchases are weak, and production enterprise inventory is expected to remain high while trade enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Summary Market Review - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level. Except for the shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants, other butadiene rubber plants are operating at a high load. The Shandong market spot price ranges from 10,600 to 11,300 yuan/ton. Sinopec's ex - factory price for BR9000 is 11,100 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's is 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton [8] Market Outlook - The domestic butadiene plants have few shutdowns, and the supply remains high. The price center has slightly increased, but the terminal purchases are still weak. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to remain high, and the inventory of trade enterprises is expected to decline slightly. The tire enterprises have flexible production arrangements, with some controlling production. The semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate has increased slightly, while the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate has decreased [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract has oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.99% [12] - As of December 31, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber is - 40 [18] - As of December 31, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts are 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [21] Spot Market - As of December 30, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market is 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [25] - As of December 30, the butadiene rubber basis is - 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation Upstream - As of December 30, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 538.63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.82 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28] - As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.61%, an increase of 0.6% from last week, and the port inventory is 43,300 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from last week [31] Industry - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production is 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [34] - As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber is 76.76%, an increase of 0.5% from last week [34] - As of December 25, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit is 334 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from last week [37] - As of December 26, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory is 34,540 tons, an increase of 530 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory is 28,850 tons, an increase of 1,250 tons from last week; the trader inventory is 5,690 tons, a decrease of 720 tons from last week [41] Downstream - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [44] - In November 2025, China's tire export volume is 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, the cumulative tire export volume is 7,732,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% [48] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the report

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is experiencing a slight rebound due to improved fundamentals and capital inflows, with prices expected to stabilize in the range of 15,100 to 15,400 CNY per ton in the short term [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is showing a significant seasonal contraction, with domestic production entering a downward trend as major production areas like Yunnan and Hainan have largely ceased harvesting [2] - Domestic weekly production of natural rubber was only 5,000 tons as of December 25, a decrease of 500 tons week-on-week, indicating a further tightening of supply [2] - In the overseas market, while natural rubber is still in a high production cycle, uncertainties are increasing due to weather conditions affecting harvesting in Southeast Asia [2] - Tensions at the Thailand-Cambodia border are causing additional disruptions to supply, particularly in key rubber-producing regions [2] Demand Factors - Despite being in a seasonal low demand period, the essential demand for natural rubber remains stable, with the semi-steel tire industry operating at a capacity utilization rate of 70.36%, up 0.35 percentage points from the previous period [3] - Full-steel tire capacity utilization is at 61.69%, primarily driven by essential procurement [3] Market Sentiment - As of December 21, social inventory of natural rubber in China reached 1.182 million tons, with a weekly increase of 30,000 tons, but prices have not significantly declined, indicating a strong market sentiment [4] - The main futures contract prices have shown resilience, with the RU2605 contract reaching 15,890 CNY and 15,840 CNY on December 25 and 26, respectively, suggesting a divergence between current inventory levels and future supply-demand expectations [4] - Analysts believe that the current high inventory levels are already priced in, and the market is shifting focus to future demand recovery and potential decreases in imports [5] Substitution Effects - The long-standing substitution relationship between synthetic rubber and natural rubber is currently weakening, as the price gap between the two has narrowed due to rising production costs for synthetic rubber [6] - As of December 26, the price difference between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has decreased to 4,317 CNY, reducing the competitive advantage of synthetic rubber [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fluctuated downward. The WTI February contract closed down $0.13 at $57.95 per barrel, a 0.22% decline; the Brent February contract closed down $0.02 at $61.92 per barrel, a 0.03% decline; the SC2602 contract closed at 437 yuan per barrel at night, down 1.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.36% decline. As of December 30, the total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still 43 less than the same period last year, a 7.3% decrease. Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, but may increase in January. Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% this year and are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed flat at 2473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 closed down 0.23% at 2977 yuan per ton. China's first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas for 2026 is 8 million tons, the same as last year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market will have sufficient supply from January to February, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate with oil prices, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts may put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.47% at 3038 yuan per ton. The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports is currently stable, and refinery raw material supply in January is not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Production increased slightly at the end of the year, but the production schedule for January is low. There is still some demand in the south, while the north has more inventory demand. Asphalt prices may fluctuate with oil prices and may be stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed up 0.43% at 5144 yuan per ton, EG2605 closed up 0.79% at 3847 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 603 closed up 0.63% at 7316 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi has restarted. PX faces a game between reality and expectation, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate after a rebound [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 5 yuan per ton to 15670 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12690 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 35 yuan per ton to 11565 yuan per ton. With easing precipitation in the production areas and fading downstream tire demand, rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2182 yuan per ton. Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in January arrivals, but MTO plant loads are also decreasing. Port inventories have rebounded, and methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6150 - 6300 yuan per ton. Polyolefin production will remain high, while downstream orders and starts are weakening. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East China were mixed, with some prices in North China rising and those in South China stable. PVC supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, spot price change rate, futures price change rate, basis change, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on December 31, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The US EIA inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. As of the week of December 19, US crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. Refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. - Under US sanctions, Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching a three - year low in 2025, but are expected to increase in January [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 through various charts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28][29]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][31][32][35][36][37][39][40][41][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the historical spreads between different contracts for energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [60][61][62][63][64][65][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [69][70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Serves as the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyzes crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. With in - depth industry research and many awards, she often publishes views in the media [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Focuses on natural rubber and polyester research. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyzes methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, he holds a CFA Level 3 certificate [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is rated cautiously bullish [13] Core Viewpoints - For RU and NR, the basis of RU is weakening, and the basis of NR fluctuates slightly, indicating weak spot price follow - up, especially with the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season, suggesting poor demand for whole - latex. The price difference between RU and NR has slightly widened recently. The fundamentals change little. With domestic rubber - cutting approaching, raw material prices depend on the Thai production area. The cost support for rubber is strong, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, and inventory accumulation will continue in China. - For BR, the supply is relatively stable, and the upstream production profit has slightly improved. During the New Year's Day holiday in China, the downstream tire operating rate is expected to decline. The supply - demand drive is insufficient, and there may be short - term inventory accumulation pressure. However, with the strong raw material price of butadiene, BR is expected to maintain a strong operation under cost support [13] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract is 15,670 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the BR main contract is 11,565 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,875 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber is 1,805 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical is 11,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua is 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Natural Rubber Import - In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2] Global Natural Rubber Production and Consumption Forecast - The ANRPC's November 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in November will drop 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption will drop 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production is expected to increase 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption is expected to drop 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [2] Tire Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Some domestic tire enterprises are under production and sales pressure. During the "New Year's Day" holiday in 2026, some sample enterprises plan to have maintenance for 3 - 5 days. The number of all - steel tire enterprises for maintenance is more than that of semi - steel tire enterprises. Some enterprises' maintenance plans are still undetermined, and most enterprises have no maintenance plans [2] Enterprise Production Plan in January 2026 - In January 2026, enterprises will enter the pre - holiday inventory preparation stage. After a short - term maintenance, production will gradually resume. Enterprises will maintain normal production in the first half of the month to reserve inventory. In the second half of the month, after the inventory replenishment is completed, some enterprises may start the "Spring Festival" holiday around the tenth day of the twelfth lunar month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [3] Heavy - truck Sales - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales reached 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales in the heavy - truck market this year [4] Automobile Production and Sales - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [5] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On December 30, 2025, the RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 970 yuan/ton (+ 5), the NR basis was 500.00 yuan/ton (- 22.00). The price of whole - latex was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 0), the mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the 3L spot was 15,500 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,875 US dollars/ton (+ 0). The spread between whole - latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,200 yuan/ton (- 100) [6][7] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.15 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35), Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 51.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00) [8] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.69% (- 1.92%), and that of semi - steel tires was 70.36% (+ 0.35%) [9] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 524,846 tons (+ 9,619), the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1,182,245 tons (+ 29,327), the RU futures inventory was 93,930 tons (+ 6,770), and the NR futures inventory was 57,960 tons (- 1,008) [9] Cis - polybutadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On December 30, 2025, the BR basis was - 165 yuan/ton (+ 35), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,300 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private cis - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,042 yuan/ton (- 127) [10] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 76.77% (+ 0.51%) [11] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 5,690 tons (- 720), and the enterprise inventory was 28,850 tons (+ 1,250) [12]

2025 年 12 月 31 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 合成橡胶基本面数据 合成橡胶：高位回落 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,565 | 11,600 | -35 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 121,267 | 152,140 | -30873 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 49,563 | 59,203 | -9640 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 700,548 | 884,041 | -183493 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -115 | -150 | 35 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -65 | -30 | -35 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,000 | 11,000 | | | | | 华东顺丁 | ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not mentioned - **Core View**: Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly with an oscillating trend in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weaker performance intraday [1][5][7] - **Summary by Variety** - **Shanghai Rubber (RU)** - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Weakly [1] - **Core Logic**: After domestic production areas enter the off - harvest season, supply pressure eases, downstream auto sales are optimistic, and geopolitical disturbances weaken. However, after the digestion of positive factors, it shows an oscillating and weakening trend. It may maintain this trend on Wednesday [5] - **Synthetic Rubber (BR)** - **Short - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Medium - term**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday**: Weakly [1] - **Core Logic**: Although downstream auto sales are optimistic, potential supply pressure is prominent, and the cost support weakens as the crude oil price drops. It may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Wednesday [7]

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI February contract closing at $57.95 per barrel, down 0.22%, and Brent February contract at $61.92 per barrel, down 0.03% [2][13] - The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still down 43 rigs year-on-year, a decrease of 7.3% [2][13] - India's crude oil imports from Russia are expected to drop to around 1.1 million barrels per day in December, marking a three-year low for Russian oil shipments to India by 2025 [2][13] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained stable at 2473 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil fell by 0.23% to 2977 yuan/ton [3][14] - The first batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export tax rebate quotas for 2026 is set at 8 million tons, unchanged from the previous year [3][14] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, with high-sulfur fuel oil also supported by increased sales of marine fuel oil [3][14] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.47% to 3038 yuan/ton, with stable port arrivals of diluted asphalt [4][15] - Domestic refineries are not expected to be affected by geopolitical events in January, although production is slightly increasing [4][15] - Demand in southern regions remains strong, while northern regions face higher shipping pressures [4][15] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 5 yuan/ton to 15670 yuan/ton, while NR main contract rose by 25 yuan/ton to 12690 yuan/ton [5][17] - The overseas production season is expected to last over a month, with raw material prices still supported [5][17] - Downstream tire demand is weakening, leading to a forecast of price fluctuations for rubber [5][17] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5144 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2605 closed at 3847 yuan/ton, up 0.79% [6][18] - PX futures closed at 7316 yuan/ton, up 0.63%, with spot prices at $894/ton [6][18] - The polyester production load is expected to decline further due to reduced production plans from major manufacturers [6][18] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2182 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $249-$253/ton [7][19] - The shutdown of Iranian facilities is expected to reduce imports in January, while port inventories are anticipated to recover [7][19] - The balance between supply and demand is expected to keep methanol prices stable [7][19] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China are between 6150-6300 yuan/ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [8][20] - Supply is expected to remain high, while demand is weakening, leading to a forecast of low price fluctuations [8][20] - The overall market for polyolefins is driven by weak fundamentals, with significant pressure on inventory transfer to downstream [8][20] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed slight fluctuations, with prices for different grades ranging from 4470-4650 yuan/ton [9][21] - Supply remains high while domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for PVC prices [9][21] - The market is characterized by a weak reality and strong expectations, limiting upward price movement [9][21] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 1743 yuan/ton, up 0.46% [10][22] - Supply levels are declining due to equipment failures, while demand sentiment is improving [10][22] - The market is expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations in supply and demand [10][22] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased, with the main contract closing at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.19% [11][23] - The industry is experiencing a decline in operating rates due to increased maintenance and failures [11][23] - Demand remains weak, but external macroeconomic factors are providing some support to prices [11][23] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a strong increase, with the main contract closing at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.23% [12][24] - The supply of glass is expected to decrease as production lines are being shut down for maintenance [12][24] - Demand is gradually improving, but the overall market remains cautious due to weak end-user demand [12][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal. As the OPEC supply has not yet increased significantly, oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market will enter a short - term consolidation. The inventory in ports will further decline due to reverse flow and trans - shipment. However, the import volume will remain high, and the olefin plants in ports have maintenance plans, so the port pressure still exists. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure, with the price expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - The urea market is showing signs of improvement in supply - demand balance. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have boosted short - term demand, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices [7]. - The natural rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand prospects, while bears are pessimistic because of weak demand. Currently, it is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [9][10]. - The PVC market has low valuation pressure in the short term, but the supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and although the Indian BIS policy has been revoked and there is no expected anti - dumping tax, there is still off - season pressure. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is significant room for valuation repair. The cost - side pure benzene supply is still abundant, and the styrene production is increasing. The styrene port inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has increased, and the inventory is expected to decline from a high level. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [20]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and a potential expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in a seasonal oscillation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. - The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased significantly, and both PX and PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand in the coming year. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term while being aware of the callback risk [25]. - The PTA supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand will decline due to profit pressure and the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. The valuation has room to increase in the coming year, but attention should be paid to the callback risk in the short term. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the medium term [28]. - The ethylene glycol industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. Although the overseas unexpected maintenance has increased, the domestic reduction is insufficient. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and the valuation may need to be compressed without further domestic production cuts in the medium term [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 0.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.11% increase, at 436.10 yuan/barrel. The US EIA weekly data showed that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.41 million barrels to 424.82 million barrels, a 0.10% increase; the SPR increased by 0.80 million barrels to 412.97 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 2.86 million barrels to 228.49 million barrels, a 1.27% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 118.70 million barrels, a 0.17% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.85 million barrels to 22.99 million barrels, a 3.85% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 1.32 million barrels to 44.89 million barrels, a 3.02% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 58 yuan/ton, at 2219 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 26 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter short - term consolidation. The port inventory will decline, but there is still pressure. The overall supply is high, and the fundamentals face some pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by - 20 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 43 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 8 yuan/ton, at 1743 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand balance is improving. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bullish view of natural rubber RU is based on limited production growth in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand in China. The bearish view is due to uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and the postponed EUDR. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than last week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than last week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 118.2 tons, a 2.5% increase [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach, wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 257 (+75) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 133 (- 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.2%, a 0.2% decrease; the calcium carbide method was 78.5%, a 0.8% increase; the ethylene method was 74.3%, a 2.3% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. The factory inventory was 30.6 tons (- 2.2), and the social inventory was 106 tons (+0.4) [11][13]. - **Strategy**: The valuation pressure is low in the short term, but the supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 5487 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 177 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan reduction. The spot price of styrene was 6850 yuan/ton, a 125 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 6781 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan increase; the basis was 69 yuan/ton, a 81 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.93 tons, a 0.46 - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.60%, a 1.67% decrease; the PS operating rate was 54.50%, a 3.80% decrease; the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, a 1.96% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, a 0.47% increase [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is significant room for valuation repair. The cost - side pure benzene supply is still abundant, and the styrene production is increasing. The styrene port inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6461 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6365 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 96 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 82.66%, a 0.05% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 45.86 tons, a 2.92 - ton decrease; the trader inventory was 3.25 tons, a 0.32 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 42%, a 0.45% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan reduction [19]. - **Strategy**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has increased, and the inventory is expected to decline from a high level. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6321 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 46 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 76.92%, a 0.32% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 53.33 tons, a 0.45 - ton decrease; the trader inventory was 18.72 tons, a 1.11 - ton decrease; the port inventory was 6.87 tons, a 0.12 - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 140 yuan/ton, a 39 - yuan reduction [21]. - **Strategy**: The EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and a potential expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in a seasonal oscillation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 286 yuan, at 7270 yuan; the PX CFR decreased by 28 dollars, at 891 dollars; the basis was - 47 yuan (+56), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 26 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX load was 88.2%, a 0.1% increase; the Asian load was 79.5%, a 0.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had operations such as shutdown and restart. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China increased. The inventory at the end of October increased [24]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased significantly, and both PX and PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand in the coming year. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term while being aware of the callback risk [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 158 yuan, at 5122 yuan; the East China spot price decreased by 110 yuan, at 5065 yuan; the basis was - 63 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 110 yuan (- 20). The PTA load was 72.5%, a 0.7% decrease. Some plants had operations such as restart and production reduction. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The social inventory on December 26 decreased. The spot processing fee and the disk processing fee increased [26][27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand will decline due to profit pressure and the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. The valuation has room to increase in the coming year, but attention should be paid to the callback risk in the short term. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the medium term [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 29 yuan, at 3817 yuan; the East China spot price increased by 21 yuan, at 3687 yuan; the basis was - 136 yuan (+16), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 71 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 1.4% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had operations such as load reduction and restart. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The import forecast was 11.8 tons, and the port inventory increased by 1.4 tons. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of ethylene was stable while the price of coal decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. Although the overseas unexpected maintenance has increased, the domestic reduction is insufficient. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and the valuation may need to be compressed without further domestic production cuts in the medium term [30].