2、 中国商品贸易出口走势 中国40年以来贸易出口爆发式增长，从1981年的220亿美元到2024年的35770亿美元，形成了出口爆发式增长的良好态势。 危中有机，虽然困难很多，但疫情影响的近三年的中国出口走势极其良好，形成出口对国民经济的良好支撑作用，对世界人民的正常生活物资需求和国内 百姓的就业与收入增长都有很好的促进。中国出口的暴增让世界海运贸易出现超强的爆发增长，延续至今的造船热仍在延续。 尤其是中国的进出口贸易顺差强势增长，从1980年持续的贸易逆差到1994年以后持续的贸易顺差，并在2024年达到了9918亿美元的高的贸易顺差，形成了 中国出口的良好表现。 智通财经APP获悉，9月21日，崔东树发文称，近日海关总署发布2025年1-8月份进出口数据。8月份我国进出口总额5413亿美元，同比增长3.1%，其中， 出口总额3218亿美元，同比增长4.4%，连续6个月保持正增长。8月我国对美出口同比下降 33.1%。8月中国香港、越南、印度等为出口做出重要贡献，而 澳大利亚、韩国、巴西、瑞士、韩国、智利的贸易逆差较大，中国汽车进入贸易平衡效果会较好。从出口品类均价看：服装鞋帽、手机、轮胎等的出口均 价下 ...

// 市场要闻 // 1、国新办举行新闻发布会 据国新网消息，国务院新闻办公室将于9月22日（星期一）下午3时举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，请中国人民银行 行长潘功胜，金融监管总局局长李云泽，中国证监会主席吴清，中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新介绍"十四五"时期金融业发 展成就，并答记者问。 2、9月LPR报价将公布 9月22日，1年期和5年期以上贷款市场报价利率(LPR)将公布最新值。8月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布1年期LPR 为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，两个期限品种均与上月持平，连续三个月未作调整。 3、18268亿元逆回购到期 本周，央行公开市场将有18268亿元逆回购到期。其中，周一至周五分别到期2800亿元、2870亿元、4185亿元、4870亿元、3543亿元；此 外，周四（9月25日）还将有3000亿元MLF到期。 4、成品油再迎调价窗口 根据"十个工作日"原则，新一轮成品油零售限价调整时间为9月23日24时。今年以来，中国国内油价已经历十八轮调价窗口，分别为"六涨 七降五搁浅"。距离调价仅剩两个工作日，且目前变化率处于调价红线附 ...

更重要的是，中国持续深化改革开放，不断提升营商环境市场化、法治化、国际化水平，从缩减外资准 入负面清单到落实《中华人民共和国外商投资法》，一系列扎实举措让外资企业信心倍增，更愿长远布 局。报告显示，71%的受访企业在2024年实现盈利。48%的企业认为中国市场监管环境透明度较高，较 去年大幅提升13个百分点；41%的企业对中国进一步开放市场充满信心。 事实上，不仅是在华美企，美国本土企业也越来越质疑美加征关税政策。他们清醒认识到，加征关税的 成本最终由美国企业和消费者承担，不仅削弱其产品竞争力，更导致供应链额外成本上升。以汽车行业 为例，2025年二季度，福特、通用和斯泰兰蒂斯因关税损失合计22.5亿美元，全年预计损失将达70亿美 元。利益受损的现实，促使更多企业呼吁取消不合理关税，正因为其违背市场规律、损害商业本质，是 保护主义短视之举。 上海美国商会9月中旬发布报告显示，尽管近年美国政府对华加征关税并推动所谓"供应链回流"，但绝 大多数在华美企仍选择深耕中国市场，这场单方面发起的贸易战并未触发大规模企业回流。这一客观事 实，无疑是对"脱钩断链"论调的有力反驳，凸显出中国市场在全球经济格局中不可替代的战略价 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% is a strategic adjustment in response to economic headwinds, including weak employment data and persistent inflation [2] - The reduction in borrowing costs is expected to lead to an influx of capital into the dollar system, creating investment opportunities globally [2] - Historical patterns show that each rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been linked to rising asset prices in China, particularly in the stock market [2] Group 2 - China's economy is on the brink of deflation, with asset prices adjusting and stock market valuations appearing more attractive compared to global standards, prompting foreign investment [3] - The influx of foreign capital is anticipated to significantly improve cash flow for many companies, positively impacting salary payments and bonuses, thereby stabilizing the job market [5] - The potential for a global rate cut cycle initiated by the Federal Reserve could stimulate global consumer demand, benefiting China's export sector [5][6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's rate cut enhances the flexibility of China's monetary policy, allowing for potential further rate cuts to support economic recovery [6] - The depreciation of the dollar typically leads to a weaker dollar, which can relieve debt pressures for companies holding dollar-denominated debt, while also creating pricing pressures for export-oriented firms [8] - Different sectors are expected to respond variably to the rate cut, with technology, consumer staples, and financial sectors likely to benefit first due to increased liquidity and foreign capital inflow [8] Group 4 - The narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential is expected to attract more global capital to Chinese assets, as investors seek higher returns [9] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut signals a reshaping of global capital risk pricing, enhancing the long-term appeal of Chinese bonds [10] - The ongoing opening of China's financial markets and the reduction of foreign investment restrictions are creating a more favorable investment environment for foreign capital [10][14] Group 5 - The high-tech manufacturing sector is seeing a significant increase in foreign investment, with notable growth in medical equipment and computer manufacturing [11] - Foreign companies are increasingly establishing R&D centers in China, reflecting confidence in the country's innovation capabilities [13] - The capital market's high level of openness is crucial for improving market pricing efficiency and attracting top global investment firms [14]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.30% to close at 3820.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34% [2] - The market showed overall volatility in the first half of the week, but retreated towards the end as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2][3] Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, leading to a temporary cooling of investor sentiment and risk appetite [3][4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive for A-shares, with expectations of a stronger RMB and improved market risk appetite [3][4] Calendar Effects - Historical data indicates that A-shares typically exhibit a calendar effect around the National Day holiday, with a tendency for the market to perform poorly before the holiday and rebound afterward [5][6] - Over the past decade, indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have shown over 60% probability of rising in the week following the National Day holiday [5] Sector Performance - Certain sectors, particularly technology-related industries such as computers, communications, and electronics, have a higher probability of rising in the five trading days following the holiday [6] - Financial sectors, including banks and non-bank financials, are also expected to perform well in the weeks following the holiday [6] Investment Strategy - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a shift in investment styles, with a potential rotation from previously high-performing sectors to more defensive ones [7] - Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors driven by economic recovery and industry trends, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and consumer sectors [7]

截至2025年9月19日收盘，钧崴电子(301458)报收于38.13元，上涨4.64%，换手率14.44%，成交量9.32万 手，成交额3.55亿元。 华泰联合证券有限责任公司作为钧崴电子科技股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市的保荐机 构，依据相关规定对钧崴电子董事、高级管理人员等相关人员开展了持续督导期2025年培训。培训于 2025年9月11日通过现场及线上方式举行，主要内容包括上市公司规范运作、近期资本市场政策及相关 案例讲解，旨在增强参训人员的法制观念和诚信意识，强化其对公司规范运作责任与义务的理解。培训 由保荐代表人李浩森、张帅组织实施。通过培训，相关人员进一步加深了对证监会及深交所相关法律法 规和创业板业务规则的认识，有助于提升公司规范运作水平。 当日关注点 交易信息汇总资金流向 9月19日主力资金净流入2721.7万元；游资资金净流出629.16万元；散户资金净流出2092.53万元。 公司公告汇总 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 来自交易信息汇总：9月19日主力资金净流入2721.7万元，显 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, which is expected to create a more favorable external environment for Chinese assets, enhancing their attractiveness [2] - Multiple institutions, including Invesco and Fidelity International, express optimism about investment opportunities in non-US markets, particularly in China, Japan, and Europe, following the Fed's rate cut [2] - Emerging market equities are viewed as having good investment value, with current valuations being only one-third of developed markets, supported by a weaker dollar and easing monetary policies in the Asia-Pacific region [2] Group 2 - The easing of external constraints is expected to enhance the People's Bank of China's operational flexibility in monetary policy tools, such as MLF/LPR and structural instruments [3] - As the US economy shows signs of weakening and the Fed's independence comes under scrutiny, a gradual shift to a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated, which may lead to a significant increase in foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] - Key investment themes identified by Manulife include high-growth sectors like AI and robotics, sectors benefiting directly from liquidity easing, and industries with improving fundamentals due to policy changes, such as power equipment and chemicals [4]

Group 1: Government Procurement and Policies - The State Council meeting emphasized the importance of implementing domestic product standards in government procurement as a significant step to improve the procurement system and ensure fair treatment for foreign enterprises [1] - The meeting highlighted the need to categorize domestic product standards reasonably and set specific requirements for key components and processes [1] - There will be a focus on listening to various opinions and providing a reasonable transition period to support enterprises in their industrial layout and investment plans [1] Group 2: Healthcare and Price Control - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced the optimization of price control "anchors" for the 11th batch of centralized procurement, moving away from simply selecting the lowest bid [2] - This change aims to prevent abnormal low pricing from disrupting normal bids and will set the price control anchor at 50% of the average winning bid if the lowest bid is below that threshold [2] Group 3: Battery Industry Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working on the "14th Five-Year" new battery industry development plan to prevent low-level redundant construction [3] - The focus will be on strengthening industrial planning and promoting regional coordinated development in the lithium battery sector [3] Group 4: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China has adjusted the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price-level bidding to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Market Stability - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported stable net inflows in the goods trade for August, with a total cross-border capital net inflow of $3.2 billion [5] - The foreign exchange market remains active, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in cross-border receipts and payments by non-bank sectors [5] Group 6: IPO Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that the IPO of Moore Thread Technology will be reviewed on September 26, 2025 [6] Group 7: Financial Fraud and Regulatory Actions - Four A-share companies, including Fudan Forward and Creative Information, will face risk warnings and trading suspensions due to financial fraud [7] Group 8: Immigration Policy Changes - The U.S. administration has signed an executive order imposing a $100,000 annual fee for H-1B visa applicants to ensure that only highly skilled foreign workers are brought in [8][9] Group 9: Investment Opportunities in Construction - China Galaxy Securities recommends four investment themes in the construction industry during the "14th Five-Year" period, focusing on major engineering projects, overseas expansion, and sectors like low-altitude economy and clean energy [17] Group 10: Electronics Sector Trends - CITIC Securities reports that the electronics sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly in AI computing and storage, with expectations of continued growth through the traditional peak season [18] Group 11: Domestic Computing Chip Advancements - Zhongyuan Securities highlights that domestic firms are making significant strides in computing chips, with advancements in cluster computing and technology breakthroughs in HBM [19]

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicators showed a decline, with the sentiment index at 2, down from 2.55 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook despite some improvement in sub-indicators [7][9][10] - The industry trend showed signs of recovery, with financing balance ratio increasing, suggesting a restoration of market leverage sentiment [9][24][39] - The total trading volume for the week increased slightly compared to the previous week, with the highest daily trading volume reaching 31,666.43 billion RMB [12][14] Group 2 - The trading volatility between industries continued to decline, indicating reduced activity in fund switching, while the RSI indicator shifted from positive to neutral, suggesting a cooling of bullish momentum [9][30] - The short-term trend scores for industries such as machinery, electric equipment, and automotive are notably strong, with machinery and electric equipment both scoring 96.61 [34][35] - The model indicates a preference for large-cap growth styles, although the strength of this signal is weakening and requires further observation [34][49] Group 3 - The report highlights high capital congestion in sectors like automotive and electric equipment, which have seen significant price increases, indicating potential volatility risks [39][44] - Conversely, sectors such as retail and transportation show high capital congestion but lower price increases, suggesting stable capital allocation [39][44] - Low congestion sectors like pharmaceuticals and beauty care, which have seen lower price increases, may present opportunities for gradual long-term investment as risk appetite improves [39][44]

报告导读： 随着十一长假结束，资金回流，市场对10月四中全会谋划"十五五"规划的政 策预期升温，风险偏好有望提振。转债有望获得支撑，届时可更积极把握结构性机会。 过去一周（9月15日-9月19日），A股市场主要指数涨跌互现。 上证指数全周下跌1.30%，沪深300指数下跌0.44%；而深证成指和创业板指则分别上涨1.14%和 2.34%，科创50指数也上涨了1.84%。市场成交活跃度较前一周有所提升，日均成交额约为2.52万亿元，周四单日成交额一度放大至3.17万亿元，但周五又大幅 缩量至2.35万亿元。从风格看，小盘指数略跑赢大盘指数，成长风格相对占优。行业表现方面，市场整体在美联储降息落地及科技事件催化下呈现结构型行 情，资金从传统金融向科技成长和低位周期类赛道转移。消费者服务、汽车、电子、煤炭、家电行业涨幅居前，芯片、光刻机、人形机器人板块继续受到资金 青睐，有色金属、银行、非银行业跌幅居前。 转债市场整体呈现调整态势，中证转债指数承压下行，累计下跌1.55%。 转债等权指数下跌1.29%，跌幅大于转债正股等权指数。转债高价低溢价率指数和转 债双低指数跌幅大于转债低价指数，大盘转债跌幅大于中小盘转债。转 ...