Group 1 - The manufacturing sentiment in the consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors has significantly declined, indicating a need for increased policy support [1][8][11] - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, falling below the neutral line of 50%, with consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors both entering a downturn [8][11] - The automotive sector showed a decline in production despite strong sales, with the operating rate of semi-steel tires dropping by 3.81 percentage points compared to March [11][14] Group 2 - The coal supply and demand situation remains weak, with low prices leading to a reduction in domestic supply and continued price declines [17][19] - The real estate sector experienced a marginal decline in transaction volumes, particularly in second and third-tier cities, while first-tier cities showed resilience [30][31] - The financial sector saw a decrease in trading activity, with the A-share market declining by 3.2% in April, while social financing data exceeded expectations [40][41] Group 3 - The consumer sector displayed structural strengths, with service consumption performing well, but uncertainties in external demand are increasing [2][3] - The TMT sector faces challenges due to rising trade barriers, impacting the development of humanoid robots and artificial intelligence industries [2][3] - The new energy sector is experiencing stable demand for lithium batteries, while the photovoltaic sector is seeing a decline in demand [2][3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On May 2, 37 Hong Kong-listed companies conducted share buybacks, totaling 23.26 million shares and an aggregate amount of HKD 179 million [1]. Group 1: Buyback Details - The company with the highest buyback amount on May 2 was Green Bamboo Bio-B, which repurchased 1.76 million shares for HKD 39.71 million, with a maximum price of HKD 23.00 and a minimum price of HKD 21.95 [1][2]. - China Hongqiao repurchased 2.79 million shares for HKD 39.39 million, with a maximum price of HKD 14.20 and a minimum price of HKD 14.02, bringing its total buyback amount for the year to HKD 20.74 billion [1][2]. - Swire Pacific A repurchased 0.33 million shares for HKD 22.59 million, with a maximum price of HKD 68.95 and a minimum price of HKD 66.95, totaling HKD 15.26 billion for the year [1][2]. Group 2: Notable Buybacks - AIA Group conducted multiple buybacks throughout the year, with a total buyback amount of HKD 7.69 billion, including a buyback of HKD 16.07 million on May 2 [2]. - The company with the highest number of shares repurchased on May 2 was Ying Group, which bought back 7 million shares [1][2]. - Other notable companies in terms of buyback volume included China Hongqiao and Four Seasons Pharmaceutical, with repurchases of 2.79 million shares and 2.68 million shares, respectively [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of safe-haven assets in the context of a complex global economic environment, highlighting the shift from traditional assets like gold to new alternatives such as energy metals and digital currencies [2][3]. Group 1: Evolution of Safe-Haven Assets - Historical evolution of safe-haven tools has undergone three revolutions, indicating a shift from physical assets to digital consensus [2]. - The current market faces a contradiction where the collapse of the old system outpaces the establishment of a new order, forcing capital to seek temporary refuge [2]. Group 2: New Types of Safe-Haven Assets - Energy metals are emerging as hard currencies in the context of green inflation, with global clean energy investment surpassing fossil fuels at $1.8 trillion [3]. - The financial attributes of these metals are strengthening, as evidenced by the correlation of copper inventory to price dropping from 0.68 to 0.21, indicating a shift towards strategic reserve asset logic [3]. - Bitcoin's institutional holding has reached 36%, but its high annual volatility of 48% still deters conservative investors, leading to the emergence of new crypto assets that aim to differentiate between risk and safe-haven assets [3]. Group 3: Alternative Sovereign Assets - The decline of traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc is noted, with small country currencies rising due to resource endowment and digital infrastructure [4]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has surpassed $4 trillion, making it comparable to the fourth-largest stock market globally [4]. - The demand for lithium is projected to grow 42 times by 2030, with 70% of reserves concentrated in "lithium triangle" countries [4]. Group 4: Capital Flows and Sovereign Wealth Funds - Tracking global sovereign wealth funds reveals a trend of seeking new frameworks for risk diversification as traditional asset correlations rise above 0.8 [4]. - The Norwegian government pension fund has increased its copper futures allocation from 0.3% to 2.1% [5]. - Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is establishing a $30 billion space technology fund, indicating a strategic shift towards innovative asset classes [5]. Group 5: Survival Strategies in the New Safe-Haven Era - Investors are advised to build a three-dimensional defense system, focusing on risk, time, and space dimensions [5]. - Short-term strategies include increasing exposure to energy metal ETFs and digital stablecoins, while long-term strategies involve investing in disruptive technologies like nuclear fusion and quantum computing [5]. - Geographic safety zones should maintain a minimum of 15% in physical assets, with digital asset wallets diversified across at least three jurisdictions [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trend of various futures on April 30, 2025, including their support and resistance levels, and also analyzes the market situation on April 29, 2025, along with relevant macro - news and commodity - related information [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2506 has resistance at 3748 and 3768 points, support at 3715 and 3705 points; IH2506 has resistance at 2640 and 2650 points, support at 2612 and 2605 points; IC2506 has resistance at 5530 and 5561 points, support at 5440 and 5420 points; IM2506 has resistance at 5820 and 5848 points, support at 5700 and 5668 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly. T2506 has resistance at 109.16 and 109.32 yuan, support at 109.00 and 108.88 yuan; TL2506 has resistance at 121.2 and 121.7 yuan, support at 120.8 and 120.4 yuan [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2506 are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 792.2 and 795.0 yuan/gram, support at 780.0 and 774.5 yuan/gram; Silver futures AG2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 8296 and 8329 yuan/kg, support at 8159 and 8113 yuan/kg [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures CU2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 78200 and 78600 yuan/ton, support at 77600 and 77200 yuan/ton; Aluminum futures AL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance at 20100 and 20190 yuan/ton, with support at 19930 and 19880 yuan/ton; Alumina futures AO2509 are likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 2650 and 2600 yuan/ton, resistance at 2770 and 2787 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and soybean meal futures are likely to oscillate weakly; Glass and soda ash futures are likely to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping emphasized Shanghai's role in building an international science and technology innovation center; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the US Treasury Secretary's remarks on the tariff war; the Ministry of Commerce commented on Boeing's situation; the central financial institutions supported Shanghai's construction of an international financial center; the central bank increased capital injection to ensure market liquidity; the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments carried out a market access barrier cleanup campaign; the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security proposed reform measures; the central bank mobilized the implementation of the financial "five - article" statistical system [9]. - **International News**: The US Secretary of Commerce mentioned trade agreements and tariff policies; the US Treasury Secretary planned to have talks and proposed tax - related measures; the "helmsman" of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund warned of global economic risks; global investors sold ESG sustainable funds; US economic data such as job vacancies, consumer confidence, and housing prices were released; euro - zone economic data such as industrial and economic sentiment were released [11]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - **Domestic Futures Night Session**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night, with energy - chemical products, black series, and some agricultural products falling, while some base metals had mixed performance [13]. - **International Futures**: International precious metal futures and oil futures closed lower on April 29, 2025; London base metals mostly fell; Chicago Board of Trade agricultural product futures closed lower [14]. - **Industry News**: The China National Coal Association called for regulating coal imports; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a plan for the livestock - breeding grain - saving action; the World Bank predicted commodity prices; US API crude oil inventories increased; the US dollar index rose [15]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 29, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, with some falling slightly and some having short - term rebounds, but most faced resistance and support levels [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 29, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the ten - year and thirty - year contracts showing strong upward trends, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations to inject capital [40]. - **Other Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and other futures also had their respective trends on April 29, 2025, and their future trends were predicted, including support and resistance levels [46].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 51.03 CNY [1][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its superconducting and titanium alloy businesses, leading to continuous performance recovery. In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 46.12 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.01 billion CNY, up 6.44% year-on-year [6][7]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 10.74 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 35.31%, and a net profit of 1.70 billion CNY, up 53.85% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of superconducting materials, high-end titanium alloy materials, and high-performance high-temperature alloy materials. In 2024, high-end titanium alloy materials generated revenue of 27.52 billion CNY, a growth of 9.87% year-on-year, while superconducting products achieved revenue of 13.04 billion CNY, up 32.41% year-on-year [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve the following financial metrics: - Total revenue: 5,625 million CNY in 2025, 6,817 million CNY in 2026, and 8,110 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 21.2%, and 19.0% respectively [2][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 1,005 million CNY in 2025, 1,217 million CNY in 2026, and 1,434 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 21.2%, and 17.8% respectively [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.55 CNY in 2025, 1.87 CNY in 2026, and 2.21 CNY in 2027 [2][7]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a performance comparison against the CSI 300 index, with a notable increase of 40% from April 2024 to April 2025 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy implementation will be focused in the second quarter, and China is well - prepared for the impact of US tariff measures [8] - The People's Bank of China will use a moderately loose monetary policy, including potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, to support the economy [8] - China's energy, food supply is sufficient, and the impact of reducing imports from the US is limited [16][28] Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most closed down. Energy - chemical products mostly declined, with butadiene rubber down 1.18%, crude oil down 1.15%, etc.; black - series mostly fell, with coking coal down 1.57%; agricultural products generally dropped, while basic metals showed mixed results, and precious metals rose [2] - **International Precious Metals Futures**: Generally closed up, with COMEX gold futures up 1.71% at $3354.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.20% at $33.40 per ounce [3] - **International Oil Prices**: Weakened, with US crude futures down 1.79% at $61.89 per barrel and Brent crude futures down 1.87% at $64.57 per barrel [4] - **London Basic Metals**: Most rose, such as LME lead up 1.65% at $1977.00 per ton [4] - **CBOT Agricultural Products Futures**: Most closed down, except for soybeans up 0.19% at 1061.25 cents per bushel [4] Macro - Information - **Policy Announcements**: Policy implementation will peak in Q2; the central bank will use monetary tools and introduce incremental policies; relevant departments will promote project construction and address capital shortages [8][9] - **Diplomatic Responses**: There was no recent call between the two heads of state, and no negotiations on tariffs between China and the US [8] - **Industry Data**: As of March 2025, there were 151 futures companies in China; Shanghai's export container freight index declined [13][14] - **International News**: The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral framework agreement; tensions between India and Pakistan escalated [14] Energy - Chemical Futures - **Supply Situation**: Domestic energy supply is sufficient, and reducing imports from the US has no impact; inventories of some products like styrene and natural rubber changed [16] - **Company Response**: Yuanxing Energy's Alxa natural soda project phase II is progressing as planned [16] Metal Futures - **Gold Market**: China increased its gold reserves in Q1; domestic gold ETF holdings grew significantly; Hong Kong's gold exports to the mainland changed [19][20] - **Other Metals**: The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026; SHFE is soliciting casting aluminum alloy futures delivery products [19][21] Black - Series Futures - **Policy Measures**: Promote automobile consumption, stabilize the capital and real estate markets, and support the real economy [23] - **Iron Ore Data**: China's iron ore arrivals and global shipments changed in a certain period; Brazil's iron ore shipping data showed an increase [23][24][26] Agricultural Product Futures - **Supply Security**: Reducing US agricultural imports has little impact on China's food supply [28] - **Market Data**: Prices of pigs, corn, and other products changed; soybean processing, inventory, and trading data were reported; overseas agricultural production and shipping data were also provided [28][29][32] Financial Markets Commodities - **Commodity Futures**: Domestic and international commodity futures showed various trends; gold reserves and consumption data in China were reported; rice prices in Japan hit a record high [39][40][44] Bonds - **Bond Market**: Treasury futures mostly rose; convertible bond indices fell; government bond issuance data was reported; yields of US and European bonds changed; some bond events occurred [45][46] Foreign Exchange - **Exchange Rates**: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar changed; major RMB exchange rate indices rose; the impact of US bond fluctuations on China's foreign exchange reserves is limited [49] Upcoming Events - **Domestic**: The People's Bank of China has reverse - repurchase maturities; many companies will release financial reports [52] - **International**: Central bank officials will give speeches; some international meetings will be held; the Japanese market is closed for a holiday [52][54]

文字早评 2025/04/29 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.20%，创指-0.65%，科创 50-0.17%，北证 50-1.78%，上证 50+0.09%，沪深 300-0.14%， 中证 500-0.51%，中证 1000-1.05%，中证 2000-1.42%，万得微盘-1.11%。两市合计成交 10563 亿，较上 一日-573 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、发改委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措；常态化、敞口式做好政策预研 储备，及时出台增量储备政策。 2、发改委：针对长期摇号家庭和无车家庭等重点群体，定向增发购车指标；建立实施育儿补贴制度。 3、央行邹澜：发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，适时推出增量政策，将适时降准降息。 资金面：融资额-54.03 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-0.30bp 至 1.6030%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+0.40bp 至 3.1177%，十年期国债利率-0.90bp 至 1.6514%，信用利差+1.30bp 至 147bp；美国 10 年期利率-3.00bp 至 4.29%，中美利差+2.10bp ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a weak trend on April 28, with the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1376.15 points, down 5.55 points or 0.40% from the previous trading day [1] - The energy and chemical sector showed strength, particularly in the polyester chain, with short fibers, low-sulfur fuel oil, and PTA recording approximately 2% gains [1][3] - In contrast, the metal sector continued to adjust, with polysilicon leading the decline, dropping over 3%, while gold and silver fell more than 1% [1][4] Group 2: Polyester Chain Performance - The polyester industry chain maintained a strong performance, with short fiber futures leading the market with a 2.08% increase, while PTA and bottle chips also rose over 1% [3] - Global trade tensions have lessened their impact on market sentiment, and the recovery of international oil prices has supported the stabilization of energy and chemical products [3] - However, there are concerns regarding weak demand in both domestic and foreign trade, leading to increased inventory levels in short fiber factories [3] Group 3: Metal Sector Weakness - The metal sector, including energy metals, faced a collective downturn, with polysilicon dropping 3.05%, and lithium carbonate and industrial silicon also declining [4] - Despite a previous rebound due to production control rumors, the demand for photovoltaic installations has cooled, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances for silicon materials [4] - The overall sentiment in the metal market remains bearish, with expectations of continued pressure on polysilicon prices due to weak future demand and slow inventory depletion [4] Group 4: Oilseed and Oil Market Trends - The oilseed and oil market also saw a collective decline, with soybean meal, palm oil, and No. 2 yellow soybeans all dropping over 2% [5] - The market sentiment turned negative due to downstream resistance to high-priced soybean meal, alongside a retreat in U.S. soybean prices and expectations of increased domestic oilseed supply [5] - In the absence of substantial positive fundamentals, the oilseed market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the non-ferrous metals industry, including advancements in AI tools by ByteDance and Meituan, indicating a growing demand for AI-driven solutions in various sectors [1] - The market performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a positive trend, with the SW non-ferrous metals industry index increasing by 1.50% [2] - Key metal prices have shown varied movements, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices rising, while some rare earth elements have decreased [3] Market Performance - As of April 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% to 3295.06 points, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.38% to 3786.99 points [2] - The SW non-ferrous metals industry index reached 4641 points, reflecting a 1.50% increase [2] - Among the five sub-industries in non-ferrous metals, industrial metals and energy metals saw increases of 2.35% and 2.93%, respectively, while precious metals decreased by 2.52% [2] Key Metal Prices - The prices for key metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are as follows: copper at 77,440 CNY/ton (+1.91%), aluminum at 20,030 CNY/ton (+1.68%), zinc at 22,750 CNY/ton (+3.34%), lead at 16,945 CNY/ton (+0.68%), nickel at 125,800 CNY/ton (+0.15%), and tin at 262,840 CNY/ton (+2.39%) [3] - On the London Metal Exchange, copper, aluminum, and zinc prices also increased, with copper at 9,360 USD/ton (+1.87%) and aluminum at 2,438 USD/ton (+3.04%) [3] - Gold and silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 787.20 CNY/gram (+0.22%) and 8,280 CNY/kilogram (+1.79%), respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China may enhance market risk appetite, leading to potential rebounds in industrial metal stocks [4][5] - Specific recommendations include investing in gold-related A-shares such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Hunan Gold, as well as industrial metal leaders like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5]