晨报 成材 成材：情绪回升 钢价反弹 逻辑：中钢协：7 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 214.1 万吨，环比 增长 2.1%；钢材库存量 1566 万吨，环比上一旬增长 3.9%，比上月同旬下 降 3.4%。国家发展改革委、市场监管总局就《中华人民共和国价格法修 正草案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，其中提出，完善低价倾销的认定 标准，规范市场价格秩序，治理"内卷式"竞争；完善价格串通、哄抬价 格、价格歧视等不正当价格行为认定标准。本周，五大品种钢材产量 866.97 万吨，环比下降 0.1%；钢材总库存 1336.5 万吨，环比下降 0.1%； 钢材消费量为 868.13 万吨，其中建材消费增 2.7%，板材消费降 1.7%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 受益于反内卷宏观利好，黑色系延续涨势，成材继续创反弹新高。昨 日的周度数据上，螺纹钢表需出现较大上升，其他材基本面无太大变化。 近期的市场情绪带动钢价波动加大，叠加月底的国内会议，短期或仍偏强 运行。 观点：偏强运行。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我 ...

印度钢铁部官员：需要就某些绿色钢材的公共采购制定规则，我们正在研究具体办法。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the overall risk level in the market is showing a mild improvement, with the risk system score rising to 49.80 from 45.39, reflecting a shift towards a more balanced market sentiment amid economic recovery and policy effects [2][3] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index valuation has increased to 55.08, indicating a rise in the overall valuation center, with certain cyclical industries experiencing higher valuation rebounds compared to consumer sectors [2] - The market expectation score has risen to 56.00, suggesting reduced pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year, while external environment fluctuations are anticipated to impact exports [3] Group 2 - The bond market risk system score stands at 73.3, with GDP growth in the first half of the year meeting market expectations, indicating resilience in the Chinese economy despite complex external conditions [9] - The second quarter's GDP growth was 5.3%, with significant contributions from final consumption and net exports, although internal demand showed signs of pressure [10][11] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests potential economic slowdown, with external demand risks and limited incremental policies expected to impact growth [12] Group 3 - The black commodity sector's risk system score has increased to 63.6, indicating a medium risk level, driven by domestic factors and significant government infrastructure investments [15] - The recent volatility in the black commodity sector is influenced by supply-side policies and large-scale infrastructure projects, although the balance of supply and demand remains a critical factor for future price stability [15]

尽管建筑业低迷等原因导致钢铁需求走弱，但中国仍保持高水平生产，正在向周边国家大量出口。日本 将对不锈钢进行反倾销关税调查。围绕钢铁的贸易摩擦将加剧…… 日本国内的主要钢材降价，创出约4年来的低点。其背景是受内需不振困扰的中国的大量出口。韩国等 各国意图通过反倾销措施将中国产品拒之门外，过剩的钢材流向日本。日本政府也将对不锈钢进行反倾 销关税调查。围绕钢铁的贸易摩擦将加剧。 在制造业等广泛使用的热轧钢板的流通价格（东京地区）为1吨11万2500日元左右，比6月底下降4%， 创出2021年8月以来的最低水平。 低价钢材正在从中国流入日本。日本钢铁联盟的统计显示，5月份从中国进口的普通钢材为9万8667吨， 与上年同月相比增加了5成。 尽管建筑业低迷等原因导致钢铁需求走弱，但中国仍保持高水平生产，正在向周边国家大量出口。中国 海关总署的统计显示，6月份钢材出口967万吨，同比增长10.7%。1~6月合计比上年增加9.2%，达到 5814万吨，为同期历史最高。 陷入供应过剩，出口价格低迷。中国调查公司"我的钢铁网"（Mysteel）的统计显示，热轧卷当前价格 为每吨450美元。处于新冠疫情影响导致需求骤减的2020年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Carbon Neutrality Science and Engineering" major in universities reflects a synchronization between talent supply and industry development, addressing the significant talent gap in the carbon neutrality sector [1][2] Group 1: Talent Supply and Demand - There is a notable talent shortage in the carbon neutrality field, with an estimated gap of nearly one million professionals during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, while the current workforce is around 100,000, most of whom have transitioned from other fields [1] - The new major aims to fill this talent gap by emphasizing systematic thinking and interdisciplinary integration, covering areas such as energy, environment, and artificial intelligence [1] Group 2: Curriculum and Training - The curriculum includes core courses like carbon emission monitoring and assessment, carbon sinks, and ecological restoration, with universities tailoring their programs based on their unique strengths [1] - For instance, Beijing University of Science and Technology integrates materials science with computer and economic management, while Kunming University of Science and Technology focuses on low-carbon governance aligned with local ecological characteristics [1] Group 3: Industry Alignment - The training of carbon neutrality professionals is closely aligned with industry needs, preparing graduates for roles in renewable energy research, industrial low-carbon technology transformation, carbon footprint accounting, and carbon asset management [2] - Collaborations with companies, such as the establishment of practice bases with Baowu Steel Group by Beijing University of Science and Technology, highlight the practical application of the training [2]

研究员: 从业资格号 F03122522 投资咨询号 Z0019832 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099559 投资福句号 Z0020955 薛原 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 内宇薪 从业资格号 F03144159 投资资淘号 Z0022199 老师 钟宏 从业资格号:F03118246 投资咨询号:Z0022727 螺纹需求回暖,钢材供需表现良好 障碍・本局盘面张辐致大刺激下游补库，螺纹表景显著回升。随着电炉利润掉装改善螺纹产量小隔回升，鲜存保位去化。热巷表零季节性回落，整体处于往年同朝正常水平，并冒同比下行，略声增声。中厚板和科供供需求然保持在盛 状态，五大材库存延续去化态势。整体来看，钢材基本面依然健康且未见转弱迹象。在宏观预期常动下盘面拉涨，中游补库意愿较强使得期现价格共振上行。短期价格预计维持震荡偏强运行态势. 风险提示:需求放量、限产严格落实、炉料供给不及预期（上行风险）;出口回落、需求大幅转弱、炉料供给大增、（下行风险） 钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/7/25 TIC Futures Company Limited 图表 3:线材:总库存 图表 2: 螺纹钢: ...

Macro Overview - The core focus for the second half of the year is to consolidate the positive economic situation while addressing prominent issues such as low prices, declining investment growth, and continuity in consumption policies. The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, exceeding expectations [2][3][4] Fixed Income Strategies - In the recent period, strategies such as low-price enhancement, improved dual-low, and high-price high-elasticity recorded returns of 2.6%, 2.3%, and 4.8% respectively, outperforming the benchmark of 2.4%. Year-to-date, these strategies have achieved returns of 9.7%, 21.3%, and 38.4% against a benchmark of 10.3% [12][13][14] Agriculture Sector - The pig farming industry shows a recovery in profitability, with July pig prices stabilizing after a decline. The average price in July was 14.96 yuan/kg, down 8% from the end of 2024. The focus remains on high-quality pig enterprises with good financial conditions [24][25][26] - The pet food sector is in a growth phase, with an increase in market share for quality enterprises. The export value of pet food in the first half of the year saw a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [24][26] Steel Industry - The commencement of the Yajiang hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to boost demand for basic and special steel. The project will require significant amounts of steel, estimated at 180,000 tons for basic materials alone [30][31][33] - The recent publication of the "Rural Road Regulations" is anticipated to release demand for infrastructure upgrades, further benefiting the steel sector [31][33] Investment Recommendations - For the agriculture sector, it is recommended to focus on high-quality pig farming enterprises and monitor cost changes closely. In the steel industry, the focus should be on leading enterprises that can benefit from infrastructure projects and capacity adjustments [26][33]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market experienced slight adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 3600-point mark, closing down 0.34% [2] - The brokerage sector, often seen as a market leader, initially surged but later reversed gains, with stocks like Western Securities hitting the daily limit [2] - Individual stocks remained active, with Xining Special Steel achieving a consecutive five-day limit up, reporting a cumulative increase of 46.81% over four trading days [2][3] Group 2: Company Announcements - Xining Special Steel's latest rolling P/B ratio is 2.31, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.01 [3] - Tibet Tourism also reported a static P/E ratio of 238.16 and a P/B ratio of 3.85, with a trading turnover rate of 5.87% [4] - Both companies highlighted the potential for irrational market behavior and rapid price increases, urging investors to exercise caution [4] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a generally weak performance, with the Hang Seng Index down over 1% [5] - Among the constituents, companies like WuXi Biologics and Nongfu Spring saw gains, while stocks like Kuaishou and New Oriental faced declines [6] Group 4: Futures Market Trends - The domestic futures market saw significant increases across various commodities, including lithium carbonate and glass, with lithium futures rising by 7.94% to 80,480 yuan/ton [9][11] - Glass futures also surged, with prices exceeding 1,300 yuan/ton, marking an increase of over 30% compared to a month ago [10][12] - Other commodities like coking coal and soda ash also experienced substantial price hikes [13]

据金融时报：英国首相斯塔默将施压特朗普以降低英国钢铁进口关税。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight adjustments today, with the Shanghai Composite Index dipping below the 3600-point mark, closing down 0.34% at 3593.38 [4][5] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.32% [4][5] - The brokerage sector, often seen as a market leader, initially surged but later reversed gains, with stocks like Western Securities hitting the daily limit [6] Sector Performance - The construction decoration, building materials, home appliances, and steel sectors saw declines exceeding 1% [5] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical, computer, light manufacturing, and banking sectors performed relatively well [5] Individual Stock Activity - Individual stocks remained active, with several hitting the daily limit, including Xining Special Steel and Tibet Tourism, both achieving five consecutive trading days of limit-up [9][12] - Tibet Tourism reported a static P/E ratio of 238.16 and a P/B ratio of 3.85, indicating a significant premium over the industry average [12] Futures Market - The futures market saw significant gains across various commodities, including lithium carbonate and glass, with lithium futures rising nearly 8% to over 80,000 yuan/ton, marking a 30% increase from a month ago [21][22] - Glass futures also surged, with prices exceeding 1300 yuan/ton, up from around 1000 yuan/ton a month prior [22] - Other commodities like coking coal and soda ash also experienced substantial price increases [23] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market showed a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both declining over 1% [14] - Notable gainers included WuXi Biologics and Nongfu Spring, while stocks like Kuaishou and New Oriental faced declines [15]