2026年02月25日 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期不佳，震荡下行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：表需表现偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：表需表现偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料与现货报价补跌，低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：现货报价补跌，低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -5.5 | -0.74% | | | I2605 | | 740.5 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 519,204 | 24,654 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年02月25日08时14分 报告导读： 供需方面，春节前 247家样本钢厂螺纹产量大幅下降，表观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量大幅下降，库存继续增加，表观需求 处于一年中的低位。整体来看，目前市场整体仍处于节日模式，供需双弱，预计要到元宵节之后才会启动，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速 增加，市场对 2026 年的需求预期相对偏弱。从技术面看，期价目前已经跌破了 12 月低点的支撑，暂时以下行趋势对待，而且持仓量增加，说明空 头更主动。由于当前估值低，下方的空间或有限。 操作建议： 维持观望，不建议追空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 操作建议： 空单可轻仓持有 | 表2：铁矿石相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it offers individual trend intensities for various commodities: - **Positive Trends**: Gold, silver, tin, aluminum, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, logs, p-xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, short fibers, bottle chips, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton [2][18][26][30][36][60][63][71][143][156][173] - **Neutral Trends**: Copper, zinc, lead, alumina, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), double - offset paper, pure benzene, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, sugar, peanuts [8][11][15][22][74][77][80][83][89][94][97][103][107][110][114][123][126][128][147][152][161][164][168][186] - **Negative Trends**: Iron ore, eggs, live pigs [43][178][181] 2. Core Views - **Commodity - Specific Views**: Each commodity's performance is influenced by its unique supply - demand dynamics, cost factors, and macro - economic and industry news. For example, gold and silver showed positive trends during the holiday period; iron ore faced poor demand expectations; and lithium carbonate had a tight supply - demand situation [2][43][36] - **Macro - economic Impact**: Global events such as Trump's tariff policies, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and AI - related economic impacts have affected market sentiment and commodity prices [7] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Oscillated upward during the holiday. The price of domestic and international gold contracts decreased, and trading volume and positions changed. ETF holdings decreased slightly [2][5] - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday gap - up opening. The price of silver contracts decreased significantly, and trading volume and positions also changed [2][5] - **Platinum and Palladium**: Both showed a generally upward - trending pattern. The prices of platinum and palladium contracts rose, and trading volume and positions changed [26] Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rebounded as the US stock market rebounded. Supply - demand data showed changes in inventory and price differentials. Macro - economic and industry news included tariff policies and production data [8] - **Zinc**: Underwent wide - range adjustments. Price, trading volume, and inventory data showed certain fluctuations. News related to tariff policies also affected the market [11] - **Lead**: The increase in domestic inventory restricted price rebounds. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were presented, along with relevant news [15] - **Tin**: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data changed, and there were some macro - economic and industry news [18][19] - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the spring rally. Alumina had increased maintenance, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. A large amount of fundamental data was provided [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Although not the main focus, some related information was mentioned. For example, the price of Brent crude oil futures increased, and it affected the cost of downstream products [64][66] - **P - xylene and PTA**: Had strong cost support, and the market was expected to rise after the holiday. Supply - demand and cost factors were analyzed [63][64][69] - **MEG**: Traded in a range, with a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Inventory and supply - demand information was provided [63][67][70] - **Rubber**: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were presented, and there was some industry news [71] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Was expected to trade in a short - term range. The price, trading volume, and some fundamental data were provided [74] - **LLDPE**: Had strong cost support due to geopolitical disturbances during the holiday. Supply - demand and market conditions were analyzed [77] - **PP**: The C3 raw material was strong, and PDH maintenance remained high. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were provided [80] - **Caustic Soda**: Was mainly trading in a range with cost support. Supply - demand and inventory information were presented [83] - **Pulp**: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were provided, along with industry news [89] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [94] - **Methanol**: Traded in a range. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were provided, and there was some market news [97] - **Urea**: The price center shifted upward. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [103] - **Styrene**: Traded in a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and inventory data were presented, and there was some market news [107] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [110] - **LPG**: Had strong short - term geopolitical disturbances. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [114] - **Propylene**: The fundamentals remained tight, and attention should be paid to post - holiday restocking dynamics. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [114] - **PVC**: Traded in a range. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [123] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil decreased slightly at night, and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded significantly. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [126] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil was difficult to decline in the short term due to production cuts, and soybean oil had limited driving force from US soybeans and rebounded within a range. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [156] - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Soybean meal might rebound and oscillate, and soybeans' spot price increased to catch up, with the futures market oscillating. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [161] - **Corn**: Showed a slightly upward - trending pattern. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some market news [164] - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [168] - **Cotton**: Reached a new high for the year. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [173] - **Eggs**: Traded in a weak - oscillating pattern. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [178] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price was lower than expected, and it was difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [181] - **Peanuts**: Traded in an oscillating pattern. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some market news [186] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Should be treated with an oscillating mindset. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some market news [128] Fibers - **Short Fibers and Bottle Chips**: Had cost support and were expected to be strong in the short term. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented [143] Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: Should be observed. Price, trading volume, and supply - demand information were presented, and there was some industry news [147]

2月22日一早，不到7点半，辽宁本溪本钢板材热连轧厂2300生产作业区作业长耿明璐已在工作岗位。 参加班组班前会、查看轧制计划、明确重点品种生产要点……春节假期值班，工作一如往常。"热轧工 序上游连着炼钢，下游连着冷轧，必须保持稳定生产。"耿明璐说。 隆隆声中，烧得通红的钢坯从加热炉中送出，经过粗轧、精轧、冷却、卷取等流程，变成用于生产管线 钢、汽车板、高强钢等产品的钢卷。 2025年，耿明璐带领班组成功突破28毫米超厚规格钢和2190毫米超宽规格钢的轧制。"轧线过钢通道最 窄的部位不足2300毫米，要想轧制2190毫米宽的钢板，必须对生产参数和来料尺寸进行非常精准的把 控。"耿明璐回忆，"通道的开口度、钢坯宽度……在可能出现问题的每一处，我们都进行了测量和验 证。" 精益求精的辛劳，换来产品下线时的成就感。"这条产线生产的产品，90%以上是非常规钢种，用在重 大工程建设、新能源汽车产业等领域。"耿明璐语带自豪。 通过技术创新、流程优化，2300生产作业区不断突破设计产能。2025年，作业区年产突破600万吨。新 的一年，耿明璐充满期待："我们正在着手智慧工厂建设，未来将实现整条产线的集中控制，产品产量 和质 ...

内容概况：我国在钢渣综合利用方面的研究起步相对较晚。近年来，随着国家对环境保护和固体废弃物 资源化利用的重视程度不断提升，钢渣在筑路、建材以及混凝土等领域的应用逐步拓展。钢渣的有效综 合利用不仅能够回收其中的废钢和金属铁，还能显著提高钢铁企业矿产资源的整体利用率，有助于降低 生产成本，并缓解因钢渣堆存带来的土地占用和环境污染等生态问题。这对推动钢铁企业循环经济发 展、实现节能减排目标以及促进行业可持续发展具有重要意义。数据显示，2025年中国钢渣利用规模约 为12891万吨，同比增长2.8%。未来，随着技术持续进步、政策支持强化以及资源化标准体系的完善， 中国钢渣利用规模有望进一步扩大。 相关上市企业：方大特钢（600507）、首钢股份（000959）、沙钢股份（002075）、华菱钢铁 （000932）、山东钢铁（600022）、杭钢股份（600126）、柳钢股份（601003）、中国建筑 （601668）、中国中铁（601390）、中国铁建（601186）等。 相关企业：郑州沃特节能科技股份有限公司、江苏融达新材料股份有限公司、上海中冶环境工程科技有 限公司、河北物华循环资源有限公司、宝武集团环境资源科技 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 25 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低做多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 05 谨慎追空，待反弹 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/25 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/02/10 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/11 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/12 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/13 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/24 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

黑色建材日报 2026-02-25 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 《国际紧急经济权力法》未授权总统征收大规模关税，对特朗普政府"关税牌"形成掣肘。目前对华整体 关税为 35%，其中原有 25%关税仍然生效，两项基于 IEEPA 征收的 10%关税被裁定非法，后续或以新的全球 关税加以替代，但具体实施细节尚未明确。海外政策不确定性上升，市场风险偏好阶段性回落，对商品价 格形成扰动。综合来看，当前黑色系仍处于多空因素交织的底部博弈阶段。春节假期结束后，需重点关注 板材需求恢复强度、两会政策动向以及"双碳"相关政策是否出现边际变化。短期内黑色系大概率延续区 间偏弱震荡格局，趋势性机会尚未明朗。 ...

螺纹钢： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 春节后首个交易日，螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3027元/吨，较上一交易收 盘价格下跌28元/吨，跌幅为0.92%，持仓增加9.21万手。现货市场仍基本处于休市局面，局部报价下 跌，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格下跌20元/吨至2880元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌20元/吨至3150元/ 吨。据我的钢铁数据，春节周螺纹产量环比增加1.22万吨至170.38万吨，农历同比下降7.29万吨；热卷 周产量环比增加2.05万吨至309.81万吨，农历同比下降13.62万吨。春节周螺纹总库存环比增加129.22万 吨至716.04万吨，农历同比增加62.91万吨，库存累积幅度偏中性；热卷总库存环比增加63.08万吨至 433.85万吨，农历同比增加45.23万吨，热卷库存处于近五年同期最高水平。今年春节螺纹库存累库幅度 不大，但热卷库存累积较大，尤其是热卷库存处于历年同期高位水平。春节后终端需求恢复仍要一个过 程，预计库存整体仍要继续累积3周左右，库存将面临较大的消化压力。 预计短期螺纹盘面仍以偏弱运 行为主。 铁 ...