2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程周报 021-20515355 节前市场波动降低，节后风格或将转 向 市场环境因子跟踪周报（2025.04.30） 分析师：柏逸凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524100001 电话：021-20321081 邮箱：baiyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 1、《关税问题反复，大盘延续稳健—市场 中 观 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.04.27 ）》 2025-04-29 2、《市场进入降波阶段，风格稳定性上升 —量化数据看板跟踪周报（2025.04.20）》 2025-04-23 3、《养老金投资的被动指数产品，收益与 风 险 特 征 解 析 — 量 化 策 略 视 点 》 2024-12-17 投资要点 本报告统计时间为 2025.04.28-2025.04.30。 长假前市场观望情绪有所升温，大盘宽基指数有所回落，但小盘股企稳修复。 分析师：程秉哲 权益市场，五一节前一周，市场风格方面，大小盘风格 ...

金属期权 2025-05-07 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属盘整震荡偏上，构建做空波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系波动较大，适合构 建卖方期权组合策略；（3）贵金属延续偏强走势创历史新高大幅回落后止跌回升，构建牛市价差组合策略、做空 波动率策略和现货避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2506 | 78,320 | 650 | 0.84 | 8 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/06 | -153.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/30 | -151.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/29 | -149.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/28 | -147.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1 ...

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年05月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 2 | | 硅铁：成本拖累价格，硅铁走势偏弱 | 4 | | 锰硅：成本拖累价格，锰硅走势偏弱 | 4 | | 焦炭：政策预期扰动，底部震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：政策预期扰动，底部震荡 | 6 | | 动力煤：观望情绪浓厚，震荡偏弱 | 8 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 9 | 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 05 月 07 日 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 马亮 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 maliang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 20 products experiencing price increases, 25 seeing declines, and 5 remaining stable from mid-April to late April 2025 [2][3]. Price Changes Summary 1. Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) increased by 27.5 CNY to 3193.3 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.9% - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) rose by 33.3 CNY to 3358.3 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.0% - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) increased by 17.5 CNY to 3548.8 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.5% - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) saw a slight increase of 3.0 CNY to 3310.2 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.1% - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) decreased by 12.0 CNY to 4143.6 CNY per ton, a decline of 0.3% - Angle steel (5) fell by 18.3 CNY to 3503.7 CNY per ton, a decrease of 0.5% [4]. 2. Nonferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) increased by 1826.5 CNY to 77680.7 CNY per ton, a rise of 2.4% - Aluminum ingot (A00) rose by 234.6 CNY to 19952.9 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.2% - Lead ingot (1) increased by 87.5 CNY to 16800.0 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.5% - Zinc ingot (0) rose by 222.9 CNY to 22862.9 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.0% [4]. 3. Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) decreased by 24.6 CNY to 661.4 CNY per ton, a decline of 3.6% - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) increased by 8.6 CNY to 867.1 CNY per ton, a rise of 1.0% - Methanol (first grade) saw a slight decrease of 1.4 CNY to 2393.8 CNY per ton, a decline of 0.1% - Pure benzene (industrial grade) decreased by 188.0 CNY to 6092.0 CNY per ton, a decline of 3.0% - Styrene (first grade) fell by 169.6 CNY to 7416.0 CNY per ton, a decline of 2.2% [4]. 4. Energy Products - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 21.2 CNY to 4460.4 CNY per ton, a decline of 0.5% - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell by 108.0 CNY to 4924.0 CNY per ton, a decline of 2.1% - Gasoline (95 National VI) decreased by 83.0 CNY to 8540.8 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.0% - Diesel (0 National VI) fell by 79.0 CNY to 7018.2 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.1% [4]. 5. Coal - Anthracite (washed lump) increased by 27.5 CNY to 960.0 CNY per ton, a rise of 2.9% - Ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) decreased by 5.4 CNY to 520.6 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.0% - Shanxi large mixed coal (5000 kcal) fell by 9.4 CNY to 588.6 CNY per ton, a decline of 1.6% [4]. 6. Agricultural Products - Rice (glutinous) increased by 12.7 CNY to 3938.0 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.3% - Wheat (national standard grade three) rose by 17.8 CNY to 2405.8 CNY per ton, an increase of 0.7% - Corn (yellow corn grade two) increased by 19.6 CNY to 2215.3 CNY per ton, a rise of 0.9% - Soybeans (yellow soybeans) rose by 54.0 CNY to 4242.4 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.3% [5].

Group 1: Report Title and Analyst Information - Report Title: "De-stocking Pressure Remains, Focus on Raw Material Industries - Industry Prosperity Series II" [1] - Analyst: Xu Wenyu,从业资格号: F0299877, Investment Consulting Number: Z0011454, Email: xuwenyu@htfc.com [2] Group 2: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views Manufacturing - Overall: In April, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 6.7%, with a change of - 62.7%. Five industries' manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range, a decrease of 3 month - on - month and 4 year - on - year [4] - Supply: On hold. In April, the manufacturing PMI production index was 49.8, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, and 6 declined [4] - Demand: On hold. In April, the manufacturing PMI new orders were 49.2, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [4] - Inventory: De - stocking continued. In April, the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory increased by 0 percentage points to 47.6. Four industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 11 declined. In March, the manufacturing PMI raw material inventory decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 47.3. Five industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 10 declined [4] Non - manufacturing - Overall: In April, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 23.7%, with a change of - 10.1%. Eleven industries' non - manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 3 year - on - year [5] - Supply: Employment slowed. In April, the non - manufacturing PMI employee index was 46.3, unchanged month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 0.4 percentage points [5] - Demand: Demand declined. In March, the non - manufacturing PMI new orders were 46.4, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry's new orders decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry's decreased by 2.6 percentage points [5] - Inventory: De - stocking continued. In March, the non - manufacturing PMI inventory was 45.3, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 0.7 percentage points [5] Group 4: Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In April, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 6.7%, with a change of - 62.7%. Five industries' manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range, a decrease of 3 month - on - month and 4 year - on - year [10] - Non - manufacturing PMI: In April, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 23.7%, with a change of - 10.1%. Eleven industries' non - manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 3 year - on - year [10] Demand: Focus on the Improvement of Special - Purpose Equipment and Information - Manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the manufacturing PMI new orders were 49.2, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [17] - Non - manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the non - manufacturing PMI new orders were 45.9, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry's new orders decreased by 0.3 percentage points, and the construction industry's decreased by 1.7 percentage points. Five industries improved month - on - month, and 10 declined [17] Supply: Focus on the Contraction of Petroleum and Construction - Manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the manufacturing PMI production index was 49.8, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, and 6 declined. In April, the manufacturing PMI employee index was 48.2, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [24] - Non - manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the non - manufacturing PMI employee index was 45.9, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 3.6 percentage points. Six industries improved month - on - month, and 8 declined [24] Price: Focus on the Pressure of Non - Metallic Products and Real Estate - Manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index was 47.1, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points month - on - month. Four industries' ex - factory prices improved month - on - month, and 11 declined. In terms of profit, in March, the profit trend increased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month, and the overall continued to converge [32] - Non - manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the non - manufacturing charge price index was 47.0, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry decreased by 0.8 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points. Four industries improved month - on - month, and 11 declined. In terms of profit, in March, the profit increased by 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.7 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 1.6 percentage points [32] Inventory: Focus on the Low Levels of the Ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry and the Nation - Manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory increased by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9. Eight industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 7 declined. In March, the manufacturing PMI raw material inventory decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.1. Six industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 9 declined [41] - Non - manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the non - manufacturing PMI inventory was 45.3, an increase of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 0.9 percentage points. Ten industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 5 declined [41] Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides PMI data for various manufacturing industries including special - purpose equipment, general equipment, automobiles, computers, motors, pharmaceuticals, etc., showing values, month - on - month and year - on - year changes, and three - year averages [48][49][52]

金属期权 2025-05-06 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属盘整震荡偏上，构建做空波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系波动较大，适合构 建卖方期权组合策略；（3）贵金属延续偏强走势创历史新高大幅回落后止跌回升，构建牛市价差组合策略、做空 波动率策略和现货避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2506 | 77,220 | -370 | -0.48 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美 4 月 ISM 服务业好于预期，智利 3 月铜产 量同比增加 9% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-06 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国拒绝完全豁免对日本的"对等"关税 美国 4 月非农数据好于预期，新增就业维持在较高水平，表明劳 动力市场没有受到关税的负面影响，美元指数维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 4 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49%，不及预期 综 4 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期，贸易冲突对于经济基本面的影响 正在体现。基本面将会主导债券走势，预计国债以震荡偏强为 主。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国 4 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 录得 51.6 报 国际金价昨日上涨超过 3%，收复了五一假期间的跌幅，市场再 度针对关税和地缘政治风险展开交易。特朗普表示要对海外制 作的美国电影加征关税再度施压市场风险偏好。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 87.17 万吨 节前五大品种去库加速，受补库等因素带动，螺纹表需回升到 291 万吨以上，但市场对短期需求回升的关注度并不算高，需求 走弱预期依然导致钢价承压， ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various upcoming industry reports and presentations, highlighting key topics and speakers [1][4][12] - The first event focuses on Kailong Co., with a performance exchange meeting scheduled for May 6, featuring Wang Liang and Sun, the company's deputy general manager [1] - The second event is a deep report on Pearl River Beer, taking place on May 7, led by analysts Guo Mengjie and Lin Xuxi [1] Group 2 - The third event on May 7 will cover the black electrical appliances industry, specifically emerging markets, with insights from analysts Meng Xin and Zhao Mengfei [1][8] - The fourth event on May 8 will present a deep report on Yixin Group, led by financial analyst Xia Mianang [1][12] - The final event on May 8 will recommend stable medical products, presented by analyst Guo Bin [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]