Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to weak Sino - US economic data. The oil and fat sector may be relatively strong, while the precious metals sector may adjust with fluctuations. Each sub - sector has different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1]. - The non - ferrous sector may face pressure due to weak Sino - US economic data and low demand during the off - season. The black sector may fluctuate, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade. The energy sector may see oil prices fluctuate weakly, and the chemical sector has different trends for different products [2]. - The agricultural sector has different trends for different products. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The commodity market rose slightly by 0.52% last week, with agricultural products leading the rise at 1.25%. Non - ferrous and energy - chemical sectors rose by 0.99% and 0.59% respectively, while precious metals and black sectors fell by 1.23% and 0.27% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were palm oil (5.11%), soda ash (4.73%), and cotton (2.32%), and the top - losers were fuel oil (2.71%), methanol (2.55%), and eggs (2.3%) [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, with the agricultural and black sectors showing an upward trend in volatility. The overall market scale decreased slightly, and the out - flowing funds were mainly concentrated in the precious metals sector [1]. Sector Outlook - **Precious Metals**: The sector declined significantly last week. With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, it may adjust with fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Sino - US economic data is weak, and the demand is at a low level during the off - season. The sector may face pressure in the short - term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade [2]. - **Energy**: The market's expectation of a loose supply - demand relationship is strengthened, and the oil price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: The terminal demand for polyester products is expected to rebound, and the valuation of PX is improving. The glass price is supported by cost, while soda ash may face pressure [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA August report is positive for US soybeans. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had an overall decline of 1.28%, and the total commodity ETFs had a decline of 0.51%. Different commodity ETFs had different performance in terms of net value, yield, scale, share change, and trading volume [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July was lower than expected, leading to an increase in palm oil prices [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾 - The report covers BMD Malaysian palm oil, DGE palm oil, palm oil产区 weather, international supply - demand, domestic supply - demand, and domestic and international palm oil futures - spot prices and spreads [4] 3.2 International Supply and Demand - **MPOB July Report**: No detailed content provided - **India SEA July Report**: No detailed content provided - **Malaysian Palm Oil August Forecast**: No detailed content provided - **Other Important Information**: No detailed content provided - **Export Data**: - According to AmSpec on 2025/8/15, Malaysian exports were 696,425, a 21.3% increase from the previous month and a 16.14% increase from the same period last year. Exports of different types of palm oil had varying trends, with 24 - degree palm oil up 54.23% month - on - month and 44 - degree palm oil up 63.24% month - on - month [25] - According to another data source on 2025/8/15, Malaysian exports were 724,191, a 16.5% increase from the previous month and a 13.60% increase from the same period last year. Exports to major markets such as the EU, India and the sub - continent increased, while exports to China decreased by 76.31% month - on - month [25] - According to SES on 2025/8/10, Malaysian exports were 339,143, a 65.25% increase from the previous month and a 30.77% decrease from the same period last year. Exports to India increased significantly by 137.04% month - on - month, while exports to China decreased by 25.43% month - on - month [27] 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Import Profit**: No detailed content provided - **Palm Oil Transactions**: No detailed content provided - **Palm Oil Inventory**: No detailed content provided 3.4 Domestic and International Palm Oil Futures - Spot Prices, Spreads - **Basis, Monthly Spread, Variety Spread**: No detailed content provided - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest**: No detailed content provided - **FOB Quote**: No detailed content provided

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - Crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [28]. - For natural rubber, consider going long after a pull - back [31]. - PVC will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. - Urea will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [35]. - PX will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. - PTA may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - Ethylene glycol may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - grade chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - For soda ash, pay attention to controlling positions due to the increase in supply and weak demand [42]. - For glass, go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances before contract roll - over [43]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported ore on consumption and prices [45]. - For pulp, the supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability, and there is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [49]. - For copper, pay attention to buying opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - Tin and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [54][55]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [57]. - For palm oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them [62]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [65]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, showing interval - based fluctuations [69][70]. - Apple futures are expected to be affected by increased production [71]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [77]. - Corn prices have support at lower levels in the short - term and pressure at higher levels, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - Log prices are expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US retail sales data was stable, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly declined. Policy changes dominate the market in the short - term, and the prices are expected to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - term. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly pulled back. Policy is the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The high demand for hot metal supports prices, but the supply has increased. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted. Policy affects supply, and prices may continue to adjust in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply and prices have changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The supply is excessive, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards and was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. The "Double - Putin" talks and CFTC data indicate that crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market shows signs of improvement, but the supply in Singapore is still excessive. It is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. Wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and supply - side disruptions continue. Consider going long after a pull - back [29][31]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. It will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures closed flat. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it will fluctuate. It is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [33][35]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply has increased, and the cost support is weak. It will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has slightly increased, demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak. It may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has increased, and the port inventory has accumulated. It may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand has recovered. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [40][41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. Pay attention to controlling positions [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. Go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Supply has little change, and inventory has decreased. The use of imported ore may affect consumption and prices, and the price is expected to stabilize [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose slightly. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability. The inventory is high, and the price rebound space is limited [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48][49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper slightly fluctuated. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Pay attention to buying opportunities [51][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, and the market expects the tin ore to resume production in the fourth quarter. The supply is still in short supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The ore price has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the demand is weak. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The USDA report lowered the US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean supply is loose, and the import cost has increased. Consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [56][57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose. The export volume in the first half of August increased. The domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated. Consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China imposed anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed supply may be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing long positions and holding them [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US and global cotton supply - demand reports were favorable. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, and textile exports have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [63][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to observe [67][69]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production increase has been confirmed. The inventory has decreased, and the price of early - maturing apples has declined [71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average live - pig price declined. The supply in the north has increased, and the price is expected to be observed. The supply in the south is stable. The supply will increase in August, and it is advisable to consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price rose slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory has increased. The supply in August is expected to increase, and consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][77]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the price has pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market [78][80]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs has decreased, and the inventory has declined. The trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [81][83].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][86] Core Views - In July, pig farming companies experienced a decrease in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a reduction in average weight continuing. The total number of pigs slaughtered by 18 companies was 15.96 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 5.39% but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [13][18] - The average price of pigs has shown a slight rebound, with the national average price on August 15 being 13.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs slaughtered also saw a slight increase [21][29] - The poultry sector is experiencing mixed trends, with broiler prices stabilizing after a previous increase, while chick prices remain high. The average price of white feather broilers was 7.20 yuan/kg on August 15, up 0.06 yuan/kg week-on-week [48][51] - The demand for eggs is expected to grow seasonally, with the average price of eggs at 6.40 yuan/kg from August 11 to August 14, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.17 yuan/kg [51] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - July saw a decrease in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a total of 15.96 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 5.39% and a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [13][18] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in July was 128.59 kg, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.01 kg [18][21] - The average selling price of pigs increased to 14.65 yuan/kg in July, a month-on-month increase of 1.90% [18][21] - The industry is under pressure from supply increases, with expectations of a 5.26% to 7.01% increase in slaughter numbers in August [43] Poultry Sector - Broiler prices have stabilized after previous increases, with the average price at 7.20 yuan/kg on August 15, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.06 yuan/kg [48][51] - Chick prices remain high, with the average price at 3.58 yuan per chick, up 0.45 yuan week-on-week [48] - The demand for eggs is expected to rise seasonally, with the average price at 6.40 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 yuan/kg [51] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have increased, with the DCE soybean meal contract closing at 3137 yuan/ton on August 15, a week-on-week increase of 43 yuan/ton [64] - The current market conditions are influenced by USDA reports and trade policies affecting supply and demand dynamics [64]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean exporters are likely to face significant challenges this year as Chinese companies have largely turned to Brazil for their soybean purchases, potentially resulting in the U.S. missing out on billions in sales opportunities [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Chinese importers have secured approximately 8 million tons of soybeans for September, all sourced from South America, primarily Brazil [3]. - By October, Chinese buyers are expected to have contracted around 4 million tons from South America, accounting for half of their monthly demand [3]. - The ongoing stalemate in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with tariffs still in place, is a critical factor preventing U.S. soybeans from entering the Chinese market during the crucial sales period from September to January [3][5]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The current tariff on U.S. soybeans is 23%, which significantly diminishes their competitiveness in the Chinese market [5]. - Last year, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, with 22.13 million tons coming from the U.S., valued at around $12 billion [5]. - Without a reduction in tariffs, U.S. soybeans will struggle to compete on price, despite being cheaper by about $40 per ton than Brazilian soybeans before tariffs are applied [6]. Group 3: Market Shifts - If a tariff agreement is reached by November, there may be a chance for China to resume U.S. soybean purchases, extending the export window for the U.S. [8]. - However, if no agreement is made, U.S. soybean farmers may face severe losses, as Chinese companies have recently built up substantial inventories, reducing immediate demand for U.S. soybeans [8][10]. - The prolonged trade negotiations signal a shift in the competitive landscape, with Brazil increasingly becoming the primary supplier of soybeans to China, diminishing the U.S.'s market share [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with a current price of 53.14 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.15% from the opening price [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 15, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 52.26 cents, reached a high of 53.25 cents, a low of 51.77 cents, and closed at 53.15 cents, marking an increase of 2.11% [2] - As of August 18, the soybean oil futures opened at 53.25 cents per pound, with a trading range between 52.81 cents and 53.27 cents [1] Group 2: Price Changes and Volume - On August 15, Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) C&F price increased by $14 to $1160 per ton, while the November shipment price rose by $11 to $1151 per ton [3] - The national first-class soybean oil trading volume on August 15 was 21,300 tons, which represents a decrease of 61.83% compared to the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Inventory Data - According to the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), the U.S. soybean oil inventory for July 2025 is projected at 1.379 billion pounds, slightly below the market expectation of 1.380 billion pounds, and an increase from 1.366 billion pounds in June 2025 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows diversified trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a relatively strong and volatile state, while some agricultural by - products and soft commodities are in a volatile or weak state. - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 4,068, up 24 with a growth rate of 0.59%, while the price of corn (C2511) is 2,187, down 5 with a decline rate of 0.23% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options vary. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.47, down 0.07, and the open interest PCR is 0.37, up 0.01, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the option underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different options are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,500 and the support level is 4,100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows different characteristics. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 16.15%, up 1.00%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility is 0.12 [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of soybeans are affected by factors such as USDA's adjustment of planting area and yield, and the market shows a volatile pattern. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The market of soybean meal shows a pattern of weak consolidation and then rebound. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils are affected by factors such as USDA's report and India's replenishment. Palm oil shows a bullish trend. Options strategies include constructing a bull spread combination strategy for calls and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market shows a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Options strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for puts and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated by low prices. The market shows a weak consolidation pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase, and the market shows a bearish pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for puts and a bearish call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a low level, and the market shows a pattern of continuous recovery. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates is decreasing, and the market shows a short - term bullish pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bull spread combination strategy for calls and a wide - straddle option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The production of sugar in Brazil shows a decline, and the market shows a bearish pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories is relatively low, and the market shows a short - term weak pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The planting area and yield of corn are expected to increase, and the market shows a weak pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for puts and a bearish call + put option combination strategy [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 56.25 to close at 1042.75 cents per bushel, a 5.7% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 38 to close at 3083 yuan per ton, a 1.25% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2980 yuan per ton, a 2.05% increase; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 124 to close at 2649 yuan per ton; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 90 to close at 2530 yuan per ton, a 3.44% decrease [4]. - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were that the August report unexpectedly cut the area by 2.5 million acres, tightening the supply, which was bullish; the US soybeans were in the critical pod - setting period, and the recent weather forecast turned dry, which might have an adverse impact on crop growth; with the low - price advantage of US soybeans, other countries' procurement of new crops exceeded expectations; the crushing demand in July was strong, providing support. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, with increased volatility. The influencing factors included Trump's post at the beginning of the week hoping that China would increase US soybean imports, the domestic market declined and then rebounded under the emotional impact; the bullish support of the USDA report, combined with the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, tightened the long - term supply expectation [4]. - The cumulative precipitation in the US soybean producing areas in the next two weeks is lower than the average, which needs continuous attention. The USDA report cut the area and significantly raised the yield per unit. If the precipitation in the producing areas continues to be low, the yield per unit may be revised down. The US biodiesel policy is expanding, and the crushing demand is expected to remain strong, still supporting the price. The domestic short - term soybean and soybean meal supply is still available, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 8/15 | 8/8 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1042.75 | 986.50 | 56.25 | 5.70% | Cents/Bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 489.00 | 485.00 | 4.00 | 0.82% | US dollars/ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 456.00 | 443.00 | 13.00 | 2.93% | US dollars/ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | - 54.34 | - 42.65 | - 11.69 | - | Yuan/ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3083.00 | 3045.00 | 38.00 | 1.25% | Yuan/ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2649.00 | 2773.00 | - 124.00 | - 4.47% | Yuan/ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 434.00 | 272.00 | 162.00 | - | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3020.00 | 2940.00 | 80.00 | 2.72% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2980.00 | 2920.00 | 60.00 | 2.05% | Yuan/ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 103.00 | - 125.00 | 22.00 | - | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were the unexpected cut in area in the August report, the dry weather forecast during the pod - setting period, the strong procurement of new crops by other countries, and the strong crushing demand in July. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, influenced by Trump's post, the bullish USDA report, and the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed. The rapeseed meal showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [8]. - The August USDA report was overall bullish, with a cut in the 2025/2026 US soybean planting area, an increase in yield per unit, a decrease in overall production, a decrease in new - crop export demand, an increase in old - crop export demand, and a decline in the 2025/2026 ending inventory. The US soybean growth indicators were in line with expectations, and about 3% of the planting area was affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the producing areas is expected to be lower than the average [9]. - As of the week of August 7, 2025, the US soybean export net sales in the current market year were - 378,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales in the 2024/2025 were 5.112 million tons, which had completed the USDA target. The new - crop export net sales in the 2025/2026 were 1.133 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 471,000 tons. China had not purchased new - crop US soybeans. The US soybean crushing profit and related prices showed certain changes, and the NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in July increased compared with June and July 2024. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were raised [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, the unexecuted contracts decreased, and the national port soybean inventory increased. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the national soybean meal daily average trading volume decreased, the daily average pick - up volume was stable, the main oil mills' crushing volume increased, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were stable [12]. - The US soybean producing area's precipitation needs continuous attention. The US biodiesel policy expansion will support the price. The domestic short - term supply is available, and the long - term supply is expected to be tight. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [13]. Industry News - In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [14]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August were 2.77445327 million tons, with a daily average export volume 27% higher than that in August last year. Canada's June 2025 rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal exports were 651,106 tons, 223,217 tons, and 459,023 tons respectively [14]. - As of August 1, the US soybean, corn, and wheat unplanted areas were 1.199 million acres, 1.818 million acres, and 277,000 acres respectively. As of August 10, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports decreased compared with last year [15]. - The predicted 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production, planting area, and yield per unit increased compared with the previous year and the previous forecast. The Brazilian 2024/25 soybean production, crushing volume, export, soybean oil production, and soybean meal production forecasts were raised [16]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 50.2 million tons, a 2% upward revision [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF to - shore price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually show the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal [19][25][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is oscillating and rising, with short - term weather uncertainties and short - covering. It is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has risen and then fallen, affected by rapeseed meal and technical adjustments. In the short term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The soybean market in China is oscillating and falling, influenced by the decline of US soybeans and technical adjustments. It is affected by the high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [8][10]. - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. The domestic soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term due to the high arrival of imported soybeans, the relatively high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills, and the positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the US agricultural report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is relatively high. Affected by the relatively positive data from the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal market is moderately strong in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High arrival of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price is 2980 (East China), with a basis of - 157, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 244, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10].

最近中加之间的经贸博弈可真是越来越有看头，咱先把事儿捋清楚——中国商务部8月12日发了公告，直接给加拿大进口油菜籽定了性： 存在倾销。紧接着就说了，要收保证金，而且是对所有加拿大公司都收75.8%，从8月14号这周一开始就生效了。有驻新加坡的油菜籽贸易 商跟路透社说，这75%的保证金跟明说"咱不要加拿大油菜籽"没啥区别，这话一点不夸张。 为啥突然下这手？早有铺垫。去年9月9号，商务部就已经对加拿大油菜籽启动反倾销调查了，现在是查明白了：加拿大油菜籽确实在倾 销，还让中国国内的油菜籽产业受了实实在在的损害，这两者之间的因果关系也跑不了。按《反倾销条例》办事，收保证金这步操作合理 合法。 而且这不是中国第一次对加拿大出手了。今年3月就已经给加拿大的菜籽油、油渣饼加了100%的关税，当时国务院关税税则委员会就把话 挑明了——加拿大去年宣布10月1号起给中国电动汽车加100%关税，22号又给中国钢铁、铝产品加25%关税，这明显是损害中国利益，砸 中加经贸的锅。 更关键的是时机，8月正好是加拿大油菜籽要丰收的时候，这时候出手，加拿大农民手里的油菜籽眼看要堆仓库里卖不出去，价格都跌了 快三成，农民协会天天找政府要说法。加 ...