1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is experiencing strong supply and demand. After the holiday, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has exceeded market expectations, and the market volatility has increased. From a seasonal perspective, downstream demand may experience a seasonal decline around the Spring Festival. Both upstream and downstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to conduct futures and options hedging according to their risk management needs [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to remain at a high level. Although the short - term demand is fair during the traditional peak season in October, the supply pressure in the polysilicon industry is significant, and future production reduction is expected. The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - In the polysilicon market, the high profit has driven high production enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. With the possible implementation of photovoltaic capacity control policies, the market shows a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is characterized by strong supply and demand but a weakening atmosphere. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 80,000. It is expected to decline in an oscillatory manner. Upstream enterprises should seize the opportunity to conduct selling hedging when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to stocking up at low prices or conducting buying hedging [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is under pressure. However, there is certain policy support at the lower price. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. It is expected to oscillate within a range. Currently, an interval long - position strategy can be considered [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamental pressure has led to a significant decline in the futures price. Before the implementation of capacity control policies, the market may fluctuate. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Previous long positions are recommended to be closed, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the future [15]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [16]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 75,700 | 0.00% | 169,108 | 138,434 | - 20,566 | 30,705 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,565 | 1.60% | 190,332 | 114,236 | - 17,557 | 49,303 | | Polysilicon | 50,340 | - 3.66% | 150,772 | 56,806 | - 11,421 | 9,150 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium reached 21,066 tons, a 431 - ton increase from the previous week, hitting a new weekly high. All lithium - extraction processes showed an upward trend. The total sample inventory was 132,658 tons, a 2,143 - ton decrease from the previous week, with an accelerating de - stocking speed, but the inventory remained at a high level. The downstream inventory decreased slightly [4]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly apparent demand for lithium salts reached 23,209 tons, hitting a new weekly high [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: With the arrival of the flat - water period, electricity prices in some south - western regions have increased, and some factories have shut down furnaces. There are signs of复产 in the north - western region, and the overall supply is expected to remain high [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: During the traditional peak season in October, the short - term demand is fair. However, the polysilicon industry is facing significant supply pressure, and future production reduction is expected [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Driven by high profits, enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the production in October is expected to exceed expectations. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating significantly [8]. - **Downstream Situation**: The National Energy Administration announced that the new photovoltaic installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, a new low for the year. Downstream production cuts are being gradually implemented [8].

Report Information - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract declined. The closing price of the PS2512 contract was 52,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.66%. The trading volume was 71,494 lots, and the open interest was 79,793 lots, with a net decrease of 10,118 lots. The spot price of n-type polycrystalline silicon re-feeding material had a transaction price range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat month-on-month. The basis of the PS2512 contract was 4,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The expected output of polycrystalline silicon in October is not less than 130,000 tons, an increase of more than 30,000 tons compared to the monthly output before the anti-involution policy (June). The current output level can meet the terminal demand of about 63GW. The expected monthly output of silicon wafers and solar cells is 60.12GW and 47GW respectively, while the terminal demand has shrunk to about 10GW. With the export demand remaining at about 40GW, the pressure in the industrial chain will be transmitted from the bottom up. The weak fundamentals will drag down the continuous price increase. However, the policy-driven factor takes precedence over the fundamentals. There is a policy to support the bottom of the spot price, and the market also has positive expectations for storage or increased production cuts. Therefore, the spot price remains stable, and the futures price fluctuates widely within the current range. During the period when funds are sensitive to news, market rumors should be treated with caution [4]. Market News - On October 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 9,450 lots, an increase of 540 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - From January to August, the cumulative new installation was 230.61GW, a year-on-year increase of 65%. However, the new installation in August was only 7.36GW, a year-on-year decrease of 55% and a month-on-month decrease of 33% [5]. - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year (the growth rate of added value is the real growth rate after deducting price factors). On a month-on-month basis, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.64% in September. From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5]. - From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% in September [5]. - On October 16, there were rumors that a polycrystalline silicon storage platform had been established, with the platform company's industrial and commercial registration completed (named "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd.") and a co-managed account opened. However, a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5].

Group 1: 康方生物 (Kangfang Biologics) - The report highlights that the PD-1 drug,依沃西, has shown significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) for first-line lung squamous cell carcinoma, with median PFS of 11.1 months compared to 6.9 months for the control group, achieving a hazard ratio of 0.60 and a p-value of <0.0001 [1] - The company has received acceptance for a new indication application from the CDE in July 2025, with peak sales expectations in mainland China projected at RMB 7.1 billion [1] - The report maintains a buy rating with a target price of HKD 183, indicating a potential upside of 49.3% from the closing price of HKD 122.60 [1][2] Group 2: 协鑫科技 (GCL-Poly Energy) - The report indicates that GCL-Poly has turned profitable in its photovoltaic materials segment, reporting a profit of RMB 960 million in Q3, largely driven by a significant increase in polysilicon prices since late July [3] - The company announced a plan to issue 4.74 billion shares at HKD 1.15 per share, raising approximately HKD 5.392 billion for capacity expansion and other purposes [3] - The new national standards for polysilicon energy consumption are expected to tighten significantly, which may benefit the elimination of outdated production capacity [3] Group 3: 互联网行业 (Internet Industry) - The report notes a steady growth in e-commerce, with adjusted online retail sales for physical goods increasing by 7.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [8] - Key players like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo are expected to maintain robust growth, with Alibaba's GMV growth aligning with market trends and JD's retail growth remaining stable [8][9] - The report emphasizes the potential of instant retail as a growth driver, particularly with the extended promotional periods leading up to major sales events [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, leading to a rise in market risk appetite [17]. - Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Future trends depend on domestic and foreign policy changes [2]. - During the Fourth Plenary Session, there are relatively many policies. It is advisable to be cautious in the short - term. If the market risk preference fails to strengthen, the bond market will turn stronger [25]. - The cost of imported soybeans supports the soybean meal price, but the current supply - demand situation is weak, and sufficient soybean supply is expected in the fourth quarter. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [4]. - In September, economic data continued to show structural differentiation. The overall terminal demand was weak, with real estate and infrastructure demand remaining sluggish and manufacturing showing resilience. High pig iron production will suppress the subsequent inventory reduction speed, limiting the upward space for steel prices [5]. - The continuous inventory reduction during the peak season supports the lithium carbonate price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disruptions [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government continues to be shut down. The gold price hit a new high, and overseas gold and silver ETF holdings increased, while the domestic market was weak. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level this week, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and Australia signed a key minerals agreement, and the US Senate will "pause" the new round of sanctions against Russia. The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, and market risk preference has recovered [15][16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR quotation in October remained stable. China's economic data in September showed differentiation. The bond market fluctuated and declined today due to Trump's softened stance towards China, but market risk preference has not been strongly activated [22][23][24]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term trading this week. If market risk preference fails to strengthen, look for opportunities to build long - term long positions at low prices [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On October 20, the steam coal price in the northern port market was strong. The downstream demand increased last week, and the coal price rose. After the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance ends, the supply of port spot will increase, and the coal price increase is expected to narrow this week [26]. - Investment advice: The coal price will remain strong in the short - term [26]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' iron ore production in the third quarter increased significantly. The iron ore price continued to be weak and volatile. The terminal orders weakened, the steel mill inventory pressure increased, and the steel mill profit was compressed. It is expected that the pig iron production will decline in November [27]. - Investment advice: The potential for production cuts is approaching. The iron ore price will remain weak in the short - term, but the downward valuation space is limited [27]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 17, the inspection volume of US cotton was slow. In September, the export unit price of cotton products rebounded slightly month - on - month. China imported 100,000 tons of cotton and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn in September [28][29][30]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has been resistant to decline recently. However, as the new cotton is listed, the hedging pressure will limit the upward space, and the downstream orders are insufficient. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [31][32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory of major oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. In September, China imported 0 tons of soybeans from the US, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 24% [34][35][36]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian production area and Sino - US relations. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 to 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.4% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly [37][38]. - Investment advice: The market lacks driving forces in the short - term and is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, pay attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil [39][40]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to September, China's infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports showed different trends, and the real estate investment continued to decline. The overall terminal demand was weak, and the high pig iron production limited the upward space for steel prices [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short - term [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - In Xinjiang, jujubes in some areas are in the drying stage. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fluctuated and closed down today. The price of jujubes in the distribution areas is stable, and merchants purchase goods as needed [47][48]. - Investment advice: Wait and see before the market logic becomes clear. Pay attention to the price game in the production area and downstream consumption [48]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 20, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions showed differentiation. In the future, the inventory pressure and production reduction expectations of starch may be mainly concentrated in the Northeast [49]. - Investment advice: The price difference between starch and corn futures is expected to recover after entering the delivery month. The price difference of 01 and 03 contracts is at a low level and is not expected to shrink further [49]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is rising. Snowy weather and farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a decrease in downstream arrivals. The spot price is expected to decline, while the futures price may enter a volatile bottom - grinding period [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the implementation of wheat auction rumors [50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In September, China's polysilicon export volume decreased by 28.17% month - on - month. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand has weakened marginally since late October, and the silicon wafer price is under pressure [51][52]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not decline in October. Consider long - position opportunities when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In September, China's industrial silicon export volume increased by 7.73% year - on - year. Some silicon plants in the South are expected to reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November and will be reduced by 15,000 tons in December [54][55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 17, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.85/ton. In September, the import of lead concentrates increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The export of lead - acid batteries decreased, and the import increased [55][56]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity for cross - market trading [56]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the third quarter increased by 6%. In September, the export volume of galvanized sheets increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of zinc concentrates increased [57][58][60]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy for cross - market trading and take profits in batches at low prices [61]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In September, China's unforged nickel import volume increased significantly, especially from Russia. The short - term macro situation is still volatile. The global visible inventory has increased significantly, and the price is fluctuating above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [62]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider long - position opportunities at low prices. Speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [63]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, China's lithium ore import volume increased by 14.7% month - on - month. The first batch of lithium concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project was shipped. The inventory has been decreasing, which supports the price, but further upward momentum depends on supply - side disruptions [64][66]. - Investment advice: Use range - bound trading in the short - term. Consider short - position opportunities after the demand peaks this year. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive spread opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [67]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine is being affected by illegal mining. In September, China's scrap copper import volume increased by 14.84% year - on - year [68][69]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short - term. Consider long - position opportunities at low prices for single - side trading. Wait and see for spread trading [70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Guangzhou Petrochemical's partial device maintenance has reduced the liquefied gas production. The East China liquefied gas price has declined due to factors such as fundamental imbalance and falling paper - futures prices [71][72]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - A Russian refinery was affected by a drone attack. The oil price is weak and volatile. Market risk preference supports the oil price, but concerns about supply surplus continue to put pressure on it [74]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and volatile in the short - term [75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price has been slightly stronger. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot trading is light. The PVC fundamentals remain weak, and the inventory is high [76][77][78]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short - term, and the downward space is limited [78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 20, the styrene inventory in the East China main port increased. The styrene price declined, and the inventory is a key issue. The production profit has decreased, and the cost support is not obvious [79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negative feedback of pure benzene downstream products. The styrene industry needs a low - profit level to slow down the inventory accumulation in the main port [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of October 20, the asphalt factory and social inventories decreased. The BU futures price was weak last week, and the spot price continued to decline. The demand recovery is limited, and the weak international oil price may affect the asphalt price [81][82]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short - term [83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 20, the domestic soda ash factory inventory increased slightly. The soda ash futures price rose and then fell, affected by the bearish sentiment in the glass market. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse is high [84]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for soda ash in the medium - term, and pay attention to the new capacity release [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 20, the float glass price in the Hubei market declined. The glass futures price continued to fall due to the failure of supply - reduction expectations and the cooling of macro - positive expectations [85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term as the market is bearish, but the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the risk of short - selling is high [85].

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 格隆汇10月20日｜据SMM了解，受近期会议以及丰/枯水期电价影响，多晶硅国内西南地区部分基地于 近日开始逐渐减少原料投放量，预计将在10月底-11月初完全停产，目前涉及产能约32万吨/年。 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook for Each Metal Copper - Market Review: On October 20, the Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton, up 0.73%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 6,102 lots to 536,600 lots. Spot copper prices had a stable bottom - support, with Shanghai spot copper at a premium of 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Guangdong inventory decreased after the weekend, but downstream procurement was sluggish due to high prices. The North China market was mainly for rigid - demand and long - term order delivery, with low activity [2]. - Logic Analysis: Macro - economically, Sino - US trade relations eased, and the 3rd Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee was in focus. Fundamentally, supply - side disturbances in copper mines increased, with expectations of processing fees dropping to 0 dollars/ton or lower next year. SMM predicted that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons, a decrease of 38,500 tons from the previous month. Consumption showed a marginal weakening, but rigid demand was resilient [7]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a "buy - on - dips" approach, be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads, take profit when the export window opens, and then enter positive spreads again. Consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [8]. Alumina - Market Review: The Alumina 2601 contract rose 4 yuan to 2,806 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend, with some regions experiencing price drops [9]. - Logic Analysis: The previous supply - demand surplus in alumina was absorbed by downstream electrolytic aluminum plant stockpiling, but as stockpiling was completed, the surplus became more significant. Some production cuts and maintenance started in October, and more were expected in November [12]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Keep an eye on supply - side changes. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,272 lots to 487,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions also declined [14]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US officials' communication improved market sentiment. Economic data releases and important Chinese meetings were in focus. Fundamentally, consumption resilience supported prices [17]. - Trading Strategy: With improved macro - expectations, take a "buy - on - dips" approach to aluminum prices, be cautious about chasing high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2512 contract fell 125 yuan to 20,350 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 107 lots. Spot prices in different regions remained stable [22]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US officials' communication improved market sentiment. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supported costs, but high social inventory and warehouse receipts might suppress the upside. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [26]. - Trading Strategy: With improved tariff panic, take a "buy - on - dips" approach to aluminum alloy prices, which are expected to strengthen in the medium - term. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [27]. Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 contract fell 0.34% to 21,850 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index adding 7,322 lots to 236,600 lots. Spot trading in Shanghai was mainly among traders, with downstream enterprises having low purchasing enthusiasm [30]. - Logic Analysis: At the mine end, import losses of zinc ore increased, and domestic processing fees declined. At the smelting end, although profits were narrowed, smelters' enthusiasm remained high. Consumption was expected to weaken as the traditional peak season passed. An external - strong and internal - weak pattern was likely to continue [35]. - Trading Strategy: Partially liquidate profitable short positions and re - short at high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [37]. Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai Lead 2512 contract rose 0.12% to 17,090 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index adding 1,361 lots to 81,300 lots. Spot prices increased slightly, and downstream battery manufacturers had a certain purchasing willingness [39]. - Logic Analysis: With the resumption of production of secondary lead and the increase in primary lead production in mid - to - late October, lead supply might increase, and prices were at risk of falling [41]. - Trading Strategy: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions at high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42]. Nickel - Market Review: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 fell 630 yuan to 120,860 yuan/ton, with the index adding 7,691 lots. Spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel increased, while those of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained stable [44]. - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment became more volatile. Although nickel ore prices provided cost support, the supply - demand surplus was difficult to reverse. Nickel prices were expected to oscillate widely with a downward trend [47]. - Trading Strategy: Short when prices rebound to the upper limit of the oscillation range. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The Stainless Steel main contract SS2512 fell 20 yuan to 12,595 yuan/ton, with the index reducing 5,239 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were at certain levels [52]. - Logic Analysis: The spot price was below the steel mill's cost. Terminal demand in October was still not optimistic, and steel mills might further cut production. Stainless steel was likely to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern [53]. - Trading Strategy: Expect weak oscillations. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage [56]. Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai Tin 2511 contract closed at 279,340 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan/ton or 0.72%, with positions decreasing by 1,300 lots to 63,665 lots. Spot prices were stable, and downstream purchasing improved slightly [59]. - Logic Analysis: Trade uncertainties and concerns in the US credit market pressured LME metals. Although Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining, the impact on tin production was limited. Supply was still tight, and demand recovered slowly. Tin prices were expected to oscillate weakly [61]. - Trading Strategy: Tin prices may oscillate weakly in the short term due to macro - disturbances. Temporarily hold off on options trading [62]. Industrial Silicon - Logic Analysis: In November, polysilicon production cuts would be negative for industrial silicon demand. Before large - scale production cuts in Southwest industrial silicon plants, there was a slight surplus, and prices were under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, price support might appear after production cuts in November [67]. - Strategy Suggestion: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for a full correction. There are no arbitrage and option strategies for now [68]. Polysilicon - Logic Analysis: In November, leading manufacturers' production cuts would significantly improve the supply - demand balance. Currently, with no further news on capacity integration, some funds left the market, and the futures price might correct further [75]. - Strategy Suggestion: Avoid long positions in the short term. Hold reverse spreads of the 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range of (- 3300, - 3000). Adjust the previous double - buying strategy, take profit on the put option and hold the call option [77]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The Lithium Carbonate 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 75,940 yuan/ton, with the index adding 387 lots and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increasing by 19 to 30,705 tons. Spot prices increased [81]. - Logic Analysis: Lithium carbonate prices rose, and lithium ore prices also increased. Although imports in September decreased, demand was strong, and prices might rise further if supply risks occurred [83]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a "buy - on - dips" approach. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [86]. Group 2: Important Industry Data Copper - Inventory: As of October 20, SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 9,100 tons to 186,600 tons compared to last Thursday. Imported copper supply was expected to continue, while domestic supply was expected to decrease. Consumption was expected to slightly recover, and weekly inventory might decrease [3]. - Production: Zijin Mining's copper production from January to September was 830,000 tons, up 5% year - on - year. In Q3, production was 260,000 tons, down 6% quarter - on - quarter [6]. - Trade: In September 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,586,873.52 tons, down 6.24% month - on - month but up 6.43% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 374,075.58 tons, up 21.76% month - on - month and 7.44% year - on - year [3][4]. Alumina - Inventory: As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, up 115,000 tons from the previous week. Some electrolytic aluminum plants increased long - term order execution and spot purchases, but transportation issues affected inventory distribution [11]. - Trade: In September 2025, China exported 246,000 tons of alumina, up 36.5% month - on - month and 82.3% year - on - year; imported 60,000 tons, down 36.4% month - on - month but up 61.7% year - on - year [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Inventory: On October 20, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 620,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday [16]. - Production: From January to September, real estate development data showed a decline in construction area, new construction area, and completion area [16]. Zinc - Inventory: As of October 20, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, up 2,200 tons from October 13 and 2,600 tons from October 16 [31]. - Trade: In September 2025, China imported 505,400 tons of zinc concentrates, up 8.15% month - on - month and 24.94% year - on - year; imported 22,700 tons of refined zinc, down 11.6% month - on - month and 57% year - on - year [31][32]. Lead - Inventory: As of October 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major regions monitored by SMM was 37,700 tons, up 1,800 tons from October 13 [40]. - Trade: In September 2025, lead concentrate imports increased 11.72% month - on - month but decreased 7.21% year - on - year. Refined lead exports decreased 46% month - on - month, and imports decreased 17.17% month - on - month [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Trade: In September 2025, China imported 19,596.90 tons of lithium carbonate, down 10.30% month - on - month but up 20.49% year - on - year; exported 150.82 tons, down 59.12% month - on - month and 9.08% year - on - year [82].

Group 1: Futures Market - The total capital in China's futures market has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - As of October 9, 2025, the total client equity of futures companies is about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth from the end of 2024 [1] - New monthly average futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be launched for trading on October 28, 2025 [1] Group 2: Smart Glasses Market - IDC forecasts that global shipments of smart glasses will exceed 40 million units by 2029, with China's market share expected to steadily increase [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the Chinese smart glasses market from 2024 to 2029 is projected to be 55.6%, the highest globally [1] Group 3: Silicon Market - The price of N-type polysilicon is reported between 50.6 to 55 yuan per kilogram, with a price index of 52.69 yuan per kilogram, indicating a stable market with limited transactions [1] - October's polysilicon production is expected to be around 133,500 tons, showing an increase compared to September, exceeding previous market expectations [1] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Apple is reportedly investigating issues related to Apple Music and Apple TV+ [2] - JD has updated vehicle data, revealing a high-strength cage design for its new car model, enhancing impact resistance by 18% [2] - Yushutech announced the release of the H2 bionic humanoid robot, which stands 180 cm tall and weighs 70 kg [2] Group 5: Financial Reports - Jiahuan Technology reported a 15.1% decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue down 10.57% [7] - Dayang Bio achieved a 56.12% increase in net profit year-on-year for the first three quarters, with revenue up 11.24% [8] - Weili Medical's net profit grew by 14.94% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with revenue increasing by 12.33% [9] - Yonghe Co. reported a significant 220.39% increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with revenue up 12.04% [10] - Jinli Permanent Magnet's net profit surged by 161.81% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with revenue growth of 7.16% [11] - Shanhua Pharmaceutical Auxiliary's net profit increased by 8.28% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with revenue growth of 8.09% [12] - Alloy Investment reported a 124.87% increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with revenue up 54.61% [13] - Chuanjinno's net profit grew by 175.61% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with revenue increasing by 27.57% [14] Group 6: Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the ChiNext Index closing up 1.98% [15] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [15] - Various sectors showed activity, with coal and gas stocks performing well, while precious metals faced declines [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply scale of the polysilicon industry remains large, with partial corporate production cuts falling short of expectations, leading to continued accumulation of social inventory and increasing supply - side pressure [2]. - The demand side is relatively weak, with sluggish demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain, reduced demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers, and narrowing industry gross margins [2]. - The European market has high inventory, suppressing import demand, while the US tariff policy's loosening only drives the growth of energy - storage system exports, which cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets show a surge in demand, buffering the decline in the demand side [2]. - If supply pressure continues to increase, high inventory will exert significant downward pressure on prices. Polysilicon prices have started to decline, mainly affected by market sentiment. With some factories planning to stop production in the dry season, the market sentiment's feedback needs to be observed. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,340 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the main position volume is 56,806 lots, down 11,421 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,490 yuan, up 35 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 41,775 yuan/ton, down 2,135 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 175 yuan/ton, down 1,710 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.53 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense, and re - feed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,565 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the spot price is 9,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons, and the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69.857 million kilowatts, up 3.475 million kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 units, up 38,589,900 units; the monthly import volume is 21,440,200 units, up 6,914,600 units, and the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Affected by recent meetings and the electricity price during the wet/dry season, some polysilicon bases in Southwest China have gradually reduced raw - material input and are expected to completely stop production from late October to early November, with the involved production capacity being about 320,000 tons/year [2]. - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments have adjusted the value - added tax policy for wind power generation and other industries [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific products: - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish [8] - **Polysilicon**: Sideways [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bullish [88] 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the new energy sector have not changed significantly, but news has triggered market fluctuations. For example, the polysilicon futures price rose due to the news of a capacity storage platform, but the market sentiment may drive the price down after the rumor was confirmed false [9]. - Industrial silicon supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, so the silicon price may be weak. Lithium carbonate prices are pushed up in the short - term due to supply - demand mismatch, but the long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [8][88]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Colored and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The report provides the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual percentage changes of various有色金属 and new energy products. For example, the current price of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 97,500 tons, a 2.09% increase from the previous week. The production in the northwest region is increasing. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month, and the planned production in October is 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from September [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon and silicone has decreased. For example, the weekly production of polysilicon is 31,500 tons, a 1.28% decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: The dominant inventory is 696,100 tons, a 0.31% increase from the previous week, with a 21.52% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, remaining the same as last week, and the profit per ton is 132 yuan, a 1 - yuan decrease from last week [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the silicon price may be weak [8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 31,500 tons, a 1.28% decrease from the previous week. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from September [9]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 13.66 GW, a 0.11% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.31 GW, a 3.16% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 26,350 tons, a 3.78% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 25,830 tons, a 5.77% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,493 yuan, a 0.12% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,107 yuan, a 50 - yuan increase from last week [9]. - **Macro Factor**: On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a document emphasizing not to bid below cost [9]. - **Investment View**: Sideways. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the price may return to the previous sideways range after the false rumor [9]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. The planned production in October is about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from September [88]. - **Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month [88]. - **Demand**: - **Lithium Salt Materials**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,200 tons, a 0.12% increase from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 19,000 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week [88]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In September, the production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 16.29% increase from the previous month, and the sales were 1.604 million vehicles, a 14.96% increase from the previous month [88]. - **Energy Storage**: From January to August, the cumulative domestic energy - storage winning bid power was 41.09 GW/111.43 GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase year - on - year [88]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 132,700 tons, a 1.59% decrease from the previous week. Lithium salt factory inventory is 34,300 tons, a 1.34% decrease from the previous week [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica - extracted lithium is 75,870 yuan/ton, a 2.49% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 5,918 yuan/ton, a 1,397 - yuan increase from last week [88]. - **Investment View**: Bullish. Strong terminal demand stimulates downstream purchases, leading to inventory reduction. Although production has increased, which may suppress the futures price, the short - term supply - demand mismatch pushes up the price [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].