Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices, driven by various factors including increased demand for gold ETFs and the failure of traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, yen, and Swiss franc to attract investment during times of uncertainty [4][8][12]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, gold prices have continued their strong performance from 2025, with prices rising from $4,300 per ounce to a peak of $4,650 per ounce, marking a historical high [6]. - The price of gold saw a dramatic increase of 90% within a year, from under $3,000 per ounce to over $4,400 per ounce by late October [6][7]. - Gold's long-term performance has been exceptional, with a cumulative increase of over 600% from 2000 to 2025, significantly outperforming major stock indices and bonds [10]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The core logic supporting the current rise in gold prices includes sustained purchases by central banks, steady demand from private investors, and the strengthening of gold's status as a safe-haven asset [12][13]. - In 2025, major economies entered a rate-cutting cycle, historically correlating with rising gold prices due to increased liquidity, reduced opportunity costs for holding gold, and a weakening dollar [15]. - The unusual rise in U.S. Treasury yields during the current rate-cutting cycle has raised concerns about the dollar's credibility, further driving investors towards gold [18]. Group 3: Changes in Market Participation - Gold ETFs have emerged as a significant source of new capital driving gold prices higher, with retail investors increasingly participating through these vehicles due to lower barriers to entry and higher liquidity compared to physical gold [20][22]. - The shift towards gold ETFs has altered the perception of gold, enhancing its financial attributes while diminishing its traditional role as a store of value [22][24]. - The influx of retail investment through gold ETFs has amplified market activity and contributed to the rapid price increases observed in 2025 [20][22]. Group 4: Broader Metal Market Trends - The overall metal market in 2025 has shown strength, with both precious and base metals experiencing significant price increases, driven by concerns over global resource supply chains [26][28]. - The protective trade policies of the Trump administration have heightened global anxieties regarding resource security, prompting countries to stockpile strategic metals like silver, copper, and aluminum [28][29]. - Silver and other precious metals have outperformed gold in 2025, reflecting their dual role as both safe-haven assets and essential industrial materials [29].

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：关税预期波动 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪稍有回升，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：下方有支撑 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注缅甸复产 | 9 | | 铝：24000一线震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：反弹沽空 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：高位震荡 | 12 | | 钯：金银回调，上方承压 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 期货研究 2026年01月22日 商 品 研 究 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 22 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：关税预期波动 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 ...

周三格陵兰危机出现逆转，特朗普称与北约就格陵兰的"未来协议"达成框架，并且在此前讲话中表示不 会动用武力夺取该岛，受此影响原油价格小幅上涨，黄金则在创下历史新高后回落。伦敦铜价走高。 原油：油价小幅上涨 市场揣摩特朗普所说的格陵兰协议"框架" 原油周三小幅走高，交易员在评估美国总统特朗普所说的美国已就格陵兰问题达成一项协议"框架"。 WTI原油上涨不到1%，收于每桶61美元下方，跟随股市与美元走高。特朗普表示，他将不会实施此前 威胁的、针对反对他得到格陵兰的欧洲国家加征的关税。 此外投资者对美国可能针对伊朗采取军事行动的担忧再度升温，给油价增添了额外的地缘政治风险溢 价。特朗普仍在向助手施压，要求就伊朗提出"决定性"的军事选项。 Buffalo Bayou Commodities的宏观交易主管Frank Monkam表示，油市反应似乎相对温和。他说，"今天 的价格表现基本是在区间内交易，带有上行偏向；在伊朗局势更清晰之前，投资者会趁回调买入。眼下 伊朗暂时退居次席，格陵兰/达沃斯成了主线"。 国际能源署上调了其对2026年全球石油需求增长的预测，略微削减了所预计的供应过剩规模，也帮助为 市场提供了支撑。不过， ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Precious Metals**: Prices are experiencing fluctuations but are trending upwards. [1] - **Copper**: Short-term sentiment is volatile, but long-term fundamentals remain intact. [6] - **Aluminum**: Prices are maintaining high levels amidst mixed macroeconomic signals. [9] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to supply and demand changes. [11] - **Lithium**: Inventory is decreasing, and export tax policies may lead to front-loaded demand. [13] - **Rare Earths**: Prices are recovering due to policy impacts and pre-holiday inventory demand. [16] Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold**: The rise in central bank gold purchases and gold ETF holdings is expected to support gold prices through 2026. [2][4] - **Silver**: A decline in London silver leasing rates is noted, while U.S. silver inventories are decreasing rapidly. [5] - **Copper Demand**: Despite short-term pressure on copper prices due to macroeconomic adjustments and Nvidia's data center demand corrections, tight supply conditions and ongoing demand from AI and power grid construction are expected to support prices. The State Grid's projected fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan represents a 40% increase from the previous plan. [7][8] - **Aluminum Supply and Demand**: New domestic electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up production, while alumina prices are declining, leading to inventory pressures. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to weaken demand, with aluminum ingot inventories increasing significantly. [9][10] - **Tin Market Dynamics**: Recent high prices have led to increased production in Myanmar and higher production quotas in Indonesia, but demand is being suppressed by these high prices. [12] - **Lithium Market Outlook**: The reduction in lithium inventory and the anticipated decrease in export tax for battery products may lead to stronger demand in the off-season. [14][15] - **Rare Earths Investment Value**: The strategic importance of rare earths continues to be highlighted, with a positive outlook on their investment value. [18] Additional Important Information - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic adjustments and expectations surrounding the new Federal Reserve Chair. [2][4] - **Aluminum Processing Rates**: The processing rate for aluminum products has slightly increased, indicating some resilience in the industry despite high prices. [9]

1月21日，随着全球宏观不确定性加剧，贵金属及基本金属的市场走势备受关注。瑞银贵金属策略师 Joni Teves日前在接受采访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零售 投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美联 储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带动 及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供需格局趋紧，价格 中枢有望抬升。 (中证报) 来源：滚动播报 ...

随着交易员权衡黑海地区石油供应受到的干扰以及格陵兰危机引发的市场震动，原油价格走高。美欧围 绕格陵兰的紧张局势未见缓解，美国股债市场遭抛售，再加上隔夜日本国债市场大跌，投资者进入避险 模式，提振黄金和白银价格双双创出新高，伦敦市场基本金属则大多下跌。 原油：油价上涨 黑海地区供应前景与格陵兰局势受关注 油价上涨，交易员权衡黑海地区供应受阻的影响，以及美国总统特朗普计划收购格陵兰岛引发的市场波 动。 周二到期的WTI 2月合约上涨1.5%，收于每桶60美元上方。更为活跃的3月合约涨幅相近。 供应受阻对价格形成支撑，哈萨克斯坦最大的石油生产商近日在发电机火灾后暂停了Tengiz和Korolev油 田的生产。报道称，Tengiz油田还将停产7至10天。 哈萨克斯坦已在无人机袭击影响位于俄罗斯的里海石油管线（CPC）装运码头后削减了原油产量。 "今天上午原油走高是源于对CPC装载的持续担忧，这在近期乌克兰袭击后仍然受限，"CIBC Private Wealth Group高级能源交易员Rebecca Babin指出。"与此同时，更广泛的地缘政治风险依然居高不下， 令交易员密切关注相关消息。" 特朗普在社交媒体上再次对 ...

1月20日，国际金价在避险需求推动下再度刷新历史新高，伦敦金现货价格、COMEX黄金期货价格双 双突破4700美元/盎司。2026年以来，国际贵金属市场延续强势格局，铜价亦在高位运行。 随着全球宏观不确定性加剧，贵金属及基本金属的市场走势备受关注。瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日 前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零 售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美 联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带 动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供需格局趋紧，价 格中枢有望抬升。 ● 本报记者葛瑶 金价后市仍有上涨空间 Teves表示，黄金市场正经历结构性变化，多元化配置已成为推动金价上涨的核心动力。这一趋势体现 在机构投资者、零售投资者和官方部门等各类需求主体。在宏观环境充满不确定性、政策可预测性下降 的当下，投资者迫切需要分散风险，而黄金正是这一趋势的最大受益者。 从价格走势看，瑞银对今年年末金价的基准预测为45 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns driving the strategic status of metals [1] - The global base metals market is undergoing a structural reshaping of supply and demand dynamics, with strong and sustained demand from green industries such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power [1] - Supply constraints are becoming more rigid due to long-term investment shortages, declining resource grades, and extended project production cycles [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 0.5 million tons, reaching 44.25 million tons, with industry profitability exceeding 6,000 RMB per ton [2] - High aluminum prices are suppressing demand, leading to an increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventory by 39,000 tons [2] Group 3: Alumina Market - The alumina market continues to experience inventory accumulation, with weekly operating capacity at 96.25 million tons, an increase of 40 tons [3] - Inventory levels are at historical highs, with a weekly increase of 75,000 tons, and profit margins are negative, with losses expanding to -186 RMB per ton based on domestic ore prices [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions and production cuts at mines, with the copper concentrate processing fee declining to -46.53 USD per ton [4] - The operating rate of major copper rod enterprises increased to 57.47%, while global copper inventory rose to 1.0874 million tons, an increase of 77,800 tons week-on-week [4] Group 5: Zinc Market - The zinc market shows weak consumption with visible inventory accumulation, as the galvanizing operating rate recorded 53.48%, a decrease of 0.91% [5] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory remains stable at 118,400 tons, while LME inventory is at 106,500 tons, showing minimal change [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Fluctuations in tariff expectations [2]. - Copper: LME spot prices strengthen, and the price remains firm [2]. - Zinc: Range - bound trading [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2]. - Tin: Range - bound trading [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias; Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Box - shaped oscillation; Palladium: Following the range - bound trading [2]. - Nickel: Repeated statements from Indonesia disrupt sentiment, and nickel prices fluctuate widely; Stainless steel: The futures price is anchored to the contradictions at the ore end, and the rise of ferronickel supports the price center [2]. Summary by Related Categories Gold and Silver 1. Price and Trading Volume - Gold prices showed a slight decline during the day and a small increase at night. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,035.20 with a daily decline of 0.52% and a night - session closing price of 1035.98 with a 0.04% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - Silver prices also declined during the day and rose at night. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 22713 with a daily decline of 0.41% and a night - session closing price of 23089.00 with a 1.40% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day [4]. 2. ETF and Inventory - The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1, while the holdings of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 180. Gold and silver inventories showed different trends, with Comex gold inventories decreasing by 80,956 ounces and Shanghai silver inventories increasing by 9703 kilograms [4]. 3. Spread and Exchange Rate - Gold and silver spreads and exchange rates changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 remained unchanged, and the US dollar index rose by 0.28% [4]. Copper 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,180 with a daily increase of 0.41% and a night - session closing price of 101680 with a 0.49% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased, while the open interest of the London copper 3M electronic trading decreased slightly [8]. 2. Inventory and Spread - Shanghai copper inventories decreased by 7,762 tons, and London copper inventories increased by 3,850 tons. The LME copper premium widened, and the spot - to - futures spread and other spreads also changed [8]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic report shows that high - tech manufacturing leads, and GDP growth reaches the target. Trump's remarks on Greenland and related tariff threats, as well as Chile's Codelco's plan to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine [8][10]. Zinc 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24450 with a daily decline of 1.21%, and the closing price of the London zinc 3M electronic trading was 3207.5 with a 3.20% decline. Trading volume decreased significantly, and open interest showed different trends [11]. 2. Premium and Inventory - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc increased, the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased, and zinc inventories showed different trends, with Shanghai zinc inventories increasing by 224 tons and London zinc inventories decreasing by 1475 tons [11]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic achievements and the EU's plan to impose tariffs on US goods in response to Trump's tariff threats on European countries [12]. Lead 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17185 with a daily decline of 1.66%, and the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic trading was 2037.5 with a 2.81% decline. Trading volume and open interest decreased [15]. 2. Premium and Inventory - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead remained unchanged, and overseas lead inventories decreased by 2850 tons, which supported prices [15]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic data and Trump's remarks on Greenland and tariff threats [16]. Tin 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 389,500 with a daily decline of 3.88% and a night - session closing price of 397,040 with a 2.58% increase. The trading volume and open interest decreased [19]. 2. Inventory and Spread - Shanghai tin inventories decreased by 141 tons, and London tin inventories increased by 505 tons. The LME tin premium increased, and the spot - to - futures spread also changed [19]. 3. News - Germany restarts electric vehicle purchase subsidies, the EU holds an emergency summit to address Trump's "island - seizure" tariffs, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate takes measures to maintain economic and financial security [19][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 1. Price and Trading Volume - Aluminum prices oscillated with a bullish bias. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24090, and the trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Alumina prices continued to bottom - out, and the trading volume of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased significantly. The price of cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [23]. 2. Inventory and Premium - Aluminum inventories showed different trends, with domestic aluminum ingot social inventories increasing by 1.50 tons. The premium and spread of aluminum and alumina also changed [23]. 3. News - High - level political events such as the Japanese House of Representatives election and the release of the Fed's meeting minutes [25]. Platinum and Palladium 1. Price and Trading Volume - Platinum and palladium prices showed an upward trend. For example, the closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 615.10 with a 0.83% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased [28]. 2. ETF and Inventory - The holdings of platinum and palladium ETFs decreased. NYMEX platinum inventories increased by 100 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventories decreased by 3,888 ounces [28]. 3. Spread and Exchange Rate - Platinum and palladium spreads and exchange rates changed. The US dollar index decreased by 0.32% [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel 1. Price and Trading Volume - Nickel prices fluctuated widely. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 142,320. Stainless steel prices also changed, with the closing price of the stainless steel main contract being 14,305. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends [32]. 2. Industry Chain Data - The prices of electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and other products in the nickel industry chain changed, and the prices of stainless steel products also showed different trends [32]. 3. News - Indonesia's policies on nickel, such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses, revising the benchmark price formula, and adjusting production targets [32][33][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as long - positions, short - positions, or waiting and seeing based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Market performance shows London gold at $4600/oz. Fundamentals involve geopolitical and Fed - related news. Domestic gold ETF inflow is 0.8 tons. Suggested strategy is to go long as the price is rising steadily [2]. - Silver: London silver price is stable at $90/oz. There are inventory changes and speculation factors. It is recommended to participate with caution due to high speculation sentiment [2]. 3.2 Base Metals - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum contract price dropped by 1.85%. Supply capacity increased slightly, demand improved marginally. Short - term price may remain high - level volatile [3]. - Alumina: The price fell 1.36%. Supply is stable, demand from electrolytic aluminum is high. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The price decreased by 1.43%. Supply decreased in some areas, demand has reduction expectations. The price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200, and short positions can be considered at high prices [3][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price dropped significantly. Supply increased slightly in the short - term but may decline in January. Demand from battery materials is expected to decrease. The price is expected to correct with support at 120,000 [4]. - Polysilicon: The price increased by 3.14%. Supply decreased, demand from some downstream sectors declined. The market may shift from loose to tight balance [4]. 3.3 Black Industry - Rebar: The price dropped. Supply - demand is neutral - weak, with structural differences. It is recommended to hold short positions in the RB05 contract [5]. - Iron Ore: The price fell. Supply - demand is neutral. It is advisable to wait and see, with a reference range of 805 - 835 [6]. - Coking Coal: The price rose slightly. Supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short the JM05 contract [6]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Supply is loose in the near - term and large in the long - term. The US soybeans are seeking a bottom, and the domestic far - month contracts are under pressure [7]. - Corn: Futures prices are strong, spot prices are rising. Supply is not under pressure, and short - term prices are expected to be strong. The futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. - Oils: The market is volatile. Supply is in weak seasonal reduction, demand for exports improved. It is expected to be volatile, and mid - term attention should be paid to production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - Sugar: The price of the SR05 contract dropped. International and domestic sugar markets are under pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [7][8]. - Cotton: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. US cotton exports are good, Brazilian planting area decreased. It is recommended to buy at low prices with a reference range of 14400 - 14900 [8]. - Eggs: Futures prices rebounded, spot prices are stable. Supply is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. Futures prices are expected to be weak [8]. - Pigs: Futures prices are strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, spot prices rose. Supply pressure is small in the short - term, and prices are expected to be strong but may correct later [8]. 3.5 Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The contract price oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eases, demand is weak in the agricultural film season. Short - term oscillation, long - term long positions can be considered at low prices [10]. - PVC: The price dropped 0.4%. Supply is high, demand is weak seasonally. It is recommended to do reverse arbitrage [10][11]. - PTA: PX and PTA supply are high, demand is weak in the off - season. PX can be long - term long, and the 05 contract of PTA can be used to long the processing fee [11]. - Glass: The price rose 0.5%. Supply is decreasing, demand is weak. It is recommended to long glass and short soda ash [11]. - PP: The contract price dropped slightly. Supply pressure increases, demand is stable. Short - term oscillation, long - term short positions can be considered at high prices [11]. - MEG: Supply is high, demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Crude Oil: Prices fluctuated this week. Supply is high, demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Styrene: The contract price rose slightly. Supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, styrene inventory is normal. Short - term oscillation, long - term long positions of styrene or reverse arbitrage of pure benzene can be considered [12]. - Soda Ash: The price rose 1%. Supply is large, demand is weak. It is recommended to short or long glass and short soda ash [12].