Core Viewpoint - London base metals experienced a decline across the board on November 13, with significant drops in lead, tin, and nickel prices [1] Group 1: Price Movements - LME lead fell by 0.98%, closing at $2,075.00 per ton [1] - LME tin decreased by 0.89%, ending at $37,065.00 per ton [1] - LME nickel dropped by 0.65%, settling at $14,955.00 per ton [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Nomura expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, citing resilient employment indicators despite government shutdown impacts [1] - The firm believes that recent strong rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell supports the view that the Fed may pause rate cuts after two consecutive reductions [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - UBS analysts indicate that gold prices are in an upward trend, with expectations for a stable period before further increases [2] - Citi forecasts copper prices to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026, driven by a bullish outlook despite current weak physical demand [3] Group 3: Stock Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. stocks will underperform compared to emerging markets over the next decade, with a projected annual return of 6.5% for the S&P 500 [4] - Emerging markets are expected to yield a stronger annual return of 10.9%, driven by robust earnings growth in China and India [4] Group 4: Currency and Reserve Management - Standard Chartered notes a gradual reduction in global reserve managers' reliance on the U.S. dollar, with a shift towards a broader range of currencies [5] - The bank suggests that this diversification indicates a weakening structural demand for U.S. assets, although short-term pressure on the dollar remains limited [5] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that increased bond issuance in the U.S. and Europe will lead to higher risk premiums and steeper yield curves [6] - The bank forecasts that by the end of 2026, the yield on 10-year German bonds will reach 3%, while U.S. 10-year bonds will hit 4.5% [6] Group 6: Currency Outlook - ING analysts expect the dollar to decline next year due to lower hedging costs from anticipated Fed rate cuts, which may increase the hedging ratio for U.S. assets [7] - The euro is projected to rise to 1.22 by Q4 2026, supported by expectations of accelerated economic growth in the Eurozone [7] Group 7: Domestic Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlights the competitive advantage of the domestic energy storage industry, predicting significant growth in global energy storage installations by 2025 [8] - The firm recommends focusing on leading companies in the energy storage supply chain, particularly in battery cells and system integration [8] Group 8: Pharmaceutical Sector - CITIC Securities continues to favor the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting investment in companies driven by innovation and international expansion [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in core components and the impact of new policies on the sector [9] Group 9: New Materials Sector - CITIC Securities identifies potential trading opportunities in the new materials sector, particularly in AI materials and hydrogen energy, driven by policy and performance catalysts [10] - The firm encourages active investment in high-growth industries and quality segments within the new materials space [10] Group 10: Banking Sector Performance - Galaxy Securities notes that banks are maintaining strong mid-term dividend payouts, with stable earnings supported by net interest income improvements [11] - The report highlights the positive impact of policy measures on credit structure optimization and the long-term transformation of the banking industry [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views [2][5]. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows a rising trend due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, while silver hits a new high. Both have a trend strength of 1 [2][6]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices rise as market sentiment improves; zinc shows minor fluctuations; lead prices are supported by decreasing overseas inventories; tin prices exceed 300,000 yuan; aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish; nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to high inventory and risks in Indonesia; stainless steel lacks upward momentum [2][10][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Iron ore prices decline from high levels due to inventory accumulation; coke follows the downward trend; coking coal's valuation drops due to fluctuating supply expectations; LPG has limited demand improvement and high - valued futures; PTA and p - xylene are in a high - level oscillation; MEG is bearish due to large supply pressure [2][20][38]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil's rebound is limited, and there is a risk of a second dip; soybean oil spreads continue to widen; corn is short - term bullish; sugar requires attention on India's sugar - crushing situation; cotton lacks upward drivers and its price slightly drops [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's Shanghai futures contract 2512 closed at 945.76 yuan with a daily decline of 0.33%, and the overnight session closed at 963.32 yuan with a 1.78% increase. Silver's Shanghai futures contract 2512 closed at 12,073 yuan with a 1.65% increase, and the overnight session closed at 12,508 yuan with a 4.81% increase. The trend strength for both is 1 [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,840 yuan with a 0.24% increase, and the overnight session closed at 87,430 yuan with a 0.68% increase. The trend strength is 1 [10]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,680 yuan with a 0.02% increase. The trend strength is 0 [13]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,660 yuan with a 1.26% increase. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 0 [16]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 292,440 yuan with a 1.48% increase. The price has exceeded 300,000 yuan. The trend strength is 1 [19]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 1 for aluminum, 0 for alumina, and 1 for aluminum alloy [23]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to high inventory and risks in Indonesia, and stainless steel lacks upward drivers. The trend strengths are 0 for both [25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Iron Ore**: The futures price closed at 774 yuan with a 1.44% increase. Due to inventory accumulation, the price has declined from high levels. The trend strength is 0 [38]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke follows the downward trend, and coking coal's valuation drops due to fluctuating supply expectations. The trend strengths are - 1 for both [50]. - **LPG, PTA, p - Xylene, and MEG**: LPG has limited demand improvement and high - valued futures; PTA and p - xylene are in a high - level oscillation; MEG is bearish due to large supply pressure [2][56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil's rebound is limited, and there is a risk of a second dip; soybean oil spreads continue to widen [5]. - **Corn, Sugar, and Cotton**: Corn is short - term bullish; sugar requires attention on India's sugar - crushing situation; cotton lacks upward drivers and its price slightly drops [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of base metals are rising due to the anticipated reopening of the U.S. federal government and expectations of further interest rate cuts this year [1] Summary by Category Price Movements - Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange increased by 1.1% to $10,959 per metric ton [1] - Aluminum futures rose by 0.8% to $2,901 per ton [1] Analyst Predictions - Analysts at Deutsche Bank raised their year-end forecast for copper from $9,600 per ton to $10,500 per ton [1] - The aluminum price forecast was adjusted from $2,600 per ton to $2,900 per ton [1] Market Commentary - The recent price increases are seen as a response to the sharp rise in prices over the past few weeks [1] - Despite the upward trend, analysts caution that the rise in copper prices may be premature given the favorable supply conditions, suggesting a potential for slight corrections in the short term [1]

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in the commodity market, particularly oil and gold prices, are driven by various factors including supply concerns and economic indicators [1] Oil Market - WTI crude oil has seen a three-day increase, currently around $61, driven by strong refined fuel prices, concerns over potential supply issues due to U.S. sanctions on Russian energy, and technical buying as it tested the $60 mark without breaking [3] - Despite the recent price increase, concerns about oversupply remain, with upcoming OPEC and IEA reports expected to influence future price movements [3] Gold Market - Gold prices have increased but the growth rate has slowed, influenced by the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, which reduces gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, and weak employment data indicating economic softness [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could exceed $5,000 next year due to continued purchases by emerging market central banks, but the long-term investment rationale for gold remains strong as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty [4] Base Metals - Copper prices have risen slightly, with LME copper at approximately $10,827 per ton, influenced by a 0.2% drop in the U.S. dollar index, which typically boosts dollar-denominated metal prices [5] - The performance of base metals is closely tied to the pace of global economic recovery, which is currently unstable, leading to expected volatility in metal prices [5] Investment Strategy - For oil, investors are advised to wait for a pullback to key support levels before considering positions, especially in light of the upcoming OPEC and IEA reports [5] - In gold, a gradual accumulation strategy is recommended, particularly if economic data continues to show weakness or geopolitical tensions arise [5] - For base metals, focus should be on those linked to renewable energy and manufacturing recovery, as clearer signals of global economic recovery are needed before making long-term investments [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous metals industry and its outlook for 2026, indicating a potential bull market driven by monetary policy, demand, and supply dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, which, combined with a strengthening trend of de-dollarization, will enhance global liquidity and increase demand for physical assets like non-ferrous metals [1]. Demand Dynamics - The adjustment of U.S. tariff policies is reshaping global supply chains, leading to accelerated demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly from emerging industries such as AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing [1]. - The report highlights the importance of strategic resource stockpiling due to rising geopolitical risks, which is expected to further boost demand [1]. Supply Challenges - The non-ferrous mining sector is facing low supply elasticity due to insufficient capital expenditure over the past decade, which is expected to continue affecting supply [1]. - Resource-rich countries are increasingly controlling strategic minerals, adding uncertainty to supply chains [1]. Specific Metal Insights Precious Metals - A decline in real interest rates and de-dollarization are expected to drive gold prices higher, with silver also benefiting from this trend [2]. - The report anticipates strong performance for base metals like copper, aluminum, and tin due to emerging demand and supply constraints [2]. Copper - The copper market is expected to face a supply shortage, with significant disruptions from natural disasters and safety incidents affecting production [9][10]. - Demand from clean energy and global grid investments is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for copper used in clean energy from 2024 to 2026 [10]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is poised for a bull market, driven by improving demand from traditional sectors and new energy vehicles [12][14]. - Supply constraints are expected to persist, with domestic production reaching capacity limits [12]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to rise due to increased demand from the semiconductor industry and supply disruptions from illegal mining crackdowns in Indonesia [15][23]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are projected to remain bullish due to export quota management in the Democratic Republic of Congo and increasing demand from high-performance batteries [17][18]. Lithium - The lithium market is expected to experience a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, despite short-term demand support from seasonal peaks [19][20]. Uranium - Uranium prices are recovering due to limited supply and increased strategic interest from funds, with a focus on high-quality resources in Kazakhstan [21][22]. Tungsten - The tungsten market is characterized by tight supply and strong demand growth, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure projects [23][25]. Rare Earth Elements - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow significantly due to the rise of electric vehicles and high-performance magnets, with supply constraints pushing prices higher [26][27]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of non-ferrous metals in the context of global economic shifts and the need for investors to focus on companies with strong cash flow, resource potential, and acquisition capabilities [2][11][12]. - Risks such as potential obstacles to Federal Reserve rate cuts, lower-than-expected demand, and supply disruptions are highlighted as critical factors that could impact the market [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with a recommendation to hold positions and wait for the next upward wave. Gold is suggested to be bought around $3950 per ounce, as the market may face a 2-3 month adjustment period due to previous rapid price increases [3] - For copper, supply disruptions are expected to elevate price levels, with a recommendation to buy on dips as the market adjusts. The report notes a 1.80% decline in LME copper prices this week, but anticipates a tightening supply-demand situation in 2026 [4] - The aluminum sector is transitioning from peak to off-peak demand, with a reported 61.6% operating rate among domestic processing enterprises. Despite a slight decrease in demand, long-term price stability is expected due to overseas electricity supply risks [4] - Tungsten prices have seen a slight increase due to ongoing supply constraints, with a stable production forecast from key provinces [5] - Lithium prices are expected to rise due to optimistic demand forecasts driven by AI and energy storage needs, with significant growth anticipated in the coming months [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7592.23, with a weekly high of 7807.9 and a low of 4280.14 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper down by 1.80%, aluminum down by 0.90%, zinc up by 0.54%, and lead up by 0.99%. Precious metals experienced a slight decline, with COMEX gold down by 0.14% and silver down by 0.05% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventories increased by 18,668 tons, while aluminum inventories decreased by 9,448 tons. Zinc inventories rose by 1,094 tons, and lead inventories decreased by 16,342 tons [31][33]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report indicates that macroeconomic factors are causing fluctuations in precious metal prices, with gold and silver experiencing mixed movements. The market sentiment remains cautious due to various uncertainties, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and ongoing trade tensions [2][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have recently declined, with the current price at 85,920 CNY/ton. The market is experiencing weak demand, and while there is a high inventory level, the long-term demand for copper is expected to grow due to the global energy transition [1][13]. - Aluminum prices have increased, with the current price at 21,555 CNY/ton. The supply remains stable, but demand has decreased slightly. The cost of alumina has also dropped, impacting overall profitability [1][22][23]. - Precious metals are under pressure due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with gold averaging 913.53 CNY/g and silver at 11,329 CNY/kg. The market is expected to remain volatile in the near term [2][27]. 2. Minor Metals - Antimony prices have slightly decreased, with the market showing signs of cautious trading. The demand from downstream sectors is stable, but the overall market remains under pressure from high costs [3][44]. - The rare earth sector is seeing a pause in export controls, which is expected to boost exports and stabilize prices. The price of light rare earths has increased by 4.5% to 555,000 CNY/ton [4][67]. 3. Market Predictions - For copper, the price is expected to fluctuate between 84,500 and 86,500 CNY/ton in the short term, with a potential for upward movement due to improved demand from infrastructure projects [14]. - Aluminum prices are predicted to remain high, with a trading range of 20,800 to 21,700 CNY/ton, supported by positive macroeconomic sentiment [24]. - Gold and silver prices are anticipated to continue their volatile trend, with gold expected to trade between 890 and 940 CNY/g and silver between 10,800 and 11,800 CNY/kg [28][29].

Core Insights - The majority of base metals in London experienced price increases on November 7, with LME zinc rising by 0.69% to $3,068.00 per ton, marking a weekly increase of 0.41% [1] - LME lead saw a rise of 0.66% to $2,045.00 per ton, with a cumulative weekly increase of 1.39% [1] - LME aluminum increased by 0.54% to $2,860.00 per ton, but recorded a weekly decline of 0.83% [1] - LME copper rose slightly by 0.12% to $10,695.00 per ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 1.77% [1] - LME nickel experienced a minimal increase of 0.01% to $15,040.00 per ton, with a weekly drop of 1.22% [1] - LME tin fell by 0.08% to $35,815.00 per ton, showing a weekly decline of 0.75% [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.84% at 46,912.3 points, the S&P 500 down 1.12% at 6,720.32 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.9% at 23,053.99 points [1] - Major tech stocks fell, with Nvidia and Tesla dropping over 3%, Intel, Amazon, and Meta down over 2%, and Microsoft down over 1% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Xiaoma Zhixing down over 8%, Zai Ding Pharmaceutical down over 6%, and NIO down over 1%, while XPeng Motors rose over 9% and Baidu up over 3% [1] European Market - European stock indices also closed lower, with Germany's DAX down 1.29% at 23,740.38 points, France's CAC40 down 1.36% at 7,964.77 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.42% at 9,735.78 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.20% at $3,984.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.37% at $47.85 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil futures fell slightly, with the main contract down 0.12% at $59.53 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.08% at $63.47 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.45% to 99.70, while the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar by 104 basis points to 7.1209 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 7.20 basis points to 3.553% and the 10-year yield down 7.60 basis points to 4.083% [1] - European bond yields also declined, with the UK 10-year yield down 2.9 basis points to 4.432% and Germany's 10-year yield down 2.3 basis points to 2.648% [1]