美元加码施压 金价续显韧性 基金做空原油的能量见底 2025年07月30日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周二国际现货金价以3316.24美元开盘，最高上试3333.89美元，最低下探3307.79美元，报收3326.38美元，上涨11.60美元，涨幅0.35%，振幅0.79%，日K 线呈调整抵抗小阳线。 周二美元指数以98.64点开盘，最高上试99.13点，最低下探98.57点，报收98.90点，上涨250点，涨幅0.25%，振幅0.57%，日K线呈震荡上行小阳线，创五 周新高。 周二Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6995.28点开盘，最高上试7046.05点，最低下探6943.15点，报收7023.70点，上涨32.77点，涨幅0.47%，振幅1.47，日 K线呈回调抵抗小阳线。 上半图（小图1、2、3）信息显示，伴随本周美元指数再度转强，其KD、RSI指标相较于K线形态超跌之后的"底背离"信号愈发清晰：如A、B位置所示， A位置美元指数阶段低位为97.71点，B位置阶段低位为96.36点，明显低于A位置。但B位置KD、RSI指标值远高于A位置，进而 ...

2025年07月27日 • 研究员-马芸 • mayun@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：18682466799 • 资格证号： Z0018708 目录 01 周度回顾 本周观点 02 期货研究报告 | 商品研究 金属短期承压不改上行方向 ——20250727招商期货基本金属铜锡周报 品种分析：铜锡 03 2 01 周度回顾 3 周度回顾 | | | 伦铜指数 | 伦铝指数 | 伦锌指数 | 伦铅指数 | 伦镍指数 | 伦锡指数 | | 沪铜指数 | 沪铝指数 | | 沪锌指数 | 沪铅指数 | 沪镍指数 | 沪锡指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 过去一年 | | 8.5% | 17.1% | 7.2% | -2.0% | -4.1% | 16.1% | 过去一年 | 7.3% | 7.7% | | -0.1% | -6.1% | -5.1% | 8.8% | | 过去一月 | | 0.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | ...

2025年07月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，施压价格 | 4 | | 锌：震荡走弱 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：情绪回落 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观预期定方向，基本面限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，现实面仍有待修复 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 29 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：突破上行 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand imbalance is catalyzing a bull market for minor metals, with prices for tungsten, cobalt, and rare earths expected to continue rising [4] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise in the second half of the year due to downstream enterprises beginning to replenish inventory and the ongoing export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] - Tungsten prices have increased by 3.30% this week, with black tungsten concentrate prices nearing 190,000 yuan/ton, a 25.33% increase from May's low [5] - The demand for tungsten is bolstered by a significant increase in military orders, with the Ministry of Defense announcing a total of 978 billion yuan in new military orders for the 2025 fiscal year, a 16.8% year-on-year increase [5] - Lithium prices have surged due to optimistic supply expectations, with recommendations to buy on dips as prices may recover to 80,000-90,000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.9%, ranking second among sectors [15] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals: LME copper decreased by 1.03%, aluminum by 0.79%, zinc by 0.86%, lead increased by 0.30%, and tin by 0.65% [20] - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell by 3.06%, silver by 3.37%, while nickel decreased by 0.39% and cobalt increased by 0.82% [20] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventory changes: copper decreased by 895 tons, aluminum increased by 6,166 tons, zinc increased by 374 tons, and lead increased by 3,675 tons [27]

Group 1 - The central government has initiated measures to prevent "involution" and unhealthy competition, with relevant ministries actively implementing "anti-involution" policies [1][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have released a draft amendment to the Price Law, which includes ten articles focusing on government pricing, standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, and legal responsibilities for price violations [3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need to resist "involution" competition and promote the restructuring and optimization of state-owned capital [3] Group 2 - On July 24, the basic metals index in the Wind China industry index rose by 3.94%, leading the industry indices, and has accelerated since the end of June [5] - The steel index also saw a significant increase of 2.43%, with substantial growth since July 1 [5] - The construction materials index experienced a surge following the commencement of the Yaxi Hydropower Super Project, continuing a trend of steady increases [9]

【导读】四部委出台相关"反内卷"举措 中国基金报记者 卢鸰 在中央明确要求防止"内卷式"恶性竞争之后，相关部委 积极 行动，出台相关"反内卷"举措。 据公告披露，该修正草案共10条，主要涉及三方面内容，包括完善政府定价相关内容、进一 步明确不正当价格行为认定标准、健全价格违法行为法律责任。 在进一步明确不正当价格行为认定标准方面，一是完善低价倾销的认定标准，规范市场价格 秩序，治理"内卷式"竞争；二是完善价格串通、哄抬价格、价格歧视等不正当价格行为认定 标准。 7月24日，国家发改委、国家市场监管总局发布关于《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求 意见稿）》公开征求意见的公告，完善了低价倾销的认定标准，以规范市场价格秩序、治 理"内卷式"竞争；国资委在京举办地方国资委负责人研讨班，要求带头抵制"内卷式"竞争， 加强重组整合；国家医保局副局长施子海表示，第11批集采不再以简单的最低价作为参考， 且报价最低企业要公开说明报价的合理性，并承诺不低于成本报价。 二级市场上，7月24日，在Wind中国行业指数中，基本金属指数以3.94%的涨幅位居行业指 数榜首，且6月底以来加速上行；钢铁指数也大涨2.43%，7月1日以来 ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 2025年07月22日 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：供需矛盾预期，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 9 | | 铝：震荡上行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：短期情绪偏强 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵 ...

值得注意的是，虽然电子等台湾地区外销主力产业4-5月份对美订单大幅增长，但这与美国厂商"提前备 货"有关，并不代表无风险。调查报告发现，台湾地区高科技产业中有逾四成厂商预估未来营收将明显 下滑，"显示美国关税政策若进一步延伸至半导体及关键零组件，台湾地区整体出口结构恐将面临深层 冲击"。 调查报告同时结合多场座谈与访谈，归纳出台湾地区中小企业当前面临的五大结构性挑战，包括汇率剧 烈波动、工业电价3年累计涨幅66%、AI与绿色转型门槛、缺工与人才排挤，还有当局协助政策信息落 差等。"民间版冲击影响评估"提出五大政策建议，分别为稳定汇率、检讨能源政策、扩大稳定就业措施 与劳工保障、设立AI转型专责单位、建立贸易协助单一窗口。管中闵还提醒说，若美国经济衰退1%， 台湾地区经济衰退约0.29%，但若大陆经济衰退1%，台湾地区最高恐衰退0.39%，"因此关税战对大陆的 影响也要注意"。学者林祖嘉称，这是初步调查，未来还要思考如果"对等关税"超过30%可能带来的冲 击，以及新台币升值对产业的影响。 美国政府8月1日的"关税大限"将至，台"经济部长"郭智辉21日称"目前还在谈判中"，台"行政院副院 长"郑丽君将第4次赴美谈 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and move upward [2][4]. - The good US economic data supports the copper price [2][9]. - Zinc is expected to operate within a range [2][13]. - The downside of lead may be limited [2][15]. - The price of tin is weakening [2][18]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the marginal changes in inventory; alumina is expected to be volatile and bullish; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel is affected by news - related sentiment, and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to move in a volatile manner due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of沪金2510 was 776.28 with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the closing price of沪银2510 was 9166 with a daily increase of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts also changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's government is expected to visit the Fed regarding decoration issues. The next - likely Fed chairman, Waller, suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1 [7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,850 with a daily decline of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed, and the inventory of沪铜 decreased by 8,103 tons [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US retail sales data was strong, and the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased. China's imports of copper concentrates and unwrought copper and copper products in June showed different trends [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪锌主力 was 22120 with a daily increase of 0.41%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [13]. - **News**: Potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪铅主力 was 16845 with a daily decline of 0.30%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [15]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪锡主力合约 was 261,920 with a daily decline of 0.77%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar macro - level news as other metals, such as Fed - related news and US economic data [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the沪铝主力合约 was 20415. For alumina, the closing price of the沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3089. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's independence is a "myth", and the US and India are close to reaching a trade agreement [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪镍主力 was 119,880, and the closing price of the不锈钢主力 was 12,730. The trading volume, positions, and relevant prices in the industrial chain changed [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are issues such as potential nickel export restrictions from Canada, the start of trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, and the resumption of production of a nickel smelter in Indonesia [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [30].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The basic metals sector is under pressure, with tin and lead prices dropping by 3.15% and 2.10% respectively, indicating weak performance in the black series commodities, where coking coal and coke fell by 2.20% and 1.91% respectively [1] - The agricultural products market showed mixed results, with major indices experiencing slight declines, such as the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.02% to 3339.93 points [1] Real Estate Market Insights - A report from Goldman Sachs highlighted that the real estate market in the 21st domestic state is stabilizing, with notable performance in export-dependent cities. The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes increased by 9% and 3% respectively on a month-over-month basis [2][3] - The central government has launched a city renewal plan, including old community renovations and fiscal support, aimed at boosting market confidence. Despite a slight decrease of 1% in new home sales area, first-tier and mid-west cities continue to lead in performance [2] Construction Sector Challenges - Predictions indicate a year-over-year decline of approximately 20% and 10% in new construction and completion areas, reflecting ongoing supply-side pressures in the industry [3] - The report emphasizes the structural advantages of export-oriented cities and the long-term impact of policy support, although the market still faces challenges in supply-demand adjustments [3] Global Economic Context - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, marking the sixth consecutive cut since August 2024, with a cumulative reduction of 225 basis points [3] - The RBNZ forecasts a further decline in cash rates to 2.92% by Q4 2025 and 2.85% by Q1 2026, indicating a deeper easing cycle amid growing concerns over economic prospects [3] U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing increased risk perception, with the 20-year Treasury bond auction on May 21 facing weak demand, resulting in a high yield of 5.047%, the second-highest on record [4] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating signifies a loss of the highest credit rating by all three major rating agencies, amplifying market risk expectations [4] Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Despite declines in U.S. equities and bonds, a report from Japan suggesting a potential reduction in long-term bond issuance has alleviated some market anxiety, potentially benefiting U.S. Treasury markets [5] - The global bond market is undergoing significant changes, with increased risks associated with traditionally safe U.S. Treasuries, leading investors to consider assets in other countries [6] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with the EU condemning Israeli military actions in Gaza, and discussions around defense systems involving Canada and the U.S. [6]