每经记者｜张怀水 每经编辑｜陈旭 受新冠肺炎疫情影响，2月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）明显回落，环比大幅下降14.3个百分 点，降幅明显。 2月29日，国家统计局公布最新数据，2020年2月份，受疫情影响，中国制造业PMI为35.7%。从企业规 模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为36.3%、35.5%和34.1%，比上月下降14.1、14.6和14.5个百分点。从 分类指数看，构成制造业PMI的五大分项指数均位于临界点之下。 作为反映经济变化趋势的重要指标，2月制造业PMI下跌明显，分项指标全线下挫，这反映出什么经济 现象？背后的原因有哪些？未来PMI指数回弹的可能性有多大？ 由此可见，五大分项指数均处于大幅回落状态。 除了制造业以外，2月份非制造业PMI的降幅更大。 据统计，2020年2月份，非制造业商务活动指数为29.6%，比上月下降24.5个百分点，表明受疫情冲击， 非制造业经济总体回落明显。 从行业大类看，仅有货币金融服务、资本市场服务商务活动指数保持在扩张区间，业务总量继续增长； 电信广播电视和卫星传输服务、互联网软件信息技术服务商务活动指数虽位于收缩区间，但明显高于服 务业总体。建筑业商务活 ...

11月17日，游客在日本东京的一家餐厅用餐。 至收盘时，日经股指下跌1198.06点，收于48625.88点；东证股指下跌1.84点，收于3297.73点。 从板块来看，东京证券交易所33个行业板块多数上涨，房地产业、陆地运输业、建筑业等板块涨幅靠前，有色金属、机械、电气产品等板块下 跌。 日本东京股市两大股指21日下跌。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘大跌2.40%，东京证券交易所股票价格指数微跌0.06%。 受隔夜纽约股市三大股指全面下跌、纳斯达克股指重挫超2%拖累，东京股市两大股指21日跳空低开。日经股指低开570多点，其后继续大跌， 全天低位徘徊，午盘时段一度下跌1300多点。当天，东京电子收盘下跌7%，软银集团下跌10.9%，爱德万测试跌幅超过12%。 （新华社） ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data for September 2025 exceeded expectations, indicating a robust job market. The non-farm employment increased by 119,000, surpassing the forecast of 50,000. The service sector added 87,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector rebounded with an increase of 10,000 jobs after a previous decline [5][6]. Employment Data Summary - The September non-farm employment figures showed a significant increase, with the service sector contributing 87,000 jobs and the goods-producing sector recovering to add 10,000 jobs. This is a notable improvement from previous figures [5][6]. - The construction industry saw an increase of 19,000 jobs, attributed to a decline in mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve's decision to restart rate cuts [6]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.4%, up from 62.3%, indicating a recovery in employment willingness among the youth. However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4% due to a rise in the number of unemployed individuals by 219,000 [8]. - The data revealed a mixed picture of unemployment, with temporary unemployment decreasing by 53,000, while permanent unemployment increased by 98,000, suggesting ongoing layoffs in certain sectors [8]. Federal Reserve Implications - Given the stronger-than-expected non-farm data and the postponement of employment data for October and November, the Federal Reserve may adopt a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts, potentially delaying any rate reductions until after the December meeting [5][8]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in December 2025 stand at 39.1%, with further cuts anticipated in January, April, and July 2026, with probabilities of 50.2%, 35.7%, and 31.9% respectively [8].

Overall Overview - The number and quality of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China have significantly improved, with 63.487 million registered SMEs as of September 2025, contributing over 60% of GDP, 70% of technological innovation, and 80% of urban employment [13][14][16] - The average annual growth rates for the value added, operating income, and total profit of large-scale SMEs during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are 6.4%, 7.4%, and 5.4%, respectively, all exceeding those of large enterprises [13][14] Structural Distribution Regional Distribution - SMEs in eastern China account for 54.2% of the total, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Henan provinces collectively representing 40.9% [24][26] Industry Distribution - The wholesale and retail industry has the highest concentration of SMEs, accounting for over 30%, followed by leasing and business services, and scientific research and technical services, each exceeding 10% [27] Development Status Sustained Growth - In the first eight months of 2025, the value added of large-scale industrial SMEs increased by 7.6% year-on-year, with a continuous expansion of export indices for 17 months [2][36] Innovation Capacity - Over 178,000 SMEs hold patents, with a 55.1% industrialization rate for invention patents in 2024, and 35,000 new enterprises in artificial intelligence-related fields [2][17] Market Competitiveness - SMEs accounted for 99.3% of project-winning enterprises in 2024, with over 5,780 financing events totaling approximately 750.8 billion yuan, marking a 7.3% and 13.1% increase from 2023 [19][20] Employment Contribution - 71.8% of surveyed university students consider employment in SMEs, highlighting their role as a significant employment channel [20] Future Outlook - Continuous optimization of the business environment, enhanced cultivation systems, and deep integration of digital technologies will provide more opportunities for SMEs, contributing to economic and social development [2][36]

Employment Data - In September 2025, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 50,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, against an expectation of 4.3%[2] Job Sector Analysis - The education and health services sectors contributed 59,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality added 47,000 jobs, together accounting for 89.1% of the total job growth[3] - The manufacturing sector saw a slight improvement, with a job loss of only 6,000 compared to a loss of 15,000 in the previous month[2] Economic Implications - The increase in unemployment rate and the reliance on part-time jobs in key sectors suggest that the job market may not be as strong as the headline figures indicate[3] - The market's focus has shifted from job creation to the rising unemployment rate, with a slight increase in the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December to 39.1%[5] Future Projections - The Federal Reserve may only have room for one 25 basis point rate cut before the chairmanship change in May 2026, as the current benchmark rate is approximately 40 basis points above neutral levels[6][3] - The overall labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%, with a notable decline in immigrant labor supply[3] Wage Growth Concerns - Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.2% in September from 0.4% in August, particularly in the service sector, raising concerns about purchasing power amid rising inflation[3]

0:00 / 2:24 近年来，围绕安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的好房子建设目标，我国建筑业领域的企业、单位加速推进科技攻关，已经形成一批具备高科技含 量的技术、产品、设备等成果。 "十五五"规划建议提出，推动房地产高质量发展，明确"优化保障性住房供给""因城施策增加改善性住房供给""建设安全舒适绿色智慧的'好 房子'，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动"等举措。 这是7月21日拍摄的南宁市鸡村城中村改造项目建设现场（无人机照片）。新华社记者 黄孝邦 摄 未来，要牢牢抓住"安居"这个人民群众幸福生活的基点，加快完善住房供应体系，以新供给满足和创造新需求，进一步改善人民群众的住 房条件。 11月6日，讲解员（右）在住博会上向观众介绍展出的节能建筑。新华社记者 潘旭 摄 编导：房宽 记者：邓楠 摄像：石欢、王俊、吕果毅 新华社音视频部制作 10月31日，观众在2025国际（武汉）智能建造产业博览会现场参观。新华社记者 伍志尊 摄 "十五五"规划建议将"房地产高质量发展"置于"加大保障和改善民生力度"框架下，进一步凸显了房地产行业的居住属性和民生定位。 11月6日，参观者在住博会上了解绿色低碳好房子的展出内容。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

Employment Data - In September, non-farm employment increased by 119,000, but the previous values for July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000[4] - The education, healthcare, and leisure/hospitality sectors were the main contributors to job growth, with government and construction sectors seeing the largest increases of 44,000 and 33,000 jobs respectively[5] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, marking the highest level since the end of 2021, primarily due to an increase in labor force participation[12] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings in September saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.8%[15] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was observed in the business services and financial sectors, at 4.8% and 4.5% respectively[15] - Wage growth has been declining since November 2024, indicating a decrease in workers' bargaining power[15] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor supply is exceeding demand, with the labor demand gap widening to -157,000 in August, indicating more unemployed individuals than job vacancies[12] - The U6 unemployment rate slightly decreased to 8%, reflecting stabilization in the marginal labor market[12] - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased to 40%, although this is a significant drop from the previous week[19] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[22]

2025年以来，合肥高新区坚决贯彻落实安徽省、合肥市经济工作决策部署，牢牢把握高质量发展首要任 务，聚焦"科创策源地、产业先导区、品质主城区"建设目标，持续深化重点领域改革和体制机制创新， 不断健全经济运行、招商引资和项目推进体系，全力推动经济回升向好、实现质效双升。 科创策源地：平台集聚成势，创新生态持续优化 高新区高标准建设科大硅谷核心区，加快打造具有全国影响力的原始创新策源地。强化量子、深空等国 家重大创新平台支撑，提升22家新型研发机构运行效能，推动科技与产业深度融合。依托"高新人才 码"等精准服务举措，持续优化人才发展环境。 （数据来源：合肥高新技术产业开发区党政办） （文章来源：经济日报） 产业先导区：重大项目引领，主导产业提质增效 聚焦主导产业集群发展，坚持"招大引强"与"育小扶优"并重，持续优化招商体制机制，深化科技招商、 场景招商和产业链招商。今年1月至10月，新签约重点项目192个、总投资690亿元，晶镁半导体、芯合 半导体、中国邮政等一批超50亿元重大项目落地。依托产业推进周例会机制，高效协调解决项目问题， 推动阳光电源储能系统、凯赛生物等36个重大产业项目新开工，总投资超300亿元。 ...

中美新老经济分化加剧，债牛趋势更为确定 20251119 2025 年各类资产表现良好，但国内债券市场表现较弱，不宜简单外推 至 2026 年，需关注市场拐点和结构性变化，而非仅依赖过去一年的表 现进行预测。 中美经济呈现新老经济加速分化特征，美国面临"三高"问题，传统企 业成本压力大，消费驱动型经济面临就业和消费信心挑战，AI 发展集中 于少数头部企业，对 GDP 和就业拉动效果有限。 中国股市主要反映新经济增长，但占比仍较低，传统经济放缓，房地产 市场加速下滑，对整体投资增速产生负面影响，2025 年中国首次出现 投资增速不增长。 新经济发展主要体现在制造业投资上，但新老经济分化明显，新兴产业 用电量高，传统建筑业下降。股市与债市并非完全对立，新经济带动股 市，债券市场关注传统产业，两者可共存。 全球股票估值处于历史高位，风险溢价偏高，但未达到互联网泡沫时期 极端水平。黄金与其他大类资产定价存在矛盾，反映市场对经济前景的 不确定性和分裂状态。 Q&A 在展望 2026 年经济时，应该避免哪些常见的误区？ 展望 2026 年经济时，应避免线性外推，即不能简单地基于 2025 年的情况直 接推断 2026 年 ...