Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the deterioration of US-Canada relations following the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, marking the beginning of a "de-Americanization" process among Western nations [1][16] - The conflict was ignited by the US imposing tariffs on Canadian goods, with plans to escalate these tariffs by the end of 2024, targeting various sectors including automobiles and dairy products [2][5] - Canada responded assertively by producing a $7.5 million promotional video that critiques US tariff policies, emphasizing the long-term damage to US interests [4][5] Group 2 - The promotional video utilized a speech by former President Reagan, arguing that while tariffs may have short-term effectiveness, they ultimately harm the US economy [4] - In response to the video, Trump accused Canada of attempting to interfere with US court decisions and announced the termination of trade negotiations, further escalating tensions [5][9] - The underlying tensions between the US and Canada have historical roots, with Canada feeling disrespected by Trump's actions and rhetoric, which undermined their long-standing alliance [7][16] Group 3 - Following the breakdown in relations, Canada initiated a "de-Americanization" strategy, seeking to strengthen ties with Asian economies and reduce reliance on the US market [11][14] - Canada signed a free trade agreement with Indonesia and established preliminary cooperation agreements with the UAE, EU, and Germany in various sectors [13] - The Canadian government aims to double its exports to non-US markets over the next decade, indicating a strategic shift in trade policy [14] Group 4 - The article suggests that the root cause of the rift is the US's trade protectionism and hegemonic mindset, which has strained relationships with allies [16] - While Canada is attempting to reduce its dependence on the US, challenges remain, particularly in military security, where reliance on the US is deeply entrenched [17] - Canada's assertive stance against the US may influence the foreign policies of other Western nations, highlighting the need for diversified international partnerships [18]

Report Overview - Date: November 5, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to experience weak oscillations due to sector sentiment [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations influenced by sector sentiment and supply - demand dynamics [2][11] - Coke and coking coal are predicted to fluctuate at high levels [2][14] - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][16] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 775.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.89%. The positions increased by 12,824 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types decreased by 2 yuan/ton, except for domestic ores which remained unchanged. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 futures were 3,044 yuan/ton and 3,265 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan (-1.42%) and 34 yuan (-1.03%) respectively. Spot prices in major cities decreased. The basis increased, and some spreads changed [7] - **News**: In mid - October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 0.9%, pig iron by 1.3%, and steel increased by 0.8%. On October 30, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed certain changes. Five departments supported commercial real estate REITs issuance. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the steel industry. In September, China's steel exports increased while imports also rose slightly [8][9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The basis and various spreads changed [11] - **News**: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the centralized cancellation date of ferrosilicon and urea in February 2026. There were price quotes and electricity price changes in the ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon markets. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced [11][12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. Some spot prices of coking coal increased, while others remained unchanged. Coke spot prices were mostly stable. The basis and spreads changed [14] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [15] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different degrees of decline. Trading volumes and positions also changed significantly. Spot prices of most log types were stable, with a small number showing slight decreases [17] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded after opening low. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips when prices fall to around 8,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of November contracts [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are oscillating downward. In November, the supply pressure decreases, but the demand also declines. The market is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures can be bought on dips when prices return to the lower end of the range. Options can sell put options around 50,000 to earn premiums. For the equity side, buy photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks. Also, pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of November contracts [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weakly oscillating, with low demand and obvious oversupply. The market is bearish in the long - term. Consider short - selling on rebounds. For glass, there is a short - term emotional impact on the market, and mid - to long - term supply pressure remains. In November, there is still a demand expectation during the peak season. Pay attention to the demand performance after price cuts. Look for short - term long opportunities on rebounds [4]. Logs - Log futures prices are oscillating weakly. Although the supply of arrivals is increasing, downstream orders are insufficient, and the market is under pressure. However, the inverted price between domestic and foreign markets provides cost support. The futures market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [5]. Natural Rubber - In the short term, the cost side strongly supports rubber prices due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. In the long term, there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand is weakening, and dark - colored rubber has shown an inflection point in inventory accumulation. If raw material supply increases smoothly, rubber prices may decline further, with a possible range of 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.43%. The basis decreased by 20.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 8.00% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 2.33%, 2512 - 2601 decreased by 16.67%, 2602 - 2603 decreased by 100.00%, and 2603 - 2604 increased by 250.00% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons. Xinjiang's production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons, Yunnan's decreased by 9.60% to 5.38 million tons, and Sichuan's decreased by 1.91% to 5.19 million tons. The national operating rate increased by 10.86% to 61.94%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.29% to 20.96 million tons, polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons. Industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased by 0.28% to 10.81 million tons, Yunnan's increased by 1.47% to 3.46 million tons, and Sichuan's remained unchanged at 2.52 million tons. Social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 55.80 million tons, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.31% to 23.08 million tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1.38% to 32.72 million tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis increased by 8.29%. The average prices of N - type silicon wafers, single - crystal Topcon cells, and related components remained unchanged [2]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price decreased by 0.61%. The spreads of consecutive months showed different degrees of change, such as the spread of the current month - the first - consecutive month decreased by 6.62% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.33% to 14.24 million tons, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.41% to 2.82 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, imports increased by 28.46% to 0.13 million tons, exports decreased by 28.16% to 0.21 million tons, and net exports decreased by 56.83% to 0.09 million tons. Silicon wafer production increased by 2.71% to 60.65 million tons, imports decreased by 17.96% to 0.04 million tons, exports remained unchanged at 0.67 million tons, and net exports increased by 1.96% to 0.63 million tons. Silicon wafer demand decreased by 2.79% to 69.63 million tons [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.16% to 26.10 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 2.49% to 18.93 million tons. Polysilicon contracts remained unchanged at 9,590 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in North China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 0.80%. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly. The 05 basis decreased by 6.86% [4]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in North China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged, while the price in East China decreased by 0.80%. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased. The 05 basis increased by 162.50% [4]. Supply - Soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%, weekly production decreased by 1.71% to 75.76 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 16.13 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 0.84% to 88,540 tons. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.50% to 19.50 yuan [4]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased by 4.72% to 6,579 million tons, soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.54% to 170.20 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.18% [4]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices decreased. The prices of main benchmark delivery items in the spot market remained unchanged. The 11 - 01 spread and 11 - 03 spread changed, and the 01 contract basis increased [5]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 7.50 yuan [5]. Supply - Port shipments decreased by 13.99% to 176.6 million cubic meters. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 17.39% to 54.0. The total inventory in major ports increased by 1.41% to 288.00 million cubic meters [5]. Demand - The average daily outbound volume decreased by 2% to 6.28 million cubic meters [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber remained unchanged, and the whole - latex basis decreased by 2.30%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.01%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 229.63%. The prices of cup rubber, glue, and other raw materials remained unchanged [7]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 3.57%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 28.57%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 21.43% [7]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's August production decreased by 0.43% to 458.80 thousand tons, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30% to 189.00 thousand tons, India's increased by 11.11% to 50.00 thousand tons, and China's increased by 12.20 thousand tons. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased slightly. August domestic tire production increased by 9.10% to 10,295.4 million pieces. September tire exports decreased by 10.65% to 5,630.0 million pieces. August natural rubber imports increased by 14.41% to 59.59 million tons, and September imports increased by 12.12% to 74.00 million tons. The production cost of Thai dry rubber decreased, and the production margin increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.57% to 44,668 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 4.73% to 44,655 tons. The outbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of general trade increased [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - The overall view of the black series futures market on November 4, 2025, is that different varieties have different trends. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level; rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, showing wide - range fluctuations; coke is expected to fluctuate strongly; coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the resonance of macro and sector themes; and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] Summary by Variety Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton or 2.19%. The position decreased by 5,350 hands to 534,930 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally decreased slightly, while domestic ore prices in Handan and Laiwu increased by 25 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (12601 to super - special) increasing by 16.4 yuan/ton [4] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The RB2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,079 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.96%, with an increase in position of 39,567 hands. The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,295 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.60%, with a decrease in position of 47,384 hands. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly [8] - **News**: In mid - October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises showed different trends. The weekly data on October 30 showed an increase in production and a decrease in inventory for both rebar and hot - rolled coil. Policies supported commercial real estate REITs, and the 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry. In September, China's steel exports increased in volume and decreased in price, while imports increased in volume and decreased slightly in price [9][10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Spread Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Various spreads such as the basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread changed [12] - **News**: On November 3, the prices of ferrosilicon in different regions showed different degrees of decline. In October, the electricity price for ferrosilicon in Qinghai increased significantly. From January to October 2025, the total output of silicomanganese was about 9.0396 million tons, and the output of silicomanganese 6517 was expected to continue to increase in November and December [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,284.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.1%. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,771.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.3%. Spot prices of coking coal in some regions increased, and most coke prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed [17] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [18] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [18] Logs - **Price, Volume, and Position Data**: The prices of different contracts of logs showed a downward trend, with different changes in trading volume and position. The spread between spot and futures also changed significantly [20] - **News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]

Group 1 - The core outcome of the recent US-China talks resulted in a reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods to 47%, with both sides making concessions on three key issues [1] - The US made significant concessions, including the cancellation of a 10% tariff on fentanyl, a one-year suspension of a 24% reciprocal tariff, and a temporary halt on export control regulations for one year [1] - In response, China adjusted its countermeasures, suspended some export controls, and began researching more detailed solutions, including a commitment to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this quarter and at least 25 million tons annually for the next three years [1][3] Group 2 - Canada's Prime Minister Carney met with Chinese leaders at the APEC summit, indicating a turning point in Canada-China relations, which had been strained since 2018 [5] - Canada has imposed a 75.8% anti-dumping deposit on canola seeds from China, significantly increasing export costs for Canadian farmers, while also facing retaliatory tariffs from the US [7] - Carney's government is pushing for a "de-Americanization" strategy, signing free trade agreements with Indonesia and preliminary agreements with the UAE and EU in various sectors [11][13] Group 3 - Canada aims to double its exports to non-US markets over the next decade, targeting over 300 billion CAD in export value, while remaining open to continued trade discussions with the US [15] - The shift in Canada's trade strategy reflects a broader trend of countries seeking to diversify their economic partnerships, indicating a potential decline in US dominance in global trade [15][17]

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive rate cut to address economic weakness and trade tensions with the U.S. [1] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, primarily due to declines in exports and weak business investment [1] - The Bank of Canada expects inflation pressures to ease in the coming months, maintaining the inflation rate near the 2% target, and has revised its inflation forecast for 2025 down to 2.0% from 2.3% [1] Group 2 - Despite the rate cut, the Canadian dollar unexpectedly strengthened against the U.S. dollar, with the USD/CAD exchange rate dropping to approximately 1.3893, the lowest level since September 25 [2] - The Bank of Canada indicated that the current policy rate is considered appropriate if inflation and economic activity develop as expected, suggesting that the rate cut may signal the end of the easing cycle [2] - The Bank of Canada projects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.6% in 2027, with trade friction and weak external demand continuing to suppress Canadian exports and manufacturing activity [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][5] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to show strong oscillatory trends driven by macro sentiment [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are predicted to have wide-range oscillations [2][11] - Coke is expected to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][14] - Coking coal is supported by fundamentals and is likely to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][15] - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 792.5 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The previous day's position was 548,944 lots, a decrease of 9,902 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) increased by 6.0 yuan, PB fines (61.5%) by 4.0 yuan, and the price of Jinbuba (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan. The basis of (12601, against Super Special) decreased by 6.0 yuan, and the basis of (12601, against Jinbuba) decreased by 10.3 yuan [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.49%. For hot-rolled coil HC2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,305 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.85%. Among spot prices, the prices of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan. The basis of (RB2601) increased by 19 yuan, and the basis of (HC2601) increased by 4 yuan [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the suggestions on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development were released, which mentioned promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry. On October 23, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons. In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [7][9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5,564 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. Among spot prices, the price of manganese ore increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The spot-futures price difference of ferrosilicon was -344 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5,100 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, and the southern quotation was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. In October, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing was 37.5%, a decrease of 6.25% compared to September, and the output was expected to be 0.9 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons compared to September [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 1.2%, and the closing price of coke J2601 was 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. Among spot prices, the price of Jinquan Mongolian 5 coking coal increased by 25 yuan, and the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan. The basis of JM2601 in Shanxi decreased by 15.0 yuan, and the basis of J2601 in Shanxi quasi-primary delivered to the factory increased by 28.0 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price decreased by 4.2%, the trading volume decreased by 9.2%, and the position decreased by 49.1%. For the 2601 contract, the closing price decreased by 5.1%, the trading volume increased by 415.9%, and the position decreased by 11.7%. Among spot prices, most of the prices of various types of logs remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight decreases [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: In the off - season, focus on the expected rebound opportunities of steel prices [2][6] - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The spot market trading sentiment is average, with wide - range fluctuations [2][10] - **Coke**: Expected to fluctuate strongly [2][13] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, expected to fluctuate strongly [2][14] - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan or 2.01%. The position decreased by 6,796 lots to 558,846 lots. Imported ore prices generally rose, while domestic ore prices declined. The basis and spreads showed different changes [4] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.54%. Hot - rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.45%. Spot prices in various regions showed an upward trend. The basis and spreads also changed [6] - **News**: In the week of October 23rd, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 27.41 tons. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices also showed a downward trend. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [10] - **News**: On October 27th, silicon - iron prices in different regions were reported, and NMT announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 1.2%. Coke J2601 closed at 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [14] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both, indicating a relatively strong trend [15] Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of different contracts decreased, with daily and weekly declines. The trading volume and position of some contracts changed significantly [17] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [19]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises in September showed a significant improvement in both revenue and profit, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.7% and profit growth of 21.6%, indicating a positive trend in the industrial sector despite previous fluctuations in earlier months [1][8][9]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In September, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points compared to August. The cumulative revenue growth for the first three quarters reached 2.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1][7][8]. - The profit for September saw a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of over 20% profit growth. The cumulative profit growth for the first three quarters was 3.2% [1][9][8]. Profit Contribution Analysis - The profit contribution can be broken down into several factors: 1. The industrial added value jumped to a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, driven by export delivery rhythms and policy adjustments [2][11]. 2. The Producer Price Index (PPI) shifted from negative growth to zero growth in August and September, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [2][11]. 3. The profit margin improved, with the revenue profit margin for January to September at 5.26%, a year-on-year increase of 0.04 percentage points, marking the first positive change in profit margin this year [2][11][12]. 4. The improvement in profit margins in August was primarily due to alleviated cost pressures, while in September, it was attributed to a decrease in expenses [2][15]. Industry Performance - The industries leading in profit growth for the first three quarters included non-ferrous metals, essential consumer goods, midstream equipment manufacturing, and public utilities. All eight sectors within equipment manufacturing achieved positive growth [3][18]. - High-growth sub-sectors included smart consumer device manufacturing, electronic component manufacturing, and specialized equipment manufacturing [3][18]. - The industries with the largest profit declines were concentrated in energy and mining, as well as durable and semi-durable consumer goods [3][20]. Marginal Changes in September - The profit improvement in September was influenced by low base effects in sectors like computer communication electronics and automotive, while price recovery in coal, construction materials, and electrical machinery also contributed positively [4][23]. - The nominal inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year by the end of September, while actual inventory growth was slightly lower at 5.1% [5][25][27]. Financial Stability - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained stable at 58% as of the end of September, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points [5][29][30]. - Owner's equity grew by 4.7% year-on-year, reflecting a corresponding increase in profit growth, while liabilities increased by 5.2%, indicating a trend of slowing growth in liabilities since March [5][29][30]. Overall Outlook - The industrial sector's profits have maintained a high year-on-year growth rate of over 20% for two consecutive months, largely supported by base effects and price improvements. The cumulative profit growth for the first three quarters was 3.2%, suggesting a potential end to three consecutive years of negative profit growth [6][30].

Core Points - The U.S. President Trump announced an additional 10% import tariff on Canadian goods, citing a misleading advertisement funded by the Ontario government that criticized U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - The advertisement, which quoted former President Reagan, claimed tariffs harm American workers and consumers, leading to a trade war [1] - Following the announcement, Canadian officials expressed dissatisfaction, and Ontario's Premier Doug Ford decided to suspend the advertisement to facilitate constructive dialogue with the U.S. [2][3] Group 1 - The additional tariff is a response to a specific advertisement that Trump claims distorts facts and aims to interfere with U.S. court decisions regarding tariffs [1][2] - The advertisement continued to air during a major baseball event, which further angered Trump, prompting his decision to raise tariffs [2] - Canadian officials, including Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, expressed a desire for constructive discussions despite the escalating tensions [3] Group 2 - The Canadian economy is facing challenges, with a reported unemployment rate at a nine-year high, partly due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on key Canadian exports [3] - The Canadian Chamber of Commerce highlighted that any level of tariffs would primarily burden the U.S. before affecting North American competitiveness [3] - There has been a significant decline in cross-border travel and U.S. exports to Canada, with a 31% drop in road travel and an 85% decrease in U.S. liquor exports to Canada in the second quarter [3]