经济观察网据央视新闻客户端消息，当地时间1月26日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"发文 表示，由于韩国国会未批准并落实此前与美国达成的贸易协议，美方将提高对韩国商品征收的关税税 率。 特朗普称，韩国立法机构"未能履行与美国达成的协议"，称该协议是其与韩国总统李在明于2025年7月 30日达成，并在其2025年10月29日访韩时再次确认。 特朗普表示，鉴于韩国方面尚未通过该项"具有历史意义的贸易协议"，他已决定将对韩国汽车、木材、 制药产品以及其他对等关税项目的税率从15%上调至25%。 ...

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的 文|小戎 一边是刚点头默许盟友合作，一边转头就甩出百倍关税大棒；一边是盟友迫切想打破经济困局，一边是 霸主用强权强行捆绑。 2026年初的这场跨洋博弈，特朗普连表面和气都懒得维持，直接将枪口对准了最亲近的邻居加拿大，一 场关乎经济主权的较量已然打响，而加拿大成了首个被推上风口浪尖的受害者。 不准与中国签协议，否则加税100% 谁能想到，八天前还被特朗普称为"好事"的中加经贸合作，转瞬就成了引爆霸权怒火的导火索。 加拿大总理卡尼访华带回的《经贸合作路线图》，本是这个依赖单一市场的国家，为经济找的一条活路 ——不仅能摆脱对美75.9%的出口依赖，还能靠着农产品和能源出口打开新空间。 可这份互利共赢的协议，在特朗普眼里却成了挑战权威的"叛逆之举"。 特朗普的翻脸比翻书还快，直接在社交媒体撂下狠话：只要加拿大敢和中国敲定任何贸易协议，所有输 美商品一律加征100%关税，这个税率比去年的威胁翻了十倍，近乎要把加拿大经济逼上绝路。 更过分的是，他再次将加拿大称作"美国第51个州"，完全无视这个主权国家的尊严，字里行间都在传递 一 ...

当地时间1月24日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文威胁称，如果加拿大与有关国家"达成协议"，将对 进入美国的加拿大商品征收100%的关税。 卡尼22日曾公开反驳特朗普，强调加拿大的存在并非"仰赖美国"，加拿大人是"自己国家的主人"。 加拿大总理卡尼20日在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛上发表演讲，批评美国政策导致全球关系破裂。 卡尼在讲话中提及"美国霸权"，称美国正在利用"经济一体化"作为"胁迫手段"。 随后，美国总统特朗普21日在世界经济论坛年会上声称"加拿大之所以存在全靠美国"，并要求卡尼在未 来的发言中记住这一点。特朗普22日还表示，已撤回此前对卡尼发出的加入"和平委员会"的邀请。 2025年第二季度，加拿大国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下滑了1.6%，其中出口下降了7.5%。加拿 大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆指出，美国的贸易行动和相关不确定性已对加拿大的汽车、钢铝和木材等重 点行业造成 "严重影响"。 综合自：央视新闻 对此，加拿大总理卡尼24日号召该国民众"购买国货"，以应对外部威胁。 卡尼在其个人社交媒体上发布一段事先录制好的视频。卡尼在视频里说："鉴于我们的经济正在经受来 自国外的威胁，加拿大人做出了 ...

（原标题：100%关税！特朗普，再发威胁！加拿大回应） 2025年第二季度，加拿大国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下滑了1.6%，其中出口下降了7.5%。加拿 大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆指出，美国的贸易行动和相关不确定性已对加拿大的汽车、钢铝和木材等重 点行业造成 "严重影响"。 综合自：央视新闻 责编：李丹 尽管没有直接提及美国，但卡尼重申将推动实施"购买国货"政策。他指出："我们无法控制其他国家的 行为。但我们可以成为自己最好的客户。我们将购买加拿大产品，我们将用加拿大产品来建设国家。" 卡尼22日曾公开反驳特朗普，强调加拿大的存在并非"仰赖美国"，加拿大人是"自己国家的主人"。 加拿大总理卡尼20日在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛上发表演讲，批评美国政策导致全球关系破裂。 卡尼在讲话中提及"美国霸权"，称美国正在利用"经济一体化"作为"胁迫手段"。 随后，美国总统特朗普21日在世界经济论坛年会上声称"加拿大之所以存在全靠美国"，并要求卡尼在未 来的发言中记住这一点。特朗普22日还表示，已撤回此前对卡尼发出的加入"和平委员会"的邀请。 特朗普再发关税威胁，加拿大回应。 当地时间1月24日，美国总统特朗普在社交 ...

卡尼22日曾公开反驳特朗普，强调加拿大的存在并非"仰赖美国"，加拿大人是"自己国家的主人"。 特朗普再发关税威胁，加拿大回应。 当地时间1月24日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文威胁称，如果加拿大与有关国家"达成协议"，将对 进入美国的加拿大商品征收100%的关税。 对此，加拿大总理卡尼24日号召该国民众"购买国货"，以应对外部威胁。 卡尼在其个人社交媒体上发布一段事先录制好的视频。卡尼在视频里说："鉴于我们的经济正在经受来 自国外的威胁，加拿大人做出了选择：专注于我们能够掌控的事情。" 尽管没有直接提及美国，但卡尼重申将推动实施"购买国货"政策。他指出："我们无法控制其他国家的 行为。但我们可以成为自己最好的客户。我们将购买加拿大产品，我们将用加拿大产品来建设国家。" 校对： 吕久彪 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 加拿大总理卡尼20日在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛上发表演讲，批评美国政策导致全球关系破裂。 卡尼在讲话中提及"美国霸权"，称美国正在利用"经济一体化"作为"胁迫手段"。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理， ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the United States and Canada is deteriorating, with Canada responding to U.S. threats of tariffs by promoting domestic products and seeking to diversify its trade partnerships [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S.-Canada Tensions - President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada reaches agreements with certain countries [2][3]. - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau called on citizens to "buy Canadian" in response to external threats, emphasizing the need for Canada to focus on what it can control [3][4]. - Trudeau's remarks at the World Economic Forum indicated a significant shift in Canada's policy towards the U.S., advocating for medium powers to collaborate and avoid becoming victims of U.S. hegemony [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Since Trump's return to the White House, relations have worsened, leading to Canadian public backlash against U.S. products and travel [6]. - A Pew Research Center poll indicated that by 2025, 64% of Canadians held a negative view of the U.S., the highest in over two decades, with 77% expressing distrust in Trump [6]. - The trade conflict has already caused a 2% decline in Canadian exports to the U.S. by 2025, attributed to increased costs from tariffs [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Strategy - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2025, with exports down by 7.5%, largely due to U.S. trade actions [7]. - The Canadian government is pursuing an economic transformation focused on diversification and resilience, aiming to double exports to non-U.S. markets over the next decade [7].

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Paper Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various soft commodities are different, with some facing adjustment pressure and others showing recovery trends. Overall, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most commodities [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today. After previous increases, it may continue to adjust due to general downstream demand and uncertain reduction in Xinjiang planting area. As of end - December, national cotton commercial inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons month - on - month and 9.96 million tons year - on - year. In December, domestic cotton imports were 18 million tons, up 4.41 million tons year - on - year and 6.13 million tons month - on - month. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian market focuses on next season's production. Expected lower rainfall in Q1 and reduced sugar - making ratio may lead to less sugar production in 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall. Production and sales progress is slow. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [3] Apple - Futures price fluctuated. Spot price was stable. During Spring Festival stocking, procurement of farmers' apples was less. As of January 16, national cold - storage apple inventory was 655.57 million tons, down 6.93% year - on - year. Last week's de - stocking volume was 17.8 million tons, down 50.36% year - on - year. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR futures prices rose slightly, butadiene rubber BR futures price rose sharply. Global natural rubber supply is in a reduction period. Chinese tire start - up rate rebounded last week. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 58.49 million tons. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures fell slightly today. Due to weak downstream demand, short - term fundamentals are average. As of January 15, Chinese paper pulp port inventory was 201.4 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last period. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [7] Logs - Futures price fluctuated. Spot price was stable. External quotation decreased, and short - term arrival volume will reduce. As of January 16, national port log inventory was 257 million cubic meters, down 4.46% month - on - month. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Expected to experience weak oscillations [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by emergencies, raw materials drag down finished products [2][7]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: With tightened demand - side expectations, they will have wide - range oscillations [2][11]. - **Coke**: Disturbed by downstream accidents, it will oscillate at a high level [2][15]. - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [2][15]. - **Steam Coal**: Market sentiment is weak, and prices will have a short - term weak adjustment [2][19]. - **Logs**: Expected to experience weak oscillations [2][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Movements**: The futures price closed at 794.0 yuan/ton, down 18.0 yuan/ton (-2.22%). Imported and domestic ore spot prices also declined. The basis and some spreads changed [4]. - **News**: On January 19, 2026, the central bank lowered the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Movements**: RB2605 closed at 3,140 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.04%); HC2605 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.75%). Spot prices in various regions decreased. Some spreads changed [7]. - **News**: On January 19, an explosion occurred at Baotou Baogang Plate Mill. Steel production and inventory data for December 2025 were released, and export license management was implemented for some steel products [8][9]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide - **Price Movements**: Futures and spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide declined. There were changes in various spreads [12]. - **News**: In December 2025, China's crude steel output decreased year - on - year. Some steel companies' procurement prices for silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide were announced [13][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movements**: JM2605 closed at 1,174.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.3%); J2605 closed at 1,721 yuan/ton, up 0.2%. Spot prices were mostly stable, and some spreads changed [15]. - **News**: On January 19, the CCI metallurgical coal index was released, and the coking coal online auction had a low failure rate and rising prices [15]. Steam Coal - **Price Movements**: Domestic and overseas prices, as well as long - term agreement prices, showed a downward trend [19]. - **News**: In December 2025, China's coal production increased month - on - month, coal imports increased significantly, and Indonesia's coal production quota is expected to tighten in 2026 [20]. Logs - **Price Movements**: Futures contract prices declined, and trading volume and open interest changed. Spot prices were mostly stable [22]. - **News**: China's December 2025 RatingDog composite PMI exceeded the boom - bust line [24].

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China is under significant pressure from both domestic and international fronts, impacting his plans [1] - Canada has been heavily reliant on the U.S. for trade, but this dependency has led to economic challenges, particularly due to increased tariffs on key industries like steel and lumber [3] - The Canadian economy is suffering from U.S. tariffs, with canola prices plummeting and pork producers in Manitoba losing up to 19 million CAD annually [5] Group 2 - Carney's strategy to alleviate trade pressures includes diversifying trade relationships, particularly with China, as reliance on the U.S. has proven detrimental [6] - Trump's comments threaten the importance of the USMCA agreement, which allows 80% of Canadian goods to enter the U.S. tariff-free, highlighting the precarious nature of Canada's trade relationship with the U.S. [7] - The U.S. pressure on Canada may inadvertently push Canada to strengthen ties with China, as the percentage of Canadian exports to the U.S. has decreased from 78% to 72% [9] Group 3 - Carney's visit to China reflects a broader trend among countries previously aligned with the U.S. seeking independent development paths, as seen with Argentina's recent policy shifts [11][12] - The U.S. has imposed strict conditions on Canada regarding the USMCA, further alienating Canada and prompting a search for new partnerships [14] - For Carney's visit to yield substantial results, he must demonstrate sincerity and address domestic opposition by reconsidering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and proposing concrete cooperation plans in agriculture and energy [16][17] Group 4 - Trump's threats have not deterred Carney but have instead clarified the U.S.'s hegemonic nature, accelerating the awakening of allies to seek their own paths [19]

Economic Overview - Bosnia's economy has shown strong adaptability despite global shocks, with many companies shifting towards modernization, digitalization, and market diversification to mitigate the negative impacts of reduced EU orders [1][2] - The GDP growth rate for Bosnia in 2025 is estimated at 2.4%, indicating a positive but moderate economic momentum, while the average inflation rate is projected to be around 4%, primarily influenced by food and logistics prices [1] Industrial Sector Insights - The industrial sector in Bosnia is facing significant pressure from global conditions, including a slowdown in demand from major European markets, fluctuating energy prices, and rising transportation costs [1] - Investment in automation, energy-efficient processes, and data management has significantly increased, indicating efforts within the industrial sector to achieve structural transformation and enhance competitiveness [2] Export Dynamics - The metal and electrical industries remain the backbone of Bosnia's export activities, accounting for over 40% of total exports, demonstrating their critical role as a driver of foreign trade even amid global economic uncertainty [3] - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting January 1, 2026, is expected to have a severe impact on Bosnia's industrial sector, particularly as the EU is a key export market [2][3] Future Outlook - The outlook for Bosnia's economy in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of moderate growth, although it will still face a range of complex international and domestic challenges [3] - Strategic investments, targeted reforms, and support for the export sector are essential for Bosnia to accelerate growth, create new jobs, and solidify its position in international markets [3]