Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Indian benchmark Nifty 50 index is expected to rise to 30,000 points by the end of 2026, an increase of approximately 15% from current levels, driven by tax cuts and interest rate reductions [1] Market Performance - The Indian stock market experienced its strongest rebound in five months, with the Nifty 50 index surging 1.24% to 26,205.3 points, marking the highest closing level in 14 months [1] - The BSE Sensex index also rose 1.21% to 86,609.51 points, ending a three-day decline, with both indices recording their best single-day performance in five months [2] Economic Drivers - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, alongside recent tax cuts that have begun to boost consumption, corporate debt growth, and automobile sales, collectively driving domestic demand [3][4] - The report highlights that while the current valuation of the Indian stock market is at a premium compared to other emerging markets, it has fallen below long-term averages after 14 months of underperformance [4] Trade Relations - Analysts believe that the likelihood of a US-India trade agreement is high, which could lead to a short-term revaluation of the stock market. Increased oil imports from the US and reduced purchases from Russia may eliminate the possibility of punitive tariffs from the US [5] - The potential removal of the additional 25% tariff is expected to boost investor confidence, attract foreign capital, support the rupee, and benefit the IT and pharmaceutical sectors [5] Sector Preferences - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on sectors such as materials, financials, consumer goods, hospitals, real estate, defense, and power, while holding a "underweight" stance on IT and pharmaceutical sectors [7] - The analysis suggests that industries benefiting from domestic consumption growth and infrastructure development will perform better, with the financial sector poised to gain from the interest rate cycle and increased corporate debt demand [7]

由于房地产是一个大行业，上下游产业链很长，涉及到从制造业到服务业等几十个行业，2026年我国经济仍将受到房地 产下行的影响，如今年前10月民间投资增速降幅较大，达到-4.5%，即便剔除房地产投资，还是接近于零增长。同时， 房地产下行对银行、信托等金融业也带来明显的负面影响， 好在我国金融机构绝大部分是国企，有各级政府作信用背 书。 要在西方国家发生房地产泡沫破灭时，通常会发生金融机构的破产倒闭事件。 再过一个多月就到2026年了。最近参加各类研讨会较多，至少表明相对于实体经济，会议经济的活跃度有所提升。现我把近期 会议上发表的观点归纳如下，供参考。 绕不开的房地产周期 从2000年到2020年房地产的长周期上行阶段，大家几乎都不相信房价还会下跌。朱宁教授写的那本《刚性泡沫》非常 畅销，当然他当时是看空房地产的。 我在2017年的博鳌亚洲论坛上有一个发言，认为我国房地产将在2020年前后见 顶。 当时这个判断引起很大争议，因为 人性往往受制于"思维定势"，也就是惯性。房价涨的时间长了，就以为一直能 涨下去，反之亦然。 两三年前房价下跌初期，不少分析师认为只要销售面积到10亿或者9亿平米就见底了。我当时就提出这个 ...

2025年，全球政治经济格局仍充满不确定性，而中国坚定不移地走高质量发展道路，为市场注入了难得的确定性。在此背景下，投资者应如何把握中国资产 的战略机遇，实现财富的稳健增长？ 据悉，本次投教直播由上海证券交易所、平安证券联合主办，上交所投教基地、平安证券投教基地承办、中国基金报提供媒体支持。直播通过平安证券 APP、平安好车主、中国基金报视频号、中国基金报APP同步直播，曝光量超350万，在看人数超15万，在投资者中引发较好反响，展现了市场对当前投资 机遇的关注。 11月18日下午4点，上海证券交易所与平安证券联合组织"践行三投资理念，共享高质量发展"系列投教直播活动。平安证券研究所副所长、首席策略分析师 魏伟围绕"把握中国资产确定性，共享高质量发展红利"这一主题，从全球宏观环境、中国产业趋势、资本市场改革以及资产配置策略等多个维度展开深度解 读，为投资者厘清脉络、指明方向，带来一场兼具洞察力与实操价值的市场展望！ 全球宏观环境：挑战中孕育新机遇 魏伟从全球宏观环境分析入手，指出2025年海外不确定性仍有所增加，而国内坚定走高质量发展道路，构成了宏观环境的基本特征。 首先，从全球经济周期角度看，全球贸易政策不 ...

Group 1: ETF Market Growth - The total scale of ETFs in Shanghai and Shenzhen has exceeded 5.7 trillion yuan, with 772 ETFs in Shanghai valued at 40,847.47 billion yuan and 559 ETFs in Shenzhen valued at 16,246.33 billion yuan [1] - Recent regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission have optimized the ETF registration and listing review process, potentially enriching product supply and attracting more long-term capital into the market [1] Group 2: Financial Support for Consumption - Various regions have announced financial policies to support consumption, focusing on encouraging consumer-oriented companies to go public and guiding financial institutions to utilize loans for consumption and elderly care [1] - Supporting high-quality consumer companies is expected to enhance corporate credibility, expand quality supply, and optimize consumption structure [1] Group 3: Share Buybacks by Listed Companies - A-share listed companies have shown strong enthusiasm for share buybacks, with 1,859 buyback plans implemented this year, involving 1,365 companies, and 365 companies completing buybacks exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - The total buyback amount has reached approximately 227.5 billion yuan, signaling positive market sentiment and investor confidence [1] Group 4: Copper Industry Challenges - Copper prices have reached historical highs, but rising raw material costs are significantly impacting downstream operations, with 18% of small and medium-sized enterprises in the copper supply chain reducing production [2] - Many copper smelting plants are facing raw material shortages, leading to increased operational pressures and a potential shift towards aluminum in various applications due to cost advantages [2] Group 5: Quantum Computing Development - China's first optical quantum computer manufacturing plant has been established in Shenzhen, covering approximately 5,000 square meters and integrating R&D, manufacturing, and testing [3] - The plant aims to achieve engineering, standardization, and large-scale production of optical quantum computers, marking a significant step in the country's quantum computing capabilities [3] Group 6: Investment in Robotics - Three listed companies, Longqi Technology, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Ningbo Huaxiang, have announced plans to invest in a new venture capital fund focused on the embodied intelligence industry [5] - The fund aims to stimulate the growth of the supply chain ecosystem by investing in early-stage innovative companies within the industry [5] Group 7: Xiaomi Stock Buyback - Xiaomi Group's founder Lei Jun has personally invested over 100 million Hong Kong dollars to increase his stake in the company, raising his ownership to 23.26% [5] - The company has conducted significant stock buybacks, totaling over 2.3 billion Hong Kong dollars this year [5] Group 8: New H Shares Issuance - UBTECH has announced a placement of 31.468 million new H shares at a discount of approximately 11.39% from the previous closing price [6] - LeMo Technology plans to globally issue 5.5556 million H shares, with a maximum price of 40 Hong Kong dollars per share [7] Group 9: Control Change in ST Lvkang - ST Lvkang has undergone a change in controlling shareholder to Zongteng Network, with the actual controller now being Wang Zuan [8] - This change is not expected to have a significant adverse impact on the company's main business and operating performance [8] Group 10: Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Supply - Xinzhou Bang has reported that its self-supply ratio of lithium hexafluorophosphate is currently between 50% and 70%, with plans to maintain this level while optimizing costs [9] - The company aims to balance cost control with external partnerships to ensure supply chain stability [9] Group 11: Stock Issuance by Guangxun Technology - Guangxun Technology's application for a specific stock issuance has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, pending further regulatory approvals [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent A-share market has experienced significant adjustments, with major indices seeing substantial weekly declines, yet there is a notable influx of funds into ETFs, indicating a "buy the dip" mentality among investors [2][4]. Fund Flows and Market Trends - During the week of November 17-21, A-shares faced a major downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 3% and the ChiNext Index falling more than 6%, marking the largest single-week decline in months [2][4]. - Despite this downturn, a total of 701.21 billion yuan flowed into stock and cross-border ETFs, with broad index ETFs attracting 359.31 billion yuan, highlighting a strong interest in these investment vehicles [4][5]. - The trend of "buying the dip" is evident, as many investors are taking advantage of the market correction to enter positions in ETFs [5][8]. Sector Preferences - The most favored ETFs during this period include the CSI 500 ETF, STAR 50 ETF, and ChiNext ETF, with net inflows of 64.29 billion yuan, 56.99 billion yuan, and 55.33 billion yuan, respectively [5][8]. - There is a clear shift in fund flows, with significant outflows from high-valuation sectors such as electronics and technology, while sectors like banking and consumer goods are gaining attention due to their relative stability and lower valuations [7][8]. Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the current market environment calls for a balanced investment approach, focusing on undervalued assets and sectors with strong fundamentals, such as AI, chips, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [9]. - The recommendation for investors is to diversify their portfolios and consider stocks that have not seen significant price increases, rather than concentrating on high-flying tech stocks [9].

在全力支持稳企业稳就业方面，广西打出降低民营企业融资成本、全面推行阳光采购、千方百计稳定就 业岗位等"组合拳"，有效激发市场主体活力。数据显示，7—10月，全区金融惠企财政贴息贷款投向民 营企业635.44亿元，惠及民营企业2.35万户，降低民营企业融资成本6.84亿元；1—10月，广西就业补助 支出25.99亿元、同比增长3.6%，重点保障公益性岗位、社会保障补贴，大力支持就业、创业、职业培 训。 此外，广西坚持在发展中保障和改善民生。据统计，1—10月，全区财政民生支出4274.19亿元、规模连 续10个月创历年同期新高，同比增长4.3%、增速创近6年同期新高，占一般公共预算支出的比重为 80.4%、占比创近7年同期新高（记者韦静） 11月23日，记者从自治区财政厅获悉，今年1—10月，全区一般公共预算收入和支出分别完成1509.93亿 元和5314.9亿元，同比增长3%和4.1%，其中，全区一般公共预算支出累计增速连续10个月均高于年初 预算目标和去年同期，支出规模有9个月创同期新高，重点领域支出得到有效保障。 今年以来，广西积极扩大政府投资、大力提振消费，截至10月底，累计发行项目建设类新增政府债券 ...

经过一段时间调整之后，近期A股和港股有一定的企稳反弹，市场信心有所回升。那么市场在年底之前 可能会受到布局明年资金的带动，出现一轮像样的反弹行情，甚至可能是跨年度行情。前段时间市场的 回调主要是对前期涨幅过大的一些科技股出现获利回吐的压力，出现了调整，市场的趋势并没有改变。 这轮牛市已经走了一年的时间，经历了两波大幅上涨，结构性行情特点明显。大盘在突破4000点之后反 复震荡调整，出现了一定的分化。那么在获利回吐的压力之下，前期涨幅比较大的科技股出现了回调， 新能源、电力设备这些"中登股"以及白酒医药等"老登股"则是出现了轮动反弹的走势。板块轮动是市场 行情逐步深化的一个特征，也是一个健康的轮动。所以在年底马上到12月份，市场可能会迎来新一波的 反弹机会，特别是有一些资金要布局2026年的行情，可能会趁调整来进行逢低布局。 2026年中国的牛市预计将会延续，上涨节奏可能会放缓，但是各个板块将轮动起来，从而赚钱效应更 强。2026年有可能从当前的结构性牛市转向全面牛市，从而带动更多的板块回升。那么到2027年，中国 股市仍然有进一步回升的机会，也是这轮慢牛长期行情有望延续较长时间，为投资者带来较多更多的赚 钱机 ...

第一：美消费领域传来不好消息 美东时间11月21日，美国密歇根大学公布的数据显示，美国11月消费者信心终值从10月的53.6降至51。当前状况指 数下滑7.5点至51.1，创历史新低。 美国消费者对个人财务状况的预期更是降至2009年以来的最低水平。而近期美股的消费板块也持续遭到抛售。 持续的停摆，让美市场更加艰难，还是要注意点。 第二：年内再融资规模突破万亿 数据统计，截至11月21日，A股共有205家上市公司通过多种方式进行再融资，募集的资金总额达10180.72亿元。 与去年前11个月相比同比增长幅度约为368%。市场涨起来，再融资的企业变多，估值变好，倒是一个好路子。 第三：对面正考虑允许英伟达对华出售H200芯片 得益于中美双边关系缓和，对面正考虑允许英伟达向中国出售H200人工智能（AI）芯片。 如果说，限制英伟达有利于发展本地化优势，那么放开让他进来，势必对国内产业链造成竞争压力。 毕竟有更好的，能买到，谁不会动心？ 第四：今日看法 这两天，好像是暖阳来到了汕头，天气都非常不错，昨天是一个美美的周六，今天大概率也是一个非常不错的星期 天。 必要的工作之外，多陪陪家人，锻炼身体，静心思考。世界很美 ...

Market Overview - The recent global market downturn, driven by heightened risk aversion, has led to a significant adjustment in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points [2][3] - Key sectors such as new energy, photovoltaic, and power equipment have experienced notable pullbacks, while banking, shipbuilding, and consumer sectors have shown relative resilience [2] External Influences - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to external factors, including concerns over the "AI bubble," a retreat in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a cautious shift in market sentiment [3][4] - The volatility in global risk assets has been exacerbated by year-end fund settlement periods, prompting some investors to lock in profits and rankings through selling [3] Fundamental Support - Despite recent market fluctuations, the fundamental factors supporting the current rally in the Chinese stock market remain intact, including steady macroeconomic recovery, improved competitiveness of key industries, and enhanced capital market positioning [4][5] - The adjustment is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with expectations for a potential recovery as market sentiment stabilizes [4] Investment Opportunities - The current market adjustment presents a strategic opportunity for investors to reposition their portfolios ahead of the anticipated spring market rally in 2026 [6] - There is a consensus among institutions that the internal certainties of the Chinese market, such as new growth momentum and clear policy direction, will not be adversely affected by external disturbances [5][6] - Following the adjustment, sectors such as banking and insurance, along with consumer stocks with stable fundamentals, may present rotation opportunities before the technology sector regains momentum [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent global financial market is dominated by risk aversion, leading to widespread sell-offs in risk assets, including major stock markets and commodities, with A-shares also experiencing adjustments [1] Group 1: Market Adjustments - The A-share market has seen significant adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points, particularly in sectors like new energy, photovoltaic, and power equipment [1] - The current market adjustment is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a fundamental change in the upward trend of the Chinese stock market, driven by macroeconomic recovery and improved corporate fundamentals [7][11] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The early release of risks in the market presents an opportunity for investors to reallocate assets towards A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly for those looking to position for 2026 [3] - After the current adjustments, the spring market is expected to be more promising, with technology growth likely to be a key theme [4][19] Group 3: Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking and insurance are expected to show resilience during the current market turbulence, while high-dividend stocks and consumer goods may present rotation opportunities [10] - The AI sector's current phase is seen as just beginning, with significant growth potential remaining, as the market transitions from hardware to application layers [15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to stabilize post-adjustment, with a potential recovery in Chinese assets driven by internal factors such as new economic momentum and clear policy direction [9][18] - The historical pattern suggests that the current adjustments align with typical seasonal fluctuations, with expectations for a spring rally to commence soon [16]