Core Insights - The recent escalation of the US-China supply chain and tariff conflict is a continuation of trade frictions since 2018, and it is not a new negative factor for the A-share market. Historical experience shows that such shocks often create phase low points and investment opportunities [2][6][10] - Compared to the tariff shock in April this year, the current market has more favorable conditions, including investor expectations of tariff threats and stronger market resilience due to key resistance levels being surpassed [4][10] - Short-term adjustments are inevitable, but the market still shows resilience, with the potential for new highs after the shock ends. This adjustment may serve as an opportunity to optimize the investment structure [2][10] Industry and Company Analysis - The classic response strategy to the US-China conflict emphasizes self-sufficiency and domestic circulation, suggesting a focus on sectors with relatively low positions and marginal improvements, such as military industry, semiconductors, software self-sufficiency, new consumption, and non-ferrous metals [2][10] - The current market sentiment is bolstered by a stronger willingness of residents to invest, increased protective actions from important institutional investors, and accelerated trends in new industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which provide long-term value during corrections [4][10] - The average guarantee ratio in the market has significantly improved from 261% in April to 287%, enhancing the market's ability to withstand downturns despite a larger scale of financing [4][9][10] - The recent market dynamics indicate that sectors such as gold, copper, cobalt, photovoltaic batteries, lithium battery equipment, wind power, semiconductors, and automotive are experiencing improvements or high levels of prosperity [4][10]

光大证券发布研报称，短期内，市场或进入宽幅震荡阶段。一方面，经过前期的上涨，市场估值处于近 几年相对高位，部分资金相对谨慎，叠加中美关系仍然存在较大不确定性，市场风险偏好或将有所回 落。另一方面，党的二十届四中全会临近，市场的政策预期有望升温，叠加美联储年内仍有降息空间， 或将对市场形成支撑。因此，多重因素交织下，短期内，市场或进入宽幅震荡阶段。行业配置方面，短 期内关注高股息及消费板块，中期关注TMT和先进制造板块。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月11日 策略解读 贸易摩擦升级对 A 股有何影响 策略研究·策略解读 | 证券分析师： | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 王开 | | | | | | | 021-60933132 | | | | | | | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | | | | | | | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | 事项： 受特朗普叫嚣所谓的"关税威胁"影响，10 月 10 日美股三大股指集体下挫，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一 交易日下跌 878.82 点，收于 45479.60 点，跌幅为 1.90%；标准普尔 500 种股票指数下跌 182.60 点，收于 6552.51 点，跌幅为 2.71%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 820.20 点，收于 22204.43 点，跌幅为 3.56%。美国大 型科技股和中概股全线下跌，短期受情绪冲击影响较大。在政策支持前景下，我们仍看好 A 股市场中期走 势，关注四季度风格再平衡，布局地产、券商、消费等价值型板块。 观点： 关税冲击后，A 股中期向好逻辑未变，Q4 风格向传统价 ...

10月10日，国庆节后第二个交易日，A股市场风格转变，没有延续前一日的上涨态势，从ETF的表现来 看，前期涨势较好的电池、芯片、信息技术等ETF大幅回调，不少行业ETF单日跌超7%；而已经回调了 一段时间的建材、高股息、农业ETF等领涨。 个股方面，华虹公司、亿纬锂能等前期涨幅较大的公司回调较深，单日跌幅均超10%。港股也同样遭遇 回调，10月10日，港股科技股同步下跌。截至当日收盘，恒生指数跌1.73%，恒生科技指数跌3.27%。 药明生物、中芯国际、紫金矿业、百度集团-SW、快手-W跌幅靠前。 当日晚间美股开盘后也"上演黑色星期五"，股指大跳水，截至当日美股收盘，道指下跌878.82点跌 1.90%；纳指下跌3.56%；标普500指数下跌2.71%。其中，标普500指数和纳指均创下自4月10日以来的 最大单日跌幅。 值得关注的是，与国内市场关联更为紧密的纳斯达克中国金龙指数当日则下跌6.10%，空方力量强劲。 阿里巴巴与百度集团股价均暴跌超8%，京东集团跌超6%。 有投资者牛市急跌中加仓 也有投资经验超过15年的资深投资人表示，"最近市场热度太高，尤其是一些重点板块，适量降温有助 于市场稳定走高，从这个角 ...

A-Share Market - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.37%, while the ChiNext Index fell significantly by 3.86, indicating notable internal market differences [5][6] - Value stocks generally rose, particularly mid-cap value stocks, while growth stocks experienced a broad pullback. The average daily trading volume for the week was 2.6 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period [5][6] - The market volatility increased post-National Day, influenced by rising prices of industrial and precious metals, with gold surpassing 4000 USD per ounce. The non-ferrous metals sector saw a cumulative increase of 4.35% during the week [5][6] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market faced downward pressure, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 3.13% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 5.48%. Traditional value sectors showed relative resilience, while technology, consumer, and healthcare sectors experienced significant declines, with non-essential consumer and healthcare sectors falling over 6% [7] - The adjustment in the Hong Kong market was primarily driven by external uncertainties and internal sector rotations, particularly due to the tightening of US-China relations. The announcement of a 100% tariff on all brand or patented drug imports by the US significantly impacted the healthcare sector [7] - Looking ahead, the Hong Kong market is expected to be heavily influenced by US-China relations, with potential risks from increased tariffs on Chinese goods. Focus should be on dividend-paying sectors less affected by these relations, especially cyclical sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [7]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings announced a plan to privatize Hang Seng Bank at a premium of over 30%, leading to a 25.88% surge in Hang Seng Bank's stock price on the same day, highlighting a growing trend of privatization in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 1: Privatization Trends - There have been over 20 privatization-related cases in the Hong Kong stock market this year, spanning various sectors including finance, real estate, and consumer goods [1] - The privatization activities are reshaping the equity structure of listed companies and serve as a key window to observe market valuation logic and capital movements [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The announcement by HSBC triggered significant market interest in privatization, as evidenced by the immediate stock price reaction of Hang Seng Bank [1] - The performance of stocks related to privatization varies significantly, with some companies experiencing drastic changes in their stock prices [1]

Market Overview - The overall market has seen a decline, with the closing rating at 4.1 stars [1] - All market caps, including large, medium, and small caps, experienced a downturn [2] - Growth style stocks faced significant declines, while value style stocks remained relatively stable [3][7] Index Performance - The ChiNext index dropped over 4% after reaching overvalued levels [4] - The Sci-Tech 50 index fell by 4.7% [5] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced declines, particularly in technology and growth sectors [11][12] Investment Style Dynamics - There is a notable rotation in market styles, with growth stocks showing high volatility and value stocks exhibiting lower volatility during corrections [14] - Indices focused on dividends, value, and free cash flow generally saw increases, with free cash flow indices rising for five consecutive trading days [8][9] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong medical index has shown significant volatility, with a 4.9% drop recently [16] - The Hong Kong medical index has increased by 60-80% from the beginning of the year to the end of September, despite some recent corrections [30] - The Hong Kong medical index is categorized differently than its A-share counterparts, with a focus on healthcare and innovative drugs [21][25] Valuation and Future Outlook - The Hong Kong medical index reached overvalued levels in early September but has since seen a valuation correction [31][32] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market is currently between 3.5 and 3.6 stars, with fewer undervalued stocks compared to the previous year [33] - The market is expected to continue adjusting, with some stocks being sold to increase bond holdings in response to rising stock asset values [43]

一、市场回顾 9月市场整体高位震荡，结构分化明显，和科创板涨幅明显并创出本轮行情新高，其他主要指数以震荡 为主。受产业因素催化的电力设备、电子、传媒等科技成长类行业以及受益于美联储降息的等行业表现 较好，军工、金融、消费等行业表现相对较弱。 二、市场展望： 经济指标向下，市场分化加剧 8月投资、消费、生产等经济数据普遍延续放缓趋势并弱于市场预期，显示经济压力趋于增加。投资端 固定资产投资当月增速连续两个月转负且降幅扩大，主要受地产、制造业、基建投资增速下滑的共同影 响；需求端社会消费品零售总额增速放缓，"以旧换新"政策效果边际弱化；生产端工业增加值和服务业 生产指数均维持5%以上增长，增速环比放缓，是经济增长的重要支撑。在经济下行压力增大的背景 下，市场结构明显分化，受益于市场风险偏好保持高位和产业催化不断增加，科技成长板块维持强势， 但交易拥挤度偏高；顺周期类资产偏弱，反内卷政策效果尚待观察，基本面和价格预期未显著改善。 从股债收益比、A股总市值/GDP、A股总市值/居民存款等指标看，市场相对历史水平仍有上行空间，居 民超额储蓄的多元化配置在逐步展开，美联储降息周期开启有望带动全球资金再平衡，国内市场将持续 ...

导读： 站在十字路口的GP与LP，是 追逐未来产业，还是重估传统价值？ 作者丨FOFWEEKLY 未来产业投资正经历前所未有的热潮。 然而，在这片繁荣之下，也有新的隐忧。"当所有资金都涌向未来产业时，我们需要思考：传统产业真的 失去价值了吗？" 而 于未来产业投资而言，从0到1的突破既是穿越技术迷雾的探索，也是当下未来产业投资浪潮中 的核心命题。 是 烫手的"未来"，还是坚实的"传统"？ 站在十字路口投资人，面临新的选择。 近日，在「2025母基金年度论坛暨第六届鹭江创投论坛」上， 主题为《未来产业的投资之路》的 圆桌论坛中， 多位活跃的LP及头部投资机构合伙人共同聚焦 "未来技术投资从0到1的突破"，拆 解其中的挑战与机会。圆桌环节，由嘉豪投资创始合伙人朱伟豪主持，成都交子投资集团董事长付 剑峰、湖北省科投集团党委副书记、总经理曾玉梅、扬州市国金投资集团创投公司总经理、战新基 金公司董事长郭慧君、云启资本创始合伙人毛丞宇、芯联资本创始合伙人袁锋、璞信资本副总经理 张胜利、光速光合合伙人孙健聚焦三大关键问题探寻答案。 嘉宾们指出， 当前未来产业投资的核心挑战集中于技术判断的专业性、长周期回报的容错机制、 人才 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that in October, the index is expected to remain in a strong oscillation within a range, with a focus on structural market trends and the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, suggesting investment strategies based on new policy expectations [1] Group 1: Investment Focus Areas - Emphasis on technology innovation and military security sectors, which play a crucial role in national strategic planning, have high funding consensus, and possess solid industrial narrative logic [1] - Attention to non-ferrous metals and new energy sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policy guidance and enhanced industry demand expectations [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall strategy remains focused on technology, while also monitoring technical characteristics to identify potential cyclical shifts, such as sudden negative news in the tech sector, policy changes, or underperforming earnings [1] - In extreme scenarios where the index breaks downwards, the banking sector is highlighted as having value for allocation [1]