Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with the index approaching a rating of 3.90 stars, indicating a potential for further growth in the near future [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - All market segments, including large, medium, and small-cap stocks, have seen increases, with small-cap stocks showing the most significant gains [2]. - The CSI 1000 and 2000 indices are now considered overvalued, while the CSI 500 and low-volatility indices are quickly approaching overvaluation [2]. - Since 2018, the CSI 500 low-volatility index has nearly doubled, driven by valuation increases, profit growth, and low-volatility rebalancing [2]. Group 2: Market Phases and Trends - The current bull market is characterized by structural trends, where not all sectors rise or fall together, indicating a rotation in market styles [2]. - The A-share market has seen a significant increase of over 60% since September 2024, with three notable upward waves contributing to a total rise of approximately 74% [2][3]. - Market liquidity is a key driver of the current upward trend, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the overall global liquidity environment [3][5]. Group 3: Liquidity Factors - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts through 2026 are expected to maintain a favorable liquidity environment [5]. - A significant amount of deposits, approximately 30 trillion yuan, is set to mature in 2026, with a portion likely to flow into financial assets, including stocks [8][10]. - The current low interest rates on deposits are expected to redirect some funds into the stock market, although not all will enter equities [10][11]. Group 4: Corporate Earnings Growth - Corporate earnings are recovering, with a notable increase in profits for the technology sector, which is leading the market [17][18]. - Some sectors, such as consumer goods, are still experiencing declines in earnings, indicating a mixed performance across different industries [20]. - Continuous monitoring of corporate earnings growth will be essential in 2026 to gauge market expectations [21][22]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - As the market approaches a rating of 3.90 stars, the optimal phase for stock fund investments may have passed, suggesting a shift towards asset allocation and profit-taking strategies [23][24]. - The focus for 2026 should be on managing asset allocation rather than aggressive stock fund purchases [24]. Group 6: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market has also returned to a rating of 3.90 stars, with updated valuations provided for various indices [25]. - The valuation table for Hong Kong indices includes metrics such as P/E ratios and dividend yields, offering insights for potential investors [26].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently rated at 3.9 stars, indicating a stable but cautious investment environment, with a notable decrease in the proportion of undervalued stocks [1][8]. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index experienced a slight decline, while small and mid-cap stocks showed minor gains [2]. - The ChiNext and STAR Market, representing growth styles, also saw slight increases [5]. - After a significant rise in previous days, Hong Kong stocks faced a downturn, although the Hang Seng Technology index remains at a normal valuation [6][7]. Valuation Insights - The valuation table shows a significant reduction in the green (undervalued) stocks, with the last instance of no green stocks occurring in early 2021 [3][9]. - The current market conditions suggest that if the market continues to rise, the proportion of red (overvalued) stocks will increase [11]. - Historically, during periods of 5-star ratings, the proportion of undervalued stocks was high, indicating a favorable investment environment [12]. Investment Strategies by Star Rating - At 5-star ratings, it is a phase of significant undervaluation, where various indices are typically undervalued, making it a good time for asset allocation and dollar-cost averaging [17][22][23]. - At 4-star ratings, while undervalued stocks decrease, some still remain, allowing for continued asset allocation but with a recommendation to limit stock exposure based on age [24][26]. - At 3-star ratings, the number of undervalued stocks significantly drops, and overvalued stocks begin to increase, making it less suitable for large investments in stock funds [27][28]. - Ratings of 2 to 1 star indicate late-stage bull markets, with 1-star ratings being rare and typically associated with extreme market conditions [34][36][39]. Future Outlook - The potential for future 5-star opportunities exists, with historical patterns suggesting that such opportunities may arise every 3-5 years across various asset classes [41][44]. - Long-term investment strategies should focus on maintaining a presence in the market, as opportunities for undervalued investments will continue to emerge [49].

Group 1 - The positive factors for stabilizing profits are increasing, including weak endogenous economic recovery, policy support, and potential improvements in PPI and real estate [4][11][18] - The PPI is expected to show marginal improvement due to seasonal demand and supply-demand balance driven by "anti-involution" policies [4][18][22] - The real estate market is experiencing a downtrend, but there are signs of potential stabilization, with some data showing slight improvements [4][28][29] Group 2 - The core factors influencing the height of the liquidity bull market are policies and stock market funds, with smaller bull markets focusing on profits while larger bull markets are driven by macro liquidity [4][11][18] - The capital market's institutional dividends can easily drive large-scale bull markets, and the "asset shortage" logic is expected to enhance the willingness to allocate funds to the stock market [4][18][22] - The regulatory policy adjustment rhythm will be crucial in the mid-term of the bull market, with significant changes in investor behavior expected as the market progresses [4][11][18] Group 3 - The style judgment indicates that small-cap growth stocks remain a trend, but there will be volatility in the mid-term of the bull market [4][29][31] - Long-term trends favor small-cap stocks, but there may be significant quarterly fluctuations influenced by new resident funds and growth-value style disturbances [4][31][32] - Growth style is likely to maintain a performance advantage over value style [4][31][32] Group 4 - Industry allocation suggests a foundation in finance, with technology as the main line and themes rotating actively [4][33][39] - Non-bank financials are gaining elasticity and have certain allocation value, while technology is expected to see a second wave of growth in the later stages of the bull market [4][33][39] - Key sectors to watch include power equipment, certain cyclical industries, and new consumption, focusing on improvements in ROE [4][39][42][44]

Group 1 - The core trend in the 2025 Chinese capital market indicates a shift from scale expansion to value return, emphasizing hard-core strength over conceptual speculation [2] - The experiences of industry veterans and new generation entrepreneurs reflect the necessity of risk awareness, essence adherence, and innovation embrace to navigate market changes [2] Group 2 - The resignation of Vanke's former CEO, Zhu Jiusheng, marks a significant event in the real estate sector, highlighting the vulnerabilities of high-leverage models amid industry downturns [4] - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun faces challenges in the automotive sector, where safety concerns and brand reputation are critical as consumer expectations evolve from mere production to quality [6] - BYD's Wang Chuanfu celebrates record sales of 4.6024 million electric vehicles globally, yet faces declining domestic revenue and profit, indicating the need for technological depth and operational excellence [8] Group 3 - The emergence of new entrepreneurs like Liu Jingkang, who launched a drone brand to compete with DJI, illustrates the survival imperative of differentiation in a competitive landscape [11] - Peng Zhihui's transition from Huawei employee to entrepreneur showcases the capital market's recognition of technical talent, but the challenge remains in converting technical prowess into sustainable profits [13] - Wang Xingxing's company, Yushutech, aims for an IPO, representing the maturation of the embodied intelligence sector, where commercialization and market expectations will dictate future success [15] Group 4 - Bubble Mart's founder Wang Ning experiences a volatile year, with significant revenue growth followed by a sharp decline in stock price, emphasizing the need to shift from reliance on hit products to ecosystem building [20] - Cambricon's Chen Tian Shi sees a turnaround with consecutive profitable quarters, driven by AI computing demand, highlighting the importance of technological barriers and ecosystem development in hard tech [22] - Liang Wenfeng's low-profile yet impactful contributions in AI through DeepSeek demonstrate that sustained innovation is crucial for success in the artificial intelligence era [24][25]

1月7日，恒生科技指数盘中跌超1%，中证港股通消费主题指数截至发稿涨0.02%，成分股中，上美股份 涨超2%，康耐特光学、奥克斯电气、毛戈平、小菜园、康师傅控股等跟涨。 相关ETF方面，港股消费ETF（159735）截至发稿跌0.12%，成交额超1600万元，换手率2.19%，盘中 交投活跃。 消息面上，据报道，2025年，情绪消费强势崛起，超万亿元的市场正在形成，成为消费市场的重要增长 极。从全球市场来看，情绪价值经济已形成潮玩、购物、文旅、宠物、科技、餐饮等众多赛道。伴随赛 道的多元拓展，年轻群体成为情绪消费主力。数据显示，超九成青年认可"情绪价值"，近六成青年愿意 为情绪价值买单。我国情绪消费市场规模快速攀升，从2022年1.63万亿元，升至2024年2.31万亿元， 2025年将达2.72万亿元，2029年将突破4.5万亿元。很多专家认为，在情绪消费领域，中国产品和服务有 独特的优势。 诚通证券在2026年消费板块展望中表示，政策提振，消费信心回升，板块有望企稳，或将迎来业绩修复 的成长空间。细分行业龙头抗压能力和市场竞争力强。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股 ...

来源：中信证券研究 China Themes 中国主题 2026年投资展望 展望2026年，预计中国宏观经济呈现结构分化下的温和修复态势，全年经济增速或达4.9%，出口保持 韧性，投资逐步回暖，商品消费短期承压。2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和修复 的特征，我们推荐商品>股票>债券。我们首推China Themes（中国主题）报告，聚合2026年大类资产展 望、宏观政策及产业投资看点，并梳理各行业重点公司，供投资者参考。 ▍大类资产：2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和修复的特征，我们推荐商品>股票 >债券。权益方面，我们预计2026年万得全A全年涨幅5%-10%；港股预计迎来业绩触底反弹+第二轮估 值修复的戴维斯双击行情；美股在中期选举年"财政+货币"双宽松背景下，料将延续基本面增长动能。 债券方面，我们预计10年期中债收益率全年运行区间为1.5%-1.8%，节奏先下后上；10年期美债收益率 或维持3.9%-4.3%的区间波动。商品方面，原油供需格局由过剩转向平衡，布伦特原油全年或在58-70美 元/桶区间震荡；黄金在流动性宽松与地缘风险支撑下延续强势但涨幅趋缓，有望冲击 ...

★航空业迎黄金窗口：供需格局罕见改善，票价、油价、汇率三大利好齐聚 ★整车承压下的亮点：汽车零部件全球化与重卡景气周期带来的超额收益 ★消费的"预期差"：高端与性价比两头旺，结构性景气被市场低估 本期会谈邀请数位买方机构的基金经理，对大盘、政策、以及后市投资机会等进行深度交流。 第一财经资讯2026-01-06 21:32:54 【本期重点】 ★2026，AI应用决战之年：个人通用Agent或是最大突破点与投资主线 ...

1. 今天回到3.9星后，主动优选组合也回到了正常估值，暂停发车。 月薪宝 （点击查看）还在低估，但距离正常估值很接近。 月薪宝底层股票部分，偏红利低波等价值风格，还有一些在低估，距离正常估值比较近。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，大盘回到3.9星。 这也是2023年以来，大盘首次回到3点几星。 也是咱们估值表日更以来，经历的第4轮3点几星（2015年的1星，2017年底、2021年初）。 2017年底、2021年初的3点几星，都是持续了几个月到大半年时间。 其实在2025年3季度，港股就率先进入到3点几星了。 A股4季度回调了一些，但最近两周连续上涨，非常强势，也回到了3.9星。 大中小盘股都上涨。 今天价值风格也出现上涨，自由现金流周一回到正常估值，周二继续上涨。 成长风格也上涨，其中科创板比较强势，创业板微涨。 港股也整体上涨。 恒生科技等领涨，也回到了正常估值。 其中，指数增强组合可能会先到高估（参考中证800市盈率，大约19倍到高估）。 出现类似机会，也会有止盈发车。 另外之前定投的单个指数基金，也陆续有一些接近高估。例如中证1000等。 如果再涨涨也会回到正 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of January 6, 95% of individual stocks have not broken their previous highs, despite major indices reaching new highs, indicating potential structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, All A-shares, CSI 300, and CSI 800 have all reached new highs, but only 5% of individual stocks have surpassed their previous highs [2]. - The previous high for individual stocks is defined as the highest closing price from September 24, 2024, to December 31, 2025, with most stocks still down by over 10% from these highs [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The sectors that have broken through previous highs are concentrated in a few segments, particularly in large financials represented by insurance, and sectors benefiting from price increases such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, petrochemicals, and construction materials [1][5]. - Other sectors that have seen new highs include military, machinery, and home appliance components driven by commercial aerospace and robotics [1][5]. Group 3: Sectors Near Previous Highs - Sectors that have not yet broken their previous highs but are close include technology growth (commercial vehicles, semiconductors, communication equipment), cyclical industries (steel raw materials, renovation materials), and consumer sectors (animal health, textiles, agriculture) [10]. - Industries with significant gaps to their previous highs include technology growth (motors, software, batteries, photovoltaics), dividend sectors (electricity, white goods, banks), and consumer sectors (food and beverage, social services, retail) [13].

受惠港股市场投资气氛炽热，个股轮证成交急增。当中，ATMX 轮证成交同比急增逾七成；泡泡玛特 (09992)、中芯(00981)及宁德时代(03750)等相关产品亦受追捧；美股窝轮方面，较多资金留意 Nvidia(NVDA.US)及特斯拉(TSLA.US)。 法兴上市产品销售部董事蔡秀虹表示，2025年轮证市场交投火热，投资者运用轮证特性捕捉波动市况， 并加强美股窝轮部署。该行进一步扩大美股相关资产的覆盖范围，新增博通(AVGO.US)及奈飞 (NFLX.US)窝轮，以满足投资者在美股"科技七雄"以外的交易需求。 fund （原标题：法兴：2025年香港窝轮及牛熊证总成交额达4.4945万亿港元 同比升55%） 智通财经APP获悉，法国兴业银行(法兴)表示，2025年香港市场的窝轮及牛熊证总成交额达4.4945万亿 港元，同比大升55%，创2021年以来新高，占大市成交约7.3%。其中，窝轮总成交额达1.903万亿港 元，同比升50%；牛熊证总成交额达2.5915万亿港元，同比升58%。 ...