其他品种方面，贵金属继续高位盘整，沪银盘中再度刷新历史新高至13700/千克以上的水平，最大涨幅超5%，但终盘涨幅有所回落，仅收涨2.46%。 多晶硅快速回落铂钯转跌低开 12月2日，多晶硅主力合约快速回落，低开后持续下行，以2.70%的跌幅领跌国内商品市场。广期所昨日对多晶硅期货PS2601合约的交易保证金标准及交易 限额作出调整，市场多头情绪快速降温。从基本面来看，光大期货表示，光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步下滑，组件端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需 求负反馈效应加剧。硅料厂延续强势挺价、叠加盘面近月挤仓和正套操作，近期现货不跌反涨。硅料厂延续减产降库不降价策略，市场量价分离、有价无市 特征愈发明确。随着交易所改变交易规则，近月挤仓风险出现下降，关注后续持仓量变化。 铂钯今日转跌调整，主力合约均跌超2%。虽然美联储降息预期将强，但此前的上涨已在盘面体现，白银在库存紧张下快速走高，但金价上涨动能有限，同 时日本央行的鹰派言论引发市场对全球流动性收紧的担忧，贵金属市场整体情绪有所回落。就铂钯自身而言，银河期货认为，铂金2025年总体供需处于偏紧 状态，铂金显性库存有去化表现，基本面有支撑，但近期广期所铂价与外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current state of various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into price changes, production rates, and market conditions. Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October 2025 is -2.0 percentage points, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,219 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Total inventory of five major steel varieties is at the highest level for the same period in four years [5] - Price changes this week include rebar up by 0.93% and cement price index up by 0.22%, while rubber decreased by 0.34% and coking coal by 3.14% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates have changed by -0.60 percentage points, -1.27 percentage points, and +8.1 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remain stable, with glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide gross profit at -4,026 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is 74.52% [6] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes this week include cold-rolled steel down by 0.25%, copper up by 1.77%, and aluminum up by 0.33% [7] - The gross profit for cold-rolled steel has turned from loss to profit, while the losses for other commodities have increased by 1.86% and 1.49% respectively [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 69.19%, a decrease of 1.88 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a new high since 2012, currently at 339,000 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.04% [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,500 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 17.59% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,430 yuan/ton, with estimated profit at 4,223 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 1.49% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.08 [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 490 yuan/ton, down by 50 yuan/ton [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,121.80 points, down by 0.09% this week [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.90%, an increase of 0.70 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index has increased by 1.64%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals, up by 3.46% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is 37.40% and 86.64% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]

Group 1 - Daqian Ecological announced the resignation of Chairman Zhang Yuan due to personal reasons, affecting his roles in the board and strategic committee [1] - Daqian Ecological, established in October 1988, focuses on urban renewal, rural revitalization, and ecological restoration [1] Group 2 - Haili Biological plans to use up to 500 million yuan of idle funds to invest in financial products issued by banks, brokers, trusts, and fund companies [1] - Haili Biological, founded in July 1981, specializes in in vitro diagnostic reagents and oral tissue repair and regeneration materials [1] Group 3 - Xianglou New Materials' application for a private placement of shares has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] - Xianglou New Materials, established in December 2005, is engaged in the research, production, and sales of customized precision stamping new materials [3] Group 4 - Zhuochuang Information has submitted an application for H-share listing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Zhuochuang Information, founded in April 2004, provides market data monitoring, trading price evaluation, industry data analysis, and research [4] Group 5 - Zhongwei Company plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 626,150 shares, representing 1% of the total share capital [5] - Zhongwei Company, established in May 2004, focuses on the research, production, and sales of high-end semiconductor equipment and related products [5] Group 6 - Jiarong Technology intends to raise up to 1 billion yuan through a private placement to acquire 100% of Hangzhou Lanran [6] - Jiarong Technology, founded in February 2005, specializes in membrane separation equipment and high-performance membrane components [6] Group 7 - Dameng Data's director and general manager Pi Yu has had his detention lifted by the local supervisory committee [7] - Dameng Data, established in November 2000, provides various database software, cloud computing, big data products, and related technical services [7] Group 8 - Huayang Co. has launched a 200-ton annual production project for high-performance carbon fiber [8] - Huayang Co., founded in December 1999, is involved in coal production, power generation, and renewable energy technologies [8] Group 9 - Saintno Biological's executives plan to collectively reduce their holdings by up to 37,600 shares, which is 0.024% of the total share capital [9] - Saintno Biological, established in July 2001, focuses on the research, production, and sales of peptide raw materials and formulations [9] Group 10 - *ST Dongyi is in the process of signing a comprehensive technical service agreement worth 635 million yuan [10] - *ST Dongyi, founded in November 1996, provides comprehensive home decoration services [11] Group 11 - Jiangxi Copper is attempting to acquire all shares of London-listed SolGold, with a recent offer of 26 pence per share [12] - Jiangxi Copper, established in January 1997, specializes in copper and gold mining, smelting, and processing [12] Group 12 - China Shenhua's subsidiary has successfully completed a 168-hour trial run of its power generation unit [13] - China Shenhua, founded in November 2004, is involved in coal and electricity production and sales [13] Group 13 - Baile Tianheng's subsidiary has received a milestone payment of 250 million USD from BMS [14] - Baile Tianheng, established in August 2006, focuses on innovative biopharmaceuticals and chemical preparations [14] Group 14 - Yulide's directors plan to reduce their holdings by up to 35,000 shares, representing 0.0313% of the total share capital [15] - Yulide, founded in December 2003, specializes in the research, production, and sales of testing and measuring instruments [15] Group 15 - Aters plans to establish joint ventures with its controlling shareholder to adjust its U.S. market operations [15] - Aters, established in April 2006, focuses on lithium-ion battery separator products and sterile packaging [15] Group 16 - Enjie Co. is planning to acquire 100% of Zhongke Hualian's shares, leading to a stock suspension [16] - Enjie Co., founded in April 2006, specializes in lithium-ion battery separator products and sterile packaging [16] Group 17 - ST Tianrui's controlling shareholder is planning a change in company control, resulting in a stock suspension [16] - ST Tianrui, established in July 2006, focuses on analytical testing instruments and environmental governance [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Steel**: The demand for five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, improving compared to October, but the overall demand intensity in November is weaker than the same period last year. Due to significant production cuts, the supply - demand gap for rebar is favorable with good de - stocking. However, for hot - rolled coils, production cuts are limited, with supply and demand basically balanced and slow de - stocking of high inventories. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the January contract is expected to converge. Considering the seasonal weakening of future demand and high plate inventories, the upward price drive is not obvious, but production cuts support steel prices, so prices are expected to fluctuate. The rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. The basis of rebar will strengthen, while that of hot - rolled coils is weak, and the spread between them will continue to converge. There is an arbitrage opportunity of going long on rebar and short on iron ore for the January contract [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated at a high level. The global iron ore shipment decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin declined slightly, iron water production decreased, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased slightly. The production of five major steel products continued to rise, inventories continued to decline seasonally, and the apparent demand declined. Port inventories increased, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, iron water production will decline seasonally this week, and the inventory contradiction of steel mills has improved significantly. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. Without new macro - drivers, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market. It is recommended to wait and see when the discount is repaired [4]. - **Coke**: Last week, coke futures fluctuated and declined. After mainstream coke enterprises proposed a fourth - round price increase, steel mills proposed a first - round price cut. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market expanded, coking profits were repaired, coke price adjustments lagged behind coking coal, coke enterprises increased prices, and coke production increased after price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, iron water production declined, steel prices fluctuated weakly, steel mill profits decreased, and there was a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills increased inventories, ports decreased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position, with the supply - demand situation of coke weakening. Coke futures were dragged down by the sharp decline of coking coal futures. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1500 - 1650 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Last week, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, and the spot market accelerated its decline, showing a pattern of futures - spot resonance decline. On the supply side, coal mine shipments worsened, some coal mines stopped production, the import of Mongolian coal increased, and the port inventory continued to rise. On the demand side, steel mills increased losses and maintenance, iron water production declined, coke production increased slightly after the recovery of coking profits, and the restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, ports, and coke enterprises reduced inventories, while coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills increased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1000 - 1120 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts also rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 17 yuan/ton to 3110 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Spot prices in East and South China remained unchanged or increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in North China it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts all rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 9 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton, the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar remained unchanged at 3231 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 3171 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, the profit of South China rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and other regional profits remained unchanged [2]. Production - The daily average iron water production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, among which electric - furnace production increased by 2.6 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, and converter production decreased by 4.4 tons to 176.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.0 tons to 319.0 tons, an increase of 0.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.2 tons to 10.4 tons, an increase of 12.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.8 tons to 227.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 tons to 320.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Carajás fines and Brazilian blended fines [4]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 38.1% for Carajás fines [4]. - **Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 24.5, a decrease of 2.0%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 to - 50.5, an increase of 1.9%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 26.0, a decrease of 1.9% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Brazilian blended fines. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased slightly, while the Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. Demand - The daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) remained unchanged at 20.0 days [4]. Coke Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1575 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1731 yuan/ton. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Demand - The iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.5 tons to 71.8 tons, an increase of 9.9%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.2 tons to 625.5 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, a decrease of 2.94% [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.0 tons to - 3.6 tons, an increase of 55.34% [7]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1067 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 1152 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 559 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.8% [7]. Supply - The raw coal production increased by 4.6 tons to 856.1 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The clean coal production increased by 4.9 tons to 438.8 tons, an increase of 1.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, an increase of 9.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.9 tons to 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 tons to 801.3 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.0 tons to 294.5 tons, an increase of 1.0% [7].

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View This week, the molten iron production decreased seasonally while the apparent demand was decent, reaching 888 million tons. Under the background of production cuts and inventory reduction, the contradictions in the steel market were not significant. The decline in molten iron production suppressed the price of iron ore. Although the supply - demand contradictions in the steel market were not prominent, iron ore and coking coal fluctuated weakly. It is expected that steel prices will experience a central decline within a range, with rebar referring to the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil referring to the 3250 - 3400 range. The unilateral driving force is not obvious. Attention can be paid to the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation of the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread of the January contract [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and contracts mostly declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of most steel products decreased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons, a decline of 0.9%, while the electric - furnace rebar production increased by 2.6 tons, an increase of 9.5% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decline of 2.3%. The rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 4.0% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 9.3, a decline of 0.5%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decline of 0.7% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Yesterday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin continued to decline, the molten iron volume decreased, and the steel mill restocking demand increased. The inventory of ports increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, the molten iron volume decreased this week, and the steel mill inventory contradiction improved significantly. With the current steel mill profit margin and inventory accumulation level, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. Without new macro - driving factors, it is expected that iron ore will be difficult to have an independent unilateral market. In the short term, it will operate weakly under the condition of futures discount repair and the latest decline in molten iron [5]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties increased slightly, such as the PB powder's spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.0 to 26.5, an increase of 12.8% [5]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decline of 6.8% [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 1.7 tons to 331.6 tons, an increase of 0.5% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Yesterday, the coke futures fluctuated and declined, and the night - session continued to be weak. The port trade quotation declined, and after the fourth - round price increase of mainstream coke enterprises was fully implemented, there was an expectation of price reduction. The coking coal futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend, and the spot price weakened, showing a pattern of futures - spot resonance decline. For coke, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market with a reference range of 1500 - 1650 and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage. For coking coal, the market supply has become looser, and it is also recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market with a reference range of 1000 - 1120 and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke futures and some spot varieties decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract price decreased by 12 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The coking profit increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton [8]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal futures and some spot varieties also decreased. The coking coal 01 contract price decreased by 14 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.2%. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 587 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. Some coal mines in Shanxi have stopped production, and the imported coking coal from Mongolia has increased significantly in customs clearance since November [8]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coking coal inventory in some sectors increased, while in some sectors decreased. For example, the fine - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 10.4 tons to 98.0 tons, an increase of 11.9% [8]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap calculation result increased by 1.5 tons to - 43 tons, an increase of 34.2% [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black industry have limited bright spots, and prices are under pressure. Glass and soda ash prices rebounded from low levels due to supply - side disturbances. As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, there may be positive news from the macro and policy fronts. Attention should be paid to the potential for short - term upward movements driven by improved macro sentiment [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil and increased shipments from non - mainstream mines. Port stocks increased, steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased, and the demand for restocking has not been significantly released. Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' profitability declined. The short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - The supply of scrap steel increased while demand remained stable. After the price decline, its cost - effectiveness improved, and the downside space is limited. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and relaxation of environmental protection measures, coke supply stabilized. In the short term, the rigid demand from steel mills remained strong, and the total inventory remained low. However, the cost support for spot goods continued to weaken, and the market expected price cuts. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - Domestic coking coal supply remained low, and its fundamentals have not significantly weakened. After the spot price correction, there is still an expectation of restocking for winter storage. The near - term futures contracts are affected by delivery, and the price is expected to oscillate. The far - term contracts are undervalued, and the fundamentals strongly support the price [3] Alloys - The cost of ferromanganese silicon provides support, but the market supply and demand remain loose, and the upward pressure on prices is significant. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6]. - The firm cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply and demand are still loose, suppressing the upward price space. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [6] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions for glass, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices; otherwise, prices may rise. The soda ash price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is weakening, and the steel inventory is higher than the same period last year. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production decreased month - on - month, and the profitability continued to decline. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply increased while demand remained stable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Coke**: Supply increased as profits improved, and cost support weakened. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals marginally weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. The near - term contracts are expected to oscillate, and the far - term contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13]. - **Glass**: Affected by the expected price increase from manufacturers, the sales improved. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, prices will be under pressure; otherwise, they may rise [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The cost provides support, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The cost supports the bottom, but the supply and demand are loose, and the futures price is expected to operate at a low level [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - This week, the seasonal decline in hot metal production and stable apparent demand led to a relatively balanced steel market. However, the weak performance of iron ore and coking coal caused steel prices to decline within a certain range. The expected price range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 yuan. There is no obvious unilateral driving force, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage operations of going long on rebar and short on iron ore in the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the January contract [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, iron ore futures fluctuated. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments decreased last week, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the steel mills' profit margins continued to decline, hot metal production decreased, and the demand for restocking increased. In the inventory aspect, port inventories increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventories decreased. Without new macro - driving factors, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market, and it is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coke futures declined with oscillations, and the night session continued to be weak. After the fourth round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was fully implemented, there are expectations of price cuts. The coking industry's profit has been restored, and production has increased. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, hot metal production has declined, and steel prices have fluctuated weakly, so steel mills have the intention to suppress coke prices. Coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend, and the spot market weakened, resulting in a pattern of simultaneous decline in futures and spot. The supply side has some short - term disruptions, and the import volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly. It is recommended to take a bearish view on both coke and coking coal in a volatile manner, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage for both [8]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan; rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 11 yuan, 11 yuan, and 6 yuan respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in North China and South China decreased by 10 yuan, while the price in East China remained unchanged; hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 14 yuan, 13 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 12 yuan, 2 yuan, and 12 yuan respectively. The profits of rebar in East China and North China decreased by 2 yuan and 12 yuan respectively, while the profit in South China decreased by 2 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, among which electric - furnace production increased by 2.6 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, and converter production decreased by 4.4 tons to 176.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.0 tons to 319.0 tons, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 9.3, a decrease of 0.5%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.2 to 888.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.8 to 227.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 to 320.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.0 to 26.5, an increase of 12.8% [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of PB powder and Jinbuba powder at Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan, while the prices of other varieties remained unchanged. The Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap increased by 0.1 to 104.9 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe increased by 0.8 to 107.4 [5]. Supply - The weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global weekly shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [5]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 1.7 tons to 331.6 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The monthly national crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [5]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventories increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventories of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 20 days [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and coke futures contracts 01 and 05 decreased. The coking industry's profit increased by 11 yuan to - 24 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased by 6 yuan to 587 yuan [8]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.4 tons to 851.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%, and the clean coal production decreased by 1.8 tons to 433.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [8]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills increased [8]. Inventory Changes - Coke total inventories increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. Coking coal inventories showed a mixed trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [8]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.5 tons to - 43 tons, an increase of 34.2% [8].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View of the Report The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. With the current apparent demand and production levels, inventory reduction can be sustained, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the current apparent demand is a pulse. The iron water output is -0.6 to 236.3 million tons, and the production is prone to decline and difficult to increase. Based on the upward revision of the apparent demand, under the weekly apparent demand of 8.74 million tons in November, the inventory pressure is not large, and the negative feedback of iron elements is not necessary. However, as the raw materials have not stabilized, the steel price is expected to decline within the range, with the rebar referring to the range of 3,000 - 3,200 and the hot-rolled coil referring to the range of 3,250 - 3,400 [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices in most regions declined, and futures contract prices also showed a downward trend [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged, while the cost of some steel products decreased. The profit of hot-rolled coils in some regions increased, and the profit of rebar in South China increased significantly [1] - **Supply**: The daily average iron water output decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 million tons, and the output of five major steel products increased by 1.9%. The output of rebar increased by 4.0%, with the converter output increasing by 5.4% and the electric furnace output decreasing by 4.6%. The output of hot-rolled coils increased by 0.7% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.0%, the inventory of rebar decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.0% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building material trading volume decreased by 8.0%, and the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 3.9%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 6.7%, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased by 3.5% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View of the Report The iron ore futures showed a relatively strong performance. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments decreased week-on-week last week, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the profit margin of steel mills decreased slightly, the iron water output decreased slightly, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased. It is expected that the iron ore will be difficult to have an independent unilateral market and will run in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see on a unilateral basis [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5.7%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.1% [4] - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also increased slightly [4] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrivals (weekly) increased by 24.2%, the global shipments (weekly) decreased by 6.8%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.3% [4] - **Demand**: The daily average iron water of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.3%, the 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 0.9%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 0.8%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.0% [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 0.3%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.8%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 4.8% [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View of the Report - **Coke**: The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, and the mainstream coke enterprises are expected to be proposed to reduce the price after the fourth round of price increase is fully implemented. The supply side shows that the coking profit has been repaired, but the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, and the start - up of some enterprises has decreased. The demand side shows that the steel mills' losses increase, the iron water output decreases, and the steel price fluctuates weakly, which has a certain suppression on the coke price. The inventory is slightly reduced, and the coke supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to view the unilateral trend as volatile and bearish, with the range referring to 1,550 - 1,700, and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [7] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed a volatile and weak trend, and the spot market showed signs of loosening. The supply side shows that some coal mines have stopped production for rectification, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The demand side shows that the steel mills' losses increase, the iron water output decreases, the coking start - up decreases slightly, and the restocking demand weakens. The inventory is slightly reduced. It is recommended to view the unilateral trend as volatile and bearish, with the range referring to 1,050 - 1,150, and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties decreased, and the futures contract prices also declined. The basis of some contracts changed [7] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties decreased, and the futures contract prices also showed a downward trend. The basis of some contracts decreased [7] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged. The raw coal output decreased by 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.4% [7] - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3%, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [7] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased slightly, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 12.3%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills remained basically unchanged, the port inventory decreased by 2.9%, and the coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged. The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 11.9%, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.9%, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.9%, and the port inventory decreased by 2.3% [7]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. With the current apparent demand and production level, inventory reduction can be maintained, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the current apparent demand is a pulse. The iron water output has decreased, and the production is likely to fall rather than rise. Based on the upward revision of the apparent demand, under the weekly apparent demand of 8.74 million tons in November, the inventory pressure is not significant, and there is little need for negative feedback on iron elements. However, as the raw materials have not stabilized, the steel price is expected to decline within the range, with the reference range for rebar being 3,000 - 3,200 and that for hot - rolled coils being 3,250 - 3,400 [1][3]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Price and Spread**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures have shown different degrees of decline. For example, the rebar spot price in North China decreased by 10 yuan to 3,210 yuan, and the rebar 10 - contract price decreased by 17 yuan to 3,155 yuan [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu decreased, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different changes. For instance, the profit of rebar in South China increased by 15 yuan to 108 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 5 yuan to - 62 yuan [1]. - **Supply**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products increased by 15.5 tons to 849.9 tons, an increase of 1.9%. The output of rebar increased by 8.0 tons to 208.0 tons, an increase of 4.0% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 44.2 tons to 1,433.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0%. The inventory of rebar decreased by 22.8 tons to 553.3 tons, a decrease of 4.0%, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.4 tons to 402.1 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.3, a decrease of 8.0%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 33.6 tons to 894.2 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 14.4 tons to 230.8 tons, an increase of 6.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 10.8 tons to 324.4 tons, an increase of 3.5% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore futures showed a relatively strong performance. In the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. In the demand side, the steel mill profit margin declined slightly, the pig iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mill restocking demand increased. The inventory of ports increased slightly, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. It is expected that the iron ore will be difficult to have an independent unilateral market and will operate in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see on a unilateral basis [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Price and Spread**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis of the 01 - contract for different iron ore powders showed different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased by 3.3 yuan to 846.9 yuan, an increase of 0.4%, and the basis of the 01 - contract for PB powder increased by 0.3 yuan to 49.9 yuan, an increase of 0.6% [4]. - **Spot Price and Price Index**: The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also increased slightly. For instance, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 3 yuan to 798 yuan, an increase of 0.4% [4]. - **Supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2,817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%, and the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3,278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11,130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 3.0 tons to 329.9 tons, an increase of 0.9%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 49.7 tons to 6,554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 149.3 tons to 7,199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory at 45 ports (weekly, compared with Monday) increased by 46.9 tons to 15,101.54 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 74.8 tons to 9,001.2 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1 day to 20 days, a decrease of 4.8% [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, and the spot price had a downward expectation after the fourth - round price increase. The supply side saw a decrease in the coking coal price in the Shanxi market, and the coking profit was somewhat repaired. The demand side was affected by the decline in steel mill profits and iron water output, which put pressure on the coke price. The overall inventory decreased slightly, and the coke supply - demand relationship weakened. It is recommended to view it as a unilateral volatile and bearish market, with the reference range being 1,550 - 1,700, and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coke [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed a volatile and weak trend, and the spot price declined. The supply side was affected by the temporary shutdown of some mines and the increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance. The demand side saw a weakening of restocking demand due to the decline in steel mill and coking plant production. The overall inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to view it as a unilateral volatile and bearish market, with the reference range being 1,050 - 1,150, and recommend the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal [7]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of various coke products decreased to different extents. For example, the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) decreased by 11 yuan to 1,613 yuan, a decrease of 0.7%, and the coke 01 - contract price decreased by 24 yuan to 1,643 yuan, a decrease of 1.5% [7]. - **Coking Coal - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of various coking coal products also decreased. For instance, the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased by 23 yuan to 1,200 yuan, a decrease of 1.9%, and the coking coal 01 - contract price decreased by 2 yuan to 1,085 yuan, a decrease of 0.1% [7]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 tons to 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.2 tons. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.4 tons to 851.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 1.8 tons to 433.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 tons to 62.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.2 tons [7]. - **Inventory Change**: The total coke inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 880.6 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.1 tons to 65.3 tons, an increase of 12.3%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 622.3 tons, a decrease of 0.0%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 10.4 tons to 98.0 tons, an increase of 11.9%, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 30.8 tons to 1,038.2 tons, a decrease of 2.9%, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 6.9 tons to 797.1 tons, an increase of 0.9% [7]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Change**: The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 5.5 tons [7].