Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the major indices and highlights the significance of free cash flow as a leading indicator for dividend distribution, emphasizing its predictive power for future dividend capabilities of companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 4, the three major indices continued to decline, with the National Securities Free Cash Flow Index experiencing fluctuations [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Xinhua Department Store, Tongcheng Holdings, Hangzhou Jiebai, and Hongqi Chain led the gains [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) followed the index's downward trend, with a trading volume exceeding 3.8 billion yuan, indicating active trading and frequent premium transactions [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - According to China Merchants Securities, free cash flow serves as an upstream indicator for dividend distribution and has strong forward-looking capabilities [1] - Companies selected based on historical free cash flow levels demonstrate better future actual dividend capabilities compared to those with historically high dividend payouts [1] - Stocks with high free cash flow and strong dividend intentions tend to perform better, suggesting that incorporating a dividend factor into the free cash flow strategy can enhance overall performance [1] Group 3: ETF Characteristics - The free cash flow ETF (159201) focuses on industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as home appliances, automotive, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and oil and petrochemicals, showcasing significant industry diversification [1] - This diversification effectively mitigates risks associated with single industry fluctuations, making it a favorable choice for core asset allocation [1] - The fund management annual fee is 0.15%, and the custody annual fee is 0.05%, both representing the lowest fee levels in the market [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing a strong bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for four consecutive months and successfully stabilizing above the 3,800-point mark, reaching a nearly ten-year high [1] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has consistently remained above 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a healthy and steady upward trend in the market [1] Structural Characteristics - The current market rally is characterized by distinct structural features rather than a broad-based increase, with the top three performing indices being the Wind Tail-End Stock Index (+54.82%), the North China 50 Index (+51.75%), and the Sci-Tech Innovation 200 Index (+50.79%) [1] - Small-cap and growth styles have significantly outperformed in this rally, demonstrating strong excess return capabilities [1] Market Drivers - The market's performance is driven by both economic conditions and liquidity, with structural highlights emerging despite overall macroeconomic pressure [3] - Key sectors attracting capital include artificial intelligence, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and solid-state batteries, which are in early development stages and exhibit clear growth narratives [3] Style Rotation - Recent trends indicate a clear rotation in market styles, with a notable increase in fund reallocation intentions [6] - Large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have shown relative strength, while small-cap indices like the National 2000 and North China 50 have faced pressure, reflecting a "fear of heights" sentiment among some investors [7] Potential Shifts in Leadership - Historical patterns suggest that mid-bull market phases often accompany style switches, with small-cap growth stocks now facing valuation pressures and trading congestion [9] - Large-cap value sectors, particularly in consumer, financial, and manufacturing industries, are expected to emerge as new market leaders due to their low valuations and strong earnings certainty [9] Factors Favoring Large-Cap Value - Large-cap value sectors are likely to benefit from upward revisions in growth expectations, as they are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions [9] - These sectors have experienced significant price corrections, making them attractive investments, especially given their stable operations and high dividend yields [10] Incremental Capital Flows - There is potential for incremental capital to shift styles, with foreign capital gradually increasing its share in Chinese assets, indicating a return of foreign investment [13] - Domestic investors are also expected to favor low-risk equity products, which may lead to a gradual shift towards large-cap value sectors [13] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to focus on absolute returns, with large-cap value sectors offering substantial upside potential and limited downside risk [16] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation across styles and sectors, particularly in industries with strong earnings resilience and stable dividends, such as food and beverage, agriculture, insurance, brokerage, and steel [16]

每日经济新闻 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.7%，石油石化行业占比为32.3%，前十大重仓股中涵盖了"三桶 油"——中国石油、中国石化、中国海油，权重占比合计超20%。 9月4日早盘，A股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，沪指低开0.15%，创业板指高开0.44%，深成指高开1.18%。 中证石化产业指数下跌约0.7%，成分股金发科技、蓝晓科技等领涨。 近期，A股市场有所调整，风格轮动加快，投资者该如何配置？信达证券指出，未来可能受益于风格高 低切的板块需满足低估值、低持仓、低涨幅三个要素，主要行业有：建筑装饰、石油石化、建筑材料、 房地产、煤炭、环保、基础化工等。 ...

剔除中国石油、中国石化之后，具体情况如下：经营情况方面，2025年H1，石油石化行 业实现营收8893.7亿元，同比-7.3%；实现归母净利润818.1亿元，同比-13.5%。2025Q2，实 现营收4444.5亿元，同比-9.1%、环比-0.1%；实现归母净利润376.4亿元，同比-20.6%、环 比-14.8%。盈利能力方面，2025年H1，石油石化行业销售毛利率21.3%，同比+1.52pcts；归 母净利率9.2%，同比+0.96pcts。2025Q2，销售毛利率20.6%，同比-0.58pcts、环 比-1.39pcts；归母净利率8.5%，同比-1.22pcts、环比-1.46pcts。 推荐标的及受益标的 以下为研究报告摘要： 化学原料及化学制品制造业增收减利，固定资产投资完成额同比下降 据国家统计局数据，2025年H1中国化学原料及化学制品制造业营业收入44635.9亿元， 累计同比+1.4%；利润总额1814.6亿元，累计同比-9%；固定资产投资完成额累计同 比-1.1%。截至2025年06月30日，上证综指收于3444.4点，较期初（2025年01月01日）的 3351.8点上涨2.76% ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The overall profitability of A-shares has turned positive for the first time after years of negative growth, with a net profit growth of 11% in Q1 2025, but a decline in Q2 [1][2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board, financial, oil, and petrochemical sectors have negatively impacted overall profitability, while the ChiNext Board has played a positive role [2] Financial Performance - Non-financial and non-oil A-shares showed a slight improvement in operating cash flow year-on-year, but the absolute scale remains low compared to the past three years, indicating unstable cash generation capabilities [1][5] - Capital expenditure has been negative for five consecutive quarters, but the decline has narrowed, with contract liabilities showing a year-on-year growth rate decline, reflecting insufficient recovery in terminal demand [1][6] Leverage and Financial Ratios - The ratio of interest-bearing debt to shareholder equity has slowly increased to a new high since 2022, while financial expenses as a percentage of total revenue have reached a historical low, indicating effective transmission of monetary easing policies to enterprises [1][7] - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial and non-oil A-shares was 6.44% in Q2, showing signs of stabilization, but total asset turnover has declined, indicating weakened ability to convert assets into revenue [1][8] Sector Performance - Industries with better year-on-year profit changes include agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, steel, building materials, electronics, and computers [3][9] - The TMT sector, including electronics and computers, performed relatively well on a quarter-on-quarter basis, while cyclical sectors experienced fluctuations due to the transition of old and new driving forces [3][10] Emerging Sectors - The AI sector has shown the best performance among new tracks, with high growth rates in optical modules and copper-clad laminates, while semiconductor equipment has seen negative growth [11] - In the pharmaceutical sector, innovative drugs and medical services have improved significantly, but medical device revenues and profits have declined [12] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The financial sector shows a stable overall performance, with city commercial banks and rural commercial banks leading the growth with 6.7% and 4.4% respectively, making them more attractive compared to large state-owned banks [18][19] - The insurance industry has shown stable performance with double growth in revenue and profit, indicating a positive outlook [20] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Industries with good cash flow and stable growth include education publishing, kitchen appliances, and construction, while sectors like pre-processed food and liquor need to be monitored for cash flow deterioration [21] - The current capital expenditure remains in negative growth, but the decline is narrowing, indicating potential recovery in the future [14] Market Dynamics - Large and mid-cap stocks have performed better than small-cap stocks, with mid-cap stocks showing stronger growth in both revenue and profit [22] - Different scales of enterprises show significant performance disparities, with large enterprises generally outperforming small ones in technology and manufacturing sectors [23][24] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the performance of various sectors, financial metrics, and potential investment opportunities and risks.

Core Insights - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are crucial for enhancing the real economy and driving high-quality development in industries, with significant policy support since the introduction of the "M&A Six Guidelines" on September 24, 2024 [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has seen 104 major asset restructuring disclosures, indicating a vibrant M&A market that is contributing positively to company performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Post-M&A - Companies that completed M&A transactions have reported substantial improvements in their financial performance, with notable revenue and profit increases [2] - For instance, *ST Songfa's* revenue surged to 6.68 billion yuan, a 315.49% increase year-on-year, and net profit rose to 647 million yuan, up 15646.55% [2] - Hanlan Environment reported a revenue of 5.763 billion yuan and a net profit of 967 million yuan, reflecting an 8.99% year-on-year growth [3] - Ningbo Fubang's acquisition led to a revenue of 366 million yuan, a 29.18% increase, and a net profit of 29.63 million yuan, up 89.52% [3] - Sailis achieved a revenue of 62.402 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.941 billion yuan, marking an 81.03% increase [4] Group 2: Strategic Focus of M&A - The current wave of M&A is characterized by a shift from mere scale expansion to strategic integration and transformation, focusing on quality improvement [5] - State-owned enterprises are actively engaging in resource integration, as seen in the acquisition of hydropower assets to enhance their renewable energy capabilities [5] - Blue Science High-Tech's cash acquisitions aim to strategically adjust internal resources and improve operational efficiency [5] Group 3: Technology and Innovation in M&A - The technology sector continues to see high levels of M&A activity, with companies like Hu Silicon Industry and Zhi Chun Technology making strategic acquisitions to enhance their capabilities in semiconductor and electronic materials [6] - The integration of smart logistics solutions through acquisitions is also a focus for companies like Beizhi Technology, which aims to strengthen its core business [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The M&A market in Shanghai is expected to maintain its vitality, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics, which will enhance the profitability and competitiveness of listed companies [6]

证券研究报告| 公司动态点评 2025 年 09 月 03 日 恒逸石化（000703.SZ） 1H25 公司业绩短期承压，文莱炼化项目稳步推进，聚酯产品差异 化加速 1H25 公司经营活动净现金流同比下跌。2025 年上半年公司经营活动产生的 现金流量净额为-1.81 亿元，同比-286.42%，主要系采购支付节奏影响，2025 年初支付原油采购款同比增加所致；投资性活动产生的现金流量净额为 -27.29 亿元，同比-297.74%，主要系支付项目工程设备款增加所致；筹资活 动产生的现金流量净额为 2.89 亿元，主要系融资相关保证金增加所致。期末 现金及现金等价物余额为 74.38 亿元，同比下降 27.94%。应收账款 73.19 亿元，同比上升 30.33%，应收账款周转率下降，从 2024 年同期 11.22 次变 为 8.44 次。存货周转率下降，从 2024 年同期 4.32 次变为 4.20 次。 "反内卷"政策推动下，长丝行业供需格局有望得到改善。2024 年 12 月， 中央经济工作会议提出要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企业行 为；2025 年 7 月，习近平主席在中央财经委员会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are crucial for enhancing the real economy, driving industrial upgrades, and promoting high-quality corporate development, with significant policy support since the introduction of the "Six M&A Guidelines" on September 24, 2024 [1] Group 1: M&A Impact on Financial Performance - A number of completed M&A projects have directly contributed to impressive financial results for companies in the first half of the year, becoming key sources of revenue growth [2] - *ST Songfa reported a total revenue of 6.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 315.49%, and a net profit of 647 million yuan, up 15,646.55%, following its acquisition of Hengli Heavy Industry [2] - Hanlan Environment achieved a revenue of 5.763 billion yuan and a net profit of 967 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.99% after privatizing Yuefeng Environmental [3] - Ningbo Fubang's acquisition of 55% of Electric Alloy led to a revenue of 366 million yuan, a 29.18% increase, and a net profit of 29.63 million yuan, up 89.52% [3] - Sailis reported a revenue of 62.402 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.941 billion yuan, marking an 81.03% increase after acquiring Longsheng New Energy [4] Group 2: Strategic Focus of M&A - The current wave of M&A is characterized by a focus on industrial integration and transformation, shifting from quantity expansion to quality enhancement [5] - State-owned enterprises are actively integrating upstream and downstream resources, as seen with Yuanda Environmental's acquisition of Wuling Power and Longzhou Hydropower, expanding into hydropower and renewable energy [5] - Blue Science High-Tech's cash acquisition of Blue Asia Testing and China Air Separation aims to strategically adjust resources within the state-owned enterprise group, enhancing operational efficiency [5] Group 3: Technology and Innovation in M&A - Technology-driven M&A remains robust, with companies like Hu Silicon Industry consolidating core silicon wafer assets and Zhi Chun Technology acquiring Weidun Crystal Phosphorus to enhance their semiconductor capabilities [6] - Aopu Mai's acquisition of Pengli Biology aims to improve CRO research and development capabilities, while Beizi Technology's acquisition of Suike Intelligent aligns with its focus on smart logistics systems [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The M&A market in Shanghai is expected to maintain vitality due to supportive policies and market-driven forces, enhancing the profitability and core competitiveness of listed companies [7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 153.12 points, a decrease of 0.6%, closing at 25,343.43 points [1] - The total turnover for the day on the main board was 267.647 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 58.1 points, closing at 9,050.02 points, a decline of 0.64% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 44.72 points, closing at 5,683.74 points, a drop of 0.78% [1] Blue Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings fell by 0.33%, closing at 598.5 HKD [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing decreased by 1.35%, closing at 437.6 HKD [1] - China Mobile increased by 0.12%, closing at 85.7 HKD [1] - HSBC Holdings declined by 0.6%, closing at 99.15 HKD [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings dropped by 1.41%, closing at 36.42 HKD [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties fell by 1.66%, closing at 92.1 HKD [1] - Henderson Land Development decreased by 1.35%, closing at 26.3 HKD [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China fell by 0.92%, closing at 4.31 HKD [1] - China Construction Bank decreased by 0.91%, closing at 7.63 HKD [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropped by 1.2%, closing at 5.74 HKD [1] - Ping An Insurance increased by 0.09%, closing at 56.5 HKD [1] - China Life Insurance fell by 0.77%, closing at 23.16 HKD [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - Sinopec fell by 0.92%, closing at 4.29 HKD [1] - PetroChina increased by 0.91%, closing at 7.74 HKD [1] - CNOOC dropped by 0.95%, closing at 19.87 HKD [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily tracking of stock index futures data on September 2, 2025, including the index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on the indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points differences and annualized costs of stock index futures roll - over [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - On September 2, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to close at 3858.13 points, with a trading volume of 1222.778 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14% to close at 12553.84 points, with a trading volume of 1652.214 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 2.5% with a trading volume of 598.514 billion yuan, opening at 7498.44, closing at 7313.88, with a daily high of 7499.6 and a low of 7258.59 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 2.09% with a trading volume of 541.494 billion yuan, opening at 7108.94, closing at 6961.69, with a daily high of 7108.94 and a low of 6909.72 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.39% with a trading volume of 196.061 billion yuan, opening at 2983.72, closing at 2992.88, with a daily high of 3006.46 and a low of 2967.52 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.39% with a trading volume of 196.061 billion yuan, opening at 2983.72, closing at 2992.88, with a daily high of 3006.46 and a low of 2967.52 [1]. 3.2 Impact of Sector Fluctuations on the Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 187.27 points from the previous closing price, and sectors such as communication, computer, and electronics significantly pulled the index down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 148.6 points from the previous closing price, and sectors such as computer and electronics significantly pulled the index down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index dropped 33.26 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as banks significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as computer, communication, and electronics pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 11.68 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as banks, food and beverage, and petroleum and petrochemicals significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as non - bank finance and electronics pulled it down [3]. 3.3 Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 79.56, IM01 had - 138.59, IM02 had - 271.34, and IM03 had - 446.93 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 74.3, IC01 had - 122.99, IC02 had - 224.75, and IC03 had - 369.83 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 10.05, IF01 had - 15.77, IF02 had - 30.9, and IF03 had - 51.13 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.65, IH01 had - 2.19, IH02 had - 1.79, and IH03 had - 0.25 [14]. 3.4 Points Differences and Annualized Costs of Stock Index Futures Roll - over - The document provides the 15 - minute average points differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts' roll - over, including data such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc. for different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [23][25][27][26].