Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Data Weekly Report [1] - Author: He Xiaoqin (Senior Analyst), Qian Jiayin (Contact) from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: February 1, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain [15] - Before the Spring Festival, the high - level volatility of PX increases, with limited downside space and a reverse spread of monthly differences. The PTA unilateral trend is strong before the holiday, with a 5 - 9 monthly difference reverse spread. MEG has a clear lower - level support, with limited upside rebound space [3][4][5] Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX monthly spread weakens, with PX internal and external markets generally rising first and then falling, and PXN回调. The gasoline inventory continues to rise, the aromatics blending oil demand is weak, and the aromatics blending oil economy weakens [22][23][28] - The PX - MX spread reached a high of 170 US dollars/ton during the week, and the Asian MX blending oil economy decreased significantly. The toluene disproportionation unit profit improved significantly [41][50] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Domestic production: The domestic production start - up rate is at a historical high. The 800,000 - ton PX unit of Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the domestic unit start - up rate rose to 89.2%. The December PX domestic production was 3.46 million tons [56][61] - Import: In December, the import volume was 930,000 tons. The Asian PX unit start - up rate this week was 81.2% (+0.2%). In November, PX imports from South Korea and Japan continued to increase, while those from Brunei decreased [63] - Inventory: In December, the Longzhong PX inventory was 4.45 million tons (+6) [89] PTA Valuation and Profit - The basis and monthly spread are weak. The PTA price has risen sharply, the basis has increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is weak due to increased supply pressure [96][97][101] - The PTA processing fee has been significantly repaired. The PTA spot processing fee has rebounded to 398 yuan/ton, and the polyester link profit is compressed by the upstream [105][106] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The start - up rate remains at 76.6% without significant change. The 1 - million - ton unit of Sichuan Energy Investment recently restarted, the 2.5 - million - ton unit of Dushan Energy Phase II is expected to be overhauled at the end of January, and the 1.25 - million - ton unit of Zhuhai Ineos is shut down for maintenance [108] - Demand: The terminal orders of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving show differentiation. Export orders are good, but some re - flow orders have not increased significantly. Enterprises are cautious about pre - holiday stockpiling, and most enterprises have taken holidays [4] - Inventory: The total inventory is at a low level, and the inventory accumulation intensity will be relatively large in February [128] MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral price is in a volatile market. The relative valuation continues to decline, and Satellite Petrochemical will switch to produce plastics in February [148][154] - The profit of coal - based units is - 110 yuan/ton (+20). Oil - based units continue to be in a loss pattern, with the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol at - 1217 yuan/ton (-160), the profit of externally purchased ethylene - based ethylene glycol at - 187 yuan/ton (+30), the MTO profit at - 1601 (+20), and the profit of ethane cracking - based ethylene glycol at 366 (+15) [157] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The start - up rate of units has risen to 74.4% (+1.3%). The 500,000 - ton unit of Sinochem Quanzhou and the 500,000 - ton unit of Ningbo Fude have restarted. From January to February, the ethylene glycol import volume will remain at a high level, with a monthly average of over 700,000 tons [166] - Inventory: Attention should be paid to the changes in units in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan. The port inventory data in East China is provided [170][176] Polyester Segment Start - up - The polyester start - up rate is 84.2% (-1.5%). Multiple sets of units have been overhauled, restarted, and some unit loads have been adjusted. The comprehensive polyester load has decreased. It is expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March [182][185] Inventory - The inventory has increased slightly, but the pressure is not great [190][192] Export - From January to December, the total polyester export volume was 14.61 million tons, +13.5%. The total export volume of polyester filament was 4.29 million tons, +10.6%; the total export volume of polyester bottle chips was 6.46 million tons, +10.1%; the total export volume of polyester chips was 1.34 million tons, +21%; the total export volume of polyester staple fiber was 1.7 million tons, +28.2%; the total export volume of polyester film was 0.82 million tons, +15.5% [193] Profit - The losses of filament factories have expanded, while the profits of staple fiber and bottle chips are acceptable [195] Terminal: Weaving, Textile and Apparel Start - up - The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 34% (-15%), and the start - up rate of texturing machines is 53% (-13%). Downstream texturing and weaving enterprises have entered the Spring Festival holiday season [217][219] Orders - Downstream orders are seasonally weak overall, but export orders are eye - catching, especially orders from the United States. Some enterprises reported that recent US clothing orders increased by 14% year - on - year, and Southeast Asian orders have also returned, but the overall order volume has not increased significantly [219] Inventory - The finished product inventory has decreased, and the grey fabric inventory has accumulated again. Weaving enterprises have stocked raw materials until the end of January [220][221] Retail and Export - China's textile and clothing retail: From January to December, it was 135.97 billion yuan, +3.5% [224] - China's textile and clothing export: From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 137.8 billion US dollars, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [230] - Overseas textile and clothing retail: The US and European clothing retail data have risen strongly. In October, US retail was 19.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. In 2025 from January to October, US clothing retail was 180 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In December, UK retail was 6.766 billion pounds, with a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to December, UK retail was 50.6 billion pounds, with a year - on - year increase of 6.23% [234][238] - Overseas textile and clothing inventory: It has declined slightly month - on - month [240]

| 第一部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 一、芳烃板块氛围走强，下旬 PX、TA 增仓上涨 | 3 | | | 二、乙二醇低位反弹，低价对供应变动较为敏感 | 8 | | | 三、临近春节聚酯检修停车增多，江浙终端开机下降 | 10 | | | 四、关于石脑油消费税对化工供给侧的影响 | 12 | | 第二部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 13 | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 聚酯研发报告 聚酯 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 聚酯淡季创新高，需求端跟进不足 【行情回顾】 1 月下旬，PX、TA 期货增仓上涨，估值在去年 12 月末拉升后伴随着一段 时间的震荡回调再次走高。淡季聚酯原料创新高，核心因素就是资金基于 TA 的 投产周期结束，随着行业产能扩张收尾，25 年虹港石化 3 期 250 万吨装置于 6 月投产，三房巷 3 期 320 万吨装置两条线分别于 7、8 月投产，独山能源 4 期 300 万吨装置于 10 月投产，全年新增产能累计 870 万吨，截至目前中国大陆地 区 PTA 产能基数调整至 9209 万吨。PTA2026年迎来投产真 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current major driving factor for crude oil is geopolitical factors. With the U.S. increasing its military presence in the Middle East and potential actions against Iran, short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by factors such as demand recovery, supply changes, and geopolitical situations. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For asphalt, with a slight decline in refinery production in February and weak demand in the off - season, attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and downstream negative feedback [5]. - Rubber prices are affected by production and consumption data, as well as cost - side factors. They are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - Methanol supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, a 3.50% increase; Brent March contract rose $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% increase; SC2603 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, up 13.9 yuan per barrel, a 2.98% increase. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday. The current major driving factor for oil prices is geopolitical factors, and short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. As of the week of January 26, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's inventory increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is supported by demand, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future. High - sulfur fuel oil has mixed factors. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed down on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A polyester factory in Shandong has shut down for maintenance, and a MEG device in Fujian has restarted. The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. According to the ANRPC December report, global natural rubber production decreased and consumption increased in December. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. Rubber prices are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends in different regions. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. MTO device load has decreased, and port inventory reduction is under pressure. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. Supply is at a high level as some upstream maintenance devices have resumed production. Demand will weaken as downstream factories approach the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is slowing down. PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the daily basis data of various energy - chemical products on January 30, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. Market News - Due to U.S. President Trump's consideration of military strikes against Iran, an OPEC member, crude oil prices rose by more than 3%. Trump is weighing targeted strikes against Iranian security forces and leaders to support anti - government protesters and create conditions for regime change [11]. - Trump has deployed the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East and warned Iran that the time to reach an agreement on its nuclear program is running out. The market is worried that U.S. military intervention will lead to an interruption in regional crude oil supply, and potential supply risks continue to support oil prices [11]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between fuel oil 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts, the spread between asphalt main and sub - main contracts, etc. [45][47][50] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - commodity contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, etc. [61][64][66] - **Production Profit**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as the production profit of LLDPE, the processing fee of PTA, etc. [68][70]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding the inclusion of 14 new futures and options products for foreign traders marks a significant step in the opening of China's futures market, enhancing its international influence and pricing power [1][2]. Group 1: Futures Market Expansion - The CSRC has added 14 new futures and options products, increasing the total number of designated products for foreign traders to 38 [1]. - The newly included products focus on sectors where China has a strong consumption market or complete industrial chain advantages, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy materials [2]. - The inclusion of nickel futures and options is particularly noteworthy as it is the first directly open non-ferrous metal futures product, indicating a key step in the internationalization of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2][3]. Group 2: Nickel Futures and Options - Nickel is a critical strategic material for emerging industries, and China, being the largest consumer and importer of nickel, provides a solid foundation for the futures market's opening [2]. - The opening of the nickel futures and options market is expected to enhance risk management capabilities for the non-ferrous metal industry and attract more participants for price formation and risk management [2]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Collaboration - The newly added products in the chemical sector include core polyester industry futures and options, which are essential for China's leading position in the global polyester industry [4][5]. - By 2025, China's polyester production capacity is projected to reach 89.035 million tons, accounting for 60% to 70% of the global total, indicating a robust market structure [4]. - The internationalization of the polyester sector is expected to improve the global pricing system and meet the diverse risk management needs of domestic and foreign enterprises [5]. Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Futures - The inclusion of lithium carbonate futures and options in the designated products is significant for the lithium battery industry, which is crucial for energy storage and electric vehicles [6][7]. - The introduction of these products is anticipated to provide transparent pricing and enhance China's influence in international lithium resource trade [6]. - The ability for domestic and foreign enterprises to engage in futures trading will facilitate risk management and stabilize operational profits amid price volatility [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding the inclusion of 14 new futures and options products for foreign traders marks a significant step in the opening of China's futures market, enhancing its international influence and pricing power [1][2]. Group 1: Futures Market Expansion - The CSRC has added 14 new futures and options products, increasing the total number of specific products available for foreign traders to 38 [1]. - The newly included products focus on sectors where China has substantial consumption markets or complete industrial chain advantages, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy materials [2]. - The inclusion of nickel futures and options as the first directly open non-ferrous metal futures product signifies a key advancement in the internationalization of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) [2][3]. Group 2: Nickel Futures and Options - Nickel is a critical strategic material for emerging industries, and China, being the largest consumer and importer of nickel, provides a solid foundation for the opening of the futures market [2]. - The nickel futures market has effectively played its role since its launch in 2015, becoming an important reference for domestic spot trade pricing and widely used for risk management [2]. - The opening of nickel futures and options aligns with industry demands and is expected to enhance risk management capabilities within China's non-ferrous metal industry [2]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Collaboration - The newly added products in the chemical sector include core polyester industry futures and options, such as paraxylene (PX) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) [4][5]. - China holds the world's most complete polyester industrial chain, with a projected polyester production capacity of 89.035 million tons by 2025, accounting for 60% to 70% of global capacity [4]. - The internationalization of the polyester sector is expected to improve the global pricing system and meet the diverse risk management needs of domestic and foreign enterprises [5]. Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Futures - The inclusion of lithium carbonate futures and options in the specific products is significant for the new energy sector, as lithium is a key raw material for battery production [6][7]. - Since its listing in July 2023, the lithium carbonate futures market has operated smoothly, providing a transparent pricing basis for spot trade and enhancing China's influence in international lithium resource trade [6]. - The availability of lithium carbonate futures and options will facilitate easier participation for domestic and foreign enterprises in the futures market, offering risk management tools against price volatility [7].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【C 国贸 期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/28 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5225 | 5235 | 10 | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 3843 | 3835 | -8 | 短纤:短纤主力期货涨38到6748。现货市场:涤 | | PTA收盘价 | 5258 | 5370 | 112 | 纶短纤生产工厂价格偏强运行,贸易商价格跟随 | | MEG收盘价 | 3938 | 3970 | 32 | 期货价格微涨,下游采买意向差,场内成交谨慎 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6735 | 6705 | -30 | 。 1.56dtex*38mm半光本日(1. 4D)涤纶短纤华东 | | | | | | 市场价格在6580-6800现款现汇含税自提,华北 | | 短纤 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2026/1/29 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/28 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 446. 7 | 460. 3 | 13. 60 | 成交情况: PTA:中东地缘局势加剧,原油行情上涨,成本推涨 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 2011.8 | 2025. 0 | 13. 17 | PTA。PTA现货供大于求,临近月底,未闻现货成交, 日均基差参考报盘、递盘评估。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.6197 | 1. 6054 | -0. 0144 | | | | CFR中国PX | 903 | 924 | 21 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 330 | 356 | 26 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - **PX**: The overall supply and demand of PX and PTA in Q1 are weaker than expected, with limited self - driving force before the Spring Festival. However, due to the expected tight supply - demand in Q2, the low - price support for PX is strong. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level with limited drive, with a short - term range of 7200 - 7600 and a long - term bullish view [1]. - **PTA**: Although the market is optimistic about the Q2 supply - demand, in the short term, with high valuation and weak reality, the drive is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the range of 5200 - 5500, and TA5 - 9 is recommended for low - position positive hedging in the medium term [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. In the near term, there is pressure on inventory accumulation, while in Q2, the supply is expected to shrink, and it is possible to reduce inventory. Strategies include EG5 - 9 positive hedging at low prices and holding the seller of put option EG2605 - P - 3800 [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains high, and demand decreases near the Spring Festival. The price of the spot is relatively firm. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the PF processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1000, and it is advisable to shrink the spread when it is high [1]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: With the implementation of maintenance plans, the domestic supply is expected to decline significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. PR2603 is recommended to pay attention to the support around 6200, and the processing fee on the main PR contract is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton [1]. LPG Industry - The report does not provide a clear overall view, but shows price increases in some LPG futures contracts and changes in inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [2]. Natural Rubber Industry - The supply is shrinking, and the cost support is strengthening. The demand for some export - oriented semi - steel tire enterprises is sufficient, but the domestic sales are slow. The inventory in Qingdao is decreasing. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still significant pressure at the 16500 level [4]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fluctuates in a narrow range. The supply is still high, and the demand is mainly for fulfilling orders. The inventory decreased last week but is still high year - on - year. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Glass**: The spot price is stable, and the market transaction is average. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price rebounded slightly, but the spot price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remains, with high inventory and weak demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the impact of downstream procurement and price fluctuations [8]. - **PVC**: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The supply - demand has not improved, with supply exceeding demand and inventory accumulation pressure. The cost support has increased, and the policy support is insufficient. The disk is expected to fluctuate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the 4820 - 5000 range [8]. Urea Industry - The futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price increased. The supply is sufficient, and the industrial demand is average, while the agricultural demand is warming up. The urea factory's pre - Spring Festival order - receiving pressure is not significant. The market is expected to fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival, and the main contract is recommended to focus on the 1760 - 1820 range [9]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices continued to rise sharply. Affected by the winter storm in the US, production decreased, EIA data showed a decline in commercial inventory and a small increase in refined oil inventory. The production of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan recovered slowly, and the US had a tough stance on Iran. Short - term positive factors still exist, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [11]. Methanol Industry - The futures price fluctuated in a narrow range at a high level, and the spot was purchased on demand. The supply and demand in the methanol market are both weak. The inventory in the inland area decreased, but high production and pre - Spring Festival inventory clearance limited the rebound. The port inventory increased slightly, and the MTO demand was weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and geopolitical risks [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded, but the port inventory increased unexpectedly. With the improvement of disproportionation profit, some devices are expected to restart, and the import is expected to increase. The price is expected to face pressure at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [15]. - **Styrene**: The load remains high under high profit, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken. The port inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to face pressure at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [15]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP are strong, driven by capital and geopolitical tensions. The static fundamentals show a decrease in supply and demand and inventory reduction, with low upstream inventory and strong price - holding intention. For PP, the supply pressure is relieved by maintenance; for PE, the pressure on standard products increases, and the downstream demand enters the off - season. Attention should be paid to spot transactions, inventory, and macro - sentiment [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Products**: POY150/48 price increased by 1.2%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, DTY150/48 price remained unchanged, etc. The cash - flow of some products changed, such as POY150/48 cash - flow decreased by 9.5% [1]. - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (March) increased by 1.23%, WTI crude (March) increased by 1.31%, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 2.8%, etc. [1]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6%, PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 0.8%, PX - naphtha spread decreased by 6.1%, etc. [1]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA05 - TA09 spread decreased by 62.5%, PTA spot processing fee increased by 4.8%, etc. [1]. - **MEG - related**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.2%, EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 5.7%, MEG port inventory increased by 7.9%, etc. [1]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 increased, and the spreads such as PG03 - 04 and PG03 - 05 changed [2]. - **LPG Outer - market Prices**: FEI swap M1 and M2 contracts, CP swap M1 and M2 contracts all decreased [2]. - **LPG Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 5.23%, LPG port inventory decreased by 1.53%, LPG port storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.36% [2]. - **LPG Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The main refinery operating rate increased by 1.99%, the PDH operating rate decreased by 14.81%, etc. [2]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased by 0.63%, the basis decreased by 15.49%, the price of Thai standard mixed glue increased by 0.66%, etc. [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.35%, 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.40%, 5 - 9 spread increased by 23.08% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in November decreased by 9.39%, the production of Indonesia decreased by 2.58%, the production of China increased by 20.88%, etc. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed, and the tire production and export volume in December increased [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07%, the futures inventory of natural rubber in SHFE decreased by 2.49%, etc. [4]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and South China glass prices remained unchanged, glass2605 and glass2609 prices increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 1.79% [7]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash prices remained unchanged, soda2605 and soda2609 prices increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 7.14% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 0.46%, the weekly production decreased by 0.46%, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.20%, etc. [7]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.38%, the soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.16%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 0.43% [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate showed different trends [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 0.7%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, etc. [8]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB Middle East port price decreased by 1.4%, export profit increased by 0.6% [8]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 4.8%, FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based price decreased by 1.7%, export profit decreased by 577.7% [8]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profit**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.9%, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.4%, the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 15.0%, etc. [8]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 2.3%, the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate remained unchanged, the printing and dyeing industry operating rate decreased by 3.8% [8]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rate**: The Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 4.5%, the profile operating rate increased by 5.4%, the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 4.5% [8]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory: Social and Factory Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory warehouse inventory increased by 5.5%, the Shandong inventory decreased by 0.4%, the PVC upstream factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.9%, the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.7% [8]. Urea Industry - **Futures Revenue Prices**: The 01, 05, and 09 contracts of urea increased, and the methanol main contract increased by 1.52% [9]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread decreased by 16.67%, 05 - 09 spread increased by 31.82%, UR - MA main contract spread decreased by 6.16% [9]. - **Main Positions**: The long - position of the top 20 increased by 0.99%, the short - position of the top 20 increased by 6.89% [9]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of anthracite small pieces, thermal coal pit - mouth, and port prices remained unchanged, and the synthetic ammonia price decreased by 0.09% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of urea in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, etc., showed different changes [9]. - **Cross - regional Spreads**: The spreads between Shandong - Henan, Guangdong - Henan, and Guangdong - Shanxi remained unchanged [9]. - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, and Guangdong changed [9]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine, compound fertilizers, etc., remained unchanged, and the price of ammonium sulfate increased by 1.35%, the price of sulfur decreased by 1.50% [9]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea increased by 2.64%, the coal - based urea daily production increased by 3.92%, the gas - based urea daily production decreased by 4.90%, etc. [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent increased by 1.23%, WTI increased by 1.31%, SC increased by 1.47%, and the spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 1.45%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.75%, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.08%, and the spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, Singapore gasoline, etc., changed [11]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2605 and MA2609 prices increased, MA59 spread decreased by 16.00%, Taicang basis decreased by 28.57%, etc. [13]. - **Methanol Outer - market Prices**: The lowest CFR China price decreased by 0.10% [13]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.12%, the social inventory increased by 0.05%, and the port inventory increased by 1.00% [13]. - **Methanol Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, the northwest enterprise sales - production ratio decreased by 3.28%, the external MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56%, etc. [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude and WTI crude prices increased, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 2.8%, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, CFR China pure benzene increased by 1.5%, etc. [15]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price increased by 1.3%, EB2603 and EB2604 prices increased, EB basis (03) decreased by 14.3%, etc. [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flows**: The cash - flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, etc., changed [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.7%, the styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 7.6% [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 2.5%, etc. [15]. Polyolefin Industry - **L2605, L2609, PP2605, PP2609 Prices**: The prices of these contracts increased [17]. - **Spreads**: L59 spread decreased by 54.84%, PP59 spread remained unchanged, LP05 spread decreased by 0.53% [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The East China PP拉丝, North China LLDPE spot prices increased [17]. - **Basis**: The North China LL basis decreased by 18.75%, the East China pp basis remained unchanged [17]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of East China LDPE, HD film, HD injection, etc., changed [17]. - **PE Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [17]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.58%, the PE social inventory increased by

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: No specific rating mentioned but market shows strength [2] - Polyethylene and Polypropylene: No specific rating mentioned, mixed signals in market [2] - PX and PTA: Positive in the first half of the year, but with inventory concerns around the Spring Festival [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Potential for short - term improvement in the second quarter, long - term pressure [3] - Short Fibre: Price follows raw materials, weak downstream demand [3] - Bottle Chip: Consider spread opportunities after the Spring Festival, long - term capacity pressure [3] - Pure Benzene: Short - term uncertainty, potential downward pressure with increased supply [5] - Styrene: Short - term price pressure [5] - Methanol: Short - term bullish, medium - long - term port inventory expected to decline slowly [6] - Urea: Price fluctuates within a range [6] - PVC: Monitor export and cost factors, inventory pressure exists [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak reality, potential for production cut, profit compression [7] - Soda Ash: High - altitude shorting strategy, long - term oversupply pressure [8] - Glass: Seasonal inventory build - up expected, follow macro sentiment [8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, cost changes, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal factors. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities, with some facing short - term uncertainties and others having long - term capacity pressures [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with low enterprise inventory and increased buying due to strong futures and downstream restocking [2] - Polyethylene has supply pressure and decreasing demand, while polypropylene has cost support and reduced inventory pressure but weak new orders [2] Polyester - PX and PTA may be bullish in the first half, but inventory may accumulate around the Spring Festival. Consider positive spreads in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol may improve in the second quarter but is under long - term pressure [3] - Short Fibre price follows raw materials with weak downstream demand [3] - Bottle Chip may have spread opportunities after the Spring Festival, long - term capacity pressure exists [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene price is strong but may face downward pressure with increased supply [5] - Styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term, with medium - long - term port inventory expected to decline [6] - Urea price fluctuates within a range due to demand and supply factors [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC has inventory pressure, and its price is affected by exports and costs [7] - Caustic Soda has high inventory and profit compression, with potential for production cuts [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash has inventory pressure and long - term oversupply, use a high - altitude shorting strategy [8] - Glass may have seasonal inventory build - up and follow macro sentiment [8]

融 研 究 院 聚酯：淡季中的强预期 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 业 金 期 货 弘 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 p 后市研判 风险点：原油 政策 装置变动 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 融 研 究 院 l 在强预期及资金涌入的带动下，聚酯产业链最近行情火爆。基于预期的好转和供需面的良好，PTA市场表现较为强势，PX的强势支撑和PTA 低开工、聚酯市场降负的缓慢共振。PTA价格在上涨的同时，也带动现货加工费和盘面加工费的纷纷走高。其中现货加工费提升至460元/吨 附近，环比25年末的300元不到的加工费大幅抬升。目前来看PTA市场负荷仍不高，季节性累库幅度不大。不过随着终端降负的加快，2月中 上旬聚酯也将迎来负荷低点，PTA若继续持续拉升或透支未来需求，后期市场或偏强震荡为主，但幅度料有限。 弘 业 期 货 金 l 乙二醇市场作为聚酯产业链中最弱的品种，在供需远期压力下持续走低。上周后半周沙特、科威特及美国等多装置检修停车，海外供应收 窄预期下，资金对于低估值的乙二醇产生做多意愿。国内卫星石化计划2月中转产 ...