1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in policy will continue to boost the terminal demand for chemicals. The prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The OPEC+ will hold a monthly video conference on January 4th to plan the organization's future production, and the market generally expects it to maintain the decision of "suspending the production increase in the first quarter". Geopolitical situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine are short - term supports for oil prices. The Chinese government has advanced the issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade - in, which will significantly boost styrene [2]. - The supply and demand of the chemical industry have been flat recently, with no major contradictions, and the overall trend will be volatile. The PTA spot processing fee has increased, and the operating enthusiasm of PTA enterprises will rise. The processing fee of downstream polyester filament has dropped to a three - year low, and the industrial chain profit has shifted. The spot liquidity of polyolefin has tightened, and the futures price will move sideways. The rebound of styrene is not optimistic due to the drag of raw material pure benzene and high inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. API data shows that US crude oil and refined product inventories continued to accumulate in the week of December 26th, and the total inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products is rising against the seasonal trend. The geopolitical prospects in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations. The decline in Venezuela's shipments is not obvious for now, but its crude oil exports are expected to decline later. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rises following the increase in crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the asphalt futures price. If there is a substantial supply disruption in the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory is starting to accumulate [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Be vigilant about the positive support for fuel oil from Iran's suspension of natural gas supply to Iraq. Although there are factors that support the high - sulfur fuel oil price, such as the potential resumption of fuel oil power generation in Iran and Iraq, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and there are medium - and long - term double negatives [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates [4]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions have emerged again, and combined with capital rotation, the upward trend in the pre - holiday market may continue [4]. - **Urea**: There is concentrated pre - holiday procurement, and urea is expected to be in a consolidation state [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average [4]. - **PX**: The expected supply - demand pattern of PX has weakened, and the price has回调 after rising. International oil prices are strong, providing cost support. However, due to the market's focus on supply increase expectations, the price has回调 after rising, and the terminal has slowed down its procurement rhythm [12]. - **PTA**: The maintenance of polyester plants is gradually being implemented. The supply - demand of PTA has weakened marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost in the short term [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The callback is limited, the processing fee is under pressure, and the willingness to reduce production is increasing. The cost support is strong, but the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the processing fee is under pressure [24]. - **Bottle Chip**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. The price of polyester bottle chips fluctuates following the raw materials, and the short - term driving force is limited [26]. - **Propylene**: The CP price in January has been raised, and the PDH is expected to reduce its operating rate, so the PL has strengthened slightly [4]. - **PP**: The CP price has been raised, and PP has strengthened slightly [4]. - **Plastic**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the holiday, and plastic is expected to fluctuate. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the fundamental support for plastic has increased slightly, but the driving force for both long and short positions is relatively weak [31]. - **Styrene**: The short - term market is dominated by sentiment, and the sustainability of export transactions should be monitored. The cost support from pure benzene is weak, but there are positive factors such as export orders and market sentiment stimulation. However, the supply and demand situation is not optimistic, and the upside is restricted [18]. - **PVC**: Short - sellers take profits before the holiday, and PVC is mainly in a fluctuating state. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand expectation has improved, but the high - inventory pressure still exists [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply in the short term [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given, along with their latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists different varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [284]. - **Energy Index**: On December 30, 2025, the energy index was 1093.97, with a daily increase of 0.49%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.18%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.91% [286].

能源化工期权 2025-12-31 能源化工期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to maintain an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - The uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US military strikes in Nigeria may impact the oil market. The increase in US oil inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also affect the oil price trend [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different energy and chemical products vary. For example, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil has some support; asphalt supply and demand are in a state of short - term stability and long - term uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose. WTI February contract closed up $1.34 to $58.08 per barrel, a 2.36% increase; Brent February contract closed up $1.30 to $61.94 per barrel, a 2.14% increase. SC2602 night - session closed at 436.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.3 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and military strikes in Nigeria raised concerns about supply, but the increase in US inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also had an impact. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, the market trading was light, and oil prices were expected to continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remained stable, and high - sulfur fuel oil had some support. Singapore was expected to receive more low - sulfur blending components, increasing local inventories. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU might follow the oil price, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts might put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The arrival of diluted asphalt in ports was stable in the short term, and domestic refinery raw material supply in January was not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Supply was expected to increase slightly at the end of the year but decrease in January. The demand in the southern region still had a tail - end effect, while in the north, it was mainly for stocking. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 prices declined on Monday. PX futures and spot prices also fell. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some polyester plants had device maintenance plans, and the MEG port inventory increased. The PX market was in a game between reality and expectation, and the ethylene glycol price was expected to oscillate after a rebound [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts declined. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The precipitation in the producing areas eased, and the peak - production season overseas had about one more month. The raw material price had some support, but the downstream tire demand weakened. The rubber price was expected to oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol spot prices in different regions were reported. The Iranian device shutdown would lead to a decline in arrivals in January, but the MTO device load also decreased. The port inventory increased as the unloading speed recovered. Methanol was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the prices of polyolefin products were given. The supply would remain at a high level, and the downstream demand was weakening. The polyolefin market was expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in different regions increased. The supply was at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand slowed down. The PVC market was a weak - reality and strong - expectation structure, and the price was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 29, 2025 and December 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in Florida to discuss a proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace agreement", but they did not reach an agreement on key issues such as territory and economic reconstruction. Russia planned to re - evaluate its position in the peace talks [10]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week. As of December 19, US crude inventory increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and the inventory at the Cushing delivery center increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. The refinery processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [12][13][14][18][20][22][25][26][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [29][34][35][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Price Spreads**: The report provides the price spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][49][51][53][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Price Spreads**: The report shows the price spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external market, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [57][59][68]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65].

Group 1: Polyester Industry Chain Price Trends - The prices of polyester industry chain products have increased as of December 25, with PX at 7318, PTA at 5040, polyester filament at 6450, polyester bottle chips at 5990, and BOPET at 7475 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of +7.88%, +8.39%, +2.79%, +5.27%, and +1.15% respectively compared to the previous week [1] Group 2: Production Capacity Insights - PX production is currently at 89% capacity, with no new capacity expected before Q4 2024. PTA has a 74% operating rate with significant pressure from 2025, and no new capacity is anticipated for 2026. Polyester filament is stable with a 90% operating rate and an annual expansion of 3-4% [1] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Forecast - From January to November this year, the apparent demand for polyester filament has only increased by 3.5%. Following a proactive inventory accumulation cycle in 2024, a destocking cycle is expected to begin in early 2025. By 2026, a return to an inventory accumulation cycle is anticipated, with consumption growth expected to return to the 5-10% range [1] Group 4: Profitability Analysis - Recent profitability trends show PX recovering from zero to 700 yuan/ton, PTA moving from cash flow losses to break-even, and polyester entering a state of slight losses. By 2026, PX profits are expected to expand further, while PTA is likely to maintain break-even, and polyester is projected to recover to a profit range of 100-200 yuan [1] Group 5: Lithium Battery Materials Sector - The lithium battery materials sector has seen a decline due to rumors of a 15% production cut by CATL in Q1 and speculation about 6F prices dropping below 110,000 yuan. However, ongoing negotiations indicate that pricing discussions are progressing as planned, and CATL's suppliers have stated that a 15% reduction is not feasible without losing market share [2] Group 6: Chemical ETF Performance - As of December 30, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 0.37%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) up by 5.21% and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up by 2.95% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a moderate improvement in consumption, with service consumption recovering ahead of the holiday, as evidenced by increased subway passenger flow in 18 cities and a positive shift in the Hainan tourism price index year-on-year [1] - In terms of investment, the issuance of special bonds has concluded, leading to an increase in physical workload, with asphalt operating rates rebounding and continuous improvement in building materials data [1] - The real estate sector shows a seasonal recovery in sales, with an increase in the proportion of second-hand housing, although overall prices and premiums remain low [1] Group 2 - In foreign trade, there is a divergence between rising domestic export freight rates and a decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [1] - Production continues to show differentiation, with emerging industries such as polyester, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic chains demonstrating strong resilience, while traditional cyclical industries like steel and some chemicals are experiencing a downturn [1] - Inventory levels are decreasing for coal and building materials, while PTA continues to deplete inventory and polyester shows a slight accumulation [1] Group 3 - Industrial product prices are generally rebounding, with oil and non-ferrous metals experiencing a rebound, and the South China index rising [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows structural differentiation, with food prices fluctuating [1] - In terms of liquidity, funding rates have shown slight fluctuations, and the renminbi continues to strengthen due to a weaker dollar and increased demand for foreign exchange settlements [1]

| //// } 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月29日 | | 丙烯 | 女女女 聚丙烯 | | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | な☆☆ | 纯苯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | PX | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | なな☆ | 乙二醇 | な女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | なな☆ | 瓶片 | なな女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | な☆☆ | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 玻璃 | | な女女 | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【聚酯周报】 市场预期强化，聚酯偏强运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | PX市场情绪仍受2026年一季度供应趋紧预期支撑，PX-石脑油价差扩大至360美元，同时PX-混合二甲苯价差升至244美元，激励PX生产商积极采购MX进 行转化。需求侧保持稳健，国内PTA维持高开工，受益于内需稳定及11月底起对印度出口恢复。汽油价差仍处高位对芳烃有所支撑。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 聚酯新装置投产推动聚酯负荷维持在高位，PTA消费量维持高位，并且市场囤货意愿增加，基差快速走强。 | | 库存 | 中性 | PTA的港口库存减少6万吨，主流聚酯工厂销售现货。 | | 基差 | 偏多 | PTA基差持续表现持续走强，PTA利润明显修复。 | | 利润 | 偏空 | PX与石脑油的价差到360美元，PTA的加工费扩大至360元左右的低位。 | | 估值 | 中性 | PTA价格明显回升，价格回到5000元以上，重整装置利润回升，海外PX装置的负荷回升。 | | 宏观政策 | | 12月25日至26日，全国 ...

【机构观点】 卓创资讯：12月PTA行情涨至下半年高点，本轮PTA行情冲高的主因是成本支撑、刚需偏好、PTA出口量较高。PX供需预期更加 乐观，华东一套重整装置检修在即，以及亚洲PX装置公布明年检修安排，PX行情冲高，12月PX月均价环比涨幅超过3%，无视原 油月均价下跌的影响，直接推涨PTA行情。下游刚需偏好，12月聚酯月均开工负荷仍然接近89%，助力PTA去库存。11月PTA出口 量35.89万吨，环比增加61.26%，加速PTA去库存，利好市场心态。 成本支撑、下游聚酯开工负荷仍然较高、PTA出口预期偏好等利好因素大概率推涨PTA行情，但终端需求将进入传统淡季，需求转 弱将抑制PTA涨势，预估后期PTA行情突破2025年高点之后续涨空间不大。 来源：曲合期货 12月29日午盘开盘，PTA 主力合走低，盘内跌超2%。PTA供需紧平衡、低库存与成本支撑形成共振，但供应回归预期及终端季节 性转弱正在缓慢兑现限制上行空间，2605期价运行区间4800-5300。中期来看，2026年PTA无新增产能，低加工费下老旧高成本产 能出清进程加快，行业供应收缩逻辑逐步兑现;且PX 2026年上半年供需缺口明确，成本支撑将 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 授授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 装置检修动态:宁波一套220万吨PTA装置预计24日复车,该装置11月下停车检修。 ·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 ...