Core Viewpoint - PTA is currently supported by cost factors, with market focus on the execution of maintenance schedules and the recovery of export orders. The polyester futures prices are expected to remain supported due to cost boosts, domestic "anti-involution" policies, and improved export expectations from India [1] Group 1: Cost Support - The oil supply surplus is expected to persist from Q4 to Q1 next year, leading to a weak and fluctuating international oil price. The transmission of oil prices to the downstream industry is relatively mild due to low PTA processing fees [2] - Domestic PX operating rates have slightly decreased to 86.8% as of November 14, down 3 percentage points week-on-week, while Asian PX operating rates fell to 78.5%, down 1.7 percentage points. This decline is due to maintenance at several PX facilities in Asia, tightening PX spot market supply [2] - The PX market has seen a strong performance, with PXN absolute prices rising to $257 per ton, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics [2] Group 2: Inventory Pressure - The PTA production capacity is expected to reach 91.715 million tons by the end of 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 9.5%. Recent new capacities have led to a relatively loose spot liquidity [3] - PTA social inventory is approximately 3.1561 million tons, showing a slight accumulation. The inventory structure is reasonable, with polyester factories maintaining raw material stock days at 13-14 days [3] - The recent removal of BIS certification for PTA and polyester products in India may accelerate inventory reduction if export demand materializes [3] Group 3: Polyester Production - The domestic polyester industry is projected to exceed 90 million tons in total production by 2025, with an expected average operating rate of 88.29%, providing rigid demand support for PTA [4] - Despite a high operating rate, the polyester industry has seen a decline in raw material stock levels and a weakening order atmosphere in the weaving sector [4] - The market is expected to face a balance between cost support and demand suppression, with PTA futures prices projected to fluctuate between 4500 and 4900 yuan per ton [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PTA prices rose due to concerns about reduced PX supply and extended maintenance of a 2.2 million - ton PTA plant in East China, with spot basis strengthening and average downstream polyester sales [2]. - PX prices rebounded due to factors like high gasoline profit rates and low pure - benzene prices, which limited PX production. PTA supply slightly shrank, polyester开工 remained stable above 90%, and domestic polyester exports were optimistic. The downstream weaving industry performed well after "Golden September and Silver October" [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports increased by 120,000 tons. New plant launches pressured ethylene glycol prices, and coal price increases did not strongly support costs. The Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price increased from 458.8 to 464.5 yuan/barrel, a change of 5.70 yuan [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Value increased from 1335.9 to 1336.4, a change of 0.58 [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: Decreased from 1.4007 to 1.3959, a change of - 0.0047 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Price increased from 827 to 832, a change of 5 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Increased from 256 to 264, a change of 8 [2]. - **PTA Main Futures Price**: Increased from 4670 to 4712 yuan/ton, a change of 42.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: Increased from 4610 to 4640 yuan/ton, a change of 30.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Increased from 176.1 to 188.4 yuan/ton, a change of 12.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Increased from 246.1 to 260.4 yuan/ton, a change of 14.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Basis**: No change, remaining at (72) [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: No change, remaining at 111,696 [2]. - **MEG Main Futures Price**: Decreased from 3907 to 3903 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: Decreased from (146.49) to (146.68) yuan/ton, a change of - 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: Decreased from 3952 to 3919 yuan/ton, a change of - 33.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Basis**: Decreased from 36 to 26, a change of - 10.0 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained at 87.39% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained at 74.55% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Decreased from 61.86% to 60.73%, a change of - 1.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained at 88.69% [2]. Product Data - **POY 150D/48F**: No change [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Decreased from 70 to 55, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **FDY 150D/96F**: No change [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Decreased from (175) to (190), a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **DTY 150D/48F**: No change [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Decreased from 150 to 135, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Long - Filament Sales Volume**: Increased from 41% to 65%, a change of 24% [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Increased from 6350 to 6370 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 185 to 190, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **Staple - Fiber Sales Volume**: Increased from 49% to 73%, a change of 24% [2]. - **Semi - Gloss Chip**: Increased from 5565 to 5570 yuan/ton, a change of 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Chip Cash Flow**: Decreased from (50) to (60), a change of - 10.0 [2]. - **Chip Sales Volume**: Decreased from 49% to 48%, a change of - 1% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Singapore, originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has postponed its restart, and the specific restart plan is unknown [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on energy and chemical options dated November 20, 2025 [1] - It covers various energy and chemical option types, including energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, etc.), polyesters (PX, PTA, etc.), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), and others (rubber) [2] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of multiple underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil (SC2601), LPG (PG2601), and methanol (MA2601) [3] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It presents the volume and open interest PCR of different option varieties, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlyings are analyzed from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations Crude Oil Options - Fundamental analysis shows that US crude oil inventories have different changes, with an increase in total, strategic, and commercial inventories and a decrease in Cushing inventories [7] - The price trend has been volatile, with different trends in each month from August to November [7] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility is above the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 540 and 460 respectively [7] - Recommended strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [7] LPG Options - The LPG market is firm, with supply tightening recently. The price trend has also been volatile from August to November [9] - Option factors show that the implied volatility has dropped to below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 4500 and 4250 [9] - Recommended strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [9] Methanol Options - The supply of methanol may increase, and the price has shown a weak trend since August [9] - Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 2500 and 2000 [9] - Recommended strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish put spread, a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination, and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [9] Ethylene Glycol Options - The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price has been weak. Option factors show that the implied volatility is below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 4500 and 4050 [10] - Recommended strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish put spread, a volatility strategy of shorting volatility, and a spot long - hedging strategy [10] Polypropylene Options - The production of polypropylene has increased, and the price has been weak. Option factors show that the implied volatility has dropped to around the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 7000 and 6300 [10] - Recommended strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish put spread and a spot long - hedging strategy [10] Rubber Options - The tire production capacity utilization rate has different changes, and the rubber price has been in a weak consolidation. Option factors show that the implied volatility has dropped to below the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 16000 and 15000 [11] - Recommended strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination [11] PTA Options - The PTA load has been adjusted, and the price has shown a rebound with pressure. Option factors show that the implied volatility is above the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 4700 and 4300 [11] - Recommended strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination [11] Caustic Soda Options - The production capacity utilization rate of caustic soda has changed regionally, and the price has been weak. Option factors show that the implied volatility is at a high level, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 3000 and 2200 [12] - Recommended strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish spread and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [12] Soda Ash Options - The inventory of soda ash has increased year - on - year, and the price has been in a low - level weak consolidation. Option factors show that the implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 1860 and 1100 [12] - Recommended strategies include a directional strategy of constructing a bearish spread, a volatility strategy of shorting volatility, and a spot long - hedging strategy of constructing a long collar [12] Urea Options - The enterprise inventory of urea has decreased, and the price has shown a rebound from low - level consolidation. Option factors show that the implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 1800 and 1600 [13] - Recommended strategies include a volatility strategy of selling a neutral call + put option combination and a spot long - hedging strategy [13] Group 7: Option Charts - The report includes various option charts for different underlying assets, such as price trend charts, trading volume and open interest charts, open interest PCR and trading volume PCR charts, and implied volatility charts for crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. [14][35][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and a slight accumulation of inventory under the pressure of new production capacity. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases some supply pressure, imported goods are abundant, and demand is generally weak except for agricultural films. The inventory of hedging merchants is gradually decreasing, the basis is strengthening, and inventory is being cleared. When the price is below 6800, the downstream's willingness to buy increases. The cost side is affected by the shock of crude oil and the strength of coal, and the PDH profit has continued to weaken this week. [2] Methanol - In the domestic market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has an unexpected maintenance. The domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, the marginal devices in the domestic market have suffered losses. In the port market, the gas restriction in Iran has been postponed, and the shipment has accelerated. As of November 19, Iran has shipped 885,000 tons, putting significant pressure on the port methanol market. With high inventory and the profit of imported methanol from Iran, the willingness to hold goods has weakened, and the price has declined while the basis remains stable. The demand side is based on rigid procurement. The market is currently trading on the logic of "weak reality", and the core contradiction lies in the high inventory in the port. The inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before the gas restriction in Iran. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The market has returned to a weak state, and the overall pattern of oversupply is still prominent. Fundamentally, the weekly production remains at a high level of around 750,000 tons, and the oversupply is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. The inventory of manufacturers has been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. - Glass: The spot sales have strengthened, and the high sales rate in some regions has continued to be above 100%. Consecutive price cuts have driven the middle and lower reaches to purchase. Although 4 production lines in the Shahe area were cold - repaired last week, there will be production lines restarting and igniting in the future, which will put pressure on the supply side. The latest deep - processing order days have improved slightly, and there is still some rigid demand support in the short term as November is the peak season for year - end rush work. However, in the medium and long term, at the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the sustainability of future demand. As the temperature in the north drops, outdoor construction will gradually stop, and the demand side will shrink after December, putting pressure on the glass price. The real estate is still in the bottom cycle, and the completion volume has decreased significantly. Therefore, in the oversupply pattern, the glass industry still needs to clear production capacity to solve the oversupply dilemma. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The supply - demand situation of the caustic soda industry still faces certain pressure. The purchasing enthusiasm of the main downstream alumina has decreased, so the support from the main demand side of caustic soda is weak, which suppresses the caustic soda price upwards. During the northern environmental protection control period, some alumina plants may have production reduction expectations. There is an overhaul expectation in the East China region, and the supply will decrease slightly. The price in this region may be relatively stable due to certain rigid demand support, but in the long term, the supply - demand still has pressure. The non - aluminum market is still sluggish, and overall, the supply - demand pressure is still relatively large. It is expected that the caustic soda price will fluctuate weakly. - PVC: The PVC spot market continues to fluctuate weakly. This week, maintenance and partial device load reduction have led to a decrease in production on a month - on - month basis, but it is still at a high level. Affected by local logistics, the market arrivals have decreased, and the social inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Next week, the supply - side operating rate will increase. The demand side is in the traditional off - season from November to January of the next year. As the outdoor construction in the north gradually decreases in winter, the overall real estate demand reduction still has a negative impact. In terms of exports, India has officially cancelled the BIS certification for imported PVC issued in 2024, which is beneficial for domestic PVC to enter the Indian market. However, there is an expectation of anti - dumping duties, and the Asian contract price for December is still to be observed next week. It is expected that the external demand will be difficult to increase. The overall demand side has limited support for PVC. The supply - demand is still in an oversupply pattern, and it is difficult for the price to form an upward drive. It is expected to continue the weak pattern at the bottom. [8] Natural Rubber - The supply side: Yunnan has encountered cold weather, which has accelerated the end of the tapping season in Yunnan. The rainy season in southern Thailand continues, and the price of overseas raw materials is high, which strongly supports the rubber price. The demand side: Currently, the overall demand is weak. Channels are cautious in purchasing and mainly focus on digesting inventory. Next week, the purchasing enthusiasm of some agents on an as - needed basis may increase slightly, which will drive the overall sales volume. However, the overall demand is weakening, and the actual increase in purchasing volume is limited. The market still mainly focuses on digesting inventory. In conclusion, the natural rubber inventory has entered the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. There is an expectation that the operating rate of downstream enterprises will further decline. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation. In the future, attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price is expected to decline. If the raw material supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to operate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Recently, many sets of pure benzene devices have overhaul expectations, but the import expectation remains high, and the overall supply may still be relatively loose. On the demand side, the load of downstream styrene has increased due to the restart of some devices, but some loss - making varieties have reduced production to maintain prices, and the domestic demand side has limited support. The port inventory has increased, and there are still many arrivals in the future, so the supply pressure of pure benzene is relatively large. After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the support from blending oil may weaken, but South Korea's aromatics have an export expectation to the US, and the US dollar price of pure benzene has increased. Overall, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is still relatively loose, and the limited support from the cost side may limit the upward space. It may fluctuate and consolidate. However, since the current valuation of pure benzene is low, future attention should be paid to device changes. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see for BZ2603. - Styrene: After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the blending oil demand may weaken. However, in November, the supply - demand situation of styrene has further improved. With the South Korean mixed aromatics trading, styrene has an export transaction expectation, and the port inventory has decreased. There are positive factors supporting styrene, and it will mainly fluctuate and repair in the short term. However, as the profit of styrene is repaired, the overhaul of some factories may be delayed. Coupled with the trial operation of new devices and the expected weakening of downstream EPS demand, it is expected that the upward space of styrene will be limited. In the short term, the price of EB01 may mainly fluctuate and consolidate. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Recently, the operating loads of Asian and domestic PX have decreased. However, the supply of Asian MX is abundant, and some factories rely on MX to supplement PX production, so the PX supply still remains at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the PTA price still has certain support this week. However, the spot floating price and monthly spread of PX are still weak, and the overall support from oil prices is limited. It is expected that the rebound space of PX is limited. Strategically, PX should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock. - PTA: As two PTA devices in East China are gradually under maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. According to the balance sheet, the supply - demand of PTA is in a tight balance in November, but the supply - demand of PTA is expected to be relatively loose from December to the first quarter of next year, and the upward drive of the basis is limited. In terms of absolute price, recently, the absolute price of PTA is relatively strong due to the support of blending oil demand and India's cancellation of BIS certification. However, the overall support from oil prices is limited, and the rebound space of PTA is still limited. Strategically, TA should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock, and TA1 - 5 should be treated as a rolling reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol: The operating load of ethylene glycol is at a high level. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol shipments is relatively concentrated in November, and the port inventory will continue to increase recently, and the basis will weaken. In addition, the inventory accumulation amplitude of ethylene glycol from November to December is expected to be relatively high, and the upward pressure on ethylene glycol is significant. Strategically, the seller of the out - of - the - money call option with an exercise price of no less than 4100 for EG2601 should hold, and EG1 - 5 should be reversely spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Although the spot processing margin of short - fiber has been significantly compressed recently, there is still profit at present, and the inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is not large, so the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the terminal demand has seasonally weakened in November. In addition, the cancellation of India's BIS certification has certain benefits for PTA and filament, but has relatively little impact on short - fiber. Therefore, under the short - term weak supply - demand expectation and cost - side support, it is expected that the absolute price of short - fiber will be under pressure, and the processing margin still has room for compression. Strategically, the unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin on the disk should be shorted at high levels. - Bottle - grade polyester: In mid - November, the Huarun device has both maintenance and restart. In addition, according to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of the new device of Dongying Fuhai has been postponed, and the domestic supply has not changed much. Considering that November is in the off - season of demand and the window period between the Spring Festival stocking, the demand side has insufficient support for bottle - grade polyester. The supply - demand of bottle - grade polyester remains in a loose pattern. Therefore, the social inventory of bottle - grade polyester will probably enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel, and PR will mainly fluctuate with the cost side. The processing margin of PR is limitedly boosted by supply - demand and will change dynamically with the raw material cost. Strategically, the unilateral strategy of PR is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin of the main contract of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton. [12] Crude Oil - Overnight, affected by the news that Russia and Ukraine may restart peace talks, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the oil price has declined under pressure. However, EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected, and the decline of the oil price has been slightly narrowed. Recently, attacks or sanctions caused by the Russia - Ukraine issue have had a short - term impact on the oil price. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern of crude oil is still weak, and the upward pressure on the oil price is significant. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel and the geopolitical dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. [14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have all increased, and the L15 and PP15 spreads have also increased. The spot prices of East China PP raffia and North China LLDPE have increased, while the North China LL basis has decreased significantly, and the East China pp basis has remained unchanged. The prices of some PE and PP non - standard products have remained unchanged, while the prices of some have decreased. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory and social inventory have decreased, while PP enterprise inventory has increased, and PP trader inventory has decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of PE devices has increased slightly, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has decreased slightly. The operating rate of PP devices and powder devices has increased, and the weighted operating rate of PP downstream has increased slightly. [2] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 have decreased, and the MA15 spread has increased. The basis of Taicang has remained unchanged. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line and Henan Luoyang have increased, while the spot price of Taicang Port has decreased. The regional spreads have changed significantly. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory have all decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of domestic and overseas upstream enterprises have increased, the production - sales rate of Northwest enterprises has increased, the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices has decreased, the operating rate of downstream formaldehyde has increased slightly, the operating rate of downstream acetic acid has decreased significantly, and the operating rate of downstream MTBE has increased. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China have remained unchanged, while the prices in East China, Central China, and South China have decreased. The closing prices of glass 2601 have decreased, and the closing price of glass 2605 has remained unchanged. The 01 basis has increased. The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest have remained unchanged. The closing prices of soda ash 2601 and 2605 have decreased, and the 01 basis has increased significantly. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased slightly, the daily melting volume of float glass has remained unchanged, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass has decreased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of glass factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash delivery warehouses has decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories have remained unchanged. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area have all decreased compared with the previous period. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda have remained unchanged. The market prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC have decreased. The prices of SHSEOS, SH2601, V2605, and V2601 have decreased, and the V basis has increased significantly. - **Export and Profit**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have some data unavailable, and some data have changed. - **Supply and Profit**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry and the sample operating rate in Shandong have decreased slightly, the operating rate of PVC has decreased, the profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC has remained unchanged, and the profit of Northwest integrated PVC has decreased. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have increased or decreased. The pre - sales volume of PVC has decreased. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong has decreased, the upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC has decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC has decreased. [8] Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex has increased, the full - latex basis has decreased, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber has decreased, the non - standard price difference has decreased significantly, and the prices of some raw materials have remained unchanged. The 9 - 1 spread has remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in September has changed, the production of India has increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires have changed slightly, the domestic tire production in October has decreased, the tire export volume in October has decreased, the import volume of natural rubber in September has increased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in October has decreased. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE have increased, the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao has decreased, and the入库 and出库 rates of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao have increased. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have decreased, the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene has remained unchanged, the price of CFR China pure benzene has increased, the pure benzene - naphtha spread and ethylene - naphtha spread have decreased,

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production, driven by high gasoline profit rates and low pure - benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester开工 remains stable with high load, and domestic polyester exports are optimistic. Downstream weaving shows good performance, and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly. New device commissions put pressure on prices, and although coal prices are rising, they do not strongly support the cost of ethylene glycol. The tariff reduction after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 458.1 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/17 to 458.8 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/18, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1362.9 yuan/ton to 1335.9 yuan/ton, a change of - 27.09 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4094 to 1.4007, a change of - 0.0087 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 831 to 827, a change of - 4; PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 256, a change of 2 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4692 yuan/ton to 4670 yuan/ton, a change of - 22.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4615 to 4610, a change of - 5.0 [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 172.2 yuan/ton to 176.1 yuan/ton, a change of 3.9 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 249.2 yuan/ton to 246.1 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.1 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 3938 yuan/ton to 3907 yuan/ton, a change of - 31.0 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 decreased from 3980 to 3952, a change of - 28.0 [2]. - PX开工率 remained at 87.39%, PTA开工率 remained at 74.55%, MEG开工率 increased from 61.17% to 61.86%, a change of 0.69%, and聚酯负荷 remained at 88.69% [2]. - POY150D/48F decreased from 6590 to 6585, a change of - 5.0; POY现金流 increased from 61 to 70, a change of 9.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F remained at 6840; FDY现金流 increased from - 189 to - 175, a change of 14.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F remained at 7865; DTY现金流 increased from 136 to 150, a change of 14.0 [2]. - 长丝产销 decreased from 45% to 41%, a change of - 4% [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6375 to 6350, a change of - 25; 涤短现金流 decreased from 196 to 185, a change of - 11.0 [2]. - 短纤产销 increased from 35% to 49%, a change of 14% [2]. - 半光切片 decreased from 5575 to 5565, a change of - 10.0; 切片现金流 increased from - 54 to - 50, a change of 4.0 [2]. - 切片产销 increased from 37% to 49%, a change of 12% [2]. Market Analysis - PTA market: PTA prices decreased slightly due to falling crude oil prices and cost reduction. PTA is in the process of de - stocking, and the spot basis has strengthened [2]. - MEG market: The ethylene glycol futures fluctuated weakly, the spot price in Zhangjiagang decreased, and the basis negotiation weakened. The inventory in East China ports increased by 120,000 tons [2]. Device Maintenance - A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Singapore, which was originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has postponed its restart time, and the specific restart plan is unknown [2].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心上移，其中 WTI 12 月合约收盘上涨 0.83 美元至 | | | | 60.74 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.69 美元 | | | | 至 64.89 美元/桶，涨幅 1.07%。SC2512 以 466 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 5.4 元/桶，涨幅 1.17%。新换主力合约 SC2601 合约收盘在 465.7 | | | | 元/桶，上涨 3.4 元/桶，涨幅为 0.74%。API 数据显示，上周，美 | | | | 国 API 原油库存+444.8 万桶，之前一周+130 万桶。上周 API 库 | | | | 欣原油库存-79 万桶。上周 API 成品油汽油库存+154.6 万桶、馏 | | | | 分油库存+57.7 万桶。国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 2025 年 10 | | | 原油 | 月汽油产量为 1345.7 万吨，同比增加 1.7%，1-10 月累计产 ...

能源化工期权 2025-11-19 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No related content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - supporting willingness [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with high coal prices squeezing profit margins, corporate production has slightly declined. Demand is weak, so prices may fall further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and low domestic prices. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, a short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with high supply and weak demand. Export expectations are weakening, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on price rallies in the medium term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, although the price may have bottomed out, high warehouse receipt volumes suppress the market. With seasonal demand picking up, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, there is high supply pressure and weak demand. High inventory levels persist, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand. There may be opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [25]. - For PTA, supply is increasing, and demand is facing challenges. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are rising, and inventories are building up. It's recommended to short - sell on price rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.00 yuan/barrel, a 0.43% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 42.00 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline, to 2558.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase, to 3247.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The Taicang price was down 10, Lunan was down 5, and Inner Mongolia was up 7.5. The 01 contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan, at 2030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 28. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, at - 123 [2]. Urea - **Market Data**: Shandong's spot price was up 10, Henan was up 10, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market was unchanged at 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was up 1, at - 74 [5]. Rubber - **Market Data**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. The expiration of November warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Exchange led to positive market expectations. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, down 0.84 percentage points from the previous week but up 5.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. New export orders were not expected to be high. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.63 tons, up 0.03 tons, a 0.03% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons [9]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract fell 81 yuan to 4520 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 319 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, down 2.2%; the calcium - carbide method was 80.8%, down 0.4%; the ethylene method was 73.3%, down 6.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, down 0.1%. Factory inventories were 32.2 tons, down 1.2 tons, and social inventories were 102.8 tons, down 1.3 tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5467 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6465 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton, with a basis of 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 110.75 yuan/ton, up 10.13 yuan/ton. The profit of the non - integrated styrene plant was - 471.8 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 2.65 tons to 14.83 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, up 0.21%. The PS operating rate was 55.40%, up 1.90%; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, down 2.32%; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, up 0.20% [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 115 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.24%, down 0.10%. Production enterprise inventories were 52.92 tons, up 3.90 tons, and trader inventories were 5.00 tons, down 0.01 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.49%, down 0.36%. The 1 - 5 spread of LLDPE was - 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6392 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.59%, up 0.33%. Production enterprise inventories were 62 tons, up 2.01 tons, trader inventories were 21.73 tons, down 1.13 tons, and port inventories were 6.69 tons, up 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.28%, up 0.14%. The LLDPE - PP spread was 393 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [22][23]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract fell 28 yuan to 6768 yuan. The PX CFR price fell 4 dollars to 827 dollars. The basis was - 14 yuan, down 1 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan, up 10 yuan. China's PX operating rate was 86.8%, down 3%; Asian operating rate was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some plants had maintenance or planned to reduce production. PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. In early November, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China, an increase of 1.8 tons year - on - year. At the end of September, inventories were 402.6 tons, up 10.8 tons month - on - month. PXN was 260 dollars, up 5 dollars; South Korea's PX - MX was 100 dollars, up 1 dollar; the naphtha crack spread was 102 dollars, down 4 dollars [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract fell 22 yuan to 4670 yuan. The East China spot price was down 5 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan. The basis was - 72 yuan, up 1 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 yuan, up 8 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. Some plants had maintenance or increased production. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. As of November 7, social inventories (excluding credit warehouse receipts) were 222.7 tons, up 2 tons. The spot processing fee was up 15 yuan to 180 yuan, and the futures processing fee was down 4 yuan to 230 yuan [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract fell 31 yuan to 3907 yuan. The East China spot price was down 28 yuan to 3952 yuan. The basis was 30 yuan, down 12 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan, down 5 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 71.6%, down 0.9%. Some plants had production adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. The expected import volume was 11.1 tons, and the export volume from East China on November 17 was 0.4 tons. Port inventories were 73.2 tons, up 7.1 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 785 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of steam coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester industries, covering their basic knowledge, production, trade, and market conditions. It highlights the high concentration of PTA and MEG production in Asia, especially in China, and the significant growth in domestic production capacity in recent years. The report also discusses the trade patterns, profit situations, and market trends of these industries [12][24][43]. 3. Summary by Directory PTA Basics - **Definition and Market Introduction**: PTA, or purified terephthalic acid, was the first chemical futures variety listed in China in December 2006. It is a raw material for polyester with end - uses mainly in textile, clothing, and soft drinks [12]. - **Storage and Transportation**: Mainly stored in packaging bags at East China's main port terminals, with storage areas along the Yangtze River, Hangzhou Bay, and Xiamen. Transportation is mainly by sea and inland waterways, with some short - distance transportation by road [14]. - **Industry Chain**: Produced from crude oil via PX, it is mainly used to produce polyester (PET). One ton of PET requires 0.855 tons of PTA and 0.332 tons of MEG. About 70% of PTA is used for polyester fibers, 24% for bottle - grade polyester, and the rest for film - grade polyester [19][20]. - **Production Capacity**: Global PTA capacity is mainly in Asia (nearly 90%), with China accounting for over 78% of Asia's capacity. As of November 2025, China's effective PTA capacity reached 9471.5 million tons [24]. - **Capacity Distribution**: Regionally concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with private enterprises being the main suppliers. Yisheng and Hengli account for 41% of the total capacity [27][28]. - **Import and Export**: China's PTA imports have decreased from 2.74 million tons in 2013 to 18,000 tons in 2024, while exports reached 4.42 million tons in 2024, mainly to other Asian regions and Russia [31]. - **Profit Situation**: From 2016 - 2019, the industry had high profits due to limited new capacity and downstream recovery. From 2020 - 2024, private large - scale refineries' concentrated production led to compressed processing fees and the elimination of some high - cost small - scale plants [36]. - **Trading Patterns**: Include long - term contracts (referencing CCF's daily average price with appropriate premiums/discounts), spot trading (futures + price - fixing), and derivative pricing methods (futures price - fixing + monthly/weekly average basis) [38]. MEG Basics - **Definition and Application**: Ethylene glycol (MEG) is an important petrochemical raw material, mainly used in polyester production. Globally, about 85% of MEG is used in polyester, while in China, over 93% is used in polyester [43]. - **Production Process**: The main synthesis routes are the ethylene route (including petroleum ethylene, ethane ethylene, and MTO ethylene methods) and the oxalate route. The ethylene method is the global mainstream, while China mainly uses the petroleum ethylene method and the coal - to - ethylene glycol oxalate method [50][51]. - **Profitability of Different Processes**: Coal - to - MEG's profit has improved significantly this year, with higher operating loads. Ethylene - based MEG has been operating below the break - even point, but losses have narrowed compared to the previous two years [54]. - **Production Capacity Development**: China's MEG production capacity has reached 30.075 million tons, with ethylene - based capacity accounting for about 64% and coal - based capacity accounting for 36% [58][62]. - **Production Distribution**: Ethylene - based plants are mainly in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning, while coal - based plants are in Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia [62]. - **Import and Export**: MEG imports peaked in 2020 and have since declined. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 25%, with the main import sources being Saudi Arabia, Canada, and the United States [65]. Downstream Polyester Basics - **PTA/MEG's Downstream Products**: The main downstream demand for PTA/MEG is polyester, which is used in textile, clothing, beverages, and film products. Filament has the largest share in polyester, followed by short - fiber and bottle - chips [69]. - **Short - Fiber Basics**: Polyester short - fiber is made from PTA and MEG. Its trade pattern is mainly from east to west and bidirectional north - south. The main production and sales areas are Jiangsu, Fujian, and Zhejiang, with transportation mainly by road, water, and rail [71][76][77]. - **Short - Fiber Industry Chain**: It is produced from crude oil via PTA and MEG, with end - uses in filling, non - woven, and spinning. In 2024, spinning accounted for 64% of direct - spun polyester short - fiber production [79]. - **Short - Fiber Production Capacity Distribution**: Concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. In recent years, short - fiber exports have increased significantly, with 1.318 million tons exported in 2024, a 9.4% increase year - on - year, and 1.255 million tons exported from January - September 2025, a 31% increase year - on - year [83][88]. - **Polyester Bottle - Chips Basics**: Made from PTA and MEG, used mainly for packaging. Sales are divided into direct sales (60% - 70%) and distribution (30% - 40%) [91][102]. - **Bottle - Chips Production Capacity**: Production capacity has increased rapidly, exceeding 20 million tons at the end of 2024, almost doubling since the end of 2022 [105]. - **Bottle - Chips Demand**: Global demand has been growing steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2015 - 2024. In 2024, the main downstream consumption areas were soft drinks (39%), exports (42.4%), sheet materials (15.8%), and oil bottles (2.9%) [108]. - **Bottle - Chips Export Trade**: China is the world's largest net exporter, with exports widely distributed. In 2024, the top five export destinations accounted for only 23% of total exports [112][113].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the geopolitical factors affecting crude oil pricing and emphasizes the importance of OPEC+ future policies. It also focuses on the progress of PTA's anti-involution efforts and the ongoing elimination and upgrading of outdated facilities in the petrochemical industry [2]. - The petrochemical index performed well this week, increasing by 2.29% compared to the previous week, with oilfield services showing the best performance within the sector, rising by 5.23% [3][2]. Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices increased, with Brent crude futures closing at $64.49 per barrel, up by 1.4% from the previous week. U.S. crude oil inventories rose, along with gasoline inventories [7][9]. - The latest data indicates that U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2,524 thousand barrels, while total inventories (including strategic reserves) rose by 3,322 thousand barrels [13]. Polyester - The prices of polyester filament yarn increased, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices reported at 6,600, 7,850, and 6,830 yuan per ton, respectively, showing price differences that increased by 135, 85, and 165 yuan per ton compared to last week [16]. - Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang varied, with FDY, DTY, and POY at 18.9, 23.8, and 12.2 days, respectively. The operating rate for filament yarn and downstream weaving machines decreased by 1.5% [19]. Olefins - The report notes that sample prices for polyolefins showed a slight decline, with current prices for PE and PP at 7,590 and 8,050 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 1.43% for PE [25]. - The total petrochemical inventory for polyolefins was reported at 640,000 tons, down by 25,000 tons from the previous week [25].