1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export and import growth rates in the first two months were significantly better than expected, but the growth rates in March may adjust significantly, and the export downward risk may increase after the second quarter [27]; - China's exports in 2026 are expected to perform well, with the export growth rate expected to reach around 17% in the first quarter under the neutral scenario [28]; - The Mideast situation has increased the volatility of major asset classes, and the conflict may develop into a "war of attrition" or a slight easing, with the trading logic transitioning from risk - aversion to stagflation [28]; - The downward space for certificate of deposit rates in the short - term is limited [29]; - The CPI is being repaired, the PPI's year - on - year decline continues to narrow, and the bond market is expected to be volatile in the long - term [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]; - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.2% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month but down from 50.4% in the same period last year [1]; - In January 2026, the social financing scale was 7220.8 billion yuan, much higher than 817.8 billion yuan in the previous month and 7054.6 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]; - In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, up from 0.7% in the previous month and - 0.7% in the same period last year; PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.2% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]; - In December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, down from - 0.5% in the previous period and 3.2% in the same period last year; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, down from 4.5% in the previous period but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1]; - In February 2026, the export amount increased by 39.6% year - on - year, up from 5.9% in the previous month and - 3.1% in the same period last year; the import amount increased by 13.8% year - on - year, up from 1.9% in the previous month and 1.6% in the same period last year [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - Since March, many banks, mainly local commercial banks, have collectively lowered deposit rates, and the long - term deposit rates have generally entered the "1 - digit" range. The deposit rates of small and medium - sized banks are expected to continue to decline but at a slower pace [2]; - On March 11, 32 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 36 had negative basis. The basis of Shanghai nickel, Shanghai tin, and Zhengzhou cotton was the largest, while that of apples, butadiene rubber, and live pigs was the smallest [2]; - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin and daily price limit of apple futures contracts 2604 and 2605 from March 16 [2]; - The US inflation data in February met market expectations, but the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iran situation was not reflected, and more data is needed to determine when the Fed will cut interest rates again [3]; - The energy price surge caused by the Iran war is reshaping the European Central Bank's policy expectations. The ECB may raise interest rates earlier than expected, and the price risk is upward [3]. Metals - In February, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of about $5.3 billion, with the total gold holdings reaching a record high of 4171 tons, and the total asset management scale reaching a record $701 billion [4]; - Peru has approved the environmental assessment report of Buenaventura's Trapiche copper project, with an expected investment of $3.4 billion [5]; - The Polish central bank maintains a gold reserve target of 700 tons [6]; - As of March 11, 2026, the silver holdings of the world's largest silver ETF decreased by 115.51 tons, while the gold holdings of the world's largest gold ETF increased by 3.71 tons [6]; - Indonesia is evaluating a policy to cut coal and nickel production, and a decision may be submitted in June or July [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The coal inventory of Indian power plants is 54.05 million tons, sufficient for about 24 days of consumption [7]. Energy and Chemicals - On March 12, Brent crude oil exceeded $99 per barrel, and US oil futures rose by more than 6%. It was reported that Iranian boats attacked two oil tankers in Iraqi waters [8]; - The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, and many countries, including the US, Japan, and Germany, also plan to release reserves to stabilize oil prices [8][16][17]; - Iran warns that it will implement a "serial strike" strategy and has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz. Western attempts to lower oil prices may fail [9]; - Iraqi oil ports have stopped operations. The EU warns that if oil prices remain high, inflation in the EU may exceed 3% this year [9]; - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth in the current and next years, but the impact of the geopolitical situation on oil demand is still uncertain [9]; - The US crude oil inventory in Cushing reached its highest level since August 2024 last week [9]; - The EU is considering measures to suppress energy prices, including setting a cap on natural gas prices [10]. Agricultural Products - After the Spring Festival, the domestic live - pig market has been in a slump, and the DCE live - pig futures price has reached a record low [11]; - In February, Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased by 3.94% month - on - month, production decreased by 18.55% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 22.48% month - on - month [11]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On March 11, the central bank conducted 26.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14 billion yuan on the day [12]. Important News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference closed on March 11, and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will close on March 12 [13]; - As of the end of January, the balance of inclusive small and micro - enterprise loans in China was 37.6 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 11.4%. The average interest rate of newly issued loans in January decreased by 0.16 percentage points compared with the average rate in 2025 [13]; - The People's Bank of China held a science and technology work meeting in 2026, putting forward requirements for scientific and technological work in 2026 [14]; - The National People's Congress Financial and Economic Committee proposed six suggestions for budget implementation and fiscal work in 2026, including actively and orderly resolving local debt risks and optimizing the debt structure of the central and local governments [14]; - Among nearly 1,800 "fixed - income +" funds, 94% had positive returns this year. The newly established "fixed - income +" funds in 2026 had a total issuance scale of 36.2 billion yuan [15]; - Since March, many banks have lowered deposit rates, and the deposit rates of small and medium - sized banks are expected to continue to decline but at a slower pace [15]; - The first batch of savings bonds in 2026 were in high demand and were quickly sold out [15]; - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government plans to increase the borrowing limit of the infrastructure bond plan and the government sustainable bond plan from HK$500 billion to HK$900 billion [15]; - US President Trump said that the military action against Iran is "about to end," but US and Israeli officials have not received instructions to stop [16]; - The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, and many countries plan to release reserves to stabilize oil prices [16]; - The US will release 172 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves, and will replenish the reserves by 200 million barrels next year [17]; - The US Trade Representative's Office plans to conduct a "301 investigation" related to forced - labor finished products, covering about 60 countries [17]; - The US government budget deficit in February 2026 was $308 billion, and the budget deficit from the beginning of the fiscal year to February was $1.004 trillion, a 12% decrease compared with the same period last year [17]; - Amazon issued euro - denominated bonds for the first time, with a scale of 14.5 billion euros, and plans to invest A$750 million in an automated logistics hub in Australia [18]; - There are major events in the bond market, including new defaults, credit rating changes, and bond redemptions [18][19]. Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China was weak, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds rising slightly. Treasury bond futures declined, and the 30 - year main contract led the decline. The inter - bank market liquidity was slightly tightened [21]; - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose, while others fell [21]; - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.34%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose by 0.05% [22]; - Most money market interest rates rose [22]; - Most short - term Shibor rates rose [23]; - Most inter - bank repo fixed - rate prices were flat or rose [23]; - The yields of some government bonds and financial bonds in the primary market were determined [24]; - European and US bond yields rose across the board [24][25]. Foreign Exchange Market - On March 11, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose by 18 basis points at the 16:30 close, and the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 65 basis points [26]; - In the New York market, the US dollar index rose by 0.32%, and non - US currencies showed different trends [26]. Research Report Highlights - CICC believes that the foreign trade data in the first two months were better than expected, but the growth rates in March may adjust, and the export downward risk may increase after the second quarter [27]; - CITIC Securities believes that China's exports in 2026 will perform well, with the first - quarter export growth rate expected to reach around 17% [28]; - Huatai Securities believes that the Mideast situation has increased the volatility of major asset classes, and the conflict may develop into a "war of attrition" or a slight easing [28]; - CITIC Securities believes that the downward space for certificate of deposit rates in the short - term is limited [29]; - Changjiang Securities believes that the CPI is being repaired, the PPI's year - on - year decline continues to narrow, and the bond market is expected to be volatile in the long - term [29]. Today's Reminders - On March 12, 215 bonds will be listed, 208 bonds will be issued, 120 bonds will be paid, and 156 bonds will be redeemed or pay interest [30][31][32]. Stock Market News - On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.78%, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.31%, and the market turnover was 2.53 trillion yuan. The new energy and chemical sectors performed well, while the military and rare metal sectors declined [32]; - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher and closed lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.24%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.11%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell slightly. Southbound funds had a net purchase of more than HK$3.4 billion, while Tencent Holdings had a net sale of more than HK$2.4 billion [32].

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 26.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 14 billion yuan for the day after 40.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [3][4]. - The interbank market showed a slight tightening, with the weighted average rate of DR001 rising over 4 basis points to around 1.37% [5][6]. - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was approximately 1.557%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7]. Key Financial Events - The National Development Bank plans to issue up to 35 billion yuan in financial bonds on March 12 [17]. - Amazon intends to issue bonds to raise at least 37 billion dollars to support its significant investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure [17]. Global Macro Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed the largest-ever release of oil reserves to stabilize soaring oil prices amid the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, exceeding the 182 million barrels released during the Russia-Ukraine conflict [15]. - European Central Bank officials expressed differing views on interest rate hikes due to the Iran situation, with some suggesting faster increases while others believe current rates should remain unchanged [15]. Investment Risks - Recent reports indicated various non-standard asset risks, including trust plans and financing lease disputes, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the market [19].

Group 1 - The overall bond market has shown a recovery trend since mid-January, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.8%, leading to decreased buying intensity from major banks, while non-bank institutions still prefer leveraged arbitrage strategies [2][14] - The growth target for 2023 has been revised down to a range of 4.5%-5%, marking a more pragmatic tone in fiscal policy, with a fiscal deficit rate set at 4% [3][20] - The net financing of government bonds for the year is expected to be 13.83 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 200 billion yuan compared to last year, which may alleviate supply concerns [3][25] Group 2 - The actual fiscal deficit scale for 2025 is expected to be nearly 600 billion yuan lower than the target, with the realization of the 30.01 trillion yuan general public budget expenditure target in 2026 requiring a significant adjustment of 2.05 trillion yuan [4][36] - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, with a significant amount of MLF and reverse repos injected into the market, maintaining liquidity despite a reduction in the scale of 3M reverse repos [5][40] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to find support around 1.8%, and if liquidity remains ample, there may be opportunities for long-term bonds to recover after adjustments [8][14] Group 3 - The current economic environment is still in a seasonal downturn, with the February PMI below the growth line, but the marginal impact on the bond market is limited [6][59] - The recent decline in the 1-year policy bank bond yield to around 1.5% reflects both the controlled liability pressure on banks and the potential tightening of interbank deposit self-discipline [5][52] - The overall fiscal expenditure growth rate for 2026 is expected to be significantly lower than that of 2025, indicating potential downward pressure on fiscal policy [39][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The war between the US and Iran may end soon, which has an impact on the oil market. The US is considering taking measures to ensure oil supply and lower prices, and the G7 is discussing responses to the oil price surge [2][14]. - The Chinese economy shows certain trends in macro - data, such as changes in GDP, PMI, CPI, PPI, etc. [1][14]. - The bond market is under pressure due to inflation concerns, and the exchange rate market also has certain fluctuations [19][25]. - The stock market, including A - shares and the Hong Kong stock market, has different performances, with some sectors rising and others falling [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP: In Q4 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of GDP at constant prices was 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and the same period last year's 5.4% [1]. - PMI: In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.2% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, the same as the previous month but lower than 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - Social Financing Scale: In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 7220.8 billion yuan, much higher than 817.8 billion yuan in the previous month and 7054.6 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Money Supply: In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 2.7%, 4.9%, and 9.0% respectively, with different changes compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - New RMB Loans: In January 2026, the monthly value of new RMB loans from financial institutions was 4710 billion yuan, higher than 220 billion yuan in the previous month but lower than 5130 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - CPI and PPI: In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years; PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [1][3][14]. - Fixed - asset Investment and Retail Sales: In December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7% [1]. - Exports and Imports: In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import amounts were 6.60% and 5.70% respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US - Iran war may end soon, causing a sharp drop in US oil prices, while Saudi Arabia's production cuts led to a sharp rise in oil prices in the Asian session. Iran warns that if the attacks on its infrastructure continue, oil prices will rise to $200 per barrel [2][14]. - The G7 finance ministers held a meeting to discuss responses to the oil price surge and decided not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being [2][15]. - In 2026, new legislative highlights include formulating and amending relevant laws for the market economy and the financial field, and strengthening legislative research in the field of artificial intelligence [3][16]. - The increase in energy prices is reshaping European interest rate trading, with the market expecting more interest rate hikes [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted trading limits, margins, and fees for some futures contracts [4]. - South Korea implemented the "oil price cap system" to stabilize domestic oil prices [4]. - Saudi Aramco sold crude oil in the spot market through tender, with a total listing volume of about 4.6 million barrels [4]. - Qatar Energy postponed the commissioning time of the North Field East expansion project to after 2027 due to the shutdown of the Ras Laffan plant [4]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The US is temporarily exempting some oil - related sanctions to ensure oil supply and lower prices, and is considering further relaxing sanctions on Russian oil [5]. - Qatar is committed to the stability of the global energy market but will take temporary preventive measures [5]. - Hungary called on the EU to lift sanctions on Russian energy [6]. 3.2.3 Metals - The London Metal Exchange plans to carry out major reforms, including re - evaluating storage requirements and adjusting warehousing rent policies [7]. - On March 9, 2026, the inventories of some domestic metal futures had different changes, such as a decrease in gold and silver inventories and an increase in aluminum, copper, and nickel inventories [7]. - The price spread of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange showed the largest inversion since 2022 [8]. - Ghana will implement a new gold royalty system [8]. - Four Chinese - funded nickel processing plants in Indonesia announced temporary shutdowns due to regulatory requirements [8]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - China has achieved the goal of mainly using domestic seeds for "Chinese grain" and will accelerate the replacement of new varieties [9]. - Thailand will freeze cooking gas prices until May [10]. - Brazil's state - owned oil company Petrobras kept domestic fuel prices unchanged [11]. 3.2.5 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The night trading of domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results, and coke fell 1.76% [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 9, 2026, the central bank conducted 48.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 86.5 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Important News - China's CPI in February 2026 increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [14]. - The US - Iran war may end soon, affecting oil prices [14]. - The G7 finance ministers discussed responses to the oil price surge and decided not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being [15]. - In 2026, new legislative highlights include formulating and amending relevant laws for the market economy and the financial field, and strengthening legislative research in the field of artificial intelligence [16]. - China's foreign minister called for an end to the war and ensuring energy supply stability [15][16]. - Some small and medium - sized banks in China lowered deposit interest rates, and some had an inverted long - short - term deposit interest rate phenomenon [17]. - The Bank of Korea will buy up to 3 trillion won of Korean treasury bonds [17]. - There were some bond - related events, such as the recruitment of restructuring investors, resumption of trading, cancellation of issuance, and redemption of bonds [17][18]. - Some overseas credit ratings were adjusted [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China adjusted significantly, with the yields of interest - rate bonds rising across the board. The bond market was under pressure due to inflation concerns [19]. - The exchange - traded bond market had different performances, with some bonds rising and some falling. The real - estate bond index fell, and the high - yield urban investment bond index rose [20]. - The convertible bond index fell, with some convertible bonds rising and some falling [20]. - Most money - market interest rates rose, and the yields of some financial bonds were determined through bidding [21][23]. - European and US bond yields had different trends [23][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted downwards. The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies had mixed performances [25][26]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that new policy - based financial tools have expanded significantly, and attention should be paid to their impact on investment and credit [27]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that price recovery and "price increases" are the core themes this year. The US - Israel - Iran conflict has a profound impact, and the trading logic has shifted from a risk - aversion logic to a stagflation logic [27]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the Middle East situation has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, which may push up domestic inflation readings but is not likely to be the main contradiction in the domestic bond market. The Middle East situation may be beneficial to the Chinese bond market [28]. 3.4 Stock Market News - On Monday, the A - share market opened lower and then recovered. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.64%. The oil and gas, coal sectors rose, while the computing power hardware and semiconductor concept stocks were under pressure [31]. - The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated significantly. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.35%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell slightly, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.54%. "Lobster" concept stocks rose sharply, and southbound funds had a record - high net purchase [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - From March 2 - 6, due to the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the bond market oscillated narrowly. Credit bond yields declined across the board, with medium - to long - term bonds performing better. The yields of 5 - 10 - year AA+ and AA and 5 - year AA(2) urban investment bonds dropped by 4 - 6bp, and the spreads narrowed by 2 - 4bp, while the spreads of 1 - 3 - year bonds widened passively by 1 - 3bp [1]. - Since 2026, in a volatile bond market environment, credit bonds have shown strong performance, with yields dropping significantly. High - elasticity credit varieties such as long - term general credit bonds and long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have achieved good holding returns. However, the current overall credit spreads are at relatively low levels, and the spread protection space for some long - term general credit bonds is thin [2]. - If there is no incremental positive news in the bond market, long - end interest rates may enter a state where they cannot decline further, and the volatility of high - elasticity varieties such as long - term credit and long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds may increase. If the capital interest rate remains stable after the Two Sessions, the leverage strategy can continue to be used to increase returns, as medium - and short - term credit bonds still have a certain carry trade space [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - From March 1 - 8, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive, with district - level platforms contributing the main increment. The issuance sentiment improved, and the issuance interest rates generally declined. In the secondary market, the yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board, with medium - to long - term varieties performing better, and the spreads showed a differentiated performance [27][31]. - In terms of broker transactions, medium - and low - grade varieties performed better, and some entities had active low - valuation transactions [35]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds - Since March, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds have increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment has improved, and the issuance proportion of 1 - 3 - year and over - 5 - year bonds has increased, while the issuance interest rates have increased across the board. From the perspective of broker transactions, the buying sentiment has warmed up, the proportion of medium - to long - term varieties in transactions has decreased, and the proportion of high - grade transactions has rebounded [37][39]. 3.3 Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - From March 2 - 6, there were no new issuances of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, the yields of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds generally declined slightly, with short - term varieties having a larger decline. The spreads widened passively, and bonds with a term of 2 years and above underperformed general credit bonds, while 1 - year bonds outperformed [42]. - From the perspective of broker transactions, the trading sentiment of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has significantly warmed up, and the term structure of transactions has changed in different ways for different types of banks [45].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On March 6, the capital market showed a situation where the capital side remained loose, the bond market weakened, the convertible bond market followed the rise, and the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities were differentiated, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally rising [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools, and expand the scale of re - loans from 500 billion yuan to 800 - 1000 billion yuan [4]. - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year, with the expenditure total, new government bond scale, and central transfer payments to local governments reaching new highs, and launching a package of policies to promote domestic demand [5]. - The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and optimize the refinancing mechanism [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will set up a national - level merger fund, expected to leverage over 1 trillion yuan of funds [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.4278 trillion US dollars, an increase of 2.87 billion US dollars from the end of January, and gold reserves increased for the 16th consecutive month [8]. - **International News** - In February, the US non - farm employment decreased by 92,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the average hourly wage increased, intensifying stagflation concerns [9][10]. - In January, US retail sales decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the first negative growth since October 2025 [11]. - **Commodities** - On March 6, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and NYMEX natural gas futures prices increased. COMEX spot gold also rose [12]. 3.2 Capital Side - **Open Market Operations** - On March 6, the central bank conducted 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 269 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan [14]. - **Funding Rates** - On March 6, the capital side remained loose. DR001 rose 4.94bp to 1.319%, and DR007 fell 0.58bp to 1.415% [16]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On March 6, the bond market weakened. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 0.50bp to 1.7880%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 0.25bp to 1.9540% [19]. - **Bond Tendering** - The 3 - year 25进出13(增11) was issued with a scale of 6 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.5543%, a full - field multiple of 4.26, and a marginal multiple of 1.74. The 30 - year 26附息国债02(续2) was issued with a scale of 34 billion yuan, a winning yield of 2.2756%, a full - field multiple of 5.15, and a marginal multiple of 2.1 [21]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities** - On March 6, the transaction prices of 6 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H3 万科 01" fell more than 24%, and several other bonds of Vanke rose [21]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Many companies such as Agile Group, Oriental Fashion, Lingnan Co., Ltd., and Sunac Real Estate announced debt - related issues [22]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes** - On March 6, the A - share market rose, and the convertible bond market also strengthened. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%, 0.19%, and 0.36% respectively [23]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On March 9, Changgao Convertible Bond will start online subscription. On March 6, Yuhetian's convertible bond issuance was approved, and several convertible bonds announced conditions such as approaching the conversion price downward revision and early redemption [28]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market** - On March 6, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities were differentiated. The 2 - year yield fell 1bp to 3.56%, and the 10 - year yield rose 2bp to 4.15%. The 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year yield spreads both expanded by 3bp [26][27]. - **European Bond Market** - On March 6, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally rose. Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK increased by 1bp, 4bp, 7bp, 5bp, and 9bp respectively [30]. - **Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on March 6, the daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [32].

Economic Growth and Employment - The government aims for an economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, with a focus on achieving better results in practice [4][5] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate is targeted at around 5.5%, with over 12 million new urban jobs expected to be created [4][5] Financial Legislation - In 2026, the government plans to draft several financial laws, including the Financial Law and Financial Stability Law, to enhance the regulatory framework for a high-level socialist market economy [6][7] - The focus of the new legislation will be on strengthening regulation, stabilizing expectations, promoting compliance, optimizing structure, preventing risks, and expanding openness [7] Capital Market Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to promote qualitative improvements and reasonable growth in the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [8][9] - Key goals include enhancing market resilience, improving regulatory enforcement, and increasing the quality and structure of listed companies [8][9] Short-term Trading Regulations - The CSRC has issued new regulations on short-term trading to facilitate long-term capital investment, effective from April 7, 2026 [10][11] - The regulations expand the scope of supervision to include various securities and aim to enhance market transparency and stability [11] Technology Insurance Development - A joint opinion from multiple government departments outlines 20 measures to accelerate the high-quality development of technology insurance, supporting major technological projects and innovation [12] - The focus is on optimizing insurance products and services related to key technology sectors, encouraging specialized operations in technology insurance [12] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is set at around 4%, with a deficit scale reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase in public budget expenditure [13] - The increase in fiscal spending aims to support employment, improve livelihoods, and promote technological innovation [13] U.S. Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm employment data for February 2026 showed a decline of 92,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [14][15] - This decline is attributed to factors such as large-scale strikes and extreme weather conditions affecting various industries [14][15] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of February, China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3.4278 trillion, with gold reserves rising to 74.22 million ounces, marking the 16th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [16] - The increase in reserves is supported by a stable domestic economy and a resilient export performance, despite external economic fluctuations [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market entered a window of speculation on monetary easing expectations last week, with interest rates showing a volatile trend of rising first and then falling. The yield curve may still have room to steepen. Short - and medium - term bonds are strongly supported by relatively loose capital interest rates, while long - term bonds lack a clear downward driving force. It is recommended to use the bullet strategy and maintain the portfolio duration between 3 - 5 years, and pay attention to the structural trading opportunities of 10 - year CDB bonds [2][90]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On March 5, the central bank announced a 3 - month (91 - day) 800 billion yuan repurchase operation. With 1 trillion yuan of 3 - month repurchases maturing in March, a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan was achieved. As of March 6, the outstanding scale of 3 - month repurchases was 2.7 trillion yuan [5]. - In February, the central bank injected 50 billion yuan of liquidity into the market through open - market treasury bond trading, 50 billion yuan less than in January [7]. - The 2026 economic growth target is set at 4.5% - 5%, with a fiscal deficit rate of 4%. New policy - based financial instruments worth 800 billion yuan will be issued, which is expected to boost fixed - asset investment [8]. - At the economic theme press conference on March 6, relevant departments elaborated on the macro - policy orientation for 2026. The NDRC, the Ministry of Finance, and the central bank will work together to amplify the "combination punch" effect of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies [10]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends - From March 2 to March 6, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, injecting 161.6 billion yuan in total, with 1.525 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.3634 trillion yuan. It is expected that 427.6 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn from March 9 to March 13 [14]. - Despite the large - scale withdrawal of base currency by the central bank through short - term reverse repurchases at the beginning of March, the capital market remained generally loose. DR001 was below 1.3% for three days during the week. As of March 6, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.388%, 1.492%, 1.319%, and 1.415% respectively, with changes of 4.78BP, - 1.54BP, 0.05BP, and - 8.85BP compared to March 2 [18]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 717.2 billion yuan, an increase of 263.25 billion yuan from the previous week. The maturity scale was 587.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 78.77 billion yuan from the previous week, with a net financing scale of 129.21 billion yuan, an increase of 342.02 billion yuan from the previous week [22]. - The issuance interest rates of inter - bank CDs decreased last week. The average issuance interest rates of 3 - month and 1 - year inter - bank CDs of state - owned banks decreased by 4.13BP and 1.42BP respectively; those of joint - stock banks decreased by 2.93BP and 2.19BP respectively [28]. - In the secondary market, most - term inter - bank CDs showed a downward trend supported by relatively loose liquidity [29]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - Last week, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance total of 606.484 billion yuan, a maturity total of 488.205 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 118.279 billion yuan. The issuance rhythm of treasury bonds and local bonds in the first week of March was slightly behind the same period [31]. - As of March 6, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2026 was about 0.83 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 2.02 trillion yuan, both higher than the average of the same period from 2022 - 2025 [32]. - The net supply of local bonds increased last week. Among them, 4 treasury bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 1 billion yuan; 30 local bonds were issued, with a net financing of 256.229 billion yuan; 22 policy - financial bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 136.95 billion yuan [40]. - As of last week, 0.8 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds had been issued, with long - term and ultra - long - term bonds accounting for about 92.32%. Regions with relatively large issuance scales included Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Henan [43]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Last week, long - term bonds showed a volatile trend in the speculation of monetary easing expectations during the Two Sessions, and the yield curve steepened. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds remained above 9%, and their investment value gradually became prominent [32]. - The turnover rates of the active 10 - year treasury bond (250022) and the active 10 - year CDB bond (250220) increased last week. The average daily trading volume of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250022) was 21.677 billion yuan, an increase of about 38.66% from the previous week, and its average turnover rate was 4.91%, an increase of about 1.53 percentage points. The average daily trading volume of the 10 - year CDB bond (250220) was 352.135 billion yuan, an increase of about 144.82% from the previous week, and its average turnover rate was 96.88%, an increase of about 55.67 percentage points [46]. - The average spread between the active 10 - year treasury bond (250022) and the second - active bond (250016) was - 0.04BP; the average spread between the active 10 - year CDB bond (250220) and the second - active bond (250215) widened compared to the previous week [48]. - The 10 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread reached 49.52BP, and the 30 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread widened to 99.54BP. The term spread may still widen [54]. - The long - term local - treasury spread narrowed last week, while the ultra - long - term local - treasury spread widened. As of March 6, the spread between the 10 - year local bond and the 10 - year treasury bond was 19.90BP, narrowing by 2.57BP from the previous week; the spread between the 30 - year local bond and the 30 - year treasury bond was 20.88BP, widening by 0.14BP from the previous week [57]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leverage trading was generally at a high level. In the cash market, large banks strengthened their selling efforts, with an increased preference for holding treasury bonds within 5 years. Small and medium - sized banks continued to take profits on treasury bonds within 10 years. Insurance companies increased their buying efforts. Securities firms continued to net - buy treasury bonds between 5 - 10 years and tried to increase their positions in policy - financial bonds between 5 - 10 years. Funds still preferred policy - financial bonds [63][73]. - In January 2026, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 119.30%, a decrease of about 0.07 percentage points from December 2025. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in January 2026 were about 111.11%, 191.81%, and 132.51% respectively [63]. - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase last week was 7.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.21 trillion yuan from the previous week. The average daily leverage trading volume was about 8.64 trillion yuan [68]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 5.97% week - on - week; the settlement price of wire rod futures decreased by 5.71% week - on - week; the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 2.04% week - on - week; the cement price index decreased by 0.37% week - on - week; the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 2.02% week - on - week [88]. - The CCFI index decreased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 4.75% week - on - week [88]. - The wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.53% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 5.02% week - on - week [88]. - The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.41% and 1.78% respectively week - on - week [88]. - The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB last week was 6.92 [88]. 3.6 Outlook for the Future - The yield curve may still have room to steepen. Short - and medium - term bonds are supported by loose capital, while long - term bonds lack a clear downward driving force. It is recommended to use the bullet strategy and maintain the portfolio duration between 3 - 5 years. Pay attention to the structural trading opportunities of 10 - year CDB bonds [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, is the dominant factor in the market. It has led to increased market volatility, a decline in risk appetite, a sharp rise in oil prices, and an increase in global inflationary pressures [4]. - The A - share market shows some resilience and independence, but as the US - Iran war continues, China may face rising foreign trade and raw material costs, and there are concerns about the suppression of risk - assets by liquidity changes in a stagflation scenario [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The Middle - East situation, with blocked transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, has caused a sharp rise in oil prices, increased global inflationary pressures, reduced the Fed's short - term willingness to cut interest rates, and increased the market's expectation of the ECB's interest rate hike [4]. - The unexpected US February non - farm payroll report has increased the risk of the US getting into a long - term war and the risk of stagflation, which is negative for the stock market and makes global bond yields more likely to rise [4]. - Overseas turmoil affects China's risk appetite, but the A - share market shows resilience. However, as the US - Iran war continues, China may face cost increases and liquidity risks [4]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global stock markets generally declined this week. In developed markets, the S&P 500 fell 2.02%, the German DAX fell 6.70%, etc.; in emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93% relatively resistant, while the Saudi All - Share Index rose 2.87% [6][7]. - MSCI global indices generally declined, with the order of decline being developed > global > frontier > emerging [7]. 3.2.2 Currency Market - This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound, reaching 99, up 1.54% from last week. The on - shore RMB depreciated 0.62% to around 6.90. Emerging market and developed - country currencies generally weakened [8]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - Inflation concerns have led to an upward trend in the yields of ten - year government bonds in major developed countries. In emerging markets, China's bond yield slightly declined to 1.78%, while India and Brazil's bond yields increased [13]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to a rapid rise in energy prices, with WTI crude oil rising 35.64% and natural gas rising 11.38%. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals have corrected [22]. - In the domestic commodity market, there are both gains and losses, with the order of performance being energy and chemicals > industrial products > black metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals [22]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes | Asset Class | Rating | Investment Advice | | --- | --- | --- | | Gold | Weak and volatile | The Middle - East situation has pushed up oil prices and inflation, reducing the Fed's rate - cut expectation, which pressures gold, but stagflation risk is positive for gold [24]. | | US Dollar | Volatile | The unexpected US - Iran war has strengthened the US dollar in the short term [24]. | | US Stocks | Bearish | High oil prices increase the risk of rising AI electricity and financing costs, and US stocks may continue to be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks [24]. | | A - shares | Volatile | The US - Iran conflict affects the market. Although China has relative advantages, there are concerns about the suppression of risk - assets by liquidity changes in a stagflation scenario [24]. | | Government Bonds | Volatile | If the market expects the war to end soon, the bond market should be slightly stronger and volatile. However, the high unpredictability of the war requires close attention to its progress and inflation risks [24]. | 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US GDPNow model predicts a Q1 growth rate of 2.12%. Retail sales are growing, and the employment market remains resilient [74]. - The US banking system's liquidity is still tight, and the credit spread of high - yield corporate bonds has risen. The market expects the first Fed rate cut to be postponed to September, with only one rate cut expected in 2026 [81]. - The US February non - farm employment was unexpectedly weak, but the service industry PMI continued to rebound [84]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market has a supply rebound faster than demand. There are expectations for incremental policies, but the path to improving expectations is unclear [90]. - The inter - bank market's repurchase rate and trading volume have changed, with the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week at 1.49%, 1.41%, 1.32%, and 1.41% respectively as of March 6 [93]. - Economic data shows a pattern of weakening in total, with supply stronger than demand in structure and domestic demand weaker than external demand [94]. - In January, PPI continued to recover while CPI declined. In December, import and export growth rates exceeded expectations [108][114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies this year, with policy synergy being a highlight. The capital scale in three aspects has reached new highs, and the central government has arranged 100 billion yuan to launch a package of fiscal - financial cooperation policies to boost domestic demand [18][2][16]. - The Fed's monetary policy outlook faces increased uncertainty due to a weakening labor market and rising geopolitical risks, and there may be a risk of stagflation in the US [33]. - The impact of the Two Sessions on the bond market is generally neutral. The bond market may continue to fluctuate, and future focus should be on changes in risk appetite, market expectations for interest rate cuts, and price recovery [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 slowed to 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in Q3 2025 and 5.4% in Q4 2024 [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing a decline [1]. - In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 7.2208 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The government will continue to implement more active fiscal policies this year, with the total expenditure exceeding 30 trillion yuan, new government bond issuance reaching 11.89 trillion yuan, and central government transfer payments to local governments reaching 10.42 trillion yuan [2][18]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange have adjusted trading limits, margin ratios, and handling fees for some futures contracts [3][4]. - A large amount of funds have flowed into oil and gas assets through ETFs and linked funds, but the "return dilution" phenomenon has reappeared [5]. 3.2.2 Metals - On March 8, the retail prices of pure gold jewelry of major domestic brands were around 1,583 - 1,590 yuan per gram, and some brands have announced or plan to raise prices [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.4278 trillion US dollars, and the central bank's gold reserves increased by 300,000 ounces month - on - month [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel, and Minerals - The coking coal market in February 2026 showed a weak and volatile trend, and in March, the supply - demand fundamentals improved, but prices may fluctuate rather than rise unilaterally [9]. - Due to the reduction in nickel ore production quotas, Indonesia's nickel processing capacity utilization rate may drop to 70 - 75% in 2026, and nickel ore imports are expected to increase significantly [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices will be raised at 24:00 on March 9. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices have reached record weekly highs [9]. - Due to the conflict in Iran, major oil - producing countries have cut production, and the prices of crude oil and natural gas have risen [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In February 2026, the sales volume of pig products of three listed pig enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year performance varied [13]. - Ukraine's grain exports for the 2026/27 season are expected to include 14 million tons of wheat, 25 million tons of corn, and 2.5 million tons of barley [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature in the central bank's open market [15]. - The central bank carried out 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on March 6, with a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan on that day [15]. 3.3.2 Important News - Institutions predict that the Spring Festival effect will drive a significant year - on - year rebound in February's CPI, and rising non - ferrous metal prices will support the increase in PPI [16]. - The central bank will implement moderately loose monetary policies this year, use various policy tools flexibly, and strengthen the synergy of policies. It will also support the capital market and expand the scale of re - loans [16][17]. - The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and optimize the refinancing mechanism [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China remained in a consolidation state, with slightly differentiated yields of major interest - rate bonds, and short - term bonds performed better [26]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performances, and the convertible bond index rose [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 22 points at the 16:30 close on March 9, and the US dollar index fell 0.09% in New York trading [31]. - China's foreign exchange reserves have increased for seven consecutive months, and gold reserves have increased for 16 consecutive months [32]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that there may be five major expected differences in the market, and there is a risk of "insufficient policy momentum" in the second half of the year [33]. - CICC and other institutions believe that the economic growth target in the government work report takes into account long - term sustainability and short - term necessity, and policies focus on both quantity and quality [34]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 9, 277 bonds will be listed, 123 bonds will be issued, 99 bonds will make payments, and 479 bonds will repay principal and interest [36]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The CSRC will improve the market - stabilizing mechanism, develop diversified equity financing, and support the development of the futures and derivatives market [38]. - The central bank will cooperate with the CSRC to support the capital market and enhance its stability and vitality [38]. - The A - share market fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.38%, and some sectors such as power grid equipment and medical stocks performing strongly [39].