海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.63%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，1月23日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1250亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1250亿元， 中标量1250亿元。Wind数据显示，当日867亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放383亿元。当周实现净投放2295亿元。 Wind数据显示，1月26日至30日当周，央行公开市场将有11810亿元逆回购到期。此外，1月26日还将有2000亿元MLF到 期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 缴税影响尚未完全消除，银行间市场资金面仍显紧平衡，DR001加权平均利率降约2bp至1.39%附近。匿名点击（X-repo） 系统上，隔夜报价在1.42%附近，供给仍不稳；非银机构质押存单及信用债借入隔夜报价则在1.52%-1.55%一线。 6. 国债期货收盘 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.59%附近，较上日下行超1bp。 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market remains buoyant with ample liquidity, supported by a recent 900 billion yuan MLF operation by the central bank, signaling a commitment to maintain liquidity levels [11][15][16] - The 10-year government bond yield is stabilizing in the range of 1.8%-1.9%, suggesting a decrease in the attractiveness of chasing higher yields as rates approach the lower end of this range [15][16] - The stock market is expected to maintain a steady and healthy slow bull pattern, with structural opportunities remaining abundant despite potential pressure from mid-to-long-term fund position adjustments [3][11][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the A-share market is experiencing a shift towards high-dividend, low-volatility sectors, such as banks and state-owned enterprises, as investors adjust their strategies ahead of the Spring Festival [3][16] - The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains high, with significant capital inflows into mid-cap stocks, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have outperformed during the week [11][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and corporate earnings as key drivers for market performance in the upcoming weeks [11][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent strength of the bond market is mainly driven by three factors: stable buying by allocation funds and full clearing of trading funds, alleviation of the pressure from the price - comparison relationship, and the central bank's liquidity support. The current market recovery is more of a phased rebound, and the trend pressure on the fundamentals has not been falsified. After the second quarter, the possibility of the resonance of rising investment returns, the recovery of corporate leverage, and capital inflows needs to be monitored [2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Factors Driving the Bond Market Strength - **Stable Buying by Allocation Funds**: Since the beginning of the year, small and medium - sized banks, insurance companies, and wealth management products have maintained a seasonal or even higher - than - usual allocation intensity. For example, due to the "good start" effect, insurance companies have net - bought over 220 billion yuan of bonds since the beginning of the year, higher than the levels in the same period of 2024 and 2025. Large banks have actively increased their allocation of 7 - 10 - year bonds, indicating the release of the allocation capacity for long - duration assets after the EVE indicator adjustment at the beginning of the year [2][7][8]. - **Full Clearing of Trading Funds**: From multiple perspectives, it can be seen that the selling pressure of trading funds was concentrated in the first two weeks of the year. For example, the selling scale of funds in the first five trading days was close to the weekly extreme of the past year. The overall duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has fallen to around 2.7 years (the 25th percentile in the past three years), and the market divergence index has risen to around the 69th percentile in the past three years, presenting a pattern of "low duration + high divergence" that is conducive to a rebound. The micro - trading sentiment index of the bond market has also shown a certain release of pessimistic sentiment [17]. - **Alleviation of Price - Comparison Pressure**: In the past two weeks, the pressure from the seesaw relationship between equities, commodities, and bonds has eased. On one hand, the regulatory authorities have actively cooled the equity market. On the other hand, from a price - comparison perspective, the valuation of interest rates relative to commodities is at a reasonable level. After the adjustment at the beginning of the year, the 10 - year interest rate has rebounded to the 15th percentile since 2021, and the prices of commodities such as building materials, rebar, coke, and the copper - gold ratio have also rebounded to certain percentiles, with the average percentile of interest rates and commodities basically matching [19]. - **Adequate Liquidity Injection**: Although the structural monetary tools took the lead at the beginning of the year and there were many seasonal disturbance factors, the central bank's overall liquidity injection scale remained at an adequate level. Since January, the central bank has net - injected 1 trillion yuan through MLF and outright repurchase, with a large - scale net injection of 70 billion yuan through MLF and an earlier injection time, which has alleviated the market's concerns about the recurrence of last year's situation in the capital market under the "good start" of credit and supply pressure [22]. 3.2 Sustainability of the Bond Market Rebound - **Historical Experience**: Referring to the performance of rebound markets during periods of cautious sentiment in history, the average duration is about 15 trading days, with an amplitude of about 18BP. The rebound in October last year lasted for 24 trading days, with an amplitude of 11BP. In contrast, the current rebound has lasted for about 12 trading days, with an amplitude of about 7BP, indicating that there is still room for the rebound in terms of both duration and amplitude [3][26]. - **Sentiment Indicators**: The market sentiment has currently recovered to around the median level (about the 54th percentile), and the duration and divergence indicators are still in the "low duration + high divergence" pattern, which is usually conducive to the continuation of the rebound. Moreover, the market's expectation of loose monetary policy is still relatively cautious, and there is still room for moderate recovery if the central bank continues to show a positive attitude [3][26]. 3.3 Comparison with the 2022 - 2023 Market and the Nature of the Current Market - **Differences from 2022 - 2023**: There are several important differences between the current environment and that of 2022 - 2023. In terms of the credit cycle, the transmission chain of PPI→ROIC→credit cycle is being formed, and the transmission smoothness is expected to improve. In the inventory cycle, the current industrial enterprises are at the end of the destocking cycle, and the rebound of the leading indicator PPI increases the possibility of a new cycle start. In terms of asset - pricing expectations, the macro - expectations implied by the exchange rate and the equity market are significantly stronger than those at the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, and the enterprise's willingness to settle foreign exchange has been continuously rising [4]. - **Nature of the Current Market**: The current market recovery is more of a phased rebound. Considering the "short duration + high divergence" pattern in the microstructure of the bond market and the relatively low fundamental headwinds at present, the market is in a phased rebound process. However, the trend pressure on the fundamentals has not been falsified, and after the second quarter, the possibility of the resonance of rising investment returns, the recovery of corporate leverage, and capital inflows needs to be monitored [5][44]. 3.4 Market Performance and Index Analysis - **Central Bank's Monetary Operations**: This week, the central bank carried out a net injection of 22.95 billion yuan through reverse repurchase, and conducted a 900 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on Friday, with a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the highest since January 2024 [46]. - **Funds Rate Movement**: The operating centers of DR001, DR007, and DR014 have moved up 1bp, down 2bp, and up 4bp respectively to 1.37%, 1.49%, and 1.58%. Affected by the tax - payment period, the funds rate first rose and then fell during the week [46]. - **Treasury Yield Changes**: Except for the 1 - year treasury yield, which rose by 4bp to 1.28%, the yields of other - term treasuries declined. The 10 - year treasury yield fell by 1bp to 1.83%, and the 10 - 1 - year term spread narrowed by 5bp to 55bp [47]. - **Bond Duration Changes**: From January 19th to January 23rd, the median duration of public funds increased slightly by 0.01 to 2.71 years, at the 28th percentile in the past three years. The duration divergence index rose rapidly to 0.58, at the 91st percentile in the past three years [49]. - **Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators**: This week, the signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators were mainly "bearish", accounting for 6/10. Compared with last week, the enterprise recruitment forward - looking index and the US dollar index sent "bearish" signals [52]. 3.5 Local Bond Market Analysis - **Local Bond Financing and Issuance Scale**: This week, the net financing scale of local bonds increased month - on - month, with a significant increase in the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds. From January 1st to 23rd, 2026, the total issuance of local bonds was 424.1 billion yuan, slightly lower than 513.7 billion yuan in the same period of 2025. The issuance scale of various types of local bonds was lower than that of last year, with the issuance scale of new general bonds and ordinary refinancing bonds significantly lower than last year [53][65]. - **Local Bond Issuance Term**: This week, the weighted average issuance term of local bonds decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the decrease in the issuance term of special refinancing bonds. From January 1st to 23rd, 2026, the weighted average issuance term of local bonds was 18 years, basically the same as last year. The weighted average issuance terms of new general bonds and special refinancing bonds decreased, while those of new special bonds and ordinary refinancing bonds increased [58][67]. - **Local Bond Issuance Spread**: This week, the issuance spread of local bonds decreased by 3bp month - on - month. The weighted average spread between the local bond issuance rate and the secondary - market local bond rate of the same term was - 4bp, a slight decrease from - 1bp last week. Except for ordinary refinancing bonds, the issuance spreads of other types of local bonds continued to decline [61]. - **Local Bond Issuance Progress**: In January, the actual issuance progress of local bonds was 52% of the planned issuance. Sichuan, Zhejiang, Ningbo, Gansu and other places have completed the planned issuance scale, while Hunan, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Jiangxi have relatively slow issuance progress. Next week (January 26th - 30th), the expected issuance scale of local bonds is 383.1 billion yuan [71].

格陵兰岛风波在瑞士达沃斯的世界经济论坛年会期间，经历了一个戏剧性的急转弯。美国总统特朗普一开始发出了不卖岛就加关税的威胁，引发了全球金融 市场的剧烈波动。然而，仅仅几天后，他突然改口，宣布与北约达成了一个协议框架，取消了先前的关税威胁和武力威胁。面对美国政策的频繁反复和不确 定性，欧洲一批重要的机构投资者，尤其是丹麦的AkademikerPension养老基金，率先发出了卖出美国的信号。这些机构手握超过3.6万亿美元的美债，它们 是否能在一定程度上浇灭美国对格陵兰岛的野心，成为全球关注的焦点。 特朗普突然撤回关税威胁，协议框架究竟包含了什么内容呢？1月21日，特朗普在瑞士达沃斯的世界经济论坛年会上宣布，经过与北约秘书长马克·吕特的卓 有成效会晤，双方就格陵兰岛及整个北极地区未来的协议框架达成了初步共识。基于这一协议，他决定取消此前计划于2月1日生效的对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、 法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰等八个欧洲国家加征关税的措施。然而，这份所谓的协议框架并未被美方和北约完全公开。特朗普表示，该协议将涉及防务 和矿产开采安排，称这对所有相关方都将有利，并表示美国得到了它想要的一切。根据央视新闻的报道，尽管协议并不 ...

华福证券 固 定 收 益 税期资金不紧 钱从何处来？ —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 260125 投资要点： 固 定 收 货币市场：本周 OMO 合计净投放 2295 亿，本周五还有 1500 亿元国 库现金定存到期，同日央行开展 9000 亿元 1 年期 MLF 操作，较本月到期 超额续作 7000 亿元。本周 OMO 净投放规模不大，周中税期对资金面的影 响低于预期，尽管下半周资金一度边际收紧，但随着周五 9000 亿元 MLF 落地，DR001 再度回到 1.4%下方。 益 定 期 报 告 质押式回购成交量上半周窄幅震荡下半周有所回落，日均成交量从上 周的 8.62 万亿小幅下降至 8.57 万亿；质押式回购整体规模震荡下行，周五 降至 12.35 万亿。大型银行净融出持续回落且下半周降幅较大，中小型银行 净周四前维持震荡但周五明显回落；银行整体净融出震荡回落，但较上周 降幅不足 4000 亿。非银刚性融出先降后升，整体略高于上周，其中货基融 出升幅较大；非银刚性融入规模窄幅震荡，整体略低于上周，主要是其他 产品和利差融入下降。资金缺口指数持续回升至周四的-4238，周五降至- 4961，高于上周的- ...

"大财政"系列之二 2026 年 01 月 25 日 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ ——"大财政"系列之二 美国股债汇三杀冲击下，特朗普再度 TACO，撤回对欧洲关税。短期市场冲击虽阶段性缓和，但 债务、地缘等根本矛盾并未解决。随着债务持续扩张，特朗普采取更多"柔性"金融抑制措施。 《财政"锦标赛"：美欧日，谁更积 一、热点思考：美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ （三）向后看，特朗普或采取"结构性"金融抑制措施压低实际利率，但不宜期待美联储 YCC 市场往往误认为债务扩张将导致美、日债务崩盘，未来或将暴发债务违约风险。但对发达货币主 权国而言，央行拥有近乎无限的本币发行能力，实质性违约的可能性较低。债务危机在新兴市场 多表现为信用风险，在发达的拥有主权货币的国家则多表现为货币贬值和通胀预期上升。 （一）全球债市恐慌重演，美国上演"股债汇三杀"，特朗普再度 TACO 1 月 20 日，海外市场再度上演"股债汇三杀"。美欧日国债遭集体抛售，权益等风险资产普跌， 美元走弱，黄金等避险资产走强。日本 40 年国债利率突破 4.0%，10 年美债利率升至 4.3%，30 年英债升至 5.2%，美元跌至 98.54，纳指 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Municipal Party Committee has approved the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the enhancement of the international financial center's competitiveness and influence, with specific deployments for building a global RMB asset allocation center and risk management center [1] - The Shanghai financial system work meeting highlighted the importance of party organization coverage in the financial sector and shared progress on the coverage of non-public financial enterprises [2] - The "Action Plan to Enhance the Commodity Level of Nonferrous Metals" was released, aiming to strengthen the linkage between futures and spot markets [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Financial Regulatory Bureau issued the "Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Pension Finance," proposing 20 measures to build a pension management system with Shanghai characteristics [5] - The first delivery of the futures contract for coated printing paper was successfully completed, with a total delivery volume of 1,840 tons and a delivery amount of nearly 7.6 million yuan [6] - The Shanghai Asset Management Association announced ten major initiatives for building a global asset management center by 2025, reflecting innovative achievements in the sector [8] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the margin ratios and price limits for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures, effective from January 22, 2026 [9] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange is seeking public opinion on revising its risk control management rules, with feedback due by January 28, 2026 [10] - HSBC China has launched its first local public fund custody business, providing custody services for a fund managed by E Fund Management [11] Group 4 - The launch of the "Intelligent Reporting and Review Project for Ship Insurance Certificates" by PICC Shanghai and the Shanghai Maritime Bureau marks a shift towards online and intelligent processes in insurance certificate review [12] - The Construction Bank has introduced a new RMB structured deposit product in the free trade zone, successfully facilitating two offshore enterprises in managing their funds [13] - The first batch of technology innovation convertible bonds was successfully issued, providing low-cost long-term funding for tech enterprises [14] Group 5 - Shanghai Securities has received approval for its sponsorship business qualification, marking a significant breakthrough in its core business license layout [15] - The successful implementation of the first domestic credit certificate electronic document submission business by the Bank of Communications Shanghai branch represents a new financial service breakthrough [16] - Three branches of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank have been recognized as the first batch of green branches in Shanghai, promoting sustainable finance [17] Group 6 - The People's Bank of China is focusing on creating a favorable monetary and financial environment to support high-quality economic development [19] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been adjusted to no less than 30% to adapt to changes in the real estate market [20] - The State Administration of Financial Supervision has issued new regulations to standardize the administrative licensing process for financial institutions [24] Group 7 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has expanded the range of futures market products available for foreign investors, adding 14 new futures options [29] - The CSRC has approved the registration of options for 20 rubber, low-sulfur fuel oil, and international copper, ensuring a smooth launch and operation of these products [30] - Longqi Technology has completed its "A+H" listing, marking a significant milestone in its capital market strategy [31]

·证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》 公募基金业绩"参照系"将全面升级新规与薪 酬挂钩 ·国际白银价格突破100美元大关 ·美国消费者信心指数上涨高物价成为沉重负担 ·1月22日，商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激主持召开英资企业圆桌会。英国驻华贸易使节倪乐 思以及英中贸协、太古集团、汇丰银行、洲际酒店等30家英资企业和协会代表参会。商务部、海关总 署、金融监管总局有关司局参会并现场回应企业提出的问题诉求。凌激表示，近年来中英经贸合作稳步 增长，兼具韧性与活力。双方产业优势互补，应不断深化贸易投资合作，坚持合作共赢，发挥经贸对中 英关系的压舱石和推进器作用，共同维护公平合理的国际经贸秩序。 ·商务部23日发布数据显示，2025年，全国新设立外商投资企业70392家，同比增长19.1%；实际使用外 资金额7476.9亿元，同比下降9.5%。（新华社） ·1月23日，证监会与基金业协会同步发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引》及《公开募集证 券投资基金业绩比较基准操作细则》。新规明确了存量产品基准调整过渡期一年。新规重点从4个方面 发力：一是精准画像，突出基准对产品的"参照系"作用；二是全 ...

■2026·金融瞭望 解码开年投资图谱： □据国信证券基于六大行2025年半年报测算，全行业两年及以上定存到期规模约在59万亿元至71万亿 元，且大部分于2025年末至2026年初集中到期 ◎记者 黄坤 2026年开年，一场关于"钱往哪里去"的讨论正在火热上演。一边是数十万亿元定期存款集中到期，一边 是利率中枢持续下探，居民财富配置站在一个熟悉又微妙变化的路口：继续"守"，还是开始"挪"？ 在安全性、收益性、流动性之间反复权衡后，一张徐徐铺展的开年投资图谱，正逐渐清晰。 不是逃离，而是重新安放 "2022年末理财赎回潮兴起的时候，不少客户把钱存成了三年定期，现在陆续都到期提取了。"一家农商 行的副行长向上海证券报记者描述了近期网点里的真实场景。与3年前3%以上的存款利率相比，如今不 同期限之间的利差明显收窄，许多客户选择将到期资金先置换为短期存款，秉持"不急着动，先看一 看"的观望态度。 这一变化并非个例。2026年被业内视为近年少见的"存款到期大年"。据华泰证券测算，2026年一年期以 上定存到期规模约50万亿元。国信证券基于六大行2025年半年报测算，全行业两年及以上定存到期规模 约在59万亿元至71万亿 ...

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment has improved, with the long-end yields reaching a temporary low, as the 30Y active bond yield broke through 2.25%, down approximately 9 basis points from the monthly high [7][9] - Economic data for December was largely in line with expectations, having a limited impact on the bond market, while the equity market showed a slight slowdown [7][9] - The People's Bank of China announced an excess rollover of MLF, injecting liquidity into the market, which contributed to the overall downward trend in bond yields [7][9] Group 2 - The issuance of government bonds in Q1 2026 is expected to continue to be front-loaded, with a higher proportion of long-term bonds [13][14] - In January 2026, local government bond issuance significantly exceeded the same period last year, with 773.4 billion yuan issued, an increase of 215.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and a high proportion of long-term bonds [28][29] - The demand for long-term bonds remains weak, with institutional enthusiasm for new bonds not particularly high, although there is still some demand for new issues [33][38] Group 3 - The financial institutions' asset allocation pressure has eased, indicating a gradual weakening of the "asset shortage" in the bond market, which corresponds to fluctuations in the 10Y government bond yield [46] - The attractiveness of equity assets remains high, and the new margin policy is not expected to have a significant disruptive effect on the market [47][49] - The overall performance of long-term pure bond funds has been significantly lower compared to equity-related funds, indicating a lack of profitability in the bond market [49][51]