Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View Copper - In the short - term, copper prices are expected to range - bound between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Macro factors like US economic data and tariff policies, along with fundamental supply - demand and inventory conditions, will influence the price. The market is in a state of short - term supply - demand weakness during the off - season, but "tight mining end + demand resilience" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week. The market will experience a game between short - term supply disturbances and over - capacity. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors include supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,400 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as tight scrap aluminum supply and weak terminal demand [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Upward rebound requires continuous inventory reduction and improved interest - rate cut expectations without overseas economic recession. Downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. The current supply - demand situation provides limited support for continuous price increase, but low inventory provides price support [9]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate. Supply is currently tight, and demand is expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward price space [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract operating range of 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Cost support is strengthening, but the weak spot demand restricts the fundamentals [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in a relatively strong range, around 85,000 yuan/ton. The market is affected by short - term news, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider light - position long - entry at low prices [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 79,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.05%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 53.62 yuan/ton to 65TT yuan/ton, a decline of 4.54%. The import profit and loss increased by 119.85 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74% [1]. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.79% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 20,710 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.24%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 58.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.26% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%. The import profit and loss increased by 80.61 yuan/ton to - 1,813 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamentals - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97% [9]. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons to 12.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.13% [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 269,500 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.26%. The import profit and loss decreased by 717.98 yuan/ton to - 16,507.39 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamentals - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94% [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.36%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamentals - China's refined nickel production in the reference period decreased by 3,220 tons to 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume increased by 10,325 tons to 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.38%. The 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamentals - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) decreased by 6.83 million tons to 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83% [16]. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.65 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.23%. The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamentals - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62% [19]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in July decreased by 2,012 tons to 97,846 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the macro - aspect, the path of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is unclear. Inflation has not slowed down due to tariffs, and employment is still weakening. Powell is taking a wait - and - see attitude. The decision of the September FOMC meeting will depend on two employment and inflation reports. The suspension of Sino - US tariffs is due to expire on August 12, with different statements from China and the US. - Fundamentally, during the traditional off - season, there is a stage of weak supply and demand, and inventories are accumulating. However, after the decline in copper prices, spot trading has improved marginally, and downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices. The tight supply at the mine end and the resilience at the demand end support prices. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The US economy is still weakening, capping the upside of copper prices, but the downside is also limited. In the short term, copper prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, as the warehouse receipt volume has gradually recovered, the center of the alumina futures price has moved down, and the spot - futures arbitrage space has narrowed. Traders are expected to be relatively cautious in inquiring and purchasing. Sellers' quotes remain firm, but downstream acceptance of high - priced alumina is average. - Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy - season barge transportation pressure. However, alumina plants' profitability is acceptable, and there is no strong intention to cut production. The recovery of production capacity and new capacity additions will increase spot supply. The market will remain slightly oversupplied, and the future core driver lies in the game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract price of alumina will fluctuate widely in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 this week. - The aluminum price was fluctuating at a high level yesterday. There was a lot of selling in the market, but downstream purchasing willingness was low during the off - season, resulting in a large discount. The macro - environment in China is positive for consumption, and the "anti - involution" sentiment supports the aluminum price. However, the repeated changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and tariff events bring great uncertainty. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum has led to an increase in inventory. On the demand side, the real - estate completion is weak, home - appliance exports are declining, and orders are weakening after the end of the PV installation rush. Only the new - energy vehicle lightweight demand remains resilient. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to be under pressure at a high level, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 this month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Yesterday, the aluminum alloy futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. Most of the market transactions were for spot - futures arbitrageurs to hedge with SHFE aluminum futures, and terminal transactions were sluggish. Social inventories in major consumption areas increased significantly, approaching full capacity in some places. - On the supply side, affected by the off - season, the output of new scrap aluminum is limited. The import of scrap aluminum is restricted due to the price inversion and Thailand's policy. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing some cost support for recycled aluminum. - On the demand side, the traditional off - season has suppressed demand. Orders from the terminal automotive industry are weak. Downstream die - casting enterprises are bearish on the market outlook, maintain a low - inventory rigid - procurement strategy, and have a strong willingness to bargain, resulting in a light trading volume. The weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely, with the main contract referring to 19,200 - 20,200 [6]. Zinc - Overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production resumption, and the zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton. However, the global mine production in May and the domestic mine production growth in July were both lower than expected. - Smelters are highly motivated to resume production, and the smelter operating rate is stronger than the seasonal average. The loose supply at the mine end has gradually spread to the smelting end, and domestic refined zinc production in July exceeded expectations. - The demand side has entered the seasonal off - season, with average terminal consumption. Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, and the spot premium has weakened. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries remain at a seasonal low. - The absolute inventory level is low, and LME zinc inventories are still being depleted. Fundamentally, the combination of loose supply and weak demand is insufficient to support a continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but the low inventory provides price support. For zinc prices to continue to rebound, continuous inventory depletion and a continuous expectation of interest rate cuts without an overseas recession are needed. A downward breakthrough requires a stronger - than - expected TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. In the short term, zinc prices are likely to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 [7][8]. Tin - On the supply side, the supply of tin ore remains tight, and smelters' processing fees remain low. In June, domestic tin ore imports remained at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar is progressing, due to the rainy season, earthquakes, and mine preparations, actual ore output is expected to be postponed until the fourth quarter. - On the demand side, after the end of the PV installation rush, PV tin - bar orders in East China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. In South China, the electronics consumption has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of solder enterprises have declined significantly. Considering the impact of future US tariff policies on trade and the weakening influence of domestic consumption - stimulus policies, future demand is expected to be weak. - Overall, the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the import situation of Burmese tin ore. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may be supported [12]. Nickel - Yesterday, the nickel futures on the SHFE maintained a relatively strong trend, and the overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed slightly. - In the macro - aspect, the weak US employment and factory order data have increased the market's expectation of the Fed accelerating interest rate cuts. In China, it is the policy window period of the meeting, and seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued guidelines on financial support for new - type industrialization. - On the industrial side, the spot price of nickel rose yesterday, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased slightly. Recently, the price of nickel ore has been stable. Mines in the Philippines are in the shipping stage, and the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore in August (phase one) is expected to rise. The nickel - iron market is calm, with supply expected to be loose. The mainstream nickel - iron quotation has risen to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), waiting for transaction confirmation. Domestic iron plants are mostly operating at reduced loads, but the oversupply pressure of nickel - iron still exists, with short - term cost support. - The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw - material procurement. Terminal demand is weak. In the new - energy sector, downstream ternary material producers have low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventories remain high, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories have decreased. - Overall, the sentiment and fundamentals have changed little, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, capping the upside of the nickel price. In the short term, the futures is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - Yesterday, the stainless - steel futures price rose overall. The expectation of the peak season has strengthened support, and spot agents and traders have raised prices, driving up terminal purchasing sentiment and improving market transactions. - In the macro - aspect, the weak US employment and factory order data have increased the market's expectation of the Fed accelerating interest rate cuts. In China, it is the policy window period of the meeting, and seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued guidelines on financial support for new - type industrialization. - The price of nickel ore has been stable. Mines in the Philippines are in the shipping stage, and the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore in August (phase one) is expected to rise. The nickel - iron price is strong, with the mainstream quotation rising to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), waiting for transaction confirmation. Iron plants are operating at reduced loads, and steel mills' profit improvement has weakened the pressure on raw - material prices. The chromium - iron price is weak, and the spot price may still decline slightly in the future. - Stainless - steel plants are actively reducing production to cope with insufficient demand, but the reduction is moderate and not sustainable, so the short - term supply pressure in the market is difficult to ease. The reality of weak terminal demand remains unchanged. In the traditional downstream sectors, it is the off - season, and the growth rate of emerging downstream sectors is expected to decline. Purchases are mainly for rigid replenishment, and although traders have more bargaining space, trading volume is still difficult to increase. The reduction of stainless - steel social inventory is slow, and warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. - Overall, the sentiment has improved, and cost support has strengthened, but the fundamentals are still constrained by weak spot demand. In the short term, the futures price is likely to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 13,000 - 13,500. Attention should be paid to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, all lithium - carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit, mainly affected by the news that the Shixiawo mine in Jiangxi confirmed to be shut down over the weekend. The market sentiment continued to ferment, and the main contract LC2511 rose to 81,000. There is still speculation about whether other mines in Jiangxi will be affected, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy guidance on mine production. - Fundamentally, the current supply - demand balance is tight. The smelting end has short - term inventory support, and supply remains relatively sufficient. Last week's production data rebounded again, but the marginal growth rate of supply has slowed down recently. Demand is showing a steady and optimistic trend, gradually entering the peak season. Cell orders are acceptable, and material production - scheduling data is more optimistic than market expectations. However, due to the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, actual demand has not been significantly boosted. - Last week, inventories increased across the board. Upstream smelters continued to reduce inventories, while downstream replenishment increased significantly, and other trading links remained stable with a slight decrease. Overall, after the expectations at the mine end are realized, the upward space of the futures price is more determined by capital sentiment. Driven by continuous sentiment, the futures price is expected to remain strong in the short term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. Recently, attention should be paid to the evolution of market sentiment and the actual adjustment of supply [19]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day. Other copper - related prices and premiums also showed different changes [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton [6]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [7][8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price remained unchanged at 268,000 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Month - to - Month Spreads - Different metals showed different changes in month - to - month spreads, such as copper's 2508 - 2509 spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day; aluminum's 2508 - 2509 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [1][4]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7][8]. - **Tin**: In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% from the previous month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% from the previous month [12]. - **Nickel**: In July, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; in Indonesia (Qinglong), it was 36.00 million tons, unchanged from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate within a range, mainly between 78,000 - 79,500. The macro situation has uncertainties in the interest - rate cut path, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand during the off - season, but "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 this week, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term. For aluminum, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in August referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200, and it is necessary to focus on the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices may oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000. The supply is loose while the demand is weak, and the low inventory provides price support [7]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, mainly between 118,000 - 126,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500, and it is necessary to focus on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. It is necessary to focus on the evolution of market sentiment and actual supply adjustments [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price was 268,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 2.22% from the previous day [14]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 145 yuan/ton, down 56.72% from the previous day [16]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; imports were 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month; exports were 39.00 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. With the US economy weakening, the copper price faces upward pressure. However, from the Samuelson rule, the market has not entered a recession narrative, and the downside space is difficult to open. In the short term, the copper price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor include inventory changes and marginal demand changes [5]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand imbalance of aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the market remaining in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract is expected to trade between 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch are upstream scrap aluminum supply and import changes [7]. Zinc - The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of the zinc price, but the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, the zinc price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. Key factor to monitor is the import situation of Burmese tin ore [14]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. Key factor to watch is the change in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor are policy trends and the supply - demand situation of nickel ore and nickel iron [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment and news mainly drive the lithium carbonate price. The main contract price may test the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the fact that the current price has already reflected some of the results, and unilateral trading should be cautious [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,530 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Copper View - In the traditional off - season, the market shows a phased situation of weak supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. However, after the copper price drops, spot trading improves marginally, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; the premium is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [5]. Alumina and Aluminum Views - Last week, the alumina futures price was under pressure due to the increase in registered warehouse receipts. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten, but the alumina plants' willingness to cut production is not strong. The aluminum price is affected by factors such as inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro - level disturbances [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread is 45 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [7]. Aluminum Alloy View - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the cost, while the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,470 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Zinc View - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing [10]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price is 268,000 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [14]. Tin View - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season [14]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 160 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [16]. Nickel View - The nickel market is oscillating, with weak unilateral driving forces. The macro - level sentiment is temporarily stable, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium term [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports are 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [17]. Stainless Steel View - The stainless steel market is oscillating slightly stronger, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is low. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the demand is weak [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan/ton, up 1.13% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 1340 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [20]. Lithium Carbonate View - The lithium carbonate price rose significantly last week, mainly driven by market sentiment and news. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, and the price may test the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic data is positive, and there are hopes of a Fed rate cut, leading to a generally strong and volatile trend in non - ferrous metals [1][2] - Different non - ferrous metals have different market performances. For example, copper is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, aluminum is in an upward trend with short - term volatility, and zinc has limited upward momentum [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Variety Views Copper - China's positive economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory provide high - level support for copper prices, but it is in the off - season, and short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Suggested operations are range trading or waiting and seeing [2] Aluminum - The rainy season in Guinea affects bauxite mining and transportation, supporting ore prices. Alumina production capacity and inventory are both increasing. Aluminum prices are in an upward trend but with short - term volatility. It is recommended to go long on dips in August [2] Zinc - Zinc concentrate supply is loose, and domestic demand is weak in the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to have limited upward momentum, with the main contract operating in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Suggested operation is range trading [2] Lead - LME and Comex lead inventories have decreased, and domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. Lead prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the range of 16,500 - 17,200 yuan/ton [2] Nickel - In the medium and long term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies, with the main contract operating in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Stainless steel is recommended for range trading in the range of 12,600 - 13,100 yuan/ton [3] Tin - In the off - season, demand is weak, and prices are volatile. Tin ore supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range for the Shanghai Tin 09 contract being 255,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [3] Industrial Silicon - Production and inventory data show mixed trends. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. Polysilicon has high risks, and it is also recommended to wait and see [3] Carbonate Lithium - Due to mine - end production disruptions, prices are strong. It is expected that short - term prices will be supported, and it is recommended for cautious trading [3] Non - ferrous Metal Inventory - Different non - ferrous metals have different inventory trends. For example, copper's global inventory has increased week - on - week, while tin's global inventory has decreased week - on - week [7] Macro - economic Data - China's July service industry PMI continued to expand, and exports increased year - on - year. The US service industry PMI was close to stagnation in July [9][11][14] Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - Each non - ferrous metal has corresponding price trend charts and key data tracking, such as copper's LME copper (spot/three - month) premium and discount, Shanghai copper's inter - period spread curve, etc. [30][31]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 8, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Positive Factors - Low domestic zinc ingot inventory supports prices [3] - Strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts put pressure on the US dollar, boosting the rebound of zinc prices [3] Negative Factors - Accelerated supply growth and the release of new production capacity lead to oversupply [3] - It is the off - season for demand, with the downstream operating rate falling to a low level and weak consumption [3] Trading Consultation Views - Institutions are bullish on Shanghai zinc, mainly due to the good low - inventory situation [3] Processing and Terminal Demand Galvanized Sheet Coil - Market sentiment index (weekly) data is presented from 2023 - 12 to 2025 - 06 [5] - Weekly inventory - seasonal data is shown from 2021 to 2025 [5] - Steel mill weekly production - seasonal data is provided from 2021 to 2025 [5] Other Products - Net export seasonality data is provided for galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [6][7][10] Real Estate - Cumulative year - on - year data for real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area are presented [13][15] Infrastructure - Cumulative year - on - year data for infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) is shown [20] Supply and Supply - Side Profits Zinc Concentrate - Monthly import volume seasonal data is provided from 2021 to 2025 [23] - TC (treatment charge) data is presented from 2022 - 04 to 2025 - 04 [25] Zinc Ingot - Monthly production seasonal data for SMM zinc ingots is shown from 2021 to 2025 [26] - Monthly production + import volume seasonal data for Chinese zinc ingots is provided from 2021 to 2025 [27] Inventory - Data on zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory are presented [29][30] Futures and Spot Market Review Price Trends - Domestic and foreign zinc price trends are shown from 2023 - 12 to 2025 - 06 [32] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index data is presented from 2022 - 04 to 2025 - 04 [34] Trading Volume and Position - Volume and position data of Shanghai zinc futures main contract are provided from 2023 - 12 to 2025 - 06 [33] Basis and Premium - Data on LME zinc premium, zinc ingot three - location basis, and Tianjin zinc ingot basis are presented [36][38][39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the disappointment of US copper tariffs, the electrolytic copper market in non - US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may still fluctuate within a range without significant macro disturbances. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The TC of zinc ore has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June are both lower than expected. The smelter's enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter's operating rate is stronger than the seasonality. The supply - side relaxation logic of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. The demand side is significantly suppressed by the strong disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices, but the low inventory provides price support. It is expected that zinc prices will still operate in a shock in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported to rebound, and the basis weakens, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future, and the core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will still be under pressure at a high level in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum in the market is relatively tight, which provides certain support for recycled aluminum on the cost side. The demand side is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue, which will continuously suppress the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, and the reference range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue to be at a low level. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply resumes smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals do not change much. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will adjust within a range in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Recently, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,200 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term suspension expectation of the market is fermenting, and the uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. Currently, the supply - demand balance is in line with expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and the supply remains sufficient. The demand performance is stable. Recently, the market sentiment and news - surface disturbances dominate the disk trend. The main contract price is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without a position [13][14]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,350 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 10 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,474 yuan/ton, up 75.56 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 25 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,294 yuan/ton, up 39.9 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are 30 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC15 price is 20,150 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 are 20 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price is 267,600 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium is - 42.00 US dollars/ton, down 3.00 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 470 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 is - 206 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 100 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot - futures spread is 235 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 60 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,950 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; the basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is 2,090 yuan/ton, down 1,810 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 400 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 521,600 tons, down 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - In July, the refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month. The galvanizing operating rate was 56.77%, down 2.65% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum - In July, the alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The aluminum profile operating rate was 50.00%, down 0.99% week - on - week [7]. Aluminum Alloy - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, down 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.60%, up 3.02% week - on - week [8]. Tin - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month. The SHEF inventory was 7,671 tons, up 3.42% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - The domestic refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory was 25,451 tons, up 0.69% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output (43 manufacturers) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 514,800 tons, down 0.20% week - on - week [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month. The total lithium carbonate inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - The path of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year remains unclear, inflation hasn't slowed due to tariffs, and employment is still weakening. Powell adopts a wait - and - see attitude towards the subsequent interest rate cut path. The result of Sino - US trade negotiations is an extension of 90 days, and the tariff result is yet to be further negotiated. The market's expectation of a 50% tariff on US electrolytic copper has failed, leading to a sharp decline in US copper prices and the end of the US - LME copper arbitrage. The upward momentum for non - US copper prices has ended. - During the traditional off - season, there is a stage of weak supply and demand. However, after the copper price drops, the spot trading improves marginally. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. - Without a clear interest rate cut path and significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the failure of the US copper tariff, the non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3900 yuan/ton, but the global mine output growth in May and the domestic mine output growth in June are both lower than expected. - With TC entering an upward cycle and smelting profits being continuously repaired, smelters are highly motivated to resume production, and the smelter operating rate is stronger than the seasonal level. The supply of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. - The demand side is significantly suppressed by the rising disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries are weak due to factors such as the rise and fall of ferrous metal prices and the off - season of demand. - The low spot premium and low inventory level provide price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter a replenishment cycle. In the short term, with the landing of domestic and foreign macro events, without substantial improvement in interest rate cut expectations and Sino - US economic macro expectations, the zinc price is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy - season barge transportation pressure, and the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory is at a historical low, which supports the short - term price rebound and reduces the basis. However, the impact of "anti - involution" on the alumina industry is minimal except for the emotional aspect. The recovery of production capacity and new production due to profit repair will jointly increase the spot supply, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3000 - 3400 in the short term. - For aluminum, yesterday's aluminum price remained volatile. In the off - season, the downstream procurement willingness is low, and the market discount continues to expand. The domestic consumption stimulus atmosphere is still strong, and the "anti - involution" has a certain supporting effect on the aluminum price, but the changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and tariff events bring great uncertainty to the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, and the decrease in the molten aluminum ratio drives the inventory to bottom out. The demand side is weak, with weak construction and real - estate completion, declining household appliance exports, and weakening orders after the end of photovoltaic installations. Only the demand for new - energy vehicle lightweighting remains resilient. In the face of the pressure of inventory replenishment expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, the aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 this month [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy disk price follows the aluminum price and fluctuates. The market trading is mainly for hedging by spot - futures traders to shrink the aluminum - aluminum alloy price difference, and the terminal trading is sluggish. The social inventory in the main consumption areas has increased significantly, and areas such as Ningbo and Foshan are close to full storage. - On the supply side, due to the off - season, the output of new scrap aluminum is limited. The import price is inverted, and Thailand has stopped issuing licenses to recycling factories, resulting in a shortage of scrap aluminum supply in the current market, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. - On the demand side, it is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season. The orders in the terminal automotive industry are weak, and downstream die - casting enterprises generally have a bearish outlook on the market, maintaining a low - inventory rigid procurement strategy and having a strong willingness to bargain. The weak demand situation will continue to suppress the upward momentum of the price. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - On the supply side, the actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee continues to be low. The domestic tin ore imports in June remained at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar is gradually advancing, and it is expected to start shipping around the end of August. - On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, the orders for photovoltaic tin strips in the East China region have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. The electronic consumption in the South China region has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of soldering enterprises have declined significantly. Considering the impact of the US tariff policy on trade and the weakening influence of domestic consumption stimulus policies, the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply recovers smoothly, there is a large downward space for the tin price, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the weak data on the US employment and factory orders have increased the market's expectation of the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. In China, during the policy window period of the meeting, seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new - type industrialization. - At the industrial level, yesterday's spot price continued to rise, and the premiums of various brands remained stable. The ore price is mainly stable. Philippine mines are mostly in the shipping stage. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore is mostly around CIF42, and that of 1.4% nickel ore is mostly around CIF50. The domestic iron mills mostly maintain reduced - load production, and the supply of nickel ore still needs time to recover, so nickel iron still has cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, and the terminal demand is relatively weak. In the new - energy sector, the downstream ternary materials have a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventory remains high, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories have increased. - In the short term, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals change little. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. It is expected that the disk will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [10]. Stainless Steel - Macroscopically, similar to nickel, the weak US data increases the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, and China has introduced relevant policies. - At the industrial level, the ore price is mainly stable. The market negotiation range has shifted upward, and the nickel - iron quotation has risen to 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold). Iron mills are operating at a loss and reducing production, and steel mills are mostly in a wait - and - see attitude in raw material procurement. The chromium - iron price is weakly stable, and there is still a small room for callback in the spot price due to the decline in the procurement price of chromium - iron steel mills. The supply of stainless - steel mills has decreased due to maintenance, but the production reduction is less than expected, and the short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce. The terminal demand remains weak, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, while the growth rate of the emerging downstream is generally expected to decline. Purchases are mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and although the bargaining space for traders has increased, the trading volume is still difficult to increase. The social inventory of stainless steel is slowly decreasing, and the warehouse receipts continue to decrease. - In the short term, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy directions and supply - demand rhythms [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate disk rose overall. There was a lot of news about mine shutdowns, and the market's expectation of short - term production suspension has fermented. The mine - right approval is approaching the deadline, but the actual result has not been clearly determined. The uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. - Fundamentally, the current supply - demand balance situation meets expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and although some production lines are under maintenance, the supply remains sufficient. The production data decreased last week, and the marginal growth rate of supply has slightly slowed down. The demand performance is stable, and the seasonal characteristics are fading. The battery cell orders are okay, and the material production scheduling data is more optimistic than the market expectation. However, due to the off - season and inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the actual demand has not been significantly boosted. - Recently, the market sentiment and news - related disturbances dominate the disk trend, and the trading core has shifted to the mine end. There are many matters to be verified in the news. The main price center is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. Attention should be paid to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [13][14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.34% to 78,350 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 20.82% to 660 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 increased by 1.51 to - 49.25 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 120.22 to - 142 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.15 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 remained unchanged at - 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. - The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton; the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 7.01% to 52.16 million tons. - The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 2.36 to 71.73%; the operating rate of recycled copper rod production increased by 1.98 to 29.29%. - The domestic social inventory increased by 12.97% to 13 million tons; the bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.34% to 8.11 million tons; the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.20% to 7.25 million tons. - The LME inventory increased by 1.48% to 15.61 million tons; the COMEX inventory increased by 0.39% to 26.22 million short tons; the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 96.18% to 2.03 million tons [1]. Zinc Price and Related Indicators - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,330 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss increased by 75.56 to - 1474 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio increased by 0.01 to 8.07 [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased by 130 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 145 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the refined zinc export volume was 0.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. - The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 2.65 to 56.77%; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate decreased by 2.79 to 48.24%; the zinc oxide operating rate increased by 0.14 to 56.13%. - The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 3.47% to 10.73 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 3.79% to 9.7 million tons [4]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.54% to 20,630 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss increased by 39.9 to - 1294 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio increased by 0.02 to 8.03. - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 19.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 1.96 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 million tons. - The aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 0.99% to 50.00%; the aluminum cable operating rate increased by 0.32% to 61.80%; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate remained unchanged at 63.20%; the aluminum foil operating rate decreased by 1.01% to 68.90%; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1.11% to 54.60%. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.82% to 56.40 million tons; the LME inventory increased by 0.41% to 46.8 million tons [7]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC15, SMM East China ADC12, SMM South China ADC12, SMM Northeast ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,150 yuan/ton; the price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,300 yuan/ton. - The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 25 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton;

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, aluminum prices are still under pressure at high levels. The main contract price this month is expected to range from 20,000 - 21,000. In the future, it is necessary to focus on inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - It is expected that the aluminum alloy market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to mainly fluctuate. The main reference range is 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short term, the stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news have dominated the market trend. The main price center of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. In the near future, attention should be paid to news increments and supply adjustments [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.25% to 78,675 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed different degrees of changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, electrolytic copper imports were 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.20% to 20,520 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.25% to 20,050 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.59% to 22,300 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, refined zinc imports were 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.45% to 267,000 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In June, domestic tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.54% to 121,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. There were also changes in inventory [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,000 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread decreased by 14.29% to 210 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. There were also changes in imports, exports and inventory [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.21% to 71,200 yuan/ton; the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 81.40% to 3,900 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. There were also changes in inventory [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term price is under pressure due to the disappointment of the 50% US copper tariff expectation, with the main price range expected to be 77,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved [1]. Aluminum - The short - term main contract of alumina is expected to run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium term. Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short term, with the main contract price range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The subsequent demand will remain weak, suppressing the upward momentum of prices. However, the downward space is limited due to the high cost of scrap aluminum. The disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, with the main reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the supply improvement of refined zinc lags behind, and the demand is affected by the seasonal off - season [7]. Tin - It is recommended to wait and see. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the disk is expected to be adjusted within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro - expectation is changeable, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [11]. Stainless Steel - The short - term disk is mainly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the terminal demand is weak [12][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The main price is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without positions, and consider shorting the near - term contract and longing the far - term contract for inter - period trading. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and supply adjustments [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.91% to 78,565 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 14.18% to 844 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 66,837 tons, and imports increased by 18.74% to 30.05 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 23.23% to 56.09 tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.44% to 20,580 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 725.81 tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 tons. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.06% to 54.40 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 61.50 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 tons. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.59% to 3.26 tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.68% to 22,300 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 20.54 yuan/ton to - 1602 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 45 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 3.61 tons. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 4.98% to 10.32 tons [7]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.97% to 265,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 166.76% to - 7.01 dollars/ton. The import loss decreased by 5.93% to - 15,773.30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 380 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 13,810 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.36% to 9,958 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.46% to 121,250 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 62.17% to - 3,863 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.97% to 40,338 tons [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 32.50% to 265 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 tons, and imports decreased by 12.48% to 10.95 tons. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.20% to 51.48 tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.30% to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 48.70% to 4,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons, and imports decreased by 16.31% to 17,698 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 88,888 tons [14].