Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has cooled down from its upward trend and entered a period of oscillation. The aluminum market shows significant divergence, with the price expected to be macro - led and oscillate strongly. The zinc market presents opportunities for short - term long positions and cross - market reverse arbitrage. The lead market is expected to oscillate in the short term with potential long - term upside. The nickel and stainless - steel market remains under pressure. The tin market may face a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside. The polysilicon market is expected to continue oscillating [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Sentiment**: After reaching a high, copper prices declined and oscillated last week. The market is more concerned about the UK's income pressure, and the probability of interest rate cuts has increased [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak. Domestic refined copper production decreased in October, and consumption is sluggish. The inventory decreased last week [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Codelco lowered its production guidance, and some mines have resumed production [1]. - **Market Trend**: The copper market is dominated by funds. It is recommended to wait and see or use options for trading [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity of alumina increased slightly, and the price is in a weak state [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, with new domestic capacity under construction and overseas capacity expected to resume production [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased. The spot premium and discount fluctuated slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: The market is macro - led and oscillates strongly, but the fundamental resonance is limited, and market divergence has intensified [1]. Zinc - **Market Trend**: The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the external market supports the domestic market [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory stopped falling, and the domestic smelter's profit is under pressure [1]. - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption is weak, but traders in the East China region are bullish [1]. - **Market Trend**: Short - term long positions can be considered, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. Lead - **Market Situation**: The LME lead inventory decreased, and the external market rebounds, supporting the domestic market [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost has increased [1]. - **Consumption**: The demand for lead - acid batteries is improving [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets are sluggish, with weak trading [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The overall nickel industry is over - supplied, and the market is in a downturn [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premium of nickel decreased, and the inventory of related products changed slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: The nickel market is in a weak state [1]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The tin price oscillated last week, and the short - term decline attracted buying interest [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin supply is tight, and the overall inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Consumption**: Consumption lacks bright spots [1]. - **Market Trend**: It may be in a tight supply situation in the short term, but the long - term price support is weakening [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises are actively producing, and the battery orders are increasing [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased, and the price of Australian ore increased [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is shrinking, and demand is weak overall [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price oscillated and declined, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decreased slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to continue oscillating [1].

Group 1: Tin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The market sentiment has improved with the expected end of the US government shutdown, and the fundamentals are relatively strong. Long positions should be held. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. If the supply recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to remain strong [1]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin increased by 0.74% to 285,800 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium increased by 30% to 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Internal and External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased by 7.99% to -14,989.79 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-London ratio was 7.94 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2511 - 2512 spread decreasing by 20.83% to -580 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production in October increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [1]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory increased by 1.23% to 5,992 tons, and social inventory increased by 5.22% to 7,033 tons [1]. Group 2: Nickel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The macro situation exerts some pressure, and the fundamentals are mixed. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.25% to 121,200 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 20% to 3,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Futures Import Profit and Loss and Shanghai-London Ratio**: The futures import loss increased by 7.99% to -1,825 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-London ratio was 7.92 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread remained unchanged at -170 [4]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.19% to 37,187 tons [4]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The policy and macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term stainless steel price is expected to weaken and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and steel mill supply [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference decreased by 9.88% to 365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread remained unchanged at -5 [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the net export volume decreased by 9.83% to 29.82 million tons [6]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.65% to 48.89 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.08% to 7.20 million tons [6]. Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term fundamentals support the price, but the upward movement of the market is mainly driven by funds. The market may fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand after the peak season and the release speed of upstream projects [9]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.44% to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) decreased by 88.49% to 290 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 780 to -1,700 [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Lithium carbonate production in October increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and demand increased by 8.70% to 126,961 tons [9]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total inventory in October decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [9]. Group 5: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it is less than in October. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of November contracts [10]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SI4210 benchmark) decreased by 6.25% to -340 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 27.52% to -242 [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 3.70% to 11.21 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.08% to 55.20 million tons [10]. Group 6: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The polysilicon market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the recovery of component prices, the establishment of platform companies, and the increase in demand orders [12]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Futures Spread**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [12]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 5.55% to 13.45 GW, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% to 2.70 million tons [12]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83% to 0.09 million tons [12]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.77% to 25.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.45% to 17.52 GW [12]. Group 7: Aluminum Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of high - cost enterprises [15]. - **Aluminum**: Prices will fluctuate in the short term between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipt flows, domestic inventory changes, and overseas macro trends [15]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.23% to 21,490 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 to -45 [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina production in October increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.36% to 54.7 million tons [15]. Group 8: Copper Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The copper price rebounded slightly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom price. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and overseas liquidity. The main contract should focus on the support at 84,000 - 85,000 [17]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.60% to 86,232 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 15 to 55 [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 20 to 0 [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production in October decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.57% to 62.97 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 1.06% to 13.59 million tons [17]. Group 9: Zinc Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Shanghai zinc market oscillated at a high level. The supply pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand has not shown unexpected performance. The LME zinc price has upward pressure, while the Shanghai zinc may be stronger than the LME zinc, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 [20]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.31% to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 to -55 [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production in October increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.41% to 55.13% [20]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged at 3.5 million tons [20]. Group 10: Aluminum Alloy Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation trend, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion [22]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 100 to -105 [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in October decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.95% to 55.84% [22]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [22].

Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Positive Factors**: Zinc ore visible inventory is continuously decreasing, and the decline in processing fees has led to a narrowing of smelting profits. The temporary tightness of raw material supply restricts refined zinc production. The operating rates of demand - side sectors such as galvanizing and die - casting zinc are stable. The stable rigid demand consumption combined with positive market sentiment provides support [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic zinc ingot inventory is relatively high (social inventory is 163,500 tons), and it increased by 1,400 tons this week, continuously suppressing prices. The weak fundamental pattern dominates pricing, and there is a risk of price decline if demand does not improve substantially [3]. - **Trading Advice**: Consider an interval trading strategy and pay attention to marginal changes in supply and demand [3]. 2. Section Summaries Processing and End - User Demand - Multiple charts are presented, including the weekly market sentiment index of galvanized coils, weekly inventory, weekly production, net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), net imports of die - casting zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), net exports of zinc oxide, real - estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data, sales area and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities, and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, as well as infrastructure fixed - asset investment data [4][7][10][12][14][15]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Charts show the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, monthly production of SMM zinc ingots, production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises, monthly production plus imports of Chinese zinc ingots, raw material inventory days of zinc concentrates, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [18][20][21][22][24][25]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts cover the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. the US dollar index, LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread, LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [27][28][29][31][32][33][36]. 3. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, and the strong US dollar index suppresses copper prices. After the reduction of interest rates and tariffs, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes may be the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and Sino - US tariff situation. - The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the spot TC of copper ore stays at a low level. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall, there may be a phased reduction in smelting production. The downstream's psychological price ceiling for copper prices gradually moves up. The downstream demand for copper is resilient, and there are still many purchase orders after price declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is not substantially relieved, the demand is weak, and the cost support is gradually shifting down. Pay attention to the supply recovery progress of Guinea's bauxite, the impact of domestic environmental policies on production, and the inventory depletion rhythm. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality in the short - term. The 21500 yuan/ton pressure level is crucial. If the inventory continues to accumulate, there is a risk of price correction to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market followed the aluminum price to rise and then fall. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the demand shows a mild recovery. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum, procurement costs, and inventory depletion [4]. Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. The supply of zinc is generally loose, but the subsequent production increase may be limited. The demand has no extraordinary performance, and the LME's low inventory causes squeezing risks, which support zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and relatively strong in the short - term, with the main reference range of 22300 - 23000 [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement of supply within the year is limited. The demand is weak, and the contribution of new fields such as AI and photovoltaics is small. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Pay attention to macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a weak and volatile state. The macro - sentiment is weak, and the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is affected by the rainy season and typhoons, while that from Indonesia is relatively loose. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for ternary materials has limited sustainability. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is running weakly. The supply pressure still exists, the demand is not significantly boosted, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The short - term market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main operating range of 12500 - 13000. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel supply [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is weakly volatile. Although the short - term fundamentals are strong, the trading logic has switched, and the news and capital drives are stronger. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main reference range of 78000 - 82000 yuan [15]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.45% to 85335 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The premiums of other copper types also changed to varying degrees. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.20%, and the import profit and loss improved by 163.21 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.94 million tons (-2.62%), and in September, the import volume increased by 7 million tons (26.50%). The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased by 7.67%, and the social inventory increased by 8.46% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.65% to 21300 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different regions of alumina showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some decreasing. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 170 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39%, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%, and in September, the import volume increased by 13.57%. The开工 rates of various aluminum products decreased to varying degrees, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and its regional varieties decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.23% to 0.47%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions decreased. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 35 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06%. The开工 rates of recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while that of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.35% to 22500 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 21.34 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, and in September, the import volume decreased by 11.61%, while the export volume increased by 696.78%. The开工 rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide increased slightly, while that of die - casting zinc alloy decreased slightly. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 1.10% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.44% to 281300 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 12.16%. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased by 0.34%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 280 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the refined tin production decreased by 31.71%. The SHEF inventory increased by 2.65%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.11% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.70% to 120950 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 200 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 6.68%. - **Electrolytic Nickel Cost**: The costs of different production methods of electrolytic nickel decreased to varying degrees. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, while the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.32%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 50 yuan/ton. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In October, China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, and the import volume increased by 124.36%. The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.48% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, with the Foshan price decreasing by 0.78%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 2.35%. - **Raw Material Price**: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, with the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreasing by 0.22%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.55% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the prices of CIF battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea also decreased. The lithium - spodumene concentrate price decreased by 1.18%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2511 - 2601 increased by 260 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73%, the demand increased by 8.70%, and the total inventory decreased by 10.90%. The capacity increased by 0.80%, and the开工 rate increased by 1.82% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas market liquidity is tightening, and the US dollar index is strong, suppressing copper prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may inhibit demand. The subsequent focus is on demand changes and overseas liquidity, with the main contract supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term, and there is a risk of correction if inventories continue to accumulate [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [6]. Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. In the short term, zinc prices will be oscillating and relatively strong, but the fundamentals may limit the upward space, with the main contract ranging from 22300 - 23000 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. With a strong fundamental outlook, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - Macro sentiment is stable, and cost has some support, but the overall fundamentals are flat. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term strong fundamentals support the price, but the trading logic has switched recently. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract ranging from 76000 - 82000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86590 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 685 yuan/ton, up 186.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In September, imports were 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2608 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum was 1789 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day [6]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 115 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22580 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 4758 yuan/ton, down 276.57 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month. In September, imports were 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was 74 dollars/ton, up 85% from the previous day [11]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 66.07% from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month, and SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121800 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 212 dollars/ton, down 3.25% from the previous day [13]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month. Imports were 38164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 425 yuan/ton, up 25% from the previous day [15]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month. Imports were 12.03 million tons, up 2.70% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80608 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) was 280 yuan/ton, down 83.53% from the previous day [17]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 1480 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month. The total inventory was 84234 tons, down 10.90% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Lido Factors**: Refined zinc supply remains at a low level, supporting the firmness of zinc prices. Demand is in a seasonal peak season, and consumption expectations boost market sentiment [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The trend of accelerated inventory accumulation is emerging, and inventory pressure suppresses price increases. The pattern of oversupply in the domestic market continues, and the widening import losses restrain the market [3]. - **Trading Advisory Viewpoint**: The unilateral strategy is recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a focus on tracking the dynamics of the export window [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing Links and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: The content includes the market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory - seasonality, and steel mill weekly production - seasonality [4]. - **Net Exports and Imports**: There are net export seasonality data for galvanized sheets (strips), color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide, as well as net import seasonality data for die - cast zinc alloys [7][9][10]. - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year, sales area cumulative year - on - year, and unsold area cumulative year - on - year, as well as 100 major cities'成交 land area and 30 major cities' commercial housing transaction volume are presented [12][14][16]. - **Infrastructure**: The cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion amount in transportation, warehousing and postal services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, tertiary industry infrastructure construction, and power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries are shown [17][18]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume - seasonality, TC, and raw material inventory days are provided [20][22][26]. - **Zinc Ingot Production**: Monthly production - seasonality of SMM zinc ingots, China's monthly zinc ingot production + import volume - seasonality are included [23][24]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory data are presented [26][27]. - **Production Profit**: The production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises are shown [23]. Futures Disk and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trend**: The trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index are presented [29][31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contracts are shown [30]. - **Price Spread**: LME zinc (spot/three - month): premium/discount, 100 - basis spread trends of zinc ingots in three places are presented [33][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply shortage of copper mines strengthens the price bottom, and downstream demand shows strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide market shows regional differentiation, with the north showing signs of bottoming and the south continuing to decline. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is strong, supported by macro factors and demand in some fields, and is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market maintains a high - level oscillation. The cost support is prominent, and the supply shows a contraction trend. The demand shows a mild recovery, and the social inventory accumulates weekly. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - After the macro positive expectations are fulfilled, the zinc price oscillates. The supply is expected to increase limitedly due to compressed smelting profits, and the demand is stable. There is a risk of a short squeeze in LME, and the export window is intermittently open. The zinc price has short - term support but may continue to oscillate without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [9]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remains tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish statement may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent trend depends on macro factors and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillates. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the mine price is firm, but the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decrease. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the industry profit is shrinking. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillates and weakens. The nickel ore price is firm, but the supply in the Philippines may decrease. The nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices are under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to weakly oscillate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. The auction price of lithium mines provides support. The supply shows a slight decrease, and the demand is unexpectedly optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 15,249.89 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Production - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% from the previous month [1]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum oxide production in September was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% from the previous month [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% from the previous month [5]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in September was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% from the previous month [9]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin production in September was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous month [11]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel products in China was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% from the previous month [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% from the previous month [17]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory of copper is 182,600 tons, up 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory is 104,800 tons, down 4.94% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is 619,000 tons, up 0.16% from the previous day; the LME inventory is 460,000 tons, down 0.70% from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 54,800 tons, up 0.18% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: The seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 161,500 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week; the LME inventory is 35,000 tons, down 0.85% from the previous day [9]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory of tin is 5,766 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week; the social inventory is 6,828 tons, down 2.69% from the previous week [11]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory of nickel is 36,075 tons, up 4.81% from the previous week; the social inventory is 48,802 tons, up 2.29% from the previous week [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of 300 - series (Wuxi + Foshan) is 492,200 tons, down 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE warrant is 73,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate in September was 94,539 tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the price bottom, but short - term rapid price increases may suppress demand. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, and the main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Macro factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic policies support market confidence, while the supply - demand structure shows that supply is restricted and demand has structural highlights. Alumina prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and the market has shown signs of bottoming out [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market continues to oscillate at a high level. Cost support is prominent, supply is shrinking, demand is moderately recovering, and social inventory is accumulating. The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply is relatively loose, but the smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is generally stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze, which supports the zinc price. The main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices may decline in the short term due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, but the demand is weak. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they will continue to run strongly [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Macro factors are stable, but the inventory is accumulating, and the medium - term supply is loose. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and oscillate. Macro sentiment has improved, but downstream demand during the peak season is insufficient, and the supply side has pressure from production scheduling and social inventory. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. The downstream demand is better than expected, and the industry is continuously destocking. The main contract reference range is 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread shows different changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons compared with the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. The import volume increased by 13.57%, and the export volume increased by 13.07% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The month - to - month spread shows different changes [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43%. The import volume of non - wrought aluminum alloy ingots increased by 15.77%, and the export volume decreased by 19.24% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%. The import volume decreased by 11.61%, and the export volume increased by 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 10.02 US dollars/ton, down 74.95% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the import of tin ore was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. The export volume increased by 6.59%, and the average operating rate decreased by 31.77% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [13]. Supply and Inventory - The production of refined nickel products is 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory is 36,075 tons, an increase of 4.81%. Social inventory is 48,802 tons, an increase of 2.29% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures price difference is 385 yuan/ton, up 25.40% [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) is 182.17 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The basis is - 1,740 yuan/ton, down 5.45% [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. The import volume decreased by 10.30%, and the export volume decreased by 59.12% [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market is watching the Sino-US summit. The copper price was strong yesterday. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, the rapid increase in price suppresses demand. The market should focus on the marginal changes in demand and Sino-US tariffs, with the main contract supported around 87,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The alumina price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price has continued to be strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and oscillated at a high level. The cost support is strong, and the supply-demand relationship is in a tight balance. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro environment is warm. The zinc price oscillated strongly yesterday. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stable. The LME has the risk of a short squeeze, and the export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price is supported in the short term but may continue to oscillate [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low-buying strategy on dips is recommended. The market should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated yesterday. The macro sentiment has improved, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, the inventory accumulation exerts some pressure. The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price oscillated and rose slightly yesterday. The macro environment is positive, but the nickel-iron and ferrochrome prices are under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was strong yesterday. The production has increased, and the demand is optimistic. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the market watching whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 334,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The average price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1,774 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -40 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.17%. The export volume was 2,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 15.13% month-on-month. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.00% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 manufacturers) was 1.8217 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 120,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.70% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The SMM industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - The central bank's interest rate cut and the upcoming Sino - US meeting are factors affecting the market. The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price bottom, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream buyers is rising. Although short - term price increases may suppress demand, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is stabilizing at a low level, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The aluminum price is strong, with a tight - balance fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is rigidly supported, and the supply - demand is in a tight - balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints [5]. Zinc - The macro - environment is warm, and the supply of zinc is gradually increasing, but the increase may be limited. The demand is stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts, the short - term tin price may fall, but it may rise if the supply from Myanmar does not recover well [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is improving, and the cost is supported by the firm ore price. However, the inventory accumulation restricts the price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving, with increasing demand and tight raw material supply. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is pressure at the 83,000 level [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.16% to 87,905 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 21,170 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined price difference in Foshan decreased [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,290 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.32% to 285,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 160 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.20% to 121,900 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 226 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% to 41.85 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.83% to 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 320 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and the demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons [16].