1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed Chair Powell indicated that stable economic activity allows the Fed to study the impact of tariff hikes on prices and economic growth before resuming rate cuts. If not for concerns about tariffs, the Fed might have continued to gradually cut rates this year. A well - known journalist believes that if the final tariff increase is lower than Trump's April announcement, the Fed's rate - cut strategy may change [8] - For caustic soda, the spot price decline is not over, but the impact of liquid chlorine should be noted. Although the supply pressure is large, due to the rapid decline in liquid chlorine prices, the cost of caustic soda has increased, and the far - month valuation may be repaired, but the continuous rebound space may be limited [10][12] - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the price - cut inflection point is postponed. The 08 contract will fluctuate and consolidate, and it is advisable to short the 10 contract at high prices [13][19] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising, and silver continues to rise. The prices of gold and silver in various markets showed different changes in the previous trading day, including price increases, changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [20][21] - Trend intensity: Gold trend intensity is - 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [24] Copper - Copper: The strong spot price supports the price. The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of copper futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day. Macro and industry news include the US manufacturing PMI situation, trade agreement impacts, and China's copper import data [26] - Trend intensity: Copper trend intensity is 1 [28] Zinc - Zinc: The fundamentals are under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of zinc in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day. There is news about the expansion project of a lead - zinc mine [29][30] - Trend intensity: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [30] Lead - Lead: There is an expectation of a peak season, which supports the price. The relevant data of lead in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the expansion project of a lead - zinc mine [32][33] - Trend intensity: Lead trend intensity is 1 [33] Tin - Tin: Driven by the macro - environment, the price goes up. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventories of tin in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are some macro and industry news [35][36] - Trend intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [37] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity. Stainless steel: The inventory has slightly decreased, and the steel price is repaired but with limited elasticity. The relevant data of nickel and stainless steel in the industrial chain changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about nickel - related production and shutdown in Indonesia [39][40] - Trend intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [42] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate: The spot trading is light, and it runs weakly with fluctuations. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of lithium carbonate in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about lithium - related agreements [43][45] - Trend intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [45] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The upstream supply disturbances increase, and the market sentiment should be noted. Polysilicon: The market news continues to cause disturbances, and the upward space should be noted. The relevant data of industrial silicon and polysilicon in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the photovoltaic glass industry [46][48] - Trend intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 1, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [48] Iron Ore - Iron ore: The expectations fluctuate, and it fluctuates widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of iron ore in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about industrial enterprise profits [49] - Trend intensity: Iron ore trend intensity is 0 [49] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both fluctuate widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of rebar and hot - rolled coil in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about economic indicators and steel production and inventory [51][52][53] - Trend intensity: Rebar trend intensity is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend intensity is 0 [54] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Affected by the sector sentiment, they fluctuate weakly. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices [55][56] - Trend intensity: Ferrosilicon trend intensity is 0, and silicomanganese trend intensity is 0 [57] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal: Affected by the downstream environmental - protection production cuts, they fluctuate weakly. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of coke and coking coal in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about coal prices and positions [60][62] - Trend intensity: Coke trend intensity is 0, and coking coal trend intensity is 0 [62] Steam Coal - Steam coal: The daily consumption recovers, and it stabilizes with fluctuations. The trading situation of steam coal in the previous trading day is introduced, and there are news about coal prices and positions [64][66] - Trend intensity: Steam coal trend intensity is 0 [67] Logs - Logs: The main contract switches, and it fluctuates widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of logs in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the US dollar index [68][70] - Trend intensity: Log trend intensity is - 1 [70] Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - Paraxylene: Go long on the positive spread at low prices. PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA. MEG: Stop the profit of going long on PTA and short on MEG. The prices, trading volumes, spreads, and other data of paraxylene, PTA, and MEG in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about the polyester market [71][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily outlook for various commodities futures, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity is analyzed based on its fundamentals, macro and industry news, and assigned a trend strength rating [2]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have eased, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces and is expected to trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - **Alumina**: Expected to trade weakly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][19]. - **Lead**: Bullish in the medium term, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - **Tin**: Tight supply in the short term but weak expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, with weak supply and demand and low - level oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost - downward trend continues, and lithium prices may remain weak, with a trend strength of 0 [2][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a short - selling strategy, with a trend strength of -1 [2][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Pay attention to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of -1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and prices will trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41]. - **Rebar**: Subject to macro - sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Subject to macro - sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Wide - range oscillations due to sector - sentiment resonance, with a trend strength of 1 [2][47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Wide - range oscillations due to sector - sentiment resonance, with a trend strength of 1 [2][47]. - **Coke**: Stricter safety inspections, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][51]. - **Coking Coal**: Stricter safety inspections, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][51]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical uncertainties increase, and the support for the futures price weakens [2][52]. - **PVC**: Short - term oscillations, with downward pressure in the long - term [2][55]. - **Fuel Oil**: Retreated at night, and short - term strength is expected to ease [2][57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weakened in the short - term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly narrowed [2][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel policy and geopolitical risks are both positive [2][64]. - **Soybean Oil**: The short - term regression of the soybean - palm oil price spread is blocked [2][64]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rose overnight, and Dalian soybean meal oscillates [2][66]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Heilongjiang Province's reserve auction announcement has led to market adjustments and oscillations [2][66]. - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][68]. - **Sugar**: Started to rebound [2][70]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the impact of external markets [2][71]. - **Eggs**: The elimination of laying hens is accelerating [2][73]. - **Pigs**: Still waiting for spot - market confirmation [2][74]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [2][75]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract shows an oscillating trend, and hold short positions in the 10 contract [2][58]. - **Short - Fiber**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at high levels [2][62]. - **Bottle Chips**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at high levels [2][62]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating [2][63]. - **Log**: Wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the market trends and investment outlooks for various commodities on June 10, 2025, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trend intensities of each commodity to guide investors [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Gold 2508 closed at 774.72 yuan, down 1.09% [2][7]. - **Silver**: There was a technical breakthrough. The trend intensity is 2. The price of Shanghai Silver 2508 closed at 8909 yuan, up 0.70% [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of LME copper strengthened, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 78,910 yuan, down 0.03% [2][12]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a sideways consolidation. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20025 yuan, down 45 yuan [2][15]. - **Alumina**: It continued to decline. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2892 yuan, down 9 yuan [2][15]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories increased, and the price was under downward pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 21910 yuan, down 2.12% [2][18]. - **Lead**: In the short - term, both supply and demand were weak, but it was bullish in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 16765 yuan, down 0.09% [2][21]. - **Tin**: It stopped falling and rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 263,740 yuan, up 0.05% [2][25]. - **Nickel**: There was a game between real - world support and weak expectations, and the nickel price fluctuated. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 122,710 yuan [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The negative feedback led to increased production cuts, and the steel price fluctuated in a range. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,640 yuan [2][28]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related (not directly mentioned)** - **Fuel Oil**: The daytime session was weak, and it would enter an adjustment phase in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FU2507 closed at 2,927 yuan, down 0.54% [2][141]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly showed a fluctuating trend, and the spot price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the international market continued to rise. The trend intensity is 0. The price of LU2507 closed at 3,583 yuan, down 0.31% [2][141]. - **Coal - related** - **Coking Coal**: It fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is 0. The price of JM2509 closed at 780 yuan, up 1.5 yuan [2][50]. - **Coke**: It fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of J2509 closed at 1339 yuan, down 11.5 yuan [2][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand awaited release, and it fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is 0. The previous opening price of ZC2507 was 931.6 yuan [2][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There were large differences in the pressure from the producing areas, and it was bottom - grinding with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the palm - oil main contract closed at 8,182 yuan, up 0.89% [2][169]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force was temporarily weak, and it oscillated in a range. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the soybean - oil main contract closed at 7,766 yuan, up 0.36% [2][169]. - **Soybean Meal**: The weather was normal, and US soybeans closed down. Dalian soybean meal might follow the decline. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of DCE Soybean Meal 2509 closed at 3019 yuan, up 28 yuan [2][174]. - **Soybean**: The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The price of DCE Soybean 2507 closed at 4138 yuan, down 4 yuan [2][174]. - **Corn**: It trended strongly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 1. The price of C2507 closed at 2,357 yuan, up 0.90% [2][177][178]. - **Sugar**: It was in a low - level consolidation. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the futures main contract closed at 5734 yuan, down 1 yuan [2][183]. - **Cotton**: It continued to be affected by market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of CF2509 closed at 13,495 yuan, up 1.01% [2][187]. - **Eggs**: The industry still had a resistance sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Eggs 2507 closed at 2,837 yuan, down 1.18% [2][191]. - **Hogs**: Weight reduction had just started, waiting for confirmation from the spot market. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Henan's spot hogs was 13900 yuan/ton [2][193]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PK510 closed at 8,310 yuan, down 1.17% [2][196]. Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The ore price stabilized, and the weak oscillation continued. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2507 contract closed at 60,700 yuan, up 260 yuan [2][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The upward space was limited, and short - selling on rallies was recommended. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Si2507 closed at 7,475 yuan, up 185 yuan [2][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - selling on the futures was recommended. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of PS2507 closed at 34,105 yuan, down 635 yuan [2][36]. - **PTA**: Demand weakened, and the medium - term trend was weak. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the PTA main contract closed at 4602 yuan, down 1.1% [2][63][64]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the MEG main contract closed at 4256 yuan, down 0.1% [2][63][64]. - **Rubber**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the rubber main contract was 13,725 yuan, up 75 yuan [2][70][72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the butadiene - rubber main contract was 11,270 yuan, down 30 yuan [2][75]. - **Asphalt**: It followed crude oil and trended strongly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 1. The price of BU2507 closed at 3,519 yuan, up 0.28% [2][78]. - **LLDPE**: It oscillated in the short - term and still faced pressure later. The trend intensity is 0. The price of L2509 closed at 7078 yuan, up 0.08% [2][89]. - **PP**: The spot price was stable, and there was just - in - time demand. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PP2509 closed at 6932 yuan, up 0.09% [2][94]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation was under pressure due to high profits. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the 09 - contract futures was 2308 yuan [2][97]. - **Pulp**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,394 yuan, up 114 yuan [2][101][102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FG509 closed at 1006 yuan, up 1.31% [2][106][107]. - **Methanol**: It rebounded in the short - term, but the medium - term pressure was still large. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the methanol main contract closed at 2,277 yuan, up 4 yuan [2][109][110]. - **Urea**: It was in a weak operation. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the urea main contract closed at 1,697 yuan, down 23 yuan [2][114][115]. - **Styrene**: It oscillated in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Styrene 2506 closed at 7,360 yuan, up 127 yuan [2][118]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. The trend intensity is 0. The price of SA2509 closed at 1,202 yuan, down 0.91% [2][121][122]. - **LPG**: It oscillated in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PG2507 closed at 4,116 yuan, up 0.44% [2][124][126]. - **PVC**: The trend still faced pressure. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 09 - contract futures was 4816 yuan [2][136]. Others - **Log**: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2507 contract closed at 772 yuan, up 0.5% [2][58][60]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It oscillated at a high level; hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread. The trend intensity is 0. The price of EC2506 closed at 1,948.6 points, down 0.31% [2][143]. - **Short - Fiber**: It oscillated in the short - term and was weak in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Short - Fiber 2507 closed at 6388 yuan, down 6 yuan [2][162]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It oscillated in the short - term and was weak in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Bottle - Chip 2507 closed at 5868 yuan, down 32 yuan [2][162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It trended weakly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of 70g Tianyang in the Shandong market was 4950 yuan/ton [2][166][167].

2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives individual commodity trend intensities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgment. For example, the trend intensity of gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish view; copper has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][9][13]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Each commodity has its own market situation and price trend. Generally, factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - news, and cost changes affect commodity prices. For example, the cost curve of lithium carbonate is moving down, and its trend may remain weak; copper lacks driving forces and its price is in a volatile state [2][11][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: It broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different degrees of change. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 1.65%, and the overnight decline was - 0.38% [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It oscillated and declined, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of silver futures and spot also fluctuated. For instance, the daily increase of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 1.13%, and the overnight decline was - 0.15% [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: It lacked driving forces and the price was in a volatile state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international copper futures and spot changed, and there were also news about copper mines' production and cooperation [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of aluminum futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55 compared with the previous day [14][16]. - **Alumina**: It rebounded significantly, with a trend intensity of 0. The trading volume and price of alumina futures increased, and there were changes in export data [14][16]. - **Zinc**: There was a surplus in the long - term, and the price was under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [17][18]. - **Lead**: There was a weak supply - demand situation, and it was in an oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of lead futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [20][21]. - **Tin**: It was in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in nickel ore provided a bottom - support, and the conversion economy might limit the upside valuation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [27][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space was clear, but there was a lack of substantial driving forces for upward movement, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot changed [27][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost curve continued to move down, and the trend might remain weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand declined, and the market also maintained a downward trend, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The raw materials continued to decline, and they were in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [39][41]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: They were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [42][44]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: With the decline of hot metal, they were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [46][47][50]. - **Steam Coal**: The coal - mine inventory increased, and it was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [51][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: It was in a single - sided oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][56][59]. - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of PTA futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [56][59][60]. - **MEG**: It was still strong on a single - sided basis, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of MEG futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][59][61]. - **Rubber**: It was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of rubber futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [2][63][65]. Agricultural Products - The report also briefly mentions some agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis. For example, palm oil is under pressure and looking for support at the bottom, and soybean oil has increased short - term risks due to the fluctuation of US biodiesel policy [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]