Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the core contradiction throughout the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries is the "structural gap during the new - old kinetic energy conversion period." In the first half of the year, the industry was affected by external uncertainties, with intensified internal differentiation, and overall prosperity relied on policy support. In the second half of the year, with the "two new" policies further boosting domestic demand and upgrading the industrial structure, the industry is expected to achieve a systematic leap from "quantity" to "quality" expansion [2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **Upstream Materials**: In H1 2025, raw material prices were under pressure due to weak demand and Sino - US trade conflicts, showing significant differentiation. In H2, the structural differentiation will continue. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff negotiations, and climate risks [8]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it presented a differentiated pattern of "traditional under pressure, high - tech doing well." In H2, policies will support both demand and supply - side reforms, and traditional manufacturing is expected to break through cost dilemmas through intelligent and digital transformation [8]. - **Downstream Consumption**: In H1 2025, it showed a "weak recovery" pattern. In H2, the consumption market will continue to be structurally differentiated, and the recovery highly depends on policy implementation efficiency and business model innovation [9][10]. Upstream: Raw Material Price Fluctuations - **H1 2025 Situation**: Raw material prices were under pressure. Metal mining showed a divergence between black and non - ferrous metals; chemical raw materials had multi - directional fluctuations; energy sources like crude oil and coal were more differentiated; most agricultural products were at near - five - year lows [8][15]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: The price differentiation will continue. Traditional raw materials' rebound depends on supply - side reforms and policy support, while emerging demand - driven products are more resilient. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff reviews, and extreme weather [15][16]. Midstream: Short - term Stabilization, Continued New - Old Kinetic Energy Conversion - **Overall Situation**: In H1 2025, the manufacturing industry was affected by external factors, with traditional manufacturing under pressure and high - tech manufacturing supported by policies. After the tariff war, there was short - term stabilization, and both external and internal demands recovered to some extent [43][53]. - **Traditional Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, profits declined due to over - capacity and weak demand. In H2, policies will expand to more traditional manufacturing sectors, promoting transformation and efficiency improvement [59][75]. - **High - tech Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it recovered significantly compared to the beginning of the year, benefiting from strong policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to improve [69][75]. Downstream: Intensified Retail Differentiation, Weak Real Estate Recovery - **Retail Industry**: In H1 2025, online e - commerce grew due to the "trade - in" policy, while traditional physical retail was under pressure. In H2, the differentiation will continue, with emerging formats having growth potential and traditional retail relying on policy and innovation [82][93]. - **Leasing Industry**: In H1 2025, it was in a downturn. In H2, the "price - for - volume" trend will continue, and the de - stocking of commercial land will continue [92][93]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In H1 2025, it achieved "weak stabilization" under policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to recover slowly with further policy optimization and improved supply - demand balance [99][115].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. For example, the stock index is strong due to the improved macro - situation, while the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw and capital interest rates. Precious metals are influenced by geopolitical events and Fed's attitude towards interest rates. Different commodities in the futures market also have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, A - shares opened higher and rose throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.30%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, important meetings were held, and a grand celebration for the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was announced. Overseas, Trump criticized the Fed's interest - rate policy, and Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [3][4]. - **Funding**: On June 24, A - share trading volume increased significantly. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2092 billion yuan [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the current basis rate of the main contracts, with relatively stable support below the index and the need for a driving force for upward breakthrough, it is recommended to try a covered combination strategy on the CSI 1000 variety [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [6]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse repurchase operation volume increased, and MLF was incrementally renewed. The market sentiment was relatively stable, and the end - of - quarter capital fluctuations were expected to be controllable [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Although the bond market is under short - term pressure, the overall pattern may remain strong. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to economic data and capital trends, and consider positive arbitrage and curve - steepening strategies [8][9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Due to the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and Fed Chairman Powell was cautious about interest - rate cuts. Precious metals tumbled during the session but recovered some losses at the end of the session [10][13]. - **Future Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, but in the short term, it lacks a clear driving force and faces risks. Silver is supported by factors such as the recovery of the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries, but the upward drive is weakened. It is recommended to continue selling out - of - the - money call options on gold and try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options on silver [13][14]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of June 24, shipping companies' prices varied. The SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the PMI data of major economies reflected the demand situation [15]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to closely observe the shipping company's quotes in late July [16]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, but the premium decreased, and the overall trading was average [17]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME premium is controversial, and the Fed's economic outlook is moving towards "stagflation", which restricts the upward and downward space of copper prices [18][21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the production of refined copper increases, and the "rush - to - export" demand continues, but it may overdraw future demand. The inventory situation is complex, with COMEX inventory accumulating and domestic inventory slightly decreasing [19][20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [21]. Alumina - **Spot**: On June 24, the spot price of alumina in various regions decreased [21][22]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production increased in May, and the inventory situation is complex. The market is in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [22][23]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is stable, the downstream start - up rate is under pressure, and the inventory decline rate slows down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [24][25]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On June 24, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of the recycled aluminum alloy market are both weak, but the demand side is more prominent. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [26][27]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of zinc ingots increased, but the market trading was dull [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, the demand is weakening, and the low inventory provides support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 21000 - 21500 [28][30]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of tin increased, but the trading was cold. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [30][31][33]. Nickel - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in a range [34][35]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of stainless steel decreased [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range [37][39]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading did not improve significantly [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is relatively high, the demand is stable but difficult to boost in the off - peak season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price is stable, and the basis has weakened. The price is expected to weaken again in the off - peak season, and it is recommended to try short positions or sell out - of - the - money call options [44][45][46]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder has changed slightly, and the futures price has fluctuated. The demand for iron water is high, but there is a risk of weakening in the off - peak season. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in the range of 670 - 720 [47][48]. Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is weakly stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply is affected by environmental protection and other factors, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short - term buy on dips and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [49][52]. Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is close to the bottom. The supply is tightening marginally, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [53][56]. Ferrosilicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [57][58]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is difficult to stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [60][62].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货：A 股低开高走， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend with different performances in various sectors. In the stock index futures market, the major financial sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. In the bond market, the short - term uncertainty of treasury bond futures weakens, and the trend is relatively strong. In the precious metals market, gold rises due to factors such as lower - than - expected US inflation and Middle - East geopolitical tensions. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][5][8]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, major indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to 3402.32 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2506 and IH2506 rising 0.89% and 0.79% respectively, and IC2506 and IM2506 rising 0.75% and 0.83% respectively. The large - financial sector strengthened, and the basic metals, insurance, and automobile sectors led the gains, while the daily chemical, port, and pharmaceutical sectors declined [2][3]. - **News**: In domestic news, the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting made progress. Overseas, the latest US inflation data remained moderate, with the May CPI rising 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. It is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 1000 index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.23%, 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 11, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the day was 509 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank market interest rate was slightly affected, and the long - term capital interest rate was slightly higher [5][6]. - **Policy**: The Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting reached a framework consensus. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term uncertainty of treasury bond futures weakens. If there are no sudden changes in trade negotiations this week, the treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the capital situation in mid - to - late June. Unilateral strategy: appropriately allocate long positions on dips. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the TS2509 contract's positive arbitrage strategy. For the curve strategy, there is more room to steepen the curve in the medium - term [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US inflation growth was lower than expected, and Trump continued to call on the Fed to cut interest rates. The Middle - East situation heated up, driving up the price of gold. The international gold price rose 0.97% to $3355.005 per ounce, while the international silver price showed a different trend, closing at $36.215 per ounce with a 0.85% increase [9][11]. - **Outlook**: In the context of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Currently, trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts disturb the market. Gold is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3200 - $3400 per ounce in the short - term. It is recommended to continuously sell out - of - the - money gold option straddles to earn time value. For silver, pay attention to the flow of speculative funds [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotes**: As of June 11, the spot quotes of major shipping companies showed different ranges. The SCFIS European line index rose 0.5% as of June 2, and the SCFI composite index rose 30.68% as of May 30 [13]. - **Fundamentals**: As of June 10, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The demand in the eurozone and the US showed certain trends in the manufacturing and service sectors [14]. - **Logic**: The futures market fluctuated. The 90 - day tariff freeze period will be extended, which is beneficial to the 08 contract. If shipping companies raise spot prices, the 08 contract may rise. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider buying the main contract on dips, with the price expected to fluctuate between 1900 - 2200 [14]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of June 11, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased, but the spot trading weakened due to high prices [15]. - **Macro**: The spread between COMEX and LME widened again, and the US continued to replenish copper stocks, which boosted copper prices [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper in May increased. It is expected to decrease slightly in June [16]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper showed different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [17]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory continued to increase, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Logic**: The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" makes the copper price fluctuate in the short - term. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [18]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 11, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, but the spot trading was mediocre [18]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June [19][20]. - **Demand**: The initial consumption of zinc showed a slight recovery, but the terminal demand was expected to be weak after the peak season [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [22]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is in a supply - loose cycle. The zinc price may maintain a high - level shock or decline. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21000 - 23000 [22]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 11, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The actual trading was light [23]. - **Supply**: The supply recovery progress was slow, and the supply of tin ore was tight. The ban on tin ore transportation in Thailand may affect the domestic supply [23][25]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The solder开工 rate increased slightly in April, but the demand is expected to be weak in the future. The inventory decreased [24]. - **Logic**: The slow supply recovery and improved macro - sentiment drive up the tin price, but the demand is expected to be weak. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a short - selling strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [25]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of June 11, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased slightly, while the average price of imported nickel increased slightly [26]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [26]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, but the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [26]. - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remained high, while domestic social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Logic**: The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the cost support of refined nickel is slightly loose. The medium - term supply is loose, and the short - term market lacks driving force. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 118000 - 126000 [28]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of June 11, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [29]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of nickel ore was still tight, the price of nickel iron was weak and stable, and the price of chrome iron was weak [29][30]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel in June is expected to be slightly higher than that in May, and the overall supply is in an oversupply pattern [30]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased, and the futures inventory decreased [30]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market is affected by the cost and demand. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exists, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12400 - 13000 [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of June 11, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, while the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [31]. - **Supply**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is still obvious [32]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the demand may face pressure [32]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate increased last week, with the upstream and trading inventory increasing and the downstream inventory decreasing [33]. - **Logic**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The short - term market still has pressure. - **Operation Suggestion**: Observe the performance around 62,000 yuan first [34][35]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was stable with a slight increase, and the basis weakened [36]. - **Supply**: The steel production decreased slightly from the high level, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased [36]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for steel decreased, affected by the off - season and tariffs [37]. - **Inventory**: The steel inventory was approaching the inflection point of accumulation, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [38]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost support of steel was weak, and the profit of different steel products varied [39]. - **View**: The steel price rebounded recently, but the overall demand is expected to be weak. Consider short - selling on rebounds [40]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased slightly [41]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures price decreased slightly [41]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder was 57 yuan per ton [41]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [41]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased [41][42]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [42]. - **View**: The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the medium - to - long - term is bearish [42]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price fluctuated strongly, while the spot price was weak [43][45]. - **Supply**: The domestic coal mine production decreased slightly, and the Mongolian coal price decline slowed down [45]. - **Demand**: The coking plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream demand still had some resilience [44][46]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory increased, and the downstream inventory was at a medium level [44][46]. - **View**: The coking coal futures price is expected to rebound, but the spot fundamentals are lagging. Adopt an interval operation strategy [45][46]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price fluctuated strongly, while the spot price was weak [47][48]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly, affected by environmental protection [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke decreased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline [48]. - **Inventory**: The coking plant inventory increased, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased [48]. - **View**: The coke futures price is expected to rebound, but the spot fundamentals are still loose. Adopt an interval operation strategy [48]. Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The price of ferrosilicon in the main production areas was stable [49]. - **Futures**: The ferrosilicon futures price was stable [49]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of ferrosilicon was difficult to stabilize, and the profit was negative [49][50]. - **Supply**: The production of ferrosilicon increased, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia [50]. - **Demand**: The demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking was expected to decline slightly in June, and the non - steel demand was weak [50]. - **View**: The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon increased, and the price is expected to follow the coal price [50]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The price of manganese silicon in the main production areas was stable [51]. - **Futures**: The manganese silicon futures price decreased slightly [51]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon was relatively high, and the profit was negative [51]. - **Supply**: The production of manganese silicon increased slightly, and the supply pressure still existed [52]. - **Demand**: The demand for manganese silicon in steelmaking decreased slightly, and the overall demand was relatively stable [53][54]. - **View**: The supply pressure of manganese silicon still exists, and the price is expected to follow the coal price [55]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of domestic soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased significantly. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 4200 tons [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The US may have heavy rainfall, which may affect soybean production. Brazil's soybean production and export are expected to be high [56][57]. - **Market Outlook**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may ease the market sentiment, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but be cautious about chasing the rise [57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly, with different trends in different regions [58][59]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding varied by scale, and the secondary fattening sales ratio decreased [59]. - **Market Outlook**: The live pig market supply - demand situation improved slightly, but the demand was weak due to hot weather. The market is expected to fluctuate [59]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in the northeast and north - central regions increased slightly, and the port price also increased [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in Guangdong Port decreased, and the inventory in the northern four ports decreased [60][61]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by the supply - demand situation and the wheat price [61]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic sugar price is supported by high sales and low inventory, and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [62].

Group 1 - The article discusses the monitoring framework for the economic impact of tariffs in the U.S., focusing on trade, prices, and risks [6] - It highlights the significant effects of tariffs on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the support for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to improved consumer demand [18] - The article emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address "involution" in various industries, identifying sectors that may be caught in this competitive spiral [8][27] Group 2 - The analysis of April economic data indicates a transition from strong "old forces" to a recovery phase for "new forces" in the economy [15] - The article points out the challenges in service consumption recovery, which is facing a supply-demand dilemma beyond just income factors [11] - It notes the differentiation in shipping prices and the stable operation of industrial production, alongside improvements in infrastructure construction [24]

Deep Dive - The article discusses a monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariffs in the U.S., focusing on three main modules: trade, prices, and risks [6]. Hot Topics - The concept of "anti-involution" is introduced, highlighting the government's new approach to address "involution-style" competition, identifying industries potentially caught in this phenomenon [8]. - The article examines the blind spots affecting consumer recovery, noting that while goods consumption is returning to normal, service consumption faces supply-demand challenges [11]. Economic Data Review - The analysis indicates that the previous strong "old forces" in the economy are entering a decline phase, while "new forces" continue to build momentum for recovery [15]. - The fiscal data review suggests that there is still room for acceleration in fiscal policy, with tariffs significantly impacting PPI, but improving consumer demand providing substantial support for core CPI [18]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article reports on the recent U.S. CPI data, which was weaker than market expectations, while retail sales showed stronger performance [20]. - Domestic industrial production remains stable, with improvements in infrastructure projects, although shipping prices are showing divergent trends [24]. Policy Insights - The article outlines recent policy measures aimed at maintaining fair competition in the market and addressing "involution-style" competition [27]. Top Charts - The discussion on the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing highlights certain phenomena that demonstrate this characteristic [29].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 21 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for "anti-involution" measures in various industries due to increasing competition and supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the context of government policies aimed at fostering a more sustainable and efficient market environment [1][2][20]. Group 1: Reasons for Emphasizing "Anti-Involution" - The industrial sector in China is facing significant supply-demand imbalances, highlighted by a decline in capacity utilization and persistent negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which has been negative for 31 consecutive months as of April 2025 [2][8]. - Capacity utilization rates have dropped from 77.7% in Q3 2021 to 75.1% in Q1 2025, indicating underutilization of resources [2][8]. - Local governments are increasingly competing for investment, leading to "involution" in certain sectors, characterized by concentrated efforts in similar industries, aggressive policy competition, and a lack of sustainable project management mechanisms [2][14]. Group 2: Industries with Potential "Involution" Competition - The focus of the "anti-involution" policy is on four key industries: photovoltaic, e-commerce, automotive, and steel, with measures including industry regulations, anti-monopoly enforcement, and capacity adjustments [3][22]. - Based on data indicators, industries such as black metal smelting, electrical machinery, and non-metallic products are identified as having a high degree of "involution" competition due to low capacity utilization and negative PPI growth [4][24]. - Other industries potentially affected include coal mining, automotive manufacturing, chemical raw materials, and pharmaceutical manufacturing, which exhibit similar characteristics of "involution" [4][47]. Group 3: New Aspects of the Current "Anti-Involution" Measures - The current round of "anti-involution" emphasizes industry self-discipline and market mechanisms, contrasting with previous supply-side reforms that focused primarily on traditional heavy industries [5][49]. - There is a stronger emphasis on regional collaboration and technological upgrades, aiming to create a differentiated and complementary industrial development structure while promoting high-quality growth [6][49]. - The government aims to eliminate outdated capacity and improve inefficient production through targeted policies that leverage digital and green technologies [6][49].

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 2025 年 05 月 20 日 "反内卷"的新意？ ——"反内卷"系列专题之一 2025 年政府工作报告明确提出"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"；哪些行业可能存在"内卷 式"竞争，本轮"反内卷"有何不同？本文系统分析，可供参考。 ⚫ 为何当前时点强调"反内卷"？产能利用率与 PPI 双重承压，地方招商引资竞争加剧 当前我国工业领域面临供需失衡压力攀升，突出表现为产能利用率与价格体系的双重承压。 截至 2025 年 4 月，PPI 已连续 31 个月同比负增长，仅短于 2012-2016 年时期。工业产 能利用率自 2021 年三季度的 77.7%持续回落，2025 年一季度降至 75.1%。 同时，近年来各地招商引资竞争加剧，或助长部分领域"内卷式"竞争。国研院调查研究 报告显示，目前地方招商"内卷化"主要表现为四"集中"：一是集中在相同产业领域进 行招商；二是集中比拼政策优惠力度；三是集中在"大项目""大企业""全产业链"方 面招商；四是集中在"招项目"的环节上发力，"管项目"方面缺少可持续性机制。 在此背景下，2024 年底以来，政府和业界越发重视"反内卷"。2024 年中央政 ...

Economic Resilience and Growth - China's economy demonstrated significant resilience in April amidst a complex international environment, with multiple core indicators showing positive changes, indicating both resilience and structural breakthroughs [1] Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable recovery in consumption and an upgrade in service consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods showing a significant year-on-year growth, particularly in communication equipment and home appliances, which saw growth rates exceeding 19% and 13% respectively [3] - The trend towards green and smart products is evident, driven by policies such as trade-in programs, and offline consumption in leisure and dining sectors is also on the rise, reflecting an increasing attractiveness of the Chinese consumer market globally [3] Industrial Growth - Industrial growth is showing resilience, particularly in high-tech industries, with industrial added value and manufacturing growth exceeding 6%. The automotive manufacturing sector, especially in new energy vehicles, has seen remarkable growth [5] - Despite a decline in international commodity prices, the price drop in certain sectors is narrowing, indicating strong investment in infrastructure and equipment renewal, supported by a significant increase in local government bond issuance [5] Foreign Trade Dynamics - Foreign trade resilience is evident, with structural optimization occurring despite U.S. tariffs. Exports exceeded market expectations, particularly to ASEAN and India, while the share of exports to the U.S. is declining [7] - Policies supporting trade diversification have been effective, with integrated circuit exports showing a year-on-year growth of over 20% [7] Price Stability and Financial Environment - Overall price levels and the financial environment remain stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a shift from decline to increase in April, and core CPI remaining stable [9] - The financing scale in April indicates that net financing of government bonds has become a major driving force, with measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts injecting long-term liquidity into the economy [9] Future Outlook - The economic data from April suggests that new momentum is being cultivated amidst challenges, with a focus on boosting confidence, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing innovation to transform external pressures into opportunities for upgrading the economy [9]