Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to the dissipation of geopolitical premiums in the energy and chemical sectors. The markets returned to the mid - term supply - demand logic, presenting opportunities for short positions. Whether to enter the market depends on individual risk tolerance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the cease - fire, geopolitical premiums were squeezed out, and the market returned to the mid - term oversupply supply - demand logic [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term oscillatory structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was a sharp decline and a short - term break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There was an opportunity to enter short positions when the price broke through in the early morning with Iran's symbolic attack. The stop - loss was set at the 572 level [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The operating rate of styrene increased rapidly to 79%, with ample supply, weak downstream demand, and a possible shift to inventory accumulation. It was still easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: There were opportunities to enter short positions when the price broke through last night or when the cease - fire was announced this morning [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: In May, the export volume of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply increase expectation was gradually realized. Tire operating rates declined, inventories were high, and downstream demand expectations remained pessimistic [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was an increase in trading volume and a decline today, returning to the downward structure. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [11]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamental situation was one of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. Raw material butadiene would still be under pressure, and demand was extremely weak. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Supported by downstream demand, PX continued to reduce inventory, with a short - term strong fundamental situation. It was more affected by crude oil price fluctuations recently [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Previously shut - down PTA units were gradually restarting, polyester demand was weak, and the fundamental situation had weakened. It was more easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations in the short term [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The operating rate of PP units increased, supply was under pressure, and terminal demand was weak. The supply expectations of raw materials methanol and propane were affected by the Israel - Iran conflict [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol units stopped operating, increasing supply - side disturbances. Attention was needed on whether this would have a significant impact on future imports [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Maintenance volume gradually decreased, PVC supply increased, and terminal demand was insufficient. The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on PVC was relatively weak [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure may have ended. It broke through key support today, and the short - term trend may have reversed. - **Strategy**: Wait for a rebound and then enter short positions according to technical signals rather than directly entering the market [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply - side maintenance units would gradually resume operation, polyester operating rates declined, and the short - term fundamental situation weakened. It was easily affected by the geopolitical situation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There was pressure from large - scale unit production in the mid - term, with a large expected increase in supply. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, the hourly - level upward structure was under test. There was a significant decline today, testing short - term support, but it had not broken through technically. - **Strategy**: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2400 in the short term. The olefin industry's operation may continue to decline due to planned maintenance and potential load - reduction expectations. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, imports are expected to return, leading to a significant drop in methanol prices [3][4] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2379 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 28 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 896,735 lots, down 96,724 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 85,080 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,867, unchanged [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2020 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan. The East - Northwest price spread is 600 yuan/ton, down 117.5 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 241 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 306 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 346 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars. FOB Rotterdam is 285 euros/ton, up 12 euros. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 40 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 3.68 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.22 dollars [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 43.7 tons, down 3.1 tons; South China port inventory is 14.94 tons, down 3.48 tons. Methanol import profit is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 367,400 tons, down 11,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.65%, up 0.67% [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.39%, down 0.5%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.66%, up 0.96%; the acetic acid operating rate is 88.33%, down 7.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.71%, up 4.01%; the olefin operating rate is 89.22%, up 0.66%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 863 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.16%, up 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.01%, up 0.49%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 26.88%, up 1.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 26.88%, up 1.7% [3] Industry News - As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons (3.10% MoM); the pending orders of sample enterprises were 27.38 tons, down 2.83 tons (9.37% MoM). As of June 18, the total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 58.64 tons, down 6.58 tons. The overall production increased slightly. The inventory in the Northwest decreased, while some enterprises' inventory increased slightly. As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 88.97%, down 0.54% MoM [3] View Summary - Due to the short - term low arrival at ports, the port inventory decreased. The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. Attention should be paid to the change in the tradable volume in the coastal market and international situation changes [3] Tip for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | -466 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 12185 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7226 373162 | | | 611529 7339 | 287981 -353 | | | | | 手) | | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 22328 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 268569 | | | -13982 | 10036 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 2149 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 18 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 387144 8244 | | | 5800 935 | 1000 -4 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-24 地缘政治驱动油价⾛向，化⼯格局偏震 荡 美国总统周一表态，希望维持低油价，并要求美国能源生产商在美军 袭击伊朗后压低油价，原油价格因此回落。同时美国表示彻底摧毁了伊朗 的核基础设施，这一点可能也达到了美国的目的。与此同时，以色列战机 继续对伊朗的导弹系统、空军基地及福尔多核设施发动空袭。船舶跟踪数 据显示，周日有44艘油轮霍尔木兹海峡，这符合本月初以来的正常水平。 地缘政治动向决定油价波动，当前格局仍有不确定性。 板块逻辑： 油品和油化工相对于原油的估值已经出现了连续三周的压缩，假设原 油不会快速趋势走弱，化工品的格局相对原油将略略偏强，诸多品种的利 润在原油的上涨中大幅压缩，短期继续加工化工相当于在做空油价。另一 方面化工品的下游及终端对当前的高价格仍难以跟随，化工自身的上行空 间也有限。未来很可能是油价小幅调整，化工延续震荡的格局。 原油：地缘担忧缓解，油价重回弱势 LPG：地缘风险仍存，成本端支撑PG盘面 沥青：等待地缘降温，沥青期价震荡 高硫燃油：等待地缘降温，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index of the stock index sector has stable support below and needs a driver to break through above. The A - share market opened lower and rebounded, showing a phased stabilization. The international situation is changeable in the short - term, and the index will mainly fluctuate within a range. The bond market may be affected by the central bank's bond - buying situation at the end of the month. Precious metals are affected by factors such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the Fed's monetary expectations, with gold and silver prices fluctuating in certain ranges. Various industrial and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and seasonal factors, showing different price trends and market outlooks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The index has stable lower support and needs a driver for upward breakthrough. A - shares opened lower and rebounded, showing phased stabilization. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply - discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option around 6300 to form a covered combination [2] Treasury Bonds - Pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying situation at the end of the month. If bond - buying restarts, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may break through 1.6%. Otherwise, the bond market may face phased callback pressure. In the unilateral strategy, appropriate long positions can be configured on adjustments for Treasury bond futures. In the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive - carry strategy of the TS2509 contract [2] Precious Metals - Short - term news affects gold prices to fluctuate widely between $3300 - $3400. It is recommended to continue selling out - of - the - money call options. Silver prices are fluctuating in the range of $35.5 - $37. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options for Shanghai silver [2] Shipping Index (European Line) - Low airline quotes drive the EC futures to fall. The 08 main contract fluctuates narrowly between 1900 - 2200. Unilateral operations should be on the sidelines for now. Pay attention to the long - materials and short - raw - materials arbitrage operation [2] Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the iron ore market, iron - making water remains at a high level, and terminal demand shows resilience. Try short - selling on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. For coking coal, the market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, coal mine production has declined from the high level, and spot prices are weakly stable. Consider going long on coking coal at low prices or long coking coal and short coke. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the price is close to the phased bottom. Consider long coking coal and short coke [2] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, and other non - ferrous metals show different price trends and market characteristics. For example, copper has a narrow - range fluctuation in the main contract, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm and adopt a high - selling strategy for tin based on inventory and import data inflection points [2] Energy - For crude oil, geopolitical risks are still uncertain in the short - term, and fundamental factors need to be considered in the long - term. Unilateral operations should wait for the situation to become clearer. For urea, short - term demand cannot support high prices, and pay attention to agricultural demand and export conditions in July. For PX and PTA, they may be dragged down by the fall in oil prices due to the decline in geopolitical premiums [2] Chemicals - Different chemical products have different market outlooks. For example, short - fiber has an expected repair of processing fees under the expectation of factory production cuts. Bottle - chip is in the demand peak season, with an expected production cut and processing fees bottoming out [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, cotton, and eggs show different price trends and market characteristics. For example, soybeans follow the decline of US soybeans, and pay attention to subsequent weather - related speculation. Pig prices have rebounded due to hoarding and second - fattening, and the market sentiment is strong [2] Special Commodities - For soda ash, the surplus logic continues, and maintain a high - selling strategy on rebounds. For glass, the spot market's goods - moving situation has improved, and the short - term futures price has support [2] New Energy - For polysilicon, supply has increased, and the futures price has fallen with increased positions. For lithium carbonate, the futures price remains weak, and the fundamental pressure continues [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/19 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/18 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/17 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

期货热点追踪 在原油价格带动下，化工品今日多数冲高回落，伊朗甲醇装置停车、尿素出口利好消息持续发酵、纯碱 近期屡创历史新低，后市应如何看待？ 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bullish [1] - L: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PP: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PVC: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Short - term bullish [1] - Glass: Weak bullish rebound [2] - Soda ash: Low - level consolidation [2] - Caustic soda: Bearish rebound [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Bearish but with long - position opportunities [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] Core Views - The current core driver of the oil market has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict dominates oil prices, and short - term oil prices are bullish. Other chemical products are also affected by factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand, and cost [1][5]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market conditions**: On June 20, WTI rose 0.46%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC rose 2.47%. The current international oil prices are high - level volatile [4]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is geopolitical, with the Israel - Iran conflict likely to intensify. Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply: Iran's oil facilities continue to operate. Demand: OPEC forecasts 2025 and 2026 demand growth. Inventory: US commercial crude inventory decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions. Consider option strategies. Long - term, due to factors like trade wars and new energy, oil prices are expected to range between $60 - 70 per barrel. Short - term, expect high - level volatility. SC to focus on [560 - 590] [5][6] LPG - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the PG main contract closed at 4557 yuan/ton, up 1.00%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes [7]. - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, which in turn affect LPG. Cost - profit, supply, demand, and inventory all show certain trends. For example, PDH, MTBE, and alkylation开工率 increased, and port inventory decreased [8]. - **Strategy**: Double - buy option strategy. Long - term, the central price may decline. Short - term, due to geopolitics, be cautious with short positions. PG to focus on [4550 - 4750] [9] L - **Market conditions**: The L main contract showed certain price and position changes [10]. - **Basic logic**: Recent shutdown and maintenance of devices, with reduced supply expectations. Downstream demand has a slowdown in restocking. Geopolitical impact on cost weakens. Import may shrink due to the conflict. Maintenance intensity increases this week, and production is expected to decline [10]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish. Negative basis, upstream enterprises can consider selling hedging. L to focus on [7350 - 7550] [10] PP - **Market conditions**: The PP main contract price and position changed [13]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, but the terminal market has not improved substantially. Supply pressure is high in June - July. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and export margins turn negative [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish following the cost. PP to focus on [7150 - 7350] [13] PVC - **Market conditions**: The PVC main contract price and position changed [15]. - **Basic logic**: Macro - policy uncertainty and energy price fluctuations affect the market. Supply remains high, domestic demand is poor, and foreign trade has no growth space. Cost support is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish rebound following the cost. Short - term long, long - term short. V to focus on [4850 - 5050] [15] PX - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PX spot price in East China was flat, and the PX09 contract price decreased. The basis converged [17]. - **Basic logic**: PX profit improves, and domestic and foreign device loads are high. Supply and demand are expected to increase. Inventory is decreasing but still high. PXN spread is not low, and the basis is converging [18]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. PX to focus on [7020 - 7200] [18][19] PTA - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PTA spot price in East China increased, and the TA09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [20]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity. Downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing, processing fees are high [21]. - **Strategy**: Go long at low prices. TA to focus on [4930 - 5080] [21] Ethylene Glycol - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China increased, and the EG09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [22]. - **Basic logic**: Device load increases, but arrivals and imports are low. Demand is expected to weaken, downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing [23]. - **Strategy**: Look for low - long opportunities. EG to focus on [4480 - 4560] [24] Glass - **Market conditions**: The glass main contract price increased slightly, and the basis weakened [25]. - **Basic logic**: Commodity sentiment warms up, but glass mid - term demand decline has not been alleviated. In the short - term, upstream inventory accumulates, and the cost of coal - based production still has profit, so large - scale cold repair is difficult [26]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions. The 5 - day moving average provides weak support. FG to focus on [990 - 1020] [26] Soda Ash - **Market conditions**: The soda ash main contract price decreased slightly, and the basis fluctuated narrowly. Warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance ends, and new capacity is expected. Demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass weakens. Inventory accumulates, and the cost center moves down [28]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, coal prices rebound, and the cost suppresses the decline speed. Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SA to focus on [1150 - 1180] [2] Caustic Soda - **Market conditions**: The caustic soda spot price decreased, and the main contract price rebounded weakly. The basis weakened [30]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from alumina decreases. Overall demand is weakening [30]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SH to focus on [2230 - 2280] [2] Methanol - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Upstream profit is good, and domestic device load is high. Iranian supply is expected to decline due to the conflict. Demand feedback is negative, and inventory is low [2]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is short - term bullish. Lightly go long, but also pay attention to high - short opportunities. Consider going long on the 01 contract. MA to focus on [2500 - 2600] [2] Urea - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is high, but agricultural demand is expected to pick up. The Israel - Iran conflict affects international supply, and international prices are short - term bullish [2]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - position opportunities at low prices. UR to focus on [1740 - 1780] [2] Asphalt - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Price is driven by oil prices. Supply increases, inventory accumulates, and demand shows a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. BU to focus on [3750 - 3900] [2]

化工期货市场链式发展将迎来新品种 同时，我国是世界最大的纯苯生产国、消费国和进口国，近年来，纯苯产业链各端产能调整步调不一， 利润传导不畅。 中化石化销售有限公司副总经理吴光表示，纯苯期货、期权上市后，最直接的好处就是产业链各参与企 业可以通过期货工具快速、直接锁定原料采购或产品销售价格，规避价格剧烈波动风险，提高企业价格 风险管理能力。 "行业供需未来的变化会提前在期货价格中有所体现，这种价格发现功能将帮助企业更快完成供需调 节，保障企业生产经营和发展的稳定性"。吴光进一步分析称。 除了纯苯，上游原料同为石油的化工品丙烯也将迎来金融工具。 化工领域衍生品加速扩容。 6月20日，证监会发布通知，同意大商所纯苯期货和期权注册。 大商所相关负责人称，作为芳烃产业链重要原料产品，纯苯期货和期权的上市将进一步丰富化工产业风 险管理"工具箱"，提升国际价格影响力具有重要意义。 行业人士介绍称，纯苯是重要的有机化工原料，产业链上承石油和煤两大基础能源，下接合成树脂、合 成纤维、合成橡胶三大产业，终端产品涉及纺织、家电、轮胎、染料等。 "近年来受国际原油价格、全球经济形势、贸易格局、产能变化等多重因素影响，我国纯苯现货市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not eased, and EG is operating strongly. The recent Israel-Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, strongly pushing up the cost of ethylene glycol. The fire incident of three cruise ships in the Oman Bay and the expansion of the shutdown of Iranian EG plants have also contributed to the strong performance of the EG market [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$39/ton (up $4/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was 227 yuan/ton (up 77 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - Regarding inventory, different data sources show a decline in MEG inventory in the East China main port. The actual arrivals at the main port last week totaled 108,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 100,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the change in the arrival rhythm due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [2]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the domestic supply side will gradually resume in June, with a low overall load, and the supply - demand structure will still show a benign inventory reduction throughout the month. However, the cancellation and outflow of warehouse receipts will supplement the available spot in the market. Overseas supply is affected by the shutdown of Iranian plants due to geopolitical conflicts. On the demand side, the new maintenance plan of bottle - chip factories weakens the demand expectation. Future attention should be paid to the polyester production - reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials and the restart progress of large - scale EG plants [2]. - The trading strategy suggests a short - term long position, focusing on the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract yesterday was 4,539 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,547 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$39/ton (up $4/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was 227 yuan/ton (up 77 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the content Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The bottle - chip factories have new maintenance plans, resulting in a weak demand expectation. Future attention should be paid to the polyester production - reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 537,000 tons (down 27,000 tons from the previous period). The actual arrivals at the main port last week totaled 108,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 100,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the change in the arrival rhythm due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [2].