gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月01日 (原油) 上周国际油价震荡，布伦特11合约涨0.3%。俄乌、伊核谈判仍处僵局，但在近期地缘风险溢价小 幅向上修复后暂无迹象表明供应受到明显阻碍。旺季过后石油市场供应过剩压力将进一步凸显,关 注9月7日0PEC+议产会议对剩余165万桶/天自愿减产恢复的讨论，若无进一步地缘犹动原油市场下 行压力增加。 【贵金属】 周五美国公布核心PCE温和上涨符合预期，进一步稳定了9月美联储降息预期，叠加特朗普解雇库克 事件成肠美联储独立性,责金属偏强运行。国际金价通近历史高点,一旦突破则上涨可能具备一定 持续性,本周关键的美国非农数据或将决定多空走向。此外美联邦巡回上诉法院裁定特朗普关税措 施非法，关注最高法院裁决。 (铜) 上周五伦铜走出9900美元8月最高收盘价，主要受金银涨势提振，市场等待9月中旬联储兑现降息， 且部分机构关注美国失业数据的调整。国内铜市关注废铜因整顿补贴、落实反向开票成本上调后, 市场报价的调整。铜市基本面编中性,但联储降息引起的资金共振可能带动铜价短线突破上冲，少 量多单短线参与。 (铝) 周五夜盘沪铝窄幅波 ...

Core Viewpoint - The training program for promoting the Qingyuan Si Miao rice brand aims to leverage new media platforms like short videos and Xiaohongshu to enhance brand visibility and market reach in the context of rural revitalization and increasing competition in agricultural branding [4][5][6]. Group 1: Training Program Overview - The Qingyuan Si Miao rice regional public brand promotion training class will officially start on September 2, focusing on empowering modern agricultural industry development through media [12][13]. - The training will address industry pain points by offering practical courses on short video production and Xiaohongshu operations, combining theoretical knowledge with hands-on practice [14][15][16]. Group 2: Industry Context - Qingyuan Si Miao rice is one of the five hundred billion-level modern agricultural industries in Qingyuan, transitioning from a "quality product" to a "well-known brand" [4][5]. - New media platforms have become crucial channels for agricultural brands to reach consumers and open up markets [6]. Group 3: Challenges Faced - Many agricultural processing enterprises, including those in Qingyuan, face challenges such as lacking promotional strategies and the inability to generate traffic despite having quality content [8][9][10]. Group 4: Expert Involvement - The training will feature industry experts who will provide insights on short video shooting techniques and Xiaohongshu operational strategies, helping participants create engaging content that resonates with consumers [25][32][38]. - The training will be held at the intelligent processing base of Guangdong Suiyuan New Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd., a benchmark enterprise in the Qingyuan Si Miao rice industry [19][20].

Core Insights - The article highlights the unique geographical and climatic advantages of Fuling District in Chongqing, which contribute to the high-quality production of Fuling pickled vegetables, specifically the green cabbage head [1][4] - The Fuling pickled vegetable industry has transformed from a small-scale operation to a billion-dollar industry, with a projected output value exceeding 15.5 billion yuan in 2024 [1][4] Group 1: Agricultural Production - Fuling's green cabbage head, known scientifically as Brassica juncea, benefits from a 110-day growth period due to its unique latitude and climate, which includes temperatures between 3°C and 15°C and limited sunlight [1][2] - The region's purple soil, formed during the Jurassic period, is rich in essential trace elements like selenium, calcium, and potassium, enhancing the nutritional quality of the green cabbage head [1][2] Group 2: Research and Innovation - The Chongqing Southeast Agricultural Science Institute, located in Fuling, is the only research institution in China focusing on comprehensive studies of pickled vegetables, housing 1,336 varieties of mustard seed resources [2] - The institute has developed early-maturing varieties such as "Yuzhao 100," which allows for earlier market entry of fresh cabbage heads, and "ZB5," which extends the supply period to four seasons [2] Group 3: Sustainable Practices - The introduction of MVR evaporation technology allows for the recycling of saline wastewater from pickled vegetable production, converting it into reusable brine for pickling and producing soy sauce, thus achieving green development goals [3] - Fuling pickled vegetables serve as a significant source of income for local farmers, with early-maturing varieties fetching higher prices compared to regular cabbage heads, leading to increased farmer income [3] Group 4: Economic Impact - The cooperative model established in Fuling, involving "enterprises + cooperatives + farmers," provides farmers with stable income through short-term labor opportunities and profit-sharing from cooperatives [3] - The average income per mu (0.067 hectares) of green cabbage head cultivation exceeds 2,000 yuan, with individual farmers achieving a net income of over 3,200 yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Province has issued its first guiding document on "place name economy," aiming to integrate place names with various sectors such as culture, tourism, and local industries to enhance economic development Group 1: Integration of Place Names and Rural Development - The document emphasizes the deep integration of rural place name elements with rural industry development to increase agricultural efficiency, rural vitality, and farmers' income [2] - Initiatives like "Famous Rural Action" and enhancement of rural specialty industries will transform place names from mere cultural symbols into productive elements driving rural brand development [2] - The document also highlights the importance of place names in the construction of beautiful rural areas, including standardizing naming practices and improving signage to reflect local cultural characteristics [2] Group 2: Place Names and Culinary Development - The document creatively combines local cuisine with place names to create new consumption hotspots, launching activities like "Taste of Jiangsu" and "Experience Cuisine by Place Name" [3] - It aims to protect and promote local culinary culture, particularly focusing on regional cuisines such as Huaiyang, Jinling, and Su-Xi, while establishing a comprehensive system for the transmission of place names and culinary heritage [3] - The establishment of a digital promotion system for "place name + cuisine" will facilitate the creation of a "place name food map," encouraging public engagement with local culinary offerings [3] Group 3: Place Names and Cultural Tourism - The document outlines plans to leverage place names as cultural links to enhance the quality of cultural tourism in Jiangsu [4] - It proposes the development of cultural tourism routes that connect significant regional cultures and historical sites, promoting a diverse tourism experience [5] - The document also emphasizes the protection and utilization of revolutionary cultural resources, aiming to create a database of red place names and organize themed activities around historical events [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, the investment view for both soybean meal and rapeseed meal is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is complex, influenced by multiple factors such as US soybean production, domestic inventory, import policies, and feed demand. The market is expected to be in an oscillating state, and the key to future trends lies in Sino - US policies [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The USDA August report adjusted the US soybean yield and planting area, resulting in a tight supply - demand balance sheet for new - crop US soybeans in 2025/26. The domestic soybean arrival volume in September is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies. The supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease under Sino - Canadian trade policies, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [3]. - **Demand**: Short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support feed demand, but policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight may affect future pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and high pick - up volume, and the peak season of aquaculture supports rapeseed meal demand. However, wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption, and downstream transactions of soybean and rapeseed meal are cautious this week [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal inventory is rising (lower than the same period last year but still in a stockpiling cycle), and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted but remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is weak [3]. - **Profit**: Brazilian soybean crushing profit has deteriorated, while Canadian rapeseed crushing profit is good [3]. - **Valuation**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal on the futures market are currently at a neutral valuation position [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations on soybeans. China has started to release imported soybeans from reserves, and is expected to open up Australian rapeseed imports and actively apply for relevant GMOs [3]. - **Investment View**: For soybean meal, the M01 contract was weak this week due to Sino - US peace - talk expectations and reserve releases, but the tight supply - demand situation of US soybeans supports the CBOT US soybean futures market. The spread between US soybeans and Brazilian soybeans' CNF premiums has narrowed to a normal range, and it is expected that the decline of Brazilian soybeans' CNF premiums will be limited. With the support of import costs, the downside space of M01 is expected to be limited, and it is expected to move in an oscillating manner in the short term. The basis and spread trends depend on Sino - US policies. For rapeseed meal, with the absence of Canadian supply, domestic inventory is expected to decrease, but the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the supply. The RM01 contract is a off - season contract, and it is expected that the supply - demand contradiction will not be significant, and it will generally follow the oscillation of soybean meal, with attention paid to policy changes [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, and arbitrage is advised to wait and see. Risks to watch include policies and weather [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios**: In August 2025, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased. The report also shows the inventory - to - consumption ratios of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, as well as global and Canadian rapeseed over the years [35][36][45]. - **US Soybean Production and Sales**: The sowing rate and excellent - good rate of US soybeans are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans is rising, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume data are provided, and this week's US soybean exports declined [47][51][63]. - **Import and Cost**: The CNF premium of soybeans, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real are shown. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans has deteriorated, while that of Canadian rapeseed is good [70][74][77]. - **Domestic Inventory and Transaction**: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle but lower than last year, and the inventory days of feed enterprises are increasing. The inventory of domestic imported rapeseed has declined, and rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted. The transaction volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up volume is high, while the transaction volume of rapeseed meal is also presented [81][102][109]. - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: The monthly output of feed is shown, as well as the breeding profits and related data of pigs, broilers, and laying hens. Pig prices are falling [116][118][122].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in September at $954.71 per ton, higher than $910.91 per ton in August, which will increase the export tax from $74 to $124 per ton, and a 10% special tax is also imposed on palm oil [1] - As of the week ending August 24, Canadian canola exports decreased by 13.5% to 78,500 tons compared to the previous week, and from August 1 to August 24, 2025, Canadian canola exports were 434,500 tons, a 47.6% decrease compared to the same period last year, with a commercial inventory of 603,400 tons as of August 24 [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that the use of soybean oil for biofuel production in the U.S. in June rose to 1.045 billion pounds, up from 1.025 billion pounds in May, and soybean oil remains the main raw material for biodiesel in the U.S. [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Indonesia set the September reference price for crude palm oil at $954.71 per ton, up from $910.91 per ton in August, increasing the export tax from $74 to $124 per ton, and a 10% special tax is imposed on palm oil [1] - As of the week ending August 24, Canadian canola exports decreased by 13.5% to 78,500 tons compared to the previous week, and from August 1 to August 24, 2025, Canadian canola exports were 434,500 tons, a 47.6% decrease compared to the same period last year, with a commercial inventory of 603,400 tons as of August 24 [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that the use of soybean oil for biofuel production in the U.S. in June rose to 1.045 billion pounds, up from 1.025 billion pounds in May, and soybean oil remains the main raw material for biodiesel in the U.S. [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 25 to August 29, 2025, are presented in a table [3] Protein Meal Basis - No specific content provided Fat Basis - No specific content provided Fat and Oil Futures Spread - No specific content provided

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil futures and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all declined, with CBOT US soybean oil futures dropping significantly due to difficulties in redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RIN to large refineries and potential policy adjustments [4][7]. - Affected by the weakening external market, the domestic commodity market continued to decline and adjust, with a generally weak sentiment. In August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, while export demand increased month - on - month, providing support for prices. However, after the phased positive factors were gradually realized, market drivers weakened, and long - position funds reduced their positions [4][7]. - Macroscopically, the US core PCE in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. The US dollar index continued to fluctuate, and oil prices were also in a fluctuating state. Fundamentally, there may be significant resistance in redistributing the US biodiesel exemption volume for the 2023 - 2024 period to large refineries, causing US soybean oil prices to continue to fall. Malaysian palm oil is currently in a peak production period, but high - frequency data shows that the overall supply pressure is not large, which may support prices. In the short term, palm oil prices may decline and adjust [4][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From August 22 to August 29, CBOT soybean oil futures dropped 3.1 to 52.1 cents per pound, a 5.62% decline; BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 154 to 4377 ringgit per ton, a 3.4% decline; DCE palm oil futures decreased 276 to 9316 yuan per ton, a 2.88% decline; DCE soybean oil futures dropped 100 to 8358 yuan per ton, a 1.18% decline; CZCE rapeseed oil futures decreased 101 to 9789 yuan per ton, a 1.02% decline [5]. - The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also declined to varying degrees [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The continuous decline of US soybean oil prices was mainly due to the difficulty of redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RIN to large refineries and potential policy adjustments. The domestic commodity market was affected by the weakening external market and continued to decline and adjust [4][7]. - In August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, while export demand increased month - on - month. According to different data sources, the export volume from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% - 36.41% compared with the same period last month [7][8][9]. - As of August 22, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.4091 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons from the previous week and 0.2913 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory increased, palm oil inventory decreased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [9]. - As of August 29, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions decreased from the previous week, while that of palm oil increased [10]. - Short - term palm oil prices may decline and adjust, but the supply pressure of Malaysian palm oil is not large, which may support prices. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy in the fourth - quarter off - season [4][10]. Industry News - Indonesia urged the EU to immediately cancel the anti - subsidy tax on imported biodiesel after the WTO supported several key claims in Indonesia's appeal [11]. - The Indian vegetable oil industry organization IVPA urged the government to cancel the tax credit refund restrictions implemented since July 2022, stating that these restrictions have tightened operating funds and hindered industry investment [11]. - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax (SST) [11][12]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [14][38][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic prosperity generally continues to expand, with the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August showing improvements [9]. - The real estate market remains under pressure, with the sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises declining year - on - year [9]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been strengthening recently, and the market is optimistic about its continued strength until the end of this year [11]. - In the futures market, different varieties have different trends and investment suggestions, such as some being recommended for short - term observation and others for cautious trading [13][19]. - The A - share market has a mid - term bullish structure, but there may be short - term fluctuations and adjustments [23][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry Futures - On September 1, 2025, among chemical futures, coke, 20 - number rubber, plastic, polypropylene PP, and methanol showed price increases, while natural rubber, PTA, PVC, asphalt, etc. showed price decreases [6]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - China's economic indicators in August showed positive trends, and some small and medium - sized banks have cut deposit rates [9]. - The sales of real - estate enterprises continued to decline, and the automobile inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line [9][10]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been strengthening recently, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar index and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread [11]. - There are international events such as the US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's policies and the negotiation between Japan and the US on trade and investment [10]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Futures Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures are in a short - term bottom - shock situation, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the progress of new peanut acquisitions [13]. - Sugar futures are at the lower end of the range, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to support and resistance levels [13]. - Corn futures are in a state of intense multi - empty game, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the listing rhythm of new grain and the breakthrough of the pressure level [13]. - Hog futures are in an interval - shock situation, with a near - weak and far - strong monthly spread, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [13]. - Egg futures are expected to have limited further declines in the spot market, and it is recommended to continue short - selling on rebounds in the futures market [15]. - Cotton futures may be oscillating strongly in the medium - long term and are expected to decline slightly in the short term, and the range of 14000 - 14500 should be focused on [15]. - Log futures are recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850, focusing on the improvement of real - estate funds and the expected reduction in New Zealand's supply [16]. - Pulp futures are recommended for cautious long - biased operations, paying attention to the upper pressure and lower support levels [16]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea futures' UR2601 contract may continue to operate in the range of 1700 - 1820 yuan/ton, and the opening of the Indian tender should be focused on [19]. - Caustic soda futures' 2601 contract is recommended to be treated with a long - biased idea on dips [19]. - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate repeatedly and operate in an oscillating manner [19]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper futures are recommended to take a long - biased approach once the price breaks through the oscillating range upwards [19]. - Aluminum futures are expected to continue to operate at a high level [19]. - Alumina futures' 2601 contract is operating weakly, and factors such as bauxite should be focused on [21]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures' prices are expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom in the short term [21]. - Ferroalloy futures are expected to continue wide - range oscillations in the short term, and attention should be paid to capital control for hedging and caution for speculation [21]. - Lithium carbonate futures are recommended to wait and see, focusing on the policies of mines in Jiangxi, and if the support level is broken, it may test the 70000 - yuan mark [21]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - In stock index options, trend investors should pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors should go long on volatility when the underlying index rises and short on volatility when it falls [23]. - The A - share market has a mid - term bullish structure. Although there may be short - term fluctuations, the underlying logic of the market has not been falsified, and investors can reduce positions on rallies and use the 10 - day moving average as a mid - term trend watershed [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the emergence of a new generation of farmers in China, characterized by their educational background, innovative approaches, and the ability to leverage modern technology for agricultural development [1][2][3]. Group 1: New Generation of Farmers - The new farmers are not traditional figures relying solely on natural conditions; they are educated individuals who embrace modern agricultural practices and technologies [3]. - These farmers possess skills in areas such as live-streaming sales, smart machinery operation, and IoT monitoring, enabling them to respond to market demands effectively [3]. - The shift in perception of farming as a profession is evident, with more young people choosing to return to agriculture, driven by the potential for economic growth and community development [2][3]. Group 2: Importance of Talent in Rural Development - The role of talent in rural revitalization and digital village construction is increasingly recognized, with new job titles like "Rural Collective Economic Manager" being introduced [3]. - The influx of skilled individuals into rural areas not only drives industrial development but also enhances grassroots governance and cultural heritage [3][4]. Group 3: Strategies for Attracting Talent - Establishing regular training mechanisms is essential to ensure the growth of the farming profession, providing customized courses based on regional needs [4]. - Optimizing the rural business environment is crucial, including setting up special funds to address financing challenges and creating performance-based incentive systems [4]. - Providing material support, such as housing subsidies and improved infrastructure, is necessary to make rural living conditions comparable to urban areas [4].

Group 1: Industry Development - The provincial government is focusing on developing county-level industries to enhance local economic growth, particularly in Sanmenxia City [3] - Le's Tongren Sanmenxia Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is highlighted as a high-tech enterprise integrating traditional Chinese medicine cultivation, research, production, and sales [3] - Emphasis is placed on leveraging local medicinal materials and promoting collaborative innovation in traditional Chinese medicine and modern science [3] Group 2: Environmental Protection - A recent provincial meeting addressed the need for enhanced ecological environment protection measures [4] - Liu Ning emphasized the importance of ecological restoration in mining areas as part of the political responsibility to implement Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thoughts [4] - The focus is on a systematic approach to pollution control, including source reduction, process control, and end treatment [4] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The Daxian Pit Courtyard is recognized as a national intangible cultural heritage, with efforts to protect and develop it scientifically [6] - There is a call to integrate local customs and culture into tourism development, aiming to create a pillar industry from cultural tourism [6] - The government aims to promote rural revitalization through urban-rural integration and the development of a modern industrial system [6]