4月30日沪指下跌0.23%，市场两融余额为17864.83亿元，较前一交易日减少157.89亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至4月30日，沪市两融余额9097.76亿元，较前一交易日减少82.62亿元； 深市两融余额8716.69亿元，较前一交易日减少73.59亿元；北交所两融余额50.38亿元，较前一交易日减 少1.68亿元；深沪北两融余额合计17864.83亿元，较前一交易日减少157.89亿元。 分行业看，申万所属行业中，融资余额增加的行业有3个，增加金额最多的行业是银行，融资余额增加 3.25亿元；其次是美容护理、机械设备行业，融资余额分别增加784.92万元、598.69万元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有1130只，占比30.71%，其中，198股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是闽东电力，该股最新融资余额2.67亿元，较前一交易日增幅达83.24%；股价表 现上，该股当日下跌1.10%，表现弱于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有博创科技、芭薇股份，融资余额 增幅分别为69.00%、61.15%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股中，从市场表现来看，平均上涨2.67%，涨幅居前的有大 ...

截至4月30日，市场融资余额合计1.78万亿元，较前一交易日减少156.33亿元，其中，沪市融资余额 9022.97亿元，较前一交易日减少81.79亿元；深市融资余额8683.58亿元，较前一交易日减少72.87亿元； 北交所融资余额50.37亿元，较前一交易日减少1.68亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，具体到个股，4月30日共有1130只股获融资净买入，净买入金额在千万元以 上的有203只，其中26只融资净买入额超5000万元。江淮汽车融资净买入额居首，当日净买入2.46亿 元，其次是招商银行、华夏银行，融资净买入金额分别为2.09亿元、1.83亿元，融资净买入金额居前的 还有博创科技、利欧股份、闽东电力等。 分行业统计，获融资客净买入超5000万元个股中，汽车、电力设备、银行等行业最为集中，分别有6 只、4只、3只个股上榜。板块分布上，大手笔净买入个股中，主板有20只，创业板有3只，科创板有3 只。 融资客大手笔净买入个股中，从最新融资余额占流通市值比例看，算术平均值为4.34%，融资余额占比 最高的是优刻得，该股最新融资余额8.53亿元，占流通市值的比例为9.44%，融资余额占比较高的还有 祥鑫科技、 ...

[Table_Info1] 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 债券研究报告 2025 年 5 月十大转债 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 5 月十大转债如下： 中证转债指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 《2025 年 4 月转债新券点评合集》 --20250430 《特朗普还有哪些牌？》 --20250428 《转债市场一周回顾（2025/04/21-2025/04/25）》 --20250427 《关税冲击逐步显现，"四稳"兜牢民生底线— —政策及基本面周度观察（20250426）》 --20250427 《【东北资产配置】政策博弈期，大类资产怎么 看？——东北证券大类资产配置报告（第 5 期）》 --20250425 首席分析师：刘哲铭 执业证书编号：S0550524040002 18801785199 liuzm1@nesc.cn 证券分析师：薛进 [Table_Invest] [Table_Author] ① 中特转债（AAA，4 月末收盘价 107.723 元，转股溢价率 111.03%， 正股 PE-TTM 11.5） ② 山路转债（AAA，4 月 ...

固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 两轮贸易摩擦，信用债投资复盘与展望 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2017 年 8 月至 2020 年 1 月，信用债市场在中美贸易摩擦与政策对冲交织下经历四阶段演变： 第一阶段（2017.8-2018.6）利率曲线短端受益定向降准下行；第二阶段（2018.7-2018.11）政 策宽松推动短端利率下行，但财政发力与 CPI 反弹抑制长端，行业融资显著分化；第三阶段 （2018.12-2019.4）宽信用政策与贸易摩擦缓和驱动利率债短暂走牛；第四阶段（2019.5- 2020.1）"包商银行事件"引发流动性分层，信用债内部分化加剧，城投借新还旧政策驱动融资 放量，而民企利差持续走阔。整体呈现"利率债避险强化、信用债风险定价重构"格局。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% ...

美股盘初，主要行业ETF普跌，能源业ETF跌2%，金融业ETF、可选消费ETF跌超1%。 | 三优收集 | 自选基金 自选组合 | | | | | 10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业类 V | 当前价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 成交量 ÷ | | 总市值 = 年初至今 = | 0 | | 能源业ETF -... | 80.34 | -1.64 (-2.00%) | 181.99万股 | 201.19亿 | -5.48% | ( ) *** | | us XLE | | | | | | | | 金融业ETF --- | 49.19 | -0.57 (-1.16%) | 226.43万股 | 547.45亿 | +2.14% | ( ) ... | | us XLF | | | | | | | | 可选消费ET ... | 199.31 | -2.13 (-1.05%) | 14.64万股 | | 250.33亿 -10.92% | [] … | | US XLY | | | | | | | | 公用事业ET ... | 79.01 | -0. ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Market Sentiment Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is built from a structural perspective to quantify market sentiment using various sub-indicators[7] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses sub-indicators such as industry trading volatility, trading crowding, price-volume consistency, Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR 50) trading proportion, industry trend, RSI, main buying force, PCR combined with VIX, and financing balance ratio[8] - Each sub-indicator is scored based on its sentiment direction and position within Bollinger Bands. Scores are categorized as (-1, 0, 1)[8] - The final sentiment structural indicator is the 20-day moving average of the summed scores. The indicator fluctuates around 0 within the range of [-6, 6][8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market sentiment trends and provides actionable insights for timing decisions[8] 2. Model Name: Moving Average Scoring System (MASS) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates long-term and short-term trends of indices using N-day moving averages to generate timing signals[18] - **Model Construction Process**: - For N moving averages (N=360 for long-term, N=60 for short-term), scores are assigned based on the relative position of adjacent moving averages. If a shorter moving average is above a longer one, it scores 1; otherwise, it scores 0[18] - The scores are standardized to a 0-100 scale and averaged to derive the trend score at a specific time point[18] - Long/short-term timing signals are generated based on the crossover of the trend score with its 100/20-day moving average[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides clear signals for sector rotation and market style preferences, favoring value and defensive sectors in the current environment[18] 3. Model Name: RSI Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to compare the relative strength of different market styles (e.g., growth vs. value, small-cap vs. large-cap)[22] - **Model Construction Process**: - For two indices A and B, calculate the standardized ratio of their net values over a fixed period[22] - Compute the average gain (Gain) and average loss (Loss) over N days, where gains on down days are treated as 0 and losses on up days are treated as 0[22] - RSI formula: $ RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + Gain / Loss) $ - RSI values range from 0 to 100, with values above 50 indicating stronger buying pressure[22] - The model calculates 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day RSI values. When the 20-day RSI exceeds the 60-day RSI, the numerator style is favored; otherwise, the denominator style is favored[22] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies style dominance, currently favoring large-cap and value styles while noting short-term strengthening of growth and small-cap styles[22] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Market Sentiment Timing Model - Sentiment indicator value as of April 30, 2025: 0.8, indicating a recovery in market sentiment[9] 2. Moving Average Scoring System (MASS) - Short-term signals: Positive for sectors like beauty care (72.88), utilities (86.44), banking (74.58), and oil & petrochemicals (22.03)[19] - Long-term signals: Positive for sectors like banking (95.54), machinery (78.55), and steel (51.25)[19] 3. RSI Style Timing Model - Growth/Value (300 Growth/300 Value): RSI 20-day = 53.02, RSI 60-day = 50.42, favoring value[25] - Small-cap/Large-cap (SW Small/SW Large): RSI 20-day = 48.84, RSI 60-day = 53.62, favoring large-cap[25] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: RSI - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative strength of buying and selling forces over a specific period[22] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the average gain (Gain) and average loss (Loss) over N days[22] - Formula: $ RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + Gain / Loss) $ - RSI values range from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating stronger buying pressure[22] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a robust measure of market momentum and style preferences[22] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. RSI - Growth/Value (300 Growth/300 Value): RSI 20-day = 53.02, RSI 60-day = 50.42, favoring value[25] - Small-cap/Large-cap (SW Small/SW Large): RSI 20-day = 48.84, RSI 60-day = 53.62, favoring large-cap[25]

来源：世界风情画（ID：finkeeper） | 时间 | 现金和现金等价物 (亿美元) | 賞冊 (1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2019 | 641.75 | { | | 2020 | 479.9 | | | 2021 | 358.11 | 1 | | 2022 | 358.11 | ( | | 2023 | 380.22 | 1 | | 2024 | 443.33 | 2 | | 2025Q1st | 477.29 | 3 | 这正是巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司正因史上最大规模的"囤现金"潮，陷入到人们的物议纷至沓来之际——伯克希尔哈撒韦2025年一季度末现金头寸 升至3477亿美元（2024年四季度末为3342亿美元），再创历史新高。 尽管从股价变化上，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司周线上几乎看不出2025年一季度美国GDP年率下降0.1%，以及特朗普发起新贸易战导致美股普遍下跌的危机。 公司总股本甚至从2024年11月的143.67万股扩大到了143.82万股。 故伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司到2025年5月5日，总市值达到了11640.0717亿美元，比去年11月的9740.826亿美元扩 ...

对咱们投资者来说，得从鲍威尔的话里抓三个重点：第一，看他怎么评价当前通胀。如果强调"通胀回落但仍需观察"，说明美联储还是偏谨慎；要是提 到"可持续性"，那可能在为长期维持高利率铺路。第二，留意他对经济前景的描述。要是大谈劳动力市场过热，那降息预期可能要往后推；反之，若提 到"全球风险"，说不定在为未来宽松留口子。第三，关注他怎么回应政治压力。这关系到美联储的独立性，要是鲍威尔态度强硬，美元短期可能撑一撑； 要是软了，市场可能会重新定价。 哈喽各位老铁，我是帮主郑重。这两天全球资本市场都在盯着一个事儿——美联储周四凌晨的利率决议。虽说市场早有预判，但咱们做投资的，就得把 事儿往深了扒，今儿就来唠唠这背后的门道。 先给大家吃颗定心丸，根据市场预期工具的数据，美联储5月维持利率不变的概率超过96%，基本算是板上钉钉的事儿。为啥这么稳？看看最新的美国数 据就明白了：4月非农就业人数蹦到了17.7万，远超预期的13.8万，劳动力市场还是硬邦邦的；再看通胀，3月PCE物价指数同比涨2.3%，核心PCE也降到 2.6%，这俩数据就像给美联储吃了降压药，短期加息压力不大，降息更犯不上。 不过啊，这事儿没那么简单。最近白宫和美 ...

2025 年 05 月 05 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 美联储降息预期降温，波折与反复 投资要点 【债市方面】4 月宏观数据即将公布，持债待涨。4 月关税影响逐渐加大， 后续公布的通胀、金融、经济数据或将逐渐体现出压力。此外短期内政策或侧 重于落实已部署措施，增量尚需等待，利率仍有下行可能，短期耐心等待。 分析师：刘芳 【股市方面】短期内宏观数据或存在扰动，财报季过后，业绩表现较好的板 块或更受青睐。行业方面，重点关注高股息（银行、公用事业）的防御性板 块；以及业绩报盈利上行的领域，受国补影响的部分可选消费板块（消费电 子、家电等），非能源周期板块（钢铁、有色），以及 TMT、农林牧渔等。 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《落实"先手"政策，充实"后手" 储备———2025 年 4 月政治局会议解 ...

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway reported a significant decline in operating profit for Q1 2025, dropping to $9.641 billion from $11.222 billion year-over-year [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 63% to $4.6 billion, despite revenue remaining stable at $89.7 billion [1] - Investment losses amounted to $5.038 billion, primarily due to market volatility and unfavorable exchange rates [2] Financial Performance - Operating profit decreased to $9.641 billion from $11.222 billion year-over-year [1] - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $89.7 billion, roughly unchanged from the previous year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $4.6 billion, a 63% decline compared to the same quarter last year [1] Business Segments - The insurance segment faced challenges, incurring a loss of $1.3 billion due to wildfires in Southern California [1] - Energy business performed well, with net profit increasing by nearly 50%, although natural gas profits were impacted by high interest rates [1] - The investment segment suffered the most, with a total loss of $5.038 billion attributed to stock market fluctuations and currency issues [2] Market Sentiment - Despite the investment losses, Berkshire's stock price increased by 18.86% year-to-date, marking ten consecutive months of gains [3] - The price-to-book ratio reached 1.79, the highest since 2007, and the projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 25, above the S&P 500's approximate 20 [3] - The market continues to show confidence in Berkshire's long-term fundamentals, reflecting institutional trust in the company's management [3] Strategic Considerations - Berkshire holds $347.7 billion in cash, maintaining its status as a "cash king" [2] - The company expressed concerns over the uncertainty brought by the Trump administration's tariff policies and geopolitical risks, affecting product costs and supply chains [2] - Warren Buffett emphasized the importance of not using trade as a weapon, advocating for a wealthier world that benefits all [3]