Core Viewpoint - The valuation of China's consumer sector has reached a global low, presenting significant investment opportunities in specific segments and companies, as highlighted in UBS's latest report [1][2]. Valuation Insights - The consumer sector's valuation is low both historically and in global comparisons, with the 12-month forward P/E ratio for discretionary consumption approximately 40% lower than the global average, and the ratio for staples at a 10% discount [2]. Performance Metrics - The MSCI China discretionary consumption index has recorded a 35% year-to-date return, aligning closely with the 38% increase in the MSCI China index, indicating higher investor expectations in travel and entertainment sectors compared to the 10% rise in staples [3]. Business Model Innovations - UBS emphasizes the importance of business model innovation for identifying Alpha opportunities, particularly through the adoption of asset-light franchise models, which are helping some restaurant brands overcome traditional expansion barriers [3]. - Yum China is highlighted as a case study, with UBS predicting its store count could reach 30,000 by 2030, driven by lower-capital investment store formats that significantly reduce entry barriers for franchisees [3]. - UBS has also raised the long-term potential for Mixue Ice Cream to 80,000 stores, citing significant opportunities in lower-tier cities [3]. New Market Opportunities - UBS identifies structural growth potential in new markets, such as whiskey and trendy toys, as key themes for creating Alpha [4]. - The whiskey market in China is experiencing a shift in consumer preferences, particularly among women and young middle-class individuals in lower-tier cities, with UBS upgrading Baijiu Holdings to a "buy" rating due to its advantageous position in this growing segment [4]. - Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, reported a 245%-250% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, with strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the U.S. [4]. Resilience in Pet Economy - The pet food market in China is projected to grow by 8.5% year-on-year in 2024, outpacing the overall pet industry growth, with increasing consumer confidence in domestic brands providing a solid growth foundation for local leaders like Zhongchong Co., which UBS rates as a "buy" [5].

Core Insights - The film "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Chapter 1 Akaza Strikes Again" has achieved a box office of over 400 million yuan and over 1.12 million viewers in mainland China, amidst rumors of its imminent withdrawal from theaters [1] - Despite the uncertainty surrounding its screening schedule, various brands have launched collaborative products with the "Demon Slayer" IP, indicating strong market interest and potential economic impact [4][5] Group 1: Brand Collaborations - Luckin Coffee has launched a series of collaborative products with "Demon Slayer," including a high-priced coffee set that has seen significant consumer interest, demonstrating the effectiveness of IP-driven marketing [3][4] - Other brands, such as Nestlé, Uniqlo, and Pizza Hut, have also engaged in collaborations, offering themed products that have resonated well with consumers, showcasing the broad appeal of the IP [3][4] - The collaboration has extended to the collectible market, with brands like Pop Mart releasing themed blind boxes, indicating a robust demand for merchandise associated with the IP [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "Demon Slayer" phenomenon reflects a broader trend in the Chinese market where classic IPs are leveraged for consumer engagement, particularly in the rapidly growing "collaboration economy" [5][6] - The East Asian market has established a complementary relationship where Japan excels in IP creation while China focuses on consumerization, leading to mutual benefits [6][9] - The current market dynamics present an opportunity for Chinese IPs to emerge, as the reliance on foreign IPs poses risks related to high licensing costs and market volatility [10][11] Group 3: Future Directions - Industry experts suggest that Chinese IPs should focus on creating unique content that resonates with local cultural values, moving away from the perception that "two-dimensional" content is solely Japanese [11][12] - There is a call for a shift from merely importing and monetizing foreign IPs to developing and globally operating homegrown IPs, which could enhance the sustainability of the industry [13][14] - Companies like Tencent and Yu Wen Group are already exploring this direction by expanding their IP portfolios and engaging in international markets, indicating a shift towards a more integrated and self-sufficient industry structure [14][15]

Core Insights - The industry is currently in a state of chaos, with companies like Miniso aggressively signing original IP artists to enhance their market position and prepare for potential IPOs [1][3] - The competition for IP in the toy industry has intensified, with both large and small companies seeking to establish unique identities and attract consumer interest [3][6] - New entrants are exploring innovative strategies, such as collaborations with celebrities and leveraging social media for IP discovery, to differentiate themselves in a crowded market [8][11] Group 1: Miniso's Strategy - Miniso's founder, Ye Guofu, announced plans to invest 100 million yuan in IP development, having already signed 17 artists [1][3] - The company's approach may be more about channel partnerships rather than exclusive ownership, as some signed artists are linked to other licensing companies [3][8] - Miniso's emphasis on IP could pressure other companies that rely on its distribution channels, potentially leading to a reduction in exposure for many IPs [8] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The toy industry is witnessing an influx of capital and new players, with companies like Letsvan and Mitaki also signing artists and enhancing their offerings [4][6] - The traditional methods of finding IP through exhibitions are becoming less effective, prompting companies to seek new avenues for discovery, including social media platforms [10][11] - The market is evolving towards a more consumer-centric approach, where emotional value and social attributes of products are becoming increasingly important [8][11] Group 3: Designer Perspectives - Designers are becoming more aware of their negotiating power and are seeking to maintain control over their IP, leading to a shift in how they engage with larger companies [14] - The entry of new designers into the market is creating a demand for fresh ideas, as established companies struggle to keep up with changing consumer preferences [14] - The industry is at a critical juncture, with designers needing to develop business acumen to navigate the evolving landscape effectively [14]

每经记者｜谢陶 每经编辑｜唐元 11月18日，一场以"赋能IP 创领未来"为主题的成都数字文创（潮玩）专场路演活动在蓉拉开帷幕。本次活动由成都市文化产业发展促进中心主办，成都市文 化金融服务中心、成都天府文创金融科技有限公司、成都城投侠客岛企业管理有限公司承办。 活动现场，黑玩科技、栋方文化、四川漫光年文化科技等50家来自潮玩及创意产业的企业，以及成都科幻与未来产业基金、上海毕友资本、珠海厚为资本、 深圳探贝资本等10余家投资机构代表齐聚一堂，深入探讨成都潮玩产业的最新机遇与发展趋势。 本次活动，从数字文创政策宣讲，到文创企业登台路演，再到重要文创项目的签约等环节，都紧扣这座城市最新的产业发展潮流——以潮玩之名，汇聚起更 多优质产业资源，打通潮玩关键链路。 事实上，通过常态化组织IP供需对接，将进一步提升成都IP设计、生产、制造等产业链环节，聚力打造更高质量的原生供应链，吸引更多文创产品生产企业 加速来蓉落地。我们也应看到，以潮玩产业为代表的数字文创产业不断迭代升级、推陈出新的背后，离不开一个底蕴深厚的文化土壤和一个能够滋养各个市 场主体的产业生态。 聚焦企业成长难点，持续释放"政策红利" 作为一座深受年轻人 ...

Core Insights - The emotional economy in China is projected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and exceed 4.5 trillion yuan by 2029, indicating a significant growth in consumer spending focused on emotional value rather than practicality [1] - Over 40.1% of young consumers prioritize "emotional value and interest" when shopping, surpassing practicality (22.3%) and cost-effectiveness (18.7%) [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The popularity of "small shops" selling non-essential items, such as toys and collectibles, is increasing in urban shopping complexes, with these stores attracting foot traffic comparable to popular dining establishments [3][6] - The trend of emotional consumption is evident, as consumers often purchase items for their emotional benefits rather than their utility, with many shoppers admitting to buying collectibles to relieve stress [2][6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly engaging in shopping as a social activity, often visiting stores with friends to unwind and relieve stress, highlighting the importance of the shopping experience itself [2][6] - The demographic for collectible toys is expanding beyond just younger generations, with older consumers also participating in this market, driven by celebrity endorsements and a broader appeal [6] Group 3: Retail Strategy - Retailers are leveraging the emotional value of products to enhance customer experience and extend the time spent in shopping complexes, creating a consumption loop that benefits both small shops and essential retailers [8] - The integration of "small shops" into larger retail environments is seen as a strategy to diversify offerings and attract a wider audience, ultimately benefiting overall sales and foot traffic [8]

Group 1: Chinese Beverage Brands - Chinese beverage brands such as Bawang Chaji, Mixue Ice City, Nayuki, and Heytea are expanding internationally, leveraging a "culture + product" model to stand out in overseas markets [2] - Bawang Chaji's stores in Malaysia feature design elements like wooden furniture and ink wash wall decorations, creating a "Chinese aesthetic" ambiance [2] - The popularity of Chinese milk tea in Malaysia is attributed not only to taste but also to brand image, aesthetic representation, and cultural innovation [2] Group 2: Chinese Cultural Influence in Vietnam - Chinese historical dramas have gained significant popularity in Vietnam, with many young viewers actively discussing and engaging with the content [3] - Vietnamese youth are increasingly interested in Chinese culture, as evidenced by the formation of clubs dedicated to watching Chinese historical dramas [3] - The themes of loyalty, filial piety, and national sentiment in Chinese dramas resonate deeply with Vietnamese audiences [3] Group 3: Chinese Toy Brands - Chinese toy brand Pop Mart has opened 10 stores in major UK cities and plans to add 12 more by the end of 2026, indicating strong market expansion [4] - The brand Miniso has seen a significant increase in sales in the UK, with one blind box selling every three minutes, leading to a 63% sales growth over the past year [5] - Chinese toys are increasingly incorporating cultural elements, with brands like 52TOYS achieving success in Thailand through unique designs based on Chinese cultural symbols [5] Group 4: Market Trends and Consumer Engagement - The rise of Chinese trendy toys has created a fashion wave, appealing to emotional needs of consumers, which is a departure from traditional Chinese brands focused on electronics and automobiles [5] - The success of these brands in international markets highlights a new trend in cultural exchange and consumer engagement through innovative product offerings [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the unique phenomenon of Chinese companies expanding globally, with international chains selling stakes in their Chinese operations to local firms, while Chinese brands like Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Miniso establish their presence in various overseas markets [1] Group 1: Chinese Companies' Global Expansion - Chinese chain businesses are leveraging their accumulated advantages to expand internationally, showcasing a distinctive global outreach [1] - The rise of Chinese companies in the global market is attributed to the long-term accumulation of unique advantages, including a large domestic market and a culture of entrepreneurship [2] Group 2: Digital Infrastructure and Innovation - China's commitment to building a digital society has resulted in advanced infrastructure that supports various market needs, such as communication, mobile payments, logistics, and e-commerce [2] - The large pool of programmers and a young workforce provide cost advantages and human resource support for digital business development [2] Group 3: Manufacturing and Supply Chain - As the world's largest manufacturing country, China offers diverse manufacturing services, allowing entrepreneurs to efficiently combine smart manufacturing and flexible supply chains with consumer brands [2] - The robust supply chain system supports innovation and enables companies to produce high-quality, cost-effective products [2] Group 4: Market Size and Consumer Culture - China's vast market size and consumer culture that embraces new ideas create a large "application testing ground" for business innovations [2] - The digitalization of businesses allows for rapid expansion at low costs, with the ability to optimize products quickly based on user feedback and data [2] Group 5: Competitive Advantage in Global Markets - Compared to many countries, China possesses a unique combination of advanced digital economic infrastructure, a complete manufacturing system, and a large market, giving Chinese companies a competitive edge when expanding abroad [3] - Chinese companies like Douyin and Kuaishou have defined the global short video era, influencing social media trends and consumer behavior worldwide [3] Group 6: Integration of Manufacturing and Internet - China is the only country capable of deeply integrating super manufacturing capabilities with a highly developed internet, achieving large-scale commercialization [4] - This integration challenges companies to enhance supply chain efficiency and user insight while continuously evolving through trial and error [4] Group 7: New Business Ecosystem - The emergence of "new business species" is rooted in a new digital and integrated innovation ecosystem, resulting from the combination of proactive government policies and effective market dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market's concerns regarding Pop Mart's growth sustainability and single IP risk are considered excessive, with the company's core value lying in its unparalleled IP incubation and operational capabilities [1][4]. Group 1: IP Strength and Growth - The flagship IP Labubu has strong vitality, with its 4.0 version postponed to 2026 due to high demand for Labubu 3.0, and Sony Pictures is reported to have acquired the film adaptation rights, potentially enhancing the IP's global recognition [4][8]. - The company is diversifying its growth engines by actively managing online pre-sale scales to ensure sustainable IP operations, with a successful IP matrix formed around Labubu, SKULLPANDA, and CRYBABY, effectively mitigating risks [4][9]. Group 2: Global Expansion and Market Performance - Pop Mart's global expansion is exceeding expectations, particularly in the U.S. and Japan, with plans to optimize operations and deepen local market channels [6][10]. - The company aims to operate over 60 stores in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with additional plans for Canada, Latin America, and the Middle East, emphasizing localized operations and partnerships [10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Financial projections indicate significant growth, with net profit expected to rise from 1.082 billion RMB in 2023 to 23.169 billion RMB by 2027, and diluted EPS increasing from 0.807 RMB to 17.370 RMB over the same period [7]. - Citi has set a target price of 415.00 HKD for Pop Mart, representing a potential upside of 91.8% from the closing price of 216.40 HKD, based on a 28x P/E ratio for 2026 [1][13].

Group 1 - The A-share market is dominated by domestic investors, particularly public and private funds, which are highly sensitive to policy information and prefer sectors with high policy visibility [2] - In contrast, the Hong Kong stock market has seen significant gains from certain stocks, referred to as the "three sisters," with prices skyrocketing, such as Old Poo Gold rising 11 times and Pop Mart increasing by 617% [3][4] - The Hang Seng Index rose from around 17,000 to a peak of 24,800, reflecting a 40% increase, with trading volume tripling, indicating a narrative of "global value gap" [5] Group 2 - The "three sisters" in the Hong Kong market share a commonality of concentrated liquidity and sentiment-driven trading, leading to rapid corrections once sentiment wanes [6] - Despite global liquidity improvements, the Hong Kong market has struggled due to tightening local liquidity, with the overnight Hibor rising significantly, indicating a decrease in market liquidity [9][10] - The relationship between the Hong Kong market and U.S. Treasury yields is inverse; when U.S. yields rise, funds tend to flow out of Hong Kong, putting pressure on the market [12][15] Group 3 - The local liquidity tightening has been exacerbated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's interventions to maintain the currency peg, leading to increased funding costs and reduced liquidity in the banking system [16][17] - The overall economic fundamentals in Hong Kong have been under pressure, with weak domestic demand and declining profits across various sectors, although there are signs of marginal improvement [20][21] - Analysts have begun to adjust earnings expectations positively, indicating a potential shift in the economic trajectory, which could support the Hong Kong market [22][24] Group 4 - The market's recovery is contingent on two main factors: improvement in economic fundamentals and more abundant liquidity [31][33] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions adds to the volatility, with the market awaiting clearer signals on future rate cuts [35][36] - The current environment suggests that while short-term risks remain, the long-term outlook for the Hong Kong market may present more opportunities than risks [36]

Core Insights - The rise of emotional consumption reflects the psychological needs of contemporary society and is a significant driver of consumption upgrade, with the market expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2025 [1][6] Group 1: Market Trends - Emotional consumption has seen an average annual growth rate of 12% since 2013, indicating a robust market potential [1] - The emotional consumption market is projected to surpass 2 trillion yuan by 2025, becoming a key component of consumption upgrade [1] - The popularity of emotional value products, such as plush toys and aromatherapy, highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards emotional resonance and connection [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Over 90% of young consumers recognize emotional value, with nearly 60% willing to pay for it, showcasing a new consumer attitude [4] - Young consumers are increasingly seeking experiences and emotional connections rather than mere material possession, as evidenced by their engagement with interactive and community-driven products [2][3] - The transformation of traditional spaces into creative markets and experience-driven venues has led to significant increases in foot traffic and sales, reflecting the demand for unique emotional experiences [5] Group 3: Business Strategies - Companies are focusing on product innovation and brand building to enhance the overall image and competitiveness of domestic brands in the emotional consumption sector [6] - The integration of technology, education, and cultural tourism into emotional consumption is seen as a future development direction, aiming to create new economic growth engines [6] - The emphasis on visually impactful and shareable experiences in commercial spaces has resulted in notable sales increases, demonstrating the effectiveness of innovative retail strategies [6]