Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers detailed analyses and outlooks for various futures products, encompassing financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions for each product based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, market sentiment, and macro - economic policies [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: With a strong fundamental outlook, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand in certain sectors is stable. A bullish stance on tin prices is recommended, with existing long positions to be held and additional long positions to be added on price pullbacks [2]. - **Corn**: The corn market is under pressure due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices. The short - term outlook is for a downward trend, but the decline may be limited. Short - term trading is advised [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Port inventories are continuously increasing, and market sentiment is bearish. EG prices are expected to continue to decline. An EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. A bearish view on coking coal is maintained, with a recommended trading range of 1000 - 1150. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal is suggested [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market rallied on Monday, with most major indices rising. TMT sectors were particularly strong, while cyclical sectors corrected. - **News**: The Politburo meeting proposed a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026. Overseas, Trump ordered an investigation into the US food supply chain. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume increased by over 300 billion yuan, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the upcoming Fed meeting and the expected rate cut, it is recommended to lightly and gradually build a bullish spread on CSI 1000 put options on price pullbacks [6][7][8]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year contract declined, while the 10 - year contract rose slightly. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. The inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of improving the quality and effectiveness of policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to temporarily observe the market. If market sentiment improves, consider going long on Treasury bond futures with maturities of less than 10 years. A curve - steepening strategy is also suggested [9][10][12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US inflation expectations were stable, and employment data improved. Japan's GDP contracted in Q3. The Fed's "shadow chairman" was less dovish than expected, leading to a stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields. Precious metals prices continued to fluctuate. - **Outlook**: Gold prices are expected to trade sideways around $4200. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides is recommended. Silver prices are also expected to be range - bound. Platinum prices are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term but may be affected by short - term fluctuations in gold and silver prices [13][14][15]. Shipping Index (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - **Index**: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and other related indices showed a downward trend. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's PMI was above 50, while the US manufacturing PMI was below 50. - **Logic**: The futures market was volatile, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term sideways movement [18]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level and volatile. Supply concerns are growing, and demand has weakened at high prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in the long - term and take profits on short - term long positions when prices are high [19][20][23]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a weak downward trend, with high supply and inventory. It is expected to trade at the bottom, and short - term traders can consider going long on dips or selling out - of - the money put options [24][25][26]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback at high prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and domestic inventory changes [26][27][28]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to trade in a narrow range at a high level. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [29][30][31]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are at a high level and volatile. Export demand has tightened the spot market. It is recommended to pay attention to the TC inflection point and changes in refined zinc inventories [31][32][35]. - **Tin**: The fundamental outlook is strong, and prices are expected to remain strong. Existing long positions should be held, and additional long positions can be added on dips [35][37][38]. - **Nickel**: The market is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to macro - economic expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [38][39][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is expected to recover through oscillations. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production cuts and raw material price changes [41][42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is expected to trade in a wide range. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44][45][48]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures market is expected to trade at a high level and may decline. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [49][50][51]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to trade at a low level and may decline slightly. If there are existing long positions, they can be held [52][53][54]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are affected by falling raw material prices. A strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore is recommended [54][55][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to weaken. A strategy of shorting the 2605 contract on rallies is recommended [59][60]. - **Coke**: Coke prices are expected to decline. A bearish view is maintained, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal is recommended [61][62][63]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The domestic meal market is in a loose supply situation. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report. The market is expected to be weak, but the basis may strengthen [64][65][68]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are showing signs of stabilization and rebound. The futures market is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term [69][70]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are under pressure due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices. Short - term trading is advised [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a bearish situation, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly [74]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is at the bottom and trading sideways, and the domestic cotton price is expected to trade within a range [76][77]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be weak but with limited downside potential [79]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices are expected to trade sideways, and soybean oil prices are expected to decline slightly [80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube market is expected to trade in a low - level range, with limited upside potential [82]. - **Apples**: Apple prices are expected to remain stable with slow sales [83][84]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: PX prices are expected to trade in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton in the short term, with a positive medium - term outlook [85][86]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are expected to trade in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton in the short term. A TA5 - 9 low - level positive spread strategy is recommended [87][88][89]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber market is expected to see a compression of processing margins. A strategy similar to PTA is recommended [90]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips (PR)**: PR prices are expected to follow the cost trend, and processing margins are expected to be squeezed. A strategy of shorting processing margins is recommended [91][92]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: EG prices are expected to continue to decline. An EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended [93][94]. - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term outlook for pure benzene is weak, and it may follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [95][96]. - **Styrene**: Styrene prices are expected to be slightly strong in the short term, but the upside potential is limited [97][99]. - **LLDPE**: LLDPE prices are expected to trade in the range of 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton [100]. - **PP**: The 01 contract of PP is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [101]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are expected to be weak in the short term. A strategy of reducing 05MTO positions is recommended [101]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda prices are expected to continue to decline. Short positions can be held [103][104]. - **PVC**: PVC prices are expected to remain weak at the bottom [105]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices are expected to decline. Short positions can be held [106][107]. - **Glass**: Glass prices are expected to be bearish [106][108]. - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [108][109][110]. - **Synthetic Rubber (BR)**: BR prices are expected to face resistance at the upper level. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [111][112].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index**: Despite short - term uncertainties due to year - end profit - taking, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Short - term focus is on December's central meetings, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is expected to oscillate under the mixed situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improving inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [5][6] - **Precious Metals**: It is recommended to gradually liquidate long positions in gold and silver and enter a wait - and - see state [7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to maintain high or strong oscillations, but the zinc industry's long - term supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and nickel has large surplus pressure [10][11][15] - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices are gradually stabilizing, but the terminal demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils is prominent. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely [29][30][32] - **Energy Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be short - term long on dips, and oil prices should be observed for OPEC's export support willingness [46][50][52] - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the supply of live pigs is under pressure in the near - term, and the long - term supply of sugar is expected to be in surplus [74][75][87] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Politburo meeting analyzed the 2026 economic work, and the passenger car retail sales in November decreased by 8.5% year - on - year. The US bank predicts that commodities will be the best investment in 2026 [2] - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided [3] - **Strategy**: Short - term focus on December's central meetings, long - term go long on dips [4] - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: The Politburo meeting set a tone for macro policies, and China's November export and import data improved. The central bank conducted net investment [5] - **Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate, pay attention to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6] - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver fell, and the Fed's new - chair candidate's attitude became more cautious. Weak employment data had little impact on the price [7] - **Strategy**: Liquidate long positions and enter a wait - and - see state [8] 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: The copper price fluctuated, LME and domestic inventories increased, and the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [10] - **Strategy**: The copper price is expected to maintain a high level, pay attention to inventory changes and macro events [11] - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fluctuated, domestic and LME inventories changed, and the spot trading was average [12] - **Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong, and the operation interval is provided [13] - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The zinc price changed slightly, and the social inventory decreased [14][15] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strong with copper and aluminum, but the long - term supply is in surplus [15] - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The lead price rose slightly, and the domestic social inventory decreased [16] - **Strategy**: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to low inventory [16] - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: The nickel price fluctuated slightly, and the price of nickel iron rebounded [17] - **Strategy**: The nickel price may oscillate in the short - term due to the stable price of nickel iron and the warming macro - environment [17] - **Tin** - **Market Information**: The tin price rose, and the supply was disturbed by conflicts and mining suspensions [18] - **Strategy**: The tin price is likely to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [19] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price increased significantly [20] - **Strategy**: The upward trend may not be sustainable, and it is recommended to observe [21] - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose, and the inventory decreased [22] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the over - capacity and approaching cost line [23] - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly, and the social inventory decreased [25] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts to break the supply - demand deadlock [25] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The casting aluminum alloy price fluctuated, and the inventory decreased [26] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to follow the aluminum price, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [27] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils fell, and the inventory and positions changed [29] - **Strategy**: The steel price is gradually stabilizing, but the terminal demand is weak, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is high [30] - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell, and the inventory increased [31] - **Strategy**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate widely, with downward pressure in the range [32] - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The glass price rose, and the inventory decreased; the soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [33][35] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be bearish on glass and cautiously bearish on soda ash [34][35] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell [36] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to macro events and the situation of manganese ore and electricity prices [37][38] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon fell, and the inventory and production changed [39][41] - **Strategy**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [40][44] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The rubber price was weak, with potential positive factors and different views from bulls and bears [46][47] - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish strategy, short - term long on dips and hold hedging positions [50] - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The crude oil price rose, and the inventory of refined oil products changed [51] - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term, and observe OPEC's export support willingness [52] - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The methanol price changed, and the inventory decreased [53] - **Strategy**: The methanol market has pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [53] - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The urea price changed, and the inventory decreased [54][55] - **Strategy**: The urea price is expected to build a bottom, and it is recommended to go long on dips [55] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose, and the inventory and production changed [56] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on non - integrated styrene profit when the inventory reverses [57] - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose, and the inventory increased [58] - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a surplus supply, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [59] - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased [60][62] - **Strategy**: The ethylene glycol supply - demand situation is weak in the medium - term, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [63] - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose, and the inventory decreased [64] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips in PTA [65] - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The PX price rose, and the inventory increased [66] - **Strategy**: The PX is expected to accumulate inventory in December, and it is recommended to go long on dips [68] - **Polyethylene (PE) and Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The prices of PE and PP fell, and the inventory and production changed [69][71] - **Strategy**: For PE, go short on rallies for the LL1 - 5 spread; for PP, wait for the cost - side situation to change [70][72] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: The live pig price fluctuated, with different trends in different regions [74] - **Strategy**: The near - term contract is under pressure, and the far - term contract has limited downside. Retain the reverse - hedging strategy [75] - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable or rose, and the market transaction was smooth [76] - **Strategy**: The egg futures price may be over - valued, and pay attention to the upper pressure [77] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: The soybean price fell, and the domestic bean meal price and inventory changed [78] - **Strategy**: The bean meal price is expected to oscillate [80] - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: The domestic oil price fell, and the Malaysian palm oil export and production data changed [81][82] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for palm oil [83] - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price oscillated, and the production data of major sugar - producing countries changed [84][86] - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may be weak until next year's first quarter, and it is recommended to wait and see [87] - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price oscillated, and the production, inventory, and demand data changed [88][89] - **Strategy**: The cotton price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [90]

日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-09 宏观策略（黄金） 黄金 ETF 持有量微降 金价震荡收跌白银高位回落，市场等待本周美联储降息落地， 缺乏增量利多后步入盘整阶段，如果是鹰派降息落地则面临回 调风险，市场对降息 25bp 已经充分定价。 中央政治局会议召开 宏观策略（股指期货） 中央政治局会议召开 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 11 月中国出口增速超预期 短线市场调整风险或并未完全释放，但做多胜率和赔率均较此 前上升。 农产品（豆粕） 上周豆粕库存略降 美国将我国采购 1200 万吨大豆的目标延期至 2 月底，关注今晚 USDA 月度供需报告。我国 11 月进口大豆 810.7 万吨，同环比国 内大豆供应仍然充足，豆粕库存维持高位。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 中国工程机械工业协会：11 月我国挖掘机开工率为 57% 综 合 11 月中国出口大超预期，贸易顺差快速积累，前 11 月已超 1 万 亿美元，对经济形成较强支撑。出口链或成为 2026 年增长最为 强劲的板块。 钢价震荡回落，市场走弱一方面由于政治局会议并未提出明显 政策增量，市场预期转弱。另一方面在于双 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a bullish tendency but with limited operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Tin: ★★☆, representing a clear upward trend and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [1][2][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, SHFE copper increased in position and continued to rise. The spot price followed the increase. The premium of Shanghai copper and Guangdong copper changed, and the premium of Yangshan copper expanded. The refined - scrap price difference converged rapidly. The social inventory increased slightly over the weekend. There is a probability that the upward trend of SHFE copper will pause this week. If certain conditions are met, the copper price at a record high may回调. Long positions can be held based on the MA5 moving average. If there is strong position volume cooperation, the upward trend of SHFE copper may expand to 95,000 - 97,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Today, SHFE aluminum first declined and then rose in a high - level shock. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China expanded. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was basically flat compared with last Thursday. Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of aluminum price is oscillating upward, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited. It is not advisable to chase the rise. The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited follow - up increase, and attention should be paid to the possible narrowing space at the end of the year. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and it is mainly in a weak operation [2] Zinc - The expectation of domestic smelter production cuts is strong, and the expectation of overseas smelter production increase in the fourth quarter is mediocre. The supply - side constraint of zinc ingots is strengthening, supporting the upward movement of the disk. The U.S. employment data is weak, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December is strong. Zinc is not considered for short - selling allocation. The export window of zinc ingots is open, and SHFE zinc is expected to test the annual line and may even break through it [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of SHFE nickel accelerated, and the market trading was active with increasing positions. The stainless - steel market was sluggish. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled the price limit and then lowered the price. The supply side actively cut prices to sell goods, but the trading volume was cold. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel changed. The bullish themes of SHFE nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak operation with a downward - shifting center of gravity [4] Tin - The short - term two - way fluctuation range of SHFE tin is large. The MA5 moving average can be used as the boundary of strength. The supply - loss themes and actual supply constraints in 2025 are the core basis for raising the average tin price. In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, there is a high probability of a supply - side turning point, and the recovery speed is faster than demand. The social inventory of SMM tin increased. The LME 0 - 3 month spot premium decreased. The visible inventory in the two markets is neutral. Attention should be paid to the high - level risk, and a hedging strategy is still needed for medium - long - term supply - demand allocation. It is inclined that the tin price is approaching the adjustment time point [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the continuous progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the strong performance of the traditional vehicle sales peak season, and the short supply of energy - storage batteries. Some phosphoric - iron - lithium enterprises promoted price increases, but the increase amount was low. The total market inventory decreased. The price of Australian ore strengthened again. The sustainability of actual inventory and policy increments are the focus of the market, and it is regarded as a short - term strong - side fluctuation [5] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the key support level at the lower edge of the range. From the supply side, the marginal reduction effect of the dry - season production cuts in the southwest region is expected to weaken after December, and the supply pressure may gradually stabilize. From the demand side, both the silicone and polysilicon industries face demand contraction pressure in December. The inventory reduction of industrial silicon at the end of the year is still under pressure. In the short term, the orange weather warning and safety - production notice in Xinjiang may support the market sentiment, but if the actual production cuts of local factories are limited, the price may further decline [5] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened. On the supply side, the production - cut intensity of upstream enterprises has not met market expectations, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the silicon - wafer production plan in December decreased by 16% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream's willingness to accept the spot purchase price of polysilicon decreased. The current spot market is mainly supported by leading enterprises' price - holding. The announcement of new brands of polysilicon by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange last Friday had a negative impact on the market, and subsequent warehouse - receipt generation needs to be tracked [6]

有色金属周报-锌 下游观望情绪较重，锌价上方空间或有限 2025年12月8日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美联储降息预期增强，市场风险偏好提升，加之国 | | | | | 内政治局会议召开，宏观情绪整体偏暖。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋紧。国产周度TC均价环比降低200元/金属吨至 | | | | | 1,850元/金属吨，进口锌精矿指数环比下降3.5美元/干吨至 | | | | | 57.75美元/干吨。12月国内炼厂减产规模进一步扩大，对 | | | | | 锌精矿需求有所减少，但国内锌精矿供给同样偏紧，矿端 | | | | | 紧缺状况未见缓解，预计12月TC延续跌势。 | 宏观情绪偏暖，叠加供给端收缩， | | |  | 成本利润：TC持续下调，产业链利润再次从炼厂端转至矿 | 锌价走势偏强，但随着锌价不断 | 下方支撑稳 | | | 端，上周锌价走势偏强，加之副产品收益补充 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to rise steadily with a shifting center of gravity due to weekend positive news and improved market confidence [20]. - The bond market is showing a differentiated performance, with the ultra - long end facing uncertainties and the medium - short end having limited room for a "super - oversold rebound" [23]. - In the agricultural product market, most varieties are under pressure or in a volatile situation, affected by factors such as supply and demand and reports [26][27]. - The black metal market is volatile, with steel prices affected by factors like environmental protection and demand, and the prices of double - coking and iron ore showing different trends [58][62][64]. - The non - ferrous metal market is also volatile, with gold and silver prices likely to fluctuate more due to the focus on the Fed's signal, and copper prices rising due to supply concerns [68][70][78]. - The energy and chemical market is generally in a state of shock, with factors such as geopolitical disturbances, supply and demand, and cost affecting prices [112][113][117]. - The shipping market's container shipping is expected to have a short - term high - level shock, with attention paid to factors such as the increase in shipping company prices and the improvement of cargo volume [108][109]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Last week, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and on Friday, insurance and brokerage firms boosted the index. The stock index is expected to rise steadily with a shifting center of gravity. The trading strategies include going long with a light position, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using a bullish spread option strategy [20][21]. Bond Futures - The bond market showed a further differentiated performance last week. The ultra - long end was weak, and the medium - short end was relatively stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of the TF contract [23][24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The USDA is expected to see a decrease in corn and wheat planting and an increase in soybean planting. The market may be under pressure from the report, and the trading strategy is to lay out a small number of short positions [26][27]. Sugar - The international sugar price is oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is weak. The Brazilian sugar production is approaching the end of the season, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The domestic sugar production cost is high, providing some support. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and sell put options at low prices [30][31]. Oilseeds and Oils - The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil showed different trends. The palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in November, but the export was weak. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The trading strategy is to conduct high - low - band trading on the long - side [33][34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - The CBOT corn futures declined. Russia has reduced the export tariff on corn to zero. The domestic corn spot is strong, but the futures may have room for a decline. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 contract on dips and short on rallies, and to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [36][39]. Live Pigs - The live pig price showed a rebound, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The trading strategy is to wait and see and sell wide - straddle options [40][41]. Peanuts - The peanut spot price is stable, but the futures price is oscillating downward. The trading strategy is to short the 01 contract on rallies and conduct a 15 - contract reverse arbitrage [43][44]. Eggs - The egg demand is average, and the price has declined. The short - term is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - side can be considered for the far - month contracts. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [46][48]. Apples - The apple cold - storage inventory is low, providing support for the price. The trading strategy is to expect high - level oscillations and wait and see [49][51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The ICE cotton futures declined. The supply of new cotton is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be mainly oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see [53][55]. Black Metals Steel - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and steel prices are oscillating. Affected by environmental protection and demand, the short - term is expected to be in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to go short on rallies and conduct spread trading [57][58][59]. Double - Coking - The sentiment is weak, waiting for the start of winter storage. The short - term is expected to continue to be weak, but the downward space is limited. The trading strategy is to stop profiting on short positions [60][62]. Iron Ore - The price is expected to be mainly weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The trading strategy is to take a short - side view [63][64]. Ferroalloys - The price rebounds in the short - term due to cost, but the upward space is limited by demand. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - After the release of the PCE data, the prices fluctuated. The market is focusing on the Fed's signal, and the price volatility is expected to increase. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the support level of gold and go long on silver cautiously [68][70][72]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum is recommended to go long on dips, and palladium is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum, conduct a long - platinum - short - palladium spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options for platinum [73][74][75]. Copper - The copper price rose due to concerns about non - US long - term supply. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [76][78][79]. Alumina - The price is expected to be weak before the expiration of warehouse receipts. The trading strategy is to wait and see [80][83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The price is expected to be strong, with obvious fundamental support. The trading strategy is to go long [84]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price follows the aluminum price. The trading strategy is to wait and see [86]. Zinc - The price is in a wide - range oscillation. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [88][91][92]. Lead - The price is in a range - bound oscillation. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and be vigilant against macro - factors [93][94]. Nickel - The oversupply is narrowing, leading to a rebound in the price. The trading strategy is to test the resistance on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money call options [95][97]. Stainless Steel - The price is in a weak - shock state, waiting for policy stimulus. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [98][99]. Industrial Silicon - Due to environmental pressure in the northwest, the price may rebound in the short - term. The trading strategy is to stop profiting on short positions [100]. Polysilicon - With the increase in delivery brands, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The trading strategy is to go short on the long - side and use a double - buy option strategy [102][103]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply is back in focus, and the price continues to decline. The trading strategy is to buy after a sufficient correction on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money call options [104][105]. Tin - The price lacks upward momentum, and the trading strategy is to pay attention to macro - impacts and expect high - level oscillations [106][107]. Shipping Industry Container Shipping - Shipping companies are starting to increase prices in January, and the market is expected to be in a short - term high - level shock. The trading strategy is to take partial profits on long positions and conduct a 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage [108][109][110]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect a wide - range oscillation and pay attention to the spread [112][113]. Asphalt - The supply and demand are weak, and the price is in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and sell out - of - the - money call options [114][117]. Fuel Oil - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils have a weak fundamental outlook. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and pay attention to the spread [118][120]. Natural Gas - LNG is weak, and US natural gas has broken through and risen. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and use option - selling strategies [121][123]. PX & PTA - PX supply is abundant, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and conduct a reverse spread [124][126]. BZ & EB - The cost lacks support, and inventory needs to be reduced. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and sell out - of - the money call options [127][130]. Ethylene Glycol - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the price is falling. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and sell out - of - the money call options [131][132]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber factory has an expectation of inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and use a double - sell option strategy [133][134]. Bottle Chips - The demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and use a double - sell option strategy [135][137]. Propylene - High inventory suppresses the price. The trading strategy is to go short on rallies and sell call options [138][140]. Plastic PP - The price is expected to be weak. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the support level [141][142]. Caustic Soda - The price is weak. The trading strategy is to expect a weak trend and wait and see [143][146]. PVC - The price hits a new low. The trading strategy is to expect a weak trend [147][148]. Soda Ash - The price is in an oscillating state. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and pay attention to the spread [150][152]. Glass - The price is weak and oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect the supply - side contraction to determine the winter - storage strength and pay attention to the spread [153][155]. Methanol - The price is in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation [156]. Urea - The price rises and then falls. The trading strategy is to go short on the long - side and pay attention to the spread [158][161]. Pulp and Paper Industry Pulp - The spot market price has fallen from a high level. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try short positions [163][164]. Logs - The fundamental situation is weakening. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go long on a small scale [167][168]. Offset Printing Paper - The supply pressure remains high, and the market continues to decline. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go short on rallies [170][172]. Rubber Industry Natural Rubber - The warehouse receipts are accumulating, and the tire inventory remains unchanged. The trading strategy is to hold short positions on the RU01 contract and go long on the NR02 contract with a small amount [173][176]. Butadiene Rubber - The total warehouse receipts are reducing inventory, and the tire inventory remains flat. The trading strategy is to hold short positions on the BR02 contract [177][179].

Group 1: Market Overview and Asset Allocation - Global stock markets mostly rose in the week ending December 5, with A-shares performing relatively well; major commodity futures such as copper, crude oil, and aluminum increased, while gold declined; the US dollar index slightly decreased, and non-US currencies appreciated [2][11] - The report highlights the expectation of US dollar interest rate cuts and Japanese yen interest rate hikes, indicating a rebalancing of assets; the market is expected to seek certainty, with recommendations for sectors such as non-ferrous resources, chip technology, export sectors, and dividend stocks [8][9] Group 2: Domestic Equity Market Review - In the week ending December 5, the domestic equity market showed a preference for cyclical stocks over growth, finance, and consumption, with an average daily trading volume of 1.6843 trillion yuan; 17 out of 31 sectors rose, with non-ferrous metals (+5.35%), communication (+3.69%), and defense industry (+2.82%) leading the gains [19][11] - The report notes that the central bank's bond purchases in November were slightly below market expectations, but regulatory adjustments favoring equity investments are positive for the market [11] Group 3: Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report indicates a shift towards cautious sentiment in the bond market, with yields generally rising; this is attributed to increased inflation expectations and commodity price rises, alongside banks adjusting their asset portfolios due to regulatory requirements [9][21] - The report also discusses the narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential, positioning the renminbi favorably; the offshore renminbi appreciated slightly against the US dollar, reflecting strong market expectations for the currency [29][12] Group 4: Commodity Tracking - As of December 5, WTI crude oil prices experienced a slight increase to $60.08 per barrel, with US crude oil production rising to 13.815 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 302,000 barrels per day [30][31] - The report notes that geopolitical factors are expected to have a diminishing impact on oil prices in the short term, with Brent crude projected to fluctuate between $50 and $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - Codelco and Glencore have signed a preliminary agreement to collaborate on a smelter project in Chile, indicating a significant investment opportunity in the copper industry [1] Group 1: Project Details - Codelco will supply copper concentrate for the smelter, which will be constructed by Glencore in the Antofagasta region of northern Chile [1] - The smelter is expected to have an annual processing capacity of approximately 1.5 million tons [1] - The project is estimated to require an investment of between $1.5 billion and $2 billion [1] Group 2: Timeline and Future Plans - Glencore will conduct a preliminary feasibility study, with both companies aiming to finalize the agreement by mid-2026 [1] - If the project proceeds as planned, construction is expected to begin in 2030, with operations starting between 2032 and 2033 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the loss on domestic refined copper spot imports widening. The employment market shows resilience, and the expected interest - rate hike by the Bank of Japan may put pressure on global risk assets. LME copper registered warrants are being converted into cancelled warrants, indicating tight LME inventory and a structural problem in global visible inventory. The market sentiment is evolving towards an external squeeze, and the performance may remain strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The market's expectation of environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not materialize, and new production and restarting occurred, leading to a correction in the futures market. Aluminum prices have supported demand, but the demand impulse is difficult to sustain, and the upside space depends on the bulls' response to subsequent macro - dynamics [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose slightly, while Shanghai nickel fell slightly. Nickel inventory increased, and the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is weak. In the new - energy industry chain, raw materials are tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be considered to buy at low levels, but beware of macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: In terms of macro, the initial jobless claims decreased significantly, and the Bank of Japan's expected interest - rate hike may impact global risk assets. In terms of inventory, LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all increased. The conversion of LME registered warrants to cancelled warrants indicates a positive outlook for future copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 fell 1.15%, AL2601 rose 0.79%, and AD2601 rose 0.64%. The SMM alumina price fell, and the aluminum ingot spot discount widened. The aluminum rod and aluminum alloy processing fees showed different trends. The lack of expected environmental production restrictions led to a correction in the market, and the demand impulse is difficult to sustain [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.07%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.03%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased. The nickel - iron price center decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly. Raw - material support in the new - energy industry chain is weakening, and the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 4, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 2270 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 675 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 3170 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 1540.7 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged. The LME inventory was stable, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 1122 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased slightly [3]. - **Aluminum**: On December 4, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased. The LME inventory decreased by 2500 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 8439 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 126 tons, and the SHFE nickel warrants increased by 2501 tons. The active - contract import loss increased [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 increased by 0.4%. The LME inventory was stable, and the SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased by 2.9%. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory increased by 130 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - nearest contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. They have rich experience in non - ferrous metals research, focusing on different sub - sectors and providing in - depth reports and policy interpretations [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed a significant recovery in the afternoon session, with major indices turning positive and market sentiment improving, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Index rising above 26,000 points again [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.58%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.01% and 0.84%, respectively [1] - The market exhibited a low-open, high-rise trend throughout the day, indicating a strong upward momentum [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw substantial gains, with Baidu surging nearly 8% at one point and closing up 5% [1] - Financial stocks, particularly in insurance, banking, and brokerage, contributed significantly to the market's rise, following adjustments in risk factors for insurance company investments [1] - Notable performers included China Pacific Insurance, which rose over 7%, and Ping An Insurance, which increased by 6.7% [1] - Other sectors such as non-ferrous metals, including aluminum and copper, remained active, with China Aluminum and Jiangxi Copper both seeing gains of over 5% and 6%, respectively [1] - New consumption, lithium battery, brain-computer interface, military, steel, and building materials sectors also experienced upward movements [1] Group 3: Underperforming Sectors - Conversely, sectors such as airlines, dining, gaming, and gas saw declines [1] - Two newly listed stocks faced significant drops, with "Encounter Xiaomian" falling nearly 28% and "Tianyu Semiconductor" dropping over 30% [1]