在经济不确定性增加的情况下，美国企业对劳动力的需求正在减弱。有"小非农"之称的ADP就业数据在4月增长大幅放缓，远低于市场预期。 周三，ADP Research公布的数据显示，美国4月ADP就业人数增长6.2万人，是近九个月以来最慢的增长速度，不及预期的11.5万人，前值为15.5万 人。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示： 报告还揭示了工资增长方面的情况。更换工作的人的工资增长了6.9%，是自2024年12月以来的最高水平，3月为6.7%；留在原岗位的人的工资增 长了4.5%，比3月份略有放缓。 生产类工作的招聘表现优于服务类工作。 有分析称，特朗普暂停征收部分关税，已经导致一些企业暂停支出计划，这可能导致未来几个月劳动力需求减弱。此外，包括联邦承包商在内的 公司裁员公告也在增加，这些公司的合同已被美国政府效率部门取消。 密歇根大学的一项月度调查显示，消费者仍然担心未来一年失业率上升和收入增长放缓。美联储主席鲍威尔强调，美联储需要确保关税不会导致 通货膨胀持续上升，他警告称，美联储可能不得不在控制物价压力和支持劳动力市场之间做出选择。 目前，市场普遍预期2025年有四次降息。 "不安是今 ...

ADP周三报告称，由于企业准备应对美国总统特朗普对美国贸易伙伴征收关税可能带来的影响，4月招聘速度急剧放缓。 这份报告正值特朗普关税政策对企业招聘计划和更广泛经济状况影响的不确定性加剧之际。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，"不安是当前的主旋 律。雇主正试图在政策和消费者不确定性与一系列多数积极的经济数据之间取得平衡。在这样的环境下很难做出招聘决定。" 本月，美国私营部门新增就业人数仅为6.2万人，是自2024年7月以来的最小增幅，大幅低于11.5万人的预期，较3月下修后14.7万的增幅有所放缓。 数据公布后，现货黄金短线拉升，并一度重回3290美元。 ADP数据是劳工部周五公布的非农就业报告的先行指标，这两份报告可能存在显著差异。经济学家预计定于周五公布的非农就业报告将显示就业增长13.5万 人，与不包括政府就业的ADP数据不同，预计失业率将维持在4.2%不变。 工资增长也出现放缓，报告显示，留在现有岗位的员工薪资同比上涨4.5%，较3月下降0.1个百分点。然而，跳槽者薪资上涨至6.9%，上升0.2个百分点。 从行业角度来看，休闲和酒店业增幅最大，新增2.7万个就业岗位。其他录得增长的行 ...

关税和国际贸易不确定性飙升 美国4月就业大幅放缓 金十数据4月30日讯，ADP周三报告称，公司在4月份大幅放缓招聘，以应对特朗普总统对美国贸易伙伴 征收关税的潜在影响。私营部门当月就业人数仅增加6.2万人，为2024年7月以来的最小增幅，原因是关 税实施程度及招聘计划和经济状况所受影响的不确定性加剧。工资涨幅也出现了倒退，没换工作的群体 工资同比增长4.5%，较3月份减少0.1个百分点。然而，换工作的人增加到6.9%，上升了0.2个百分点。 从行业角度来看，休闲和酒店业增幅最大，增加2.7万个就业岗位。其他出现增长的行业还包括贸易、 运输和公用事业（2.1万）、金融活动（2万）和建筑（1.6万）。教育和卫生服务岗位减少2.3万个，信 息服务岗位减少8000个。 ...

Core Insights - The ADP report indicates that the median year-on-year wage growth for employment in various sectors shows slight variations from March to April 2023, with most sectors experiencing stable growth rates [1] Group 1: Wage Growth by Industry - In April, the median year-on-year wage growth for employment in the construction industry was 4.7%, unchanged from March [1] - The manufacturing sector saw a decrease in median year-on-year wage growth to 4.6% in April, down from 4.8% in March [1] - The trade, transportation, and utilities sector maintained a stable median year-on-year wage growth of 4.3% in both March and April [1] - The financial services sector experienced a slight decrease in median year-on-year wage growth to 5.1% in April, compared to 5.3% in March [1] - The professional and business services sector's median year-on-year wage growth decreased slightly to 4.3% in April from 4.4% in March [1]

1. ADP报告：4月建筑业就业人数增加1.6万人，3月增加0.6万人。 2. ADP报告：4月制造业就业人数增加0.4万人，3月增加2.1万人。 3. ADP报告：4月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人数增加2.1万人，3月减少0.6万人。 4. ADP报告：4月金融服务业就业人数增加2万人，3月增加3.8万人。 5. ADP报告：4月专业/商业服务就业人数减少0.2万人，3月增加5.7万人。 金十数据整理：ADP报告重要行业就业人数变化一览 ...

4月30日，A股市场整体涨跌互现。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3279.03点，下跌0.23%，深证成指收报9899.82点，上涨0.51%，创业板指数收报1948.03点，上涨0.83%， 北证50指数上涨2.96%。A股市场合计成交11932.82亿元，较上一交易日增加1513.9亿元。 1. A股市场全天主力资金净流出7.13亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流出26.46亿元，创业板净流入4.09亿元，科创板净流出8.13亿元。 | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2025-4-30 | -26. 46 | 4. 09 | -8. 13 | | 2025-4-29 | -19.97 | -4. 91 | -7.54 | | 2025-4-28 | -76. 36 | -84. 04 | -11. 49 | | 2025-4-25 | 35. 72 | 11. 40 | -6. 56 | | 2025-4-24 | -80. 72 | -133.38 | -17.28 | ...

[Table_Summary] GAN_GRU因子：基于前期报告《量价时序特征挖掘模型在深度学习因子中的 应用》（2024年 7月 11日）中提到的 GAN_GRU 模型，定期更新 GAN_GRU 因子自 2024年以来表现情况。其中 GAN_GRU因子为利用生成式对抗神经网 络 GAN 模型进行量价时序特征处理后再利用 GRU 模型进行时序特征编码得 到的选股因子。 表现跟踪：自 2019 年 1 月至 2025 年 4 月，月频调仓的基础上，GAN_GRU 因子在全 A 范围内 IC均值 11.73%，多头组合年化超额收益率 24.89%；截至 2025 年 4 月 28 日，GAN_GRU 最新一期 IC 为 0.22%，近一年 IC 均值为 11.44%。 因子表现：截至 2025年 4月，4月当期因子 IC排名前五的行业分别为银行、 钢铁、非银金融、纺织服饰、家用电器；近一年因子 IC 均值排名前五的行业 分别为非银金融、建筑装饰、交通运输、通信、商贸零售。4 月当期多头组合 超额收益最高的五个行业（除综合）分别为纺织服饰、基础化工、汽车、轻工 制造以及食品饮料，多头组合相对行业指数超额收益分别为 ...

Market Overview - On April 29, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index also fell by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.13%[3]. - The trading volume on April 30 was 1.04 trillion CNY, a decrease of approximately 40 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1]. Sector Performance - Industries such as beauty care, machinery, media, and light industry saw significant gains, while public utilities, oil, coal, and social services experienced notable declines[1]. - The majority of sectors showed limited upward movement, indicating a weak market structure with most sectors declining over the past five days[1]. Capital Flow - On April 29, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 4.695 billion CNY, while net inflows into the Shenzhen Stock Exchange were 4.105 billion CNY[4]. - The top three sectors for capital inflow were IT services, general equipment, and automotive parts, while the top three sectors for outflow were electricity, securities, and liquor[4]. Policy and Economic Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional 81 billion CNY in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade program[5]. - The construction of the electricity spot market is set to accelerate, with specific deadlines for various regions to transition to formal operations by 2025 and 2026[6][7]. Industry Insights - Canalys predicts that by 2025, the penetration rate of L2 and above functionalities in the Chinese market will reach 62%, a significant increase from 2024[12]. - The issuance of new funds has surpassed 300 billion CNY this year, with nearly half allocated to equity funds, indicating a recovery in the active equity fund issuance market[15].

截至4月29日，市场最新融资余额为17913.26亿元，较上个交易日环比减少13.50亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有12个行业融资余额增加，公用事业行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加3.15亿元； 融资余额增加居前的行业还有汽车、通信、家用电器等，融资余额分别增加2.60亿元、1.06亿元、1.01 亿元；融资余额减少的行业有19个，医药生物、计算机、机械设备等行业融资余额减少较多，分别减少 4.27亿元、2.76亿元、2.35亿元。 以幅度进行统计，纺织服饰行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为67.95亿元，环比增长1.28%，其次 是公用事业、煤炭、钢铁行业，环比增幅分别为0.73%、0.51%、0.45%；融资余额环比降幅居前的行业 有商贸零售、美容护理、农林牧渔等，最新融资余额分别有214.77亿元、54.29亿元、259.07亿元，分别 下降0.97%、0.83%、0.73%。（数据宝） | 农林牧渔 | 259.07 | -1.90 | -0.73 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 214.77 | -2.11 | -0.97 | | 国防军工 | ...

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for a stable and active capital market, leading insurance companies to plan for increased equity asset allocation [1] - Since the approval of the second batch of long-term stock investment trials by the financial regulatory authority, the scale has reached over 100 billion, with more insurance institutions looking to participate [1][2] - Insurance funds are increasingly focusing on core A-share assets, particularly those close to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, while also paying attention to sectors like banking, transportation, public utilities, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals [1][3] Group 2 - In the first quarter, insurance funds increased their holdings in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, steel, home appliances, and defense, indicating a shift in investment strategy [2] - Insurance institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, with a focus on stable dividend strategies and a continued emphasis on the pharmaceutical sector due to its favorable mid-term performance [3] - The expected influx of several hundred billion yuan in new capital into the market is driven by the need for insurance funds to seek absolute returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4] Group 3 - Regulatory measures to raise the equity allocation limits for insurance companies reflect a commitment to stabilize the market and boost confidence [4] - The current environment of low interest rates and asset scarcity makes high-dividend stocks a necessary choice for insurance companies, positioning them as a key focus for future equity allocations [4]