证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 11 月 14 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 10 月银行信贷增量为 2200 亿元，Wind 预期为 4600 亿元，前值为 1.29 万亿。与 去年同期相比，同比减 2800 亿元，其中居民减 5204 亿元：中长期减 1800 亿元， 短期减 3356 亿元；企业增 2200 亿元：中长期减 1400 亿元，短期持平，票据增 3312 亿元，非银减 164 亿元。 10 月银行存款增量为 6100 亿元，前值为 2.21 万亿元。与去年同期相比，同比增 加 100 亿元，其中居民减 7700 亿元，企业减 3553 亿元，非银增 7700 亿元，财政 存款增 1248 亿元。 风险提示： 对上述事件发展趋势的点评，存在由于经济增长、行业竞争、销售不及预期等变 化，而不如预期的可能。 分析师：刘笑瑜 事件： 11 月 14 日 17 点中国人民银行公布 10 月中国金融数据。 评论： 从存量上看， 10 月 M2 同比为 8.2%，Wind 预期为 8.0%，前值（9 月）为 8.4%； M1 同比为 6 ...

宏 观 研 究 金融数据 2025 年 11 月 14 日 "存款搬家"再现 10 月新增信贷 2200 亿元，同比少增 2800 亿元，主要源于居民部门。居民短贷同比少增 3356 亿元，中长贷同比少增 1800 亿元。企业贷款新增 3500 亿元，同比多增 2200 亿元，其中票 据融资同比多增 3312 亿元，短贷持平，中长贷同比少增 1400 亿元。 10 月新增社融 8150 亿元，同比少增 5970 亿元，源于政府债券和人民币贷款。人民币贷款同 比少增 3166 亿元，政府债券同比少增 5602 亿元，企业债券同比多增 1482 亿元，委托贷款 同比多增 1872 亿元，信托贷款少增 16 亿元，未贴现汇票同比少增 1498 亿元。 —— 10 月金融数据点评 事件：11 月 13 日，央行公布 2025 年 10 月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下降 0.1 个百分点 至 6.5%，社融存量同比下行 0.2 个百分点至 8.5%，M1 同比下行 1.0 个百分点至 6.2%。 核心观点："存款搬家"再现 10 月金融数据中，"存款搬家"现象在暂停一个月后再度出现。10 月居民存款同比减少约 7700 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation on November 14, 2025, with a fixed interest rate and quantity tendering method, amounting to 212.8 billion yuan for a 7-day term [1] Group 1 - The operation involved a total bid amount of 212.8 billion yuan, which was also the amount awarded [1] - The interest rate for the reverse repurchase operation was set at 1.40% [1] - The operation was managed by the Open Market Operations Department of the People's Bank of China [1]

Core Insights - Stablecoins have evolved from a conceptual tool in the cryptocurrency ecosystem to a crucial infrastructure for real-world payments, trading, and asset allocation [1] - The appeal of stablecoins lies in their operational logic and the associated risks, which vary across different types [1] Group 1: Traditional vs. Decentralized Financial Systems - The global financial system is at a crossroads, with traditional banking systems showing high costs and low efficiency, while a decentralized wave driven by blockchain technology seeks to eliminate intermediaries [4] - The 2008 financial crisis led to a fundamental questioning of the need for intermediaries, giving rise to Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer transaction experiment [4] Group 2: Types of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are categorized into four main types: 1. Fiat-backed stablecoins, which are pegged to currencies like the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio [7] 2. Commodity-backed stablecoins, such as those pegged to gold, which can still experience price volatility [8] 3. Crypto-collateralized stablecoins, which use cryptocurrencies as collateral but often require over-collateralization to maintain stability [8] 4. Algorithmic stablecoins, which aim to maintain value through smart contracts and algorithms without any backing assets [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth, with a total market cap exceeding $300 billion as of mid-2025, and on-chain transaction volumes surpassing $8.9 trillion in the first half of 2025 [9] - A core challenge in the stablecoin market is the "impossible trinity," where achieving decentralization, price stability, and capital efficiency simultaneously is difficult [9] Group 4: Regulatory and Geopolitical Implications - Stablecoins, particularly fiat-backed ones, face risks related to centralization and trust in issuers, as demonstrated by the USDC crisis following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse [11] - The rise of stablecoins poses a threat to monetary sovereignty, especially in high-inflation countries where citizens prefer stablecoins over local currencies [12] - The U.S. has strategically mandated stablecoins to be pegged to the dollar, potentially positioning them as major holders of U.S. Treasury bonds by 2030 [12] Group 5: China's Strategic Response - China is exploring the issuance of offshore RMB stablecoins and has initiated the digital RMB project to maintain control over its monetary policy while leveraging blockchain efficiency [14] - A dual strategy of promoting both digital RMB and offshore stablecoins could enhance market applications and support international payment needs for SMEs [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - In October 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion, with a growth rate of 6.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the end of September [1][2]. - The total social financing scale in October was 815 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion, with a growth rate of 8.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the end of September [1][2]. - The report highlights a seasonal slowdown in credit expansion due to insufficient demand, with corporate production activities experiencing a seasonal decline influenced by holiday periods and uncertainties from US-China tariff frictions [2][3]. Summary by Sections Loan Growth and Social Financing - New RMB loans in October were 220 billion, significantly lower than the expected 460 billion, reflecting a weak demand environment [2]. - Cumulatively, since the beginning of the year, new RMB loans totaled 15 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 trillion, indicating a low credit issuance sentiment in the second half of the year [2][3]. Credit Demand and Economic Activity - The manufacturing PMI for October was 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with both production and demand indices weakening [2]. - The report suggests that the weak demand environment is likely to persist, with a projected total new loan issuance of 16.5 trillion for the year, down 1.6 trillion year-on-year [3]. Policy and Future Outlook - The report identifies potential areas for stable credit issuance, including the expansion of policy financial tools and support for specific consumption loans [3]. - It emphasizes the importance of stabilizing credit supply to support economic recovery, particularly in the context of local government debt and consumption policies [3]. Social Financing Structure - In October, the social financing scale showed a continued downward trend, with a notable decrease in government bond issuance contributing to the slowdown [33][34]. - The report indicates that the growth rate of M2 and M1 has been declining, with M2 growth at 8.2% and M1 at 6.2% in October [40][41]. Loan Composition - The report details the composition of loans, with corporate loans showing a mixed performance, while residential loans experienced a significant decline [25][26]. - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans remained at 3.1%, indicating stable pricing in a low-demand environment [29][30]. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a cautious outlook for the banking industry, highlighting the need for policy support to stimulate credit demand and economic activity in the coming months [3][34].

四是保持汇率基本稳定。坚持市场在汇率形成中起决定性作用，发挥好汇率对宏观经济、国际收支 的调节功能，综合施策，促进预期平稳，在复杂形势下保持人民币汇率基本稳定。 五是加强风险防范化解。稳妥有序化解重点领域金融风险，持续完善金融风险监测、评估、预警体 系。 近日，中国人民银行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告（以下简称《报告》），总结前三 季度货币政策执行情况，明确下一阶段政策思路。中国人民银行有关负责人表示，中国人民银行综合运 用数量、价格、结构等多种货币政策工具，为经济回升向好和金融市场稳定运行创造了适宜的货币金融 环境。 货币政策逆周期调节效果显现 《报告》显示，今年以来，适度宽松的货币政策持续发力，在金融总量较快增长的同时，信贷结构 也在不断优化，有力支持了重点领域、重大战略和经济结构的转型升级。 一是保持货币信贷合理增长。综合运用公开市场操作、中期借贷便利、再贷款再贴现等工具，保持 流动性充裕。引导金融机构充分满足实体经济有效信贷需求，提高资金使用效率，提升服务实体经济质 效。 二是推动社会综合融资成本下降。健全市场化的利率调控框架，强化利率政策执行，有效发挥市场 利率定价自律机制作用，带动存 ...

中国央行数据显示，10月末，本外币存款余额332.92万亿元，同比增长8.3%。月末人民币存款余额 325.55万亿元，同比增长8%。前十个月人民币存款增加23.32万亿元。其中，住户存款增加11.39万亿 元，非金融企业存款增加4447亿元，财政性存款增加2.09万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款增加6.66万亿 元。10月末，外币存款余额1.04万亿美元，同比增长24.3%。前十个月外币存款增加1866亿美元。 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 815 billion, a decrease from the previous value of 3.53 trillion[2] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.5%, down from 8.7%[2] - M2 year-on-year growth was 8.2%, a decline from 8.4%[2] - New M1 year-on-year growth was 6.2%, down from 7.2%[2] Group 2: Key Insights - The continuous decrease in corporate medium to long-term loans for four months indicates a potential improvement in supply-demand balance[4] - The decline in household loans over the same period is more closely related to operational loans rather than consumer loans, which still show growth compared to 2024[4] - The significant increase in entrusted loans in October may be linked to the deployment of policy financial tools, although the impact on policy banks' balance sheets appears limited[4] - Direct financing through corporate bonds and domestic stock financing has shown consistent year-on-year growth, indicating a positive trend for high-tech and innovative enterprises[4] Group 3: Deposit Trends - Non-bank financial institution deposits increased by 770 billion year-on-year, suggesting stability in equity market transaction volumes[5] - The new M1's year-on-year decline is attributed to seasonal factors, with a notable drop from September's high growth[5] - The old M1 is expected to show a year-on-year decline, potentially dropping from 6.2% in September to around 3.4% by year-end, still above the -1.4% expected for the end of 2024[5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Economic cycle indicators have shown a shift from the upward trend observed in the first eight months of the year, with September and October maintaining a fluctuating trend[6] - The change in the enterprise-resident deposit scissors difference indicates a potential slowdown in economic activity, which could impact future corporate profits[6]

"探索投贷联动模式，鼓励银行业金融机构在风险可控前提下与外部投资机构深化合作，既能大幅分摊 风险，银行也能更全面地掌握贷款企业的经营与业务状况，还可实现风险与收益的跨期平衡。"王一鸣 表示。 他进一步提出，可通过多条路径助力新质生产力发展：发展知识产权质押融资、推动债券市场设立科技 板、壮大创业投资规模、依托股权市场支持科创企业发展、强化科技对金融服务的赋能作用等。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经杭州11月13日电 11月13日，在"太湖世界文化论坛·钱塘对话"活动上，中国国际经济交流中心副理 事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任王一鸣表示，科技创新过程的复杂性需要与之匹配的金融服务。与 商业银行贷款相比，以股权、股票为主的直接融资更有利于科技与资本的结合，也是国际上金融支持科 技创新的主流模式。 王一鸣表示，科技、产业与金融既各自独立运行，又存在内在关联。无论是科技创新还是产业创新，都 离不开金融支持，尤其是资本市场的助力。金融能在创新投入、降低风险、提升效率等方面发挥关键作 用。创新从科学研究走向大规模产业化，需跨越多个"死亡之谷"，单一创新主体往往难以独自承担全部 风险。而金融系统的核心功能恰是分散与配置 ...

11月13日，据路透社报道，知情官员透露，欧洲金融稳定官员正在讨论通过整合美国以外央行持有的美 元储备，建立一个替代美联储流动性支持机制的方案。此举的目的是在特朗普政府时期减少对美国的依 赖。相关磋商目前仍处于工作组层面，尚未到达欧洲央行决策层，且涉及欧元区内外的多家央行。欧洲 央行和美联储发言人均拒绝置评。 据路透社，一位高级央行官员指出，美联储若暗示停止货币互换，可能引发全球金融系统广泛压力。在 此情况下，央行将难以支持将美元储备借给他人。 与此同时，美联储面临来自美国总统特朗普要求降息的政治压力。特朗普政府一直对美联储政策持高度 批评态度，反复敦促美联储大幅降息。总统曾威胁撤换鲍威尔，并实际解雇了美联储理事Lisa Cook， 指控其涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。这些举措引发了外界对政府维护美联储独立性承诺的担忧，使新任美联储主 席的任命备受关注。 美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束。此前10月，美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）经过一系 列面试后，已将美联储主席候选人名单从11人缩减至5人，预计最终人选可能在明年1月提名美联储成 员。贝森特表示，他将在今年12月向特朗普提交一份候选人名单，以供挑 ...