Market Analysis - The stock market is experiencing a volatile divergence, with a slow bull market continuing. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12 points, remaining flat, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% to 3242.90 points. The total market turnover was 2.16 trillion, maintaining above 2 trillion for three consecutive days, indicating a further increase in market divergence [2][5][7]. Sector Performance - The technology sector is leading the market, particularly driven by the robotics concept, which saw significant gains. Notable increases include Yushun Robotics up by 3.66% and other related stocks reaching their daily limit. The establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence is expected to catalyze growth in this sector [5][6][7]. - Conversely, the consumer sector is under pressure, with declines in retail, transportation, real estate, and consumer services, attributed to profit-taking after previous gains from stimulus policies [5][6]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the slow bull market remains intact, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points and a stable turnover of around 2 trillion providing ample liquidity. The market's financing balance has surpassed 2.5 trillion, and the depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to attract foreign investment, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring industry catalysts, particularly in technology and resource sectors, as the market is currently experiencing a combination of technological growth and resource cycle trends [7][9]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market is showing a mixed trend, with the long-end of the government bond futures leading gains. The 30-year government bond futures closed at 111.83, up by 0.17%, while the 10-year futures slightly declined. The liquidity expectations for the year-end remain stable, with the interbank market continuing to show a loose funding environment [10][11]. Commodity Market Overview - The commodity index has risen, but precious metals are experiencing increased volatility. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 0.43%, while precious metals like platinum and palladium faced significant declines of 13%. The market sentiment is influenced by profit-taking and regulatory tightening in trading policies [9][14]. - Industrial products are rebounding, particularly those related to domestic demand, as the government continues to push for anti-involution policies, which are expected to impact supply and pricing dynamics positively [14]. Recent Trading Hotspots - Key trading hotspots include precious metals, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, with each sector having specific catalysts and monitoring points for future developments [11][12][13].

12月30日，财政部、税务总局联合发布关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告，明确调整个人售房增值税 征收标准，该公告自2026年1月1日起正式施行。 根据公告内容，个人（不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人）将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的 征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。与此同时， 《财政部国家税务总局关于全面推开营业税改征增值税试点的通知》（财税〔2016〕36号）附件3《营 业税改征增值税试点过渡政策的规定》第五条第一款同步停止执行。对于2026年1月1日前个人销售住房 涉及的增值税尚未申报缴纳的，符合本公告规定的可按新政策执行。 深圳乐有家的数据测算显示，以个人购买过户价500万元的住房为例，若购买不足2年对外销售，按照新 政策执行后，增值税可节省9.25万元，直观体现了政策对交易成本的降低作用。 影响：降低成本，释放购房需求 广东省城规院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉指出，此次新政的核心影响在于将持有2年以下住房 的售房增值税率从5%降至3%，直接实现2年以内房产交易成本下降2%，而持有2年以上住房的免税政策 保持不变。 关于税费政策调整的原因，李宇嘉 ...

Economic Overview - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight recovery, reaching 5.22% as of December 21, up 0.06 percentage points from the previous week [2] - Real estate sales are improving, with the year-on-year decline in residential property transaction area narrowing to -19% for the week ending December 26, compared to -34% in November [2][3] - Infrastructure construction is seeing improvements, with the operating rate of asphalt plants rising to 31.3%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous week [2][3] Price Trends - Prices of major commodities have increased, with COMEX gold closing at $4546.2 per ounce (up 4.6%), LME copper at $12218 per ton (up 4.1%), and Brent crude oil at $60.6 per barrel (up 1.4%) [2][34] - The price of second-hand homes has decreased by 0.2% in first-tier cities and nationwide, with a cumulative decline of 6.3% in first-tier cities this year [37] Consumer Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars remain low, with a year-on-year growth rate of -11% in the third week of December, compared to -17% previously [13] - The average land premium rate across 100 cities was 1.6% in December, down from 2.7% in November [13] Production Insights - The operating rates in various industries are weak, with notable declines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines and full-steel tires [15] - The asphalt plant operating rate has improved, indicating a slight recovery in infrastructure [15] Trade Dynamics - Port container throughput has decreased by 5.9% week-on-week as of December 21, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [19] - The shipping market is showing positive trends, with the Shanghai export container freight index rising by 6.7% [20] Interest Rates - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are reported at 1.2872%, 1.5948%, and 1.8376% respectively, with mixed changes compared to the previous week [47]

另据麟评居住大数据研究院监测数据显示，2025年12月100个重点城市二手住宅市场均价为13531元/平 方米，环比下跌0.43%，同比下跌4.3%，环比跌幅较上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，一线城市市场均价为 52885元/平方米，环比下跌0.36%，同比下跌4.99%。该机构认为，2025年房地产市场价格仍在探底中， 止跌回稳的效果并不显著，从累计数据上看，2025年降幅较2024年有所收窄，从2024年的快速下跌转入 到缓慢下跌的阶段。2026年的房地产市场政策将会持续宽松，房价跌幅将会继续收窄，核心城市、核心 区域的房价将会实现真正意义上的止跌回稳。 12月30日，财政部、税务总局联合发布关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告。公告提到，个人(不含个 体工商户中的一般纳税人)将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人 将购买2年以上(含2年)的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。本公告自2026年1月1日起施行。 在业内人士看来，此次个人销售住房增值税新政核心变化主要是税率的调整，此前个人销售购买不足2 年的住房按5%征收率缴增值税，新规将该税率降至3%。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李 ...

Group 1: Construction and Industrial Production - Recent construction starts have shown a seasonal recovery, with residential construction performing better than infrastructure projects[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, although some sectors, such as high furnace and coking, have weakened[2] - Cement supply for infrastructure projects has decreased month-on-month, with a larger year-on-year decline, while residential cement usage has seen a smaller month-on-month change and a narrowing year-on-year decline[2] Group 2: Demand and Sales Trends - Overall demand in construction remains weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical lows[3] - Passenger vehicle sales continue to show negative growth year-on-year, while online sales of major home appliances have weakened further[3] - The average transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities increased by 44% compared to the previous two weeks, but still reflects a year-on-year decline of 18% and 27% compared to 2023 and 2024, respectively[6] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached new historical highs, driven by the expansion of dollar liquidity and industrial activity related to AI investments[4] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the South China industrial product index showing resilience[5] - Recent fluctuations in commodity prices indicate a potential risk of volatility exceeding expectations[77] Group 4: Export and Economic Indicators - Export growth for the period leading up to December 28 is projected to be between 2% and 4%, with a model indicating a 4.2% year-on-year increase[68] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 119.3 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a tightening of liquidity[70]

格隆汇12月30日｜京基智农(000048.SZ)公告称，公司拟将其持有的深圳市京基智农酒店管理有限公司 100%股权转让给广东承希科汇投资控股有限公司，预计总金额6.5亿元。该交易预计将增加公司现金流 入，公司将及时处置酒店及龙岗智慧科园物业等大宗资产，并加快地产项目销售去化，推动回笼资金。 最终交易对价以公司聘请的资产评估机构出具的正式评估报告结果为核心依据。该交易不构成关联交 易，不构成重大资产重组，无需提交股东会审议。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is that individuals selling residential properties held for more than two years will be exempt from value-added tax (VAT), while those selling properties held for less than two years will be subject to a full VAT rate of 3% [1][3] - The policy applies specifically to individuals and does not include general taxpayers among individual businesses [3] - This new policy replaces a previous regulation effective from January 1, 2026, which will cease to be in effect [3] Group 2 - The announcement clarifies that individuals who sell properties purchased less than two years ago will need to pay VAT at a rate of 3% [3] - For properties held for two years or more, individuals will not incur any VAT upon sale [3] - The announcement also addresses transitional provisions for VAT that has not yet been declared or paid before January 1, 2026, allowing compliance with the new regulations [3]

今日A股市场呈现出显著的"科技强、周期稳"特征，整体走势分化。上证指数全天维持窄幅震荡，最终 以3965.12点报收，与前一交易日持平，走势平稳。相比之下，深市表现更为活跃，深证成指收盘上涨 0.49%，创业板指上涨0.63%。 其中，科创50指数表现最为突出，涨幅达到1.01%，且成交量同步放大，显示出资金对科技创新板块的 明确偏好。这一走势与港股市场形成共振，恒生科技指数亦大幅上涨1.92%。 从行业板块观察，市场热点集中在两条主线。一方面，石油石化板块表现强势，以2.63%的涨幅领涨市 场，汽车、有色金属、机械设备等周期与制造板块紧随其后，涨幅均超过1.3%，共同构成推动市场的 主要动力。另一方面，以科创50为代表的科技成长股获得资金集中关注。 它要求投资者在众人因恐惧而抛售时，冷静地问："这家公司的核心'护城河'是否仍然坚固？"在市场因 贪婪而疯狂时，清醒地问："当前的价格是否已经透支了未来十年甚至更久的乐观预期？" 此外，严格遵守"安全边际"原则是这一框架的实践关键。它坦率地承认任何人对未来的预测都必然存在 误差，因此通过只在价格显著低于保守估算的内在价值时买入，来为未知的风险和自身可能犯的判断错 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡回落 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.10%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应回升，而需求季节性走弱，基本面表现相对偏弱，淡季钢价 继续承压，相对利好的是成本支撑，预计钢价延续震荡运行态势，关注 钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.33%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷需求表现良好，带来供需格局好转，给予价格支撑，但需求韧 性存疑，且库存水平偏高，上行驱动预计不强，后续走势延续震荡运行 为主，关注钢厂生产情况。 铁矿石：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0.44%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，得益于现货结构性矛盾和节前补库预期，铁矿石高位偏强运行，但 矿石需求走 ...

中资金融股方面，中国银行涨1.13%，收报4.49港元；建设银行涨1.31%，收报7.72港元；工商银行涨 0.64%，收报6.27港元；中国平安跌0.68%，收报65.95港元；中国人寿跌0.64%，收报27.94港元。 石油石化股方面，中国石油化工股份涨1.96%，收报4.68港元；中国石油股份涨2.42%，收报8.46港元； 中国海洋石油涨3.97%，收报21.46港元。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵阳】 蓝筹股方面，腾讯控股涨0.59%，收报600港元；香港交易所涨0.1%，收报408.6港元；中国移动涨 0.37%，收报82.1港元；汇丰控股涨0.9%，收报123港元。 香港本地股方面，长实集团涨0.2%，收报39.62港元；新鸿基地产涨0.26%，收报95.15港元；恒基地产 跌0.35%，收报28.36港元。 新华社香港12月30日电 香港恒生指数30日涨219.37点，涨幅0.86%，收报25854.6点。全日主板成交 1997.69亿港元。 国企指数涨99.31点，收报8991.02点，涨幅1.12%。恒生科技指数涨95.37点，收报5578.38点，涨幅 1.74%。 ...