Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to continue its weak oscillation pattern in the short term due to the continuous escalation of the Middle East conflict, which impacts the equity market, squeezes the profit margins of domestic mid - and downstream high - end manufacturing, and restricts the overseas central banks' rate - cut space. In the long run, with the overall economic tone in line with expectations, multiple policies promoting economic growth, ample macro - liquidity, and capital market policies supporting a "slow - bull" market, the stock index is expected to have an upward space and may resume its upward trend as the external geopolitical situation eases and market risk appetite recovers [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money and Bond Market - **Market Data**: DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a 0.03bp increase, DR007 at 1.42 with a 0.62bp decrease, GC001 at 1.10 with a 20.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.46 with a 2.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.52 with a 0.60bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.26 with a 0.21bp increase, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.56 with a 0.77bp increase, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.83 with a 1.67bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.39 with a 14.00bp increase [4] - **Market Review**: Last week, the central bank conducted 242.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. With 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, there was a net injection of 65.8 billion yuan. Also, 600 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase expired, and the central bank carried out 500 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase operations and 250 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders [4] - **Market Outlook**: This week, 242.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with 137.3 billion, 51 billion, 20.5 billion, 13 billion, and 20.5 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 450 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Wednesday [5] Stock Index Futures Market - **Market Data**: The closing prices of major stock indices and their changes are as follows: the CSI 300 closed at 4567 with a 0.35% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2884 with a 1.11% decrease, the CSI 500 at 7760 with a 1.49% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 7783 with a 1.59% decrease. The closing prices of corresponding stock index futures and their changes are: IF当月 at 4597 with a 0.2% increase, IH当月 at 2898 with a 0.7% decrease, IC当月 at 7844 with a 0.5% decrease, and IM当月 at 7876 with a 0.6% decrease. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [7] - **Market Review**: Last week, the CSI 300 fell 2.19% to 4567, the SSE 50 fell 2.47% to 2883.9, the CSI 500 fell 5.82% to 7760, and the CSI 1000 fell 5.25% to 7783.4. Most industries in the Zhongwan primary industry index declined, with only communication (2.1%) and banking (0.4%) rising, while non - ferrous metals (-11.8%), basic chemicals (-10.5%), steel (-10.3%), comprehensive (-8%), and building materials (-7.9%) led the decline. The market sentiment cooled significantly, and A - share trading volume shrank substantially, with the daily trading volume last week being 2339.9 billion yuan, 2224.6 billion yuan, 2061 billion yuan, 2127.3 billion yuan, and 2302.8 billion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume decreasing by 244.62 billion yuan compared with the previous week [7] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are provided, with specific values for the next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the Middle - East situation and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have led to a decline in gold and silver prices. Gold and silver prices have given back their previous gains, and the downward pressure on gold prices has increased. Although there is some support from the photovoltaic sector for silver prices, the decline in gold prices will cause silver prices to widen their decline [4][5]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have made gold prices give back several years' worth of gains. However, with the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still macro - level support [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The Middle - East situation escalated, the expectation of interest rate hikes increased, and gold prices continued to fall. US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index increased, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 2.47% to $4492.00 per ounce. The basis was - 0.72, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 106,845 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The Middle - East situation escalated, the expectation of interest rate hikes increased, and silver prices gave back all of the previous day's gains. US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index increased, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 4.78% to $67.81 per ounce. The basis was + 35, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,370 kilograms to 362,495 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net short position changed to a long position [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: Consider the Middle - East situation, the euro - zone confidence index, and US construction spending in January. The expectation of interest rate hikes has increased, inflation concerns are high, and panic has spread. Gold prices have broken through the February low, and the downward pressure has increased. The premium of Shanghai gold has been maintained at 5.5 yuan per gram [4]. - **Silver**: The expectation of interest rate hikes has increased, and silver prices have given back their previous gains. The premium of Shanghai silver has significantly converged to around 1,750 yuan per kilogram. Although the photovoltaic sector has supported silver prices, the decline in gold prices will cause silver prices to widen their decline [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - The domestic refined oil product will open a new round of price adjustment window (time to be determined). - At 22:00, US construction spending in January will be released. - At 23:00, the preliminary value of the euro - zone consumer confidence index for March and a speech by European Central Bank Executive Board member Cipollone will be available. - At 00:00 the next day, a speech by European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane will be given [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have made gold prices give back several years' worth of gains. However, with the upcoming mid - term elections, there is still macro - level support [9]. - **Silver**: The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and the rising expectation of interest rate hikes have made gold prices give back several years' worth of gains. The photovoltaic and technology sectors support silver prices, and the low spot inventory and hot supply - shortage game also have an impact [13][15]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2.87% to 159,328, the short positions decreased by 0.82% to 43,816, and the net long positions decreased by 3.63% to 115,512 [39]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 2.84% to 250,241, the short positions decreased by 3.03% to 238,173, and the net long positions increased by 1.22% to 12,068 [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market trends, important macro - economic and industry - related information, and upcoming economic data and events, covering multiple sectors such as metals, energy, agriculture, and finance [4][7][14] Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally declined. COMEX gold futures fell 2.47% to $4492.00 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 11.26%, and COMEX silver futures fell 4.78% to $67.81 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 16.64% [4] - Most London base metals fell. LME lead rose 0.08% to $1889.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 0.97%; LME zinc fell 0.50% to $3056.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.28%; LME nickel fell 0.58% to $16885.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 2.21%; LME tin fell 1.61% to $42840.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 8.97%; LME aluminum fell 1.85% to $3192.0 per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.20%; LME copper fell 2.57% to $11834.5 per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.40% [4] - U.S. crude oil futures rose 2.66% to $98.09 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.12%; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.61% to $104.41 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 5.25% [4] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The U.S. National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported that La Nina is still ongoing and is expected to transition to ENSO neutral next month, likely remaining neutral from May to July 2026 [7] - Yemen's Houthi rebels may block the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait to support Iran [7] - As of March 20, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (composite index) was 1706.95 points, down 3.40 points from the previous period. The China Containerized Freight Index was 1120.61 points, up 4.5% from the previous period [7] - Trump's administration is considering actions to occupy or block Iran's Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [7] - Traders expect a 50% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of October and a possible rate hike in December, contrasting with earlier expectations of a rate cut [8] - The U.S. Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, while Trump insists not to send U.S. troops into Iran [8] - Fed Governor Bowman expects the economy to grow strongly this year and still anticipates three rate cuts [10] - Fed Governor Waller originally planned to vote for a rate cut but will take a more cautious approach due to oil supply tensions and inflation threats [10] - Israel and the U.S. will "significantly increase" military strikes against Iran in the next week [11] - Trump threatened to attack and destroy all of Iran's power plants if Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours [12] - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the U.S. - China Business Council delegation, hoping to promote Sino - U.S. economic and trade relations [12] - Iran is promoting the "monetization of control over the Strait of Hormuz," with each tanker potentially paying about $2 million to pass through [12] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would take four measures if Trump's threat to attack Iranian power plants is carried out [12] Energy and Chemical Futures - Sichuan Wujun Optoelectronics Co., Ltd.'s second - line with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day went into operation last Friday [14] - China's crude oil imports in February 2026 were 48045363.29 tons, a 1.72% month - on - month decrease and a 12.62% year - on - year increase [15] - From the night session on March 20, 2026, the maximum daily opening positions for non - futures company members or clients in methanol futures 2605 contract are 16000 lots, and in caustic soda futures 2605 contract are 8000 lots [15] - The International Energy Agency's chief said it may take up to six months to restore oil and gas supplies from the Gulf, and the world is facing a severe energy crisis [15] - An Indian LPG tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz after diplomatic efforts [15] - Six fuel transport ships originally scheduled to arrive in Australia next month have had their voyages cancelled or postponed due to the Middle East conflict [16] Metal Futures - Last week, copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 22337 tons, aluminum inventory increased by 35619 tons, zinc inventory increased by 4918 tons, lead inventory decreased by 9939 tons, nickel inventory decreased by 20 tons, and tin inventory decreased by 2472 tons [18] - As of March 19, the inventory of 32 sample lithium ore traders' spot ports and warehouses was 200,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase from last week, while the salable inventory was 105,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton decrease from last week [20] - Starting from the trading on April 22, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the night of April 21), the Shanghai Futures Exchange will expand the scope of tradable products for qualified foreign institutional investors, including nickel futures and options contracts [20] - From March 24, 2026, the minimum opening and closing order quantities of platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted, and the price limit and margin standards will also be adjusted [21] - Global primary aluminum production in February 2026 was 5.685 million tons, compared with 5.633 million tons in the same period last year and 6.317 million tons in the previous month. China's primary aluminum production in February is estimated to be 3.421 million tons, compared with 3.786 million tons in the previous month [21] Black - Series Futures - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, a 1.44 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 2.18 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, a 2.61 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 3.17 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2815 million tons, a 69,500 - ton increase from last week and an 81,100 - ton decrease from the same period last year [23] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 170.984 million tons, a decrease of 891,200 tons from the previous week; the total inventory at 47 ports was 178.1418 million tons, a decrease of 1.3314 million tons from the previous week [23] - The total urban inventory this week was 12.0088 million tons, a 105,400 - ton (- 0.87%) decrease from last week. The inventory of construction steel was 6.4461 million tons, a 2300 - ton (+ 0.04%) increase from last week [24] Agricultural Futures - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 were 1,166,586 tons, a 49.6% increase from the same period last month [26] - As of the week of March 20, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 297.68 yuan per head, compared with a loss of 283.15 yuan per head on March 13. The profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 141.48 yuan per head, compared with a loss of 118.18 yuan per head on March 13 [26] - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.06% increase from the same period last month [27] - In the 12th week of 2026 (March 14 - 20), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, a 21,100 - ton increase from the previous week and 61,000 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual operating rate was 54.81% [27] - Li Qiang emphasized high - level guarantee of stable and safe supply of important agricultural products [28] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized a symposium for pig - farming enterprises, requiring them to adjust production and control inventory to promote market stability [28] Financial Market Finance - Similar to agricultural futures, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 increased, and pig - farming profits were in the red [30][31] - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased slightly, and the operating rate was 54.81% [31] - Li Qiang emphasized high - level guarantee of stable and safe supply of important agricultural products [32] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized a symposium for pig - farming enterprises to promote market stability [32] Industry - By March 15, the weekly call volume of Chinese AI large models reached 46.9 trillion Tokens, surpassing the U.S. for the second consecutive week. JPMorgan predicts a 370 - fold increase in China's AI inference Token consumption from 2025 to 2030 [34] - On March 23 at 24:00, domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise for the fifth consecutive time, with an estimated increase of about 2000 yuan per ton [34] - Chinese automakers' global cumulative sales in 2025 exceeded Japan's for the first time [34] - A rare - earth mine in Sichuan increased its reserves by over 200% [35] - Several cities in Jiangsu issued automobile purchase subsidies [35] - China's first fully domestic solution - based polyolefin elastomer industrial device entered trial operation [37] - Many wealth - management companies adjusted their performance benchmarks [37] Overseas - The Trump administration is in preliminary consultations for a "peace talk" with Iran, with specific demands [38] - Iran allows non - enemy ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination [38] - Iran put forward six conditions for a cease - fire [38] - South Korea's President Li Zaiming will exclude multi - property owners from real - estate policies [39] - India is facing an LPG shortage, and the government will increase the commercial LPG sales quota [41] Commodity - Some banks have raised the handling fees for gold accumulation business [42] - The G7 called on Iran to stop attacks and is ready to support global energy supply [42] Foreign Exchange - China's central bank governor said China has no need to depreciate the exchange rate for trade advantages and will maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [43] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Singapore's February CPI, Canada's national economic confidence index, U.S. economic data, etc. [45] - Events include China's central bank's reverse - repurchase maturity, Huawei's product launch, European Central Bank speeches, etc. [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report is bullish on cotton in the short - term, suggesting a bullish and volatile trading strategy near the support level. The reasons include positive fundamentals such as expected reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026, good textile exports from January to February, the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations. However, there are also bearish factors like the decline in overall foreign trade orders, inventory increase, and the arrival of new cotton on the market [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ICAC predicts that global cotton consumption in 26/27 will be 25 million tons and production will be 24.8 million tons. In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to decrease by more than 10%. USDA's March report shows that in the 25/26 season, production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. From January to February, textile and clothing exports were $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China's cotton imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%; cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 season shows production of 6.64 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,649, and the basis is 1434 (for the 05 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory for the 25/26 season in March to be 8.29 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position is increasing, but the main trend is not clear [4]. - **Expectation**: Textile exports from January to February were good. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. Zhengzhou cotton had a callback in the intraday session and found support near 15,000. In the short - term, a bullish and volatile trading strategy is recommended near the support level [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 26.343 million tons, consumption is 25.817 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.631 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory among different countries [10][11]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, production is expected to be 24.8 million tons, a 4% decrease; consumption is 25 million tons, a 0.7% decrease; ending inventory is 16.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease; the trade volume is 9.6 million tons, a 1% decrease; the yield per unit area is 822 kg/ha, a 1.6% decrease; and the planting area is 30.2 million hectares, a 0.7% decrease [12]. - **China's Cotton Data**: In the 25/26 season, production is 6.64 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the war between the US, Israel, and Iran continues to intensify, providing strong support for oil prices. In the medium to long term, the increasing passive production cuts in the Middle East and the poor navigation situation provide upward support for prices. It is recommended to operate in the range of 790 - 810 for SC2605 and take a long - term wait - and - see approach [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran continue to escalate. Iraq's southern port has stopped oil exports, and the daily output of Basra Oil Company has dropped from 3.3 million barrels to 900,000 barrels [3]. - **Basis**: On March 20, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $158.9 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $104.27 per barrel. The basis was 24.37 yuan per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 944,000 barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory as of March 20 was 3.511 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of March 17, the main position of WTI crude oil is long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil is long, with an increase in long positions [3]. - **Expectation**: The Trump administration has started preliminary consultations on the next - stage arrangements and possible peace negotiations with Iran. However, the war intensity remains high, providing short - term support for prices. The increasing passive production cuts in the Middle East and the poor navigation situation provide medium - to - long - term upward support. It is recommended to operate in the range of 790 - 810 for SC2605 and take a long - term wait - and - see approach [3]. 2. Recent News - **Diplomatic Negotiations**: Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are involved in potential diplomatic negotiations. Any agreement to end the war must include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, resolving Iran's high - enriched uranium reserve issue, and reaching long - term agreements on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and support for regional proxy forces. Egypt, Qatar, and the UK are transmitting information between the two countries. Iran has set six strategic conditions to stop the war, and a cease - fire is not expected soon [5]. - **Oil Release**: The Trump administration has lent 45.2 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve to oil companies and issued a 30 - day sanctions waiver for purchasing Iranian oil at sea to ease the energy supply pressure [5]. - **Fed's Stance**: Fed Governor Waller believes that the risk of persistent inflation has increased, supporting keeping interest rates unchanged. Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman believes it is too early to judge the long - term impact on the US economy. Short - term interest rate contract traders are starting to price in a December interest rate hike [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Difficulties in strait passage and the deterioration of the Middle East situation [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Sanctioned oil returning to the market, Trump's intention to end the war quickly, and the release of strategic reserves by IEA member countries [6]. - **Market Driver**: In the short term, continue to focus on geopolitical situation changes; in the medium to long term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for a reversal [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $103.78 to $106.41, an increase of 2.53%; WTI crude oil increased from $95.55 to $98.23, an increase of 2.80%; SC crude oil decreased from 803.4 to 776.4, a decrease of 3.36%; Oman crude oil decreased from $166.96 to $157.94, a decrease of 5.40% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased by 0.35%, WTI increased by 2.17%, Oman crude oil decreased by 4.82%, Shengli crude oil decreased by 2.52%, and Dubai crude oil decreased by 4.82% [9]. - **API Inventory**: As of March 13, the API inventory increased by 6.556 million barrels to 472.774 million barrels [11]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of March 13, the EIA inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449.259 million barrels [13]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of March 17, the net long position was 218,688, a decrease of 9,327 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of March 17, the net long position was 428,704, an increase of 77,672 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For various financial options including上证50ETF,上证300ETF,创业板ETF,中证1000股指期权, etc., the report suggests no directional strategies but recommends constructing a combination strategy of selling call and put options to obtain option time - value returns and dynamically adjust positions [8][18][28][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Overview - **Important Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3957.05, down 49.50 (-1.24%), with a trading volume of 964.863 billion yuan, an increase of 29.598 billion yuan; the Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2883.86, down 32.37 (-1.11%), with a trading volume of 135.731 billion yuan, a decrease of 689 million yuan; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4567.02, down 16.23 (-0.35%), with a trading volume of 615.463 billion yuan, an increase of 67.613 billion yuan; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7783.43, down 125.80 (-1.59%), with a trading volume of 486.114 billion yuan, an increase of 42.307 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7760.04, down 117.05 (-1.49%), with a trading volume of 417.114 billion yuan, an increase of 22.259 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13866.20, down 35.37 (-0.25%), with a trading volume of 710.872 billion yuan, an increase of 109.722 billion yuan [3] - **ETF Market**: Different ETFs showed different trends. For example, the Shenzhen 100ETF closed at 3.504, up 0.022 (0.63%), with a trading volume of 5.698 million shares, an increase of 142,000 shares, and a trading value of 202 million yuan, an increase of 7 million yuan; the ChiNext ETF closed at 3.341, up 0.038 (1.15%), with a trading volume of 19.5967 million shares, an increase of 7.1274 million shares, and a trading value of 6.614 billion yuan, an increase of 2.474 billion yuan [4] 3.2 Shanghai 50ETF (510050.SH) - **Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR**: The trading volume of call options was 686,311, an increase of 80,372; the trading volume of put options was 462,644, an increase of 146,920; the position of call options was 954,117, an increase of 43,386; the position of put options was 618,886, an increase of 3,748. The trading volume PCR was 0.67, a decrease of 0.33; the position PCR was 0.65, a decrease of 0.03 [5] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The option's pressure level was 3.1, and the support level was 3 [8] - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a combination strategy of selling call and put options, such as S_510050_2604P2950 and S_510050_2604C3200. The previous day's closing price was 2.96 yuan, down 0.04 yuan (-120.28%), with a trading volume of 90,705, an increase of 14,058. The implied volatility of options remained above the average of 0.1755, and the position PCR of options was 0.6486, at the 1.63% level in the past year [8] 3.3 Shanghai 300ETF (510300.SH) - **Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR**: The trading volume of call options was 840,580, an increase of 143,122; the trading volume of put options was 685,988, a decrease of 3,226; the position of call options was 885,570, an increase of 11,570; the position of put options was 643,968, an increase of 14,683. The trading volume PCR was 0.82, a decrease of 0.17; the position PCR was 0.73, an increase of 0.01 [15] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The option's pressure level was 4.7, and the support level was 4.6 [18] - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a combination strategy of selling call and put options, such as S_510300_2604P4500 and S_510300_2604C4800. The previous day's closing price was 4.58 yuan, down 0.02 yuan (-50.01%), with a trading volume of 76,127, a decrease of 1,096. The implied volatility of options remained above the average of 0.1820, and the position PCR of options was 0.7272, at the 4.08% level in the past year [18] 3.4 ChiNext ETF (159915.SZ) - **Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR**: The trading volume of call options was 1,304,020, an increase of 445,438; the trading volume of put options was 1,585,560, an increase of 496,911; the position of call options was 694,078, a decrease of 56,873; the position of put options was 1,001,690, an increase of 102,495. The trading volume PCR was 1.22, a decrease of 0.05; the position PCR was 1.44, an increase of 0.25 [25] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The option's pressure level was 3.4, and the support level was 3.3 [28] - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a combination strategy of selling call and put options, such as S_159915_2604P3300 and S_159915_2604C3500. The previous day's closing price was 3.34 yuan, up 0.04 yuan (115.05%), with a trading volume of 195,967, an increase of 71,273. The implied volatility of options remained above the average of 0.3120, and the position PCR of options was 1.4432, at the 93.47% level in the past year [28] 3.5 CSI 1000 Stock Index Options - **Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR**: The trading volume of call options was 253,661, an increase of 22,282; the trading volume of put options was 213,594, a decrease of 23,455; the position of call options was 133,145, a decrease of 61,985; the position of put options was 114,302, a decrease of 56,363. The trading volume PCR was 0.84, a decrease of 0.18; the position PCR was 0.86, a decrease of 0.02 [35] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The option's pressure level was 8300, and the support level was 7900 [37] - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a combination strategy of selling call and put options, such as S_MO2604P7700 and S_MO2604C8400. The previous day's closing price was 7783.43 yuan, down 125.8 yuan (-159.05%), with a trading volume of 486,114,330,316, an increase of 42,307,166,870. The implied volatility of options remained above the average of 0.2377, and the position PCR of options was 0.8585, at the 21.22% level in the past year [37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite an increase in imports at the Singapore port, the commercial inventory of heavy fuel oil in Singapore has dropped to a two - week low. Due to reduced arbitrage economics and the tense Middle East situation, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore is expected to further decline in March and April [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a positive factor. The market structure of Asian high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened after reaching a milestone high since the Middle East war, but supply shortages will support spot premiums and refining profits in the short term. The deteriorating Middle East situation over the weekend will support oil prices, and fuel oil is strongly supported. FU2605 is expected to run strongly in the range of 4800 - 5100, and LU2605 in the range of 5700 - 5900 [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The price of the FU main contract futures decreased from 4969 to 4774, a decrease of 195 or 3.92%. The price of the LU main contract futures decreased from 6097 to 5777, a decrease of 320 or 5.25%. The FU basis decreased from 451 to 414, a decrease of 37.17 or 8.24%. The LU basis decreased from 1108 to 902, a decrease of 206 or 19% [5]. - The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel decreased from 1053.00 to 979.00, a decrease of 74.00 or 7.03%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel decreased from 1050.00 to 990.00, a decrease of 60.00 or 5.71%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel decreased from 781.66 to 736.63, a decrease of 45.03 or 5.76%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel decreased from 1045.50 to 928.29, a decrease of 117.21 or 11.21%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel decreased from 708.42 to 663.53, a decrease of 44.89 or 6.34%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 1442.03 to 1627.77, an increase of 185.75 or 12.88% [6]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The tense Middle East situation and poor channel traffic [4]. - Bearish factors: The Trump administration's TACO situation and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: The commercial inventory of heavy fuel oil in Singapore has decreased, and the inventory is expected to further decline in March and April. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward. The high - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; the low - sulfur main position is long, with long positions decreasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - A chart of the high - and low - sulfur futures spread (FU - LU) is provided, with values ranging from - 3000 to 0 [9]. 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on March 18, 2026, was 2486.9 million barrels, an increase of 37 million barrels [3][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures products, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic policies, and supply - demand relationships. The overall market shows complex and volatile characteristics, and different products have different trends and investment strategies [21][24][54]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market sentiment turns to risk - aversion. Although the Shanghai Composite Index is technically oversold, the uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's interest - rate policy still affect the market. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The discount is expected to converge and the position is expected to increase next week. The trading strategies include grid operation for unilateral trading, IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The domestic macro - economic indicators in January - February improved marginally, but the domestic demand growth rate is still low. The market liquidity is expected to remain loose, but there is a possibility of returning to a tight - balance state. The bond yield curve has become steeper. The trading strategies include waiting and seeing for unilateral trading and lightly shorting the 30Y - 7Y term spread for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors, showing a wide - range volatile trend. It is recommended to lightly lay out long positions, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production in India and Thailand is expected to be lower than expected, and the international sugar price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Domestically, although the supply is under pressure, the domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international price slightly. The trading strategies include going long at low prices and selling put options [30][32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the oils are in a high - level volatile state. The inventory is at a neutral to high level. The trading strategies include high - level volatility for unilateral trading, reverse arbitrage for p59 and y59, and waiting and seeing for options [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The external market is volatile, and the domestic market is affected by factors such as increased millet auctions. The trading strategies include a callback - long idea for the external 05 corn, a high - level volatile idea for the 05 corn, and narrowing the spread between 05 corn and starch for arbitrage [37][39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, but the overall price is still under pressure due to large inventory. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and use a short straddle strategy for options [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is in a strong - volatile state. The trading strategies include short - term long at low prices for the 05 peanut, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling pk605 - P - 7700 options [42][44]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens has decreased, and the egg price is mainly stable. It is recommended to short the June contract for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [45][46]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is fast, and the price is firm. It is recommended to leave the 5 - month contract and wait and see, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The increase in import quotas has a relatively small impact on domestic supply, and the price is expected to follow the US cotton and rise. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [51][52]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by overseas coal demand and raw material prices, the steel price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The trading strategies include a volatile and slightly stronger trend for unilateral trading, shorting the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [54][55]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price increase is a result of capital speculation under the background of rising overseas energy prices. The supply is relatively stable, and the core driver lies in the development of geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, not to chase high or short at the top, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][58]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed, and the price is at a high level. It is recommended to hedge at a high level for spot, conduct a high - level reverse spread for the 5/9 month spread, and wait and see for options [59][60]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferrosilicon, the supply and demand are in a positive feedback, and the cost is supported. For ferromanganese, the supply and demand are marginally improved, and the cost is affected by the hurricane. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of the hurricane on the shipment of manganese ore, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [61][62]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, concerns about interest - rate hikes, and liquidity, the prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors can participate in short - term trading with a bearish idea [67][68]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Affected by macro - pressure, they are in a weak state. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, wait for the low - price spread to go long for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. - **Copper**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price is in a low - level volatile state. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [72][75]. - **Alumina**: It is necessary to pay attention to the mining policy in Guinea. If the policy cannot reverse the oversupply situation of bauxite, the impact on alumina is mainly from the cost side. There is a basis for arbitrage [76][78]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the concern about economic slowdown has increased, and the price has weakened. It is recommended to follow the sector and wait and see for arbitrage and options [80][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by macro - expectations, it is under pressure. It is recommended to follow the aluminum price and wait and see for arbitrage and options [83][84]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have certain support, but the macro situation is uncertain. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile state. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic consumption and overseas smelter operations for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [85][88]. - **Lead**: It is in a low - level volatile state. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of domestic social inventory for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [89][92]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation, and the cost is strongly supported. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [93][94]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to follow the nickel price, and the short - term macro impact is large. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to stabilize for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage [95][96]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in an interval - volatile state. It is recommended to buy at the lower end of the interval and set stop - loss and take - profit in time [98][99]. - **Polysilicon**: It is short - term weak. It is recommended to pay attention to policy guidance, be cautious about liquidity risks for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [100][101]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The low price attracts downstream buyers. It is recommended to buy at the lower end of the interval for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [102][105]. - **Tin**: Affected by the macro situation, the price is in a weak - volatile state. It is recommended to be bearish in the short - term for unilateral trading and wait and see for options [107][109]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The geopolitical situation has escalated, and the freight rate has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage [110][113]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The situation in the Middle East may escalate, and the rent of large and small ships shows a differentiated trend. The high oil price has an impact on the shipping cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the war and the supply and demand of the shipping market [114][116]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is in a dull period, and the EU carbon market has temporarily got rid of the policy haze. The Chinese carbon market is expected to be supported in the short - term but lacks upward momentum. The EU carbon market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the medium - and long - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes and energy supply [117][123]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The war may further escalate, and the price is expected to be high. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [124][126]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is tight, the demand is weak, and the raw material concern persists. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [127][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the demand start rhythm; for low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is tight. It is recommended to go long on the near - month LU contract for unilateral trading, conduct long - spread arbitrage for LU, and wait and see for options [131][133]. - **LPG**: The demand is stable, and the price is rising. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [133][136]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk persists, and the price is in an upward trend. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options on TTF [136][140]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply is expected to shrink unexpectedly, and PTA enterprises may be forced to reduce production. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][142]. - **BZ & EB**: The raw material supply is in short supply, and the fundamentals are good. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [143][145]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The import volume is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand structure is expected to improve. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [146][147]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates in an interval. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [148][150]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously decreasing. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [151][153]. - **Propylene**: The supply is tight. It is recommended to be bullish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [153][156]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory accumulation rate of PP traders has slowed down. It is recommended to hold long positions for L and PP, conduct short - spread arbitrage for L2605&PP2605, and wait and see for options [157][159]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export inquiry is active, and the price is volatile. It is recommended to be volatile for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [160][163]. - **PVC**: It is mainly strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage and options [164][165]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a weak - volatile state. It is recommended to be bearish for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [166][169]. - **Glass**: It is in a weak - volatile state. It is recommended to be bearish for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [170][174]. - **Methanol**: It is rising strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [175][177]. - **Urea**: It is mainly volatile. It is recommended to go short at high prices for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [178][180]. - **Pulp**: The external price increase boosts the valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell SP2605 - P - 5100 options [181][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market is based on rigid - demand purchases. It is recommended to go short at high prices for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell OP2604 - C - 4200 options [184][188]. - **Logs**: The import cost is rising. It is recommended to go long at low prices for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options [188][192]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The all - steel tire inventory is decreasing, and the semi - steel tire inventory is increasing. It is recommended to try long positions for the RU 05 contract, wait and see for the NR 05 contract, conduct spread arbitrage for NR2605 - RU2605, and wait and see for options [193][195]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The all - steel tire inventory is decreasing, and the semi - steel tire inventory is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions for the BR 05 contract, conduct spread arbitrage for BR2505 - RU2505, and wait and see for options [196][199].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The steel and ore market is expected to fluctuate. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore are given, and specific trading strategies are proposed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coil closed down, while iron ore closed up. All closed up during the night session [1] Important Information - On March 21, Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully opened, and the Iranian speaker responded that if attacked, important facilities in the Middle East would be targeted and oil prices would rise long - term [1] - An Iranian official proposed six conditions for a truce on March 22, including ensuring no more war, closing US military bases in the Middle East, and receiving compensation [1] - The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.57%, up 6.13 percentage points month - on - month and 1.67 percentage points year - on - year [1] - The daily average output of fine powder from 186 mine enterprises was 47.52 tons, up 1.41 tons month - on - month and down 1.33 tons year - on - year. Mine fine powder inventory was 100.47 tons, up 11.19 tons month - on - month [1] - From March 9 - 15, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3048.8 tons, up 151.0 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2464.4 tons, up 122.3 tons month - on - month [1] - From March 9 - 15, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2317.0 tons, down 380.5 tons month - on - month; at 45 ports was 2215.0 tons, down 394.9 tons month - on - month; at six northern ports was 1230.2 tons, down 234.3 tons month - on - month [1] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, up 1.44 percentage points week - on - week and down 2.18 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, up 2.61 percentage points week - on - week and down 3.17 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 42.42%, up 1.29 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.83 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average pig iron output was 228.15 tons, up 6.95 tons week - on - week and down 8.11 tons year - on - year [1] - From March 16 - 20, the national average rebar price was 3329 yuan/ton, down 0.3% week - on - week. Rebar production was 203.33 tons, inventory was 889.41 tons, and consumption was 208.09 tons [1] - Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17814.18 tons, down 133.14 tons month - on - month [1] Market Logic - On the 20th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port rose by 3 yuan/wet ton [2] - On the 20th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3240 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan, unchanged [2] - On the 20th, the port coke spot market was stable. The trading volume at the two ports increased slightly, and the total inventory was stable compared to the previous day [2] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 839.82 tons, up 18.85 tons week - on - week (2.3%); the total inventory was 1946.23 tons, down 28.66 tons week - on - week (1.5%); the apparent consumption was 868.28 tons, up 8.8% week - on - week [2] - This week, the daily pig iron output was 228.18 tons, up 6.95 tons, and the profitability rate was 42.42%, up 1.29% from last week [2] Trading Strategies - It is expected that the steel and ore market will fluctuate. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are given [2] - For single - side trading, short - term operations are recommended [2] - For arbitrage, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Set the stop - loss level at a spread of 130 and the take - profit level at around 200 [2] - The rebar - iron ore ratio is 3.83. It is recommended to go long on the rebar - iron ore ratio (long rebar and short iron ore) with a target ratio of over 4, while also paying attention to the impact of contract roll - over [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, in the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; for short - term, the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - For treasury bond futures, in the short - term, the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium to long - term, with the upward risk preference and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL [2] Group 3: Summary of Stock Index Futures Market Performance - On March 20, most of the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.24% to close at 3957.05 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to close at 13866.2 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.3% to close at 3352.1 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.55% to close at 1318.31 points. The market turnover was 23,028 billion yuan, an increase of 1,756 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+1.55%), communication (+1.48%), and coal (+0.1%) performed well; comprehensive (-5.52%), computer (-3.83%), and national defense and military industry (-3%) performed averagely [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 661/43/4,784 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 118, - 281, - 27, and 426 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +225, +31, - 157, and - 99 billion yuan respectively [1] Basis and Basis Annualized Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 55.63, 63.44, 27.02, and 2.46 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 8.93%, - 10.22%, - 7.39%, and - 1.07% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 50%, 21%, 15%, and 39% respectively [1] Transaction Strategy - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1] Group 4: Summary of Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On March 20, treasury bond futures showed a weak trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.06%, T fell 0.09%, and TL fell 0.42% [1] Cash Bond - The current active contract is the 2606 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250024.IB, the yield changed by - 0.5bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.033, and the IRR is 1.28%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250014.IB, the yield changed by +0bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.024, and the IRR is 1.32%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250025.IB, the yield changed by +0.1bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.014, and the IRR is 1.36%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, the yield changed by +0.25bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.221, and the IRR is 0.68% [1] Capital Situation - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 205 billion yuan and withdrew 375 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan [1] Transaction Strategy - In the short - term, the trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium to long - term, with the upward risk preference and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL [2] Group 5: Summary of Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of various sectors has declined [8]