Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the market focus has shifted to the upcoming US CPI data. For various commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy impacts, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity [4][7][9]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Index - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations; the European Central Bank Executive Committee will expand the scope of application of the euro back - up financing mechanism; many car companies disclosed their solid - state battery technology paths and industrial plans; some companies made progress in 3D printing technology and PCB production [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Presented the basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods [3]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the intensifying divergence in US monetary policy expectations, the risk appetite of the capital market is suppressed, and the US stocks and precious metals are highly volatile. Domestically, the liquidity is tightened seasonally approaching the Spring Festival. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental scale of 50 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount. In 2025, commercial banks' net profit was 2.4 trillion yuan, and the average capital profit rate and average asset profit rate were 7.78% and 0.60% respectively. The central bank's net injection on Thursday was 44.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy View**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: On Thursday, precious metals tumbled. The decline was due to the decline of US technology stocks, investors' forced liquidation, and profit - taking. The US initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims data were released, and the US existing home sales in January decreased by 8.4% month - on - month [8]. - **Strategy View**: Although short - term monetary policy expectations suppress precious metals, they are still in a high - level volatile pattern. The market is waiting for the US CPI data. The strategy is to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 950 - 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Before the domestic long holiday, funds were cautious. Overnight silver and US stocks declined, and copper prices fell after rising. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased [12][13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the market sentiment is affected by the decline of precious metals, the strong manufacturing in Europe and the US provides support. The copper price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 99000 - 103000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton for LME copper [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Mozambique aluminum smelter is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Aluminum prices rose and then fell. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic demand is weak, but the low LME inventory and high US aluminum spot premium support the price. The aluminum price is expected to be in a volatile and upward trend during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 23200 - 23600 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3050 - 3140 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc index rose slightly. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory started to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation was average [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc mine inventory accumulation slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC stabilized. Although the domestic zinc industry is weak, the strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise, and there is still a risk of price fluctuations during the Spring Festival [17][18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead index fell slightly. The lead ingot social inventory increased, and the waste battery inventory was higher than that in 2025 [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead ore inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee is low. The lead price is near the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and whether it can stabilize depends on the post - holiday restocking willingness of downstream enterprises [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fluctuated. The spot premium of nickel was stable, and the nickel ore price was stable. The price of nickel iron rose slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, there is a short - term rebound demand, but the nickel price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern due to fundamental pressure. The approved nickel ore production quota has little impact on the price, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fluctuated. The smelter's production in Yunnan was stable, and that in Jiangxi was low due to the shortage of waste tin raw materials. The downstream demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price may rebound with the stabilization of precious metals, but it is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract and 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the futures price fell slightly. The inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is expected to be strong. The short - term supply - demand pattern is tight. The upstream has more bargaining power after the holiday. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount to the main contract [26]. - **Strategy View**: There is a strike in the Guinea bauxite mine area, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton for the main contract AO2605 [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton for the main contract [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded slightly, and the trading volume increased. The inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price is supported by supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material shortages [31]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The rebar inventory started to accumulate, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The carbon emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The steel market is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and policy changes [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased [36]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron water production is in a recovery trend. The ore price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic terminal demand after the festival [37]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were at a premium to the futures prices [38]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas coal - related disturbances have a positive impact on sentiment, but the short - term upward drive of coking coal is not strong. The downstream replenishment is coming to an end, and there is a risk of price correction after the festival. Coking coal may have a better performance from June to October [40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak [44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to be in a volatile and sorted pattern, with the reference range of 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton for the main contract [45]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak [46]. - **Strategy View**: The soda ash market is in a weak and stable volatile pattern, with the reference range of 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton for the main contract [46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot prices were at a premium to the futures prices [47]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][49]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures price fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [50]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in February. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [51]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures price fell. The supply decreased, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market is expected to be in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and spot prices [53]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated with the commodity market. The tire enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [56][57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival, trade short - term on the disk, and hold a hedging position during the festival [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil futures price rose slightly. The US crude oil commercial inventory increased, and the diesel and fuel oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [61]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot price changed slightly, and the futures price decreased [62]. - **Strategy View**: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [63]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot price was stable, and the futures price rose [64]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is negative. It is recommended to short - sell [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush, and attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol market needs to reduce production to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound due to geopolitical factors and coal price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA market is in the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to be stable at a high level, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips after the Spring Festival [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand from downstream PTA was weak. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [73][74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price fluctuated. The trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival [76]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term pig price is under pressure due to large supply and high inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies. The long - term price may be supported by seasonal factors and demand recovery [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable in most markets approaching the Spring Festival [78]. - **Strategy View**: The egg market is in the inventory - accumulation period. The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short - sell. The long - term price trend depends on capacity reduction [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price rose. The global soybean supply and demand were slightly adjusted in the USDA report [80]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term protein meal price is expected to be in a volatile pattern due to the increase in US soybean procurement expectations and the rise in import costs [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean oil price rose, the palm oil price fell, and the rapeseed oil price was stable. The global palm oil supply and demand data were released [82][83]. - **Strategy View**: The consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth this year. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data were released [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest is completed. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The domestic cotton price rose. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data were released in the USDA report [88][89]. - **Strategy View**: The USDA report is neutral. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower edge of the shock range after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy [90].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 13 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2026/2/13 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 合成橡胶 | 碳酸锂 | 十债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 橡胶 | 尿素 | 三十债 | | | | | 红枣 | 棉花 | 二债 | | | 0531-81678626 | | PVC | 棉纱 | 五债 | | | 客服电话： | | 塑料 | 多晶硅 | 烧碱 | | | | | 原油 | 白糖 | 硅铁 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 中证1000指数期货 | 工业硅 | 苹果 | | | 公司网址： | | | 胶版印刷纸 | | | | www.ztqh.com | | | 燃油 | | | | | | | 沥青 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Reducing trading positions for general traders before the holiday for copper, increasing hedging coverage; strengthening observation for aluminum; observing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily observing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][15] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][25] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Partially taking profits on short positions in hogs before the year, adopting a rolling short strategy on rebounds; reducing positions in eggs before the holiday, avoiding short - chasing; being cautious about chasing highs in corn, suggesting hedging on rebounds for grain - holding entities; observing the performance of the M2605 contract at 2700 for soybean meal, shorting on highs [1][27] - **Oils and Fats**: High - level oscillation, suggesting buying on dips, paying attention to position risks before the holiday [3][32] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market trends, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory, cost, and policy to analyze the price trends of different futures and gives corresponding trading strategies [1][5][9] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips. Before the holiday, they may trade in a range, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly and focus on defense [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. Although the overall price level shows a mild recovery, the bond market's reaction to price data is limited. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended as the coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [1][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is undervalued, but the demand has declined, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to trade lightly before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Buying on dips is recommended. Although there are supply and demand constraints, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there may be variables before the contract expires [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade in a range. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to macro - level panic. Although the supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. General traders are advised to reduce positions, while hedgers are advised to increase hedging coverage [9] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. The supply is increasing, but the demand is weakening. It is advisable to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [10] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. Although the nickel ore supply is strong, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [12] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand changes [13][14] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data. The medium - term price center is rising, and short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to trade in a range [14][15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [15] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a wide range at a low level. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [15][17] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to observe [17] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is in the off - season, and the demand is weak before the holiday. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream consumption [19][20] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [20] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [21] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on highs [22][24] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to observe. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space may be limited [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. Although the long - term outlook is optimistic, the short - term is under pressure from the internal - external price difference [25] - **Apples**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period, and the trading volume of different grades of fruits varies [25] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [27] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: They are expected to build a bottom in a range. Before the year, partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended, and a rolling short strategy on rebounds can be adopted. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the first half of the year, and the price may be under pressure [27] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the position should be reduced, and short - chasing should be avoided. It is advisable to hedge on rebounds for the 05 and 06 contracts [29] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [30][31] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range at a low level. The M2605 contract should pay attention to the support at 2700, and short positions can be established on highs [31] Oils and Fats - They are expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of the three major oils are mixed, with soybean oil expected to be relatively strong, and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday [32][37]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have declined, with silver experiencing a significant drop due to a decrease in market risk appetite and liquidity shocks impacting prices [1] Economic Data - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding the expected 70,000 [1] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, lower than the anticipated 4.4% [1] - Following the data release, expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, although the overall U.S. job market is trending towards a slowdown [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to require interest rate cuts for support, particularly after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office mid-year [1] Long-term Factors - Long-term supportive factors for gold, such as de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases, remain intact [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 15th consecutive month [1] Market Expectations - After sufficient market adjustments and accumulation of new positive factors, gold is anticipated to return to a steady upward trend [1] - Due to the higher volatility of silver compared to gold and the current low gold-silver ratio, investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1]

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（30）期 发布日期：2026-02-13 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620081 | 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,121.00 | 1,120.00 | 1.0 | 0.089 | | | 焦炭 | 1,665.00 | 1,664.00 | 1.0 | 0.060 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,485.00 | 16,450.00 | 35.0 | 0.213 | | | 20号胶 | 13,385.00 | 13,370.00 | 15.0 | 0.112 | | | 塑料 | 6,720.00 | 6,734.00 | -14.0 | -0.208 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,633.00 ...

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: February 13, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental situation is weak, with the January PMI falling more than seasonally. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the economic indicators are expected to decline further. However, structural interest rate cuts have been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's expectation of monetary easing is not strong. The planned issuance of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing concerns about supply pressure [11]. - The current yield level of 10 - year treasury bonds around 1.8% does not fully price in the potential easing space. There is support from allocation demand at the beginning of the year, and the central bank is actively maintaining the money market, so the upside space of interest rates is limited. In February, the bond market is in a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors and may continue to fluctuate within a range [11][12]. - Before the Spring Festival, the central bank will actively maintain the cross - festival money market, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, so the market environment is relatively warm. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will increase. Although the return of cash will supplement liquidity, the central bank usually withdraws funds, which may be unfavorable for short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important meetings and policies in March, and long - term bonds may be more advantageous. This week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival, trading is expected to be light, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions on the Day**: The money market improved slightly but remained in a tight balance. Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with a larger decline in long - term interest rates. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.774%, a decrease of 1.2bp [9]. - **Money Market**: The inter - bank money market improved marginally but remained in a tight balance. The net reverse repurchase injection in the open market was 448 billion yuan. The inter - bank money sentiment index was high in the morning and slightly declined in the afternoon. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.37%, the 7 - day funds rate fell about 1.3bp to around 1.53%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [10] 3.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China released the "Fourth - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" on February 10. The report proposed that the central bank will conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, support the good start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It also introduced three ways of coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy [13]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamachi Sanae said she is open to dialogue with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian responded that such "dialogue" is unacceptable [13]. - US President Trump said he is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The US and Iran restarted negotiations in Oman last Friday, and the second - round negotiation is expected to be held next week [14]. - Before the Spring Festival, the competition among banks for deposits has heated up again. Small and medium - sized banks mainly attract customers by raising the interest rates of specific deposit products, while large banks use methods such as giving points and reward vouchers. Multiple institutions and industry insiders believe that the matured time - deposit funds in 2026 are likely to circulate within the banking system and flow more to low - risk assets such as bank wealth management, money market funds, and insurance [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on February 12, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, change in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and change in the pledged repurchase rate of inter - bank deposits [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

经济观察网 瑞达期货（002961）近期密集推进资本运作，2026年1月20日公司公告计划以5.89亿元收购 申港证券11.94%股权，以补全证券业务牌照；2026年2月3日董事会审议通过以1.5亿元自有资金增资全 资子公司瑞达新控，增资后其注册资本增至9亿元，旨在强化风险管理主业和综合金融转型。同时，公 司管理层频繁变动，2025年11月副总经理田瑶转任总经理助理，另一位副总经理徐志谋转任子公司董事 长，引发市场对管理稳定性的关注。合规方面，2025年公司及分支机构累计收到至少4次监管警示函， 涉及内控、从业人员管理等问题，最近一次为2025年12月四川证监局对乐山营业部出具警示函。 截至2025年9月30日，瑞达期货资产总额204.40亿元，负债总额172.92亿元，股东权益31.48亿元；2025 年前三季度实现营业总收入16.21亿元，净利润3.88亿元，归母净利润3.86亿元，基本每股收益0.87元， 显示自有资金较为充裕。核心子公司瑞达新控同期资产总额23.96亿元，净资产10.77亿元，2025年1-9月 营业收入7.93亿元，净利润1.21亿元，为非经纪业务重要收入来源。 财报分析 以上内容基 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Construction Futures is actively engaging in community support initiatives, focusing on rural revitalization and providing assistance to underprivileged households during the New Year celebrations [1] Group 1: Community Support Activities - The company has organized a series of New Year慰问 activities across 21 regions, including Chongqing, Anhui, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia, benefiting over 1,000 underprivileged families [1] - A total donation of 150,000 yuan has been made, which includes essential goods such as rice, flour, milk, cooking oil, and sports equipment [1] Group 2: Additional Support Initiatives - In addition to material donations, CITIC Construction Futures is conducting various support activities such as party-building cooperation, financial knowledge training, consumer assistance, and educational support [1] - These initiatives aim to provide practical help and convey warmth and blessings for the New Year [1] Group 3: Commitment to Rural Revitalization - Since 2018, CITIC Construction Futures has been conducting New Year慰问 activities for nine consecutive years, demonstrating a commitment to ongoing community support [1] - The company emphasizes its responsibility as a financial state-owned enterprise and aims to continue its efforts in serving the agricultural sector and addressing support needs effectively [1]

Group 1: Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on rebar 2605 is bias towards a weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also bias towards a weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar both weakened. Short - process steel mills significantly reduced production, and rebar output decreased significantly, slightly lower than the same period last lunar year. However, inventory was relatively high, so the positive effect on the supply side was limited. The demand for rebar also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators declining and remaining at the lowest level in recent lunar years. Weak demand continued to drag down steel prices. The relative positives are the expected post - festival policy enhancement and cost support. The steel price is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term is "oscillation, weak", the medium - term is "oscillation", and the intraday is "oscillation, weak". The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar both weakened. Short - process steel mills cut production, output decreased, inventory was relatively high, and demand was weak. The steel price was under pressure, but there were positive factors such as policy expectations and cost support. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with most new energy materials rising. Shipping futures led the gains, while chemical products led the losses [1]. - The US economy shows a weak - stable total and a differentiated structure. The manufacturing PMI in January was favorable, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened, and employment data was below expectations [1]. - In China, the boost from the incremental policies in Q4 2025 to the fundamentals has not been significant, but policy expectations are gradually increasing. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, but the expectation of policy support in Q1 is strengthening [1]. - Domestic equity markets are supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities. Gold in precious metals maintains a long - position standard, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are still promising, and short - term dips can be used for bottom - fishing. Black commodities are volatile, and crude oil may rise but with high uncertainty [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) up 6.40%. New energy materials mostly rose, with lithium carbonate up 3.66%. Basic metals mostly rose, with Shanghai nickel up 1.79%. Agricultural and sideline products all rose, with apples up 1.73%. Energy products all rose, with fuel oil up 1.09%. Chemical products led the losses, with butadiene rubber down 1.93%. Oils and fats mostly fell, with palm oil down 1.50%. Precious metals were mixed, with palladium down 1.48%. Black series all fell, with ferrosilicon down 1.47%. Non - metallic building materials all fell, with PVC down 0.78% [1]. - **Financial Market**: On February 12, 2026, among stock index futures, CSI 500 futures rose 1.31%, and CSI 1000 futures rose 1.09%. Among Treasury bond futures, 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.06%, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 108 pips [9]. - **Industry Index**: On February 12, 2026, among the中信 industry indices, non - ferrous metals rose 0.98%, and machinery rose 1.29%, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery fell 1.48%, and consumer services fell 1.75% [10][11]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On February 11, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 1.45%, ICE Brent oil rose 1.21%, COMEX gold rose 1.53%, and LME nickel rose 3.29% [12][13]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On February 12, 2026, the container shipping European line rose 5.27%, lithium carbonate rose 12.33% weekly, and iron ore fell 0.11% daily [14][15][16]. 3.2 Sector Analysis - **Finance**: Before the holiday, it may be volatile. Stock index futures may be volatile and slightly stronger, stock index options should continue to hold call options for defense, Treasury bond futures are supported by monetary easing expectations, and gold and silver are in a stage of adjustment with reduced capital enthusiasm [5]. - **Shipping**: The OOCL's March online price is $3130/FEU, and the market is in a state of shrinking trading volume and consolidation before the holiday [5]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, contradictions are accumulating, and the market is under pressure. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all in a volatile state [5]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The expected trading of "Woshi Eagle" is weakening, and basic metals stop falling and are volatile. Nickel, stainless steel, and tin are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [5]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Concerns about the Middle East situation continue to disrupt oil prices, and the chemical industry continues to be in a state of volatile consolidation [6]. - **Agriculture**: Optimistic sentiment supports US soybeans, and domestic double - meal is mainly volatile. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, and the pig price is running at a low level [6].