Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber market in China is under pressure due to increased production capacity of butadiene and synthetic rubber, high finished product inventory among tire manufacturers, and low operating rates for both full steel and semi-steel tires [1][2]. Production Capacity - China's butadiene production capacity has reached 7.577 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 14.16% [2] - Five new butadiene production units have been added this year, contributing a net increase of 940,000 tons per year after accounting for capacity exits [2] - By 2025, China's synthetic rubber capacity is expected to exceed 8 million tons, accounting for 32% of the global total [2][3] Market Demand - In October, the production of rubber tires in China decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with total output at 97.951 million units [4] - The automotive industry shows strong performance, with production and sales of vehicles increasing by 11.2% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively, supporting demand for original equipment tires [4] - However, the export market has seen a slowdown, with tire exports growing by only 4% from January to October, down from 10.25% in 2024 [4] Inventory and Utilization Rates - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire manufacturers is 44.82 days, while for full steel tire manufacturers it is 39.01 days, indicating a need for inventory reduction [4] - The capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tires is 72.99%, showing a slight increase, while full steel tires have a utilization rate of 64.29%, reflecting a decrease [5] Price Trends - As of November 19, butadiene prices in Shandong are reported at 7,100 yuan per ton, with a significant drop in production profits for various production processes [6] - The price gap between butadiene and synthetic rubber remains large, with synthetic rubber prices reported at 10,450 yuan per ton, indicating a need for price correction [6][8] - Overall, the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue experiencing weak fluctuations due to increased domestic supply and ongoing demand pressures [8]

行，由于检修企业在本周涉及检修天数增多，预计产能利用率将进一步下滑。br2601合约短线预计在1045 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 0-10800区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10705 | 200 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 71378 | -643 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | -40 | -45 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2980 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 10550 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10550 | 50 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR90 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Jinshan Baling New Materials Company, a joint investment by Hunan Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical, has successfully completed its annual production capacity of 250,000 tons of SBC (Styrene Block Copolymer) and achieved a successful initial operation, marking a new breakthrough in Sinopec's supply capacity in the high-end new materials sector [1] Group 1: Company Achievements - Hunan Petrochemical has become the largest SBC elastomer manufacturer globally, with a total annual production capacity of 800,000 tons across its main plant and two joint ventures [1] - The main plant of Hunan Petrochemical has an annual SBC elastomer production capacity of 380,000 tons, while the Hainan Baling New Materials Company has a capacity of 170,000 tons, and the newly established Shanghai Jinshan Baling New Materials Company has a capacity of 250,000 tons [1][2] Group 2: Historical Context - Hunan Petrochemical was one of the first companies in China to industrialize SBC elastomer production, establishing the first 10,000-ton SBS industrial production unit in the 1980s [2] - The company has broken foreign technology monopolies by building the first 10,000-ton SEBS industrial production unit in 2006 and the first 20,000-ton SEPS industrial production unit in 2017 [2] Group 3: Recent Developments - In 2023, the Hainan Baling Chemical New Materials Company launched its SBC elastomer unit, with SBS production capacity of 120,000 tons and SEBS capacity of 50,000 tons [3] - The newly established Shanghai Jinshan Baling New Materials Company produces three types of SBC elastomers, with SBS capacity of 140,000 tons, SEBS capacity of 50,000 tons, and SIS (Styrene-Isoprene-Styrene) capacity of 60,000 tons [3] Group 4: Production and Market Performance - From January to October 2023, Hunan Petrochemical's rubber division produced nearly 270,000 tons of SBC elastomer series products, achieving a 19% year-on-year increase in sales of new specialty products [3] - The Hainan Baling New Materials Company has produced over 300,000 tons since its establishment, with an average operating rate of 110%, significantly higher than the industry average [3] Group 5: Product Characteristics and Applications - SBC elastomers are new polymer materials that combine the processing convenience of plastics with the high elasticity of rubber, featuring green safety, easy processing, and recyclability [3] - Applications of SBC elastomers include high-value sectors such as infant products, medical devices, 5G optical cable reinforcement, and environmentally friendly synthetic leather, with some medical-grade products suitable for human implantation [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 顺丁装置开工修复，主流供价逐步抬升 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：顺丁装置开工修复，主流供价逐步抬升 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 ⚫ 截止2025年11月13日，中石化化销BR9000出厂价格在10300元/吨，中石油主要销售公司BR9000出厂价格在10300-10400元/吨。 ⚫ 本周期原料丁二烯端止跌反弹，成本面支撑逐步走强提振顺丁市场交投重心上移；供应面上，扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置重启、四川石化重启后负荷逐步提升，国内顺丁橡胶产量及产能利用率恢 复性提升。现货市场多数两油品牌资源短时难有低价货源补充，且本月结算均价较高预期影响下两油开单户多大幅挺价观望，但溢价过大导致难有成交跟进，而民营资源价格仍显著低于两油 资源价格，但商谈重心逐步提升至万元附 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different sectors having different trends and influencing factors. For example, the A - share market is affected by macro - data and shows an upward - then - downward trend; the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term; and the energy market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [10][12][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The 22nd issue of Qiushi magazine published President Xi Jinping's important article. The National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, showing a slowdown in multiple indicators. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined. The Chinese government reminded citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The State Council studied "two - important" construction and consumption - promotion policies. The central bank will conduct a large - scale reverse - repurchase operation. The US will release multiple economic data. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures. The market supervision department issued an anti - monopoly compliance guide. The national child - rearing subsidy system has been implemented, and the lithium - battery industry chain has seen a price increase. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [4][5][6][7][8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market rose and then fell, affected by macro - data. The decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and the real - estate downturn [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest - rate cuts cannot be ruled out. Maintain the view of increased easing in Q4. The money market is affected by the approaching tax period, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakly effective [11]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short - term, expect a volatile consolidation; in the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bearish view when prices are high. The supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory and low profit for steel mills. The price is affected by low - price transactions and may remain weak [12][13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the mine's production is restricted by policies, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the strong thermal - coal price provides some support [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, so maintain a bearish view when prices are high. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the cost of manganese - silicon is relatively stable [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. The soda - ash industry has production fluctuations and cost increases, while the glass industry's strong sales have not continued, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year, limiting price increases. After the demand weakens, the price may correct, and it is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, influenced by policy expectations and supply - demand relationships [19]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The price is undervalued compared to the spot, which limits the decline. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [23][24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. Before the large - scale arrival of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure [25][27]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may oscillate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it is expected to decline. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [28]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. The inventory is low, and the price is high. The future consumption trend will be the focus [30]. - **Corn**: The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - grain sales progress and the release of policy wheat [31]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The weak spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the new - date ordering price [32]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, but the long - term downward trend of oversupply remains unchanged. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand forecasts [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure. The short - term focus is on supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [36]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. The current price provides some support for producers [36][37]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. The price may oscillate in the short - term, with supply in the peak season and support at the bottom [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - term contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - term contracts can be moderately long after the rebound drive appears. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait for long - position opportunities after a significant decline. Pay attention to the cost support. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is weak [40]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [41]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term, driven by improved supply - demand and market sentiment [42]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Although there are short - term positive factors, it is not advisable to chase the rise. Consider shorting at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot transactions [45]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [46]. - **Urea**: Wait and see, subject to specific policies. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating [47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term price will oscillate within a range. Be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after the rebound [48].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to face pressure and remain volatile. The supply of high - cis butadiene rubber is increasing, while the demand from tire manufacturers is expected to decline. The substitution demand remains high, but the overall inventory has increased. In the short - term, after a rebound, the market will return to a volatile and pressured pattern. [2][3][4] - The butadiene market is currently in a state of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end. In the short - term, it will be volatile, but in the medium - long term, it is expected to be in a weak pattern due to high supply pressure. [5][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Butadiene - **Supply** - In the current cycle (20251107 - 1113), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 11.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 million tons (+2.05%). Next week, the output is expected to reach about 11.55 million tons. [5] - From 2024 to 2025, many new butadiene production capacities have been put into operation, with a total of 38 million tons in 2024 and 86 million tons in 2025. [10][12] - There are many device maintenance plans from 2024 to 2025, which will affect the supply in different periods. [16] - **Demand** - In the medium - term, the high operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber maintain a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. In the short - term, with the maintenance of butadiene rubber plants in November, the rigid demand procurement is expected to decline. [5] - The inventory pressure of ABS is relatively large, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited growth. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand for butadiene. [5] - **Inventory** - From 20251107 - 1112, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to fluctuate slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.30% week - on - week, while the port inventory decreased by 2.68% week - on - week. There are still expectations of relatively concentrated ship arrivals in the later period. [5] 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (High - Cis Butadiene Rubber) - **Supply** - In the current cycle, the production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber has recovered. The output in this cycle was 2.80 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons (+5.92%) compared with last week, and the production capacity utilization rate was 69.92%, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 percentage points. [4] - Some devices are planned for maintenance in the future, which may affect the supply situation. [4] - **Demand** - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline further. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains high, and the substitution demand is also high, so the overall demand side maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. [4] - **Inventory** - As of November 12, 2025, the domestic high - cis butadiene rubber inventory was 3.08 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons (+5.22%) compared with the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises has increased. [4] - **Valuation** - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9700 - 10600 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - end support to NR - BR spread support. [4] - **Strategy** - For unilateral trading, adopt a medium - term short - selling approach on rallies, and avoid chasing short positions. The intraday trading may show wide - range fluctuations due to capital games. The upper pressure is 10500 - 10600 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 9600 - 9700 yuan/ton. - For cross - variety trading, the NR - BR spread is at a high level and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,400 - 10,700 in the short - term. Next week, due to the slight delay of Maoming Petrochemical's maintenance until the end of the month and the gradual output after the restart of Qilu Petrochemical, Sichuan Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical's devices, the production enterprise inventory is expected to increase, while the trading enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of the tire industry is expected to decline further as the number of maintenance days of the maintenance enterprises increases next week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,365, with a week - on - week decrease of 32. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,980 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $62.71 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.45; WTI crude oil is at $58.49 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $2.55. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is $584.25 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $7.5. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $740 per ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $790 per ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 175 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1.314 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 6.025 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 219,000 pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days [2]. Industry News - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. As of November 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons or 5.22% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the current period, with sufficient supply of raw material butadiene and a continuous decline in negotiation prices, the cost side has been dragging down negatively. Both the inventories of production enterprises and sample trading enterprises have decreased. Some devices will restart this week, and supply is expected to increase slightly. However, due to the expected increase in domestic future supply, the cost side of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation of firm price - pressing by downstream terminals is difficult to change, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises may increase slightly. In terms of demand, last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises' devices are operating stably this week, and it is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2601 contract is expected to be between 10,000 - 10,500 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 85; the position of the main contract is 83,698, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,988. The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no change [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,300 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,300 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,350 yuan/ton, with no change; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 85. Brent crude oil is 63.63 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.25; naphtha CFR Japan is 581.75 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 740 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10; WTI crude oil is 59.75 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.32; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons/week, with a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 118; the weekly social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 25,770 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,430 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 3,520 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 160 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.23 days [2] Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.37%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. In October 2025, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly in October. As of November 6, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bearish. The significant decline in butadiene prices has deepened market pessimism, causing a sharp drop in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the adjustment rhythm of spot prices and the price guidance of natural rubber [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - Low - priced butadiene is the main factor affecting the market. The sharp decline in butadiene prices has led to a pessimistic market sentiment, and the futures price of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly. Although there are some changes in supply and demand, the overall market is under pressure from cost - side factors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 6, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,200 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was between 10,200 - 10,300 yuan/ton. The listed price of PetroChina's Southwest sales company was 10,600 yuan/ton. This week, although the butadiene rubber plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted, due to the impact of the decline in butadiene prices, the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's butadiene rubber decreased by 800 yuan/ton, and the price of private resources in Shandong fell below 10,000 yuan/ton [2][5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 10.92 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 4.85%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 2.69 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of - 6.71%. Some butadiene plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while some plants like Beifang Huajin and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production. In the butadiene rubber sector, the plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted, and those of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical were under maintenance [2]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, the sales of four - season tires were mediocre. The northern market entered the off - season, while the southern market provided some support. In the snow - tire market, the channel inventory was sufficient, waiting for the rise of terminal demand. In the all - steel tire market, the transaction price remained stable. Some manufacturers recovered 1 - 2 points of previous promotional policies in November, and there was a possibility of price increases in the future [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 2.98 million tons, a decrease of 6.88% compared to the previous week. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 2.929 million tons, a decrease of 5.15%. Some butadiene plants resumed production, and the inventory of some suppliers increased. There were imported cargoes arriving at the port, but the short - term tradable volume was limited [2]. 3.3 Price Analysis - The prices of synthetic rubber products such as butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber all showed a downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of butadiene from Dalian Hengli decreased by 900 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, a decline of 12.15% [7]. 3.4 Correlation Analysis - The report provides the correlation coefficient heat maps of the price trends of crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties for 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [8]. 3.5 Device Analysis - It details the maintenance and operation status of butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2025, including the maintenance time, capacity, and future plans of each plant [9]. 3.6 Transaction Strategy - For single - side trading, there is no recommended strategy. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2].