Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply of domestic butadiene rubber is expected to continue increasing due to sufficient resources at the spot end and increased production loads of some manufacturers. Meanwhile, downstream demand is affected by maintenance and production control, and the inventory level may further rise this week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week but may slightly rebound this week. The short - term price of the br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,700 - 12,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,155 yuan/ton, and the position volume is 33,981 (a decrease of 3,312). The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons with no change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different manufacturers increased. The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,750 yuan/ton (a rise of 150 yuan/ton), and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,800 yuan/ton (a rise of 100 yuan/ton). The basis of synthetic rubber is - 305 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 60.7 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 1.06 dollars/barrel), and the price of WTI crude oil is 57.13 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 1.19 dollars/barrel). The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 dollars/ton, the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 534.25 dollars/ton, the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 985 dollars/ton (a rise of 10 dollars/ton), and the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,150 yuan/ton (a rise of 200 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons with no change, and the capacity utilization rate is 71.17% (a rise of 0.56 percentage points). The port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons (an increase of 1,400 tons), and the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric - vacuum distillation unit is 54.94% (a decrease of 1.28 percentage points). The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons (a decrease of 0.75 million tons), the weekly capacity utilization rate is 76.76% (a rise of 0.5 percentage points), the weekly production profit is 334 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons (an increase of 500 tons), the manufacturer's inventory is 26,300 tons, and the trader's inventory is 7,180 tons (an increase of 1,490 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces (an increase of 0.663 million pieces). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 3.27 days, and those of semi - steel tires are 47.05 days (an increase of 0.19 days). As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.53% (a decrease of 3.83 percentage points compared with the previous period and an increase of 11.05 percentage points year - on - year), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 57.93% (a decrease of 3.76 percentage points compared with the previous period and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year - on - year) [2]. Industry News - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire sample enterprises decreased because some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and continued production control. In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a month - on - month increase of 4.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of December 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07% [2]. Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

Group 1 - The provincial political consultative conference chairman Zhou Bo conducted research in Panjin City focusing on advancing the "14th Five-Year" period for the green petrochemical cluster towards world-class standards [1] - Zhou Bo emphasized the importance of digital governance and green low-carbon development in the Liao Bin Coastal Economic and Technological Development Zone, advocating for smart empowerment to enhance park management and ensure safety and environmental protection [1] - During visits to various companies, Zhou Bo engaged with business leaders to understand their production operations and development plans, addressing their concerns and coordinating solutions to practical difficulties [1][2] Group 2 - At Northern Huajin Synthetic Rubber (Liaoning) Co., Ltd., Zhou Bo recognized the company's efforts in high-end and differentiated product development, encouraging continued technological upgrades to strengthen the synthetic rubber industry [2] - Panjin Sanli Zhongke New Materials Co., Ltd. has achieved international advanced levels in its ethylene three-step method for producing methyl methacrylate, breaking foreign monopolies and filling domestic gaps, which Zhou Bo praised [2] - Zhou Bo highlighted the need for increased investment in research and development to tackle key industry challenges and "bottleneck" technologies, while also stressing the importance of adhering to environmental and safety regulations to enhance overall safety levels [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to sufficient spot resources and increased production load of some manufacturers, the supply continues to increase, and downstream parking and maintenance affect short - term raw material procurement. It is expected that the inventory level will further rise this week. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. With the resumption around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may rise slightly this week. - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,830 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the position of the main contract is 37,293 lots, down 2,944 lots. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons, unchanged. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in different regions is 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; Brent crude oil is 61.76 US dollars/barrel, up 1.01 US dollars; Naphtha CFR Japan is 522.5 US dollars/ton, down 7.63 US dollars. - The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China price of butadiene is 975 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 58.32 US dollars/barrel, up 1 US dollar; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 8,950 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, up 0.56 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons, up 1,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.94%, down 1.28 percentage points. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 76.76%, up 0.5 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the weekly social inventory is 3.45 million tons, up 0.05 million tons. - The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, down 2,550 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 7,180 tons, up 1,490 tons. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.05 days, up 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.05 days, up 0.19 days. [2] 3.5. Industry News - As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, down 3.83 percentage points month - on - month and 11.05 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, down 3.76 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.37 percentage points year - on - year. - In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, up 1.35 million tons month - on - month (10.38%) and 1.97% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, up 4.65 percentage points month - on - month and down 2.68 percentage points year - on - year. - As of December 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 3.35 million tons, down 0.10 million tons (3.07%) from the previous period. [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is predicted that the inventory level may further increase this week due to continuous supply growth and short - term impact on raw material procurement from downstream maintenance; the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week but may slightly rebound this week; the BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary of Each Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 1,1645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 40,237 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,024 tons; the 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in Shandong, Shanghai, and Guangdong are 11,500 yuan/ton, 11,500 yuan/ton, and 11,600 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the basis of synthetic rubber is - 115 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons; the production profit of butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The production of all - steel tires in the current month is 1.301 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 3.27 days and 47.05 days respectively; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.53%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.83 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 57.93%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - In December, the production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%; the capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, 4.65 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.68 percentage points lower than the same period last year; as of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.07% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term central price of synthetic rubber will move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term [2][4]. - The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be bullish, but it still faces high supply pressure in the medium term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons compared to the expected output in December 2025. One set of equipment with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year is planned for maintenance in the next month. The only established maintenance plan is for Maoming Petrochemical, and some other equipment maintenance plans may be cancelled. Dushanzi Petrochemical's 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant is planned to be shut down throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of the cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the upper limit of the static valuation is invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation instead of the cost side [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue to be weak from December 26, 2025 to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged routine maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and production scheduling at the end of the month decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, resulting in a slight decline in the overall capacity utilization rate [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. The price of cis - butadiene rubber increased due to cost support. The bullish mid - term market outlook in January boosted the enthusiasm of some traders, and with the impact of a small amount of stockpiling before the New Year's Day holiday, some production enterprises significantly destocked, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term trading range will move up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread will gradually narrow [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The weekly output in the next week is expected to be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7]. Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, so the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants decreases, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [9]. - ABS has high inventory pressure, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - The operating rate of SBS has slightly increased, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene with little change [9]. Inventory - From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 0.13% compared to the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.58% compared to the previous week, while the port inventory increased by 3.23% compared to the previous week. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamental Analysis - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To meet the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, the butadiene industry is in a state of continuous expansion, and its expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14][16]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Analysis Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - The output and operating rate data of cis - butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations over the years [47]. - The cost, profit, and gross margin of cis - butadiene rubber production also fluctuate over time [49][50][51]. - The import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years. The weekly apparent demand also fluctuates [53][54][55]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory, shows different trends over time [59][61]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - The inventory and operating rate of tires, an important downstream product of cis - butadiene rubber, also show different trends over the years [63][64].

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term price center of synthetic rubber is expected to move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be strong, but there is still high - supply pressure in the medium term [2][4][7]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View 3.1.1 Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, a growth of 10,100 tons compared to December 2025. One plant is planned for maintenance in the next month, with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year. Some other plant maintenance plans may be cancelled, and a 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Dushanzi Petrochemical is planned to stop production throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation is temporarily invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost supporting the lower - end valuation [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the rigid - demand aspect, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue weak operation from December 26, 2025, to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged regular maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and the end - of - month production schedule decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, so the overall capacity utilization rate may decline slightly [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand is also high. Thus, the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. Affected by factors such as the cost boost, the expected strong market in the first and middle of January, and pre - holiday stocking, some production enterprises significantly reduced inventory, while sample trading enterprises' inventory increased [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (dynamically moving up following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually narrows [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View 3.2.1 Supply From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. Some plants were shut down, and the Dongming plant restarted after a temporary short - stop. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises is about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of output from the Dongming Petrochemical plant [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the reduction of cis - butadiene rubber plant maintenance, the rigid - demand procurement volume of synthetic rubber for butadiene is expected to remain high [9]. - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand for butadiene maintains rigid - demand procurement with little change [9]. 3.2.3 Inventory From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly. The total sample inventory decreased by 0.13% month - on - month compared to last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 4.58% month - on - month, while the sample port inventory increased by 3.23% month - on - month. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene rubber, and cis - butadiene rubber, the butadiene industry is also in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output: The weekly output and daily operating rate data of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber from 2020 to 2025 are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are also provided [47][48]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross - profit rate data of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber from 2015 to 2026 are presented [49][50][51]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export quantity data of cis - butadiene rubber from 2015 to 2025 are presented, as well as the weekly apparent demand data from 2020 to 2026 [52][53][54]. - Inventory: The weekly enterprise inventory, trade - enterprise inventory, and SHFE futures inventory data of cis - butadiene rubber are presented [57][59]. 3.4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand The inventory and operating - rate data of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [61][62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there are few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and the supply remains at a high level. Last week, the price center increased slightly, and market transactions were mainly concentrated on low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders cautiously raised prices, but terminal procurement remained weak. The inventory level of production enterprises increased, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased partially. - The increase in mainstream supply prices provides bottom - support for the butadiene rubber market price. However, due to sufficient spot resources and the production and sales pressure near the end of the year, the inventory of production enterprises is expected to remain high, and the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to decline slightly. - In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises adjusted production flexibly last week. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment pace of enterprises is slow, the finished product inventory is rising. Under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have production suspension or limitation phenomena. The short - term price of the br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11150 - 12000 [2]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 49,563, a decrease of 9,640. The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber was 4,560 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was $61.94 per barrel, an increase of $1.3; WTI crude oil was $58.08 per barrel, an increase of $1.34. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was $745 per ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $534.63 per ton, a decrease of $7.62; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was $965 per ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.61%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 43,300 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 56.22%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 76.76%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 334 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 34,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons; the weekly inventory of manufacturers was 28,850 tons, an increase of 1,250 tons; the weekly inventory of traders was 5,690 tons, a decrease of 720 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.301 million pieces, an increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.831 million pieces, an increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 43.78 days, an increase of 1.87 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.86 days, an increase of 0.38 days. - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In November, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. In November, the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the same period last year. As of December 24, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is expected to remain at a high level before the holiday. The price center of butadiene rubber has moved up, but the weakening near - term fundamentals suppress the upward elasticity of the price. Butadiene is expected to rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoint - **Supply**: During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down, while other mainstream units operated stably. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.065%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber units in the next cycle [4] - **Demand** - **Rigid demand**: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The production scheduling of most semi - steel tire enterprises was stable, and some enterprises increased production slightly. Some all - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline in the next cycle [4] - **Substitute demand**: The spread between the NR - BR main contracts remained at a high level, and the substitute demand remained strong. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintained a high year - on - year growth rate [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price center of butadiene rubber rose slightly this cycle. The market transactions were concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders were cautious about raising prices, while terminal purchases remained weak. The inventory level of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of some trading enterprises decreased [4] - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation fails periodically. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5] - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread gradually changes from narrowing to an oscillatory pattern [5] 2. This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in this cycle was 112,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises next week will be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7] - **Inventory**: In this cycle, domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total inventory of samples increased by 10.06% week - on - week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 1.06% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 20.28% week - on - week. There were imported ships arriving at the port this week, and there are still expectations of ocean - going ships arriving at the port later [7] - **Demand** - **Synthetic rubber**: In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will remain high, and the demand for butadiene will remain high year - on - year. In the short - term, with the decrease in butadiene rubber unit maintenance in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental growth [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained stable with limited changes [9] - **Viewpoint**: The relatively low short - term absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene will rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [7] 3. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, the capacity of butadiene is also expanding continuously, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] - **Supply - side** - **Operating rate**: Data shows the weekly operating rate and production volume trends of butadiene in China from 2019 - 2025 [18] - **Maintenance situation**: Multiple enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out unit maintenance, involving different maintenance capacities and time periods [19] - **Net import volume**: Data presents the monthly import volume, net import volume, and import profit of butadiene in China from 2008 - 2025 [20] - **Demand - side** - **Butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026 [22] - **Styrene - butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 60,000 tons in 2025 and 220,000 tons in 2026 [24][25] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [32][34] - **SBS**: The capacity will increase by 360,000 tons in 2025 and 55,000 tons in 2026 [36][37] - **Inventory - side**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory trends of butadiene in China from 2015 - 2025 [41][42][43] 4. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply** - **Production**: Data shows the weekly production and daily operating rate trends of high - cis butadiene rubber in China from 2020 - 2025. Some enterprises' units are in normal operation, while some are under maintenance or restarting [47][48] - **Cost and profit**: Data shows the daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [49][50][51] - **Import and export**: Data presents the monthly import and export volume and weekly apparent demand trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [52][53][54] - **Inventory**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [56][57] - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tire**: Data shows the inventory and operating rate trends of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 - 2025 [60][61]

Core Insights - The synthetic rubber industry in China is entering a new phase of high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with clear future directions and expectations for growth [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development Strategies - The industry is focusing on five major transformations: industrial collaboration, structural optimization, technological leadership, green low-carbon initiatives, and enhanced global competitiveness [1]. - The market share of high-performance synthetic rubber and specialty elastomers has increased from 30% at the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" to 40% [2]. - There is a need for structural adjustments in the industry, supported by national policies and enterprise development, to address the reliance on imports for certain high-end synthetic rubber products [2]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The industry requires collaborative efforts between the government and enterprises to drive the research and development of key technologies, such as high-end catalysts and green production technologies [6]. - Companies are encouraged to increase R&D investment, with leading firms aiming to allocate over 5% of their revenue to research [7]. - Establishing a national-level synthetic rubber technology innovation center is recommended to tackle critical technological challenges [6]. Group 3: Green Development - Green development is essential for the industry's transition from scale expansion to quality improvement, enabling integration into international high-end green supply chains [8]. - The industry has made significant progress in green transformation during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the development of bio-based synthetic rubber and cleaner production processes [8]. - Companies are urged to increase the proportion of renewable energy used and aim for a 25% to 30% reduction in carbon emissions per unit product by 2025 [9]. Group 4: Internationalization Strategy - The synthetic rubber industry faces challenges from global trade protectionism, making international development strategies crucial for overcoming growth bottlenecks [11]. - The average export price of domestic styrene-butadiene block copolymer products has increased by 39%, now exceeding the import price by 12% [11]. - Continuous internationalization is expected to enhance the overall competitiveness of the industry and improve quality control and supply chain management [12].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11395 | 220 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 99013 | -4086 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -10 | 5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11000 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10950 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11000 | 东(日,元/吨) 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11150 | 50 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | -170 62.38 | 东(日,元/吨) -80 0.31 石脑油:CFR日本( ...