Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] Key Figures BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: On October 10, the closing price of the main contract was 11,220, down 102 from the previous day and 325 from the previous week; the trading volume was 71,527, down 3,340 from the previous day and 12,158 from the previous week; the open interest of the main contract was 28,858, down 2,555 from the previous day and 22,296 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 8,120, up 420 from the previous day and down 1,130 from the previous week [3]. - **Price Difference**: The spot - futures basis of cis - butadiene rubber was 130, up 105 from the previous day; the 10 - 11 month spread was 155, up 120 from the previous day; the 11 - 12 month spread was 45, up 5 from the previous day [3]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,350, unchanged from the previous day and down 230 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,250, unchanged from the previous day and down 250 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,500, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 174, up 102 from the previous day and 295 from the previous week; the on - disk processing profit was 44, down 3 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the import profit was - 81,738, down 64 from the previous day and up 1,493 from the previous week; the export profit was 163, up 7 from the previous day and 188 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: On October 10, the Shandong market price was 8,800, down 100 from the previous day and 515 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 8,750, down 50 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,800, down 100 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 6, down 50 from the previous day and 352 from the previous week; the import profit was 187, down 56 from the previous day and 415 from the previous week; the export profit was - 816, up 48 from the previous day [3]. Downstream Products - **Profit**: The cis - butadiene production profit was 44, down 3 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,025, up 75 from the previous day and down 38 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 930, up 70 from the previous day and down 55 from the previous week [3]. Variety Spreads - **Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 13,543, up 2,455 from the previous day and 22,041 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 16,508, up 2,440 from the previous day and 22,216 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was 3,400, down 100 from the previous day and up 130 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week; the cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 350, up 100 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day [3].

国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：弱势运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 本周合成橡胶观点：弱势运行 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 库存 估值 观点 供应 • 2025年10月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量：13.13万吨左右，较9月份预期略增长0.09万吨。预计未来一月共5套装置计划检修，涉及年加工能力42万吨/年。4 季度后顺丁橡胶行业检修相对集中，尤其中石化方面企业普遍在10月初后进入检修流程。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，10月轮胎企业整体订单表现环比弱化。欧盟反倾销因素制约，目前部分欧盟市场为主企业订单环比上月缩减明显，加之连续降雨，居民出行 及运输均受到较大影响，整体需求表现偏弱，部分企业在国庆中秋"双节"期间存5-8天检修计划，期间整体出货表现不及预期，成品库存去库缓慢， 加之市场涨跌局面较为混乱，更 ...

「2025.10.10」 瑞达期货研究院 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 合成橡胶市场周报 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 3 4 「期货市场情况」 行情回顾：国内丁二烯市场小幅下行，节后下游心态观望，部分供方价格下调亦难以刺激成交跟 进，虽下游合成橡胶市场气氛有所支撑，但在成交不佳拖拽下，丁二烯现货行情小幅走低。民营 生产企业延续低价出货，但部分供方存在限量出货情况，中间商入市积极性有所提升，下游询盘 增多。 行情展望：前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置陆续重启，国内产量恢复性提升，齐鲁、扬子、浙石化顺 丁橡胶装置均有检修预期，但也有装置重启，另外茂名石化、裕龙石化顺丁橡胶装置提负运行， 整体产量预期环比有所增长。原料方面，10月虽有镇海炼化与广州石化丁二烯装置存检修计划， 但随着前期降负的华中及华南装置陆续恢复，叠加进口到港，丁二烯供应仍显充裕。需求方面， 假期期间国内部分轮胎企业存5-8天检修计划，拖拽企业产能利用率明显下滑，随着检修企业开工 逐 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 10 - 09 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The output of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase month - on - month. The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,325 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 225 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 31,413, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,801. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 215 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 2,770 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,550 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 225 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,400 tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 66.3%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,650 tons. The production capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 114 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.303 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 28,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.806 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 109,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.16 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.15 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.13 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber both declined slightly [2]

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国合成橡胶行业市场供需态势及发展前景研判报告》 上市企业：博实股份（002698）,亚星化学（600319）,阳谷华泰（300121）,双箭股份（002381）,齐翔腾 达（002408）,海达股份（300320）,软控股份（002073）,中化国际（600500）,三力士（002224）,彤程 新材（603650） 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年8月中国合成橡胶产量为74万吨，同比增长7.4%；2025年1-8月中国合 成橡胶累计产量为584.8万吨，累计增长10.9%。 2020-2025年1-8月中国合成橡胶产量统计图 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, with production resuming and increasing. The cost and supply side lack positive drivers, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while that of trading enterprises has decreased. Near the National Day holiday, the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly. In terms of demand, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels last week, with overall operating rates slightly adjusted. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance period in advance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week. During the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of crude oil and butadiene on the cost side [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The position volume of the main contract was 33,214, a decrease of 5,336. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2,770 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene was 155,400 tons/week, an increase of 4,300 tons/week. The current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.49%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The current - month production of butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons. The current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The current - week production profit of butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons. The manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, with production resuming and increasing. The cost and supply side lack positive drivers, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. - The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, while that of trading enterprises has decreased. It is expected that the overall inventory level of enterprises will decline slightly during the National Day holiday as downstream terminals may gradually pick up goods. - Tire enterprises generally maintained their previous operating levels last week, with only minor adjustments in overall operation. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday for maintenance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week. - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 38,550, a decrease of 1,541. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2,670 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was at $70.13 per barrel, an increase of $0.71; WTI crude oil was at $65.72 per barrel, an increase of $0.74. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was $815 per ton, a decrease of $5; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $608 per ton, a decrease of $0.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was $1,060 per ton, unchanged. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 155,400 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.49%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.16 days, an increase of 0.03 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.15 days, an increase of 0.13 days [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.58%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.72%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. - As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Tire enterprises generally maintained their previous operating levels to reserve post - holiday inventory, with only minor adjustments in overall operation [2] 3.6 Key Concerns - No news on this day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly. Butadiene rubber is affected by macro - sentiment, and the market's attempt to support prices has been hindered. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production, the synthetic rubber market is viewed with a bearish attitude in the short - term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During the reporting period, the prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The temporary shutdown of Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant due to a malfunction did not boost the supply in the short - term as the overall supply of private spot resources was sufficient, and there was an expectation of concentrated restart of maintenance plants at the end of September. The increase in external supply of butadiene led to a decline in the transaction center, and the cost side also lacked driving force. Although the mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber was lowered at the end of the previous period, the price centers of arbitrage resources and private resources in the first and middle of the week were still significantly lower than the spot cost of the two - oil resources. Some industry players were still waiting for a further decline in the mainstream supply price. In the middle and late weeks, the supply of low - priced arbitrage resources decreased, and the price gap between high - end and low - end spot narrowed slightly. As the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end, downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 103,000 tons (-1.91%), and the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%. Devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Fujian Refining & Petrochemical's No.1 unit remained shut down, and production continued to decline [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene rubber plants of Shandong Weite, Taiyo - Yuubu, and Haopu New Materials continued maintenance. Shandong Yihua's plant was shut down temporarily due to a malfunction. The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [2] 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was dull. In some regions, the sales of all - season tires were weak, the social inventory was sufficient and the consumption was slow, so agents were not active in purchasing. For the snow - tire market, product promotion meetings of various brands were held one after another, and the channel inventory was relatively sufficient. Future attention should be paid to the terminal demand [2] - **All - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was average, mainly for regular sales, and the transaction price was stable. There was no obvious pre - holiday stocking, and the inventory was mainly consumed during the period. It is expected that the market stocking volume will increase significantly in the next period [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 277,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13%. Some devices continued to operate at reduced capacity, the refinery inventory decreased, and the suppliers sold more goods before the holiday, so the inventory remained at a relatively low level. The port inventory increased significantly due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels during the week, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - **Price**: The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of major enterprises remained stable during the period, but most prices showed a week - on - week downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's North China Qilu, North China Yanshan, East China Yangzi, and South China Maoming decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][8] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread was 4,040 yuan/ton (-1.22%); the NR - BR spread was 1,005 yuan/ton (+17.54%); the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.12% [2] 3.5 Profit Analysis - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation of butene was 186 yuan/ton, and the production profit through C4 extraction was 1,861.1 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 225 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 1.89% [2] 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - On September 25 local time, US President Trump announced on his social media platform that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1. The crude oil market is in a range - bound game due to geopolitical factors, sanctions, and the expected oversupply in the fundamentals caused by OPEC+ production increases. The US non - farm payroll data for August was lower than market expectations, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, with two more interest rate cuts expected within the year, with a total cut of 50bp or more. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short - term and show a tense trend [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to operate weakly in the short term. The butadiene market will experience short - term fluctuations and is likely to enter a weak pattern in the medium to long term due to supply pressure [2][4][5]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, the short - term trend is oscillatory and under pressure, with a neutral downward drive. However, from a valuation perspective, the decline rate is expected to slow down. The market presents a pattern of both increasing supply and demand, but the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate, leading to increased inventory pressure [4]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Butadiene Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1 Supply - In the current cycle (20250919 - 0925), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 103,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,100 tons or 2.03%. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 105,900 tons, continuing to increase [5]. - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene production capacity is continuously expanding, with the expansion speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, maintaining a year - on - year high demand for butadiene. With the resumption of cis - butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to increase [5]. - In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level with little change [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (20250918 - 0924), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples has rebounded, with a week - on - week increase of 6.72%. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 3.44% week - on - week, while the inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 20.13% week - on - week. As of September 24, the latest inventory at East China ports was about 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons from the previous cycle [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - In the current cycle, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons or 4.75% from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from the previous week. It is expected that the cis - butadiene rubber plants of Haopu New Materials and Taixiang Yubu will resume operation in the next cycle [4]. - The theoretical static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,900 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation range is expected to gradually decline due to the increase in butadiene arrivals [4]. 3.2.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - In terms of rigid demand, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will significantly decline in the next cycle. During the "National Day" holiday, some enterprises plan to take a 5 - 8 - day holiday starting from September 30 or October 1, which will have a significant impact on the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises next week [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between the NR - BR main contracts currently remains in the range of 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a year - on - year high growth rate [4]. 3.2.3 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons or 4.21% from the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises slightly increased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][11][20] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2][11][20] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2][11][20] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Not explicitly stated in the report. The report mainly presents data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, trading volumes, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on September 25 was 11,545, a daily increase of 25 and a weekly increase of 130 [3][12][21]. - The trading volume of the main contract on September 25 was 83,682, a daily decrease of 29,720 and a weekly decrease of 32,429 [3][12][21]. - The open interest of the main contract on September 25 was 51,154, a daily decrease of 7,496 and a weekly decrease of 23,349 [3][12][21]. - The warehouse receipt quantity on September 25 was 9,250, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly decrease of 1,740 [3][12][21]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio on September 25 was 27.65, a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 6 [3][12][21]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The butadiene basis on September 25 was 35, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3][12][21]. - The 8 - 9 month spread on September 25 was - 5, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3][12][21]. - The 9 - 10 month spread on September 25 was 190, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly increase of 45 [3][12][21]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The Shandong market price on September 25 was 11,580, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30 [3][12][21]. - The Chuanhua market price on September 25 was 11,500, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [3][12][21]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on September 25 was 11,700, with no daily or weekly change [3][12][21]. 3.1.4 Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit on September 25 was - 121, a daily increase of 87 and a weekly increase of 142 [3][12][21]. - The futures processing profit on September 25 was - 156, a daily increase of 112 and a weekly increase of 242 [3][12][21]. - The import profit on September 25 was - 83,107, a daily decrease of 151 and a weekly decrease of 128 [3][12][21]. - The export profit on September 25 was - 38, a daily increase of 16 and a weekly decrease of 187 [3][12][21]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) 3.2.1 Price - The Shandong market price on September 25 was 9,315, a daily decrease of 85 and a weekly decrease of 110 [3][12][21]. - The Jiangsu market price on September 25 was 9,175, with no daily change [3][12][21]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on September 25 was 9,150, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [3][12][21]. - The CFR China price on September 25 was 1,060, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 30 [3][12][21]. 3.2.2 Processing and Import - Export - The carbon four extraction profit data on September 25 was not available [3][12][21]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on September 25 was 361, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 305 [3][12][21]. - The import profit on September 25 was 492, a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly increase of 252 [3][12][21]. - The export profit on September 25 was - 1,080, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 259 [3][12][21]. 3.3 Downstream Profit - The butadiene production profit on September 25 was - 156, a daily increase of 112 and a weekly increase of 242 [3][12][21]. - The styrene - butadiene production profit on September 25 was 1,063, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 125 [3][12][21]. - The ABS production profit on September 25 was 106, a daily decrease of 19 and a weekly increase of 109 [3][12][21]. - The SBS (791 - H) production profit on September 25 was 985, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 130 [3][12][21]. 3.4 Price Spreads 3.4.1 Inter - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread on September 25 was - 35,584, a daily increase of 7,446 and a weekly increase of 23,349 [3][12][21]. - The NR - BR spread on September 25 was - 38,724, a daily increase of 7,461 and a weekly increase of 23,479 [3][12][21]. - The Thai mixed - butadiene spread data on September 25 was not available [3][12][21]. - The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread on September 25 was 3,100, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 50 [3][12][21]. 3.4.2 Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread on September 25 was 180, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 30 [3][12][21]. - The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread on September 25 was 1,000, with no daily or weekly change [3][12][21].