Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including rising global bond yields and concerns over economic stability and central bank credibility [4][10][32]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices recently surpassed $3600, while silver exceeded $40, marking historical highs [4]. - The increase in gold and silver prices began in late August, coinciding with a significant rise in global bond yields, particularly in the U.S. and Europe [10][11][15]. - August was labeled as a "black August" for the global bond market, with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5% and German yields reaching their highest since 2011 [11][13]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - The market is currently facing skepticism regarding the effectiveness of central banks in managing economic challenges, including low growth, persistent high inflation, and significant debt deficits [24][32]. - There is a growing concern about sovereign credit risk, leading to a sell-off in long-term bonds, including those from traditionally stable countries like Germany [24][28]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider shortening the duration of U.S. Treasury bond funds due to the current market conditions, as long-term bonds may not see significant gains [33]. - In light of the recent market volatility, there is a recommendation to accumulate precious metals like gold and silver during price dips, with a cautious approach suggested until after the Federal Reserve's official announcement on interest rate cuts [36].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Market Adjustment, Bond Market Rebound - Report Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Yang - Contact: liuyang18036@greendh.com - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3063825 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0016580 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was to rise first and then fall. There is an obvious seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. The yield curve of Treasury bond cash bonds has changed little. The manufacturing PMI in August continued to be below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand being slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index increased slightly. The export of South Korea in August showed a certain growth. The wholesale price of agricultural products continued to rise, and the inflation pressure was limited in the short term. If the stock market continues to be strong, it may suppress the bond market; if the stock index adjusts, it will be beneficial to bond bulls [5][7][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - The main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. On Monday, they refused to fall and rebounded to close a medium - positive line. On Tuesday, there was a small - scale fluctuation adjustment. On Wednesday, they attacked again and closed a medium - positive line. On Thursday, they rose and then fell slightly. On Friday, they fell sharply. For the whole week, the 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.18%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% [5] Stock - Bond Seesaw - The Wind All - A Index hit a new high on Monday this week, then fell for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday, and rebounded sharply on Friday. Although the Treasury bond futures showed independence on some single days, the overall stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious [7] Changes in the Yield Curve of Treasury Bond Cash Bonds at Maturity - As of September 5, compared with August 29, the 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1 BP to 1.41%, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield fell 2 BP to 1.61%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 1 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield fell 3 BP to 2.11% [9] Manufacturing PMI in August - The official manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. Large - scale enterprises continued to expand in the boom range, medium - sized enterprises' prosperity declined, and small - scale enterprises hovered at a low level. The PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry and high - tech manufacturing industry increased. The procurement volume index increased, indicating that corporate procurement activities accelerated [12] Production and Demand in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The production index in August was 50.8%, showing continuous expansion. The new order index was 49.5%, indicating that market demand was still slightly weak. Industries such as medicine and computer communication electronics had rapid production and demand release, while industries such as textile and clothing and chemical raw materials had insufficient production and demand [14] New Export Orders and Import Index in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The new export order index in August was 47.2%, and the import index was 48.0%. The new export order index changed little compared with July. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm, the two sides agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, and China's export growth in August might be acceptable [17] Price Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The purchase price index of major raw materials in August was 53.3%, and the ex - factory price index was 49.1%. The purchase price index of raw materials continued to be in the expansion range, and the expansion amplitude increased in August. The prices of some industries rose, while those of some industries were below the critical point. The average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index in August was basically the same as that in July [19] Inventory Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The raw material inventory index in August was 48.0%, and the finished - product inventory index was 46.8%. The finished - product inventory index fell to a relatively low level again. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits was 4.8%, and the year - on - year growth of finished - product inventory was 2.3%. Manufacturing enterprises were cautious about increasing inventory [22] Business Expectation Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The employment index in August was 47.9%, hovering at a relatively low level. The business activity expectation index was 53.7%, showing a slight rebound in the expectation of future prosperity [24] Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index in August - The non - manufacturing business activity index in August was 50.3%. The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, and the service industry business activity index was 50.5%. Some industries such as capital market services and transportation were in a high - level boom range, while industries such as retail and real estate had weak prosperity [26] Construction Industry Indexes in August - The new order index in August was 40.6%, and the employment index was 43.6%. The business activity expectation index was 51.7%. Affected by weather conditions, the prosperity of the construction industry slowed down [29] Service Industry Indexes in August - The new order index in August was 47.7%, and the employment index was 45.9%. The business activity expectation index was 57.0%, showing a slight upward trend [31] South Korea's Exports in August - South Korea's exports increased by 1.3% year - on - year in August. The daily average export amount calculated by working days increased by 5.8% year - on - year. The semiconductor export amount reached a record high, and the automobile export also showed strong momentum [34] Agricultural Product Price Index - The Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index on September 5 was 117.93, higher than that on August 31 but significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating that the price continued to rise but was still lower than last year [37] Nanhua Industrial Products Index - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index continued to decline after hitting a closing high on July 25. It declined slightly in August and fluctuated narrowly this week, indicating limited short - term inflation pressure [39] Capital Interest Rates - After the end of the month, the capital interest rates fell to a low level this week. The weighted average of DR001 was between 1.31% - 1.32%, and the weighted average of DR007 was around 1.44%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was around 1.66%. The central bank carried out a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) repurchase operation on Friday, which fully offset the due amount [41] Market Logic and Trading Strategies - The manufacturing PMI in August continued to be below the boom - bust line, with economic downward pressure still obvious. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately. The strong rebound of the Wind All - A Index on Friday corresponded to the unilateral decline of Treasury bond futures. If the stock market continues to be strong, it may suppress the bond market; if the stock index adjusts, it will be beneficial to bond bulls. The trading - type investment should conduct band operations [44][45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in job vacancies in the US, which fell to 7.181 million in July, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a slowdown in economic activity and consumer spending [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity across most regions of the US has remained unchanged, with many households' wages not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending [1] - There has been a trend of increasing minimum wage standards across 12 provinces in China this year, with most provinces raising their monthly minimum wage by approximately 8%-12%, resulting in all 31 provinces having a minimum wage exceeding 2000 yuan [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices are rising, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. The reduction in job vacancies is seen as a bullish factor for precious metals [2][17] - The dual-fuel market shows weak performance, with coal inventory increasing and steel production remaining stable, indicating a potential pressure on prices due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][23] - The oil market is experiencing a decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in US inventory levels, with total US crude oil inventory decreasing to 822.493 million barrels [4][12] Group 3 - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's Waller suggests potential interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors [5] - Domestically, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has ruled against US fiber optic exporters, indicating ongoing trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny [6] - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China 50 index, which will take effect on September 19, impacting the composition of the index and potentially influencing market dynamics [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16% to 3813.56 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.65%. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.95%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Index fell by 1.06% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 23640.86 billion yuan, a decrease of about 5109.05 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - In terms of sector performance, photovoltaic and communication sectors led the gains, while military, securities, and chip sectors faced significant declines [1] Investment Strategy - The company maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing strong support for gold prices due to threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of a rate cut in the U.S. in September. Investors are encouraged to pay attention to gold ETFs (518800) [1][2] - The A-share market may face short-term adjustments, primarily due to profit-taking pressures in previously high-performing sectors like technology and military. The recommendation is to switch to lower volatility cyclical and dividend stocks [1] - The bond market showed stability today, with the Shanghai 10-year government bond index slightly up by 0.02%. The company holds a view of "top-down, bottom-up" fluctuations in the bond market, suggesting investors look for low-positioning opportunities [1] Gold Market Insights - The long-term value of gold is supported by the ongoing decline of the dollar credit system, reinforced by recent events involving the Federal Reserve [4] - The dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor by Trump without judicial process poses a challenge to the political norms and the independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5] - The potential appointment of like-minded individuals to the Federal Reserve Board could significantly influence future monetary policy, further challenging the Fed's independence [5] Photovoltaic Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic sector is showing signs of recovery, with the Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) rising by 2.26%. The industry is benefiting from policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving price stability [7] - The core companies in the photovoltaic sector reported a year-on-year revenue decline of 9.7% in the first half of 2025, but there was a sequential improvement in operating rates and revenue in the second quarter [9] - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation through mergers and acquisitions to manage excess capacity and debt, with a focus on price recovery [11]

Group 1 - The Japanese financial market is experiencing a long-awaited "reflation trade," primarily driven by foreign investors, with domestic investors largely absent [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index has risen by 34.2% since hitting a low in April, marking a significant increase attributed to global investor interest [1] - The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates for the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis and has reduced its substantial holdings of Japanese government bonds, leading to a rotation of assets between bonds and stocks [1] Group 2 - Foreign capital inflow into the Japanese stock market this year is the strongest in the past decade, potentially reaching the highest level since the "Abenomics" era began in 2013 [2] - Companies are also engaging in significant stock buybacks, supported by ample cash reserves, which is a positive sign for the market [2] - Despite volatility in the stock and bond markets, the yen has remained relatively stable, with the USD/JPY exchange rate stubbornly holding between 140-160 [2] Group 3 - Value stocks in Japan are outperforming growth stocks, similar to trends seen in other countries during reflation trades, indicating a broader economic growth momentum [5] - Foreign buyers are able to achieve significant excess returns in Japanese government bonds due to the substantial interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [8] - The cost of currency hedging makes it more expensive for Japanese investors to invest in the U.S., limiting their participation in these arbitrage opportunities [11] Group 4 - Japan has lost its title as the "world's largest creditor nation" to Germany, but it still holds a considerable amount of financial assets overseas that could be repatriated if necessary [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Core Insights - Japan's financial market is experiencing a long-awaited reflation trade, but domestic investors are surprisingly absent from this rally [1][4] - Foreign investors have driven the Tokyo stock market to record highs, while also selling off Japanese government bonds, leading to a peak in 30-year bond yields [1][5] - The absence of retail investors in Japan is a notable characteristic of the current market surge, with analysts suggesting that their return could further boost stock prices [4][6] Group 1: Foreign Investment Dynamics - Foreign capital inflow this year is on track to reach the highest level since the introduction of Abenomics in 2013, with a significant impact on the stock market [1][5] - The shift in market structure is being led by foreign investors, who are reshaping Japan's capital market landscape [5][6] - The trend of value stocks outperforming growth stocks reflects typical characteristics of a reflation trade, indicating a more dispersed economic growth signal [6] Group 2: Domestic Investor Sentiment - Japanese retail investors have withdrawn approximately $23 billion this year, indicating a cautious outlook on market prospects [4][6] - Analysts note that the sentiment among retail investors has shifted from extreme pessimism to a more positive outlook recently, which could be beneficial for the market [6] - The participation of domestic investors will be crucial in determining the sustainability of the current market rally, which is primarily driven by foreign investment [6] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Dynamics - Despite significant fluctuations in the stock and bond markets, the yen has remained relatively stable, raising questions about the lack of capital repatriation [7] - Japanese institutions have heavily invested in U.S. Treasury markets, leading to losses after the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, which has contributed to the capital remaining overseas [7] - The current bond market presents unique arbitrage opportunities due to the yield differential between U.S. and Japanese bonds, but domestic investors face higher costs for investing in the U.S. market [7]