Core Viewpoint - Nearly 20 brokerage firms have released their "golden stock" lists for October, indicating a positive outlook for sectors such as electronics, non-ferrous metals, and gaming [1] Sector Analysis - Brokerages are particularly optimistic about the performance of the electronic, non-ferrous metals, and gaming sectors [1] - Upcoming third-quarter reports are expected to reveal companies with performance that may exceed expectations, especially in the electric new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption industries [1] Company Focus - Zhaoyi Innovation has emerged as the most popular "golden stock" for October, receiving recommendations from three brokerage firms: Guohai Securities, Zhongtai Securities, and AVIC Securities [1]

Market Overview - The domestic equity market experienced high-level fluctuations last week, with the Wind All A Index rising by 0.25% and maintaining an average daily trading volume above 2 trillion yuan [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index reached a new high, increasing by 6.47% due to breakthroughs in domestic photolithography technology [1] - Sectors such as new energy, non-ferrous metals, and electronics saw significant gains, while light industry manufacturing, commercial retail, and consumer services faced notable declines [1] Policy Insights - At a press conference on September 22, the CSRC Chairman Wu Qing highlighted the achievements of the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing its role in accelerating technological innovation [1] - Over 90% of newly listed companies in recent years are technology-oriented or have high technological content, with the tech sector now accounting for over 25% of the A-share market capitalization, surpassing the combined market cap of banking, non-bank financials, and real estate [1] - The number of technology companies in the top 50 by market cap increased from 18 at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 24 currently [1] - By the end of August, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan of A-share circulating market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - As of September 25, the total share of stock funds increased by 79.6 billion to 3.52 trillion, while mixed fund shares decreased by 45 billion to 2.96 trillion [2] - The margin trading balance exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, marking a historical high and a net increase of over 600 billion since June 20, contributing significantly to the current market rally [2] - The ongoing market rally, which began on September 24 last year, continues, with artificial intelligence and overseas expansion themes being the main drivers [2] Bond Market Trends - Last week, yields on government bonds continued to rise, with credit bond yields following suit [3] - The central bank's stance on maintaining liquidity support for the banking sector remains evident, which is expected to provide strong support for short- to medium-term bonds [3] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is expected to persist, necessitating attention to the sustainability of policy support for stock market sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The FOF fund managers are optimistic about stock assets in the fourth quarter, focusing on technology growth and commodities, while also considering the role of bonds for volatility management [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Outlook - The probability of corporate profit improvement is higher, making stock assets more attractive [1][3]. - The current stock-bond price ratio is around 5.2%, indicating a favorable environment for stocks despite the recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [3]. - The upward momentum in A-shares is driven by increased capital expenditure in the domestic computing power industry, supported by both domestic and international tech giants [3][4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are currently overweighted, while overseas equity assets and commodities are given limited overweight [5]. - The sectors of technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and energy security have seen significant price increases this year, warranting a premium due to the ongoing AI-driven industrial revolution [5]. - The bond market has improved in terms of value after adjustments, and a neutral duration is recommended for bond allocations [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Structural opportunities exist in technology growth within equity assets, and recently adjusted dividend stocks are also worth attention [6]. - Gold continues to show value in allocation, along with certain industrial commodities that face supply constraints [6].

证券研究报告 北证A股：聚焦"专精特新"主阵地， 政策红利驱动系统性重估，中长期配置价值明确 证券分析师：朱洁羽 执业证书编号：S0600520090004 联系邮箱：zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 二零二五年九月二十六日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心要点 ➢ 一、政策端：服务创新型中小企业主阵地，制度体系持续完善 1）全面920时代来临：2025年10月9日起，北证存量股票将启用920开头新代码，有望提高北证A股辨识度，凸显北交所作为中国第三大证券交易所的独立地位，并为指数编制、行情独立 展示及衍生金融产品创新奠定基础。"深改19 条"后北交所高质量建设稳步推进中，后续公开市场可转债、场内ETF基金、优化发行上市机制等政策有望渐次落地，吸引更多增量资金入场。 2）再融资与并购重组：北交所秉持"小额、快速、灵活、多元"的再融资审核理念，逐步完善融资制度。开市以来，北交所已实施的再融资募集资金总额达14.70亿元，平均为2.45亿元。 并购重组方面，2025年5月16日，北交所修订重大资产重组规则，引入"小额快速"审核机制和重组简易审核程序。2025年5月30日，北交所受理首单重大资产重组— ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 9 月 26 日 策略深度 这是一轮混合牛 本轮牛市仍有望实现慢牛、长牛，结构上类似 2013-2014 年叠加 2016-2017 年，组成先结构牛、后全面牛的混合牛。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 A 股历史牛市回顾。2001 至 2025 年，A 股历史上典型意义上的牛市共计 六轮，前五轮牛市类型各不相同，有全面牛亦有结构牛，驱动逻辑上估 值扩张是共性要素，但盈利驱动方面并不一致，第一轮和第二轮牛市的 宏观背景是经济及全 A 盈利显著提升，而第三轮牛市背后的宏观经济及 A 股盈利则处于承压状态，第四、五轮牛市更多呈现结构性景气。 从资金视角对比前五轮牛市。从增量资金的入市节奏视角，每一轮牛市 都有显著的增量资金，使得牛市的启动可 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that M1 has shown a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 11 percentage points from September 2024 to June 2025, which correlates with a 9 percentage point increase in non-financial corporate cash flow, suggesting a new cash flow cycle for enterprises has begun [1][7][10] - Non-financial operating cash flow saw a notable year-on-year increase of nearly 1 trillion yuan in Q2 2025, marking it as the primary positive contributor to the growth of cash and cash equivalents [7][10][17] - Historical cash flow cycles are referenced, indicating that the current improvements in operating cash flow, narrowing negative contributions from financing cash flow, and reduced negative contributions from investment cash flow align with the characteristics of the beginning of a new cash flow cycle [1][7][17] Group 2 - The overall improvement in non-financial operating cash flow is primarily attributed to reduced purchasing rather than increased sales, with a notable contraction in cash outflows for purchases, which is a rare occurrence historically [2][20][27] - Industries experiencing net inflow expansion due to downstream prosperity include automotive, machinery, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, while those benefiting from significant cost reductions include construction, transportation, real estate, utilities, and new energy [2][8][20] - Leading contributors to cash increment across the A-share market include construction (+1.4 percentage points), new energy (+1.3 percentage points), real estate (+1.0 percentage points), and electronics (+1.0 percentage points), while coal and food & beverage sectors showed negative contributions [3][8][17] Group 3 - The report highlights that the automotive and food & beverage sectors have shown healthy cash flow expansion, indicating improved cash collection and sales quality, which is crucial for maintaining cash flow health [35][36] - The construction and transportation sectors are noted for their significant net inflow expansions, driven by cost control and operational efficiency improvements [2][29] - The electronics sector has benefited from increased demand driven by AI and technological advancements, leading to improved operating cash flow and accelerated capital expenditures [3][8][35]

Core Views - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in the fourth quarter, with increased volatility, following a strong performance in the third quarter led by technology stocks [3][4] - The market is likely to experience a structural recovery in earnings and continued credit repair, supported by a resilient export environment and steady growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment [3][4][19] - Key sectors to focus on include technology, cyclical industries, and consumer sectors, with a balanced style favoring both large and small-cap stocks [4][5] Market Trends - The third quarter saw a bull market with the ChiNext Index and STAR Market leading gains, driven by liquidity easing and improved risk appetite [10][14] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to maintain a low-level recovery in earnings, with potential inflows from foreign investment and new funds, although IPOs and sell-offs may increase [4][5] - The overall market valuation is currently neutral to high, with supportive policies likely to sustain risk appetite [4] Industry Allocation - Technology remains the main focus for investment in the fourth quarter, with significant opportunities in core assets and cyclical sectors [5] - Recommended sectors for attention include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), machinery, electric new energy, pharmaceuticals, military industry, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and non-bank financials [5][19] - The market style is expected to be balanced, with large-cap and small-cap stocks performing well during periods of structural recovery in earnings and credit [5][54]

Core Views - The market experienced a pullback this week, with increased volatility, primarily due to the weakness in the large financial sector and divergence in broad indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has not achieved the expected upward movement and is now in a "central oscillation" phase, with previous low points at 3732 and 3702 providing effective support [1][2][3] - It is anticipated that the Shanghai Composite will continue to consolidate for 1-2 weeks, with the potential to challenge the maximum amplitude since 2015 (5178-2440) at the 0.618 level in Q4 2025, contingent on smooth market rotation [2][3] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 down by 1.30%, 1.98%, and 0.44% respectively, while growth indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 saw slight increases of 0.32% and 0.21% [10][53] - The technology sector dominated, with significant gains in hard technology-related industries such as electric new energy, electronics, and communications, which rose by 3.61%, 2.75%, and 1.01% respectively. In contrast, the financial sector faced declines, with banks and non-banking financials down by 4.09% and 3.80% [13][54] - Market sentiment improved with an increase in average daily trading volume to 2.49 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance continued to rise, reaching 2.40 trillion yuan [21][27] Market Attribution - Key events influencing the market included a consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding the TikTok issue, a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and stable economic performance in China for August, with industrial value-added growth at 5.2% year-on-year [51][52] Future Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to undergo a consolidation phase for 1-2 weeks, with previous low points providing support. The market's ability to form a healthy rotation among sectors will be crucial for future upward movement [2][55] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and consider increasing allocations post-adjustment, particularly favoring real estate, infrastructure, and social services while reducing exposure to technology and media sectors [3][56]

对此，长城证券总部投顾团队指出，从8月25日开始计算，到9月17日，上证指数在这里（3900点附近） 维持了18个交易日的震荡行情。4月以来只有5月14日到6月24日的平台和当前的平台相当。当时震荡阶 段维持了29个交易日。从平台的性质看，两个平台的性质类似，都是大幅上涨后，市场等待主线的出 现。早先的平台由于银行板块的大幅拉升选择方向向上，而目前的平台尚无类似主线打破僵局。 另外，今日还有一个对A股市场未来可能产生深远影响的事件——美联储降息。 北京时间2025年9月18日，美联储宣布降息25BP。市场观点普遍认为，本次美联储降息符合预期，可能 是为预防经济衰退而进行的预防型降息。 市场共识，沪指3900点大关，或迟或早一定会突破。但至少，没有选择今天——2025年9月18日。 早盘，沪指开盘几乎平开，随后震荡整理。9:50分左右开始拉升，10:26分上攻至3899.96点。就在距离 3900点只有0.04点便被攻破、只需要一脚轻轻的油门时，市场却选择了"踩刹车"，至11：13分，已经往 下回撤20个点。 随后在多方的炮火下，沪指重拾升势，午盘前又回到了3895点附近。又是距离3900点只有一小步。 然而下 ...

The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include their construction processes, formulas, evaluations, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on market performance, sector analysis, investor sentiment, capital flows, ETF premiums/discounts, block trades, and institutional activities. These are descriptive analyses and do not involve quantitative modeling or factor-based strategies.