1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] - For urea, due to weak demand and high inventory, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] - For rubber, maintain a long - term bullish view, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term as it follows the trend of industrial products [11] - For PVC, due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory drawdown inflection point appears [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term [18] - For polypropylene, due to high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [19] - For PX, due to lack of upward drivers, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] - For PTA, due to high unexpected maintenance and weak long - term outlook, it is recommended to wait and see [23] - For ethylene glycol, due to high supply and expected inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.15%, to 493.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.29%, to 2795.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 42.00 yuan/ton, or 1.25%, to 3395.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: In the weekly data of Fujeirah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 6.07 million barrels, a 24.26% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 1.82 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.67 million barrels to 6.32 million barrels, a 9.58% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.79 million barrels to 14.21 million barrels, a 16.41% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract fell 21 yuan/ton to 2375 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 83 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively low [4] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 1686 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and exports provide limited support [6] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls believe in limited rubber production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The export expectation has declined. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15100 (0) yuan, STR20 was at 1865 (+10) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1865 (0) dollars [11] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view and wait and see in the short term [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 39 yuan to 4960 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 170 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 301 (+2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of caustic soda decreased [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate also increased. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level for the year, and the valuation pressure is large [13] - **Strategy**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level for the same period, with significant upward correction potential [15][16] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene production is fluctuating moderately, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the benzene - ethylene production has been continuously increasing. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has been significantly decreasing, and the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is fluctuating downward [16] - **Strategy**: Go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Supply and Demand**: There are only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven price decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, and the pressure is high [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6762 yuan, and the PX CFR price fell 2 dollars to 834 dollars. The basis was 66 yuan (- 29), and the 11 - 1 spread was 42 yuan (- 4) [21] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have increased production or restarted [21] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate has increased, and some plants have restarted [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased month - on - month at the end of July [21] - **Valuation**: The PXN is 228 dollars (- 6), and the naphtha cracking spread is 114 dollars (+6) [21] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4610 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply**: The operating rate increased, and some plants restarted. Unexpected maintenance is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues [23] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [23] - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased in early September [23] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee and the futures processing fee both increased [23] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4272 yuan, the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4385 yuan, the basis was 91 yuan (- 11), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 50 yuan (- 5) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate increased, with the synthetic gas - based operating rate increasing significantly. Some domestic and overseas plants had production changes [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the import arrival forecast is 94,000 tons [24] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production is - 645 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production is - 792 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production is 812 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: Go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - Various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts show different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2511 is 495, up 6 with a 1.31% increase; the latest price of liquefied petroleum gas PG2511 is 4,450, down 5 with a 0.11% decrease [4] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.87, down 0.12; the open interest PCR is 1.12, up 0.03 [5] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlying are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 570 and the support level is 480 [6] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 29.4, and the weighted implied volatility is 32.14, up 0.09 [7] 5. Strategies and Recommendations for Different Option Varieties Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, European ARA weekly data shows changes in gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and naphtha inventories. The market is in a bearish trend with pressure above. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Factory and port inventories show changes. The market is in an oversold rebound situation with pressure above. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: The port has a high - inventory pattern, and the market is in a weak trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Terminal loads are stable, and the port is in a state of inventory accumulation. The market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Production and trade inventories show changes, and the downstream start - up rate increases. The market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Social inventories of natural rubber decrease. The market is in a weak consolidation situation with support below and pressure above. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [13] Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Downstream loads increase, and social inventories decrease. The market is in a weak bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14] Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Factory inventories decrease. The market is in a downward consolidation trend with pressure above. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] - **Soda Ash**: Factory and delivery warehouse inventories show changes. The market is in a low - level weak consolidation situation with pressure above. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] Urea Options - Inventories of urea enterprises increase slightly, and the market is in a low - level weak consolidation trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 16 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 塑料 2601 | 7199 | 7232 | 7237 | 7168 | 58 | 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, expect the fundamentals to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [5] - For urea, due to weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, take a long - term bullish view, and a neutral short - term view, suggesting waiting and watching or quick in - and - out operations [11][12] - For PVC, with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, while being cautious about upward movements [12] - For pure benzene and styrene, expect the long - term BZN to repair, and suggest going long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [14] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term [17] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [18] - For PX, with high load and limited inventory accumulation, the valuation has support, and it is suggested to wait and watch [21] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and watch [22] - For ethylene glycol, with high supply and expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities at high prices [23] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 8.90 yuan/barrel, or 1.86%, to 488.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 66.00 yuan/ton, or 2.41%, to 2799.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 87.00 yuan/ton, or 2.65%, to 3375.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 3.83 million barrels to 213.37 million barrels, a 1.83% increase; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.67 million barrels to 90.76 million barrels, a 1.88% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.93 million barrels to 103.23 million barrels, a 0.91% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.60 million barrels to 193.99 million barrels, a 1.36% increase [2] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 15, the 01 contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 101 [5] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is weak, but most of the negative factors have been realized. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while that of inland enterprises is relatively low. The fundamentals are expected to gradually improve [5] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 15, the 01 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 1683 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has increased but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and export support is limited [7] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products generally rose, and NR and RU rebounded [9] - **Fundamentals**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the supply - side positive factors. There are different views among bulls and bears. Bulls focus on weather, seasonality, and demand expectations, while bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand [9][10] - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a long - term bullish view and a neutral short - term view, suggesting waiting and watching or quick in - and - out operations [11][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 45 yuan to 4921 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4740 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 181 (+15) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (0) yuan/ton [12] - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene has increased, and the overall PVC operating rate has risen. The downstream operating rate has also increased. However, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level, and the valuation pressure is large. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak [12] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5920 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7087 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; the basis was 13 yuan/ton, weakening by 117 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 420.8 yuan/ton, up 30.25 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton [15] - **Fundamentals**: The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and the operating rate of styrene is rising. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the demand for three S products is oscillating downward [14][15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect the long - term BZN to repair, and suggest going long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [14] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 7232 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7190 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 42 yuan/ton, weakening by 63 yuan/ton [17] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost has support. The supply capacity is limited, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for agricultural film raw materials has started to stockpile, and the overall operating rate has stabilized at a low level [17] - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price is expected to oscillate upwards [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6966 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 91 yuan/ton, weakening by 53 yuan/ton [18] - **Fundamentals**: The supply capacity is under pressure, and the downstream operating rate has rebounded seasonally. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [18] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 40 yuan to 6752 yuan, the PX CFR rose 4 dollars to 836 dollars, the basis was 95 yuan (- 3), and the 11 - 1 spread was 46 yuan (0) [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PX load is at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance operations in the short term. The PTA new plant has been put into operation, and the PX inventory accumulation is limited. The polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has support at the bottom [20][21] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and watch [21] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 24 yuan to 4672 yuan, the East China spot price rose 25 yuan to 4600 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (- 7), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (- 4) [22] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load has increased, and the downstream load has also increased slightly. The social inventory has decreased. The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal recovery is slow [22] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and watch [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4288 yuan, the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4378 yuan, the basis was 102 yuan (- 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 45 yuan (+2) [23] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load is at a high level, and the downstream load has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased. The cost of ethylene has risen. The domestic supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter [23] - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, while being cautious about the non - realization of weak expectations [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Methanol Industry - The methanol market has a relatively healthy inventory pattern due to high supply in the inland and continuous external procurement by some olefin plants, which supports prices. However, demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, and the overall valuation is neutral. The market is currently swaying between high inventory and weak basis in reality and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices oscillated, with the main trading logic being the continuous game between the supply - tightening expectation caused by geopolitical risks and concerns about weak macro - demand and supply surplus. In the short term, the market may continue to maintain a range - bound pattern in the tug - of - war between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and a strategy of expanding spreads for option trading [7]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of alumina plants and device fluctuations. For PVC, the overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September. Attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [12]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly, mainly due to the phase mismatch between the continuous increase in supply and weak domestic demand. Although export orders support some enterprises, the export's ability to digest inventory is limited. The market sentiment is restricted by high inventory and weak demand [18]. Polyolefin Industry - The market shows a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand", and the core contradiction is not obvious. For PP, the PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, and the basis is still weak. For PE, the current maintenance is relatively high, and the short - term supply pressure is small, but attention should be paid to the supply rhythm. Attention should also be paid to downstream restocking before the Double - Festival [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene. The weekly supply - demand of styrene has improved, and there is an expectation of further improvement in the future. The low price of styrene has support, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [43]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply is increasing to a relatively high level, and the short - term demand has some support, but the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. However, the cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fee repair driving force are limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. For bottle - chips, the supply increases slightly, and the demand may decline, and the processing fee space is limited [47]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 closed at 2379, down 0.34%; MA2509 closed at 2230, up 0.77%. The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59% [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.97%, and the overseas upstream operating rate decreased by 2.52%. The downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37%, while the formaldehyde operating rate increased by 8.92% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent closed at 66.99, up 0.93%; WTI closed at 62.69, up 0.51%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 7.50% [7]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.31%, and NYM ULSD increased by 0.35%. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread increased by 3.13%, and the ULSD M1 - M3 spread increased by 104.46% [7]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC was 4680, unchanged [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PVC operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the caustic soda operating rate data was unavailable. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed varying degrees of increase [12]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1671, up 0.12%. The 05 contract remained unchanged, and the 09 contract decreased by 1.12% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output increased by 0.11%, and the weekly output increased by 1.58%. The plant - level inventory increased by 3.44%, and the port inventory decreased by 11.52% [17]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: L2601 closed at 7169, down 0.55%; PP2601 closed at 6913, down 0.37%. The basis of North China LL decreased by 12.50%, and the basis of East China PP increased by 5.26% [21]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.3% [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, and WTI crude oil increased by 0.5%. The price of CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 0.8%, and the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene increased by 1.2% [43]. - **Styrene Price and Spread**: The East China spot price of styrene decreased by 1.0%, and the EB2510 futures price decreased by 0.9%. The EB - BZ spot spread decreased by 2.1% [43]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, and the price of WTI crude oil increased by 0.5%. The price of CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 0.8%, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 0.7% [47]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash Flow**: The price of POY150/48 remained unchanged, and the cash flow decreased by 1.9%. The price of FDY150/96 remained unchanged, and the cash flow decreased by 27.2% [47].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on energy and chemical options, providing an early - morning strategy report for September 15, 2025 [2] - It covers various sectors including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc., and offers strategies and suggestions for different option varieties [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The energy and chemical sector is segmented into multiple sub - sectors. Each sub - sector's option varieties are analyzed in terms of fundamental information, market trends, option factors, and corresponding strategies are proposed [9] - The overall market trends of different option varieties show characteristics such as being under pressure, fluctuating, and having different levels of strength or weakness [8][10][11] - Strategies mainly include constructing option combination strategies, bear spread strategies, and spot hedging strategies to enhance returns or hedge risks [8][10][11] Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - For different option varieties, the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of their underlying futures contracts are presented [4] Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties are analyzed, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the market [5] - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are identified from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options [6] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility data of different option varieties are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes compared with the annual average [7] Group 5: Strategy and Suggestions for Different Option Varieties Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Based on fundamental data and market trends, it is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: Considering the fundamental situation and market trends, a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are suggested [10] Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: A bear spread strategy for directional trading and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility are recommended, along with a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: A bear spread strategy for directional trading, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are proposed [11] Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: A long - collar strategy for spot hedging is recommended [11] Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: A neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility is suggested [12] Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: A short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility is recommended [13] Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: A long - collar strategy for spot hedging is recommended [14] - **Soda Ash**: A short - volatility combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are proposed [14] Urea Options - A short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market has supply and demand imbalances, with price upward momentum limited [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market is affected by factors such as oil prices and downstream profitability, showing a weak performance [3] - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with price drivers mainly from raw materials and demand showing a mixed picture [4] - The coal - chemical market is expected to stabilize or continue weakly depending on the product, influenced by factors like inventory and demand [5] - The chlor - alkali market has supply - demand issues, with PVC and caustic soda showing different price trends [6] - The soda ash - glass market has high inventories and supply pressure, with prices expected to be in a certain pattern [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures fluctuate around the 5 - day average, with limited upward momentum due to supply increase and weakening downstream acceptance [2] - Polyolefin futures decline, with polyethylene having low supply pressure but weak demand, and polypropylene facing supply pressure and slow demand recovery [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are weak due to factors like oil price decline, downstream poor profitability, and import pressure, but may improve in Q3 [3] - Styrene futures decline, with supply - demand support insufficient due to high inventory and weak new orders [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are affected by oil prices, with PTA price driven by raw materials, and downstream demand showing a positive trend but with some constraints [4] - Ethylene glycol is pressured in the far - month due to new device news, with near - month and spot being strong [4] - Short fiber is expected to be positive in the near - month, with price following cost, and bottle chip has limited processing - margin repair space [4] Coal - Chemical - Methanol prices are weak with high port inventory, but may stabilize with expected increase in MTO device operation and downstream stocking [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with supply - demand remaining loose and the market expected to continue weakly [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices may fluctuate weakly due to high supply pressure, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - Caustic soda prices may have a wide - range oscillation pattern due to factors like demand support and supply pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuate narrowly, with high inventory and supply pressure, and it's advisable to short at high rebounds [7] - Glass prices may have a wide - range oscillation due to factors like inventory decline and potential macro - level positives [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is under pressure due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and concerns about supply - overcapacity, with the IEA suggesting a possible surplus in 2026. The price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The fuel oil market is also in a state of oscillation. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by factors such as weak demand before the refinery maintenance season and after the end of summer power generation demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply in Singapore may increase, and the market should focus on the cost - side fluctuations of crude oil [3]. - The asphalt price is expected to rise further as the supply pressure is limited and the seasonal demand in September and October is expected to increase. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the cost - side fluctuations of oil prices [3]. - The polyester market is expected to be weak with oscillations. Although the fundamentals of PX are improving, TA and ethylene glycol still face challenges such as weak downstream demand and uncertain supply recovery [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, but the weather in the production areas during the peak - production season needs to be closely monitored [7]. - The methanol price is expected to reach a temporary bottom. Although the supply will gradually increase, the demand from MTO devices in the East China region is expected to increase, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the demand is picking up with the arrival of the peak season, the cost pressure restricts the price upward movement [7]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply remains high, the domestic demand recovers slowly, and the export is affected by anti - dumping policies, with large inventory pressure [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the oil price dropped. The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.7 million barrels per day and predicted an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ is increasing supply, which has led to concerns about overcapacity and pressured the oil price. The demand growth is slower than the supply growth, and the OPEC monthly report shows an increase in production in August [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose 0.47%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract fell 0.53%. The supply in Singapore may increase, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is affected by weak demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose 0.76%. The domestic refinery asphalt inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the device operating rate decreased. The supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise with the arrival of the demand peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA and EG prices fell, and PX prices rose slightly. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. Some production devices have maintenance or restart plans, and the market is expected to be weak with oscillations [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of various rubber varieties dropped. The operating rate of tire enterprises in Shandong increased, the demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a temporary low due to domestic device maintenance, but it will gradually increase. The Iranian device has high load and stable shipping volume, but there is an expected maintenance. The MTO device in the East China region may start up, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of various polyolefin products show different trends. The supply will remain high, the demand is picking up with the peak season, but the cost pressure makes the market expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions are adjusted slightly. The domestic real - estate construction is recovering, but the demand for pipes and profiles has limited growth. The supply is high, the export is affected by policies, and the inventory pressure is large, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on September 12, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc., and also shows the changes in these data compared with the previous period and their positions in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 and suggested a possible surplus in 2026 due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries. The OPEC monthly report shows an increase in OPEC+ crude oil production in August [14][15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., through charts [17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., through charts [35]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., through charts [48]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc., through charts [64]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc., through charts [75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [84].