1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Short - term, the gold price is bullish due to the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. The weak employment data in the US in August strengthens the easing expectation. In the long - term, the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the de - dollarization trend, and geopolitical risks boost the currency attribute and safe - haven demand of gold. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures have exceeded 100 billion yuan, indicating strong market enthusiasm [3]. - **Copper**: In the short term, with a tight supply, the copper price faces obvious pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with the price expected to stand firm at 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors such as the weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price. Fundamentally, the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and the recovery of downstream demand in the peak season support the price. However, the late de - stocking node restricts the upward range of the aluminum price in the short term, and the SHFE aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore has a price advantage, and the overseas zinc ore supply is abundant. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. - **Nickel**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is also strong, and the stainless - steel market is in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index, rate - cut expectations, and the difficulty of stainless - steel exports [84]. - **Tin**: In the short term, the factors affecting the tin price are not obvious, and the technical level can be used for judgment. The price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there is an optimistic short - term expectation for the resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine, the peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" still provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. - **Silicon**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty in price trends. Investors are advised to be cautious [120]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the initial jobless claims soared to 263,000, which strengthened the easing expectation. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures exceeded 100 billion yuan, with an increase of more than 17 billion yuan in a month [3]. Copper - **Price Forecast**: In the short term, the copper price has pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton and may be supported by the 20 - day moving average, with the expectation of reaching 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Southern Reserve, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,755 yuan/ton, 80,990 yuan/ton, 80,930 yuan/ton, and 81,080 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.72%, 1.06%, 1.01%, and 1.01% [22]. Aluminum - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price [37]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The aluminum - water ratio has increased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is recovering, mainly in the industrial profile sector led by photovoltaics. The possible termination of the tax - refund policy for some recycled aluminum enterprises may reduce the supply of recycled aluminum and support the consumption of primary aluminum [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side is in an oversupply state, with abundant overseas zinc ore supply and high zinc ore imports. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is volatile [84]. Tin - **Price Judgment**: In the short term, the technical level can be used to judge the tin price, and the price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Logic**: The peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. Silicon - **Industry Outlook**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure, and the polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The unexpected decline in the US PPI data has temporarily alleviated market concerns about US inflation. Combined with the weakening of the US non - farm employment data, the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been further strengthened, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming US CPI data may affect the subsequent rate - cut amplitude and bring new fluctuations to the market [2][3]. - For various metals, their market trends are influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Each metal has its own trading strategy based on its specific situation. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.45% to $3639.81/oz, and London silver rose 0.57% to $41.14/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.07% to 97.81, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.044%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.06% to 7.1207. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg [2]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI annual rate was 2.6%, a new low since June, and the monthly rate was - 0.1%. The Trump administration's actions and the Fed's possible rate - cut probability are also important factors [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The unexpected decline in PPI and the weak labor market data have strengthened the market's expectation of rate cuts, and precious metals continue to trade near historical highs. The upcoming CPI data may affect the rate - cut amplitude [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For Shanghai gold, continue to hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; for Shanghai silver, consider lightly testing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and the LME copper closed at $10012/ton, up 0.96%. The LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.50 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 30.87 million tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and Peru's copper production in July increased year - on - year [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI and weak employment data have increased the market's expectation of rate cuts. The supply of copper is tight due to production accidents, and the domestic refined copper production in September is expected to decline, but imports increase. The terminal consumption is weak, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider laying out long positions after a callback, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2510 contract rose 10 yuan to 2915 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The approval of an Indian bauxite mining project was postponed, which may affect the production of an alumina plant. There were spot alumina procurement tenders by electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and the industry's average profit in August increased [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The oversupply of alumina is more obvious in the spot market, and the prices are falling. The supply is flowing from the north to the south, and the fundamental weakness remains. However, beware of the interference of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 40 to 20390 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycling of aluminum, such as tax refund and reverse invoicing compliance, have affected some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi. The industry's average cost and profit in August were calculated, and the inventory in some regions increased [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the supply is tightening. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 20830 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions decreased [24]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and some overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of rate cuts is rising. The fundamentals are supportive with increased aluminum - water conversion rate, decreased ingot production, and improved downstream开工率. Overseas projects' progress needs attention [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price will fluctuate with the external market in the short term. Consider going long after a callback. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.72% to $2887.5/ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.34% to 22245 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average [29]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance range for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The domestic zinc inventory increased, and a company's production data was disclosed [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weak, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME inventory is decreasing and has a certain support for the price [31][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and consider lightly laying out short positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.53% to $1988.5/ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.03% to 16845 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead inventory increased, and a battery manufacturer planned to expand production, and a smelter was about to resume production [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and shutdown of domestic lead smelters due to losses and weak consumption may lead to a weak supply - demand pattern in the short term, and the price will continue to fluctuate [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may move sideways in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $65 to $15170/ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 290 to 120780 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained stable [39]. - **Important Information**: SMM predicted the increase of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore prices, and national economic and social development policies were reported [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weak US employment data and high supply growth rate limit the upward space of nickel prices, and the price trend is weak [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [40][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract rose 20 to 12845 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported. The inventory in Foshan decreased [44]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel deep - processing project was approved, and the market was worried about recession risks despite the Fed's expected rate cut [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's expected rate cut in September and weak domestic consumption growth, combined with supply pressure, are expected to keep the stainless - steel price in a wide - range fluctuation pattern [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 1.58% to 8665 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [47][49]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state. The low inventory of manufacturers and high acceptance of high - price silicon by downstream enterprises provide support for price increases. The silicon industry conference may bring good news [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract fell 4.40% to 52885 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of some products decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: National economic and social development policies were reported. The silicon wafer production in September increased, and the polysilicon production was expected to remain stable. The industry's total inventory was high [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but the short - term 11th contract may face a callback due to factors such as futures premium and concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation. After a callback and stabilization, long positions are recommended [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in long positions after a callback and stabilization, conduct reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [54]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract fell 3620 to 70720 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial carbonate decreased [56]. - **Important Information**: Shanghai's new energy power - grid price reform policy and national fiscal policy information were reported [56][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is still tight in the short term, and the price has technical support. However, the long - term oversupply is difficult to reverse [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.93% to 271990 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable. The trading volume was acceptable [60]. - **Important Information**: The US 8 - month PPI data, China's 8 - month CPI and PPI data were released, and the domestic refined tin production in August decreased [60][62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in US PPI has strengthened the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the traditional consumption season may be postponed. The LME and domestic inventories have changed [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price will be boosted in the short term due to the strengthened Fed rate - cut expectation. Wait and see for options [63].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report on September 11, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Copper - **Market Performance**: LME copper rose 0.96% to $10012/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton. The US PPI data was weaker than expected, and the US bond yield declined, leading to the rise of copper prices [2] - **Industry Situation**: LME copper inventory decreased by 225 to 155050 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 14.0% and a Cash/3M discount of $56/ton. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 19,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased and the procurement volume increased. The import of SHFE copper was slightly in the red, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1620 yuan/ton, and the supply - demand of recycled copper was affected by policy adjustments [2] - **Price Outlook**: The market is hesitating between recession and interest - rate cut trading. If recession trading comes first, the attitude at the actual interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish. Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and domestic copper production declines marginally. Although current consumption is weak, copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 79500 - 80800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9900 - 10100 dollars/ton [2] Group 3: Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. LME aluminum fell 0.21% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20830 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.7 to 542,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly increased to 65,000 tons [4] - **Industry Situation**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 473,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 85,500 tons. The aluminum bar processing fee rebounded, but the market trading was average. The spot in East China was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the futures, and the discount widened. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 22.7%, with a Cash/3M premium of $2.92/ton [4] - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are in a game between macro - expectations and fundamental realities. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provide support, but the weak improvement in domestic terminal demand restricts the upside. The key is to focus on the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory trends. If inventory turns, aluminum prices may rise further. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20700 - 20960 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2600 - 2650 dollars/ton [4] Group 4: Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.74% to 16804 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $15 to $1977/ton [5] - **Industry Situation**: The lead industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries is tight, restricting the smelter's production. The continuous losses of secondary lead have led to production cuts in Anhui. Downstream consumption is weaker than in previous years, and dealers' finished - product inventory is at a historical high [5] - **Price Outlook**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally narrowing, providing some support. However, if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting recovers, lead prices still face significant downside risks [5] Group 5: Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.34% to 22211 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $13.5 to $2871/ton [7] - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore and zinc ingots remain in surplus, with inventory accumulation. The TC of zinc concentrates is rising, and the domestic supply is loose. The downstream enterprise's operating rate has not improved significantly. After long - term destocking in the LME market, the LME zinc warrant is at a low level, and the LME zinc monthly spread has increased. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets is intensifying, and the SHFE - LME ratio is accelerating downward [7] - **Price Outlook**: Some institutional and foreign - capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with high consensus on shorting. It is expected to show a low - level oscillating pattern with limited short - term downside [7] Group 6: Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is slow. Yunnan is still facing a severe shortage of tin mines, with smelters' raw - material inventory generally less than 30 days and a low operating rate. Some smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in September is expected to decline by 29.89% month - on - month [8] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak traditional consumption areas. Although AI computing power has increased some tin demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The off - season demand is weak, but the short - term supply decline is significant. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Group 7: Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices oscillated. The US PPI data cooled unexpectedly, and the US dollar index initially fell and then recovered [10] - **Industry Situation**: The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved but is still low. The stainless - steel plants' production in August and September is expected to increase, supporting the nickel - iron price. The supply of intermediate products is short, and the demand from some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers provides price support [10] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive non - ferrous metals, including nickel, to strengthen. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract this week is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The Wukuang Steel Union's lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) fell 2.73% to 71,237 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 70,720 yuan, down 2.99% [12] - **Industry Situation**: The resumption of the Jiaxiaowo mine may reverse the supply - demand repair expectation, suppressing lithium prices. In September, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue destocking [12] - **Price Outlook**: The spot strength may support the bottom. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 68,600 - 72,500 yuan/ton [12] Group 9: Alumina - **Market Performance**: On September 10, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.14% to 2934 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 0.4 to 391,000 lots [14] - **Industry Situation**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10 to 3020 yuan/ton, with a premium of 105 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $337/ton, and the import window is open. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78 to 121,900 tons [14] - **Price Outlook**: Overseas ore supply is improving, and the over - capacity in the smelting segment is difficult to change in the short term. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton [14] Group 10: Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 2037 to 285,900 lots [17] - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable. The raw - material prices also remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 2.71%, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.09% [17] - **Market Outlook**: The stainless - steel spot market is oscillating narrowly, with price differentiation. The 304 cold - rolled price is stable with light trading, while the 304 hot - rolled price has increased slightly due to tight supply [17] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.22% to 20350 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position increased by 0.23 to 11,700 lots [19] - **Industry Situation**: The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost is strongly supported by the increased supply disturbance of domestic and overseas scrap aluminum. The exchange has lowered the margin ratio, increasing market activity [19] - **Price Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term [19] Group 12: Data Summary - The report also provides daily data on non - ferrous metals, including LME and SHFE inventory, inventory changes, warrant cancellation ratio, cash - 3M spread, SHFE position, position changes, spot premium, and import - export data [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It points out that due to the weakness of the US labor market and potential tariff impacts, the "stagflation-like" risk remains, and precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance at high levels. For other metals, factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomics, and geopolitical events are considered to determine their market trends and provide corresponding trading strategies [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold initially broke through the 3670 mark but then dropped, closing down 0.32% at $3624.17 per ounce; London silver closed down 1.13% at $40.86 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a historical high and closed up 0.11% at 832.6 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed up 1.08% at 9760 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index closed up 0.33% at 97.77, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.0799%, and the RMB against the US dollar closed up 0.06% at 7.125 [3]. - **Important Information**: The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case; the US economy may have added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending in March than previously estimated; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93%, and Israel launched an attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weakness of the US labor market and geopolitical events led to the volatile trend of gold. Despite short - term fluctuations, precious metals are expected to remain strong at high levels due to the "stagflation - like" risk [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing long positions in gold against the 5 - day moving average; take profit on existing long positions in silver at high prices. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed down 0.14% at 79,600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper closed up 0.1% at $9916.5 per ton. The LME inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,200 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1917 tons to 307,600 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000; Anglo American agreed to merge with Teck Resources; a mining accident in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia led to the suspension of operations [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's 9 - month interest rate cut is confirmed, but the market's concern about recession has increased. The supply of refined copper in September is expected to decline, and the inventory in non - US regions is accumulating slowly. The consumption shows a weakening trend, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term correction, pay attention to the support level of 78,500 yuan per ton and consider buying after the price stabilizes. Conduct cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage of buying 10 and selling 12. Wait and see for options [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc closed down 0.21% at $2867 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 closed down 0.32% at 22,130 yuan per ton. The domestic spot market trading was average [10]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT issued the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025; the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased; Huayu Mining completed a certain amount of mining and metal production in the first half of 2025 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weaker than expected, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Existing short positions can continue to be held, beware of the impact of funds on zinc prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [12]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead closed down 0.6% at $1978 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 closed down 0.56% at 16,820 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [14]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased; a lead - acid battery manufacturer in the southwest plans to start production in October; a large recycled lead smelter in the east is about to resume production [14][15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and suspension of production of domestic recycled lead smelters have increased, and the consumption is weak. The short - term supply and demand may maintain a double - weak pattern, and the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term Shanghai lead price may move sideways. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][18]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price dropped to $15,105 per ton, and the inventory increased to 218,070 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2510 dropped to 120,400 yuan per ton [19]. - **Important Information**: Auric Mining completed a major acquisition of nickel mining rights [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US employment data and the continuous increase in LME inventory indicate an oversupply of refined nickel in China. The supply growth rate in September is higher, and the upward space of nickel price is limited [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract dropped to 12,835 yuan per ton, and the spot market prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [23]. - **Important Information**: The US stainless steel price remained stable in August due to tariffs, and potential trade quota agreements may bring new variables [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September is rising, but the market is more worried about recession. The domestic consumption growth is limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price will maintain a wide - range shock. Wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8410 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The spot price was stable [26]. - **Important Information**: A 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Karamay is under investment promotion [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon remain in a tight - balance state. The price increase space is greater than the decrease space. The futures may continue to correct, and buying can be considered near the August low [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: There may be a short - term correction, buy after a full correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options and participate in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts [27][28]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 53,520 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon decreased [30]. - **Important Information**: The installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the US in the first half of 2025 accounted for 75% of the new power installed capacity [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for polysilicon in September is about 116,000 tons, and the production is expected to be around 130,000 tons. The long - term price trend is upward, but the short - term may correct [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in the correction band with a light position and short - term, and participate in long positions after the correction stabilizes. Conduct reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts and buy a wide - straddle option for profit - taking [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract dropped to 72,900 yuan per ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate remained unchanged [34]. - **Important Information**: The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers plans to establish a new energy vehicle battery branch; CATL launched a new battery technology; the export of new energy passenger vehicles in August increased year - on - year [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market interprets that CATL may resume production early, and the long - term trend will return to the logic of oversupply [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 269,040 yuan per ton, down 0.28%. The spot market trading was okay, but the market was skeptical about short - term consumption improvement [38]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US non - farm data led to a weak trend of tin. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to recover late. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and other factors [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price may be weak and volatile. Wait and see for options [39].

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/09/10 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The equity market may enter a high - level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial. The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate in the 1.74% - 1.8% range [3]. - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The steel market is weak, while the iron ore market is strong. The copper market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The energy and chemical markets show various trends. For example, oil prices are supported by geopolitical risks but limited by a loose supply - demand situation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and reports [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.23%, - 0.11%, - 0.81%, and - 0.83% respectively. The market is supported by pro - cyclical factors and continues to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to tight funds and concerns about increased fund redemption fees, the sentiment in the bond futures market is weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have reignited. Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver should be traded in the $40 - 42 range [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) is weakly oscillating, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices have weakened. Long positions should be closed and wait for further observation. The support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are around 3100 and 3300 respectively [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and the price is strong. Long positions can be taken at low prices in the 780 - 830 range [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is weakly oscillating. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be used [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. Short positions can be taken at high prices, and an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to inflation data on Thursday. The main contract is expected to trade between 78500 - 80500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The processing industry's weekly operating rate is recovering. The main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, etc. have their respective expected trading ranges [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel also have their expected price ranges and corresponding market trends [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support the rebound of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand situation limits the upside. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [3]. - **Urea**: The consumption in industry and agriculture is not obvious, and the market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. A short - selling strategy can be considered, and the implied volatility can be reduced at high levels on the options side [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: PX and PTA have different supply - demand expectations in September. They should be traded within their respective price ranges, and some spread arbitrage strategies can be used [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Ethanol, caustic soda, PVC, etc. also have their own market trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, but the domestic market has a bullish expectation. Long positions can be taken for the 01 contract in the long term [3]. - **Livestock and Grains**: The supply pressure of pigs is realized, and the corn market has limited rebound. Palm oil may be strong, and sugar is expected to be weak [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Cotton, eggs, apples, etc. also have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the market. Wait and see the actual progress [3]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and the rubber price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by polysilicon, the price has weakened at the end of the session. The price may fluctuate between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Affected by news, the market has declined. Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to increased news interference, the market is expected to be weak. A short - selling strategy can be considered [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: Affected by weak US employment data, the ADP employment in August only increased by 54,000, strengthening the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September. Multiple factors jointly support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - **Copper**: The market focus is on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment, independence issues, and bond - market risks. Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to relatively tight supply and the stimulus of US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [17]. - **Aluminum**: In the short term, aluminum fluctuates with an upward bias, but there is pressure above. To break through the 21,000 pressure level, the peak - season expectations need to be fulfilled, demand should improve significantly, and inventory should start to decline. Alumina has insufficient upward drive in the short term, and its price is approaching the 2,880 yuan cost line. Cast aluminum alloy is more resilient due to cost support [37][38][39]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, zinc shows a pattern of being strong overseas and weak domestically. Observe macro and consumption factors, and it will mainly fluctuate [68]. - **Nickel**: Currently, the nickel ore price has a slight decline, other nickel products are basically stable, and the MHP benchmark price has an upward trend. Stainless - steel inventory has decreased for several weeks, and demand sentiment has improved in the peak season. Sulfuric - nickel prices are stable. Pay continuous attention to the impact of interest - rate cut expectations and the US dollar trend [83]. - **Tin**: In the short term, tin prices have an upward driving force due to tight supply, despite certain demand pressure [98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. If the conversion of orders to actual transactions is less than expected, the market may remain weakly oscillating; if the receiving demand is gradually released, prices may be supported [110]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: In the short term, industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September. In the medium - to - long term, they have an upward expectation. Polysilicon is in a "wide - range oscillation" state, and short - term price fluctuations due to news stimuli should be vigilant [119]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Weak US employment data, the signing of the US - Japan trade agreement, investigations into the Fed's independence, and the expansion of the US trade deficit support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - **Market Data**: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, inventory, and long - term fund positions are presented [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose due to multiple factors but fell on Wednesday. In the short term, they may remain strong due to supply and demand factors [17]. - **Market Data**: Include copper futures and spot prices, import and export data, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures' main contract is 80,140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.46% [18][23][33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias in the short term, while alumina prices are under pressure. Cast aluminum alloy is relatively resilient [37][38][39]. - **Market Data**: Provide data on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, inventory, and basis [40][54][63]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: In the short term, zinc prices show an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern and will mainly fluctuate [68]. - **Market Data**: Include zinc futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai zinc futures' main contract is 22,155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [69][74][79]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel ore prices decline slightly, other nickel products are stable, and the MHP benchmark price rises. Stainless - steel demand improves in the peak season, and sulfuric - nickel prices are stable [83]. - **Market Data**: Present data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins [84][93]. Tin - **Price Driving Force**: Tin prices are driven up by tight supply in the short term [98]. - **Market Data**: Include tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai tin futures' main contract is 272,460 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [99][104][106]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. The future trend depends on downstream receiving demand [110]. - **Market Data**: Provide data on lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory, and price differences [111][113][117]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September and have an upward expectation in the medium - to - long term. Polysilicon remains in a "wide - range oscillation" state [119]. - **Market Data**: Include industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, inventory, and production data [120][121][140].