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广发期货日评-20250815
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 06:44
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:03
行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 8 月 15 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...
商品日报(8月14日):双焦领跌 多晶硅、鸡蛋跌超3%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 14:01
Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity market experienced widespread declines on August 14, with coking coal dropping over 6% and coke falling over 4% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1435.41 points, down 10.06 points or 0.7% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1987.6 points, down 16.05 points or 0.8% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal and Coke Market - Coking coal saw a significant drop, with prices falling over 6% after a brief dip of over 7% during the trading session [2] - Supply-side factors such as coal mine production inspections and the implementation of the 276 work system continue to disrupt market sentiment, limiting capacity release [2] - The daily customs clearance at the Mengkou port has recovered to over 1300 vehicles, alleviating some supply pressure [2] Group 3: Multi-Crystalline Silicon Market - Multi-crystalline silicon futures fell over 3%, with market dynamics expected to alternate between fundamental logic and "anti-involution" logic in the second half of the year [3] - Fluctuations in electricity prices will directly impact production costs, affecting the price center of multi-crystalline silicon [3] - The demand side has seen limited growth expectations due to the early consumption of market demand during the first half of the year [3] Group 4: Alkali and LPG Market - Caustic soda was one of the few industrial products to rise, increasing by 1.69% due to limited supply pressure from maintenance and unstarted production lines [4] - The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity decreased by 1 percentage point to 84.1% [4] - LPG prices rose for the fourth consecutive day, supported by a decrease in port arrivals and a recovery in demand from propane deep processing [6]
综合晨报-20250814
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 10:43
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250812
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:04
Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined, with the 2509 contract dropping 3.02%, the 2510 contract falling 2.69%, and the 2511 contract decreasing 1.62% [7] - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, up 0.18 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin from the previous day [7] Core View - The egg price dropped significantly last week, and the supply pressure this year is large. The spot price in August is expected to have a second wave of increase, but the upper limit has been lowered [8] - The futures market has factored in the expectation of a second - wave increase in the peak season. The 09 contract still has a premium of about 400 points over the spot average price [8] Operation Suggestions - If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week, the futures may be slightly stronger, and the basis may be narrowed by the way of spot price rising and futures price stabilizing [8] - Long - position investors can appropriately participate in bottom - fishing for the fourth - quarter contracts, but should operate in stages and not be overly greedy [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9] - In July, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, a decrease compared with June and the same period in 2024 [9] - The chicken culling volume has been gradually decreasing since June, and the current average age of culled chickens is 506 days [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The data sources include Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [14][17][19]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250811
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:08
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under research is the egg industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, egg prices dropped significantly. The peak - season spot price started to rise around July 10th this year, later than usual. Market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - stored eggs' release hit the market. The current correction in egg prices is about 0.5 yuan/jin on average, greater than the usual range of 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/jin, indicating high supply pressure [8] - Most产区 prices stabilized on Thursday and Friday this week. As it is still the summer peak season and there is an expectation of pre - holiday stockpiling in September, the spot price is expected to have a second wave of increase in August, but the upper limit has been adjusted downwards [8] - In the futures market, due to the sharp drop in the spot price last weekend, futures were notably weak in the first few trading days of this week. The near - month 09 contract hit a record low. The market has factored in the expectation of a second peak - season increase. The 09 contract is still at a premium of about 400 points over the spot average price. Considering packaging costs for delivery, it will face significant pressure when the spot price reaches around 3.6 yuan/jin [8] - If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week as expected, futures may be slightly stronger. Subsequently, the basis may be narrowed through the spot price rising while the futures price remains stable. The fourth - quarter contracts are also at historical lows, corresponding to a weak fundamental situation. Bulls can participate in bottom - fishing for the spot's second increase but should avoid over - staying in the market due to the medium - term bearish fundamentals [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3376, the opening price was 3393, the highest price was 3393, the lowest price was 3357, the closing price was 3362, down 14 points or 0.41%. The trading volume was 153,259, the open interest was 203,664, and the open interest increased by 862 [7] - For the 2510 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3288, the opening price was 3292, the highest price was 3304, the lowest price was 3253, the closing price was 3257, down 31 points or 0.94%. The trading volume was 98,643, the open interest was 205,141, and the open interest increased by 16,335 [7] - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3336, the opening price was 3340, the highest price was 3343, the lowest price was 3316, the closing price was 3326, down 10 points or 0.30%. The trading volume was 26,452, the open interest was 96,200, and the open interest increased by 917 [7] - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.90 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.17 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 09 contract declined by 0.41% [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week as expected, futures may be slightly stronger. Bulls can participate in bottom - fishing for the fourth - quarter contracts but should operate in a phased manner due to the medium - term bearish fundamentals [8] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on the rise. As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.356 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9] - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, less than that in June (40.75 million) and in the same period of 2024 (41.68 million). It is a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past eight years. Due to low breeding profits in the past two months, farmers' enthusiasm for expanding production has wavered, and this was the first year - on - year decrease in replenishment volume in July [9][10] - The culling volume of laying hens in the first three weeks as of August 7th was 13.71 million, 13.01 million, and 13.38 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, with a decline greater than the seasonal average. As of August 7th, the average culling age was 506 days, one day earlier than last week and two days later than last month [10]
物流运输维持增长态势
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:30
Group 1: Industry Overview - The logistics and transportation industry maintains a growth trend. In the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Exports to ASEAN, the EU, Africa, and Central Asia increased by 9.4%, 3.9%, 17.2%, and 16.3% respectively [1]. - International oil prices dropped significantly compared to the previous day, and egg prices declined [2]. - The PTA operating rate decreased [3]. - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities decreased seasonally and are at a near - three - year low. The box office of popular summer movies increased [3]. Group 2: Industry Credit Spreads - The industry credit spreads of various sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, mining, chemical, and others showed different trends. For example, the industry credit spread of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery decreased from 85.16 last year to 45.21 this week [47]. Group 3: Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various products in different industries showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn was 2324.3 yuan/ton on August 7, a year - on - year decrease of 0.37%; the spot price of WTI crude oil was 64.4 dollars/barrel on August 7, a year - on - year decrease of 8.07% [48].
广发期货日评-20250807
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 07:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].
关注能源、黑色上游价格波动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:17
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on price fluctuations in the energy and black upstream sectors, as well as policy implementation in high - tech and transportation infrastructure industries [1][2]. - It also provides an overview of the current situation in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream of different industries, including price changes,开工率, and sales volume [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: High - temperature and high - humidity weather has led to a continuous increase in the national power consumption level. From August 4th to 6th, the power load in the operating area of the State Grid Corporation reached a record high of 1.233 billion kilowatts, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to last year's peak of 1.18 billion kilowatts. Shanghai has issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry, aiming to achieve more than 20 core algorithm and technology breakthroughs by 2027, with the core industry scale exceeding 50 billion yuan [1]. - **Service Industry**: Three departments including the Ministry of Transport have issued a plan for the new round of rural road improvement, aiming to complete 300,000 kilometers of new and reconstructed rural roads by 2027 [2]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices have dropped significantly recently. Egg prices and glass prices have also declined [3]. - **Mid - stream**: The operating rate of PTA has decreased, while that of pig products has increased slightly [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three - year low. Domestic film box office has increased during the summer vacation [3]. 3.3. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides credit spread data for various industries as of August 7th, showing different trends in each industry's credit spreads compared to the previous year, the first quarter, one month ago, and last week [46]. 3.4. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report presents price data for multiple industries as of August 6th, including agriculture, non - ferrous metals, black metals, non - metals, energy, chemicals, and real estate. Most prices have shown a downward trend, with some exceptions such as coal prices [47].
《农产品》日报-20250807
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from increased production, and Dalian palm oil futures are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. - Crude oil pressure and bearish CBOT soybeans affect vegetable oil prices. Domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to improved demand [1]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are expected to find strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downside space for domestic soybean meal is limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held, but the strength of oils may limit the rise of meal [3]. Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are slightly down but may bottom - out. The short - term outlook is not optimistic, and the 09 contract faces pressure. The 01 contract is affected by policies, and caution is needed regarding hedging funds [6]. Corn Industry - The corn market is weak in the short - term, with prices fluctuating. New - season corn may face supply pressure, and the market valuation may decline [8]. Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are expected to have difficulty breaking previous lows but are generally bearish. The domestic sugar market has weak demand, and a bearish trend is expected [13]. Cotton Industry - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally eased, but the downstream industry is still weak. Consider reducing positions in the 09 contract and holding short positions in far - month contracts [14]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. However, due to large supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy is recommended [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,580 yuan, up 1.18%. The Y2509 futures price is 8,406 yuan, up 0.74%. The basis is 136 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8,900 yuan, down 0.56%. The P2509 futures price is 9,064 yuan, down 1.04%. The basis is - 164 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9,700 yuan, up 0.21%. The O1509 futures price is 9,562 yuan, down 0.55%. The basis is 138 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The M2509 futures price is 3,026 yuan, up 0.10%. The basis is - 106 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,690 yuan, up 1.89%. The RM2509 futures price is 2,745 yuan, up 0.77%. The basis is - 55 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4,118 yuan, up 0.05%. The basis is - 158 yuan, and the inventory is down 0.42% [3]. Pig Industry - Spot prices in various regions have slightly declined. The sample point slaughter volume decreased by 0.51%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 29.46% [6]. Corn Industry - The corn 2509 futures price is 2,259 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis is 61 yuan, down 14.08%. The 9 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, up 18.18% [8]. - The corn starch 2509 futures price is 2,662 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 48 yuan, down 14.29% [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar 2601 futures price is 5,628 yuan, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.31%. The basis in Nanning is 317 yuan, down 4.80% [13]. - National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [13]. Cotton Industry - The cotton 2509 futures price is 13,690 yuan, up 0.26%. The ICE US cotton主力 is 66.92 cents/pound, down 0.36%. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1,393 yuan, down 2.31% [14]. - Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, and imports decreased by 25% [14]. Egg Industry - The egg 09 contract is 3,378 yuan/500KG, up 1.44%. The egg 10 contract is 3,285 yuan/500KG, up 1.01%. The basis is - 371 yuan/500KG, down 24.51% [17]. - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, a 0.52% increase [17].