Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound. In the long - term, with the expansion of downstream production capacity and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation may not be too loose after the seasonal pressure, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically. Attention should be paid to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] - **Sugar**: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills at the beginning of the crushing season have the willingness to support prices. The short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the impact of the capital side on the market should be noted [7] - **Pulp**: Due to the gradual digestion of previous negative factors, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently. However, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side may limit the upward space of pulp prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts on the market [10] Group 3: Summary by Cotton - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,750 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,847 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,009 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Export: In October, Australia's cotton export volume was about 206,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.8% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative export volume was about 549,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. China was the largest export destination, accounting for 32.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA significantly increased the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season, while the consumption only slightly increased, leading to a significant rise in the global ending inventory. The sales pressure of US cotton has increased, and there is a possibility of export target reduction. Short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the long - term, it is in a low - valuation range [2] - Domestic: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. With the approaching end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, the supply is abundant in the short - term, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak, but the improvement of spinning profit limits the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound, and optimistic in the long - term after seasonal pressure. Focus on the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 4: Summary by Sugar - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5337 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5410 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Export: Brazil exported 3.3023 million tons of sugar and molasses in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59% [4] - Sugar mill operation: From December 6th to 8th, 6 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production. As of now, 55 sugar mills have started production in the 2025/26 crushing season in Guangxi, 13 less than the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: The global high - yield pattern suppresses the raw sugar market, but the downward space is limited in the short - term, and there is no sign of reversal in the short - and medium - term [5] - Domestic: Domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high. The control of syrup has become stricter, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term decline is limited, but the impact of the capital side should be noted [7] Group 5: Summary by Pulp - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5392 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the price of Russian needle pulp was 5005 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: There are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdown and maintenance. Domtar permanently closed a paper mill, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill will have a temporary shutdown [9] - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October, showing some improvement in demand. In China, there is over - capacity in the paper industry, low paper mill operating rates, and high port inventories [9] Strategy - Neutral. The upward space of pulp prices may be limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts [10]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Contract details**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3043, the highest price was 3055, the lowest price was 3025, the closing price was 3030, with a decline of 5 and a decline rate of -0.16%. The trading volume was 609,632, the open interest was 840,915, and the open interest change was -78,817. For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3010, the opening price was 3011, the highest price was 3022, the lowest price was 2971, the closing price was 2978, with a decline of 32 and a decline rate of -1.06%. The trading volume was 166,459, the open interest was 553,792, and the open interest change was -8,090. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2828, the opening price was 2821, the highest price was 2826, the lowest price was 2770, the closing price was 2778, with a decline of 50 and a decline rate of -1.77%. The trading volume was 1,089,811, the open interest was 1,890,767, and the open interest change was 107,247 [6] - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract falling below 1100 cents. The main reasons were the US concerns about China's procurement progress. Although there was a large - order purchase of 460,000 tons over the weekend, it was reported that the previous claim of China's full - scale purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans before January might be postponed to February. Meanwhile, February is the season when Brazilian soybeans start to be exported, leading to a negative market sentiment. Additionally, there were no positive factors in the new South American crops. Brazil had basically completed most of its sowing, and above - average rainfall was expected in the central and southern regions in the next two weeks, which was conducive to a high - yield expectation. Argentina was a bit dry, but it was still in the middle - late sowing stage and not yet in the critical weather - growth stage, exerting some downward pressure on the market [7] - **Domestic situation**: Domestic soybean meal followed the weak trend of CBOT soybeans but with a smaller decline. Due to the previously low overall crushing profit and the difficulty of significant cost reduction in the external market while China was still purchasing, the support below the soybean meal price was relatively strong. However, there was still inventory pressure, and additional positive factors such as weather or procurement were needed for the price to rise. The state reserve began to auction imported soybeans, and it was expected that the newly purchased US soybeans would be used for inventory rotation, so the sufficient supply situation would continue [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, the price will be slightly weak but is unlikely to decline significantly. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the USDA's December supply - demand report on the market [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA monthly report forecast**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release the December crop supply - demand report at 1:00 on December 10, Beijing time. Analysts' average forecast shows that the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 302 million bushels, higher than the 290 million bushels estimated in the November 14 report. The global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are expected to be 122.41 million tons, higher than the 121.99 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.857 million tons, higher than the 4.85 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 175.35 million tons, higher than the 175 million tons estimated in the November 14 report. The USDA predicts that farmers will plant 95 million acres of corn in the 2026/27 season, less than the 98.7 million acres in the 2025/26 season. The soybean planting area is expected to increase from 81.1 million acres to 85 million acres. The USDA forecasts that the US 2026/27 corn ending stocks will be 2.019 billion bushels and the soybean ending stocks will be 314 million bushels [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][19][16]

| | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 09 日星期周二 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 8 日，美豆新作种植面积预估增加，对华出口放缓，美豆油下跌带动国内豆油 | | | | | 走弱，澳菜籽开榨在即，菜籽油跌幅进一步加速，棕榈油跟随下下跌。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8032 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 0.59%，日增仓 7193 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7952 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.75%，日增 | | | | | 仓 2803 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8702 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.6 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold futures showed volatility, breaking through $4220/oz on the morning of December 9, with a daily increase of 0.05%. However, on the previous trading day (December 8), gold prices fell below $4210/oz, with a daily decline of 0.79% [1][6] - Spot gold also faced pressure, falling below $4180/oz on the evening of December 8, with a daily drop of 0.39% [2][7] - Silver's main contract experienced a daily decline of 1%, currently priced at 13563.00 yuan [3][8] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - The crude oil market showed weakness, with WTI crude oil falling below $59/barrel on the morning of December 9, marking a daily decrease of 1.84% [4][9] - U.S. natural gas futures prices dropped significantly due to a narrowing forecast of temperature declines and production nearing record highs, with a 6% drop on the evening of December 8, followed by a further decline of over 9% on December 9 morning, currently priced at $3.849/million BTU [4][9] Group 3: Agricultural Futures - Coking coal's main contract price weakened, with a daily drop of 2% on the evening of December 8, currently priced at 1084.50 yuan [5][10]

每经AI快讯，当地时间12月8日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大 豆期货跌1.04%报1093.75美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.17%报444.00美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌0.23%报 534.50美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index experienced a decline of 0.60%, closing at 29.8908 points, despite reaching a daily high of 30.1739 points earlier in the day [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures - CBOT corn futures decreased by 0.17% [1] - CBOT wheat futures fell by 0.23% [1] - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 1.04%, settling at $10.9375 per bushel after hitting a daily high of $11.0725 [1] - Soymeal futures declined by 0.22% [1] - Soy oil futures decreased by 0.99% [1] Group 2: Livestock Futures - CBOT lean hog futures increased by 0.09% [1] - Live cattle futures fell by 0.14% [1] - Feeder cattle futures dropped by 0.94% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend, with hog prices rising sharply and soybean meal prices falling significantly. The hog market is in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the soybean meal market is under pressure from abundant imports and high inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Hog prices have risen sharply as the year - end approaches, with the hog market entering a period of strong supply and demand. The demand for sausage - making in the north and bacon - curing in the south is increasing, and hog futures prices have rebounded strongly from low levels and may continue to strengthen. Soybean meal prices have fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and a rebound in soybean meal inventory to over one million tons, and its futures prices have entered a downward trend [1]. 3.2. Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1. Hogs - Focus: The main contract 2603 of hogs has risen sharply, boosted by improved demand. Supply is abundant in December as large - scale pig enterprises increase their出栏. Demand has increased with the arrival of winter, and the开工 rate of slaughtering enterprises has rebounded. The futures price has broken through the 20 - day moving average and entered an upward trend. The strategy is to close short positions and hold light long positions [2]. 3.2.2. Soybean Meal - Focus: The main contract 2605 of soybean meal has fallen significantly due to abundant imported soybeans and high inventory pressure. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a 13.4% year - on - year increase. The total soybean imports in the first 11 months reached 103.79 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. The inventory has rebounded to about 1.2 million tons. The futures price has broken through the moving average system and entered a downward trend. The strategy is to continue to look for resistance levels to short lightly [3]. 3.2.3. Palm Oil - Focus: The main contract 2605 of Dalian palm oil has oscillated and declined. The market is cautious before the release of the MPOB report, and some long positions have been liquidated. The futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions, conduct short - term trading, and wait for important data to enter trend positions [5]. 3.2.4. Red Dates - Focus: The main contract 2605 of red dates has first risen and then declined, with limited rebound. The peak consumption season is in conflict with high supply and inventory, leading to large price fluctuations. The acquisition progress in the main production areas of Xinjiang is about 90%, and the price of new dates has stabilized. However, the concentrated listing of new dates and high inventory of old dates limit the rebound space. The strategy is short - term trading [8]. 3.2.5. Apples - Focus: The main contract 2605 of apples has oscillated and declined from a high position. The inventory in production areas is relatively low, but the market trading speed is slow, and the sales volume is average. Citrus competing fruits also impact apple consumption. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [9][11]. 3.2.6. Eggs - Focus: The main contract 2601 of eggs has rebounded from a low position as the market anticipates improved demand at the end of the year. The egg - laying hen inventory is still high, but the market expects better demand. The latest data shows a decline in the number of old hens sold. The futures price has rebounded and oscillated, standing above the 5 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [12]. 3.2.7. Sugar - Focus: The main contract 2601 of Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded from a low position due to technical correction and short - covering. However, the supply pressure of new sugar is still large as the sugar - cane crushing progress in Guangxi and Yunnan continues, with 50 sugar mills in operation. The futures price is still below the moving averages, and the downward trend has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions [14]. 3.2.8. Cotton - Focus: The main contract 2601 of cotton has oscillated and closed up, with high - level operation. The sales rate of Xinjiang cotton is high, and the demand has significantly increased. The textile enterprises in Xinjiang have a high operating rate, and the orders are sufficient. The transportation cost of cotton has increased. The market confidence of the textile industry has been boosted. The futures price has recovered the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to hold long positions [17]. 3.2.9. Peanuts - Focus: The main contract 2603 of peanuts has fallen significantly, with a weakening trend. The supply in various production areas is limited, and the demand is also weak. Food factories have only rigid demand, and the trading activity in the domestic market is low. Oil mills have a low operating rate, strictly control quality, and continue to lower purchase prices. The futures price has fallen below the 10 - day moving average, and the strategy is to short lightly [18][20].

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 | 花生日报 | | --- | 第一部分 数据 | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7972 | -50 | -0.63% | 65,180 | 75.14% | 26,967 | 1.06% | | PK510 | | 8186 | -24 | -0.29% | 74 | 80.49% | 733 | -0.14% | | PK601 | | 8056 | -12 | -0.15% | 32,547 | 7.34% | 64,428 | -12.62% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2261 | -34 | -1.50% | 914,137 | 13.64% | 848,965 | -8.56% | | C2605 | | 2265 | -21 | -0.93% | 163,794 | 7.61% | 429,267 | 2.48% | | C2509 | | 2274 | -16 | -0.70% | 11,319 | -32.07% | 33,117 | -0.51% | | CS2601 | | 2549 | -39 | -1.53% | 153,327 | 28.71% | 217,169 | -5.09% | | C ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillation", and the trading strategy is "unilateral: oscillation; arbitrage: M3 - M5 positive spread" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the influencing factors of the粕类 market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It believes that the market will be in an oscillatory state. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, the demand side shows different trends for豆粕 and菜粕, and the inventory situation is complex. The investment view is oscillatory, and the trading strategy is unilateral oscillation and M3 - M5 positive spread arbitrage [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). Future US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the producing areas from August to September. CONAB predicts that Brazil's new - crop soybean production in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 29, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 86%. As of November 26, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress reached 36%. In the next two weeks, the precipitation in Brazil's producing areas is expected to improve, and the dry weather in Argentina is conducive to sowing. From December to January, domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are expected to seasonally decline, and there is uncertainty in domestic豆粕 supply in the first quarter of next year. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported菜粕 and rapeseed in China is expected to decline, and the 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase [5] - **Demand**: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply.豆粕 has relatively high cost - performance. Recently, the downstream trading of豆粕 is normal, and the delivery performance is good, while the downstream trading and delivery of菜粕 are cautious [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, the inventory reduction of豆粕 is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January. This week, the inventory days of feed enterprises'豆粕 increased slightly. Domestic菜粕 inventory is continuously decreasing [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [5] - **Profit**: The domestic new - crop soybean purchase and crushing profit is good, and the Canadian rapeseed crushing profit is also good [5] - **Valuation**: From the perspective of basis, the recent price of豆粕 futures is at a neutral - to - high valuation position [5] - **Macro and Policy**: China and the US have reached a soybean purchase agreement, and China has started to purchase US soybeans, but the quantity and time of purchases are uncertain, which provides support for the US market. The domestic market is expected to be in short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather in South America. If there are no obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from December to January under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil, and M05 is expected to be weak. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release [5] PART TWO:粕类 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In November, the 25/26 US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio and the global soybean stock - to - consumption ratio decreased. The global rapeseed stock - to - consumption ratio also decreased [33][39] - **US Soybean**: The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume have certain trends, and the US soybean export sales progress is slow [50][57][61] - **Brazilian Soybean**: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is presented, and the CNF premium of soybeans and the import soybean futures margin are shown [68][70] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed are provided [72] - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of feed enterprises has increased slightly. The import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and菜粕 in different months is presented, and the inventory of imported rapeseed and domestic主要地区菜粕 inventory are shown. The开机率 and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills, the trading and delivery of豆粕 and菜粕, the feed monthly output, the breeding profit of livestock and poultry, and the price and weight of pigs are also included [78][96][110]