证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（1117-1121） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年11月22日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年11月21日 目录 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 4 16.77 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-0 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a broad decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3850 points, while market volume saw a slight increase [2][5] - The performance of various sectors showed that home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking sectors performed relatively well, while metal materials and mining, power and new energy equipment, and electronics sectors led the decline [2][5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.02%, the SSE 50 Index declined by 1.74%, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.44%, the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index dropped by 3.72%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.98 trillion yuan [2][8] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors included home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking, while the lagging sectors were metal materials and mining (-5.11%), power and new energy equipment (-4.78%), and electronics (-4.66%) [8] - Concept stocks such as China Shipbuilding System (+3.51%), aquatic products (+0.65%), Xiaohongshu platform (+0.47%), and Pinduoduo partners (+0.42%) showed gains, while lithium mining and related concepts faced declines [8] Market Drivers - Key market drivers included the unexpected rise in U.S. unemployment rates despite job growth, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8] - Concerns about high asset prices and AI bubble risks contributed to a decline in U.S. stocks, which in turn affected market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [8] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - The report suggests a short-term market correction may occur due to rapid price increases, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of a "slow bull" market trend [14] - In the medium term, the market's strength may depend on macroeconomic policies and technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, which are seen as key areas for creating new demand [15] - Long-term fundamentals, including stabilization in the real estate market and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, are expected to support continued growth in the A-share market [15]

本周受美联储年内降息预期减弱影响，全球股市明显下跌，A 股亦未能"独善其身"。 展望后市，考虑权重指数本周才"刚刚"跌破趋势线，且全球资本市场波动尚未平息， 我们认为短期仍有惯性调整、逐步收敛的需要。需要指出的是，随着四季度市场风格 的"再平衡"，部分宽基指数的回调已较充分，在当前位置再无必要盲目止损。从更长 周期看，我们认为系统性"慢"牛仍未结束，并有望在调整后进入"二阶段"。配置方面， 基于"短期调整仍需时日，部分指数趋于到位，拉长周期慢牛仍在"的判断，我们建议： 择时方面，切勿盲目跟风杀跌，持仓静待调整结束，以目前回调至年线上方且具有爆 发力的券商板块作为"信号弹"，待券商启动时再度进行增配操作；行业配置和个股方 面应区分处理，对于近期刚刚破位的高位标的不宜恋战，但对于相对低位板块（如券 商、消费、地产、中字头基建等）和年线上方的低位滞涨个股则予以保留。 本周（2025-11-17 至 2025-11-21）行情概况 （1）主要指数：受海外股市波动影响，A 股主要宽基指数下跌。（2）板块观察： 主要行业系统回调，银行食饮相对抗跌。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比下降，主 要股指期货合约贴水。（4）资金流向： ...

Core Insights - China has maintained its position as the world's second-largest importer for 16 consecutive years, driven by a population of over 1.4 billion and more than 400 million middle-income individuals, resulting in an annual import volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan [1][8]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Scale - China is the world's largest goods trader, holding this position for eight consecutive years and serving as a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions [2]. - The service trade scale is projected to exceed 1 trillion USD for the first time in 2024, ranking second globally [3]. - China's cross-border e-commerce is the largest in the world, with total import and export volume expected to reach 2.71 trillion yuan in 2024 [4]. - By the end of 2024, China is expected to attract over 100 billion USD in foreign investment for 15 consecutive years, maintaining its status as the largest recipient of foreign investment among developing economies [5]. Group 2: Market Openness and Connectivity - The national negative list for foreign investment has been reduced to 29 items, with the manufacturing sector achieving a complete clearance [6]. - Shenzhen is emerging as an "international hub," enhancing its connectivity with the world through busy ports and efficient logistics, with significant growth in international shipping routes [7]. - In the first ten months, Shenzhen's import of mechanical and electrical products reached 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5%, while agricultural product imports grew by 10% to 82.26 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Tourism and Consumer Trends - The recent implementation of a 240-hour visa-free transit policy at several ports in Guangdong has significantly increased foreign tourist arrivals, with over 1.2 million foreign travelers processed this year, marking a 100% increase in visa-free entries [9]. - The integration of "China travel" and "China shopping" has become a popular topic on social media, with foreign tourists increasingly purchasing Chinese electronic products [9]. Group 4: Expert Insights on Market Potential - Experts emphasize that China's import demand accounts for 10.5% of global demand, providing opportunities for countries to leverage their advantages in participating in China's economic development [10]. - The expansion of green trade, particularly in new energy vehicles and solar products, has significantly reduced global costs for wind and solar power generation, enhancing the world's capacity to address climate change [10]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests actively expanding autonomous openness and aligning with international high-standard trade rules, with institutional openness being a key focus [10].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective decline on November 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.45% to close at 3835 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index falling by 4.02% [1] - Market turnover significantly increased, with a total trading volume of 1.97 trillion yuan, up approximately 257.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as media, home appliances, food and beverage, banking, and agriculture showed relatively smaller declines, while cyclical and technology sectors like non-ferrous metals, power equipment, basic chemicals, and electronics faced deeper adjustments [1] - The banking sector rebounded during the session, providing stability to the market, and dividend assets demonstrated defensive characteristics amid rising risk aversion [1] Influencing Factors - External liquidity concerns intensified as Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding a potential rate cut in December, leading to a rapid cooling of expectations for such a move and putting pressure on technology stocks sensitive to liquidity [1] - Divergence in market logic regarding the AI industry emerged, with investors worried about the sustainability of capital expenditures and eventual returns from U.S. AI giants, despite strong earnings from leading AI companies [1] - Event-driven factors, including stock index futures settlement and geopolitical tensions, amplified market volatility [2] Future Outlook - Morgan Asset Management views the current adjustment as a result of both internal and external factors, suggesting that the external factors acted as a trigger rather than the main issue for the A-share market [2] - The market has largely priced in the liquidity shock, with an 89% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December, indicating that the negative sentiment around "no rate cut" has been largely absorbed [2] - A-shares are expected to maintain an independent logic, with no excessive capital expenditure issues similar to the U.S. AI sector, and the fundamentals of technological innovation and self-sufficiency remain solid [2] - Investment opportunities may arise in the following areas: undervalued quality companies in the technology sector, industries with policy support and improving fundamentals (such as photovoltaics and chemicals), and defensive dividend assets like banking and coal [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities highlights increased market volatility and suggests focusing on oversold sectors as potential investment opportunities due to recent emotional trading and market adjustments [1][2]. Market Conditions - The recent volatility in the domestic stock market is attributed to the "transitional" narrative in technology and cyclical sectors, alongside tightening liquidity conditions [2]. - Major global tech stocks have seen significant declines, with Tesla, Amazon, Nvidia, and Meta dropping between 9.1% and 13.3% since late October [2]. - The market is currently in a phase lacking catalysts and clear trading narratives, with key economic indicators showing a slowdown [2]. Liquidity Environment - Recent liquidity conditions have tightened, with A-share daily trading volume falling below 2 trillion yuan, and turnover rates decreasing [3]. - Southbound capital inflows have slowed, with average daily net inflows dropping from 8.41 billion HKD in September to approximately 5.75 billion HKD [3]. - The potential for increased supply pressure is noted, with a significant rise in the amount of shares set to be unlocked in December [3]. Market Adjustments and Opportunities - The current market adjustment is seen as a potential buying opportunity, as the fundamentals remain stable despite recent volatility [5]. - The report suggests that both A-share and Hong Kong-listed companies may be nearing a profit confirmation point, providing a fundamental support for investments [5]. - The sentiment indicator for Hong Kong stocks is currently in a pessimistic range, indicating a balanced risk profile and potential buy signals as it approaches lower thresholds [7]. Sector Focus for Investment - The report recommends focusing on sectors that have underperformed this year, such as consumer services, construction, textiles, and home appliances [9]. - It also highlights sectors that have seen limited gains but significant recent declines, such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and light manufacturing, as having a higher chance of being oversold [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of safety margins in investment decisions, suggesting a focus on sectors with improving fundamentals and high dividend yields, including coal, chemicals, and steel [8][9].

Economic Overview - The province's economy has maintained overall stability and progress, with a focus on releasing domestic demand potential, strengthening industrial support, promoting service industry development, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for the first ten months increased by 7.7%, with 36 out of 41 industries experiencing growth, resulting in a growth rate of 87.8% [1] - Key industries such as automotive, electronics, and railway shipbuilding saw significant increases in added value, with growth rates of 17.8%, 14.7%, and 14.3% respectively [1][2] - The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry grew by 11.9%, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate by 4.2 percentage points [2] Service Sector Development - The revenue of the service industry increased by 5.1% in the first three quarters, with nine out of ten major sectors showing growth [1][2] - Notable growth was observed in leasing and business services, water and environmental management, and cultural and entertainment services, with revenue growth rates of 16.0%, 10.7%, and 10.5% respectively [1] Consumer Market Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.4%, with retail sales above a certain threshold increasing by 6.2% [2] - Online retail sales through public networks reached 195.9 billion yuan, growing by 16.9%, which is 10.7 percentage points higher than the overall retail sales growth [2] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment saw a structural optimization with a growth rate of 6.0%, supported by strong industrial investment [2] - Significant increases in investment were noted in the metal products industry (19.8%), general equipment manufacturing (28.3%), and automotive manufacturing (33.2%) [2] Foreign Trade Performance - The total import and export volume reached 2.88778 trillion yuan, growing by 4.7%, with exports increasing by 4.0% and imports by 5.7% [2] - Trade with countries involved in the "Belt and Road" initiative amounted to 1.85 trillion yuan, marking an 8.4% increase and accounting for 64.2% of the province's total trade [2] Private Sector Dynamics - The added value of private industrial enterprises grew by 9.3%, exceeding the overall industrial growth rate by 1.6 percentage points [3] - Retail sales from private commercial units increased by 7.4%, outpacing the overall retail sales growth by 1.2 percentage points [3] - Private enterprises accounted for 75.8% of the province's total import and export volume, amounting to 2.19 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.4% [3] Social Welfare Investments - Investments in the social welfare sector increased significantly, with production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water growing by 21.6%, and investments in residential services and repairs rising by 13.2% [3]

近期A股市场存量资金博弈特征愈发明显，板块轮动节奏加快。近一个月，券商密集调整个股评级，超 50只个股获上调评级，食品饮料行业的标的最多；同时，超90只个股被下调评级，涉及汽车、化工等多 个行业。 食品饮料行业方面，招商证券11月3日发布研报表示，巴比食品第三季度收入增长提速，店效延续改 善，将个股评级由增持上调至强烈推荐；西麦食品、妙可蓝多、东鹏饮料个股评级均由增持上调至买 入；青岛啤酒、千味央厨个股评级均由持有上调至增持；甘源食品个股评级由中性上调至优于大市。 受益于终端需求逐步回暖，电子行业有望迎来估值修复与成长契机。在电子行业中，晶晨股份、中微公 司、源杰科技、水晶光电、绿联科技个股评级均由增持上调至买入。 对于2026年电子行业投资策略，中原证券表示，展望2026年，AI算力需求持续景气，云侧AI算力硬件 基础设施仍处于高速成长中，AI眼镜、具身智能、智能驾驶等端侧AI创新百花齐放；AI推动半导体周 期继续上行，存储器或迎来超级周期，半导体自主可控有望加速推进。 超90只个股被下调评级 近一个月，券商还下调92只个股评级，涵盖25个行业。其中，汽车、食品饮料、基础化工行业被下调评 级的个股数量居前， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a notable shift towards stock selection and sector rotation, with over 50 stocks upgraded and more than 90 downgraded in ratings, indicating a more cautious market sentiment and a focus on structural opportunities in technology, consumption, and dividend sectors [1][2][3]. Stock Rating Adjustments - Over the past month, 52 stocks have been upgraded, with the food and beverage sector having the highest number of upgrades at 7 stocks, followed by electronics and power equipment with 5 each, and pharmaceuticals and light industry with 4 each [1]. - Conversely, 92 stocks have been downgraded across 25 industries, with the automotive sector leading with 12 downgrades, followed by food and beverage with 10, and basic chemicals with 9 [2][3]. Sector Analysis - In the food and beverage sector, several companies such as Baba Foods and Ximai Foods have seen their ratings upgraded due to improved revenue growth and store efficiency [2]. - The electronics sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in terminal demand, with companies like Crystal Technology and Green Link Technology receiving upgrades [2]. - The automotive sector has faced downgrades due to short-term performance pressures, with companies like Meihu and New Spring seeing their ratings lowered [3]. Market Trends and Strategies - Analysts suggest that the market is moving towards a balanced style, with a preference for large-cap stocks and a potential shift towards value stocks [4]. - The focus on growth stocks remains, but the key is whether the underlying valuation logic changes, which could drive future performance [4]. - Investment opportunities are seen in themes such as anti-involution and dividend stocks, with a particular emphasis on technology sectors that align with national strategies and possess real technological barriers [5].

港股多个指数成份股进行调整。 11月21日，恒生指数公司宣布截至2025年9月30日的恒生指数系列季度检讨结果，相关变动将于2025年12月5日（星期五）收市后实施，并于2025年12月8日（星期 一）起生效。 根据相关调整，恒生指数成份股数目将进一步增加，由88只增加至89只。 港股市场多个指数调整成份股 11月21日，恒生指数公司宣布截至2025年9月30日的恒生指数系列季度检讨结果，恒生指数成份股数目将由88只增加至89只，加入信达生物。 | 代号 | 公司 | 恒指分类指数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1801 | 信达生物制药 | 恒生工商业分类指数 | 恒生中国企业指数成份股数目维持50只，加入中国宏桥、信达生物、百胜中国3只股票，同时剔除新奥能源、海底捞、新东方-S。恒生中国企业指数成份股公司的变 动亦适用于恒生中国企业精明指数。 | · · · HE | | | --- | --- | | 代号 | 公司 | | 9863 | 浙江零跑科技股份有限公司 - H 股 | | 代号 | 公司 | | --- | --- | | 1378 | 中国宏桥集团有限公司 | | 180 ...