Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent rebound in technology sectors, particularly in military, pharmaceutical, and TMT industries, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF (589630) rising nearly 1.5% [1] - The A-share merger and acquisition market has been active this year, with significant participation from Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies, especially in sectors like biomedicine, semiconductors, and new-generation information technology [1] - Data indicates that out of 86 major restructuring events in 2025, 18 involved Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies, showing a significant increase compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities emphasizes the importance of self-reliance in technology, focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, autonomous control, new energy technology, aerospace information technology, and data elements [1] - In aerospace information technology, areas like low-altitude economy, satellites, and commercial space are highlighted as key focus points [1] - The report suggests that the AI sector should concentrate on AI agents, AI applications (like standalone software and smart terminals), humanoid robots, and autonomous driving [1] Group 3 - Western Securities notes that the level of merger and acquisition activity reflects the direction of the industrial cycle, with the highest number of mergers occurring in the automotive, electronics, and machinery sectors in 2024 [2] - The report indicates that the trends in automotive intelligence, semiconductor self-control, and high-end manufacturing are accelerating technological upgrades and industry evolution [2] - It is suggested that if AI commercialization leads to performance improvements through mergers and acquisitions, it could create a mainline market trend; otherwise, it may only represent a short-term thematic opportunity [2] Group 4 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF from Guotai (code: 589630) tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Index (code: 000680), which includes representative stocks from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with an average market capitalization of approximately 11 billion [2] - The index focuses on technology innovation companies, covering more early-stage innovative firms and emphasizing hard technology sectors [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider Guotai's linked ETFs for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Comprehensive ETF [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has improved following a phone call between the leaders of China and the United States, with expectations for further discussions and outcomes from upcoming meetings [1] Market Performance - The stock markets experienced a rebound this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing all moving average resistances and approaching the mid-May high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index also rebounded but remains under pressure from the 60-day moving average [1] - Average daily trading volume in both markets increased to approximately 11.8 billion, a significant rise compared to the previous week [1] Sector Focus - Market hotspots this week were primarily in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector and upstream non-ferrous metals industry [1] - The investment style leaned towards technology and small-cap stocks, which led the gains [1] Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index is attempting to challenge the mid-May high after a period of downward adjustment [1] - The index had shown a pattern of simultaneous lower highs and lows but found support at the 60-day moving average, leading to a new wave of rebound [1] - There are still strong technical resistances near last year's fourth-quarter trading volume concentration and this year's first-quarter market peak, warranting ongoing observation [1]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the recent investment style is characterized by three main features: new, small, and fast. The strongest industry trends since September last year are AI and new consumption, which align with new industrial logic [2][6][7] - The first feature, "new," highlights that the strongest industries during 2013-2015 were TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) driven by the growth of mobile internet, similar to the current AI trend. New consumption sectors such as dining, tourism, light industry, and textiles outperformed traditional sectors like food and home appliances [3][6][7] - The second feature, "small," notes that small-cap stocks are currently active, especially during market fluctuations, mirroring the performance of small-cap stocks during 2013-2015 [11][15] - The third feature, "fast," refers to the rapid rotation of market trends, with AI and robotics showing strong excess returns in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but weaker performance recently. This mirrors the volatility seen in TMT during 2013-2015 [12][15] Group 2 - The report identifies the underlying reasons for the current investment style as a weak economy with a strong market, a decline in old funds (active public funds), and a rise in new funds (financing balance, speculative quantitative funds). Additionally, continuous policy support is noted, with a slow IPO pace [15][19] - The report suggests that despite a weak economic backdrop, there are structural opportunities in the stock market, similar to the conditions observed during 2013-2015 when economic growth was also weak [15][19] - The report anticipates that the market may experience a slight pullback from late May to July, with pressures including slow economic recovery and reduced trading enthusiasm among retail investors. However, a return to a bullish market is possible in Q3 if any of the factors related to earnings, policy, or retail funds turn optimistic [21][23]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant expansion in valuations for small-cap growth and TMT sectors, with overall market trends showing a mild upward trajectory [2][9]. Global Market Overview - The global equity markets experienced an overall increase, with the Korean market leading, as the KOSPI50 index rose by 5.04% and the Korean Composite Index by 4.24%. Major US indices increased by 1%-2%, while Hong Kong markets rebounded with approximately 2% gains. Japan's market, however, saw a decline [2][9]. - Valuation-wise, the global equity market showed a mild expansion, with the German DAX index experiencing the largest PE expansion of 1.35x, maintaining a valuation percentile above 99% [2][9]. A-Share Market Analysis - A-shares showed a mild expansion in core broad-based valuations, with the National Securities 2000 and CSI 1000 indices rising by 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively, and experiencing the largest PE expansions of 1.08x and 0.79x [2][26]. - The small-cap growth sector demonstrated strong valuation expansion, with the CSI 2000 index showing a significant PE expansion of 2.96x [2][26]. Industry Performance - The report highlights that most primary industries experienced gains, with the TMT sector showing notable performance. The communication, electronics, and computer industries rose by 5.27%, 3.6%, and 2.79%, respectively. Additionally, upstream resources like non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals also saw significant increases of 3.74% and 2.61% [2][48]. - The overall PE for primary industries showed a mild expansion, with the computer and electronics sectors leading with expansions of 2.18x and 1.76x, respectively [2][48]. Valuation Comparisons - The report notes a clear differentiation in valuation attractiveness across sectors, particularly within the essential consumer sector. The financial sector, represented by banks, is at historically high valuation levels, while TMT sectors are at mid-to-long-term high valuations [2][48]. - Emerging industries, particularly in the digital economy, showed strong performance, with IDC, 5G, and cloud computing sectors rising by 6.41%, 4.98%, and 3.93%, respectively [2][48].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250608 并购重组驶入"快车道"助力科技企业估值 提升 [Table_Summary] ◼ 政策红利密集释放 在资本市场加速发展的浪潮中，并购重组作为产业沿链补链的关键，直 接关乎创新产业发展机遇的把握和产业升级的进程。政策推进的节奏是 并购重组市场的关键驱动力。在此背景下，为了鼓励和活跃资本市场， 助力上市公司实现高质量发展，监管机构推出了一系列直击并购市场难 点痛点的举措，精准发力优化并购重组环境。 ◼ 本轮并购重组最新进展 ◼ 本轮并购重组成效和特点 央国企主导整合浪潮：本轮并购重组政策除了监管层面在积极推动，从 中央到地方的产业政策中也频频提及"国有企业"。从中央层面为国有 企业松绑，拓宽国有企业创新投资和并购重组的路径，是培育"耐心资 本"的必要手段。2025 年已完成的并购项目中，国有企业数量占比 50%， 金额占比 68%。国央企合并有望促进国有资本进一步向符合国家战略 的重点行业、关键领域和优势企业集中，推动国央企的产业结构调整升 级，优化国有资本的布局与资源配置，实现资源向维系国家安全、掌握 国民经济命脉和关乎国计民生的重要行业和关 ...

Market Overview - The Wande All A index closed at 5156.21 on June 6, 2025, up 1.61% from May 30, 2025, while the China Convertible Bond index rose by 1.08% during the same period[1] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Wande All A index has increased by 2.68%, and the China Convertible Bond index has risen by 4.67%[1] U.S.-China Relations - The recent U.S.-China summit led to a positive market response, with expectations of easing trade tensions, although the U.S. raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%[2][34] - Non-farm payrolls data showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, leading to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations for the year[35] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a rotation strategy, focusing on technology opportunities, as the technology sector shows low crowding and potential for upward movement[3][40] - The TMT sector's crowding index rose from 8.7% at the end of May to 27.5%, indicating increased interest in technology stocks[43] Convertible Bonds - Convertible bond valuations have improved across various price levels, with the valuation center for 80 yuan parity rising by 0.81 percentage points to 47.28%[27] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring stock performance and credit events for potential investment opportunities in convertible bonds[55] Risks - The report highlights risks associated with accelerated style rotation in equity markets and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules[5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference may continue to rise after the positive signal from the Sino-US presidential call, and the stock index has a clear upward trend in shock, but short - term upward breakthrough needs further accumulation of capital and policy benefits [1]. - The central bank's intention to protect liquidity is clear, the short - end expectation of bonds has improved, but the long - end is weak, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend; silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio [4]. - Copper price is affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, and is in an interval shock [4]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory [4]. - Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. - Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - Metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock, and some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. - Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. - Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The A - share market has been strengthening this week, with trading volume increasing. The stock index is in a shock - upward trend, but short - term breakthrough needs more favorable factors [1]. Treasury Bond - The performance of treasury bonds was differentiated yesterday, with the long - end weak and the short - end strong. The central bank's operation affects market expectations, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend. Silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio, and one can hold short - position out - of - the - money put options [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, copper price is in an interval shock [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory. Aluminum has supply constraints but demand uncertainty [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium**: Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - **Metal Silicon**: The metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - **PTA**: PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. Black Building Materials - **Steel and Ore**: The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock. Some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - **Coal and Coke**: Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - **Rubber**: Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13].

Market Overview - The market experienced a complex morning with the three major indices peaking at 3391 points before retreating, while Hong Kong stocks slightly corrected and A-shares lacked upward momentum [1] - Trading volume exceeded 30 billion, with nearly 3000 stocks declining, indicating mixed market sentiment with some investors reducing positions and others increasing [1] Trading Dynamics - The market showed significant volume from the opening until 11:30 AM, suggesting that some investors were exiting positions after three consecutive days of gains [3] - Key sectors like liquor and banking saw upward movement followed by pullbacks, while the securities sector failed to maintain its upward trend, making it difficult for the overall index to gain traction [3] Conditions for Market Recovery - For the market to return to 3400 points, two conditions must be met: a noticeable inflow of northbound capital and significant gains in sectors like liquor and securities, which are currently not in place [5] - The absence of a clear main trading theme and the recent cooling off of the TMT sector indicate a lack of strong market drivers, although the absence of any stocks hitting the daily limit down suggests a stable market sentiment [5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards with fluctuations, and individual trading strategies may vary, emphasizing the importance of position management [7] - Despite nearly 3000 stocks declining, the overall index did not drop significantly, indicating potential for future market movements as the market adjusts [7]

Core Insights - The report explores the construction and application of a style factor system for A-shares, focusing on four dimensions: market capitalization, valuation, profitability, and momentum [2][9][12] - A-shares have exhibited different dominant factors over various periods, with profitability leading from 2013 to 2014, small-cap factors from 2015 to 2016, valuation from 2016 to 2018, and a return to profitability dominance from 2019 to early 2021 [2][24][27] - The report predicts a resurgence of high valuation factors starting in 2025, driven by expectations of weak profit recovery and strong policy support [2][27] Style Factor Construction and Performance - The style factor system is constructed using a bottom-up approach, assigning style labels to each stock based on their factor indicators [9][12] - The performance of the style factors shows that small-cap stocks have generally outperformed large-cap stocks since 2010, with a notable fivefold return from small-cap strategies [12][17] - Valuation factors indicate that low valuation styles have been particularly strong, especially during specific periods such as 2017-2018 and 2022-2024 [14][15] Influencing Factors of Style Factors - Profitability factors are highly correlated with economic cycles, showing better performance during economic upturns [45][46] - Valuation factors are closely linked to market sentiment, with high valuation stocks performing better during periods of positive sentiment [49][50] - Market capitalization factors are significantly influenced by remaining liquidity, with small-cap factors performing strongly in liquidity-rich environments [53][54] Application of Style Factor System - The report establishes an A-share style investment system based on the identified style factors, suggesting that the current dominant styles are high profitability, high valuation, and small-cap [2][27] - The analysis indicates that the A-share market has not fully priced in the expected profit recovery, suggesting potential upside for high profitability and high valuation factors [2][27] - Different asset types exhibit varying dominant style factors, with emerging growth assets showing significant small-cap advantages and dividend assets reflecting low valuation strengths [29][33]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a collective rise on June 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.23% to 3,384.10 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.50% to 10,203.50 points, and the ChiNext Index up 1.17% to 2,048.62 points, indicating a structural market where capital is actively competing [1] - The technology sector, particularly the computing power hardware, emerged as a core driver of the market, with stocks like Qingyun Technology hitting the daily limit and others like Shengyi Electronics and Dekeli seeing gains over 15% [2] - The military and industrial sectors experienced a surge, driven by the restructuring concept of the "Zhongbing System," with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, highlighting these sectors as key areas for short-term capital allocation [2] Group 2 - Policy incentives are a primary catalyst for market momentum, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology releasing the "Computing Power Interconnection Action Plan" on May 30, aiming to accelerate the integration of public computing resources [4] - Continuous breakthroughs in the industry are boosting market confidence, exemplified by Nvidia's Q1 earnings report, which reaffirmed the high demand for computing power, and significant advancements in domestic technology, such as Huawei's training of a large-scale model [4] - The focus of capital allocation is shifting towards technology, with margin financing exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in tech stocks, while new funds are being launched to inject additional capital into the market [5]