Group 1 - The U.S. government has lifted restrictive licensing requirements for ethane exports to China, signaling a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions [1][3] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has notified companies like Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer that they can load ethane onto ships bound for China without additional authorization for unloading [3] - Approximately half of U.S. ethane exports are sent to China, and the halt in exports would negatively impact businesses in both countries [3] Group 2 - At least eight ships are currently en route to China after being delayed due to previous restrictions [3] - The lifting of restrictions allows for direct unloading of ethane in China without seeking separate approval from the U.S. government [3] - The recent developments indicate progress in U.S.-China trade relations, although a comprehensive trade agreement remains a long-term goal [4]

早间评论 西南期货研究所 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 | 4 | 国债： | | --- | --- | | 4 | 股指： | | 贵金属： 5 | | | 螺纹、热卷： 6 | | | 铁矿石： 6 | | | 焦煤焦炭： 7 | | | 铁合金： 7 | | | 8 | 原油： | | 燃料油： 9 | | | 合成橡胶： 9 | | | 天然橡胶： 10 | | | 10 | PVC： | | 11 | 尿素： | | 11 | 对二甲苯 PX： | | 11 | PTA： | | 乙二醇： 12 | | | 12 | 短纤： | | 13 | 瓶片： | | 13 | 纯碱： | | 14 | 玻璃： | | 14 | 烧碱： | | 15 | 纸浆： | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | | 铜： | 16 | | --- | --- | | 锡： | 17 | | 镍： | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 ADP 就业不及预期，美越或将达成贸易 协议 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-03 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） ADP 就业不及预期 最新的 ADP 就业远不及预期，但是市场对此反应较为平淡，美 元指数短期反弹。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 合 今年 8000 亿"两重"项目清单全部下达完毕 晨 报 "反内卷"和海洋经济板块出现明显上涨，而军工股则有所回 落。股指成交缩量窄幅震荡。对于"反内卷"需要注意其更多 指向中下游行业以及部分新兴行业而非简单地上游行业。 黑色金属（动力煤） 7 月 2 日北港市场动力煤报价暂稳 高温持续下，电厂日耗维持季节性高位，短期煤价有所企稳。7 月初，前期安监环保影响陆续环节。内蒙产区已经陆续放开。 整体煤价预计在夏季维持稳定。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 印度：6 月份棕榈油进口量增加 61%至 95.3 万吨 印度 6 月棕榈油进口大幅增长，参议院禁止北美以外燃料申请 45Z 税收抵免。 特朗普称美越达成贸易协议 小非农意外爆冷，但三大股指表现维持强势，市场继续等待周 四晚公布的非农数据。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 有色金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hangzhou High-tech Materials Technology Co., Ltd. is undergoing a change in control, with Beijing Juyuan Weiye Energy Technology Co., Ltd. becoming the new controlling shareholder, which may lead to new business synergies for the company [1][2] Group 1: Control Change Announcement - The company announced on June 30, 2025, that its controlling shareholder, Zhejiang Donghang Holding Group Co., Ltd., is planning to transfer 19.03% of the company's total shares to Juyuan Weiye, resulting in a change of control [1][2] - The stock will resume trading on July 2, 2025, after a temporary suspension to ensure fair information disclosure and protect investor interests [1][3] Group 2: Transaction Details - A memorandum was signed between Donghang Group and Juyuan Weiye, with the total valuation of the company set at 2.6 billion yuan, leading to the transfer of 24,105,872 shares [2] - Donghang Group commits not to seek control of the company post-transaction and guarantees that the existing business will achieve positive net profits during the performance commitment period from 2025 to 2027, with combined revenue not less than 300 million yuan [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 83.908 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.75%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.8043 million yuan, showing a year-on-year improvement of 55.73% [3] - The company's gross margin increased by 21.03% year-on-year, and the net profit margin improved by 59.77% year-on-year [3] Group 4: Juyuan Weiye Overview - Juyuan Weiye, established on January 23, 2017, is controlled by Lin Rongsheng and focuses on green clean energy supply, with a business presence in the northwest and a national layout [3] - The company has developed a comprehensive LNG industry structure, with an annual liquefied natural gas production capacity of 3 million tons and a logistics capacity exceeding 1 million tons [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hangzhou Gaoxin will have a new controlling shareholder, Beijing Juyuan Weiye Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with Lin Rongsheng becoming the actual controller of the company [2][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction involves Juyuan Weiye acquiring 19.03% of Hangzhou Gaoxin's shares from its current controlling shareholder, Zhejiang Donghang Holding Group Co., Ltd., at a total company valuation of 2.6 billion yuan [3][5]. - The share price for the acquisition is based on Hangzhou Gaoxin's current stock price of 13.48 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 1.7 billion yuan [2][7]. - Donghang Group has committed not to seek control of the company post-transaction and has made performance guarantees for the existing business, ensuring net profits remain positive and consolidated revenue does not fall below 300 million yuan during the performance commitment period from 2025 to 2027 [5]. Group 2: Company Background - Hangzhou Gaoxin, established in 2004, specializes in the research, production, and sales of polymer materials for cables, serving various sectors including 5G, military, marine engineering, electricity, new energy, and rail transportation [7]. - The company has experienced multiple ownership changes in its history, with the latest being the transition from Donghang Group to Juyuan Weiye [7]. - Recent financial performance has been challenging, with revenues of 368 million yuan, 389 million yuan, and 384 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, and net profits showing fluctuations, including a loss of 21.65 million yuan in 2022 and a profit of 23.64 million yuan in 2023 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system is a critical task for the current era, with a focus on green low-carbon and technological innovation in the energy and chemical industry [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Transition and Policy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for building a new energy system in China, which is the world's largest energy producer and consumer [1]. - By 2060, the proportion of non-fossil energy in China's energy structure is expected to increase from below 20% to over 80%, necessitating a gradual reduction in fossil energy, particularly coal [1][3]. Group 2: Role of Traditional Energy - Traditional fossil energy will continue to play a major role for a considerable time, with clean energy scale-up being essential for cultivating new productive forces in the industry [2]. - Hydrogen development is highlighted as a significant solution for carbon reduction in hard-to-abate sectors like steel and petrochemicals [2]. Group 3: Technological Innovation and Carbon Management - Emphasis is placed on the importance of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies, with China Petrochemical Corporation having launched the country's first million-ton CCUS project [2]. - The energy and chemical industry is encouraged to focus on low-carbon production processes and expand the application of related technologies [2]. Group 4: Energy Security and Development Goals - Ensuring energy security is prioritized in the planning and development of the energy and chemical industry, with a balanced approach to both fossil and non-fossil energy sources [3]. - The industry is urged to adopt a demand-oriented approach for key technological breakthroughs and enhance digitalization to improve competitiveness [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with risk assets showing a preference. The domestic economy remains stable, presenting mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets, and the policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the weak US dollar pattern will continue in the long run. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. - The overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the ideas of long - short allocation diverge. In the financial sector, the bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. For precious metals, risk appetite has recovered, leading to a short - term adjustment. Shipping sentiment has declined, and the duration of the increase in the loading rate in June should be monitored. In the black building materials sector, the performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. The low inventory reality and weak demand expectations in the non - ferrous and new materials sector lead to continued oscillations. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil remains stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. In the agricultural sector, the substantial progress of Sino - US negotiations is beneficial for the market [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future. This week, the long - term inflation expectation has stabilized, the short - term inflation expectation has risen, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic fundamentals have changed little this week, with both internal and external demand showing some resilience. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the infrastructure physical workload has decreased seasonally. At the local level, the issuance of special bonds has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds from the central government will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Funds are releasing congestion, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Stock index options: Sellers need to wait for the inflection point of the decline in volatility, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Treasury bond futures: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: Pessimistic sentiment fades, and the price remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Coking coal: Transaction conditions improve, but confidence is still insufficient, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Other varieties: Most varieties are in a state of oscillation, while soda ash is expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a state of oscillation, while zinc is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, and nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation and decline. - LPG: Weak oscillation due to geopolitical easing. - Other varieties: Different varieties have different short - term judgments, such as oscillation, oscillation and rise, or oscillation and decline [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in a state of oscillation, with different influencing factors and short - term trends [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - This week, global fuel oil prices dropped significantly as geopolitical conflicts eased, returning to pre - conflict levels. The crack spread and time spread of fuel oil slightly declined from their highs, with low - sulfur fuel oil showing some strength relative to high - sulfur fuel oil [4]. - The core driver of the sharp price decline is the full reversal of the risk premium included in the price once oil transportation in the Middle East returns to normal after the geopolitical conflict eases. Fundamentally, Middle Eastern exports will remain stable in the short term, and with the lifting of geopolitical risks and the resumption of production at the Rabigh refinery next week, high - sulfur exports from the Middle East are expected to continue to rise, which will have a negative impact on high - sulfur prices. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although its demand in the bunker fuel market is continuously squeezed by high - sulfur fuel oil, exports from Brazil and north - western Europe to Asia are decreasing, and recent refinery maintenance in Japan will limit the amount of spot received in the Asia - Pacific market, supporting the time spread and crack spread of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil. In the domestic market, the low - sulfur production of domestic refineries is about to resume, but it is not expected to increase significantly in the next two months, having a relatively limited impact on the market [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices dropped significantly as geopolitical conflicts eased, and the crack spread and time spread of fuel oil slightly declined from their highs, with low - sulfur fuel oil showing strength relative to high - sulfur fuel oil [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: The sharp decline in fuel oil prices is due to the reversal of the risk premium. Middle Eastern high - sulfur exports are expected to rise, negatively affecting high - sulfur prices. Low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific market will see limited spot receipts, supporting its time spread and crack spread. Domestic low - sulfur production is expected to have a limited impact on the market in the short term [4]. 2. Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil commodity volume in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [19]. 3. Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly sales of fuel oil for bunkering in Singapore, the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [22]. 4. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the inventories of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [25][27][28]. 5. Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, and 1% fuel oil in north - western Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [32][35][36][38][39]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in north - western Europe, 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and high - sulfur fuel oil cargo in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [42][43]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the swap prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in north - western Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [45][46][48][49]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [51][53]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [55][56][58]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Time Spread**: Data on the time spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [62][63][65]. 6. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [69][71][72]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [74]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for liquefied petroleum gas is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - If geopolitical risks do not reach an extreme scenario, the fundamental situation of LPG will loosen marginally in the second half of this year. The supply side will have greater adjustment flexibility driven by the expansion of terminals in the U.S. Gulf and the increase in OPEC+ production, while propane chemical demand will be negatively impacted by the Sino - U.S. tariff game. If the Sino - U.S. tariffs do not ease unexpectedly, the FEI - CP central level is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year. The domestic market will be more affected by the C4 end and warrant trading, and the PG/SC gas - oil ratio is expected to remain weak [4][107] 3. Summary by Table of Contents 3.1 1H25 Market Review - In Q1, both domestic and international contracts oscillated within a range. The fundamental contradictions of LPG itself changed relatively little. The rise of LPG was weaker than that of crude oil. In mid - February, the game around the basis of domestic near - month contracts increased significantly. After the oil price dropped, the basis supported the 03 contract and suppressed the long - term sentiment. From March to April, a positive spread trend emerged instead of the reverse spread trend in previous years. In March, due to the reduction of supply caused by increased maintenance of domestic liquefied gas plants and strong chemical demand, the near - month spreads of domestic and international markets showed a positive spread trend [17] - In Q2, the market volatility increased significantly, and the trading logics of domestic and international markets diverged. The change in Sino - U.S. tariff policy was the main factor affecting international prices. After the U.S. imposed a 34% tariff on China on April 4, the FEI price dropped sharply in early April. After the unexpected easing of Sino - U.S. tariffs on May 12, the FEI/CP spread strengthened, but the domestic market was suppressed by the weak C4 demand and a large number of warrants and fell smoothly [18] - In June, the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict brought a new round of shocks. The FEI/CP spread soared, and the domestic market's spread continued to weaken [19] 3.2 Supply in the Second Half of the Year 3.2.1 United States - In the first half of the year, the U.S. C3 production increased, with the average net C3 production in Q1 at 265 million barrels per day and further rising to 283 million barrels per day by mid - June. In the second half of the year, only one fractionation unit is planned to be put into operation in Q3, and the marginal increase in production is limited. It is expected that the C3 production will only increase slightly in Q3 and decline marginally in Q4 [26][27] - From January to May, the U.S. LPG export volume increased by 5% year - on - year. The export capacity will expand in the second half of the year, with ETP and Targa's export capacities expected to increase by 3.85 million and 0.6 million tons per year respectively. However, the actual export volume will be affected by factors such as Northeast Asian demand, Sino - U.S. tariff game, and potential substitution demand due to the Middle East conflict. In addition, the hurricane season from June to November may impact the export rhythm [32][35][37] 3.2.2 Middle East - In the first half of the year, the Middle East's LPG export volume increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The supply increment mainly came from countries other than Saudi Arabia. In the second half of the year, the supply increment space is relatively limited. Although there are some planned projects, the actual increment that can be realized this year is likely to be small. If OPEC+ relaxes oil production cuts as planned, the potential export increment in the Middle East is about 150,000 tons per month. However, if the geopolitical conflict persists, the supply may face significant tightening risks [43][44][45] 3.3 Demand in the Second Half of the Year 3.3.1 Combustion Demand - India's LPG demand was strong in the first half of the year, with imports increasing by 5.2% year - on - year from January to May. It is expected that the import and demand growth rates in the second half of the year will be similar to those in the first half, with an annual import growth rate of about 5%. Other Asian regions' combustion demand showed no bright spots in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to Japan's summer inventory - building progress [61][62] 3.3.2 Chemical Demand - In the cracking end, the demand in the first half of the year was weak due to the poor relative economy of LPG. It is expected that the cracking demand in the second half of the year will be weaker than that in the first half, depending on the change in the relative economy of FEI - MOPJ. Regarding the PDH end, although the PDH device profit improved in Q1, it was under pressure in Q2 due to tariff policies. In the second half of the year, the profit repair space is limited, and the operating rate is likely to decline marginally [69][73][74] 3.4 China's LPG Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of the year, the domestic production of LPG decreased slightly year - on - year. The supply of domestic gas is expected to increase marginally in the second half of the year, mainly supported by the new CDU units in Zhenhai and Daxie. The domestic demand side is facing pressure, with the combustion demand weakening and the C4 chemical route performing weakly. Overall, if the current Sino - U.S. tariff scenario and geopolitical conflict intensity remain unchanged, the supply - demand balance in China is expected to be looser in the second half of the year [82][84][85] 3.5 Transportation Cost - If the geopolitical conflict remains at the current intensity, the impact on transportation costs in the second half of the year is limited. The freight rate on the U.S. Gulf - Far East route is expected to be relatively strong in the third quarter, mainly supported by factors such as geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, the hurricane season in the Atlantic, and potential congestion in the Panama Canal. However, the freight rate may weaken in the fourth quarter due to the planned launch of new ships [97][98] 3.6 Investment Suggestion - If geopolitical risks do not reach an extreme scenario, the fundamental situation of LPG will loosen marginally in the second half of the year. If the Sino - U.S. tariffs do not ease unexpectedly, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities. The domestic market will be affected by the C4 end and warrant trading, and the PG/SC gas - oil ratio is expected to remain weak [107]