1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

Report Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [5] - Caustic soda: Neutral [5] Core Views - PVC is facing high supply and inventory pressure, with weak domestic demand and insufficient cost - side support, so its upward space is limited [4][5] - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases [4][5] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,865 yuan/ton (+11), the East China basis was - 125 yuan/ton (-21), and the South China basis was - 65 yuan/ton (-11) [2] - Spot prices: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,740 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,800 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 230 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 621 yuan/ton (+37), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 516 yuan/ton (+10), and the PVC export profit was 7.2 dollars/ton (+6.8) [2] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant PVC inventory was 38.7 tons (-1.9), the social PVC inventory was 37.8 tons (-2.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 73.19% (-2.33%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 72.90% (+2.84%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 73.11% (-0.90%) [2] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 60.3 tons (-2.9) [2] Caustic Soda - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,486 yuan/ton (+29), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 202 yuan/ton (+2) [2] - Spot prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 860 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,420 yuan/ton (+20) [3] - Upstream production profit: The profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,696 yuan/ton (+31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 833.3 yuan/ton (+31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 241.28 yuan/ton (+21.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,455.35 yuan/ton (+0.00) [3] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 40.09 tons (-1.50), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.95 tons (+0.03), and the caustic soda operating rate was 84.10% (+1.50%) [3] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operating rate of alumina was 78.10% (+1.43%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 63.23% (+0.00%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.30% (-0.35%) [3] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The new maintenance scale is small, the previously maintained devices continue to shut down, the PVC operating rate declines slightly, and the supply pressure remains high due to high production and new capacity expectations [4] - Demand side: The operating rate of downstream PVC product enterprises is at a low level, the operation of PVC pipes, profiles, and films is weakly stable, and the demand side remains weak [4] - Cost side: The upstream calcium carbide market is weakly stable, the ex - factory price drops, and the cost - side support for PVC is insufficient [4] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Some new maintenance enterprises are added, the previously maintained enterprises resume operation, the overall operating rate of caustic soda rises slightly, and the supply pressure remains high due to new capacity expectations [4] - Demand side: The alumina price rises, the production profit is significantly repaired, and the operating rate is expected to rise, which may support the caustic soda price in the short term; non - aluminum downstream demand remains weak [4] - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreases slightly [4] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, with prices expected to remain weakly at the bottom in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand recovery [5] - Caustic soda: Neutral, with prices expected to continue the weakly volatile trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment sustainability and alumina capacity resumption progress [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Core Views of the Report Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and try positive spreads for the 6 - 9 contracts [7]. - **PVC**: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand factors. But in the long - term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure, and potential negative factors exist. It is suggested to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling idea in the medium - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices are in a volatile trend, lacking strong drivers. The market is mainly affected by macro and supply factors. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and the implied volatility is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, a trading - band strategy is recommended, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be observed. Attention should also be paid to the INE spread rebound opportunities and options' volatility - trading opportunities [12]. Styrene Industry - The recent rebound of styrene is due to tariff relief and low - inventory support. But high - price spot shows signs of weakness, and there are problems in the downstream and raw - material supply. It is expected to have more downward space, and the strategy is to short - sell at a high price around 7800 for the near - month contracts and pay attention to the widening opportunity of the EB - BZ spread [23]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is marginally weakening. It is relatively resistant to decline in the short - term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600 and try a reverse spread for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the basis has declined. It is also relatively resistant to decline. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 4600 and take a reverse - spread approach for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. The strategy is to wait and see on the single - side and try a positive spread for the 9 - 1 contracts at a low price [27]. - **Short - fiber**: The processing fee may be repaired. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at a low level [27]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the processing fee is low. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at the lower limit of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [27]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE and PP, the supply of LLDPE is expected to decrease in inventory before early June, while the supply pressure of PP will increase after late May. Demand lacks sustainability. The strategy is to short - sell PP at a high price and pay attention to the expansion of the LP spread [31]. Methanol Industry - The port inventory is at a turning point, and the supply is increasing while the demand is in the off - season. The 09 contract's supply - demand situation is more relaxed. The strategy is to short - sell around 2300 - 2350 with a target of around 2100, and the MTO spread should be operated within 0 - 500 [34]. Urea Industry - The supply is at a high level, while the demand is under pressure from the decline of compound - fertilizer plants and stagnant agricultural fertilization. The short - term market is likely to move in a range after the decline [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On May 26, the 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2687.5 yuan/ton (in 100% equivalent), and the 50% was 2840 yuan/ton. The PVC market prices in East China were 4760 yuan/ton for the calcium - carbide method and 5000 yuan/ton for the ethylene method [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 22 was 405 dollars/ton, with an export profit of 32.1 yuan/ton. For PVC, the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 670 dollars/ton, and the export profit was 40.3 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry's operating rate on May 23 was 86.9%, and the PVC total operating rate was 73.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate on May 23 was 78%, and the PVC downstream pipe - making and profile - making operating rates were 45.3% and 39.6% respectively [6][7]. - **Inventory**: On May 22, the liquid - caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 19.1 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.7 tons [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 27, Brent was 64.71 dollars/barrel, WTI was 61.47 dollars/barrel, and SC was 455.90 yuan/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.24 dollars/barrel [12]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The market is affected by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran nuclear talks, and macro - economic policies [12]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.7 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was 780 dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot price in East China on May 26 was 7825 yuan/ton, and the EB2506 futures price was 7341 yuan/ton [21]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: The styrene CFR China price on May 26 was 896 dollars/ton, and the import profit was 271.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: On May 23, the domestic pure - benzene comprehensive operating rate was 71.6%, and the styrene operating rate was 69.3% [23]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.74 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR China PX was 834 dollars/ton [27]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On May 26, the POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton, and the FDY150/96 price was 7275 yuan/ton [27]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Asian PX operating rate was 69.4%, the PTA operating rate was 77.1%, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate was 95% [27]. Polyolefin Industry - **PE and PP Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the L2505 closing price was 7008 yuan/ton, and the PP2505 closing price was 6888 yuan/ton [31]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The East China LDPE price on May 26 was 8930 yuan/ton [31]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: On May 23, the PE device operating rate was 78%, and the PP device operating rate was 76.8%. The PE enterprise inventory was 49.8 tons, and the PP enterprise inventory was 59.3 tons [31]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the MA2501 closing price was 2293 yuan/ton, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 338 yuan/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: On May 23, the methanol enterprise inventory was 33.401 tons, and the port inventory was 49 tons [34]. - **Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Shanghai - domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.51%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate was 75.7% [34]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the 01 - contract price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On May 26, the price of anthracite small pieces (Dangcheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of steam - coal at the pithead (Ejin Horo Banner) was 418 yuan/ton [38]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons, and the factory inventory was 91.74 tons [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views 2.1烧碱 - Short - term, concentrated maintenance limits supply pressure. Alumina has a复产预期 and new production lines support demand. Shandong mainstream factory purchase prices have increased four times, reaching 800 yuan/ton, supporting the spot price. However, non - aluminum pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction pose risks. Suggest to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and try 6 - 9 positive spreads [2]. 2.2 PVC - The recent PVC rebound is due to macro - stimulation from Sino - US tariff easing, positive exports from BIS policy extension, and supply - demand support from concentrated maintenance and limited inventory pressure. But in the medium - long term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure due to the weak real estate market, and Indian BIS and anti - dumping taxes are potential negatives. The spot market is tepid after the rebound, and the market has a downward trend. Adopt a high - short strategy for the medium - term, with the resistance level for 09 around 5100 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1烧碱 3.1.1 Price and Market Trends - The price of caustic soda has fluctuated. Factors such as macro - environment, alumina procurement price changes, and inventory levels have affected the market. For example, recent increases in alumina procurement prices have supported the spot market [6]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of May 22, the national weighted average caustic soda production capacity utilization rate was 86.86%, up 1.08% from last week. In Shandong, it was 89.59%, up 3.3%. Second - quarter maintenance will reduce the production capacity utilization rate, and inventory reduction supports the spot price [24]. 3.1.3 Demand - Alumina has a large number of new production capacity plans from the end of 2024 to 2025, with an estimated annual capacity growth rate of around 10% and a production growth rate of around 6% in 2025. New alumina production will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with 150,000 tons concentrated from April to June [29]. 3.1.4 Profit - The profit of the caustic soda industry is affected by factors such as raw salt prices and liquid chlorine prices. Currently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has a negative impact on corporate profits [15]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Market Trends - The PVC price has fluctuated. Factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and policies have affected the market. For example, Sino - US tariff easing and concentrated maintenance have led to price rebounds, but the long - term oversupply pressure remains [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - In April 2025, PVC powder production was 1.9264 million tons, with a cumulative production of 7.9262 million tons from January to April, a 1.1% increase compared to the same period in 2024. As of May 22, the overall PVC powder production capacity utilization rate was 73.11%, down 0.9 percentage points. The second - quarter maintenance will reduce the production capacity utilization rate [83]. 3.2.3 Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face pressure, and the real estate market continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are lower than the five - year average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are high [92]. 3.2.4 Inventory - PVC inventory has been decreasing, and the year - on - year pressure is limited. However, the long - term demand weakness may still affect the inventory situation [100]. 3.2.5 International Market - As of May 22, the Asian PVC market was weakly stable. Indian demand expansion theoretically benefits Chinese exports, but the long - term impact of Indian BIS and anti - dumping taxes is negative. The US tariff has affected the export of PVC products [118].

数据来源：隆众资讯、Bloomberg、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,本报告反映研究 人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不拘成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所 有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为'广发期货'。 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 5月26日 | 5月23日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent | 65.25 | 64.78 | 0.47 | 0.73% | | | WIT | 62.00 | 61.53 | 0.47 | 0.76% | 美元/桶 | | ਟ | 456.80 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The market will face pressure in the later stage. Although the downstream replenishment in May supports the market, the sustainability of stockpiling is crucial. After replenishment, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under the negative demand feedback. The market may show a positive - spread downward trend. The supply side will see more maintenance in June, especially in Shandong. The cost side has more room to decline due to the drop in coal and electricity prices, but the change in liquid chlorine price also needs attention. The strategy is to go short on rallies before significant supply cuts [5]. - **PVC**: It will fluctuate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease. The high - production pattern will continue in the short term due to low costs and high caustic soda profits. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the export demand can only relieve it temporarily. The domestic demand related to real estate is still weak, and the procurement enthusiasm is low after the price rebound. Profit compression and supply cuts are needed to balance supply and demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 View Summary - **Caustic Soda**: The current situation is strong, but the expectation is weak. The market may decline in a positive - spread pattern. Do not be overly bearish below 2400. The key to the performance of 09 and 10 contracts lies in the scale and sustainability of maintenance from June to August [5]. - **PVC**: The high - production and high - inventory problem persists. The domestic demand is hard to improve continuously, and profit compression and supply cuts are required for balance [10]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Price**: The cheapest deliverable product price in Shandong is about 2656 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spread**: The 09 basis and 7 - 9 month spread of caustic soda are strengthening. The 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali spread is slightly higher than the evaporation cost, which is bullish for caustic soda. The export still supports the market in June, but there will be a price game between domestic and foreign parties. The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is average [23][28][32]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - **Market Structure**: The production is rising, and the inventory is falling. The current domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 84.1%, a 1.5% increase from the previous week [44]. - **Maintenance**: Pay attention to the maintenance scale from June to August, with concentrated maintenance in Shandong in June [48]. - **New Capacity**: The planned new capacity in 2025 is 255 tons, but the actual expansion may be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. Pay attention to the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang in June - July [49][52]. - **Chlor - consuming Downstream**: The start - up of some downstream industries such as propylene oxide and dichloromethane has changed, which has a limited impact on caustic soda supply due to its high profit [58][69]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - **Alumina**: The start - up and inventory are declining, and the profit is rebounding. Some regions are still in a loss state. The new capacity is still being put into production, and the demand for caustic soda may expand if there is a resumption of production [74][78][84]. - **Paper Pulp**: The capacity expansion continues, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of the finished paper industry is lower than the same period [85][90]. - **Other Industries**: The start - up of viscose staple fiber is declining, the printing and dyeing start - up is flat, the water treatment start - up is rising, and the ternary precursor start - up is stable [95][98][100]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis and 9 - 1 month spread are strengthening [110]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The start - up rate is declining month - on - month but has not reached the 2023 reduction level. There will be more maintenance in the Northwest from June to August. The new capacity in 2025 will reach 210 tons, with concentrated commissioning of 110 tons in June - July [115][116][117]. - **Demand**: The real - estate demand is still weak. The downstream start - up is rising month - on - month but is weak year - on - year. The export has certain demand in the early stage but is expected to weaken later due to the Indian rainy season and BIS policy. The warehouse receipt quantity will rise again [123][129][138].

Consumption - Auto consumption shows significant improvement with a notable increase in wholesale and retail sales, leading to a strong performance in this sector[9] - Service consumption experiences fluctuations due to holidays but shows a marginal improvement overall[49] Investment - Infrastructure bond issuance accelerates, with a total of CNY 1.37 trillion issued as of May 11, 2025, including CNY 177.6 billion in the first ten days of May[16] - Real estate market remains under pressure, with new home transaction area in 30 cities dropping from a year-on-year growth of 10.6% to 1.2%[16] Trade - Vietnam's exports grow by 21.0% year-on-year in April, driven by re-export and transshipment activities[21] - Domestic port operations slow down, with a decline in the number of ships docking and departing from major ports[21] Production - Overall production indicators show a marginal decline, particularly in power generation, steel, petrochemicals, and automotive sectors[28] - Coal consumption for power generation experiences a seasonal decline, indicating a potential short-term reduction in industrial electricity usage[28] Inventory and Prices - Industrial inventories, except for cement, are generally on the rise, with coal inventories nearing historical highs[38] - Consumer prices (CPI) show a marginal increase, while industrial prices (PPI) decline, reflecting a mixed pricing environment[43]

Consumption - Automotive consumption remains high, with wholesale and retail sales showing a slight decline due to seasonal factors, but the four-week average year-on-year growth rate remains stable[4] - Service consumption is relatively flat, with urban congestion indices decreasing and subway passenger flow rebounding, although overall numbers are slightly down year-on-year[4] Investment - Infrastructure investment is accelerating, with special bond issuance reaching CNY 1.48 trillion as of May 18, 2025, and CNY 285.2 billion issued in the first 18 days of May[11] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities show a seasonal rebound but year-on-year growth has dropped from 6.3% to -15.0%[14] Trade and Port Operations - Import and export activities have rebounded due to tariff adjustments, with port operations improving and the number of ships docking at ports increasing significantly[17] - Export freight rates have seen a notable increase, with Shanghai and Ningbo export rates rising by 10.0% and 6.5% respectively[17] Production - Power generation coal consumption has rebounded, indicating marginal recovery in production, with some industries showing improved operating rates[19] - The steel and petrochemical sectors have seen slight improvements in operating rates, although some areas still face year-on-year declines[20] Inventory and Prices - Most inventories have decreased, except for coal and cement, which have seen increases, with coal inventories reaching historical highs[32] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased while Producer Price Index (PPI) has increased, indicating a stabilization in industrial product prices overall[34] Currency and Liquidity - The Chinese Yuan has appreciated to 7.20 against the US dollar, with the dollar index rising by 56 basis points due to favorable US economic data[39] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 rising by 5 and 10 basis points respectively[36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes three main investment themes in the chemical industry: focusing on high ROE core assets, growth opportunities from domestic substitution in new materials, and the importance of agricultural chemicals and civil explosives [1] - In 2024, the chemical product prices are expected to decline, with a slight increase in revenue for listed companies, but a decrease in profitability, indicating the industry is still in a bottoming process [1] - The average CCPI for 2024 is projected to be 4560 points, a year-on-year decrease of 2.56%, while the average for Q1 2025 is expected to be 4343 points, down 5.80% year-on-year and 0.44% month-on-month [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the chemical industry achieved a total revenue of 5860.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.84%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 360.16 billion yuan, also up 5.63% year-on-year [2] - Among 18 sub-industries, net profits increased year-on-year, while 15 sub-industries saw declines; 29 sub-industries improved their profits quarter-on-quarter, with only 4 experiencing declines [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of construction projects in the chemical industry turned negative for the first time in Q1 2025, indicating a tightening of expansion efforts [3] - The total fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 15086.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.49%, while the total amount of construction projects decreased by 9.13% year-on-year [3] Group 4 - The average inventory scale in the chemical industry increased by 6.00% year-on-year to 4078.05 billion yuan, while the inventory turnover days slightly decreased [4] - The operating cash flow turned positive in Q1 2025, with a net inflow of 135.82 billion yuan, reversing from a net outflow in the previous year [4] Group 5 - The chemical industry is currently underweight in institutional holdings, with a market value proportion of 3.78% in actively managed public funds, indicating a potential for value appreciation [5] - The proportion of heavy holdings in the petroleum and petrochemical sector is also low, suggesting a similar underweight situation [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC faces high inventory and supply pressure, with weak domestic demand, and its upward space is restricted. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply - demand drive of caustic soda is expected to be weak, and there is insufficient upward momentum for prices. Attention should be paid to upstream device maintenance and downstream demand procurement rhythm [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,969 yuan/ton (+20), the East China basis was - 149 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China basis was - 79 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 605 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 206 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was - 658 yuan/ton (+47), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was - 526 yuan/ton (+126), and the PVC export profit was 1.9 US dollars/ton (+1.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and start - up: The PVC in - factory inventory was 40.6 tons (-2.0), the PVC social inventory was 39.7 tons (-1.3), the PVC calcium carbide method start - up rate was 75.52% (-4.47%), the PVC ethylene method start - up rate was 70.06% (-2.20%), and the PVC start - up rate was 74.01% (-3.84%) [1]. - Downstream order status: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.2 tons (+11.1) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,527 yuan/ton (-18), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 98 yuan/ton (+18) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,400 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,634 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 730.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 198.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,471.75 yuan/ton (+131.31) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 41.59 tons (+2.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.92 tons (-0.11), and the caustic soda start - up rate was 82.60% (-1.30%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate was 75.47% (-0.29%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China was 63.23% (+2.55%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate was 80.65% (-0.35%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: There are many new maintenance enterprises, and the previously maintained devices continue to shut down. The PVC start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, and the maintenance increase has led to a month - on - month decline in the PVC factory inventory, but the overall supply remains high [3]. - Demand side: The start - up of PVC downstream product enterprises has rebounded but is still at a low level in the same period. The start - up of PVC pipes, profiles, and films is weakly stable. The downstream market mainly purchases on a rigid - demand basis at low prices, and the weakness on the demand side is difficult to reverse [3]. - Exports: Export orders are delivered stably, the PVC social inventory continues to decline, but the destocking rate is slow. The uncertainty of India's anti - dumping and BIS certification policies will still affect PVC exports [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are many new maintenance enterprises, and some previously maintained enterprises have not resumed production. The overall caustic soda start - up rate has decreased, but under the support of profits, most manufacturers maintain high - load operation, and the supply - side pressure is still relatively large [3]. - Demand side: The spot price of alumina, the main downstream product, has rebounded, the production profit of the alumina industry has significantly recovered, and the production reduction efforts may weaken under the support of profits. At the same time, the possibility of resuming production of previously maintained and production - reduced enterprises has increased, and the caustic soda consumption demand is expected to further increase in the later stage. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by the main alumina factory in Shandong has been raised to 800 yuan/ton, which may further boost the caustic soda price. Non - aluminum downstream terminals still have certain resistance to high - priced goods, the procurement mentality is cautious, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the start - up of terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing is still at a low level in the same period, and the non - aluminum demand is still expected to be weak [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory pressure is still relatively large [3].