Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the consumption side of steel may gradually recover. In the short term, demand is still weak, but there may be an inflection point in the future [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profits, the demand side continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains high. After the macro - events are realized, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and silicon iron, the fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and both are likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited [13][16]. - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,534 tons, with no change. The main - contract open interest decreased by 11,428 lots to 2.020353 million lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.092%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 889 tons to 99,412 tons. The main - contract open interest decreased by 7743 lots to 1.365348 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and the inventory showed reverse - seasonal accumulation. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the risk of hot - rolled coil inventory still exists. Future attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm. With the improvement of the macro - environment, the demand may recover in the future [2]. Iron Ore Market Conditions - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.19% (+1.50). The open interest decreased by 7164 lots to 537,500 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 57.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.83% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron - ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level in the same period. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory and steel - mill inventory increased. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel - mill profits, the iron - ore demand continued to weaken, and the price was expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Conditions - On November 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.38% at 5798 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 0.47% at 5586 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 14 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, and potential drivers might come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious contradictions, and both were likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9065 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The open interest increased by 1917 lots to 400,305 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 235 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 165 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,395 yuan/ton, up 0.07% (+40). The open interest decreased by 4850 lots to 225,552 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1195 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persisted, and the demand support was weakening. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern might improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range was limited [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Conditions - The glass main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.36% (+4). The price of large - size glass in North China remained unchanged at 1130 yuan, and the price in Central China increased by 20 yuan to 1140 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.654 million boxes (-4.03%) to 63.136 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9576 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 10,400 lots [18]. - The soda - ash main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.00% (+12). The price of heavy - ash in Shahe increased by 12 yuan to 1157 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7142 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 5605 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 22,126 lots [20]. Strategy Views - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the ore price is under pressure [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a significant increase in inventory. Under the disturbance of production restrictions, steel mill production weakens, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the weak demand in the steel market suppresses the ore price. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the ore price is under pressure to run weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the ore price under pressure [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a large inventory build - up. Steel mill production weakens under production restrictions, and ore terminal consumption declines. The weak demand in the steel market restrains the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has recovered as expected, and the overseas miners' shipments have declined but are still at a high level this year. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the ore price is under pressure [3].

一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月07日08时16分 报告导读： 供需方面，本周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存在大幅回升后已经远高于同期水平 ，本周总库存继 续上升。焦煤和焦炭现货偏强运行，对成本构成一定支撑。不过，由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期即将过去，未来钢厂预计将压减产量从而 可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价突破了上方 10 日均线的压制后有所回调，目前均已经跌破了下 方 10 日均线的支撑，目前下方有布林带下轨的支撑。 投资咨询系列报告 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待企稳后逢低做多，中线交易。 山金期货黑色板块日报 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3037 | 13 | 0.43% | -69 | -2.22% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3256 | 3 | 0. ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Spot Market - Newman powder: latest price 778, daily change +4, weekly change -24, conversion to contract price 832.4, import profit -26.42 [1] - PB powder: latest price 785, daily change +4, weekly change -20, conversion to contract price 832.7, import profit -17.42 [1] - Macfarlane powder: latest price 780, daily change +2, weekly change -15, conversion to contract price 851.9, import profit 6.55 [1] - Jinbuba powder: latest price 736, daily change +3, weekly change -19, conversion to contract price 828.0, import profit -1.76 [1] - Mixed powder: latest price 737, daily change 0, weekly change -26, conversion to contract price 866.8, import profit -5.29 [1] - Super special powder: latest price 687, daily change 0, weekly change -27, conversion to contract price 902.4, import profit -9.16 [1] - Carajás powder: latest price 893, daily change 0, weekly change -27, conversion to contract price 838.3, import profit -0.15 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder: latest price 821, daily change 0, weekly change -21, conversion to contract price 836.3, import profit -3.93 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: latest price 787, daily change +4, weekly change -20, conversion to contract price 863.3 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: latest price 792, daily change +4, weekly change -20 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate: latest price 890, daily change +2, weekly change -27, conversion to contract price 982.5 [1] - 61% Indian powder: latest price 725, daily change +3, weekly change -19 [1] - Karara concentrate: latest price 892, daily change +2, weekly change -25, conversion to contract price 913.9 [1] - Roy Hill powder: latest price 772, daily change +4, weekly change -20, conversion to contract price 849.8, import profit 11.82 [1] - KUMBA powder: latest price 844, daily change +4, weekly change -20, conversion to contract price 835.3 [1] - 57% Indian powder: latest price 622, daily change 0, weekly change -27 [1] - Atlas powder: latest price 732, daily change 0, weekly change -26 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate: latest price 1008, daily change 0, weekly change -30, conversion to contract price 895.0 [1] Iron Ore Futures Market - i2601: latest price 777.5, daily change +1.5, weekly change -25.0, monthly spread -42.5, latest monthly spread 50.5, daily change +1.7, weekly change +4.6 [1] - i2605: latest price 756.0, daily change +2.0, weekly change -23.5, monthly spread 21.5, latest monthly spread 72.0, daily change +1.2, weekly change +3.1 [1] - i2609: latest price 735.0, daily change +1.0, weekly change -23.5, monthly spread 21.0, latest monthly spread 93.0, daily change +2.2, weekly change +3.1 [1] - FE01: latest price 100.47, daily change -0.14, weekly change -3.55, monthly spread -4.37, latest monthly spread -33.3, daily change +1.8, weekly change -3.3 [1] - FE05: latest price 98.18, daily change -0.20, weekly change -3.48, monthly spread 2.29, latest monthly spread -36.8, daily change -0.2, weekly change -2.8 [1] - FE09: latest price 96.10, daily change -0.19, weekly change -3.40, monthly spread 2.08, latest monthly spread -40.1, daily change +0.2, weekly change -1.9 [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current fundamentals of iron ore show an expectation of increased supply and weakening demand due to the profit constraints of downstream steel enterprises, leading to a weak overall fundamental situation and a downward trend in ore prices. The current iron ore futures market lacks a clear main operating logic, and the price fluctuates within the previous trading range. It is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprise profits and the support level of the lower edge of the previous trading range. Considering that the current ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a historically low level, an arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" can be considered [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market - On November 5, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opening lower and then rising slightly, closing at 776.0 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [7]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and open interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on November 5. For example, the RB2601 contract closed at 3024 yuan/ton, down 1.21%; the I2601 contract closed at 776 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [5]. - The table also shows the open interest of the top 20 long and short positions in the black - series futures on November 5. The long - short position difference of the I2601 contract was - 7,262, with a deviation of - 2.06% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On November 5, the main iron ore overseas quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained unchanged from the previous trading day [9]. - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.3 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have increased, and the arrivals have significantly rebounded after two consecutive weeks of low levels. Considering the cumulative shipments of 109.784 billion tons in the past four weeks, a 3.78% increase compared with the previous four - week period, it is expected that the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level, and the arrivals in November will fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea is expected to be sent in November, which may suppress the prices of far - month iron ore contracts [10][11]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron production has continued to decline and has been below 2.4 million tons for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, with more than half of steel enterprises in a loss state. It is expected that the pig iron production will continue to decline. The production and demand of the five major steel products have recovered, but there is a divergence from the pig iron production data, and the sustainability of the demand recovery needs to be observed. Considering the cooling weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [11]. - Inventory: Steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the inventory available days at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has reached 145 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [11]. 3.2 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, from October 27 to November 2, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a 3% increase compared with the previous period and a 35.9% decrease compared with the same period last year. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1225 million square meters, a 5.9% decrease compared with the previous period and an 18.5% decrease compared with the same period last year [12]. - On the afternoon of October 31, President Xi Jinping met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, reaching important consensus and providing strategic guidance for the improvement and development of China - Canada relations. The Chinese side is willing to work with the Canadian side to resume and restart exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the solution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade/low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, the shipment volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, main port iron ore trading volumes, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volumes, sample steel mill tax - free pig iron costs, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, the weekly production of the five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][26][28][29][35][40][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.40%. Currently, rebar supply has declined, but demand has also decreased. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate and find the bottom. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.22%. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil has declined from a high level, but demand is also poor. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, and hot - rolled coil prices continue to be under pressure. Given the cost support, the subsequent trend will show a pattern of fluctuating and finding the bottom, and the trend will be weaker than that of building materials. Breaking the deadlock depends on steel mills increasing production cuts [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.65%. Currently, iron ore supply remains high, while demand continues to decline. In the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, industrial contradictions in the ore industry lead to accelerated inventory accumulation, and ore prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term market recovery. The subsequent trend will continue to be weakly fluctuating. Pay attention to the performance of steel products [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In October 2025, the average monthly working hours of major construction machinery products in China was 80.9 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03% and a month - on - month increase of 3.62%. The monthly average working hours of excavators was 68.6 hours. The monthly start - up rate of major construction machinery products was 55%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The start - up rate of excavators was 55.1% [7]. - In October 2025, the total bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9%. Affected by the low base in the same period last year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises increased significantly. From the perspective of financing structure, the credit bond financing of the real estate industry was 32.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 50.7%, accounting for 63.8%; overseas bond financing was 2.85 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6%; ABS financing was 15.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 115.8%, accounting for 30.6%. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points. In the first 10 months of this year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises was 488.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [8]. - In the third quarter of 2025, the iron ore production of Canadian mining company IOC was 4.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The year - on - year significant increase was mainly due to the impact of a 11 - day shutdown after forest fires in the third quarter of 2024. The salable iron ore production (concentrate + pellets) was 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 6% [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,220 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,318 yuan respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,170 yuan; the coil - rebar price difference was 110 yuan; the rebar - scrap price difference was 990 yuan [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 785 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 803 yuan; the sea freight from Australia was 9.63 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.15 yuan; the SGX swap (current month) was 104.33 yuan; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.90 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,037 | 0.40 | 3,042 | 3,017 | 884,740 | - 264,825 | 2,020,353 | - 11,428 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,256 | 0.22 | 3,271 | 3,241 | 462,037 | 14,203 | 1,365,348 | - 7,743 | | Iron Ore | - | 777.5 | 0.65 | 779.5 | 771.0 | 259,605 | - 22,010 | 537,495 | - 7,164 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills [22][25]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: There are charts showing the blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace start - up rate, profitability of steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [31][32][35]. 3.5后市研判（Translated as Future Market Judgment） - **Rebar**: Both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 40,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level this year, with high inventory levels and supply pressure not relieved. At the same time, rebar demand has weakened as expected, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 136,600 tons month - on - month. Speculative demand is weak due to weak steel prices. Both are at low levels in recent years, and downstream conditions have not improved. As the off - season approaches, demand is likely to continue to weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate and find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. Affected by production restrictions, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 54,000 tons month - on - month, with a limited decline, and it is still at a relatively high level this year. High inventory levels and unrelieved supply pressure continue to suppress hot - rolled coil prices. At the same time, hot - rolled coil demand has begun to weaken, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 175,900 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions remaining sluggish. The production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has continued to decline, and industrial contradictions have not been alleviated, continuing to drag down hot - rolled coils. In addition, the improvement in external demand is limited, and the resilience of hot - rolled coil demand is weakening. It is expected that the subsequent trend will show a pattern of fluctuating and finding the bottom, and the trend will be weaker than that of building materials. Breaking the deadlock depends on steel mills increasing production cuts [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Affected by production restrictions, the terminal demand for ore has continued to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, and the decline continued to expand, indicating an obvious trend of weakening demand. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, coupled with frequent seasonal production - restriction disturbances, ore demand is expected to continue to decline, and weak demand is likely to drag down ore prices. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded as expected, while the shipments of overseas miners have declined. Both are at relatively high levels, and domestic ore supply has increased, increasing the supply pressure of ore. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to be weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's "rate cut + halt to balance sheet reduction" signals a major shift in post - pandemic monetary policy. A December rate cut is likely, but future policies will be more flexible and uncertain due to internal US disputes, data gaps from government shutdowns, and inflation stickiness [1][54] - The eurozone economy shows "strengthened stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." Short - term resilience depends on the service sector, while long - term growth faces challenges such as manufacturing drag, external tariff impacts, and insufficient policy coordination [2][54] - Domestically, the economy in the first three quarters met expectations, showing strong resilience and vitality. Despite pressure on consumption and investment, policies ensure stable growth. Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal stimulus in Q4 will support the economy [2][55] - The real estate market is neutral to bearish as front - end indicators are declining, and it lacks conditions for a quick recovery [6][84] - Steel exports exceeded 10 million tons in September, with plate leading the growth. Exports are expected to remain above 9 million tons per month in Q4 [7][84] - Steel inventories are higher than usual after the National Day, and if the current destocking rate continues, there will be inventory pressure in November and December, weighing on steel prices [7] - Annual crude steel production may be around 950 million tons, a reduction of 50 million tons, with a decline in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production [7] - The auto market has grown rapidly this year, especially the new - energy vehicle sector, but high - base growth will be difficult in the second half of the year [7] - The home appliance market benefited from policies in the peak season but faces a decline in year - end production scheduling and uncertain exports in Q4, with only a slight annual increase [7] - In November, steel prices are under pressure, with limited room for a sharp decline, and are likely to move lower and then consolidate at a low level [7][85] - In October, the iron ore market had a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with macro factors driving prices up. In November, trading will return to the real - world situation as macro drivers weaken [12][114] - Iron ore supply pressure may ease in November. Demand will continue to decline, and inventory accumulation may slow down or slightly decline. Prices are expected to trade in a range [12][115] - In October, the coking coal and coke market rebounded. In November, as supply increases steadily, demand faces seasonal decline, and inventory may accumulate, the market's fundamental support may weaken [15][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Macro - Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, Domestic Demand Remains Under Pressure - **Market Operation Logic** - **US**: In October, the US economy was under pressure with manufacturing and services "double - pressured." The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended balance sheet reduction. Manufacturing was in long - term contraction, services growth slowed sharply, the labor market cooled, and inflation fell more than expected [21][25] - **Eurozone**: In October, the eurozone economy showed "strengthened stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." Services drove economic expansion, while manufacturing recovery was weak. The labor market was stable, and inflation was cooling overall [27][29] - **Domestic**: In Q3, China's GDP grew steadily, with the service sector driving growth. Investment declined, consumption slowed, and exports showed resilience. Price indices showed some recovery, and the PMI indicated stable production [32][50] - **Market Trend Judgment** - Overseas, the Fed's policy shift and future uncertainties will impact the global financial market. The eurozone's economic future depends on key variables. Domestically, Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal stimulus in Q4 will support the economy [54][55] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [57] Part 2: Finished Products - Demand Suppresses Prices, Steel Prices Weakly Operate - **Market Operation Logic** - **Real Estate**: The real estate market is neutral to bearish for building materials as investment, sales, and other indicators are declining, and the market is slow to recover [59][60] - **Exports**: In September, steel exports exceeded 10 million tons again, with high - value - added plates leading. Exports are diversifying, and Q4 exports are expected to remain above 9 million tons per month [64] - **Inventory**: Steel inventories are accumulating, which will pressure prices in November and December if the current destocking rate continues [66] - **Crude Steel Production**: Crude steel production is decreasing, and annual production may be around 950 million tons, with rebar production falling and hot - rolled coil production rising [7][70] - **Automobile Market**: The automobile market is growing rapidly, especially the new - energy vehicle sector. However, high - base growth will be difficult in the second half of the year [71][74] - **Home Appliance Market**: Home appliance production scheduling is declining in November. Exports are showing differentiation, and the market may slow down in Q4 with a slight annual increase [75][82] - **Market Trend Judgment** - Steel prices in November are under pressure, with limited room for a sharp decline, and are likely to move lower and then consolidate at a low level [85] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Changes in US trade policy and the introduction of unexpected domestic macro - stimulus policies [87] Part 3: Iron Ore - Macro Enters a Vacuum Period, Market Returns to Reality - **Market Operation Logic** - **Market Review**: In October, the iron ore market had a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with macro factors driving prices up. The industry reality was weak, but macro expectations were positive [12][89] - **Supply**: In October, imports increased for four consecutive months, and domestic production declined. In November, supply pressure may ease due to Australian mine maintenance and weak prices [92][101] - **Demand**: In October, domestic demand weakened, and exports had limited growth. In November, demand will continue to decline, and restocking demand may support prices [102] - **Inventory**: In October, port inventory accumulated due to strong supply and weak demand. In November, inventory accumulation may slow down or slightly decline [107] - **Market Trend Judgment** - As macro drivers weaken in November, the iron ore market will return to reality. Prices are expected to trade in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/ton for the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures, corresponding to about 100 - 105 US dollars/ton for the overseas market [114][116] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Stability of overseas ore shipments, domestic policy increments, and the speed of steel mill profit decline [118] Part 4: Coking Coal and Coke - Prices Trade in a Range, Pay Attention to Demand Resilience - **Market Operation Logic** - **Market Review in October 2025**: In October, coking coal and coke prices rebounded due to a warm macro - environment and fundamental support [121][123] - **Coking Coal**: Coal production may increase steadily in November. Imports are rising, but demand may decline seasonally, and inventory may accumulate [124][130] - **Coke**: The coke market follows the coking coal market. The key lies in demand, and if steel mills' profits deteriorate further, it will limit price rebounds [16] - **Market Trend Judgment** - In November, the coking coal and coke market's fundamental support may weaken, and prices will trade in a range [16] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Production rhythm of coking coal, coke, and steel, changes in imported coal volume, and demand negative - feedback pressure transmission [16]

Core Viewpoint - HeSteel Resources has experienced a stock price increase of 34.78% year-to-date, but has seen a decline of 2.11% in the last five trading days and 8.32% in the last 20 days, indicating volatility in its recent performance [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, HeSteel Resources reported a revenue of 4.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 538 million yuan, down 6.91% year-on-year [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed dividends of 1.298 billion yuan since its A-share listing, with 914 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for HeSteel Resources was 28,300, a decrease of 6.54% from the previous period, with an average of 22,171 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 7.00% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 11.362 million shares, an increase of 1.7024 million shares from the previous period, and HSBC Jintrust Small Cap Stock, holding 6.5423 million shares, an increase of 171,050 shares [3]. Market Activity - On November 6, HeSteel Resources' stock price rose by 2.03%, reaching 18.06 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 134 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.19%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 11.788 billion yuan [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 11.5885 million yuan, with large orders showing a buy of 19.5532 million yuan and a sell of 23.6957 million yuan [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Segment**: Last week's data showed that the apparent demand for rebar continued to rise, rebar production increased, but the decline rate of total inventory was slow. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was much higher than the same - period level after a significant increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were strong, providing some cost support. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills were expected to cut production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils broke through the upper 10 - day moving average and then pulled back, and currently fell below the lower 10 - day moving average, with support from the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **For the Iron Ore Segment**: The sample steel mills' hot - metal production decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills might continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments declined from the high level, and port inventories increased during the consumption peak season, which put pressure on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampened market sentiment. With the realization of macro - level positives, combined with losses and seasonal decline in terminal demand, futures prices faced correction pressure. Technically, the 01 contract's rebound was blocked, with obvious pressure from the upper Bollinger Band, and the futures price had fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10 - day moving average, with support near the lower Bollinger Band [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.66%) from the previous day and 109 yuan (- 3.48%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous day and 92 yuan (- 2.75%) from last week. Other related prices also showed different degrees of decline [3]. - **Production Data**: The national building materials steel mills' rebar production was 212.59 tons, up 5.52 tons (2.67%) from last week. The hot - rolled coil production was 323.56 tons, up 1.10 tons (0.34%) from last week [3]. - **Inventory Data**: The five - major varieties' social inventory was 1077.08 tons, down 22.62 tons (- 2.06%) from last week. The rebar social inventory was 430.81 tons, down 6.67 tons (- 1.52%) from last week. The hot - rolled coil social inventory was 328.93 tons, down 8.64 tons (- 2.56%) from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, avoid chasing ups and downs, and patiently wait for the price to stabilize before going long on dips for medium - term trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 776 yuan/dry ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and down 28.5 yuan (- 3.54%) from last week. The settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - first contract was 103.52 dollars/dry ton, down 0.08 dollars (- 0.08%) from the previous day and 2.18 dollars (- 2.06%) from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1639.7 tons, down 81.9 tons (- 4.76%) from last week. Brazilian iron ore shipments were 789.1 tons, down 7.5 tons (- 0.94%) from last week. The port inventory was 14542.48 tons, up 118.89 tons (0.82%) from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for the price to stabilize before going long on dips [5]. Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons (11.8%) from the previous ten - day period. The key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a daily output decrease of 9.8% on a ten - day - on - ten - day basis [7]. - According to Mysteel, most of the blast furnaces under maintenance in Tangshan at the end of October resumed production on November 1st. From 18:00 on November 3rd, the city launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, with most implementing a 30% sintering production limit [7].