农产品日报 | 2025-12-03 纸浆强势反弹，郑糖依旧偏弱 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13800元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14817元/吨，较前一日变动+54元/吨，现货基差CF01+1017，较前一日变动+19；3128B棉全国均价14980元/吨， 较前一日变动+44元/吨，现货基差CF01+1180，较前一日变动+9。 近期市场资讯，截至11月28日，印度棉花累计上市量折皮棉约85.0万吨。1日2025/26年度印度棉花上市量折皮棉约 3.0万吨，主要来自安得拉邦、马哈拉施特拉邦及古吉拉特邦。据悉，1日印度棉花公司（CCI）抛储约9.8万吨。具 体来看，2025/26年度S-6竞拍底价仍在51400卢比/坎地，折美金约73.40美分/磅。据悉，CCI新年度累计籽棉收购量 折皮棉在23.8万吨，较11月20日增加15.3万吨。此外，CCI上年度陈棉库存在14.5万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。国际方面，USDA大幅上调2025/26年度全球棉花产量，而全球棉花消费量仅微幅上调， 使得全球棉花期末 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 薛钧元 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3045元/吨，较前日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.20%；菜粕2601合约2423 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨，较前日变 动-10元/吨，现货基差M01+35，较前日变动-16；江苏地区豆粕现货3020元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨， 现货基差M01-25，较前日变动-6；广东地区豆粕现货价格3010元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差 M01-35，较前日变动-6。福建地区菜粕现货价格2600元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差 RM01+177，较前日变动+0。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 近期市场资讯，StoneX周一称，预计巴西2025/26年度大豆产量为1.772亿吨，较其11月份的预估值下调 0.9%。美国农业部周一公布的出口销售报告显示，10月23日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售 净增144.98万吨，较之前一周增加31%，较 ...

2025年12月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：等待拐点确认，暂时区间操作 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：缺乏新销售、美豆续跌，连粕调整 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：印度产量大幅增加 | 7 | | 棉花：供需双强 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，整体情绪偏强 | 11 | | 生猪：增量将至，产业逻辑回归 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 3 日 棕榈油：等待拐点确认，暂时区间操作 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,720 | 涨跌幅 0.79% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,710 | 涨跌幅 -0.11% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long - trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★☆☆, denoting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Corn**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a drive for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies. Most products are expected to fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant information and market changes [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans are in short - term sideways consolidation, with stable spot prices and increasing domestic warehouse receipts. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has declined from a high level. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight, bringing a relatively strong expectation to the overall soybean market. US soybeans are mainly affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and are expected to fluctuate strongly. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [2] 3.2 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are affected by South American weather and exports, and are expected to fluctuate strongly. The domestic soybean near - term shipping schedule crushing gross profit has deteriorated again, supporting soybean oil. The domestic soybean - palm oil price difference has adjusted from a high level. Malaysian palm oil had a slight production cut in November, but demand was weak, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. Due to flood problems in Southeast Asian producing areas, the supply side was disturbed, and prices stopped falling and rebounded. Overall, it is expected that soybean and palm oil will maintain range fluctuations [3] 3.3 Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Today's soybean futures opened high and closed low, with prices fluctuating weakly. Brazil's soybean planting rate is 78% with normal progress, while Argentina's is slow due to less rainfall. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the crushing volume has increased. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded to a high level, suppressing prices. The M2605 contract has risen to the upper edge of the shock platform, and the follow - up trend depends on US soybean exports and the impact of South American weather [5] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, the near - month main contract of rapeseed meal continued to decline with position reduction, and the main contract of rapeseed oil slightly declined. The arrival of Australian rapeseed in China eased the market's concern about the tight supply of rapeseed. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly in the process of de - stocking. The supply of rapeseed oil depends on Russian crushing and exports, and the demand benefits from the seasonal peak in the fourth quarter. Overall, the rapeseed series lacks trend - driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] 3.5 Corn - The spot price of corn in the northern port remains firm, and Northeast farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in lower - than - expected new grain supply. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the market favors high - quality Northeast grain, causing concerns about supply and transportation. The downstream corn inventory is generally very low, but the willingness to replenish inventory has increased. The new grain is still in the peak release period. In the short term, the Dalian corn futures 01 contract fluctuates at a high level, and the 03 and 05 contracts are waiting for a correction. In the medium term, the rebound range is limited, and a sharp rise in corn prices next year is not optimistic [7] 3.6 Live Pigs - The spot and futures prices of live pigs continue to weaken. With less than a month until the Winter Solstice, southern bacon - curing will gradually start, but there is also pressure on the supply side from the second - fattening of large hogs. The industry's average weight is still high, and there is a de - stocking process in the later stage. In the long - term, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a "double - bottom" feature, and it is expected that pig prices may have a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [8] 3.7 Eggs - The near - and far - month contracts of eggs show a differentiated trend, with a total increase of over 30,000 lots in positions. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in the laying - hen inventory in the medium - and long - term and have risen sharply. The near - month contracts are difficult to continue rising due to the premium of futures over spot prices and are trading the logic of price convergence. The current price difference between near - and far - month contracts is too large, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the performance of the spot market for near - month contracts [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the global soybean forecast annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom support for global soybeans. However, due to the relatively high level compared to the previous year, it is not enough to generate a highly profitable CBOT soybean futures planting profit situation. In the absence of significant problems in South American weather, the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to fluctuate. [3] - The new global soybean production has been marginally lowered, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the conditions of cost support and pressured crushing margins. [5] - The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market, and high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains high production, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips. [10] - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. It is recommended to sell at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [13] - From a fundamental perspective, although the peak season was not prosperous before, the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in futures prices has digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds have entered the market to push up cotton prices, but there is no strong driving force, and with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high. [18] - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting spot seasonal inventory accumulation and capacity reduction. In the short - term, there is a resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium - term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, capacity reduction will slow down, and with the end of seasonal stocking, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. The strategy is short - term long and medium - term short. [21] - The theoretical slaughter volume of pigs remains large, the completion rate of the slaughter plan of large - scale farms is average. Under the background of increased slaughter volume, the average weight is still high year - on - year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small farmers are slowly being released. The supply pressure remains, and there is still an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand is tepid, and only sporadic bacon - making activities have occurred in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated within a narrow range, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped by 30 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at 2990 yuan/ton. Soybean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal stocks increased last week, mainly due to high crushing volume, and the apparent consumption was flat week - on - week. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: As of last Thursday, the soybean planting area in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 89% of the expected area. The USDA predicted that the global soybean supply - demand pattern would shift from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, and the global soybean forecast annual inventory - to - sales ratio had dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently. [3] - **Strategy**: In the absence of significant problems in South American weather, the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to fluctuate. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the conditions of cost support and pressured crushing margins. [3][5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, increased by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days. [7] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market, and high - frequency export data has declined. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips. [10] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The new sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5460 - 5550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the new sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 78 yuan/ton. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield rate at the end of November was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year; sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year. [12] - **Strategy**: It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures increased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13800 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14980 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of CCIndex 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1180 yuan/ton. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared with last week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. [16] - **Strategy**: The probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high. [18] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price in the main production areas was flat at 3.06 yuan/jin, the price in Heishan was flat at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.04 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the downstream digestion speed was slow, most traders had little confidence in the future market, the inventory in the production link increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was fair. [20] - **Strategy**: The strategy is short - term long and medium - term short. [21] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with the mainstream price decreasing. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.2 yuan to 11.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan was flat at 11.44 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume of farmers increased gradually, but the demand increase was relatively limited, the market sales speed slowed down, and today farmers may reduce prices to sell, and the pig price may decline. [23] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short the near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. [24]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间12月2日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，原糖期货涨 1.42%报14.97美分/磅，棉花期货跌0.03%报64.61美分/磅，可可期货跌1.76%报5458.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货跌1.82%报372.80美分/磅。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side still has an impact, and the futures market has staged a rebound [1]. - The overall situation of the international soybean market remains relatively stable, and price changes are expected to be limited. In the medium to long - term, there is still price pressure on domestic soybean meal. Rapeseed meal is expected to face significant supply - side pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3045, 2848, and 2957 respectively, with price increases of 6, 13, and 10. For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2423, 2413, and 2479 respectively, with price increases of 0, 10, and 11. The spot basis and price differences of various varieties and regions are also presented [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 15 - spread, 59 - spread, and 91 - spread of soybean meal are 197, - 109, and - 88 respectively, with changes of - 7, 3, and 4. The 15 - spread, 59 - spread, and 91 - spread of rapeseed meal are 10, - 66, and 56 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 1, and 11 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The current spreads of soybean - rapeseed 01 and 09 are 622 and 478 respectively, and the oil - meal ratio of 01 is 2.722 [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the market has already fully reflected the positive factors. The U.S. soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future prices will be more affected by changes in soybean exports and crushing. South American supply - side impacts are increasing, with Brazil's new crop sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand. The oil refinery's operating rate continues to increase, with sufficient market supply and increasing提货量. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.2008 million tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean inventory was 7.3396 million tons, an increase of 189,700 tons (2.65%) from the previous week and 2.3661 million tons (47.57%) compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, an increase of 51,700 tons (4.49%) from the previous week and 368,700 tons (44.18%) compared to the same period last year. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, the refinery's operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply remains low, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **U.S. Soybeans**: There are limited bullish factors for U.S. soybeans recently, and the market is mainly in a volatile state. If exports do not improve significantly in the future, it is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state [7]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market, and due to the tightening of the South American market, price support is still relatively strong [7]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The current domestic soybean meal market has relatively loose supply and demand, which exerts pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures market. In the medium to long - term, price pressure still exists [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by rumors about Australian rapeseed, the rapeseed meal futures market has declined. The overall market demand is average, and it is expected that the supply - side pressure will still be significant [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Continue to make small - scale long positions [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - **Options**: Implement a strategy of selling wide - straddles [8].

宁证期货：短期棕榈油行情尚不明朗，暂时观望 市场预期印尼或将下调12月参考价及出口税，因此11月或有大量棕榈油船将延期至12月。出口税的下调 将导致棕榈油的成本下降，但是对于12月的出口量来说将会有显著提振，从而缓解近期产地累库的压 力。印尼棕榈油协会称苏门答腊岛洪水未对棕榈油生产造成重大影响，利多情绪消退。短期棕榈油行情 尚不明朗，暂时观望。 中辉期货：棕榈油后市关注调整逢低看多机会 棕榈油阶段性供需偏弱状态，11月马棕榈油前25日出口数据维持弱势，但较前20日跌幅略有回升。欧洲 议会支持将《欧盟零毁林法案》实施推迟一年，东南亚洪灾泛滥，引发市场对于进入棕榈油减产季节的 到来预期。期价昨日延续反弹收涨。但11月马棕榈油累库概率较大，追多需谨慎，原多单可考虑逐步止 盈离场，后市关注调整逢低看多机会。 12月2日盘中，棕榈油期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至8726.00元。截止收盘，棕榈油主力合约报 8720.00元，涨幅1.04%。 棕榈油期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 宁证期货 短期棕榈油行情尚不明朗，暂时观望 中辉期货 棕榈油后市关注调整逢低看多机会 南华期货 棕 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Southeast Asian floods have limited impact on palm oil, with potential negative expectation gaps [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - On December 1, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to November 28, 2025, at 8710, 8670, and 8570 respectively [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu increased by 50 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 8470, 8610, and 8620 respectively [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 30 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 10080, 10130, and 10330 respectively [1] Futures Data - On December 1, 2025, the spread between the main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 364, an increase of 18 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The spread between the main contracts of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1482, a decrease of 31 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 352; the soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 5469 to 5469; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 110 to 3855 [1] Important Information - Indonesia - Indonesia's GAPKI believes that floods in Sumatra have not had a significant impact on palm oil production [1] - From January to October 2025, Indonesia exported a total of 19.49 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 7.83% increase compared to the same period last year. In October, 1.91 million tons of palm oil were exported, up from 1.38 million tons in September [1] Important Information - Malaysia - According to SPPOMA, the average yield per unit of palm oil in Malaysia in November decreased by 0.2% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to ITS, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 19.7% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 12.8% [1] - According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 10% [1] Other Information - In September, the U.S. usage of soybean oil for biofuel production rose to 1.053 billion pounds, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the overall growth of Brazilian soybeans indicates that the yield potential in most regions will be lower than in the 2024/25 season. The current sowing progress is 86.97%, compared to 89.54% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 85.13% [2] - As of the week ending October 16, the net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.108 million tons, in line with expectations, up from 0.785 million tons the previous week; the net sales for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, down from 0.1 million tons the previous week. The export shipments of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.73 million tons, up from 0.693 million tons the previous week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose. The recent "inverse seasonal increase" is due to the combined effect of temporary and regional supply - demand mismatches and structural support factors. Although the Northeast production area faces pressure from concentrated grain sales and downstream demand has not recovered significantly, factors such as poor grain flow, low inventory in the trading and downstream sectors, and possible strengthening of farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a strong - oscillating price trend during the traditional supply - pressure period. The short - term upward space for corn prices is limited, and the market will focus on the grain - selling rhythm in production areas, the recovery process of downstream demand, and market sentiment changes [5][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Structure - As of the end of November, the price of the main corn contract rose from the previous low (2000 - 2100 yuan/ton) and then entered a high - level oscillation pattern due to lack of subsequent driving forces. Frequent snow and rain in the Northeast improved new - grain storage conditions, strengthened farmers' reluctance to sell, and restricted logistics, reducing the outflow of grain and supporting the corn price in the production area. However, downstream demand was weak, enterprise inventory was relatively sufficient, and losses in the breeding sector suppressed feed consumption, resulting in low market trading activity. The current price increase is supported by short - term supply - demand mismatches, and its sustainability and upward space need further observation [7]. - The overall futures - spot structure shows a Contango structure, with 01 at a discount to 05 and 05 at a discount to 09 [8]. 3.2 Market行情Analysis 3.2.1 Loose Supply in the Corn Market Lays the Foundation for Low Prices - The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". In 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 282 million tons, an increase of 11.13 million tons compared with 2024. The Northeast had significant production increases, while the North China's output was flat due to weather. Since July 1, the auction of imported corn and the increasing substitution of wheat for corn in feed use have jointly promoted the transformation of the corn market from a structurally tight balance to an overall loose one [11]. - The new - season corn planting cost in the Northeast in 2025/2026 is 1078 - 1379 yuan/mu, a decrease of 50 - 150 yuan/mu compared with the previous year. After adding other costs, the estimated port - collection price is around 2100 yuan/ton, but due to production and rent adjustments, it is reduced to 2000 yuan/ton, and the bottom of the corn futures price is in the range of 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Although the national corn output has increased, there are still prominent regional and structural contradictions. In North China, about 20 - 30 million tons of corn cannot be used for feed due to quality problems, increasing the demand for Northeast corn. Logistics bottlenecks have also exacerbated the supply - demand mismatch between production and sales areas. Currently, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast is about 19% and in North China is about 23%, and there will still be supply pressure from concentrated grain sales later [15]. - In October 2025, China imported 12.028 million tons of grain, and from January to October, the cumulative import was 118.775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8%. In October, the corn import volume was 359,000 tons, a significant increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year. From January to October, the corn import volume was 1.2928 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.15%. The import volumes of wheat, sorghum, and barley also decreased significantly, indicating that domestic supply basically meets demand and the proportion of imported corn in the market has shrunk rapidly [16][17]. - In 2025, the wheat output increased by about 4%, and due to weak downstream demand, wheat had a price advantage over corn, resulting in a substitution of 20 - 30 million tons in the feed sector. As the corn - wheat price difference reversed, the substitution effect of wheat weakened, and the diverted demand returned to the corn market [22]. 3.2.2 Downstream Demand Remains Rigid but Without Increment, with Limited Boosting Effect - Corn consumption is mainly concentrated in feed - breeding and deep - processing. The current downstream market shows "stable rigid demand but lack of significant growth momentum" [26]. - In the feed - breeding sector, since July, policies have been promoting the reduction of the inventory of breeding sows, but the process of capacity reduction is slow. As of September 2025, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, and the inventory of breeding sows was still high. The pig index has fallen below the breeding cost, and the pig futures and spot prices are expected to remain at the bottom, and the industry will gradually enter the capacity - reduction stage [27]. - In the deep - processing sector, after the new - season corn price dropped, deep - processing enterprises in the north and south generally turned from losses to profits. The deep - processing starch profits in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Shandong were about 81.92 yuan/ton, 41.04 yuan/ton, 33.06 yuan/ton, and - 76.06 yuan/ton respectively [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory at a Phased Low Increases Price Elasticity - As of November 21, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.4 million tons, and the inventory in Guangdong Port was 599,000 tons, both at a medium - low level in recent years. The decline in northern port inventory may be due to the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain and traders' reluctance to sell, while the decline in southern port inventory reflects reduced arrivals and stable downstream提货. The overall decline in port inventory weakens the buffering effect of the market, making price fluctuations more sensitive to supply and demand changes [33][37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose, and the recent "inverse seasonal increase" is due to temporary and regional supply - demand mismatches and structural support factors. The short - term upward space for corn prices is limited, and the market will focus on the grain - selling rhythm in production areas, the recovery process of downstream demand, and market sentiment changes [39].