Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on October 27, with all major contracts closing higher [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures rose by 2.19%, closing at 1,083.50 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 1.12%, closing at 428.00 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures saw a rise of 2.63%, closing at 526.00 cents per bushel [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: Soybean No. 1, Egg [1] - **Sell Recommendations**: None - **Hold Recommendations**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Live Pig [1] - **Neutral Recommendations**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] Core Views - The overall supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is not a major issue, but if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates and persists, the supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year [3]. - The prices of rapeseed oil are expected to face pressure due to the risk of inventory accumulation, while rapeseed meal may be boosted by the increase in oilseed prices in the short term [7]. - Corn prices are expected to continue their weak performance at the bottom, and the timing of the inflection point remains unclear [8]. - After the rebound of pig prices, a short - selling strategy is recommended, and there is a high probability of a second bottoming in the first half of next year [9]. - Egg prices may experience a decline in the medium term, and short - term risk avoidance is necessary [10]. Summary by Category Soybean No. 1 - The price of domestic soybeans has pulled back from its high, and there has been some profit - taking after the recent rebound. The spot market has active participants in acquisitions, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has decreased. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of domestic soybean spot and policies at home and abroad [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Last week, the futures contract of Dalian soybeans rebounded from the bottom with a large reduction in positions. The price of US soybeans jumped on Monday. The domestic supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but there may be a supply shortage in the first quarter of next year if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates. Attention should be paid to the APEC meeting at the end of the month [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the market sentiment for US agricultural product exports has improved. The price of US soybean futures has risen, and the import cost has increased slightly. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans is poor. The price of soybean oil is stronger than that of soybean meal and palm oil. Attention should be paid to the performance of the Brazilian soybean premium market [4]. - The futures price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate, and the price of palm oil may face pressure in the short term. In the long term, there is still support for palm oil prices, and medium - to long - term investors can consider buying vegetable oils at low prices [6]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relationships are the most important variables in the oilseed market. The inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills is expected to remain low, and the inventory of rapeseed oil in East China may increase. Rapeseed oil prices are expected to face pressure, while rapeseed meal may be boosted in the short term [7]. Corn - The futures price of Dalian corn decreased by 1.03% with an increase in positions. The new corn supply in the Northeast is stable, and the price rebound has ended. New grain in Jilin may be concentrated on the market again, and the price in Shandong continues to weaken. The downstream demand remains at a rigid level [8]. Live Pig - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded, and the futures price has followed suit. Although the supply pressure is still high, the price difference between fattening pigs has promoted second - round fattening and pen - holding behavior. After the rebound, a short - selling strategy is recommended [9]. Egg - The spot price of eggs has increased significantly, and the near - month futures contract has followed suit. The short - term risk of further price increases should be avoided, and in the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens. There is also potential pressure from cold - stored eggs on the spot market [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The fundamentals of the sugar futures market are under pressure. The 2025/26 sugar season in Central - South Brazil is expected to see a 3.1% increase in production to 4142 million tons, strengthening the global sugar market's oversupply expectations and pressuring raw sugar prices. In China, typhoons in Guangxi have led to low sugar content in sugarcane, potentially delaying the start of the new sugar season and limiting the increase in production. Although short - term cost support is evident, weak terminal procurement and slow spot inventory clearance keep the market in a weak and volatile pattern [3]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of new cotton production increase has been slightly revised. The purchase price is relatively firm, but the downstream peak season is weakening, and market confidence is insufficient. With the increasing supply pressure of new cotton, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure under the high - yield situation. Attention should be paid to the final production of Xinjiang cotton and Sino - US trade relations [14]. - **Apples**: Late Fuji apples in the northwestern and Shandong production areas are in the final stage of harvest. Previous continuous rainy weather has affected color development in the western regions and delayed bag - removing in Shandong. The large - scale supply of high - quality apples is postponed. As the Frost's Descent has passed, buyers have increased their purchasing efforts, mainly targeting Shandong apples. Most areas have slow or no storage progress. The long - term apple price may remain strong, but the main contract lags behind the far - month contracts due to potential shortages of deliverable goods [19]. - **Jujubes**: New - season jujubes are about to be harvested. With good weather in the production areas and high inventories of old jujubes, jujube prices may still face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the new jujube purchase and production determination [27]. 3. Summary by Category Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, SR01 closed at 5445 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.31%. Other contracts also showed different price trends and spreads. For example, SR01 - 05 was 48 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning, Kunming and different sugar futures contracts showed various changes. For instance, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 304 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 74 yuan/ton [9]. - **Import Prices**: Brazilian and Thai sugar import prices decreased both daily and weekly. The price differences between domestic locations (such as Rizhao, Liuzhou, Zhengzhou) and imported sugar also changed [12]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On October 27, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.18%) from the previous day. Cotton 05 and 09 also had price increases, while some棉纱 contracts showed significant price drops [15]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1263 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Other spreads such as cotton 01 - 05, cotton 05 - 09 also had their respective values and changes [16]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 27, 2025, AP01 closed at 8936 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous day and 0.80% from the previous week. Spot prices of different apple varieties in various regions remained mostly stable, with some showing small price changes [20]. - **Spreads and Basis**: AP01 - 05 was - 481 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 4.79% from the previous week. The main contract basis was - 46 yuan/ton, with a significant decline compared to the previous period [20]. Jujubes No specific price or spread data was provided in a tabular form, but the report mentioned that due to high old - jujube inventories and the approaching new - jujube harvest, jujube prices may face downward pressure [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to the weak fundamentals of oils and fats and the relatively weak macro - environment, oils and fats will fluctuate weakly. Soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction, its price mainly follows the overall trend of oils and fats, and the basis and monthly spread of soybean oil are running weakly, but the decline space is expected to be limited. US soybean oil is oscillating at a low level, and the bottom support may be at 48 cents per pound. - In the medium term, if the biodiesel policies of the US and Indonesia are implemented smoothly and the macro - environment improves, oils and fats have great potential for an upward trend and may show an oscillating upward movement, and soybean oil is also expected to follow the upward trend [37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Smooth Sino - US Negotiations, US Soybeans Expected to Be Exported to China - On October 26, the Sino - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day consultation in Kuala Lumpur. The US Treasury Secretary indicated that the US would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China, and China would purchase a large amount of US soybeans. The CBOT soybean series rose significantly on that day, while the domestic soybean series showed limited movements. - Currently, the US has an average tariff of 57.6% on China, and China has an average tariff of 32.6% on the US, with a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. If the two sides cancel reciprocal tariffs, China's tariff on US soybeans may be reduced to 13%, and if all previously imposed tariffs are cancelled, it could return to 3%. However, even at a 3% tariff, there is no crushing profit for near - term shipments in China this year. Whether China will purchase US soybeans in Q1 next year depends on tariff adjustments and CNF prices. - If a large - scale US soybean purchase agreement is reached, China will gradually purchase US soybeans at appropriate times and prices in the future. Although short - term crushing profit is not suitable, the supply expectation will be looser, and the soybean supply gap in Q1 next year may be repaired [3][4]. 2. India's Massive Increase in Soybean Oil Imports, Inflection Point of Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory Approaching - Since August this year, the Brazilian soybean crushing profit has been at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. Brazil's domestic crushing volume this year is lower than last year but slightly higher than the 5 - year average, and it is expected that there will be no significant increase in the future. From January to August, Brazil's soybean oil consumption was lower than last year, with a 10% year - on - year decrease in cumulative consumption, while the export volume increased by 15% year - on - year, with a 54% increase in exports to India, accounting for 70% of total exports. As of August, Brazil's soybean oil inventory was 520,000 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period. Argentina's exports of soybean oil to India increased by 11% year - on - year, and as of early September, its inventory was 220,000 tons, at a low level in the same period. The combined inventory of Brazil and Argentina is above the 5 - year average and higher than last year [10]. - Due to the low international soybean - palm oil price difference this year, India's import profit of soybean oil has increased, leading to a significant increase in imports, with a 42% year - on - year increase in cumulative imports in the 24/25 fiscal year as of September, approaching 4.4 million tons. It is expected that imports in October will remain at a relatively high level in the same period, and the annual imports may reach 4.8 million tons, meeting the market expectation of 4.4 - 4.9 million tons. The market also expects that India's edible oil imports will increase to over 17 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, with a limited year - on - year increase in soybean oil imports but still at a relatively high level, which is beneficial to soybean oil prices [19]. - As of September 29, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, and the market expects it to exceed 70%. Brazil's soybean sowing is faster than in previous years, with a sowing rate of 21.7% as of October 18, compared with 17.6% in the same period last year. The new - crop planting area is expected to increase, and the general expectation for the 2025/26 production is 175 - 179 million tons. - Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%. As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons or 3.25% from the previous week. The soybean arrival peak has passed, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to gradually decline slightly, with an inflection point likely to occur at the end of October. However, the overall supply of domestic soybean oil is still sufficient, and the basis and monthly spread are running weakly, but the decline space is expected to be limited [26]. 3. Positive Expectation of Oils and Fats Biodiesel Policy, Potential Upward Momentum Still Exists - In the US biodiesel sector, in June this year, the EPA proposed to increase the mandatory blending of biomass diesel in the US in 2026 to 5.61 billion gallons, much higher than the previous market expectation of 4.65 - 5.25 billion gallons, an increase of 2.26 billion gallons compared to 2025. If calculated based on this blending volume, the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel may exceed 7.4 million tons, with an increase of 1.4 - 1.5 million tons. In August, the EPA approved 63 full - exemption applications and 77 partial - exemption applications for SRE, with a total exemption of about 5.34 billion gallons of RINs from 2016 - 2024, but only the exemption quotas from 2023 - 2024 have actual compliance value. In September, the EPA proposed to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted under the SRE plan to large refineries. Although the final RVO and SRE plans are uncertain, it is certain that the US biodiesel demand will increase next year, and the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel will also increase [30]. - In Brazil, the National Energy Policy Council has increased the biodiesel blending ratio from 12% to 14% since March 2024 and plans to increase it by 1% annually. Originally, the B16 policy was expected to be implemented in March next year, which is estimated to bring an increase of 550,000 - 700,000 tons in biodiesel consumption and about 400,000 - 500,000 tons in soybean oil consumption. However, the Brazilian government may postpone the implementation of the B16 policy due to incomplete feasibility studies. As of August, the biodiesel blending rate was about 15.7%, slightly exceeding the B15 target. The price difference between biodiesel and diesel is narrowing but still negative, which means there is still profit in biodiesel production. Even if the B16 policy is postponed, the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel may still increase [31][32].

1. Pig Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Short - term pig prices are supported by secondary fattening, but long - term prices are not optimistic due to increasing supply pressure. Short - term disk operation may be strong, but the space is limited, and the medium - long - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve. It is advisable to wait for the current round of spot prices to stabilize before entering the market for reverse spread trading [2]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract increased by 35.71% to - 225. The prices of "Live Pig 2511" and "Live Pig 2601" decreased by 0.22% and 0.20% respectively. The main contract's open interest increased by 4.68% to 112,397, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 206 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices in Henan, Hunan increased, while those in Shandong, Liaoning, and Hebei decreased. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.29% to 162,425. The weekly white - striped pork price dropped by 100% to 0.00 yuan. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased by 24.12% and 22.97% respectively [2]. - **Supply - related Data**: The monthly inventory of fertile sows decreased by 0.10% to 4,038 million heads, and the weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.27% to 127.90 kg [2]. 2. Oil Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Malaysian palm oil futures are under pressure and may continue to decline, but there is a chance of stabilization after the release of the MPOB report. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to be under pressure. The impact of the US soybean oil's fundamental data has weakened, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is at a high level, but the basis may remain stable due to the oil mills' price - holding psychology [6]. Summary of Key Data - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan, the futures price of "P2601" decreased by 0.11%, the basis increased by 7.58%, and the import profit decreased by 6.42% [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The influence of the US soybean oil's fundamental data has declined. The domestic inventory is high, but the basis may be stable. The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,450 yuan, the futures price of "Y2601" increased by 0.07%, and the basis decreased by 2.29% [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.50% to 10,000 yuan, the futures price of "OI601" increased by 0.04%, and the basis decreased by 18.43% [6]. 3. Meal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The Sino - US negotiations are progressing positively, and the US soybean price is rebounding. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but the crushing profit has deteriorated, and the inventory is high. The spot price is expected to remain weak, and the meal lacks a continuous upward driving force. The disk has support around 2,900 [8]. Summary of Key Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.68% to 2,960 yuan, the futures price of "M2601" decreased by 0.17%, and the basis increased by 1250.00% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2,420 yuan, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased by 0.60%, and the basis increased by 33.80% [8]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,900 yuan, the futures price of the main contract of "Soybean No.1" decreased by 0.22%, and the basis increased by 4.23% [8]. 4. Corn Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The corn price in the Northeast is stable with a slight increase, while that in the North China is falling. The overall corn harvest progress exceeds 80%, and the selling pressure exists under a bumper harvest. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The disk is still weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the intensity of policy procurement [10]. Summary of Key Data - **Corn Futures**: The price of "Corn 2601" decreased by 0.33% to 2,133 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 104 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1.58% to 1,760,731 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The Shekou bulk grain price decreased by 0.44% to 2,280 yuan/ton, the north - south trade profit decreased by 25.64% to 29 yuan, and the import profit decreased by 3.15% to 298 yuan [10]. - **Processing Data**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 35.53% to 1,793 [10]. 5. Sugar Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The Brazilian sugar supply outlook is loose, and the raw sugar price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum, and the current bottom - shock and weak pattern may continue [14]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Market**: The price of "Sugar 2601" decreased by 0.20% to 5,446 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.04% to 48 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.84% to 408,160 [14]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased by 2.92% and 3.11% respectively. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased [14]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons [14]. 6. Cotton Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The downstream textile enterprises' demand for cotton raw materials is resilient, and the new cotton cost provides support. However, the cotton price faces hedging pressure, and the marginal driving force is decreasing. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [15]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of "Cotton 2605" and "Cotton 2601" decreased by 0.44% and 0.26% respectively. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 100.00% to 0 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the main contract decreased by 1.44% to 200,900 [15]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of "3128B" increased slightly, and the 3128B - 01 and 3128B - 05 spreads increased [15]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory increased by 68.4% to 172.02 million tons, and the industrial inventory decreased by 4.3% to 80.93 million tons [15]. 7. Egg Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The supply of eggs is sufficient, and the demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly in the first half of the week but may decline slightly in the second half due to strong supply and weak demand. The main contract's rebound faces resistance around 3,200 [17][18]. Summary of Key Data - **Futures Indicators**: The prices of "Egg 11 Contract" and "Egg 01 Contract" increased by 0.98% and 1.98% respectively. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 9.23% to - 426 [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.65% to 2.98 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 14.91% to - 102 [17]. - **Industry Data**: The price of day - old chicks increased by 1.92% to 2.65 yuan/feather, and the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 7.97% to 2.31 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Pig Industry - Short - term pig prices are rebounding due to secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are not optimistic. Short - term futures operations may be strong, but the upward space is limited, and the supply pressure in the medium - and long - term is difficult to ease [2]. Oil Industry - Malaysian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, and domestic palm oil futures may also be weak. US soybean oil is affected by related oils, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory, but there may be a price - holding mentality due to losses in oil mill crushing margins [6]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are rebounding, and domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. However, domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, and the spot price is difficult to improve. The meal lacks a continuous upward drive, but there is support at the cost end [8]. Corn Industry - Corn prices are still likely to be weak due to selling pressure from a bumper harvest. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is also under pressure [10]. Sugar Industry - Brazilian sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and the international raw sugar price is likely to be weak. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum and may be supported [14]. Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises have certain demand for cotton, and the new cotton cost provides support. However, there is hedging pressure, and short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [15]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is sufficient, and demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline, and the main contract may face pressure around 3200 [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 125 to - 225, with a change rate of 35.71%. Futures prices of contracts such as "pig 2511" and "pig 2601" declined slightly. The main contract's open interest increased by 4.68% to 112,397, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 206 [2]. Spot Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in Henan and Hunan rising, and those in Shandong, Liaoning, and Hebei falling [2]. Spot Indicators - Daily slaughter volume decreased by 1.29%, weekly white - strip prices dropped by 100%, and weekly self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased by 24.12% and 22.97% respectively. The monthly inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 0.10% to 40.38 million heads [2]. Oil Industry Palm Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, and domestic Dalian palm oil futures may also seek support in the range of 8900 - 9000 yuan [6]. Soybean Oil - US soybean oil is affected by related oils, and domestic soybean oil inventory is at a high level, but there may be a price - holding mentality due to losses in oil mill crushing margins [6]. Canola Oil - The spot price of canola oil decreased slightly, and the basis also declined [6]. Spreads - Spreads such as the three - oil inter - period spread and the palm oil inter - period spread showed different changes [6]. Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.68%, the futures price decreased slightly, and the basis increased significantly. The crushing margins of imported soybeans from Argentina and Brazil showed different trends [8]. Rapeseed Meal - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.41%, the futures price decreased, and the basis increased. The crushing margin of imported rapeseed from Canada decreased [8]. Soybeans - The spot and futures prices of soybeans in different regions changed slightly, and the basis also changed accordingly [8]. Spreads - Spreads such as the soybean meal inter - period spread and the oil - meal ratio showed different changes [8]. Corn Industry Corn - The futures price of corn decreased slightly, the basis increased, and the north - south trade profit and import profit decreased [10]. Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch decreased, the basis increased, and the profit of Shandong starch increased [10]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The futures prices of sugar contracts such as "sugar 2601" and "sugar 2605" decreased slightly, and the open interest and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [14]. Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, and the basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar decreased, and the price differences with domestic sugar also changed [14]. Industry Situation - National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased significantly. Sugar imports increased by 37.50% [14]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The futures prices of cotton contracts such as "cotton 2605" and "cotton 2601" decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased [15]. Spot Market - Spot prices such as the Xinjiang arrival price and the CC Index increased slightly, and the price differences with futures contracts also changed [15]. Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased significantly, industrial inventory decreased, and imports increased by 42.9% [15]. Egg Industry Futures and Spot Indicators - Futures prices of egg contracts such as "egg 11" and "egg 01" increased, the spot price of eggs increased, and the basis and spreads changed [17]. Related Indicators - The price of egg - laying chicks increased, the price of culled hens decreased, and the egg - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural product market shows mixed trends. Eggs are rising, while dates are falling sharply. The rebound of live pigs is limited, and other products such as soybean meal, cotton, etc., each have their own characteristics and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The main contract 2512 continued to rise strongly, driven by improved demand and increased long - position positions. Spot prices increased due to factors like improved demand after cooling weather, lower inventory, and increased culling of old chickens. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2975 and resistance at 3082 [2]. Dates - The main contract 2601 slumped due to increased supply from new dates and sufficient old - date stocks. Inventory increased, and technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 10660 and resistance at 11000 [3]. Soybean Meal - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after a big rise, affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiation news. Domestic factors such as poor crushing profits, slow forward purchasing, and high downstream demand supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2929 and resistance at 2960 [5]. Cotton - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after continuous rises. New cotton acquisition costs increased, downstream spinning mills' operating rates rose, and import volume was low. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 13435 and resistance at 13610 [7]. Corn - The main contract 2601 oscillated and closed down, with a sideways trend due to mixed factors. Northeast new grain harvest and downstream replenishment situation, as well as price trends in North China, affected the price. Technically, it is in consolidation. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2128 and resistance at 2150 [9]. Live Pigs - The main contract 2601 first declined and then rose, with an oscillating trend. Factors such as the entry of second - fattening and increased frozen - product storage supported the price, but high inventory limited the rebound. Technically, it is oscillating. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 12000 and resistance at 12300 [11]. Apples - The main contract 2601 continued to rise oscillatingly. Different production areas had different market conditions, and concerns about quality supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8728 and resistance at 8900 [13]. Palm Oil - The main contract 2601 continued to fall, affected by increased Malaysian palm oil production and narrowing export growth. Domestically, sufficient arrivals also pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 9080 and resistance at 9180 [16]. Sugar - The main contract 2601 fell slightly after a sharp rise. Import pressure decreased, but new sugar supply increased, limiting the rebound. Technically, the rebound trend is not yet curbed. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 5428 and resistance at 5470 [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows a downward trend, particularly in red dates, with significant fluctuations in prices and production estimates indicating a potential decrease in output compared to previous years [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for red date futures opened at 11,200.00 CNY/ton, experiencing a price drop of approximately 3.34% during the trading session [1] - The highest price reached was 11,215.00 CNY, while the lowest was 10,840.00 CNY [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of October 23, physical inventory in 36 sample points was reported at 9,103 tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 94 tons and a year-on-year increase of 109.22% [1] - Due to climatic conditions, the maturity period for Xinjiang red dates is earlier than last year, with some orchards already harvesting before the frost period [1] - Preliminary estimates suggest a production decrease of 5-10% compared to 2022 and a 20-25% decrease compared to 2024, with new season production expected to be between 560,000 to 620,000 tons [1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Dalian Futures indicates that future price movements will depend on new season production, quality, and opening prices, with potential for prices to rise if production decreases are confirmed and consumption recovers [1] - East Securities Futures highlights that the upcoming week is critical for determining the acquisition prices before harvesting, suggesting a cautious approach until prices stabilize [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index tries to attack upward, while in the agricultural product market, different varieties have different price trends and supply - demand situations; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical risks all have an impact on prices [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the stock index first declined and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900 - point mark. The main stock index futures contracts all rebounded, and trading volume and open interest increased. The market is expected to try to attack upward after the positive news [20][21]. Financial Options - The stock market shows a mixed trend, and the trading volume of the market remains at around 1.6 trillion yuan. Most option varieties have a decreasing trading volume, and the implied volatility of most options remains volatile. Option sellers need to be cautious when building positions [23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity did not change the balanced and loose capital situation. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The CBOT soybean index rose, but the international soybean market still faces pressure. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment, and the supply pressure is expected to increase, with the price likely to fall. It is recommended to wait and see, conduct positive arbitrage for M11 - 1, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [27][28][29]. Sugar - The international sugar price is in a weak trend with the main contract breaking through the previous low. The domestic sugar price is relatively more resistant to decline in the short term. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices, short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar, and sell out - of - the - money call options [30][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - The short - term market lacks driving factors and is in a weak and volatile state. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [33][35]. Corn and Corn Starch - The US corn futures rebounded, but the domestic new grain supply is increasing, and the port and North China prices are falling. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the December contract, close long positions for the January contract, and wait for the dips to go long for the May and July contracts [36][38]. Live Hogs - The live hog market still has supply pressure, and the price is slightly falling. It is recommended to short a small amount, conduct reverse arbitrage for LH15, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39][40]. Peanuts - The peanut market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the January and May contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - The egg inventory is slowly being depleted, and the price is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see for other strategies [44][46]. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate of apples is poor, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, conduct long - November and short - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [48][50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton purchase progress is accelerating, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in a general state during the peak season. It is recommended to go long on the dips, conduct short - November and long - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [51][52][54]. Black Metals Steel - In the fourth quarter, there are insufficient construction projects, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. The steel demand is recovering, and the inventory is transferred from the factory to the social level. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low prices, and wait and see for options [57][58]. Coking Coal and Coke - The profitability of steel mills is poor, which restricts the upward space of coking coal and coke. The coking coal supply is affected by safety supervision, and the price is in a volatile state. It is recommended to be cautious about long positions, pay attention to the risk of decline, and wait and see for other strategies [59][60][61]. Iron Ore - A mid - term bearish view is taken. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the supply is increasing while the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to be bearish on the mid - term and wait and see for other strategies [62][63]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys follow the market to rebound. After the low - valuation repair, they can still be used as short - side configurations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon is at a high level, and the demand has inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait for the low - valuation repair and then short, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [63][64]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks are fluctuating, and gold and silver prices have temporarily stabilized. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [66][67]. Copper - The macro - sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on the dips. The copper supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is in a general state. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. Alumina - The supply side has marginal changes, and the price has a narrow - range rebound. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more obvious, and some producers may reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, and wait and see for other strategies [72][73][74]. Aluminum - The macro - sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and the medium - term upward trend of aluminum remains unchanged. Overseas aluminum production is expected to decrease, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [76][78][80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - sentiment is improving, and the aluminum alloy is in an upward - oscillating channel. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [80][81][83]. Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas inventory is low. The export window is open. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual export volume [84][86][87]. Lead - Pay attention to the impact of capital on the lead price. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand is improving. There may be a short - term squeeze on the near - month contract. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on the dips in the long term [88][89][90]. Nickel - The inventory accumulation reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [91][92]. Stainless Steel - The continuous decline of warehouse receipts boosts the near - month contract. The production efficiency of stainless steel enterprises has improved, and project construction is accelerating [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be in a weak or fluctuating state, while others are affected by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, trade relations, and policies [5][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1.油脂 - **观点**：继续偏弱运行，关注近期低点支撑有效性，中期展望为豆油、棕油、菜油均震荡偏弱 [5]. - **逻辑**：宏观上，美国联邦政府“停摆”，中美贸易谈判将再度进行，市场对美联储降息预期强等；产业端，美豆数据暂停更新，收获进度达7层，单产下调概率大，巴西新季大豆预期产量增3.6%，种植进度21.7%，国内进口大豆到港量或处高位，豆油去库慢；马棕10月或累库，印尼生柴需求预期增加，印度植物油进口或季节性下降；10月后国内菜油库存或止降回升 [5]. 3.1.2.蛋白粕 - **观点**：空头获利了结，双粕低位大幅反弹，中期展望为豆粕、菜粕震荡 [6]. - **逻辑**：国际上，中美月底会晤前将在马来磋商，阿根廷挤占美豆出口份额，巴西大豆对华出口增加，巴西新作播种进度同比偏快；国内方面，市场采购美豆预期存变数，空头获利了结引发反弹，美豆进口增长预期叠加现实供应压力，期现货价格反弹高度有限，长期四季度国内豆粕供应充足，2026年一季度或有少量缺口，需求端豆粕消费刚需或稳中有增，水产消费淡季菜粕弱于豆粕 [6]. 3.1.3.玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：现货涨跌不一，期货震荡企稳，中期展望为震荡 [7]. - **逻辑**：国内玉米价格涨跌互现，东北丰产预期强，面临卖压冲击，华北受降雨影响，粮质霉变风险高，收割进度受扰，销区用粮企业刚需补库；短期反弹有港口缺货、直属库收购等因素，卖压驱动未完全释放，维持震荡偏弱看法，长期库存趋紧，市场短空长多 [9]. 3.1.4.生猪 - **观点**：下游抵触高价，猪价震荡，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [10]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期二育少量入场，10月出栏量环比增5%，中期四季度出栏量预计增加，长期能繁母猪产能开始去化；需求为消费淡季，肉猪比价下跌；库存二育小幅累库；短期供需宽松，猪周期下行，长期产能去化后供应压力有望减轻 [10]. 3.1.5.天然橡胶 - **观点**：继续震荡整理运行，中期展望为震荡 [11]. - **逻辑**：天胶阶段性见底和估值偏低带来超跌反弹，RU抛储超预期，01合约仍可能炒作，NR标胶进口量低、仓单少、原料坚挺；基本面无新增信息，供应压力不大，需求端四季度轮胎出口走弱预期内，价格单边难把控，关注增仓上涨持续性 [13]. 3.1.6.合成橡胶 - **观点**：盘面延续窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [15]. - **逻辑**：今年产量偏高是盘面压力，下游需求增加但增速不及产量，社会库存高位；原料丁二烯价格上周跌后整理，宏观消息和刚需买盘提振成交气氛 [15]. 3.1.7.棉花 - **观点**：成本提升抬高郑棉估值，关注贸易磋商动态，中期展望为震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：国庆前棉价下行，节后跌势放缓反弹，原因一是新疆棉花产量预估下调，二是籽棉收购价坚挺推高皮棉加工成本；短期棉价易涨难跌，四季度上涨后有回调风险，关注中美贸易谈判 [17]. 3.1.8.白糖 - **观点**：外弱内强，糖价低位盘整，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [19]. - **逻辑**：中长期25/26榨季全球糖市供应过剩，主产国产量预计增加，糖价熊市格局；短期巴西中南部食糖产量下降但出口增加，国内销量一般，库存同比提高，进口高值，外盘走低，内盘抗跌，后续北半球新糖供应期糖价走弱压力增大 [19]. 3.1.9.纸浆 - **观点**：期货连续反弹，现货维持弱势，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [20]. - **逻辑**：期货延续反弹，现货清淡，十一后期货底部震荡；供需无明显利多，市场关注纸浆虚实结合比和年底集中注销；基本面难大涨，欧洲消费疲弱，中国刚需稳定，追涨情绪不高，国内经济偏弱，需警惕废纸系影响，01合约低位震荡，偏空交易 [20]. 3.1.10.双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸维持窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [21]. - **逻辑**：盘面在4200元一线震荡，10月底招标旺季，现货重心持稳；纸厂排产情况不一，经销商稳价出货，市场订单跟进不足，下游印厂刚需采买，交投不活跃；成本端木浆市场少数下跌，招标季纸价有底部支撑，但华南新产能放量或牵制纸价 [22]. 3.1.11.原木 - **观点**：原木震荡运行，中期展望为震荡 [24]. - **逻辑**：特别港务费出台后盘面短期提振，海运费上涨提高估值，但现货10月末有下调预期；基本面偏弱，重庆国产材交割利空，港口出库量回落，库存累库；四季度新西兰原木进口季节性增长，库存绝对水平不低，房地产需求疲软，交割面暂无明显驱动，关注新西兰发运情况 [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 - The report lists different product categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3.评级标准 - The report provides a rating standard including "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease 1 - 2 standard deviations), "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations), with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [178]. 3.4.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**：Not provided with specific data. - **特色指数**：The "商品20指数" is 2546.54, up 0.58%; the "工业品指数" is 2229.03, up 1.12%; the "PPI商品指数" is 1342.15, up 0.86% [180]. - **板块指数**：The "农产品指数" on 2025 - 10 - 23 is 928.25, with a daily increase of 0.45%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.42%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.77% [181].