Economic Data Summary - April industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value [1] - April retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value [1] - Fixed asset investment in the first four months increased by 4.0% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1] - Real estate development investment in the first four months saw a year-on-year decline of 10.3%, widening from the previous decline of 9.9% [1] Economic Shortcomings - Fixed asset investment growth is low and shows signs of further deceleration, indicating insufficient capital formation for total demand [2] - Real estate market shows signs of regression, with prices not stabilizing yet [2] - The overall price level in April was lower than in March, with nominal GDP growth around 4.4%, indicating a low price center [2] Real Estate Market Insights - In April, the sales area of second-hand houses in 18 key cities decreased by 10.8% month-on-month, significantly weaker than seasonal averages [2] - Concerns about tariffs and declining exports may lead to further downward pressure on the real estate market [5] Stock Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index flat, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.08% and 0.33% respectively [8] - The total market turnover was 111.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2 billion yuan from the previous day [8] - The port and shipping sector saw significant gains, with several stocks hitting the limit up [8] Investment Trends - Major asset restructuring transactions have surged, with a year-on-year increase of 1160% in transaction volume [8] - The consumer sector is experiencing high growth, particularly in new consumption trends [10] Corporate Developments - Huawei launched two new HarmonyOS computers, indicating a push in the consumer electronics market [13] - The EU has approved a 150 billion euro arms loan plan, reflecting increased military spending [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The consumer market has shown significant structural differentiation and opportunities. New consumption sectors such as trendy toys, pet economy, and AI+ have emerged, while traditional sectors like liquor have faced challenges due to economic pressure [21]. - Different stages of the consumer market are characterized by distinct investment styles. For example, in the core - asset - dominated stage, low - turnover and growth - style consumer funds outperformed; in the market - oscillation stage, value - style funds with flexible and diversified holdings had an edge [36][57]. - The performance of consumer funds is closely related to macro - economic conditions, policy support, and market sentiment. In weak market environments, dividend - value style funds with strong stock - picking abilities tend to perform better [70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption Market Historical Review - **Core Asset Dominated (20190101 - 20210210)**: The market trended upward. The relaxation of domestic policies, inflow of foreign capital, and economic recovery promoted investment opportunities in the consumer sector, especially in the liquor industry. The CSI Liquor Index rose over 350% [13]. - **Repeated Oscillation (20210218 - 20230116)**: Factors such as the pandemic, macro - economic pressure, and geopolitical issues led to market oscillations. There were structural rotation opportunities in high - end consumption, pig farming, and other sectors [13]. - **Oscillation Decline (20230117 - 20240202)**: The market first rose and then declined. The weak economic recovery and low consumer confidence led to a decline in the consumer industry, especially in the real - estate post - cycle and food and beverage industries. The CSI Liquor Index fell nearly 38% [21]. - **New Consumption Dominated (20240205 - 20250415)**: The consumer market showed structural differentiation. New consumption sectors such as trendy toys, pet economy, and AI+ performed well, while the liquor industry still faced pressure. The CSI Liquor Index fell 3.8%, and the Xinhua SHS Emerging Consumption Index rose 53% [21]. 3.2 Consumption Fund Holdings - **Stock - holding Proportion**: The proportion of liquor holdings in consumer funds reached a peak in 2023 (about 41%) and then declined to about 30% in 2024. The proportion of new - consumption holdings increased from about 10% in 2019 to 25.7% at the end of 2024 [29]. - **Stock - holding Contribution**: Liquor has been the main source of continuous contribution to consumer funds since 2019. New - consumption stocks have made significant contributions since 2024, with companies like Pop Mart leading the way [29]. - **HK Stock Holdings**: Consumer funds' holdings of HK stocks are mainly concentrated in the new - consumption field. The proportion of HK - stock holdings increased in 2020 and 2024, mainly due to the layout of new consumption [33]. 3.3 Fund Return Sources and Portraits - **Stage One (20190101 - 20210210)**: High - growth consumer funds with low turnover and high retention of heavy - position stocks outperformed. The expansion of liquor channels and the upgrade of price ranges drove the growth of the consumer market [36]. - **Stage Two (20210218 - 20230116)**: Funds with a balanced and slightly value - oriented style and flexible and diversified holdings performed better. The moderate increase in CPI and the decline in PPI benefited the consumer industry, and value - type consumer stocks showed high defensive properties [57]. - **Stage Three (20230117 - 20240202)**: Funds with a deep - value style and strong alpha capabilities outperformed. In a weak market environment, low - volatility, high - dividend stocks became a safe haven for funds [70]. - **Stage Four (20240205 - 20250411)**: The elasticity and stock - picking ability of consumer funds in the new - consumption field became the key to returns. Traditional companies' second - growth curves and the growth of new consumption drove the performance of consumer funds [84]. 3.4 Consumption ETF Funds - **A股 - related ETFs**: There are ETF funds corresponding to 5 A - share consumer comprehensive indices, with the largest number (3) and total scale (27 billion yuan) corresponding to the CSI Consumption 50 Index [95]. - **港股 - related ETFs**: There are ETF funds corresponding to 5 HK - stock consumer comprehensive indices, with the largest number (4) corresponding to the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index and the largest total scale (33.5 billion yuan) corresponding to the Hang Seng Consumption Index [95].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of investment opportunities in China, highlighting the transition from traditional investment-driven sectors to innovation-driven industries, particularly in the context of the new economic landscape shaped by artificial intelligence and technological advancements [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Economic Transition - In 2003, the "Five Golden Flowers" represented key investment sectors in China, driven by rapid urbanization and industrialization, with public funds successfully identifying value in steel, automotive, petrochemical, electricity, and banking [1]. - The current economic environment has shifted from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth, with significant changes in economic speed, core drivers, industry trends, and policy directions [2]. Group 2: Emerging Sectors and Investment Focus - Potential new sectors that may emerge as the "Five Golden Flowers" in the current economic context include semiconductors, AI, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and new consumption [2][3]. - The financial market's risk appetite has increased, and the government emphasizes balancing quality improvement with total volume growth, creating a stable environment for innovation [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - Fund managers are focusing on AI-enabled sectors such as electronics, internet, software, automotive, and machinery, driven by a surge in automation demand [5]. - The rise of domestic technology and the push for self-sufficiency in computing power are seen as critical investment opportunities, particularly in the context of global trade tensions [6]. - New consumption patterns and innovative business models are emerging, driven by changes in consumer demographics and preferences, presenting growth opportunities for companies that adapt to these trends [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The investment landscape is characterized by the need to navigate potential disruptions in industry competition due to new technologies, as well as the risk of speculative bubbles in certain sectors [8]. - Identifying genuine growth versus speculative hype is crucial, with a focus on companies that demonstrate real consumer demand and sustainable business models [9]. Group 5: Future of Fund Management - The introduction of the "Public Fund High-Quality Development Action Plan" is expected to reshape the investment ecosystem, emphasizing absolute valuation and long-term performance metrics [10][11]. - Fund managers will increasingly prioritize shareholder returns, focusing on cash flow, competitive advantages, and dividend capabilities in their investment strategies [11].

3月，港股上市的"雪王"创纪录成为新一代港股冻资王，上市后不到两个月股价翻番；去年上市的老铺 黄金3月5日以每股600港元的价格超越腾讯后，股价一路狂飙最高到881港元，上市不到一年股价涨幅最 高达20倍；2020年在港股IPO的泡泡玛特，最低谷时期股价曾跌落至9.4港元，但从2024年开始，国内消 费回暖、海外市场爆发，泡泡玛特营收大涨，股价一度突破200港元，最新市值超2600亿港元。 今年以来，港股市场涌现出多个消费类明星企业，其中蜜雪集团、老铺黄金、泡泡玛特被市场称为"新 消费三姐妹"，3家公司的市值均超千亿港元，其亮丽的表现也给市场带足了惊喜。 它们的崛起，不仅标志着新消费企业的韧性，更折射出消费投资的重大转折——从低谷挣扎到涅槃重 生。过去几年，消费赛道经历了资本寒冬：A股IPO收紧、消费需求疲软、机构资金转向硬科技，消费 投资一度被边缘化，消费基金募资难、项目退出难，部分机构甚至解散消费投资团队，垂直消费类投资 机构面临生存危机。 港股"新消费三姐妹"背后不乏红杉、高瓴等知名机构，也有诸如美团龙珠等产业资本，还有聚焦消费行 业的垂直机构，如蜂巧资本、黑蚁资本等。而这些公司的优异市场表现，也给一级 ...

- The report defines a market timing system using the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) of the Wind All A Index to distinguish the overall market environment[2][8][13] - The distance between the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average has narrowed from -2.80% to -1.33%, indicating the market is in a volatile state[2][8][13] - The industry allocation model recommends sectors such as Hang Seng Medical, Hong Kong automotive, and new consumption industries from a mid-term perspective[2][3][9] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on information innovation and communication[2][3][9] - The Wind All A Index's overall PE is around the 60th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is around the 10th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][9] - The position management model suggests an absolute return product with Wind All A as the main stock allocation should have a 50% position[3][9] - The market is expected to continue to decline in trading volume, with a potential rebound when the volume shrinks to around 900 billion[2][3][9] Model Backtest Results - The distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages is -1.33%[2][8][13] - The Wind All A Index's PE is at the 60th percentile[3][9] - The Wind All A Index's PB is at the 10th percentile[3][9] - The recommended position for absolute return products is 50%[3][9]

北京知未私募基金管理有限公司官方订阅号。 以下文章来源于知未基金 ，作者非完全进化体 知未基金 . 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 非完全进化体 来源：雪球 上一篇我们谈到战略聚焦核心资产，有投资者问这是不是意味着我们弱化了"小生意"的公司筛选 标准。本篇基于这一概念继续展开论述我们的投资逻辑。 之前我们也谈过，"小生意"不等于"中小市值"，其核心在于生意模式与国计民生的弱相关性。比 如白酒、饮料、家电、建材、汽车零部件包括新消费、文化传媒游戏等能够产生大市值公司的行 业，在我们看来也都属于"小生意"。 雪球三分法是雪球基于"长期投资+资产配置"推出的基金配置理念，通过资产分散、市场分 散、时机分散这三大分散进行基金长期投资，从而实现投资收益来源多元化和风险分散化。 从战略视角来看，未来最为明确且具备长期成长空间的投资方向之一是：基于中国科技、制造优 势不断拓展全球市场的公司。而"小生意"的商业属性，较大幅度降低了在拓展全球市场时的外部 风险，天然具有更高的全球市场接受度。 不可否认，展现中国科技优势与小生意之间存在一定矛盾关系。尤其是一些关乎国家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of new consumption trends in China, particularly among younger consumers, and contrasts them with traditional consumption patterns, emphasizing the sustainability and structural nature of these new demands [3][4][6]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption trends, represented by products like blind boxes and cultural creative goods, are rapidly gaining popularity among younger consumers, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [3][4]. - The demand for new consumption is driven by both functional and emotional value, with consumers seeking products that enhance their quality of life and provide emotional satisfaction [5][6]. - The current economic environment has led to a structural change in consumer demand, where consumers are willing to pay more for products that offer higher functionality and emotional value [6][7]. Group 2: Traditional Consumption - Traditional consumption categories such as liquor, food, and household appliances continue to have stable demand due to their essential nature, although their growth may slow down as market saturation occurs [7][8]. - The value provided by traditional consumption remains significant, even if the growth rate declines, as consumers' expectations for a better quality of life persist [7][8]. - Traditional brands can learn from new consumption trends to better engage with younger consumers and adapt their marketing strategies [9][10]. Group 3: Sustainability of Consumption Trends - The sustainability of new consumption trends is supported by historical patterns, where similar trends have emerged in the past, indicating a long-term demand for collectible and emotionally resonant products [6][8]. - The success of new consumption products often depends on their social attributes and the ability to create a strong brand connection with consumers, which can lead to sustained growth [10][11]. - The potential for cross-generational appeal exists if the products maintain their relevance and adapt to changing consumer preferences over time [11][12]. Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions in Consumer Brands - Mergers and acquisitions can enhance competitive strength in the consumer sector, especially in a stable market where companies seek new growth avenues [18][19]. - Successful acquisitions depend on the long-term profitability of the acquired business and the ability to integrate resources without compromising existing operations [20][21]. - The strategic alignment of acquired brands with the parent company's goals can lead to sustained growth and market expansion [19][21].

超配价值和低位成长 ——行业配置主线探讨 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 15 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 ‹ 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略专题报告（深度 Table_ReportType] ） | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | 联系电话：+86 13585643916 | | 邮 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | | 李畅 策略分析师 | 执业编号：S1500523070001 联系电话：+86 18817552575 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com [超配价值和低位成长 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 15 日 核心结论： ➢ 5 月之后，随着年报、一季报披露窗口期已过，中美关税谈判取得一定实 质性进展，市场风险偏好可能会有所回升，经验上部分投资者会重新关 注成长。部分国际科技巨头发布的一季度数据均显示资本开支显著增 加、鸿蒙 P ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growing preference of fund managers for new consumption stocks over traditional consumption stocks, which remain relatively sluggish in performance [1][2][5] - New consumption stocks have shown significant rebounds, with specific examples including Meitu's 33% increase, Xindong's 28% rise, and Smoore International's 75% surge, while traditional consumption funds have underperformed [2][3] - The investment landscape for new consumption is characterized by a scattered distribution of stocks, making research more time-consuming and complex compared to traditional consumption sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The rising trend in the new consumption sector is attracting substantial institutional funds, driven by a younger consumer base that values experience and innovation [5][6][7] - Fund managers are increasingly optimistic about new consumption, as evidenced by significant holdings in companies like Bubble Mart and Meixue Group, which reflect a shift towards mid-to-high-end domestic brands [6][7] - The market's focus on new consumption is attributed to its emphasis on consumer experience and the emergence of leading brands in the capital market, which fosters a collective investment approach [7]

5月份，增量政策可能不多，但储备政策不少，政策定力仍然很强，目标是应对关税的冲击。因此，市 场在度过业绩风险后仍然会关注科技成长主题。内需相关板块仍会是国内政策的首要着力点，低利率环 境下业绩稳定的高股息板块仍有配置价值。除此以外，在可能出现的关税缓和过程中，那些品牌力强、 定价能力强、替代难度大的公司有望迎来估值的修复。 谭小兵：看好有边际变化的成长股 4月份市场呈现V字形走势，内需与红利好于成长股。展望5月份，进入业绩真空期，市场对指数填补之 后能否继续上攻还是存在分歧，个人相对还是偏乐观：一方面是国内政策会逐步兑现；另一方面中美谈 判或拉开序幕，这有利于修复市场的风险偏好。方向上看好有边际变化的成长股。 回顾4月，美国"对等关税"来袭，全球市场剧烈波动，就中国资产来看，月内A股和港股主要指数收 跌。进入5月，尽管外部不确定性因素依然存在，但中美关税谈判窗口有望来临，国内一揽子增量政策 也在加速落地，为国内股市稳定发展带来有力支撑。 展望后市，市场将会如何演绎？哪些投资机会值得关注？一起来看看长城基金权益基金经理们的观点吧 ~ 杨建华：持续关注关税政策 展望5月，关税政策及中美贸易谈判仍将会成为左右市场的 ...