1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to recover, while both domestic stocks and bonds are weak. The US economic data shows structural differentiation, with the market pricing an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. In China, policies aim to boost consumption, but the A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile, aluminum prices are expected to be favorable, alumina will continue its weak trend, and other metals and industrial products also have their respective market trends based on supply - demand and macro - economic factors [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: US data is structurally differentiated. Initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.96 million. Durable goods and core capital goods orders in September increased by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumption and stagnant economic activity. The market prices an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut, with the US dollar index falling and copper, gold, and crude oil prices rising [2]. - Domestic: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to develop e - commerce and integrate AI into the consumer goods industry. The A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction. The 10Y and 30Y treasury bond yields are 1.83% and 2.19% respectively [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures soared 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Weak US economic data and the possible Fed chair change support interest rate cut expectations. The probability of a December interest rate cut is 85%. Short - term, gold and silver prices are expected to be strongly volatile. Platinum and palladium futures can be bought at low prices [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper futures rose, and LME copper approached the $11,000 resistance level. The spot market had weak trading. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumer spending and rising input costs. US PPI data is mild, and overseas institutions predict a decline in core PCE. Chile's Codelco raised the long - term copper price for China in 2026. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with resistance at $11,000 - $11,200 [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum futures rose slightly, and LME aluminum rose 2.25%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased. US economic data shows labor market resilience but also potential weakness. The market's expectation of Fed easing remains unchanged. Aluminum prices are expected to be favorable [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, alumina futures fell 0.37%. The supply - demand situation has limited changes, and the oversupply suppresses prices. The futures price is below the average cost, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, cast aluminum alloy futures fell slightly. The aluminum price has stabilized, and the cast aluminum market is in a state of stop - falling and shock. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost provides good support [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc futures rose at night. The spot market was weak. The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US reduced interest rate cut expectations, but the UK's tax - increase plan weakened the US dollar, which is beneficial to zinc prices. The supply pressure is gradually improving, but the market lacks the power for continuous rise, and zinc prices are expected to be widely volatile [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead futures were weakly volatile. The decline of LME lead dragged down Shanghai lead. The reopening of the lead ingot import window suppresses prices, but cost support and regional supply shortages limit the decline. Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin futures rose at night. The weakening of the US dollar and the political instability in the DRC support tin prices. However, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is low, and inventory is expected to increase. With the approaching Fed meeting, the market sentiment may fluctuate, so be cautious about chasing up prices [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon futures were narrowly volatile. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has risen, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, lithium carbonate prices were widely volatile. The raw material prices rose, and the main contract has switched to 2605. The market has a strong long - short game, and lithium prices are expected to be widely volatile [17]. 3.12 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices were volatile. The market expects an 82% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. The spot market has good inquiry enthusiasm but limited trading volume. The macro - environment may boost nickel prices in the short - term [18]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Wednesday, soda ash futures were volatile, and glass futures were strongly volatile. The supply of glass is shrinking, but the demand is weak, and inventories are rising. The supply of soda ash is tightening, but the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Prices are expected to be low and volatile [19]. 3.14 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures rebounded. The cost is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [20][21]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures were adjusted. The demand is weak due to steel mill losses and production cuts. The supply pressure remains high, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [22]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking coal and coke futures were weakly volatile. The online auction of coking coal had a high flow - rate, and the spot price was weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [23]. 3.17 Industrial Data - The report provides trading data of various metal futures on November 26, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. It also shows the changes in inventory, spot prices, and other data of different metals, such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. [24][25][28]

Core Viewpoint - The modernization of agriculture and rural areas is crucial for the overall progress of China's modernization, with a focus on addressing the "three rural issues" as a priority for the Communist Party [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Development Strategies - The 2025 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the need for localized development of new agricultural productivity and the implementation of seed industry revitalization actions [2]. - There is a call for a unified national seed industry data sharing platform to enhance collaboration among research, enterprises, and policies [2]. - Recommendations include establishing a mechanism for the protection of research results and ensuring a positive environment for innovation [2]. Group 2: Macro Control and Stability - Suggestions include strengthening macroeconomic control to maintain stability in the production and market of essential agricultural products [3]. - The establishment of a comprehensive coordination body for straw utilization is proposed to enhance collaboration across various governmental departments [3]. - Legislative efforts are recommended to ensure rural water supply is included in urban water supply regulations [3]. Group 3: Technological Innovation in Agriculture - The need for accelerated agricultural technological innovation is highlighted, with a focus on integrating artificial intelligence into agricultural practices [4]. - Recommendations include building a comprehensive innovation system for agricultural AI and enhancing talent development in this field [4]. - There is a call for strategic adjustments and collaborations among national laboratories, research institutions, and leading enterprises in agriculture [4][5]. Group 4: Rural Revitalization and Employment - The transformation of labor mobility patterns indicates a shift towards local employment, which is seen as an opportunity for rural revitalization and common prosperity [6]. - A high-quality employment support system for rural labor is proposed, focusing on local job creation and industry development [6]. - The development of rural industries and innovative business models is encouraged to enhance farmers' income and ensure food supply [6]. Group 5: Brand Development and Environmental Quality - The establishment of a top-tier brand cultivation system for regional agricultural products is suggested to enhance market recognition [7]. - Recommendations include promoting the use of biological fertilizers and pesticides to improve agricultural practices and environmental quality [7].

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2242 | 22 | 0.98% | 791,802 | -0.94% | 1,015,768 | 4.24% | | C2605 | | 2263 | -1 | -0.04% | 115,839 | 6.16% | 359,634 | 2.85% | | C2509 | | 2275 | -8 | -0.35% | 4,815 | 17.64% | 19,572 | 8.17% | | CS2601 | | 2556 | 21 | 0.82% | 159,970 | 1.28% | 254,397 | 5.23% | | CS2605 | ...

证券之星消息，11月26日农产品加工板块较上一交易日下跌0.99%，京粮控股领跌。当日上证指数报收 于3864.18，下跌0.15%。深证成指报收于12907.83，上涨1.02%。农产品加工板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 920273 | 一致魔手 | 35.30 | 3.04% | 2.52万 | 8829.03万 | | 002852 | 道道全 | 10.68 | 2.89% | 14.06万 | 1.52 Z | | 300268 | *ST佳沃 | 13.80 | 2.37% | 2.43万 | 333.12万 | | 920371 | 欧福蛋业 | 10.65 | 1.43% | 2.00万 | 2109.54万 | | 002481 | 双塔食品 | 5.59 | 0.72% | 25.41万 | 1.43亿 | | 000972 | *ST中基 | 3.87 | 0.26% | 8.10万 | 3129.80万 | | 003030 | 祖 ...

Core Points - The "Northeast Farmer Sister" instant corn brand has come under scrutiny again due to product quality issues, specifically reports of mold appearing in unopened vacuum-sealed packages [2] - The brand is under the ownership of Jilin Province Farmer Sister Food Co., Ltd., established in 2012, primarily engaged in the production and processing of fresh corn, with a registered capital of 15 million yuan [2] - The company's communication channels have been found to be unresponsive, raising concerns about its brand management and crisis communication capabilities [2][3] Industry Insights - The incident highlights potential flaws in the production or packaging processes, as well as deficiencies in crisis management and customer communication for the brand [3] - The ability of the company to enhance quality control and rebuild consumer trust will be crucial for its recovery from this crisis [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices experienced a slight increase, reflecting market dynamics and inventory changes [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 26, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 50.60 cents per pound and rose to 50.85 cents per pound, marking a 0.43% increase, with an intraday high of 50.92 cents and a low of 50.49 cents [1] - On November 25, the soybean oil futures had a closing price of 50.55 cents per pound, with a slight increase of 0.10% from the previous day [1] Group 2: Inventory and Pricing - As of November 25, the national soybean oil port inventory stood at 1.156 million tons, up from 1.133 million tons on November 18, indicating a week-over-week increase of 23,000 tons [1] - On November 25, the C&F price for Argentine soybean oil for December shipment was $1,160 per ton, down by $10 from the previous trading day, while the February shipment price was $1,148 per ton, also down by $10 [1] - The national first-grade soybean oil transaction volume on November 25 was 2,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 41.18% compared to the previous trading day [1]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.15%. Positive progress in US-Ukraine peace talks led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driver of oil prices remains. The near-term risk is whether Russia can accept the latest version of the peace plan [2]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The US retail sales month-on-month rate in September was 0.2%, lower than expected and the previous value. PPI was basically in line with expectations. There is strong uncertainty in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices fluctuated greatly. The US ADP employment report showed a weak labor market. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is expected to rise above 80%. US copper exchange inventories have reached a record high. Codelco's premium for long-term refined copper contracts to East Asia is high. Pay attention to the increase in positions of Shanghai copper and the performance of the MA40 moving average after taking profits on previous long positions [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly. After the price correction, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices. Demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The macro sentiment has been fluctuating recently, and the industrial contradictions are limited. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and adjusting after breaking below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, with support around 21,100 yuan [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remains at 20,700 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. Industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels, and cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. Alumina - Alumina operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The supply surplus pattern is hard to change. Before large-scale production cuts occur, alumina will mainly operate weakly [7]. Zinc - Overseas funds have a strong control over the market. LME zinc warehouse receipts increased slightly to 48,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium is as high as $120.77/ton. The domestic zinc mine supply is tightening, and the TC of domestic and overseas mines has been lowered. The bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong, but the domestic demand outlook is under pressure. In the short term, there is no clear directional signal, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - LME lead inventories are at a high level of 265,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month discount is $35.57/ton. The domestic fundamentals are neutral, and the trading sentiment of funds is weak. Track the dynamics of smelters and wait for low - buying opportunities [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel cost support continues to decline. Although Shanghai nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the short - term contradiction lies in the macro level. Short on rebounds [10]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices oscillated at high levels. The short - term upward exploration sentiment of domestic and international tin prices remains. Short at high levels, holding short positions near 298,000 yuan [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The market total inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 118,000 tons. The futures price oscillates violently at high levels, and risk control should be the priority [12]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rates of Xinjiang and Southwest production areas remained flat. The demand reduction plan of the silicone industry has a relatively limited impact on the overall supply - demand pattern. In the short term, industrial silicon futures will continue to oscillate [13]. Polysilicon - The spot price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remains in the narrow range of 49,600 - 54,900 yuan/ton. The short - term futures price is affected by both the "anti - involution" sentiment and its own fundamentals and will continue to oscillate [14]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - trading steel prices fell. The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to suffer losses. The supply pressure will gradually ease. The domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm recently, and the futures price has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the weak demand restricts the upside space [15]. Iron Ore - The iron ore overnight futures oscillated. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is in a seasonal decline trend. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [16]. Coke - The intraday price oscillated. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price may oscillate weakly [17]. Coking Coal - The intraday price oscillated weakly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly. The downstream demand has some resilience, and the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price may oscillate weakly [18]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and chemical coke prices. The silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downwards [19]. Silicon Iron - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and blue carbon prices. The overall demand still has some resilience. The supply of silicon iron remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The possibility of resuming navigation in the Red Sea is increasing. Once new ships resume navigation, the far - month contracts will be under great pressure due to the significant surplus of shipping capacity. If the cargo volume continues to recover, there may be a price increase again in late December or early January [21]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline in international oil prices dragged down fuel oil prices overnight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline, but it will still be supported by supply fluctuations in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to weaken [22]. Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish for asphalt [23]. Group 4: Chemical Products Urea - The spot price of urea in the "Four Provinces" is stable with a slight decline, while the price in the Northeast continues to rise. The supply is abundant. The domestic oversupply pattern is expected to continue, and the price may return to a stalemate after the decline [24]. Methanol - The methanol futures price adjusted narrowly. The bullish expectation of overseas plant production cuts is gradually being realized, and the methanol valuation is low. However, the reality is still weak, and attention should be paid to the reduction intensity and duration of supply and market sentiment changes [25]. Pure Benzene - The domestic night - trading external crude oil price plummeted, and pure benzene operated weakly. The domestic arrival expectation is high, and the downstream demand is decreasing. Adopt the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [26]. Styrene - The output of styrene factories is expected to decrease slightly, and the downstream demand remains good. The supply - demand balance is tight, and the total inventory continues to decline, which supports the styrene price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The propylene market lacks news guidance. The supply pressure of polyethylene increases. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly. The demand side is affected by the weak raw material prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC oscillated. The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to cost - end changes. Caustic soda oscillated. The supply is under high pressure, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Caustic soda operates weakly [29]. PX and PTA - The short - term supply - demand of PX weakens, but it is expected to be strong in the medium term. PTA's processing margin is low, and the inventory accumulation expectation eases. Before the Spring Festival, it follows the cost - driven logic [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but the inventory will accumulate around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip demand fades, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity. It is mainly cost - driven [32]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The glass intraday price oscillated. The profit is narrowing, and the cold - repair speed is accelerating. The demand is insufficient. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [33]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the Thai raw material market price decreased. The demand continues to weaken, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the inventory is increasing. RU is relatively strong, NR and BR are under observation, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34]. Soda Ash - The soda ash intraday price was weak. The industry continues to destock. The short - term focus is on the upstream cost fluctuations, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [35]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean production may be affected by the La Nina phenomenon. Wait for the end of the callback and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil continues to decline weakly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening. The short - term palm oil supply - demand is weaker, and it is in the process of finding the bottom [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - With the arrival of Australian rapeseed in China, the market focuses on customs clearance, pressing yield, and policy details. The domestic rapeseed sector is recommended to be observed in the short term [38]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans fluctuate repeatedly. The policy side is still conducting auctions. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight. US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [39]. Corn - The night - trading corn futures increased in positions and prices. The market is divided on the new - season corn output. The downstream corn inventory is very low. Pay attention to the replenishment situation after the price increase this week. Wait for the opportunity to short on highs [40]. Pig - The number of fertile sows decreased in October 2025. The spot pig price continues to decline weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing next year [41]. Egg - The number of newly - opened laying hens will start to decline continuously from around December. The supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to gradually ease in the medium - term. In the short term, it will still focus on the convergence of the futures - spot price difference [42]. Cotton - US cotton rose slightly. The domestic cotton spot sales basis is stable. The new - cotton cost supports the price but also limits the upside. The cotton commercial inventory is not high, and the sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn market trading is weak. Temporarily observe [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The international market supply is relatively abundant, and US sugar faces upward pressure. In China, the market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is relatively good [44]. Apple - The futures price oscillates at a high level. The spot price is strong. The short - term price trend is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [45]. Wood - The futures price oscillates. The low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe [46]. Pulp - The pulp futures price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory has increased continuously, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. Temporarily observe [46]. Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares rose strongly yesterday, and all major futures index contracts rose. The macro - liquidity suppression has temporarily eased, and risk assets have a corrective rebound. The market currently focuses on the interaction between geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [47]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the market trading became冷清. Policy games and institutional behaviors are still key variables. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the range. Operate with caution [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Gold prices are expected to continue oscillating, with increased volatility. It is recommended to pay attention to the fluctuations [13]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [16]. - Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index): The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [20]. - US Stock Index Futures: Adopt a generally bullish approach, but note that the technology sector has not fully reversed its decline. Observe whether the 50 - day moving average can form strong support [25]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market may shift from oscillation to a bearish trend. It is recommended to focus on short - term rebound short - selling strategies [30]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil): The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound; otherwise, it will likely remain weak [31]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal): The futures price is expected to remain oscillating. Continue to monitor China's actual purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American production areas [32]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): Starch is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, following the trend of corn. For price spreads, it is recommended to operate within a range [34]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts and not to short [38]. - Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil): Adopt an oscillating perspective and be cautious about the upward space [43]. - Agricultural Products (Pigs): Investors with existing short positions can continue to hold them and adjust stop - loss and take - profit points. For those not yet in the market, wait for a rebound to enter short positions. Long - term investors can focus on far - month contracts after significant corrections [46]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead): For single - side trading, look for opportunities to stop losses at low prices; for arbitrage and cross - market trading, it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc): For single - side trading, wait and see; for calendar spread arbitrage, hold long positions; for cross - market arbitrage, continue to wait and see [50]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): The futures main contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [53]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [55]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper): For single - side trading, it is recommended to buy on dips; for arbitrage, continue to pay attention [59]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel): Existing short - position holders can gradually stop losses and take profits, or lightly consider going long on dips. Mid - term evaluation of resource contraction in Indonesia is required [61]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Do not chase long positions. If production resumes and demand declines in the off - season, consider lightly shorting on the right side. For the long - term, adopt a strategy of buying on dips [63]. - Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil): Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias in the short term [66]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It is recommended to wait and see [68]. - Energy Chemicals (LLDPE): The futures price of PE is expected to oscillate and decline under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease [70]. 2. Core Views - The US economic data in September, including retail sales and employment, showed weakness, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [19]. - The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations, trading volume remained low, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [2][15]. - The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply pressure of oils and fats is large, and the market is expected to be weak; the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate; the price of corn and corn starch is expected to be relatively strong [31][32][38]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, the demand for lithium carbonate needs verification, and different trading strategies are recommended for the short - term and long - term; the price of copper is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5][59]. - In the energy chemicals market, the decline in oil prices is due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the short - term trend is bearish; the short - term trend of LLDPE is expected to decline under the influence of supply and demand [66][70]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Ukraine agreed to the terms of the peace agreement, and Fed Governor Milan called for significant rate cuts. The US budget deficit in October reached $284 billion [11][12][13]. - Comment: Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the dovish speech of the Fed governor affected the market. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue oscillating [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's foreign investment in the first 10 months increased by 6.2%, and the Sino - US leaders' call was initiated by the US [14][15]. - Comment: The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but trading volume remained low due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Kevin Hassett is considered the leading candidate for the next Fed chair. The US labor market weakened, and retail sales in September increased slightly [17][18][19]. - Comment: The latest US retail data was lower than expected, and the labor market was weak. A rate cut in December is almost certain, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate for the Fed chair. US retail sales in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, and PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [21][22][23]. - Comment: PPI was basically in line with expectations, and core PPI growth was slightly lower than expected. Consumption momentum continued to slow down, and the expectation of a rate cut increased. Overall, a bullish approach is recommended, but pay attention to the technology sector [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The State Council will hold a policy briefing, the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations and 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [26][27][28]. - Comment: The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.43% month - on - month [31]. - Comment: The oil market sentiment was weak, and the supply pressure was large. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The net export sales of US soybeans in the week ending October 9 were 785,000 tons [32]. - Comment: The supply - demand situation of soybean meal changed little. The market will focus on the weather in South American production areas, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on November 25 were 68 yuan/ton, 37 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [33]. - Comment: The supply - demand pattern of starch improved, and enterprises remained profitable. Starch futures followed corn higher, and price spreads are expected to operate within a range [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The domestic corn price showed mixed trends, with some regions rising and some falling [35][37]. - Comment: The spot price of corn remained strong, and the futures price continued to rise. The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts [38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The transaction volume of first - and second - hand houses in 30 key cities showed signs of stabilizing, and the inventory of the passenger vehicle industry at the end of October was 3.41 million [39][40]. - Comment: Steel prices oscillated and strengthened. The increase in steel prices was related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand did not strongly support the price increase [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: Huatong Co., Ltd. plans to control costs in the next three years [44]. - Comment: The current spot price of pigs is oscillating and falling, which weakens market confidence in peak - season demand. It is recommended to adopt different trading strategies according to the situation [45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49/ton [47]. - Comment: The LME lead price was in a downward trend, and the domestic lead price also declined. It is recommended to look for opportunities to stop losses on short positions [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2/ton, and Kazakhstan's refined zinc production in October increased [49]. - Comment: The LME zinc price oscillated, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Different trading strategies are recommended for single - side trading and arbitrage [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October increased by 43.76% year - on - year, and the single - month installed capacity in October was 12.6 GW [51]. - Comment: The spot price of polysilicon is affected by policy and fundamentals. The price of leading manufacturers is expected to remain stable, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: In October, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 36% month - on - month [54]. - Comment: The export of industrial silicon was lower than expected, and the balance sheet deteriorated. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: India's Adani copper smelter is facing a shortage of ore, and the 2026 long - term processing fee for Chinese copper smelters may be at a historical low [56][58]. - Comment: The copper price is supported by market risk appetite but is also affected by economic data and geopolitical situations. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME nickel inventory remained unchanged. The production of Indonesia's QMB MHP project is expected to decline [60]. - Comment: The market risk appetite was supported, and the decline in MHP production may improve the balance sheet. It is recommended to adjust short - positions and consider going long on dips [60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Ganfeng Lithium's 800,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project is expected to be put into production in 2026 [62]. - Comment: The demand for lithium carbonate needs verification. Do not chase long positions in the short term, and consider different strategies according to the situation [63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The production of Kazakhstan's largest oil field increased, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased [64][65]. - Comment: Oil prices declined due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan. The short - term trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting [65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on November 25 was 60.16 yuan/ton [67]. - Comment: The impact of the carry - over policy on CEA price may be more emotional than substantial. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - News: China's apparent consumption of PE in October increased by 3.9% month - on - month [69]. - Comment: Under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease, the futures price of LLDPE is expected to oscillate and decline [70].

Core Viewpoint - Fresh agricultural products are becoming increasingly popular on consumer tables, with innovations in supply chains and production processes enhancing their value and appeal [1] Group 1: Fresh Agricultural Products Overview - Fresh corn is redefining traditional perceptions of corn as a staple grain, emerging as a popular fresh produce item [1] - Fresh agricultural products include minimally processed items that retain their original flavor and appearance, such as vacuum-packed sweet corn and fresh rice [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Innovations - The northeastern region of China is the largest producer of fresh corn, with over 40% of the national planting area located in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia [2] - The fresh corn industry is characterized by new varieties and smart agricultural practices, including the use of specific strains like glutinous corn and sweet glutinous corn, and advanced planting techniques [2] - Southern China serves as an important off-season supply base for fresh corn, with plans for over 2 million acres of planting in Guangdong Province by 2024 [2] Group 3: Cold Chain and Preservation Techniques - Cold chain logistics are crucial for maintaining the quality of fresh corn, with technologies like pressure pre-cooling and temperature-controlled transportation reducing spoilage rates by approximately 15% [3] - Innovative processing techniques are being employed to create value-added products such as vacuum-packed corn and frozen corn kernels, enhancing shelf life and marketability [3] Group 4: Standardization and Local Experience - Companies like Yuanji Cloud Dumplings are leveraging freshness as a core competitive advantage, with rapid production and distribution systems ensuring high-quality offerings [4] - The integration of local agricultural experiences, such as vegetable banquets in rural areas, is attracting consumers and enhancing the appeal of fresh produce [5] Group 5: Technological Advancements and Market Trends - Technological innovations are expanding the shelf life of products like rice, allowing for long-term storage without compromising quality [6] - The rise of "fruit-like vegetables" reflects a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier and more diverse food options [6] Group 6: Future Outlook - The fresh agricultural product industry faces challenges in brand building and quality enhancement, particularly for niche products [6] - A comprehensive and controllable system from production to consumption is essential for enhancing the competitiveness of fresh agricultural products [7]

Core Points - The 2025 Zhejiang Agricultural Expo is held from November 21 to November 25, showcasing the achievements of rural revitalization in Zhejiang Province with a theme focused on local specialties and shared prosperity [1] Group 1: Agricultural Products and Innovations - The expo features over 4,000 types of specialty agricultural products from 3,500 participating companies, highlighting local brands from various cities in Zhejiang, such as Wenzhou's "Red Beauty" citrus and Jinhua's cured meat [2] - The "Qu Chenpi" brand, developed through a collaboration between Quzhou Yuxiangyuan Technology Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, showcases innovative products like fermented ginseng Chenpi wine, enhancing the value of local specialties [2] - Leading agricultural companies like Zunming Food Co., Ltd. and Yiming Food Co., Ltd. present diverse product lines, demonstrating the transformation of soybeans into various food items and emphasizing quality control across their supply chains [3] Group 2: Smart Agriculture and Technology - The expo highlights advancements in smart agriculture, including a planting robot that automates the planting process for valuable medicinal herbs, improving efficiency and reducing costs [4] - Zhejiang Oracle Super Code Technology Co., Ltd. introduces intelligent scales for tea harvesting, integrating digital management systems to enhance operational efficiency and protect farmers' rights [5] - Experts indicate that China's smart agriculture is transitioning from technology validation to large-scale application, with a need for government support and industry collaboration to develop universal solutions [5]