Group 1 - The stock of Haineng Technology (300072) closed at 3.71 yuan on June 23, 2025, with a daily increase of 20.06%, reaching a new high for the stage, and a trading volume of 6.02 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.23% [1] - A large block trade occurred on the same day, with a transaction volume of 403,700 shares at a price of 3.09 yuan, representing a discount of 16.71% compared to the closing price, totaling 1.2474 million yuan [1] - Institutional investors net bought 8.6666 million yuan worth of Haineng Technology shares, ranking fourth in buying positions, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect saw a net purchase of 10.3053 million yuan, becoming the largest buying force [1] Group 2 - Market analysis suggests that the stock price fluctuation may be related to the company's recent industrial breakthroughs, including the launch of a 200,000 tons/year biodiesel isomerization project SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) on June 20, marking it as the first local state-owned enterprise to obtain airworthiness certification from the Civil Aviation Administration [2] - The SAF market is experiencing a widening supply gap due to long capacity construction cycles and rapidly growing demand, with recent price increases for HVO/SAF [2] - The current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of Haineng Technology is -43.67 times, with a total market value of 8.717 billion yuan and a price-to-book ratio of 1.47 times, indicating market divergence regarding its profit turnaround expectations and asset quality [2]

新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | 燃料油早报 | | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/06/16 | 440.56 | 480.32 | -1.20 | 661.89 | -181.57 | 17.44 | 39.76 | | 2025/06/17 | 458.53 | 500.63 | -1.72 | 704.24 | -203.61 | 19.66 | 42.10 | | 2025/06/18 | 457.84 | 497.59 | -1.57 | 707.10 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights Daqing Petrochemical's proactive market expansion and profitability enhancement through reforms and integration of resources [1][2] - Daqing Petrochemical has achieved overall profitability in the first five months of the year, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development [1] - The company has implemented reforms in labor, personnel, and distribution systems, effectively reducing the number of legal entities and optimizing organizational structure [1] Group 2 - Daqing Petrochemical is focusing on market-oriented optimization of its unlisted business structure, exiting inefficient operations and concentrating resources on advantageous industries [2] - The company has signed 45 external market contracts this year, covering multiple fields and injecting new vitality into its development [2] - The detection technology development company has increased its profit by 3.92 million yuan in the first five months, enhancing its core competitiveness through the application of new technologies [2]

本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 苯乙烯主要观点：原油端，受伊以冲突影响延续上涨趋势；周内美国介入与否尚存不确定性，届时不排除局势进一步升级，油价短期波动或剧烈。纯苯端，因原油高位支撑， 纯苯估值比价偏低向上存弹性。基本面看国内纯苯供需双增，下游苯乙烯复产支撑需求但非苯乙烯下游利润堪忧，进口方面船期后续到港有增多，港口库存仍表现出去化不畅的供 需矛盾，价格上方空间或因此受限。苯乙烯在复产下供增需减，上游检修装置回归叠加利润起色刺激意愿，供应压力增大；下游3S在此轮事件中价格跟涨乏力利润承压，叠加国补 和关税影响终端需求并不过分乐观。苯乙烯供需边际或逐步转弱，关注后续库存止降累库节点。短期地缘扰动仍是主要定价因素，原油波动剧烈建议谨慎参与。中期结合苯乙烯基 本面看高价仍存压力，可关注原油共振的高空机会。 期货策略建议：单边暂观望，中期关注原油共振的高空机会 期权策略建议：暂观望 01 纯苯 壹 2025年苯乙烯、纯苯链投产计划 苯乙烯周报 E B ：原油扰动剧烈 ， 关注苯乙烯边际转弱和累库时点 广发期货研究所 化工组 金果实 从业资格：F3083706 投 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/6/23 | | 指标 | 5/22 | 6/12 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 6/20 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3539 | 3527 | રે જેવાસ | 3738 | 3747 | 9 | 220 | | | BU06 | 3555 | 3580 | 3416 | 3448 | 3440 | -8 | -140 | | | BU09 | 3481 | 3527 | રે રેતિર | 3738 | 3747 | 9 | 220 | | | BU12 | 3301 | 3364 | 3527 | 3577 | 3582 | 5 | 218 | | 程南 | | | | | | | | | | | BU03 | 3250 | 3297 | 3434 | 3479 | 3480 | 7 | 183 | | | 成交量 | 381836 | 447731 | 359344 | 412737 | 349655 | -63082 | ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 晨会速递 总量研究 【宏观】如何解读 5 月份财政数据？——2025 年 5 月财政数据点评 5 月份财政收支同比增速均较上月回落，主要关注以下三点：其一，财政支出仍较为 强劲，兜底"三保"支出力度较强，但基建支出同比增速回落幅度较大，需关注地方 投资动能和意愿表现；其二，非税收入同比增速继续回落指向地方资金环境持续好转， 但税收收入同比增速依然不高，在加强征管之外仍需提振价格表现；其三，土地市场 改善并不持续，指向房地产市场向下"惯性"仍在，积极财政政策仍需择机推出。风 险提示：政策落地不及预期，重大项目开工不及预期。 【宏观】美联储在等待关税"冲击"——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评 美联储在 6 月会议如期按兵不动、将继续观察，点阵图也并未调整 2025 年的利率预 测。观察 5 月以来的数据，关税对消费的冲击已经逐步显现，对就业造成了结构性的 影响，但对通胀的影响尚未体现出来。我们理解，美联储依然在等待关税对通胀的"一 次性冲击"，并权衡其对于经济和就业的冲击，才会决策是否要推动降息。 【策略】被动型资金和个人资金仍是资金面的主要变量——资金面系列报告之四 公 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking profit on long positions on rallies in the first three trading days of the week due to the daily increase in the number of warehouse receipts and the less - than - expected destocking at ports. On Thursday, it recommends going long on pullbacks as the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in July tightens and the probability of an escalation in the situation among the US, Israel, and Iran increases [2]. - According to the expected changes in oil prices and BZN, the valuation range of EB2508 is revised up to 7400 - 8150 yuan. It is recommended to hold long positions and go long on pullbacks [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Pure Benzene Logic - **Domestic and Asian Device Maintenance**: In China, many domestic pure benzene - related devices have maintenance plans or actual maintenance situations. The total domestic maintenance loss in June is 17.69 million tons, and in July it is 17.10 million tons. In Asia, many foreign devices also have maintenance plans, with a total maintenance loss of 23.27 million tons in June and 11.01 million tons in July [10][11]. - **Overseas Aromatic Hydrocarbon Supply - Demand Changes**: From May to June in the US, the total pure benzene imports were only 3 - 4 million tons, and the inventory of pure benzene traders and downstream raw materials in the US Gulf ports decreased significantly. In Europe, multiple phenol plants announced permanent closures this year [12]. - **Production and Profit**: The weekly production profit of petroleum benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.36% (+0.96). The weekly production profit of hydro - benzene decreased by about 97 yuan/ton, and the operating rate was 67.87% (+0.77). The import profit of domestic pure benzene decreased by 49.86 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the far - month import window closed [15][18]. - **Crude Oil and Related Inventory**: In the week of June 13, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 11.473 million barrels, Cushing crude oil decreased by 995,000 barrels, and SPR replenished by 230,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate dropped to 93.2% [22]. - **Downstream Product Conditions**: In the phenol sector, some plants increased their loads; in the caprolactam sector, the profit improved significantly and there was still room for restocking; in the aniline and adipic acid sectors, some plants had start - up and shutdown situations, and the profit of adipic acid increased slightly [27][29]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of June 16, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 153,000 tons (+4000), and the提货 volume decreased significantly. The five major downstream industries' total consumption of pure benzene increased by about 27,300 tons. After revising up the caprolactam operating rate forecast, the pure benzene supply - demand in July turned back to a tight balance [31][35]. 02 Styrene Logic - **Device Maintenance**: Domestically, Baolai's 350,000 - ton device entered maintenance, and some other devices restarted or postponed maintenance. Overseas, some devices restarted or had restart failures, and some were shut down due to raw material problems. The total domestic maintenance loss in June was 106,600 tons, and in July it was 50,500 tons [41][42]. - **Production and Profit**: This week, the domestic styrene production was 361,900 tons (+23,800), and the capacity utilization rate was about 79.01% (+5.2). The average weekly integrated profit of styrene increased by about 91 yuan/ton, the profit of PO/SM plants increased by about 29 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the average weekly profit of non - integrated plants decreased by about 25 yuan/ton [43][47]. - **Inventory and Trade**: This week, the styrene inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 188,800 tons (+4100), and the inventory in East China ports was 66,300 tons (-13,700). The import profit of styrene decreased by 34.79 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the far - month import window closed. The export of styrene in June is expected to be 21,000 tons, a decrease from the previous month [55][58]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the total consumption of styrene by the three S products decreased by about 2400 tons. In the short term, the supply of styrene increased while the demand decreased, but the accumulation of factory and port inventories was small [61]. 03 Downstream Products & Terminal Industry Logic - **EPS**: The average weekly external procurement profit was - 4 yuan/ton, the production was about 88,900 tons (-3000), the capacity utilization rate was about 53.63% (-1.84), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 27,700 tons (-2400). The mainstream price increased by 260 yuan/ton week - on - week (+3%) [67][82]. - **ABS**: The external procurement profit increased by about 18.33 yuan/ton week - on - week, the production was about 119,800 tons (-200), the capacity utilization rate was about 63.97% (-0.11), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 209,000 tons (-9000). The average price increased by 78.33 yuan/ton week - on - week (+0.72%) [73][82]. - **PS**: The average weekly external procurement profit decreased by 53 yuan/ton, remaining in a loss state. The production was about 89,900 tons (+600), the capacity utilization rate was about 58.7% (+0.4), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 102,000 tons (+6000). The average price of GPPS increased by 215 yuan/ton week - on - week (+2.69%) [77][82]. - **Terminal Industry**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in automobile sales was 1.2314 million vehicles (+12.61%), and the cumulative year - on - year increase in exports was 319,400 vehicles (+15.2%). In May, the production of air conditioners decreased by 1.353 million units month - on - month but increased by 430,000 units year - on - year; the production of color TVs decreased by 310,000 units month - on - month and 1.193 million units year - on - year; the production of refrigerators increased by 331,000 units month - on - month but decreased by 422,000 units year - on - year [86]. 04 Pure Benzene, Styrene Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in pure benzene production, import, and downstream consumption demand from January to December 2025. After adjustment, the supply - demand in July turned to a tight balance [104]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in styrene production, net import, and downstream demand from January to December 2025, as well as inventory changes and forecasts [108].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年6月22日 4 ◆ 我们的观点：跟随原油偏强，淡季裂解收窄 ◆ 我们的逻辑：过去一周，BU跟随大幅上行，但在油品板块中涨势依然居弱。据隆众资讯数据，本周国内沥青周均价为 3781元/吨，环比涨89元/吨。市场现货维持偏强走势，价格区间3741-3795元/吨。因地缘政治扰动加剧供应风险担忧， 国际油价显著上扬，日内最大涨幅超7%，对沥青成本形成强力支撑。周内，中石化各地区主营价格普涨50-300元/吨不 等，地炼亦积极跟涨。油价坚挺及套利拿货支撑价格，但业者套利成交增加。不过，受国内大范围降雨抑制需求，现货 刚需跟进放缓，市场整体持稳，局部维持坚挺。策略方面，短期BU料将跟随原油高位运行，淡季裂解上方空间或相对受 限，关注中东地缘局势。 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, are expected to drive oil prices upward, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $75.78 and $74.04 per barrel respectively, reflecting increases of 0.8% and 1.2% [1][10][11] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) have both revised down their oil demand forecasts for 2025, primarily due to weak demand from the U.S. and China [2][14] - The report emphasizes the strategic value of oil and gas, highlighting that the "Three Barrel Oil" companies are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and focus on increasing reserves and production [3][19] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - The report discusses the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict and its implications for oil prices, predicting continued upward pressure on prices due to geopolitical risks [1][11] - The conflict has already led to significant disruptions, with oil transportation risks increasing, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for a substantial portion of global oil trade [3][25] Oil Demand and Supply Forecasts - IEA forecasts a global oil demand increase of 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, with a downward revision of 20,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [2][14] - EIA's forecast for 2025 indicates an increase of 790,000 barrels per day, also revised down by 180,000 barrels per day [2][14] - OPEC+ has underperformed in its production increase plans, with actual increases falling short of targets [2][16] Strategic Developments in the Oil Sector - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies are expected to focus on high capital expenditures and strategic developments to counter external uncertainties, with production plans showing growth rates of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively [3][19][20] - The report suggests that the geopolitical situation enhances the valuation of oil transportation, with freight rates significantly increasing due to the conflict [3][25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major players in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as related oil service companies and chemical industry leaders [4][19]

强于大市 化工行业周报 20250622 国际油价、丁二烯、 PTA 价格上涨 今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，六月份建议关注：1、安 全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中间体行业的影响；2、上半年'抢出口'等因素带来 的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的 能源企业等。 行业动态 投资建议 截至 6 月 22 日，SW 基础化工市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 21.72 倍，处在历史（2002 年至 今）的 65.55%分位数；市净率为 1.85 倍，处在历史水平的 25.95%分位数。SW 石油石化市 盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 11.37 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）的 23.02%分位数；市净率为 1.18 倍，处在历史水平的 24.58%分位数。今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅 波动等因素影响较大，六月份建议关注：1、安全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中 间体行业的影响；2、上半年'抢出口'等因素带来的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益 关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的能源企业等。中长期推荐 ...