Market Performance - The A-share market showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.98%, the CSI 300 rising by 1.08%, and the Wind All A Index up by 2.75% during the period from February 24 to February 27, 2026[23] - The cyclical sector outperformed with an average increase of 1.23%, driven by rising international oil prices and increased demand for precious metals due to geopolitical tensions[13] Geopolitical Impact - The recent US-Iran conflict on February 28 had a limited impact on the market, as it was largely priced in beforehand, with noticeable adjustments in high-valuation sectors like US tech stocks[18] - The conflict is expected to be short-term, with the US likely focusing on limited strikes rather than full occupation, and Iran's economy heavily reliant on oil exports, making long-term blockades impractical[18] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The US January CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, with core CPI dropping to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, easing inflationary pressures and lowering the threshold for potential Fed rate cuts[20] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, with a 63.79% probability of a cut in June and a 98% probability in July 2026[20] Investment Strategy - Focus on technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly electronics, software, and communication services, as well as power equipment and defense industries, due to favorable policy signals from the upcoming "Two Sessions"[24] - Emphasis on boosting domestic demand, with the National Development and Reform Commission planning to enhance the effectiveness of new policies, including a special bond issuance of 625 billion yuan to support consumption[24] Risk Factors - Key risks include economic underperformance, industry-specific risks, exchange rate fluctuations, data inaccuracies, trade protectionism, global liquidity risks, and potential black swan events[39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. This has led to increased market volatility, with risk - averse assets such as gold and the US dollar rising, and stock markets showing mixed trends. - Commodity prices are also highly influenced by the geopolitical situation. Energy prices have soared, and different commodities have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical impacts. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 2 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 51.8. The Middle East situation led to increased risk - averse sentiment, pushing up the prices of the US dollar and gold. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased, and US bond yields rose nearly 10bp. Gold is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, while silver is weaker [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement on the Iran war did not set a time frame, and the market risk - averse sentiment recovered, causing the US dollar index to continue rising. It is recommended to be bullish on the US dollar in the short term [16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 2 - month manufacturing PMI continued to expand for two months, but the input price index soared. The Middle East geopolitical risk led to market inflation concerns, and the US stock market was expected to be volatile and weak. It is recommended to wait and see [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - share trading volume increased and was differentiated, with the turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Affected by the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, oil, gas, and military stocks rose, supporting the index. It is recommended to reduce long - position strategies in stock index futures and wait for the situation of the Iran war to become clear [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The prices of precious metals and chemicals rose, and the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts during the Two Sessions increased slightly, causing treasury bond futures to rise. It is expected that the bond market will be volatile before the Two Sessions and that the impact of supply shocks after the sessions needs to be noted [25][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in February decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in February decreased compared with the previous year. Black metals continued to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and it is recommended to view steel prices from a volatile perspective in the short term [28][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market was weakly stable. After the Spring Festival, the supply recovered quickly, but the terminal demand had not started significantly. The market was in a volatile pattern, and the policy changes around the Two Sessions and the downstream resumption of work rhythm need to be noted [32][33]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in the Ordos region was strong, with prices rising slightly. The port price was expected to continue rising, but the high inventory of power plants restricted the upward elasticity of coal prices. The short - term coal price was expected to be strong [34][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The terminal demand was slowly recovering, but the iron - making water recovery speed was expected to be slow due to inventory pressure. The supply was at a high level, and the impact of the Middle East conflict on Iranian iron ore production and sales was uncertain. The iron ore price was expected to continue in a volatile market [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased. Market institutions lowered the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans. The US weekly export inspection was better than expected. The soybean meal futures price was expected to be volatile, and the purchase of US soybeans, import policies, and reserve dynamics in China need to be continued to be monitored [38][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil inventory increased. The palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in February. The rise in the oil market was mainly affected by the external market. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking amplitude of palm oil, the impact of Australian rapeseed on rapeseed oil, and the final RFS rule of the US in March for soybean oil [41][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The national average corn price was generally strong. The low inventory of ports, slow release of farmers' selling pressure, and tight supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast provided support for prices. However, the risk of concentrated selling of ground - stored corn in the Northeast, weak demand from the breeding and deep - processing industries, and potential wheat auctions may suppress prices. It is recommended to trade according to the trend and not to chase high prices [44][45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net short position of US sugar decreased for the first time in four weeks. The sugar production in India and Thailand was lower than expected. The sugar production in Guangxi was delayed. The domestic sugar market was expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [46][51]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The key copper export route in the Congo was interrupted due to a bridge collapse. The copper price was affected by the complex Middle East situation and short - term fundamental concerns. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [52][54]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The profit of SQM in the fourth quarter increased. The production of lithium carbonate in March was expected to increase, and the demand also showed a high - growth trend. However, there were potential risks in the power battery demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short term and pay attention to price corrections after the supply increases in the medium term [55][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread was at a discount, and the domestic lead inventory decreased slightly. The lead price was expected to rebound from a low level, and it is recommended to consider mid - term long positions [58][60]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread was at a discount, and the domestic zinc inventory increased. The zinc price was affected by the rise in natural gas and European electricity prices. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions, hold existing long positions, and consider taking profits on rallies [61][62]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The global tin market was in a long - term structural tight - balance. The supply was restricted by various factors, and the demand was driven by emerging industries. The short - term price was affected by high inventory, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro and supply - side news [63][65]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US will take measures to ease the rise in oil prices. The statements of the US and Iran on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz were inconsistent. The oil price was expected to have a high upward risk before the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage [66][68]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Qatar's energy facilities were attacked, and the production of liquefied natural gas was suspended. The LPG market was expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [69][71]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The asphalt price was mainly driven by geopolitical risks and crude oil costs. The short - term price was expected to follow the trend of crude oil, and the development of the US - Iran situation and OPEC+ production policies need to be monitored [72][73]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The RCF tender was completed. The domestic urea supply was abundant, and the demand was increasing. The market was optimistic about the spring - plowing season, but policy intervention may occur if the price rises too fast. It is recommended to replenish inventory according to actual needs and view the futures market from a volatile perspective [74][75]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price was slightly lower. The supply was at a high level, and the demand recovery needed time. The market was expected to be in a volatile pattern, with a bias towards strength under geopolitical conflicts [76][77]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand support was limited in the short term. The caustic soda market was expected to be in a low - level and weak - volatile pattern [78][80]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The rise in the styrene price was mainly due to the increase in crude oil prices. The supply and demand of styrene were expected to improve marginally, and it is recommended to pay attention to the intensity of the conflict and potential credit risks [81][83]. 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Five major global shipping giants suspended shipping. The Middle East geopolitical situation led to a full - contract limit - up of European - route futures. The current rise in the market was mainly driven by sentiment, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment turns [84][85].

Group 1: Market Strategy - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to underperform due to an upcoming peak in lock-up expirations, with significant unlocks in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, tea beverages, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, amounting to HKD 87.2 billion, which is higher than the previous peak at the end of last year [2] - The deadline for annual report disclosures for Hong Kong companies is approaching, which may exert downward pressure on performance, as companies with fiscal years aligned with the calendar year must announce preliminary results by March 31 [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of military conflicts, are noted as a secondary factor affecting market sentiment, although the overall impact on the Hong Kong market may be limited due to a general strengthening of non-US assets [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The report discusses the factors driving the appreciation of the Renminbi since 2026, identifying three key realities: a resurgence of de-dollarization narratives, a high proportion of trade surplus turning into income at approximately 77.6%, and a rebound in domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) alongside a strong stock market opening [2] - The report references a previous analysis that outlined four key reasons for the accelerated appreciation of the Renminbi, emphasizing the importance of the central parity signal and the release of foreign exchange settlements as ongoing factors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that electronic, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment are the three core sectors recommended by brokers for March, indicating a bullish sentiment in the A-share market [1][4][9]. Broker Recommendations - In March, brokers have released a new list of recommended stocks, with a focus on sectors with strong performance and earnings catalysts. The electronic sector has the highest number of recommended stocks, followed by non-ferrous metals and power equipment [4][5]. - Specific stocks recommended in the electronic sector include Haiguang Information, Yuanjie Technology, and several others, driven by trends in computing power upgrades and domestic substitution [4][5]. - The non-ferrous metals sector continues to attract attention due to the upward cycle of copper and lithium, as well as the supply-demand gap for molybdenum and tin. Key recommendations include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5]. - The power equipment sector is favored due to multiple favorable trends, including energy storage and high-voltage construction. Notable stocks include Ningde Times and Yihui Lithium Energy [5]. Market Outlook - Most brokers believe the market is likely to trend upwards, with a focus on cyclical and technology sectors. Analysts suggest that the current A-share market is in a bullish phase, encouraging investors to maintain confidence despite short-term fluctuations [2][9]. - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors that benefit from PPI improvements and broad "anti-involution" trends, including non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and power [9][10]. Performance of Recommended Stocks - In February, the top-performing recommended stocks saw significant gains, with the best performer, Juguang Technology, rising by 52.21%. Other notable performers included Dongfang Tantalum and Tianfu Communication, both exceeding 48% gains [3]. - A total of 29 broker stock combinations achieved positive returns in February, with several brokers reporting monthly gains exceeding 5% [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The electronic sector is particularly highlighted for its potential in computing power chips, optical modules, and advanced packaging, with several companies receiving multiple broker recommendations [4]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is buoyed by the strategic value of metals like copper, lithium, and gold, with brokers emphasizing the importance of resource valuation and production capacity expansion [5]. - The power equipment sector is supported by high demand in energy storage and renewable energy projects, with brokers recommending stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [5].

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices generally rose during the week from February 24 to February 27, 2025, with the CSI 500 increasing by 4.32% [4] - The steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors had the highest gains, while media, retail, and food and beverage sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - The domestic new fund market was sluggish, with only 5 new funds established, totaling 1.451 billion units issued. This included 2 equity funds and 3 mixed funds [5] - A total of 36 new funds were issued across the market, categorized as 13 mixed funds, 12 equity funds, 6 bond funds, and 5 FOF funds [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Long-term thematic fund indices showed significant net value increases for cyclical theme funds, while pharmaceutical theme funds performed poorly. As of February 27, 2026, the net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: cyclical (6.93%), defense and military (4.30%), new energy (2.64%), industry rotation (2.43%), balanced industry (2.25%), TMT (1.93%), consumption (-0.78%), financial real estate (-0.84%), and pharmaceutical (-1.76%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - The stock ETF market continued to see net outflows, with significant reductions in both small-cap and large-cap broad-based ETFs. Conversely, there was an increase in inflows for Hong Kong stock ETFs [7] - The median return for stock ETFs was 1.52%, with a net outflow of 35.442 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -2.47% and a net inflow of 14.226 billion yuan [7] - Cross-border ETFs had a median return of 0.95% with a net inflow of 2.906 billion yuan, while commodity ETFs had a median return of 3.06% and a net inflow of 3.713 billion yuan [7] - All categories of broad-based ETFs experienced net outflows, with small-cap thematic ETFs seeing a notable outflow of 13.217 billion yuan. Financial real estate thematic ETFs had a significant net inflow of 2.053 billion yuan [7] ESG Financial Product Tracking - Two new green bonds were issued this week, with a total issuance scale of 750 million yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.27 trillion yuan and a total of 4,556 bonds issued as of February 27, 2026 [8] - There are currently 211 ESG funds in the domestic market, with a total scale of 157.639 billion yuan. The median net value changes for various ESG fund types this week were 2.27% for active equity, 2.87% for passive equity index, and 0.02% for bond ESG funds [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Silver Hua ETF (159871), which opened with a gain of 2.38% at 1.247 yuan on March 2 [1] - Major holdings in the Silver Hua ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 2.15%, and Northern Rare Earth, which increased by 1.86%, while Ganfeng Lithium saw a decline of 0.51% [1] - The performance benchmark for the Silver Hua ETF is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Silver Hua Fund Management Co., with a return of 142.96% since its inception on March 10, 2021, and a return of 0.88% over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Nonferrous Metals ETF Fund (516650), which opened with a gain of 3.57%, priced at 2.435 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the fund include Zijin Mining, which rose by 2.15%, and Northern Rare Earth, which increased by 1.86%, while Ganfeng Lithium saw a decline of 0.51% [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 135.00% since its inception on June 9, 2021, and a recent one-month return of 0.50% [1]

- The report highlights the performance of various market indices, noting that the CSI 300 Index performed well among scale indices, while the SSE Composite Index performed well among sector indices, and the CSI 500 Value Index performed well among style indices[2][6] - The market sentiment on 2026-03-02 showed 98 stocks hitting the upper limit and 24 stocks hitting the lower limit, with a sealing rate of 74% and a continuous board rate of 28%[2][13][16] - The financing balance as of 2026-02-27 was 26,519 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 173 billion yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 2.5% of the circulating market value and the financing transaction accounting for 9.7% of the market turnover[2][18][22] - The ETF with the highest premium on 2026-02-27 was the CSI 500 ETF by BOCOM, with a premium of 0.86%, while the ETF with the highest discount was the Photovoltaic ETF by Guotai, with a discount of 0.85%[3][23][25] - The median annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures over the past year were 0.68%, 3.88%, 11.15%, and 13.55%, respectively[3][29][32] - The stocks with the highest net inflows from institutional seats on the Dragon and Tiger List on 2026-03-02 were Minbao Optoelectronics, Xianglu Tungsten Industry, Baiyun Electric, China Ruilin, Cangzhou Dahua, Chuanrun Co., Ltd., Hunan Gold, Aerospace Rainbow, Zhongrun Optics, and Guohang Ocean[4][37][39] - The stocks with the highest net inflows from Northbound Trading on the Dragon and Tiger List on 2026-03-02 were Xiaocheng Technology, China Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Liande Co., Ltd., Sanfu Co., Ltd., Aerospace Rainbow, Roman Co., Ltd., Yujing Co., Ltd., Potential Hengxin, Tin Industry Co., Ltd., and Baiyun Electric[4][38][41]

Liquidity - The net inflow of leveraged funds has significantly rebounded to a historical high of approximately 785 billion CNY, compared to a net outflow of 737 billion CNY in the previous period, placing it in the 96th percentile over the past three years[6] - The issuance of equity public funds has decreased to a historical low of 15 billion CNY, down from 259 billion CNY in the previous period, representing only 21% of the three-year percentile[6] - The net inflow of southbound funds has decreased to 59 billion CNY, down from 246 billion CNY, placing it in the 25th percentile over the past three years[35] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the light industry has increased by 22 percentage points to 41%, while the coal industry has risen by 15 percentage points to 34%, and the building materials sector has increased by 14 percentage points to 76%[4] - Conversely, the medical services sector has decreased by 19 percentage points to 43%, the semiconductor industry has dropped by 17 percentage points to 20%, and the home appliance sector has fallen by 14 percentage points to 29%[4] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors have seen a net inflow of 800.9 billion CNY in the past week, a decrease of 376.1 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 32.5th percentile over the past five years[2] - The search interest for A-shares on social media has increased, indicating a rise in market trading sentiment[2] - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, with no significant style bias observed, shifting towards the new energy sector[2]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.06%[3] - The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.34%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.15%[3] - The top-performing sectors included steel (+3.37%), coal (+3.20%), and non-ferrous metals (+3.10%) while construction materials (-1.45%) and telecommunications (-1.38%) lagged behind[3] Key Events - The Central Political Bureau discussed the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing high-quality development and economic stability[5] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0% starting March 2, 2026, signaling a focus on stabilizing the RMB exchange rate[6] Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its mixed performance, with resource stocks and AI applications as key highlights[7] - Rare metals and coal sectors are anticipated to benefit from rising prices, while hardware sectors may face adjustments due to external factors[8] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong performance certainty and to be cautious of increased volatility in sector rotations[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected overseas demand, intensified geopolitical tensions, and volatility in commodity prices[9]