Group 1 - The core point of the news is the extension of the "tariff truce" between the US and China for an additional 90 days, which aims to stabilize trade relations and create a positive atmosphere for further negotiations [1][3][4] - The US will continue to suspend the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days while retaining the remaining 10% tariff, and China will also suspend its 24% tariff on US goods for the same period [1][4] - Analysts suggest that this extension indicates a phase of easing in US-China economic relations and provides more time to address unresolved issues [1][3][4] Group 2 - The recent negotiations have led to a clearer understanding of each country's demands and bottom lines, which is beneficial for controlling conflicts [4] - The extension of the tariff truce allows for continued imports of key products like electronics, clothing, and toys into the US at relatively lower tariffs, especially ahead of the critical holiday season [4][5] - Both sides are signaling a desire to reduce trade tensions, with China suspending measures against certain US entities and the US considering easing some export restrictions [5][6] Group 3 - Future negotiations are expected to focus on the core issue of tariffs, including discussions on how to achieve full or partial reductions of the suspended 24% tariffs [7] - Key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals are likely to be focal points in the upcoming talks [7] - The US may seek increased Chinese investment and procurement, while China will push for the removal of unreasonable investment and technology restrictions imposed by the US [7][8] Group 4 - Despite the "tariff truce," trade flows between the US and China have been negatively impacted, with US imports from China dropping by approximately 15% to $165 billion in the first half of the year, and US exports to China decreasing by about 20% [7][8] - China is actively diversifying its markets and optimizing its foreign trade structure to mitigate external uncertainties, which may help maintain export stability [8]

原油方面：昨日晚间（8月11日），乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，与莫迪讨论了对俄罗斯石油的制裁问 题，我们同意计划于9月在联合国大会上举行会晤并制定互访计划。据相关媒体报道，15日俄美在阿拉 斯加会谈结束后，普京将会邀请特朗普来俄罗斯参加下一轮会谈。此消息表明，俄美之间的谈判仍有诸 多不确定因素，但前景依旧向好。供应端来看，OPEC+已经确定在9月继续维持54.8万桶增产力度，且9 月将提前完成220万桶的原定增产计划。需求端来看，欧美夏季出行高峰还在继续，季节性利好因素仍 在，延缓了油价下跌速度。叠加中美关税顺利延期，减少了利空压力，短期内油价可能出现短暂反弹。 8月12日市场速览 ：1、中美关税顺利延期90日。2、特朗普在社交媒体上高调宣布，黄金不会被征收关 税。3、特朗普团队将鲍曼、杰斐逊和洛根纳入美联储主席候选人之列，有望今年秋季宣布美联储主席 人选。 技术面：昨日日线收小阳线，有一定的见底效果。1小时来看，市场仍处在下跌趋势，价格盘整至60日 均线之上，但仍在120均线下方运行，关注未来价格能否反弹，今日多空分水岭在64.50美元一线。 美元指数：据白宫有关人员透露，美国总统特朗普正在考虑让美联储两位副主 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the recent performance of precious metals, with gold rising by 1.24% and silver by 3.79% due to the easing of panic following weaker non-farm data [5] - Copper prices increased by 1.40% this week, benefiting from improved economic sentiment in the US [6] - The lithium market is experiencing a significant price surge due to potential supply constraints, with expectations of prices reaching 65,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton in the near future [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise as procurement of high-priced raw materials increases among manufacturers [8] - The rare earth market is showing signs of improvement, with exports increasing by 21.4% year-on-year in July [8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a weekly increase of 5.24%, ranking third among sectors [17] - The top five stocks in the sector this week included Huaguang New Materials and Ningbo Yunsheng [18] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper up 1.40%, aluminum up 1.69%, zinc up 3.83%, lead up 1.49%, and tin up 1.17% [20] - Precious metals also saw gains: COMEX gold up 1.24% and silver up 3.79% [20] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible copper inventory increased by 19,482 tons, while aluminum inventory rose by 2,716 tons [33]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is waiting for new direction from the US - Russia talks, and there is inventory accumulation pressure after the peak season. It is recommended to buy SC2510 out - of - the - money options on dips [2]. - For precious metals, due to the clarification of gold tariff rumors and potential market sentiment swings, it is advisable to wait patiently for pull - back opportunities [3]. - In the base metals market, prices show different trends. For example, copper prices are affected by mine resumptions and inflation indicators; aluminum prices are in short - term oscillations; zinc prices are expected to face resistance on rebounds [4][5][8]. - In the energy and chemical market, fuels face inventory and demand issues, while asphalt has limited supply pressure and potential price support [22][23]. - In the agricultural products market, the soybean and bean - related products are affected by weather, trade policies, and inventory conditions, with no clear trend yet [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to maintain a risk - preference - positive trend, and the bond market is under pressure but may show signs of stabilization [48][49]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose. After continuous declines last week, the market awaits US - Russia talks. There is inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter. A double - buy strategy for SC2510 out - of - the - money options on dips is recommended [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak demand. Singapore's inventory is high, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to shrink [22]. - **Asphalt**: August production is down. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has repair expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack spread is expected to be strong [23]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. After Trump clarified gold tariff rumors, market sentiment may swing due to upcoming events. It is recommended to wait for pull - back opportunities [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices closed lower. Some Chilean mines resumed work. The high - tariff issue between China and the US is on hold. It is advisable to hold previous short positions [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum slightly corrected. Inventory increased at the beginning of the week, and consumption is in the off - season. Short - term oscillations are expected, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory is decreasing, and the Fed's September rate - cut expectation is rising. The zinc market is expected to face resistance on rebounds, and short positions are recommended above 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals of Shanghai lead lack contradictions. Supply and demand are in a state of offsetting each other. It is advisable to hold long positions around 16,600 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in the mid - to - late stage of a rebound. It is recommended to enter short positions actively as the market returns to fundamentals [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices rose briefly. Low inventory provides support. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions at low prices [11]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea market is in the agricultural off - season. Supply is relatively abundant, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly without new positive factors [24]. - **Methanol**: Coal price increases have compressed the profit of coal - to - methanol in the northwest. Inland inventory is low and decreasing, while coastal inventory is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream restocking [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Oil prices stopped falling, and pure benzene prices oscillated. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in the mid - to - late third quarter, and it is recommended to trade the monthly spread [26]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost support is weak. Although supply decreased and demand increased slightly, the upward price drive is insufficient [27]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is supported, while the supply of polyethylene and polypropylene has limited changes. Overall, the upward price drive is insufficient [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production and weak demand. Caustic soda shows a strong performance in the short term, but there is supply pressure in the long term [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: Affected by Trump's remarks and weather, the market is in low - level oscillations. The US soybean is in good condition, and the soybean meal market is expected to oscillate without a clear trend before the tariff issue is resolved [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is optimistic in the short term, driving the soybean oil market. It is recommended to buy on dips, considering the long - term development of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the US Department of Agriculture's report and China - Canada relations. There may be an opportunity for the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal to widen [38]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures are in low - level oscillations. The market atmosphere is weak, and it may continue to be weak without policy guidance [40]. - **Pig**: The spot price of pigs is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended for industries to hedge on price rebounds [41]. - **Egg**: The egg futures market follows the logic of de - capacity through price decline. Attention should be paid to spot prices, demand in the peak season, and cold - storage egg release [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton production is expected to be stable. The domestic cotton inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate due to limited positive factors [44]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price is rising. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Wood**: The wood market's supply - demand situation is improving, and it is recommended to take a long - position approach [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp price is rising. The inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to wait and see or take light long positions on dips [47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares are at a high level with incremental trading. The risk - preference is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure but may stabilize. The yield curve is expected to steepen, and it is recommended to be cautious in taking long positions [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [10]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement three interest rate cuts within the year, which is favorable for gold prices [5]. - The gold price is projected to maintain an upward trend due to ongoing purchases by the People's Bank of China [4][5]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum is weak, but medium to long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to tighten [10]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply conditions, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but may strengthen in the long term due to supply constraints [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance with a 1-month increase of 11.5%, a 3-month increase of 21.4%, and a 12-month increase of 44.5% [3]. Precious Metals Market Data - The London gold price was $3,394.15 per ounce, up $47.30 from August 1, reflecting a 1.41% increase. The London silver price was $38.29 per ounce, up $1.80, a 4.93% increase [4][30]. Copper and Aluminum Data - LME copper closed at $9,700 per ton, up $108 from August 1, a 1.13% increase. SHFE copper closed at ¥78,460 per ton, up ¥70, a 0.09% increase [39]. - Domestic aluminum prices were ¥20,630 per ton, up ¥140 from August 1 [40]. Tin and Antimony Data - Domestic refined tin prices were ¥268,310 per ton, up ¥4,240, a 1.61% increase. Antimony prices were ¥182,500 per ton, down ¥2,000, a 1.08% decrease [41]. Recommended Stocks - For the gold industry, recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold. For copper, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Western Mining. For aluminum, recommended stocks include Shenhuo Co. and Yunnan Aluminum [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may continue to rise due to overseas mine disruptions and a warming domestic market, despite industry off - season factors. Overall, with positive macro factors, copper prices are expected to remain strong [2][52] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise as the domestic market warms up again, but pay attention to the rhythm as the market has experienced a rise and a correction, and also consider the high - level pressure in July [3][53] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - Overseas: In July, economic data consistently fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the US dollar index has continued to decline [7] - Domestic: The domestic market atmosphere has warmed up again [7] - Incident: Codelco in Chile stopped ore processing at its largest copper mine after a fatal tunnel collapse on July 31. The accident is expected to reduce copper production by about 30,000 tons per month, equivalent to a quarter of Codelco's total output [7] 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded, with a significant upward movement in the night session on Friday, and the trading volume increased [2][52] 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Continue to Decline - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, indicating a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. The domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, reflecting an expected tight supply and over - capacity in smelting as the main reasons for low TC [23] 2.3 Electrolytic Copper De - stocking Slows Down - There is information about the trends of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME), showing the situation of inventory changes [30] 2.4 Downstream Initial Stage - There is a figure showing the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries, including sectors such as refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper rods, and copper strips [34] 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded, and the trading volume increased [3][53] 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - There are figures showing the inventory of bauxite ports and the price of alumina, reflecting the situation of the upstream industrial chain [40][44] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - Both overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory show an inventory accumulation trend [43] 3.4 Downstream Initial Stage - There are figures showing the capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the average processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, reflecting the downstream situation [46][51] 4. Conclusion - Copper: With positive macro factors and an industry off - season, copper prices have stabilized and rebounded and are expected to remain strong [52] - Aluminum: As the domestic market warms up, aluminum prices may continue to rise, but pay attention to the market rhythm and the high - level pressure in July [53]

周周芝道 - 反内卷下大宗怎么看 20250810 摘要 美联储降息预期提前，流动性宽松或加速，尽管非农数据引发美股短暂 下跌，但市场迅速转向定价宽松，预示未来政策变化可能对市场产生重 要影响。 国内政策方面，预计 7 月底政治局会议后两个月内难有强劲内需政策出 台，最早或在 10 月底出现调整，美国经济数据和中美贸易谈判进展将 是关键观察点。 反内卷政策被市场解读为涨价逻辑，实则是走出通缩的重要环节，对大 宗商品市场产生显著影响，尤其国内黑色金属在长期熊市后出现反弹。 下半年大宗商品价格受海内外因素共振影响，国内政策短期内难有强刺 激，海外美联储货币政策宽松将影响全球流动性，需密切关注美国经济 数据和中美贸易谈判。 黄金市场在 5 月出现分水岭，结束 4 月牛市行情转为震荡调整，受全球 贸易框架清晰和权益市场向好影响，避险需求减弱，但中长期去美元化 逻辑仍支撑金价。 Q&A 上周全球大类资产的表现如何？ 上周全球大类资产的整体趋势是流动性驱动。中国股票市场风险偏好较高，利 率开始下降，债券市场利率也有所降低，这反映了基本面反弹和大宗商品持续 性反弹预期的降温。海外方面，美国经济软着陆的预期逐渐被流动性宽松所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and policy changes. For instance, the potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks and the uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship are key factors affecting various markets [17][44]. - In the financial market, different asset classes have different outlooks. Gold is expected to continue its oscillatory trend with increased volatility; the US dollar is predicted to remain weak in the short - term; and the US stock market may face correction risks due to the fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations [13][18][22]. - In the commodity market, each sector has its own supply - demand dynamics. For example, the油脂 market may experience short - term pullbacks but has long - term potential for long - positions; the copper market is likely to have high - level oscillations with inventory increases limiting the upside [33][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year. The gold price oscillated on Friday with increased intraday volatility. After the White House clarified that imported gold bars would not be taxed, the COMEX gold price declined to narrow the spread with London gold. The gold price is in an oscillatory range, and short - term oscillations are expected to continue with attention to correction risks [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The NATO Secretary - General is optimistic about the "Trump - Putin meeting". Nordic and Baltic leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. The US - Russia meeting in Alaska and the European stance on Ukraine make the outcome of the meeting and the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict highly uncertain, leading to the US dollar remaining weak in the short - term [14][15][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Some support maintaining the current rate due to unmet inflation targets, while others advocate for rate cuts. The market's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, and the US stock market at its current level may face correction risks [19][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The issuance of local bonds with VAT on interest started on August 8. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be in a favorable period in the first half of August, and trading - position long - holders can continue to hold their positions [23][24][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Beijing optimized its housing purchase restrictions, and the capital market is expected not to have a large - scale IPO expansion. The strengthening of the core CPI may support the stock market pricing, and it is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [28][29][31]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week was 2177500 tons, and the expected volume in the 33rd week is 2369500 tons. Multiple countries' policies may change. India may raise edible oil import tariffs, and there are rumors about the US RVO proposal. The short - term oil market may pull back, but it has long - term potential for long - positions, and it is recommended to go long on dips [32][33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA August supply - demand report to raise the US soybean yield. The US soybean market is weak, while the domestic soybean meal market is relatively strong. It is recommended to continue to focus on the development of Sino - US relations and changes in import and demand [34][35]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July, indicating weak export demand. The international sugar market is under pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. However, factors such as the low sugar - ethanol price difference and poor cane quality may limit the downside of the ICE raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also under pressure from increased imports, but the downside of the Zhengzhou sugar price is limited, and it is not recommended to short aggressively [39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US tariff policy and the uncertainty in the US - China trade relationship increase market concerns. The ICE cotton price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Domestically, the cotton supply is tight before the new cotton harvest, and there may be a small - scale "rush to buy" at the beginning of the new cotton season. The 1 - month contract may rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to the US - China trade policy [44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China has completed the ultra - low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity. The inventory of five major steel products is increasing, and the demand has not changed significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the limited impact of environmental protection restrictions on supply and the difficulty of the spot price to follow the increase [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory has increased again at a high level, and the price difference with corn starch has narrowed. There is no driving force for the price difference to strengthen in the supply - demand situation, and the price difference in the 09 contract may be affected by the new corn harvest in North China [48]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions remains low. The market's demand for imported corn substitutes is expected to decline, and the old - crop spot price is likely to weaken. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop corn and pay attention to the weather [49][50]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two factories of a Shanxi alumina enterprise were affected by ore supply. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US is interested in investing in Pakistan's copper mining. Chile's Codelco partially restarted a copper mine. Macro factors may provide short - term support for the copper price, but the increase in global inventory will limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [54][57]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. The spot trading is light, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term polysilicon price may range between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton, and it may reach over 60000 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 9 - 12 positive arbitrage [58][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some production capacities in Xinjiang have resumed production. The supply may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon may lead to inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, with risks from large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [61][62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mining site will stop production. The production loss will lead to inventory reduction in the third - quarter balance sheet. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider the inter - month positive arbitrage [63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production is expected to increase, while the secondary lead production is affected by sewage inspections. The demand is in the pre - peak season waiting to be verified. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low prices and pay attention to the positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [65][66]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, while the domestic zinc supply is high. The demand is stable in the primary processing sector. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions for single - side trading, consider the medium - term positive arbitrage, and wait and see for the domestic - foreign trading [67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The macro - environment provides some support, but the supply is expected to be in surplus. The short - term nickel price is unlikely to decline significantly, and it is recommended to focus on short - term trading opportunities and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - term [69][70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price oscillated last week. The carbon price may be supported by the buying demand before the compliance deadline, but the weak demand may limit the upside. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [71][72]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count decreased. India's state - owned refineries are招标 to purchase non - Russian crude oil. The oil price has fallen to a new low since early June due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The short - term oil price volatility is expected to increase [73][74][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The Shandong caustic soda market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The caustic soda spot price is starting to weaken, but the downside is limited due to factors such as low liquid chlorine prices and strong coal prices [77][78]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market has limited adjustments. The futures price is oscillating. The anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [79]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is weakly oscillating. The futures price is down, and the trading is light. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the macro - environment and coal prices provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - A South Korean PX plant is under maintenance, and Japanese PX plants are restarting. The PX price is affected by downstream demand, PTA spot price, and other factors, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - A Northeast PTA plant is shutting down. The weaving industry is in the off - season, and the PTA supply and demand have little contradiction. The PTA price mainly follows the crude oil price and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's second - quarter earnings were strong. The SCFI index has declined. The shipping companies are accelerating price cuts, and the supply pressure is increasing. The freight rate may continue to decline, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the market is boosted by sentiment [84][87].

Group 1 - The domestic market is expected to maintain a strong performance due to the accumulation of internal and external favorable factors, including a weak U.S. labor market and supportive domestic policies [5][9] - The small-cap style is currently dominating the market, with momentum factors yielding positive returns and a significant excess return from large transaction combinations [5][9] - The light rare earth supply is expected to be limited due to the lack of new mining quota information and a decrease in tungsten quotas, impacting the industry positively [6][10] Group 2 - The combined copper inventory of LME and COMEX has reached its highest level since October 2018, indicating a shift in inventory dynamics [6][10] - The average price of live pigs in China has decreased by 4.33% week-on-week, reflecting a strong supply and weak demand in the market [7][10] - Changshu Bank reported a revenue of 6.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, indicating robust financial performance [7][10] Group 3 - Huahong Semiconductor's revenue for Q2 2025 was $566 million, showing an 18.3% year-on-year increase, driven by higher wafer shipments [7][10]