2025 年 5 月 1 日 总量研究 关税滞胀效应显现，美国经济增速转负 ——2025 年一季度美国经济数据点评 | | 要点 | | --- | --- | | 作者 | | | | 事件： | | 分析师：高瑞东 | 2025 年 4 月 30 日，美国经济分析局公布 2025 年一季度 GDP 数据初值： | | 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 | 【1】一季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值-0.3%，预期+0.3%，前值+2.4%； | | gaoruidong@ebscn.com | 【2】一季度实际个人消费支出季率初值+1.8%，预期+1.2%，前值+4.0%； | | 联系人：周欣平 | | | 010-57378026 | 【3】一季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值+3.5%，预期+3.5%，前值+2.6%。 | | zhouxinping@ebscn.com | | | 相关研报 | 核心观点： | | 投资增速放缓，美国经济边际降温——2024 | | | 年四季度美国经济数据点评（2025-01- | 美国一季度 GDP 环比增速转负，消费环比增速 ...

Fundraising Activities - In April 2023, a total of 28 fundraising activities were reported, indicating a vibrant investment environment [3] - The "Lilly Asia VI Fund" has been established, becoming the largest market-oriented fundraising biopharmaceutical VC fund in recent years, with a total commitment exceeding RMB 40 billion [5] - Prologis launched its first data center income fund, raising approximately RMB 2.6 billion, marking a significant entry into the data center investment space [7] - The "Kaihui Future Fund" was established in collaboration with L'Oréal and the Shanghai Jing'an District government, focusing on the evolving beauty market in China [8] - A fund initiated by Anhui entrepreneurs raised RMB 3 billion to invest in local science and technology enterprises [10] - Blackstone's latest European real estate fund raised €9.8 billion (approximately $10.6 billion), setting a record for third-party capital commitments in Europe [11] - The "Sanofi-Kaihui Pharmaceutical Innovation Fund" was established with a management scale of approximately RMB 2 billion, focusing on clinical-stage innovative drug pipelines [14] - The "Hubei Highway Development Fund" was launched with a total scale of RMB 30 billion, aimed at supporting modern transportation systems [16] - The Shanghai Biopharmaceutical M&A Fund completed its first closing with a scale of RMB 5 billion, supporting the high-quality development of the biopharmaceutical industry [18] - Eurazeo Capital V successfully raised approximately €3 billion, focusing on high-growth sectors such as technology-enabled business services and healthcare [20] New Fund Establishments - The "Zero One Venture" announced the completion of a new RMB 500 million fund, focusing on intelligent manufacturing and cross-border ventures [22] - The "Hongyi Investment" established a fund in Yixing with a first closing amount of RMB 606 million, targeting new energy and new materials [24] - The "Shaanxi Financial and High-tech Investment Fund" completed its second closing, focusing on semiconductor and AI sectors with a total scale of RMB 1.198 billion [26] - The "Pudong Venture Capital Fund" was launched with a target scale of RMB 1 billion, focusing on the biopharmaceutical industry [28] - Wuxi announced a market-oriented AI industry fund with a total scale of RMB 1 billion to support AI development [30] - The "Changfei Angel Fund" was launched with a total scale of RMB 600 million, focusing on optoelectronic information and AI sectors [32] - The "Low-altitude Economy Fund" in Sichuan was established to invest in eVTOL manufacturing, marking the province's first fund in this area [34] - The "Fangxi Purple Peak Venture Capital Fund" was registered, focusing on technology transfer and innovation in Hefei [36] - The "Yaan Chuan Business Emerging Industry Fund" was established with a registered scale of RMB 100 million, targeting seed and angel investments [39] - The "Wuhan University of Technology Innovation Fund" was launched with an initial fundraising scale of RMB 1 billion [41] Strategic Collaborations - The "AI Angel Fund" was launched by Shanghai Jiao Tong University, focusing on early-stage AI startups with a total scale of RMB 300 million [42] - The "Conch Private Equity Fund" was established, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as new materials and renewable energy [44] - The "Nongyin AIC Fund" was established in Tianjin, focusing on new generation information technology and intelligent manufacturing [56] - The "Hunan Gongrong Dici Venture Capital Fund" was registered, marking the first AIC venture capital fund in Hunan with a scale of RMB 1 billion [58] - The "Qingdao AIC Equity Investment Fund" was established, marking the first AIC fund in the city, with a focus on various strategic emerging industries [60]

远东资信首席宏观研究员张林对经济观察报表示，2025年一季度经济增长5.4%，超出市场预期，政治 局会议对于当前经济工作较为有信心，措辞较为乐观。然而，会议也提到外部冲击加大，要求强化底线 思维，做好预案。所谓底线思维，一方面是要对外部风险的严峻性有充分的认知，另一方面是要采取对 冲政策，不能让经济运行下调幅度过大。 中诚信国际研究院执行院长袁海霞认为，此次政治局会议是国际贸易形势变化后的首次政治局会议，对 当前市场预期和后续经济工作安排具有重要的信号意义。中国一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，供需两端均 有所改善，反映出当前宏观经济延续了去年四季度以来持续向好的态势。但随着4月国际贸易环境的变 化，外需不确定性增加。会议指出，"我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响 加大"，这也意味着高层更加重视外部环境变化带来的不确定性和冲击。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，会议对外部冲击有了更为清晰的定性，即"外部环境急剧变化"。为 此，要"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，同时"同国际社会一道，积极维护多边主义，反对单边霸 凌行径"。这意味着面对4月初美国实施的超高水平"对等关税"，中国不会选择妥协退 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall A-share market is expected to experience a decline in net profit for 2024, with a projected decrease of 3.0% for the entire market, 9.0% for the financial sector, and 14.2% for the non-financial sector, primarily due to significant impairment losses in the fourth quarter of 2024, particularly in the real estate and photovoltaic industries [1][2][3] Profit Growth - In 2024, the A-share market's net profit is forecasted to decline by 3.0%, with the financial sector showing a growth of 9.0% and the non-financial sector declining by 14.2%. The non-financial sector's revenue is expected to decrease slightly by 1%, with a significant drop in profit margins compared to 2023 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a rebound in net profit for the A-share market, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% for the entire market, 2.9% for the financial sector, and 4.2% for the non-financial sector, indicating a recovery in downstream industries [3][4] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-shares has remained stable, marking 15 consecutive quarters of decline since Q2 2021. The marginal improvement in net profit margins is offset by a significant decline in asset turnover rates [1][15] - Industries such as electronics, home appliances, non-bank financials, and agriculture have shown consecutive improvements in ROE over the past two quarters [15][23] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Non-financial capital expenditure has been in negative growth for four consecutive quarters, but new economy sectors are seeing a rebound in capital expenditure growth. The total assets of non-financial enterprises have stabilized, with a notable increase in prepayments [2][16] - The free cash flow to equity ratio for non-financial companies has reached a historical high, supporting an increase in dividend payout ratios to 45% in 2024, with the dividend yield for the CSI 300 rising to 3.2% [2][18] Industry Performance - The first quarter of 2025 has highlighted strong performance in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, certain export chains, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), with significant year-on-year profit growth in these areas [3][4] - The agricultural sector has shown remarkable recovery, with a profit growth of 2541.6% due to low base effects, while non-bank financials have benefited from improved capital market conditions, achieving a profit growth of 48.7% [2][4] Market Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that the low point of the profit downturn cycle has been surpassed, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariff policies on corporate fundamentals in the second quarter of 2025 [2][38] - The market is advised to seek opportunities in sectors with recovering demand and low tariff impacts, particularly in AI-related industries and companies with strong cash flows that are less exposed to external demand [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting the performance of different sectors and the outlook for corporate earnings in the coming years. It emphasizes the importance of valuation and earnings growth as key drivers for market movements. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index saw slight declines, while small-cap stocks experienced gains [2][3] - Value-style stocks, such as banks, faced significant declines, whereas growth-style stocks saw increases [4] - Hong Kong stocks overall rose, with technology stocks leading the gains [5][6] Valuation Insights - After a brief decline in early April, the market has rebounded, returning to a normal valuation range [7] - Many stocks are currently undervalued, suggesting limited downside potential [10] - Institutional investors, including state-owned entities, tend to buy heavily when the market dips, further reducing downside risk [11] Earnings Growth Outlook - For 2024, A-share market earnings are expected to decline slightly by about 2% compared to 2023 [19] - In the first quarter of 2025, earnings are projected to grow by approximately 3-4%, marking the first annual improvement since 2022 [20] - Sectors such as internet and high-end manufacturing are expected to maintain stable earnings growth [21] Sector-Specific Performance - Traditional industries like finance, consumption, and utilities have seen modest earnings growth in recent years [22] - The pharmaceutical sector, which experienced significant growth during the pandemic, is expected to recover in late 2024 and early 2025 [23] - The real estate sector continues to struggle with declining earnings, although the rate of decline is slowing [23] Economic Factors and Market Dynamics - The article notes potential uncertainties, such as the impact of Trump's tariff policies on export-oriented industries [24] - If earnings growth continues in the second and third quarters, the economy may gradually recover from its current low phase, opening up more market upside [24] - Historically, strong economic years have coincided with market peaks, suggesting that low periods may offer better valuation opportunities [24] Investment Tools and Features - A new feature in the "Today Star" mini-program allows users to view real-time star ratings and set custom alerts for specific star levels [25][26][28]

故事来源：风物长宜 文章整理：落尘 2018年那个台风肆虐的夜晚，我浑身湿透地站在银行ATM机前，手里攥着被雨水泡皱的基金单子。屏幕上刺眼的绿光显示， 我送外卖攒下的两万多块钱， 在医疗基金里已经亏了快四成 。手机突然震动，租房群里弹出消息："902房月底再不交租就换锁"——那正是我住了三年的小单间。 在便利店啃着冷饭团时，我发现货架上的基金广告写着"年化收益30%"，和外卖平台"冲单奖500元"的标语一样闪着诱人的光。把基金亏损页面设成手机壁 纸时，水珠从屏幕滑落，把基金代码晕染得像急诊室的"ICU"指示灯。 住在城中村的五年里， 我的外卖箱成了移动书房 ： 有次给基金经理送沙拉，他翻着我箱子里折角的《指数基金指南》说：" 你知道这个医疗基金70%的钱都押在十家公司吗？ "见我发愣，他指着外卖箱打比 方：" 就像你同时接十个订单，七个都要送到同一栋没电梯的老楼。 " 那天夜里，我对照着基金持仓明细，发现重仓的某医药公司，正是上个月暴雨天给他们实验室送过二十杯咖啡的地方。嗦着猪脚粉时突然开窍： 这和外卖 平台把大雨天补贴从五块降到两块，不都是一个道理？ 箱盖上贴着" 今日目标：读完《小狗钱钱》第十章 " 夹层 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 22,008, up 0.16% year-to-date increase of 29.10% [1] - The US markets continued to rebound, with the Dow Jones up 0.75% and the S&P 500 up 0.58%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 7.53% and 16.58% respectively [1][3] Industry Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector reported Q1 2025 earnings, with SANY Heavy Industry exceeding expectations with a 56% year-on-year profit increase, driven by an 18% revenue growth [4] - The pharmaceutical company WuXi AppTec reported a strong Q1 2025, with revenue up 21% to 9.65 billion yuan and a non-IFRS net profit increase of 40% to 2.68 billion yuan [4][6] - Mindray Medical's revenue for 2024 was 36.7 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase, but faced challenges in the domestic market with a 12.1% decline in Q1 2025 revenue [7][8] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec maintained its full-year guidance despite macro uncertainties, expecting a 10-15% revenue growth in its continuing operations for 2025 [4][6] - Mindray Medical's overseas revenue grew by 21.3% in 2024, accounting for 44.7% of total revenue, indicating strong international market performance [7] - Luckin Coffee reported a 41% year-on-year sales increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong same-store sales growth and rapid store expansion [11][12] Investment Ratings - SANY Heavy Industry is rated as a "Buy" with a focus on its excavator business cycle and overseas growth potential [4] - WuXi AppTec is also rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 77.22 yuan, reflecting confidence in its growth despite external challenges [6] - Mindray Medical is rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 249.19 yuan, anticipating recovery in domestic sales in the latter half of 2025 [8]

4月30日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数集体高开，消费板块持续活跃。 相关ETF方面，截至发稿，港股消费ETF（159735）开盘后震荡走强，现涨0.77%。成分股中，周大福 涨超2%，蒙牛乳业、百威亚太、银河娱乐、美团-W等股涨幅居前。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加权，以反映港股通内消费类股票的整体 表现。 消息面上，据国家发展改革委微信公众号，近日，国家发展改革委已印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方 追加下达今年第二批810亿元超长期特别国债资金，继续大力支持消费品以旧换新。下一步，国家发展 改革委将充分发挥"两新"部际协调机制作用，强化统筹推进和跟踪调度，督促各地各有关部门加快已拨 资金审核兑付，切实减轻企业垫资压力，确保真金白银优惠直达消费者，推动消费品以旧换新政策发挥 更大效果。 中信证券表示，今年以来我国消费政策全面升级创新，近期细分领域政策相继出台，政策体系逐步完 善。近日国家税务总局发布离境退税管理办法修订细则，推动前期离境退税"即买即退"推广政策落地。 根据我们测算，乐观假 ...

// 热点聚焦 // 5、 一季度5399家公司披露季报：营收16.83万亿元（同比降0.38%），归母净利润1.49万亿元，同比增长3.47%。4078家盈利（占比76%），2956家净利 润正增长（占比55%），其中764家增幅超100%、474家增50%-100%、1718家低增速（<50%）。负增长企业降至2443家（45.6%），盈利结构持续优 化。 // 国内宏观 // 1、 商务部就波音公司飞回拟交付飞机答记者问指出，美方挥舞关税大棒严重冲击全球产业链供应链稳定，扰乱国际航空运输市场，很多企业无法 开展正常贸易投资活动，中国的相关航空公司、美国波音公司都深受其害。中方愿继续支持两国企业开展正常的商业合作，希美方能倾听企业的呼 声，为企业正常贸易投资活动创造稳定可预期的环境。 1、 国家主席习近平在上海考察时强调，上海承担着建设国际科技创新中心的历史使命，要抢抓机遇，以服务国家战略为牵引，不断增强科技创新策源功 能和高端产业引领功能，加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地。 2、 外交部回应"美财长称关税战升级的责任在中方"：中方多次阐明关税战、贸易战没有赢家；这场关税战是美方发起的，如果美方想通过 ...

深圳的信心来源于何处？从记者向有关各方采集的信息来看，主要来源于对经济运行趋势的判断。多项 关键指标反映，深圳经济正在回暖，高质量发展向新向好。 具体来看，首先，实体经济增长稳健。 一季度，深圳的第二产业增速为3.7%，规模以上工业增加值增长4.2%。这个增速看起来不快，但要知 道，这是在当前外部挑战显著增加的情况下取得的，并且，是基于深圳作为"工业第一城"的超大工业体 量。同时，4.2%的规上工业增速，比1-2月份加快了1.6个百分点。 从记者向有关各方采集的信息来看，主要来源于对经济运行趋势的判断。多项关键指标反映，深圳经济 正在回暖，高质量发展向新向好。 贸易战当前，作为去年全国"外贸第一城"的深圳，其一季度经济数据备受外界关注。 4月28日下午，深圳市统计局发布的数据显示，一季度深圳实现地区生产总值（GDP）8950.49亿元，按 不变价格计算，同比（下同）增长5.2%。其中，第一产业增加值4.86亿元，增长7.2%；第二产业增加值 2951.44亿元，增长3.7%；第三产业增加值5994.19亿元，增长6.0%。 这一GDP增速低于年度预期目标（5.5%）。并且，一季度货物进出口总额9901.04亿 ...